we're back again and talking about NFL week 9 best bets and some college football. it's a big week 9 in the league and we're getting some money so join us
we're back again and talking about NFL week 9 best bets and some college football. it's a big week 9 in the league and we're getting some money so join us
What's up y'all? Welcome back to the odds are podcasts. It is Friday, november 3rd. It is Gabriel and Christopher's always. Um. We're back to wrap up our discussion about NFL week nine. Give you a little bit of analysis on some NBA and college football picks as well. Uh, gabe, what's up man?
Speaker 2:Yeah, um, we just uh were off that discussing there's a night game Titan Steelers um kind of went how we thought it was going to go, um, but Titan or Steelers were once again able to um pull out the win. Um, it seems like every game we get at, the Steelers just adds more data points to prove that they're ass. But, um, they keep adding wins to the, to the record. So, um, yeah team that's very frustrated to bet on and against.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, yesterday ended up being okay for me. I bet, um, I had Steelers or uh, titans and a bunch of teasers at like eight and a half and nine, so that those are still alive. Um, that leg cleared. Uh, I had a big position on Najee Harris over his rushing attempts. He cleared that and then, uh, the plus three didn't hit.
Speaker 1:I also took a Tajais peers over two and a half receptions as the backup running back for the Titans, and, um, they were just like trying to find ways to like get him involved in the passing game. So that was also a nice little hit for me, um, and then also last night, uh, draftkings had this promo where they it was like when Binyana over 14 and a half points and it was just even odds, um, and so I put a unit and a half on that and that cleared it in like the first half. So yesterday ended up being a pretty good betting day for me. Um, I had a couple of parlays that were risk free that I like needed like one more Derek Henry rush and that would have been like a nine unit swing, um, but instead it was just nothing, cause it was risk free, but still can't complain Nice.
Speaker 2:Yeah, um, I, I was on time just like a small play Um. So that didn't work out. Um had a little culture black shin, but I also live at the Suns. When I saw that they're getting their ass kicked by like 30 in the first half yeah, I didn't watch that game at all, but I was like they're all surely, like you know, put it together and they really didn't, until like the fourth quarter, um. And once I saw that like they made it a close game, I was like all right, cool, that bet's going to cash. But uh, when we pulled it out and God damn man, uh, not only is he rookie the year, he looks like an MVP candidate, yeah.
Speaker 1:He's, he's different man. Um, I started to build a little bit of a futures portfolio um on NBA and I took scoot and then the odds moved down for that and I was like, okay, like I should probably buy when B, and then I forgot. I forgot to um, which was dumb, because when B was at like plus two or like two to one, I think at one point, like preseason um, and I should have just bought in and now that opportunity is probably closed. But yeah, man, he, he looks crazy.
Speaker 2:Yeah, his odds are in the minus.
Speaker 1:Uh, it's good, I'm person is ass yeah.
Speaker 1:He looks bad. Yeah, he looks real bad, um, all right. Well, let's get back to the NFL, um, and, as always, we are working with signup experts to bring you all the best promos in sports. So, whenever y'all are ready to sign up for a new DFS platform or a sports book platform, go to signup expertscom forward, slash odds, uh. That website will geolocate to your area and show you all the best promos again for DFS or sports books that are available to you.
Speaker 1:Um, so, yeah, man, the NFL week nine. We covered the majority of the slate in our um first episode, uh, that we published a couple of days ago. We got the remainder of the slate now and I think we were at uh, I don't think we covered bucks, texans or Rams Packers, right, yep? Um, let's start with Rams Packers, um, cause this is a game I actually have action on. So, um, rams Packers the Rams coming off a dismantling at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. Um, they are now three and five. They've really kind of started to slide a little bit after a nice start to their season. Um, matthew Stafford got hurt in that game and I think he's questionable, if not doubtful, for this game Sunday. Uh, they are three point underdogs on the road facing a two and five Packers team. That kind of got fucked up by the Vikings last week at home.
Speaker 1:So, um, yeah, I bought this. When I uh saw the three and a half pot, I just kind of liked the number there. Um, I don't know if the Packers should be favorite in many games, even against a kind of bad Rams team. So I decided to take the three and a half, especially with uncertainty at Stafford, like if he plays, uh, this probably gets closer to like maybe plus one or a pick them. So I just decided to kind of take a small roll of the dice on that three and a half, given that it was crossing a key number. I also threw them in a teaser, um, so got them at plus nine in that teaser. But that's it for me in this one, and I think I'm kind of happy to just avoid this.
Speaker 2:Yeah, um, I mean, I'm with you if Stafford plays. The three is absolutely a bet for me, but I think the fact that the Packers even favorite here is telling us that Stafford's probably not going to play right. Um, I think we did. Was it just a couple of days ago where we were starting to see sixes in the market? Um, for this, um, imagining something else?
Speaker 1:Um, yeah, I don't think I ever saw six on this one. I've been watching it relatively closely.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Um I was thinking of different came on the board, maybe Um, but yeah, um, cause, like power ratings, this Rams team, um, you know, kind of a downward spiral. I still have them like slightly below league average. Um, and a Stafford plays. That's really carrying the waiting, cause this thing falls without Stafford. This is one of the worst teams in football. Um, and the Packers, you know they're one of the worst teams in football too. So I get your point.
