The Sportsbook Sharps

Betting Against the Odds: NFL Division Winners You Shouldn't Ignore

• Andy Reust • Season 4 • Episode 2

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Football season has arrived, and we're kicking things off with a special guest! My wife Darby joins the podcast, bringing her credentials as a five-time fantasy football champion and reigning league winner to our NFL season preview. Though she doesn't consider herself a gambler, her player knowledge and football insights prove invaluable as we break down each NFL division.

The conversation takes several fascinating turns, from Bill Belichick's embarrassing collegiate coaching debut to the controversial Micah Parsons trade that has Cowboys fans fuming. Jerry Jones lands squarely on our "Stay Frosty" hot seat list for his handling of the situation, with Darby providing damning statistics about Dallas's playoff drought and questionable front office decisions.

Our division-by-division breakdown reveals several betting opportunities where oddsmakers might have it wrong. We both agree the Commanders at +210 represent excellent value in the NFC East, while disagreeing on whether the Packers' acquisition of Micah Parsons makes them favorites in the North. When examining long-shot Super Bowl contenders, the Steelers at 45-1 emerge as an intriguing option with Aaron Rodgers potentially revitalizing the franchise.

The episode culminates with our complete Week 1 picks against the spread, where we find surprising consensus on most matchups, including taking the Eagles over Cowboys in Thursday's opener and the Chiefs over Chargers in Friday's Brazil game. Our locks of the week feature the Buccaneers (-2) against rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and the Lions (+1.5) to upset the Packers at Lambeau.

Whether you're building your betting card for the weekend or simply preparing for fantasy football matchups, this comprehensive NFL preview provides the perfect foundation for the season ahead. Follow us on social media @TSS_gambling for more content, including our popular dog picks coming to TikTok this weekend!

Andy:

Hey everybody. Today is Thursday, september 4th and the NFL season is here. It's Thursday, thursday night. Football is on. Tonight. I got my Cowboys on, even though I'm not super excited about them this season. But we'll get into all that later. I want to just get to our special guest for this week. We have, for the first time ever, a new guest to the podcast. This week I have invited the one and only my wife, darby Royst, here.

Darby:

Hi everybody.

Andy:

Now Darby, would you consider yourself an expert gambler?

Darby:

Absolutely not.

Andy:

Absolutely not. Would you consider yourself a casual gambler?

Darby:

No.

Andy:

Absolutely not, absolutely not. Yourself a casual gambler? No, absolutely not. But do you consider yourself an expert in all things?

Darby:

nfl I wouldn't say expert, but I'm I know my staff pretty well.

Andy:

I think, listen, this is a podcast where we try to toot our own horn, here. So then, yes I'm the best. We're first off. You're on the number one sports gambling podcast in liberty township. I don't know if you knew that or not. We are consistently ranked number one in Liberty Township gambling podcast, so welcome to the show. But yeah, you love the NFL. Who's your favorite team?

Darby:

The Denver Broncos.

Andy:

That's right, and what was I going to ask? So you don't really gamble a lot, but you are the current fantasy football champion Is that correct, that's correct. And how many times have you won fantasy football leagues? Rough guess. Overall so many that you can't even remember. Huh, it's that many.

Darby:

With um.

Andy:

Just in general.

Darby:

Maybe five.

Andy:

Five time, five time Fantasy football champ in the building here today and it knows quite a lot about nfl, uh, follows it, watches all the games. So knows her stuff here on the nfl. So we are digging deep into our bag of tricks this year. Season four of the sportsbook sharps and I thought who better to do an nfl preview than somebody that won the fantasy football league last year has consistently beat me in fantasy football and I know that doesn't translate one-to-one with gambling, but you know who are good players, you know who are good teams, things like that. So even if you don't know like who's a better line jacksonville minus three and a half or atlanta plus two or whatever that kind of stuff you still can give some advice on it. And last year for the first time you did was that the first year or is that the second year? We did it.

Darby:

We did that picks league oh, I think that was the second year. That was the second year.