Speaker 2:Take the three and a half, um, it's just if Stafford doesn't play, you know it's, this is ugly. But the Rams, you know they could probably still win this with a backup too. Cause the Packers, just I don't get their first half struggles too, cause it seems like they start to figure things out in the second half. I don't know if it's how defenses are starting to play them, but there's no rhythm to their game in the first half. Um, it's I don't know if it's Jordan loves obsession with the deep ball or that's what, like the first play calls are like for seem to do, but it just doesn't allow them to like move the ball consistently and by the time their offense gets some rhythm, they're out of games. Um, yeah, um. So I could not bet the Packers, no matter what, even if Stafford's out. Um, I'd only be looking at the Rams, but I can't get myself to do it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's one of those things too. We're like, you know, like the advantage that you have as a better um against the books is just your ability to not play. You know what I mean, um. And so this is kind of a perfect example of that, where it's like nothing really jumps off the page here and there are so many questions, um, that it's kind of just not worth it.
Speaker 1:At the three, again, I liked the three and a half just because I was getting the hook and that was early in the week. That was like on Monday or Tuesday when I played that. So that was before practice reports were even coming out, um. But now we've seen three practice reports in a row where Stafford, uh did not participate. So I think Saturday, or tomorrow rather, is going to be a pretty important day. Uh, if he, if he's even a limited participant, I would feel really good about the three and a half, and if he's a limited participant, I would probably say sprinkle the three Um and definitely take it in a teaser uh, just because I don't see this Packers team blowing anybody out by two possessions. But if he does not participate, then I would think you're safe to assume he's going to be out, and I would probably just stay away entirely.
Speaker 2:Is this something where he's still going to be limited, though If he does play, like he's not going to be, I mean, I guess clearly he's not going to be a hundred percent right if he's doubtful right now with a mintry, but like if he's able to practice tomorrow, I guess? What? Have you seen? Any projections of like what you can expect for Stafford's performance?
Speaker 1:Well, I mean, he played the rest of he. I think he heard his thumb last week in like the second quarter, so he did play the rest of the game with it. Um, so I don't know. I don't know man, but it also just want to say he is questionable and not doubtful. Um, at least that's what they have him officially listed at right now. Yep, yeah, um, yeah. So I don't know. I think there probably would be some performance dip, um, and I imagine re-injury risk is probably really high with that as well. But yeah, um, so that's that game.
Speaker 1:I don't know, it's nothing really too exciting. Neither of these teams are playoff contenders in my mind. Um, neither of these teams are too interesting. I'm starting to think that LaFleur is a little bit overrated. Um, there have just been kind of some coaching decisions and style there that I haven't quite liked and I just wonder how much of their success was really dependent upon, like, a very good offensive line, aaron Rodgers and Devonte Adams, like they had all three of those things in their favor for years and now we're starting to see a little bit of the cracks.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it is tough too, because now he has almost nothing to work with Right, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:A busted up offensive line.
Speaker 2:Aaron Jones is their best offensive weapon and he looks just cooked Um the thing is that when I was short in love I'm like God damn, this kid has an arm, but like he can only throw it for 50 yards, that's it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and, in fairness, his receivers haven't been doing him any justice. They drop a lot of balls. They're not very good. Um, I know you were kind of high on Christian Watson, I think, both last season and coming into this year, but I think he's just a bomb man like.
Speaker 2:I don't think he's a bomb but he's not like a reliable, like wide receiver one, right, he's still like. I mean, he's a huge athlete and he's explosive, but he's more like a wool fuller than like a Deontre Hopkins, right yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I just feel like, with the draft stock that they use and the way that they kind of built that team, you need him to be more of a wide receiver one than just like a deep threat, though yeah, um, I just have not been too impressed by what I've seen from him. Um, but yeah, I mean, these teams are teams are both pretty bad, um, so there's that Um. Did we talk about Cardinals Browns last time?
Speaker 1:I think we did, but yeah, so I actually have some. I have some new action there and these. This line has moved dramatically and I've seen that I think Kyler Murray is gonna play in this one.
Speaker 2:I thought they gain and said he's gonna decide like on the plane. But I think they're probably.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think I was probably gonna play which is weird because this line has moved and I think Sean. Watson's gonna play. Is that why? Um, yeah, so Kyler Murray working toward debut as Cardinals decide, but it looks like he's questionable for game nine with leaning towards playing and, yeah, looks like the Sean is for sure in it's not funny that Sean Watson versus Kyler Murray and it's a 38 point total yeah, wild, absolutely wild, how times have changed.
Speaker 1:But yesterday, before that Kyler news came out, I put one little sprinkle on Arizona under eight and a half points at three to one with Clayton tune. I was thinking there's a chance that they could get shut out or just put up maybe like three points or even just two field goals, and so I was kind of thinking like I like the value at three to one, the under eight and a half so, but now with the Sean or also kind of like this is this is very qualitative, but I kind of like a revenge spot for the Browns D. Like I feel like they've kind of probably gotten to their standards, embarrassed, over the last two weeks, and I feel like coming out now against this what would have been a Clayton tune lead Cardinals team, I could have just seen them just really throttling this Cardinals team. But now with Kyler I don't know honestly.
Speaker 1:Kyler first came back after an ACL. Like maybe that's like it's definitely an upgrade over Clayton tune, because you don't know what you're getting with him. But who knows man, like it'll be curious to see. Like a big part of Kyler's game obviously is his mobility and from what I've been reading from you know Twitter doctors, that's gonna take a little bit of a hit in your hands.
Speaker 2:First came back yeah, I mean, it's also been like almost a full year for Kyler, right, like he did get that full recovery time versus a lot of athletes who nowadays it's been closer like nine months. But yeah, I'm still not expecting like a good, like passing performance for Kyler too, and it's tough that they're making do this against the Browns. But but, still like. If you're backing the Cardinals, which I am not, I don't think I'll have a bet in this game.
Speaker 1:I definitely prefer having Kyler there than Clayton to Josh Dobbs and the other yeah, yep, yeah, the only action, other action I have on this I got the under 37 and a half. I just think both of these teams are not gonna score many points. I think the best unit in this game, bar none, is the Browns D. So with that being true, I'll go back to backing the under in a Browns game, just hoping that that hits. And then I still have a teaser in this one teasing Cardinals or the, the Browns down from seven and a half to one and a half, so more or less a pick them there, and I feel pretty good about that as well, yes, especially with that line movement.
Speaker 1:Okay, so those ones. Bucks, texans, I don't think we got to that. No, bucks are three and four, coming off of a loss in Buffalo in which they covered and, again, if Chris Godwin would have just kind of spotted the ball, had a chance to tie the game up and even win. They are now either two and a half or three points, depending on the book that you have underdogs on the road against a Houston Texans team that is coming off a loss against the Carolina Panthers, giving them their first win of the season in what was a pretty low scoring ugly game, the only action I have on this one.
Speaker 1:Actually, I have two bets here. I have the Bucks in a teaser teasing them from two and a half to eight and a half, and I have the Titans against the spread at two and a half. Like the teaser in this one, it's a low point total game. I think the best unit between these two teams is the Bucks defense, and I think Baker and that offense have shown that they are not a run first team which lends themselves to, you know, being able to kind of hang around via their passing game. So I like them to potentially make some splashes here and move the ball, keep it competitive, but at the end of the day I do think Houston will win yeah, I'm on Houston.
Speaker 2:I was on them last week. The numbers showed there's value against the Panthers but there's a lot of people betting the Panthers and I think the main angle is that when less teams off a buy perform really well and the Texans, you know they're off a buy too, but they had, you know, a successful start to their season. So two different teams coming out of buy with probably different motivations, and the Panthers are able to get the win there. But I think there's still value with the Texans again because I mean we're seeing week after week that this Bucks team is still not very good and even that defense is pretty overrated. Like I think it's hard to find an argument that 30 defense actually much better or really better than the Texans defense period.
Speaker 2:Like this line, I can still get a two and a half, which I'm probably gonna bet after we're recording. That suggests that these teams are pretty damn close power ratings wise and I don't see that. I think Texans are closer to league average and the Bucks are one of the worst teams in the league. So I'll take the Texans minus two and a half. I think this should be four if the Texans are able to take care of business last week versus the Panthers, in a game that they still, you know, like yardage, where it's yardage wise and yards per play. I think they they were more successful than the Panthers yep, yep, I'm with you.
Speaker 1:I think it's the better team at home off a ugly loss. Honestly, I think you get the better quarterback and the better coach in this one too, so I'm happy to lay the points, especially because it's under that key number.
Speaker 2:I did see some things with the Texans like offensive coordinator and what they're doing with CJ Stroud, like this last week versus the Panthers I think I said like 18 other 24 first downs were runs.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it doesn't seem like they have the most modern offense there for CJ Stroud yeah, also they're like early down past percentage, I think is like the lowest in the league which maybe last week.
Speaker 2:The argument is like the Panthers run defense is terrible, right, so you want to take it right, but the Texans can't run the ball too. So yeah, I feel like there's a negative for coaching for both these sides.
Speaker 1:Honestly, I don't know, man, I D'Amico. You have to remember D'Amico is a defensive minded coach. So yeah, I think usually what I've noticed with defensive oriented coaches is like when it comes to offense, they really just turn the play calling over to the OSE and just like don't do anything with it. So I think D'Amico has this team ready to go, and Bulls is just kind of a non-factor for me, where I think D'Amico is probably a plus from everything we've seen so far at least. Yeah, honestly, bulls is a negative for me yeah, but yeah, I like the Texans here.
Speaker 2:I don't know what the circle lines is, but this is two and a half, I'll take that yep, all right, let's see.
Speaker 1:So next one up that we didn't cover. I was kind of going to this list here. Commanders has moved definitely off the three and a half, so hope you got that, hope anyone listening got that, because it's already now down to two and a half at some books, which is probably about closer to where it should be. One we didn't talk about Bears Saints. This one is one that I have negative CLV on, so that's fun. I jumped on the Bears at plus seven. I just saw the key number there and I was like, oh yeah, I'll rock that. This got up to. I think I saw as long as like nine and a half at one book, maybe even ten, definitely nine, nine and a half, and again now sitting at eight and a half at every book that I can see pretty low point total on this one as well, 41.