Andy:

Okay, so you are every week making every single game, picking it against the spread, that's true. So that's a lot more than I can say for other gamblers. Now, I don't advocate that everybody spend money gambling on every single game every week. You'd be in the poor house probably. Uh, the way it went. I think I would have been a little ahead, and I think you would have been ahead too, if we bet like ten dollars each time. Uh, we were slightly ahead last year. I don't remember the first year that we did it, but uh yeah uh, and you can't be any worse than our gambling group.

Andy:

So we have a gambling group of eight here on the podcast. Uh, last week, three and five the gambling group went. We lost money big time. So, absolutely terrible start to the season. John steve and I hit our locks. Uh, most of the locks were at least close, uh, with the exception of one, uh, boise state lock from uncle mike. That was terrible. They got blown out. That game was awful and it was one of those oddball times because they were kicking off the season. It was at 5.30 Eastern on Thursday last week, so it was like the only game on and they just got drilled. So, speaking of blowouts, though, I wanted to spend a few seconds on your boy, bill Belichick. He moved. He's in the college game now. If you missed it, in the offseason Belichick left the NFL and moved on to Greener Pastures in North Carolina. He is the current UNC Tar Heels head coach and they got blown out. I think it was what 48 to 14 or something like that. It was pretty bad.

Darby:

It was the age gap of him and his girlfriend, 30.

Andy:

it was smaller than that, wasn't it?

Darby:

no, it was the exact age gap it was the four years, was it?

Andy:

I thought the age gap was bigger no that can't be right. She's 24. 24 plus 34.

Darby:

44?

Andy:

No, that doesn't make sense. Yeah, no, I think you read some fake news on that. I think, there's almost a 47-year gap.

Darby:

It was 41 to 7, and that was their age gap. Maybe that's what?

Andy:

Oh, okay, during the game. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Okay, maybe that was it. I can't remember, details aren't important. All we know is bill belichick. Uh, my favorite thing about this well, two things about this game was my favorite one.

Andy:

Everybody on social media that tar heels went up seven nothing. I know you weren't watching the game, but they, they went up seven, nothing, everybody. And their brother got their twitter fingers out and was oh, this is why bill bella checks a genius. Bill bella check this. And it's funny because as you're scrolling through it later in the game, sometimes twitter's out of order now, so those things pop up when the game's like 34 to seven at halftime and stuff like that. So you're reading it and you're seeing some of these talking heads on the sports channel saying that this is exactly what they expected and this, that. And I'm reading it as I'm watching them down 34 and seven and I'm like, oh, oh, this was from an hour ago, okay, so they went up seven, nothing.

Andy:

Everybody went to Twitter and then they did not score again until very late in the game they made they got 14. I think it was 48-14 was the final score. It was just dreadful. But then the other funny thing, as we talked about the 71-year-old I think that's his age, 71, bill Belichick is dating a 24-year-old and she was on the sideline during the game. I don't know if you saw that on social media, but they clips of it where she like walks up to him during the game and says something to him and then kind of walks away and people were going wild on social media with that she's probably making sure she was still getting free tuition right, exactly, a lot of people have talked about her sorority and like how bill had goes to the sorority parties, all these different things, like just a bunch of jokes.

Andy:

I don't think she's actually enrolled at unc, but the jokes are there and, uh, it's a weird, very weird relationship. So, uh, yeah, I just wanted to bring that up and uh, if you're thinking about betting on unc, maybe don't do it. They did not look prepared at all. I think belichick's probably just mailing it in and getting this paycheck. But we will see about that. Mailing it in and getting this paycheck, but we will see about that.