Speaker 1:Bears are two and six coming off a nasty loss against the Chargers who blew them out, which is surprising because the Chargers don't plot anyone. The Saints are four and four coming off of a win against the Colts last week. Yeah, and the Saints offense the Saints offense has started to click a little bit more. They're still not like that good, but I think they've been putting up a lot of points in their last few games are both points and yards. I think last week they put up over 500 yards against the Colts. So this is an offense that's starting to turn things around a little bit and on the other side of the ball that defense is still looking like a top ten unit. So I think the Bears probably really struggle here. Baygent looks like he is, you know, a division two undrafted guy last week and I doubt that changes this week against this defense.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Um, I agree. Like it was different scenarios Bayesian versus a Raiders team that couldn't do anything and Bayesian didn't have to really do anything because they could rely on the running game. So his stats look okay. The Chargers game too, like the Chargers offense looked great and the force Bayesian to do more and I think you know he still looked like he didn't, look like you did not belong there. The rest of the Bears offense would, I think, look just as bad too, but he had some decent deep balls that looked good. There was a couple drops right. There was that big drop touchdown early in the game.
Speaker 1:Yeah, there was the Vellis Jones one and then there was the Darnell Mooney one that got like Called back or got called down or something like that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but I still like don't think he's that bad. So I mean, like, with that, I just maybe a slight power ratings decrease for the Bears, the Saints, after their performances last couple weeks, or specifically last week, because they did not look good against Jaguars, but the softens they're still not moving the ball consistently but they were able to put up their best showing of the season slight power ratings upgrade for them. I See them, you know, closer to top 10 than a league average team, but I still don't think they're elite. With that, though, like I can't get this lined over a touchdown, which I would say that's a decent bet to take an eight and a half. I Just it's hard for me to stomach because it's, you know, bajint in New Orleans, which is usually supposed to be hostile. I don't. I don't really know what the Saints home field advantage looks like as of late, but that's just the fear I have, but like if I had to make a bet, I would take the Bears.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I I feel very stupid about having the seven here. I just hate that. That'll be my only action on this game. I'm not really Looking to get too much more exposure in either direction. If, for whatever reason, I this. This might be a slightly stale statistic, but under Dennis Allen the Saints, as a favorite, are Like horrendous against the spread I Haven't. I honestly I'm not gonna make anything up. I just remember seeing it and being Shocked at how bad they were. So at this long of a favorite I really don't like it. If I can get this live at a shorter number on Sunday, I probably will take it, especially given I have the plus seven. If I can get this like at a field goal, I probably go ahead and take that. But honestly, nothing, nothing that I'm clamoring to take here.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I'm with you. I'll think about the Bears. It might be something I placed last minute on Sunday because honestly I don't. I don't really love the board this week and, numbers wise, it seems like the best value and, you know, the stinkiest teams always Present a lot of line value, yep.
Speaker 1:All right. Next one up Colts Panthers. Colts are two and a half point favorites on the road in Carolina. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Saints. They are now three and five. The Panthers, on the other hand, again are two and a half point underdogs. They are one and six this season, getting their first win at home last week on a last-minute field goal against the pan or the Texans.
Speaker 1:This is another game that I have no action on and I think I might just leave it that way. This might be a good teaser spot, but also I could see the Colts getting, or the Panthers just getting, blown out here. The Colts run the ball really well and Gardner Mincio has actually looked like, dare I say, good, especially against really tough defenses, like I think, since he's been the starting quarterback or in his start. So far he's played the Ravens, the Browns, the Saints and one other team and he has looked comparable and I was going against the Panthers team. That has been absolutely tragic against the run and again, that's something that Colts do well here. So I think I lean Colts and I also don't have a play here because I Don't quite have a feel for this Panthers team, especially now that Reich has turned over, play calling duties and I think Bryce young is a little bit better in the last few weeks, especially come in with a buy.
Speaker 2:So yeah, so I saw that right, but their offense was terrible last week I Think wasn't last week the most yards that young had thrown for all season?
Speaker 1:Jesus.
Speaker 2:Christ, seriously here. Let me see this.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think it was like 240 and I think that was like his best game.
Speaker 2:To you had 235. Yeah, that was a second best game. They had 224 yards of total offense.
Speaker 1:That's wild. How do you throw for 235, but they have Less than that?
Speaker 2:they have negative rushing. Are they coming? Sack yardage because it shows his passing arches 180 and then no, they threw for 235. Yeah, so when you look at like team stats, the passing yardage is just lower. I don't know if they count sacks. You took six sacks. I'm not gonna count sacks, that number.
Speaker 1:Okay, but yeah, I.
Speaker 2:Mean, yeah, I would not consider. I'm not gonna put any value on the coaching change here. Yeah, I'm With you, though I think I would take the cold set minus two, minus two and a half, like I've just I'm not a big Panthers believer, haven't been all year, but against them last week to finally be mean to us. I Mean it's a revenge game, right for Frank. Right His players are gonna get up for that, I don't know. Honestly, I Think I strongly lean the cults here too and I think the strength of schedule does matter, for, like these teams that Gardner Mintzhu has played, he like some games. He's looked bad some games. You know we're seeing 30 points showings, but it's been a tough schedule for him. Yeah, I think I strongly lean the Colts because it's two points spread. It'd be surprising for the Panthers when back back games.
Speaker 1:Yeah, agreed, I think this is actually gonna be a play for me, because I bet this moves to and maybe even through the field goal by Sunday, like I'd be very surprised if this gets any shorter, so I might go ahead and have a small, like one, one and a half unit play on on the Colts. I just think that's the better team, I think. I think the Colts defense is not that good, but I also think that they're good enough to make Bryce young have a hard time, because it doesn't take that much. So, yeah, I think I think I'm there with you.
Speaker 2:Yeah, um, it's better offense, better defense, better coach, better quarterback, right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yep, kind of all around Better receivers, better offensive weapons.
Speaker 2:Actually, Miss receivers is the probably the only debatable one. I think I would take the Panthers receivers. That's such a bad take. I know you might be something like the receiver room 30 and 32, but it's Michael Pittman. Adam feelings having a much better season than Michael Pittman.
Speaker 1:I'm feeling is about Josh Downs has been ballin man. Josh Downs is so much better than, honestly, josh Downs is probably the best receiver in this game.
Speaker 2:I mean, I still think it's like both these receiver rooms are bottom of near the bottom of league. But yeah, I'll give that to you, but I think the Colts are. But anyways, just putting hair.
Speaker 1:Yeah, but I lean Colts, I think. Probably take it now, if you like, the two and if you like, if you like Colts here, take the two and a half, because it's probably not getting any lower. Yes, I will be doing that. Um, giants Raiders, I don't think we talked about that either. Yeah, we have not.
Speaker 2:Yeah, do you want to? Uh, briefly, I have. The only action I have is I tease the.
Speaker 1:Giants when they were at three. Um, because the Raiders are not beating anybody by nine, um, there shouldn't even probably be favored to win a game, um, but here they are favored. Uh, Daniel Jones is back. Jimmy Garoppolo got benched today before his first game back, jimmy Garoppolo got benched today before his birthday. Max Crosby is saying the n-word on the Raiders social media. Uh, devonte Adams is still a Raider, even though he looks like he wanted to hurt himself On monday night or sunday night football or whenever that game was Um so yeah, uh. Or monday night football um, so yeah, man, it's. It's sad times out here for both these teams. I think Mike mcdaniels is gone. Uh, brian dable looks kind of like a joke. Um, so I don't know. This is an ugly one.
Speaker 2:Uh yeah, the Giants have to win this game. I feel like it'd be kind of embarrassing if they don't. But I don't know, there is like that air coach fear too, where this is still like a bad Giants team. And yeah, I guess it's probably only makes sense to tease. Um, if you can get Giants more than a half or two, tease that. But I can't see any other bet to make here. It'd be.
Speaker 2:It'd be tough for me to say I want to bet the Raiders minus one, um, just because they have an interim coach.
Speaker 1:Yep, um, we talked about cowboys, eagles, briefly. That moved at one point to three and a half at points bet and I jumped on that like a motherfucker. I jumped on that so quick. Um, that was a two and a half unit play for me when it got to Two and, uh, three and a half. Um, and no other action there for me since then. Anything for you.
Speaker 2:I still haven't bet it. Um, the number still told me cowboys, which is probably what I'll take, but I keep thinking about, just like the Like, the sample size of dat going on the road and beating a good team. It's just non-existent. Um, so I mean, I'm betting on the cowboys plus three and I'm hoping to see something I've never seen before. Yeah, yep.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I agree it's scary. Um, I do think it's the right side, though, but the start of the season?
Speaker 2:I don't know. I feel like I just I bet this game you know, like multiple times over the years, and it's always the same thing where after the game, twitter is just going to be roasting Dak Prescott, people are going to say Joan Hertz, mvp candidate. Um, I feel like we deserve a three and a half. I do too. I'm going to wait for the three and a half because I'm really not compelled enough to take it at three.
Speaker 1:It just might not get there, though. Yeah, it's very well it might not get there. Sorry, I swallowed some water wrong, you're okay. Yeah, I don't know, man, I like the three and a half, but anything shorter than that. It was kind of hard for me to play.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Because, like you know, with a three I need a win to cash that ticket.
Speaker 1:So yeah, um, yeah, I think waiting for the three and a half is not a bad idea. It just might not come, though is the only problem.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and I mean if this game goes to two and a half, though like I really don't see that happening.
Speaker 1:And if that happens, I might take the Eagles?
Speaker 2:I don't know.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think if you don't get the three and a half before the game starts, just wait, I can always play it live.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you can always play it live. The Cowboys will most likely go down at some point and if, for whatever reason, they come out hot, take a lead. That's like that's back the Eagles season. Yeah, if you can get the Eagles at a shorter number, or even as another dog, yeah. Um, especially with the style of play for the Cowboys, we're like they're going to continue to be conservative even if they have a lead, or especially if they have a lead. So, um, yeah, that's that game. Um, bill's bangles we talked about already, right, I don't think we did it.