Andy:

All right, I just want to talk real quick about the two biggest college games Texas at OSU, clemson at LSU. They both won by seven, the two teams, but ESPN, in their bout of genius, they had multiple people voting for LSU ahead of Ohio State as the number one team in all the land. Now, I don't get it. I get OSU was at home and they only scored 14 points or whatever, but they won by seven, same as LSU did, and LSU didn't score that many more points. They scored 17. So if you beat the number one team, you should get all the votes for number one if you're the number one team, you should get all the votes for number one. If you're that close, like if it's a big upset, if it's like number 24 beats number one, what I get the vote splitting, whatever. But when you're the number three team and you take care of business and beat them as soundly as they did I know 14 to seven doesn't sound like it was soundly that game was never really in doubt. Arch Manning looked terrible at quarterback. He did not look like a Manning, it was terrible. He was throwing it like weird sidearm throws, all sorts of stuff. So ESPN, get your stuff straight. And OSU is clearly the number one team until they lose a game Like that's ridiculous that you would even think LSU is better. We don't know anything about this Clemson team, if they're going to be any good or not. So that's just crazy. I think that's so flawed. I just wanted to talk about that.

Andy:

And then, lastly, the one thing I wanted to talk about from a gambling perspective the Lee Corso sendoff, of course, famously on college game day. He retired after this weekend and I didn't even think about this until I started to see it later in the day, but he made six picks on college game day. He famously Darby's looking at me like I'm not 100% who this Lee Corso guy is. She knows who Lee Corso is, but she doesn't watch college game day every Saturday like I do. I don't know how dumb am I for not thinking of this.

Andy:

All six of his picks. I should have bet them all first off and then I also should have bundled them up into a parlay and bet it, because the football gods always smile on things like this. All six games cover or won, so he picks just who's going to win the game. All six of them. And then the headgear pick. For his 431st headgear pick he picked Brutus the Buckeye, ohio State's mascot. He was 287 and 144 all-time in headgear picks. So yeah, next time somebody big retires like that. Just a mental note for yourself If they're an analyst or something and they're picking games, you should probably bet the games that they're doing. So but yeah, congrats to Lee Corso in his retirement. I think he's 90 or 91 years old.

Andy:

So a couple of NFL rule changes. All right, we're done with college for now we're going to jump into the NFL. Just some really minor changes here. Darby, overtime possession rule change I don't even know if you remember they were different. The NFL has a problem with some of their rules. They always had to flash them up and stuff.

Andy:

But in playoff overtime both teams were guaranteed the ball, even if somebody scored a touchdown In regular overtime. In the regular season that wasn't the case, so the first team that got the ball went down and got a touchdown. The game was over and so they ended up changing that. So now the regular season, if the team gets the ball, goes down and scores a touchdown, the other team still gets one shot at it to try and tie it up with a touchdown. There was actually 16 overtime games last year. I was surprised by that. I didn't expect there to be that many. Some replay changes. I don't know what do you think about this. One Darby Replay official can now overturn penalties like a face mask, a horse collar tripping or hits to the head.

Darby:

Don't you think this is just going to open it up to a lot of interpretation. It is so. That doesn't include challenges like it used to with the whole Saints debacle where they threw a challenge.

Andy:

Oh for yeah, what was that in the end zone? They called something.

Darby:

It was a playoff game.

Andy:

It was holding.

Darby:

No, it would have been pass interference, pass interference.

Andy:

They didn't call it.

Darby:

They did not call it, so they're not going to throw the challenge flag now for these. It's just that they're not no, no, no.

Andy:

This is overturning of penalties.

Darby:

That's what I'm asking. The coaches are not going to throw a challenge flag.

Andy:

New York is going to come down and say you need to review this for these they still have challenge flags. Oh, I know they still have, okay, okay. But I'm asking specifically about yes. Yes, new York can come in and say hey, that that didn't look like a face mask, we need to look at it again. It's only on assessed penalties. So right now, like you know, this happens every Sunday. They call a face mask penalty and then they slow it down and show the replay Guy isn't anywhere near the face mask, the guy's head just turned or whatever, and you're like oh, they can't review a penalty, so now they can.

Darby:

I feel like there's more missed calls than there are.

Andy:

I agree, I agree, but you're not going to look at the missed ones. So now, when you see the face mask or whatever mask or whatever, you can't review that, right. So I don't think this really changes. That's a good point. So now that they know, it can be reviewed, or they're gonna just start popping flags off right there, right, we're gonna end up with four hour, five hour games, hmm. And then this other thing, the Hawkeye technology. Hd cameras are used to determine the ball's location for first downs replacing the chain crew. Any thoughts on this one?

Darby:

I like the chain crew. I don't like that they're doing the Hawkeye thing.

Andy:

I don't like this at all. The chain crew will still be there, kind of as like what do you call it? Like sentimental reasons, like they're not really there, like if something goes wrong with the Hawkeye thing, they're still there, but they'll be on the sidelines, so players will still be running over them and stuff like that that we're accustomed to, but now the first downs are gonna be spotted. I mean, that's something I didn't even notice. They were doing it in the preseason, but I didn't notice it why didn't either?

Andy:

I had no idea, so maybe we won't even notice it, but I like the chain gang too.

Darby:

I'm a little sad that they're being this place, the guy that makes sure Sean McVeigh doesn't run into that, the chain crew, the hold back guy.

Andy:

I don't know. Yeah, are they costing other jobs? Yeah, we're losing. Hold back guys, I don't know. Beats me all right. That's it for the rule changes. Not a lot of rule changes. This year they did want to ban the tush push I don't remember if you saw that, but that did not pass as a vote. Now we're going to move into our stay frosty segment. Now, darby, did you make a stay frosty? Do you have anybody you want to stay frosty? Oh, she's looking at me. I will go first. So stay frosty.

Andy:

For the newer viewers here, this is our like hot seat. Who's a? What head coach or GM or somebody's on the hot seat? So I'm gonna put up Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer. He just got absolutely demolished at FSU last weekend after going nine and four in his first year. They're starting the season in Alabama 0-1. Now their upcoming two games. They have LA, louisiana, monroe and Wisconsin. So they're probably going to go 2-1.

Andy:

But I think I looked ahead at their schedule. I think they lose at Georgia. I think they lose at USC. I think they lose LSU game at home. I think they lose at Tennessee at home and I think, maybe, maybe they lose to Oklahoma. I think they lose LSU game at home. I think they lose the Tennessee at home and I think, maybe, maybe they lose to Oklahoma. We'll see Oklahoma sometimes fake good the Okies. So we'll see Sooners the Sooners. Oklahoma plays Michigan this weekend, so we'll get a good idea if that Oklahoma team's any good. But this could be a 6-6 year for Alabama. If they go 6-6, he's fired. There's no way they're going to let that happen in Alabama.

Andy:

Nick Saban won six titles with Bama and his worst season was his very first season in 2007. They went 7-6 that year. After that, he never lost four games in the 17 seasons. He was there as a head coach. After that, he never lost four games in the 17 seasons. He was there as a head coach. So that is why I am putting Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer up on Stay Frosty, stay Frosty, kalen. All right, darby.

Darby:

Now let's hear it. My Stay Frosty is Jerry Jones.

Andy:

Oh no.

Darby:

Jerry Jones is the owner of the Dallas Cowboys and I'm putting him on the hot seat because of this old Micah Parsons debacle. So Micah Parsons, he's just a great player. He's going to be in the hall of fame and Jerry Jones is acting like it was. You know he is literal say. Our reasoning was that it was simply numbers. So, on my safe Rossi, I decided to give him a few numbers to consider he has only made four playoff appearances since 2000 the year 2000 there's.

Darby:

It's been 30 years since they won their last Super Bowl win. And then I mean, can we count the number of angry fans there's going to be? There's too many to count.

Andy:

Too many what.

Darby:

Too many to count of angry fans.

Andy:

Angry fans oh yeah.

Darby:

That whole situation was not handled well and Michael Parsons I'm sorry was just totally disrespected and the whole thing. But I think Jerry Jones has runs his team from top to bottom and he's a micro manager and his number of I mean just errors in the whole Michael Parsons situation is awful and so I'm putting him on the hot seat because or I'm sorry- the stay frosty because I think until Jerry Jones is gone, I just do not see the Cowboys doing anything, because he makes all the decisions.

Andy:

That's fair. That's very fair, State Frosty.

Darby:

Sorry, Cowboys fans.