Speaker 2:Oh no, we did. We did touch on a little bit.
Speaker 1:Yeah, um, nothing new here for me. Still have Buffalo and a teaser, still have a lot of stuff. I've buffalo at plus three. Still have the over 48 and a half getting good CLV on both the spread and the total, so that feels nice. Um, yeah, one and a half to two and a half, with a two in there as well. Um, so this is kind of all over the place. I'll be curious to see what this looks like closer to kick. Um, but yeah, I'm excited for this game. I think it's going to be a shootout.
Speaker 2:Honestly, um is Josh Allen good to go? I thought there were some injuries or concerns and I was surprised that we didn't see a three again.
Speaker 1:Um, I think Josh Allen is fine. He was dealing with like a shoulder injury. Uh yeah, he was from like two, three weeks ago, but I don't think he has a designation right now?
Speaker 1:Oh yeah, he said he will play Um yeah, he has no, no injury designation after practice today. Um, it was that same injury that Derek Carr had, where it was like week one. After it you saw a massive performance dip. The second week you saw a slight improvement, but still a performance dip, and then by week three it's basically fine. Um, oh right, yeah, that's what Josh Allen had. So last week was week two, so this week I think he's probably back to back to normal.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think I saw him as practice, but they said he's he was a full participant today.
Speaker 1:Um, yeah, I'm not worried about Josh Allen health this week.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Um, I guess my only concern, or concern as someone who wants to back the bills, is, um, like, even though I'm still not a believer in what the Bengals performance over the last couple of weeks has looked like, I don't think that's going to be predictive of what they're going to look like the rest of the season. I don't. I don't think they're still one of these top five teams, but this bill's defense has not been good, as of late, the secondary has been getting cooked. Um, I think they uh lead the league and like explosive plays allowed. Um, the Bengals haven't been the most explosive offense this far this year. Um, so this is probably a matchup I'll be excited for tomorrow. Chase too Um, so, yeah, I probably do lean shootout. Um, yeah, I just I really want the three to take the bills. Like, I feel like there's enough, like a narrative wise, and um, the last time these two teams played, too, for us to get bills plus three on the road. Um, so I think I'm going to wait.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I don't mind waiting here. I think that's probably a good decision. Um, all right, last one on the slate. I'm just not excited to talk or think about this game. I really I have no action and I don't really care. I'll probably have something come Monday, but um, monday night football is charted, you think? So, yeah, I, any game that has Zach Wilson in the man I'm just not that interested in.
Speaker 2:Um, I mean the the Jets defense has been causing hell to quarterbacks in New York lately. Um, we saw Josh Allen show up and week one look terrible. It was the worst game of the year. We saw my homes look terrible. We saw Jalen Hertz have four picks, Um, and now Justin Herbert off the best game of seasons trying to pull up Um yeah, it's just, I don't get excited for a game in which, like, the highlights are defense and Zach Wilson.
Speaker 1:you know that just doesn't get me out of bed in the morning, um, but yeah, nonetheless. Uh, chargers are coming off a nice win against the bears. They blew them out on Sunday night football last week. You know they are three and four and they're laying three and a half points on the road against the Jets, who are four and three, coming off a somehow win against the Giants.
Speaker 1:I'm still f**king pissed about that game, because the Giants were covering for the whole game up until the last second, even with f**king Danny DeVito or whatever the f**k his name is in it quarterback, um, and you know, uh, vegas was like let them, you know, let them kick the field goal because, you know, apparently now you can spot your own f**king ball, uh, which is outrageous. Um, so, yeah, brian Dable decides to kick the field goal. Of course Graham Gano can't hit, sh**, misses it. Uh, zach Wilson finds a way to double his passing output in the last 20 seconds of the game, gets them in a field goal position, they tie and then get the ball back and OT and win.
Speaker 1:Uh, so that's how last week went Another three and a half point home underdogs. I kind of like that just because, again, like I mentioned earlier, the Chargers just outside of the Bears blowout um, refused to uh you know, win a game by more than angle digits. And on the opposite side of the ball, the Jets, like you mentioned, have one of the best defenses in the NFL and have been giving people hell. Um, I think I lean the three and a half of the Jets, but no action yet for me. Yeah, I.
Speaker 2:I think I strongly lean the three and a half of the Jets. I mean, numbers wise, I still see it closer to like two and a half Um. But I think, like, like my numbers are telling me to bet it and I'm pretty low on the Jets, I think um relative to consensus, and I think I'm relatively high on the Chargers too, Um comparison to the market. So I think all these singles are telling me like this is a great bet and like, who have the Chargers beaten by over three this year? Um, the Vikings in that game where they um snuck out the win. The Raiders and, uh, aiden O'Connell's first start and it was only a seven point win Um. And then the.
Speaker 2:Bears game Um, I don't trust his charges. Team on the road, I mean the Jets. You get the better quarterback, sorry, jesus Christ. You get um the better coach, the better defense, um, and two teams that have performed like pretty similarly this year. Um, so I'll take the home dog, or three and a half.
Speaker 1:Nice. Um, all right, man, let's get into our week nine. Uh, against the spread contest picks. Shall we let's do it. Uh, all right, I think this week let's do, let's, let's each pick two that we like, like, like, and you get unanimous kind of selection, um, or like unilateral decision rather, and then let's pick one that we collectively like. Does that feel good? Yeah, that sounds good. Um, okay, uh, yep, and if this is the one that we unilaterally like, that's totally fine. Uh, chiefs, one and a half, okay.
Speaker 1:Um do you also like that too.
Speaker 2:Just the travel shit. That's like making me uh get off the chiefs and not want to bet um on them.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that makes me nervous too, Um, but also like I feel like the sample size for that is relatively small. Like I feel like people didn't even just because these, like travel games are kind of a relatively new-ish feature, you know, like people haven't even really been paying attention to travel schedules and how that affects performance and especially against the spread, like there's just not that much data on it. So I think there's definitely a narrative there right now, um, particularly because the teams who have been getting there earlier this season have been winning, but those teams are also generally better coached and better teams. Um, so I do think there is some value there, but I don't know how much to assign to it. So my cap on this game still remains the same. My homes as an underdog are, uh, you know, a short favorite of going against a team that sucks against good quality teams and bounce back spot. So I'm still going to ride with the chiefs.
Speaker 2:Let's do it All right. Uh, that counts as one of yours. All right, my first one um Texans minus two and a half.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that was going to be one of mine right.
Speaker 2:That can be a that can be a consensus one too, but I imagine we sell off a couple out here.
Speaker 1:Um, you can go for that one, because that's not my favorite. Um, but yeah, you can have that one.
Speaker 2:Um all right.
Speaker 1:What you got next. This is a nasty week. Um, I'm good. I'm gonna need one more question. Oh, that's good, I will go manders three, unless you want that to be consensus.
Speaker 2:I would have taken it, but I feel like we're pretty aligned this week. Let's, let's, let's take a man.
Speaker 1:We don't have to do the two to one thing. Yeah, okay, let's do. I think we both like Texans. I think we both are cool with chiefs Commanders. I feel like we're good. Yep, I would have liked to have the hook on here, um, but yeah, I honestly think. I think that they're. I think they'll win this game, like, I think they're a very live dog. Yeah, I think so too Um one other one that jumps off the page to me is Colts two and a half.
Speaker 2:I like the Colts. I'll do that. Cool, all right, and the last two I'm eyeing.
Speaker 1:We already got four, right? Yeah, I'm just saying okay, got you.
Speaker 2:All right, so I'll pick two and you can eliminate one Um Jets plus three and a half or Seax plus six.
Speaker 1:Um, I think I prefer jets. Um, I I. The only reason being is the Ravens just have blowout potential in every week. Um, especially also, I've been seeing this that circulating around I don't know how much of a narrative it is versus like actually being worth something. But uh, lamar against NFC teams is like 18 and one or something. Um, and a lot of the speculation I've heard of that is just like you, you can't really prepare for him if you don't see him very often because of just like how crazy he is. Um, so also, I just I think both of these teams are slightly fraudulent, but I think the Seahawks are more fraudulent than the Ravens. Um, yeah, I agree too.
Speaker 2:Even though I think there's value with the Seahawks this week, they're not a team that I want to like bet on consistently um through the rest of the season.
Speaker 1:No, like if this were closer to like seven, seven and a half, I would. I would really like it. But the six is just a little little, too, too tough for me. Yeah Cause it's just like a one unit play for me. So I'm not dying to make it a contest pick, but Jets, I think you're going to be able to make it a contest pick.
Speaker 2:But Jets, Jets, I like, I like getting through that, the three and a half to a game that I think should be under the field goal.
Speaker 1:Yup, especially in one where, like, I just don't think the Chargers have shown us anything enough to the point where I'd be like, oh yeah, like that team will win. You know what I mean? Like it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Jets win here in a very similar fashion to how they won last week, like keeping at a very low scoring game and then a couple of things just break right for them. Uh, you get another coach that I just don't trust, that could make some really stupid calls at the end of the game and the Jets could take advantage of that and win. So, um, yeah, I like Jets. Three and a half it's nasty, but I think again we're at that time of the year.
Speaker 2:So, all right, we got the card, um, and then what's that? Yeah, um, so we got, uh, chiefs, chiefs minus one and a half, texans minus two and a half, commanders plus three. Colts minus two and a half, jets plus three and a half.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yep.
Speaker 2:All right, um, and I got a wrap up pretty quickly. But uh, we got plenty of NBA on tonight. Uh, we got the in season tournament starting. Get any bets there?
Speaker 1:Um, you see, uh, bones Highland was like I don't even know what that is, man yeah.
Speaker 2:Um, I wanted to bet on the nuggets night but honestly, I think just because it's the in season turn, it's making me stay away. Man, like I just don't know how like seriously the player is going to take it the coaches. Now Southern nuggets are playing on the blue court too. There's just way too many variables are like right, I'll, I'll pass this one.