Andy:

No, that's fine. Cowboys fans will tell you he needs the State Frosty. Yeah, no, I'm fine with that. The Micah Parsons thing is very upsetting. That, that's the Micah Parsons thing is very upsetting. Two first round picks in the future, but I just you give it to Green Bay Two first round picks for Micah Parsons though. First round picks can sometimes turn into pretty good players I don't know, it could be another Micah Parsons.

Andy:

That was a joke, yeah, I don't know. The whole thing was weird If you read into any of that. Darby Jerry thought he had the deal with Parsons, but then Parsons is like you got to run it through my agent and Jerry got all in a huff because he's like I thought we had a deal, why do I need to talk to your agent? And then his agent is getting all mad like you shouldn't talk to my player without talking to the agent. Like that's the whole reason we have agents. It was like a whole thing and it ended with the last preseason game.

Darby:

You even called it out, michael was asleep on the sideline and I told any of that that day I was like, yeah, he's not gonna be around for long no, he was not, so it was good to have you here while we did Micah.

Andy:

Why?

Darby:

would you send him to a team that just annihilated your team at the end?

Andy:

all right, all right.

Andy:

I don't know he's not a good GM. That's why he needs to go. All right, I have an old man yells a cloud here too, I don't know. Do you have an old man yells a cloud? All right, we're transitioning from the Stay Frosty segment into the old man yells a cloud segment. This is one. It doesn't have to be sports related. It's often sports related, but I have one that is not sports related Traffic signals.

Andy:

What is going on? I know my wife just shook her head. She doesn't understand where this is going. I'm going to tell you where it's going. I don't think we use engineers anymore for traffic signals. I don't understand the timing. It's so off Everywhere I go. I don't know if it's a Mason, westchester, liberty Township issue and that's just. You know I drive probably you know 90% of my ventures are in those three areas kind of area, the greater Cincinnati area, let's just say it that way. I don't understand. Every time I get on a road I feel like I missed the traffic signal by a few beats and I don't get it. Like I just turned right. Why am I not hitting the next signal like I should just move along and like I don't know? That just came. I thought of this the other day.

Andy:

I forget where we were driving but, yeah, we're at main event, and it took a million hours to get there, and it's not even that far, and we hit every single traffic signal along the way. It must have been 15 or 16 traffic stops. We hit every single one of them and it made no sense. So I'm either the most unlucky person in the world or this. They have just totally screwed up all these traffic signals, and we were on the main road for a lot of that like that should be the one that's going through and clearing room or whatever for all the other side streets to turn on to it, and we just stop, stop, stop, stop, stop. I was getting frustrated, and then we hit it again this morning.

Andy:

When we went to the king's mills hospital this morning, we hit a million lights and I was like zooming up to the light and still not making it through, and people in front of me would stop or whatever. I'm like, oh my gosh, like we cannot catch a break every time we turn anywhere. And then, of course, on the way home, though, we did seem to flow. Everything flowed our way, but I think, more times than not, the traffic signals are so screwed up I think they need to go back to engineering school or something. Maybe hire some purdue engineers to look into this. Maybe not too many uc engineers, maybe that's a problem, perhaps in this area. So that is my.

Darby:

Uh old man yells at cloud put in more roundabouts, and it couldn't be more of an old man thing to complain.

Andy:

Oh the traffic. Oh, I get stuck in traffic and I can't. I. I work from home so I'm never in traffic. But what I am, I gotta complain about it. So it was a very old man moment right there. All right, darby, what do you? Got one for? The old man yells at cloud.

Darby:

Has to be at the NFL ticket. Oh boy so we paid for all this money to watch all the NFL games, but we cannot watch any preseason games on the ticket. It doesn't make any sense to me, and I mean I know that not a lot of people like to watch preseason because it's not the starters. Even more reason why they should just let us watch them, the viewers.

Andy:

Yes.