Speaker 1:Um yeah, there's nothing here. Um, this is actually my first time looking at the lines. Uh, cabs Pacers already started. Knicks bucks already started. Uh, nets bulls I would probably play the nets plus four.
Speaker 1:Uh, I just the bulls are not serious. Um, and I could see this team, just like the nets team, giving them a hard time. Um, it's just a bunch of long athletic dudes that can play defense and you have one guy that can potentially put up like 40. Um, so I could. I think there's probably some value on the nets. Uh, warriors Thunder. If everyone's playing for the dubs, I probably lean dubs. Um, cause when they have all those guys out there, they're actually pretty good. Um, heat eight and a half that's a lot of points for this heat team. That's kind of ass. But this wizard's team is it's literally the Harlem Globetrotters. Um, they're a joke. So I probably lean heat, but also not enough to play it. I'm still getting my feet under me for the for the NBA, so there's nothing here that I like. I might sit down and do some research, take some dart throws, but I'm not too interested in anything tonight.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I'm with you, maybe I'll. I'll lie that and see, but um, yeah, nothing too compelling. Um, call it a couple of times. I got a couple of games that I'm targeting Um. I see, there's plenty of games that I'm targeting, but the main ones I'm looking at.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:So I want to take LSU plus three and a half. This is Bama. Um, I have national championship tickets on both these teams and um, basically, winner of this is going to make the SEC championship game against Georgia, and that game should be closer than I think people think. Uh, this LSU offense is the best offense in the country by margin.
Speaker 2:Um, it's just their defense is terrible, but a Bama offense isn't that good enough, for I don't think LSU will have fears about like, actually not getting stops, which has been their problem and their losses. Um, I think they'll be able to get the couple stops they need and their offense, even against an elite Bama defense, is going to be able to put up 30 points, um on the road, um, so I think LSU can pull it out. But there's three and a half set, plenty of books, and I like that Nice.
Speaker 1:Um, I'll probably be with you on that. I have just not. I haven't watched much college football this year, but what I've seen from the Bama team I do not like.
Speaker 2:Yeah, um, it's, it's a lot of inconsistency. Um, their defense is still um pretty lights out, but yeah, this I mean the offense probably going to look good against an LSU defense. That is, it's one of, like, the worst defenses in um, like major college football, but man, that offense is, it's perfect Um yeah, all right.
Speaker 1:What else you got?
Speaker 2:Uh, this is nasty, but I kind of like to just bet this at like. Usc plus three versus Washington. Um, I mean, both of these teams haven't looked right over the last couple of weeks. Uh, usc, they almost lost their third straight game to Cal. They had to pull out a double digit comeback in the second half. Um, like, my only fear is that, like, maybe this team has quit. I don't know that, because I think there's still plenty of value here. As an dog and I'm willing to bet it I think there's a nothing.
Speaker 2:There's plenty of faults in Washington that, uh, people are probably ignoring after that big win against Oregon. They haven't been able to run the ball at all. Uh, they can't stop the run at all. Usc can run right over them and I think USC will put up 40 points here. Um, and Pennex has looked a little bit off the last few weeks and I just don't think that's good momentum going into this USC game where USC has nothing to lose. Like their playoff hopes are over. Uh, washington's still undefeated. There's a ton of pressure on the team that hasn't felt this pressure before. Um, so I like the plus three Nice.
Speaker 1:Anything else. Any other favorites Um?
Speaker 2:that's about it. Um, probably more in action, but that's all I really want to talk about.
Speaker 1:Nice, All right man.
Speaker 2:Well, um, oh, here's one, this one. I don't know if you can bet on this and it'll, but Iowa versus Northwestern that total is 31. Um, I think it's the lowest major college ball total in like recorded history and it's weird, but I would like to take the favor here. I think Iowa minus five is a good bet.
Speaker 1:Wait, can you not bet on college football teams that are in your state?
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think that's a Illinois thing, oh interesting. I didn't know about that, um, that's weird.
Speaker 1:Um, wow, 31 point total, God damn.
Speaker 2:That's like a high school. Yeah, Um, crazy, Okay, Cool. I think there's some value with Iowa. I mean their offense has been terrible, but they they finally hired, fired the, the offense coordinator, who's the coach's son. So I mean there should be some change, and when you're that bad, you know some change has to be good. I think um and their defense.
Speaker 1:I think it's still good enough, even if their offenses.
Speaker 2:Looks that bad to take care of Northwestern team on the run, nice I don't hate it.
Speaker 1:I feel like I'm definitely a proponent of um, yeah, I don't know. I I have not been betting much college football these years and we're watching much, so, um, that might be a good one to just like take an edible and just watch those teams do nothing, Pump the ball back.
Speaker 1:I mean, there's better games to watch? Yeah, for sure. Um, all right, man. Well, that'll wrap it up for us again. Go check out signup expertscom for slash odds. Uh, if you are looking to get set up on a new sports book or daily fantasy sports platform, um, again, it'll geolocate to you, show you the best offers available in your state and, yeah, great way to go ahead and get some promo money. So that wraps up our NFL week nine preview with some college football talks and college basketball talk. Again, go hit signup expertscom for slash odds and then we will be back next week.