Darby:

Second. Nfl ticket complaint is if I'm out of town, I should not be disallowed to watch the local game that I reside where my residence is. If I am out of town because it blocks it out on the ticket so I can't watch it, and then, more than likely, wherever I am is not going to play it on their local tv, so I have no way to watch my local team. We have so many streaming services that should just depend on the ip address of your current location or a new tv in that location, whatever.

Andy:

But right, they should tweak it yes and know that you're in the like fort wayne area or something and that the colts are on here right, not the bangles. Yes, yeah, because there are times when we travel or whatever and we miss out on the game.

Darby:

Because, yeah, it's not on ticket you can't watch it on a ticket, because it says it's your local game, but then you don't have the local cbs right, because our bill comes to a million dollars, yeah, yeah anyways, that's my, that's my, yale's a cloud, I think.

Andy:

I mean, and I totally agree I totally agree with you on the preseason thing. Only three games for each team, right? How hard would that be? They're recorded, they're putting them on broadcast, so I don't know why we can't get access to them. We don't pay this because we got a discount. We went through Verizon and did a discount thing on it this year, but if we had not had a discount, I looked it up $500 for the ticket this year. Crazy $500 for 17, 18 days of games. Days yeah.

Darby:

Days.

Andy:

You Sunday.

Darby:

If you do anything on Sunday, you just forfeited one-eighteenth of what you were doing. So every time, like Friday when they go play in Brazil, we have to watch it somewhere else.

Andy:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, this Friday's on YouTube.

Darby:

And then Prime gets them sometime Prime gets them.

Andy:

Yeah, thursday nights are on other things. You've got to have a million different things. There's one Christmas Day game or something on Netflix. The Black Friday game, I think, is on Netflix too. There's a whole bunch of different streaming things for it. But yeah, if you pay that much per ticket, it should just get you all the games. You shouldn't have to buy all these sub streaming things. The nfl makes enough money. All right, like I said earlier, darby a bit of an nfl expert, so we are going to do our nfl preview here on the show this season with her. We're going to start with the division winners for each division and then we're going to go into who we think is going to win the conference, and then we'll do some Super Bowl winners and then we'll get to our locks at the end here. But let's get into the divisions Now.

Andy:

I just kind of threw them in order. I went in an order that made sense to me. I started in the east, but then I went north, then south, then west. So I made made sense to me. I started in the East, but then I went North, then South, then West. So I made like a zigzag. I don't know if there was a better way that you could think of to do it that way, but I just started with the NFC and I started with the East. I don't know why, but the four teams in the NFC East, the Eagles, are minus 140. Then it's Command, then it's commanders, cowboys and giants, with all varying odds, that are plus numbers, right? So what do you? Who do you think?

Darby:

for the east, I'd pick the commanders we're in alignment.

Andy:

I also picked the commanders that you can get the commanders at plus 210. Now the nfc east I think it's been 17 years since a team repeated as the champ, even when the Giants were winning, like Super Bowls there and stuff like that. The Eagles won two Super Bowls there. There's been, I think for the last 17 years.

Darby:

There have been no repeats for division champs, and this again would be a non-repeat.

Andy:

Again, not be a repeat. The Eagles won it last year. So, yeah, I love that. I think you get good value with it. Uh, so yeah, I would definitely bet the commander. So, okay, we're in alignment there now. We did not talk about these ahead of time either, so I don't know what she's going to say on some of these, but I like that. I'm going to highlight that one, I'm definitely going to bet that one, and you probably, if you're listening hopefully you're listening before 8.15 on Thursday night, because if you are not, you may get worse odds on this.

Andy:

Or actually you probably won't change too much, because the Eagles are going to pound the Cowboys.

Darby:

Quick stat the rate of top performers or the commanders returning this season is 80% from 24, and the Eagles is 72.4%.

Andy:

That's really high.

Darby:

Yeah, there you go.

Andy:

Whoa, I was going to highlight it. I don't know how Google Word I can't seem to get the ink to work, so I will just make a mental note. Oh, there we go. Highlight color. There we go. All right, now we're going to go to the NFC North. This is the Packers are the favorite here, but not by much. The Packers and I'm a little surprised by that, since the Lions want it so handily.

Darby:

The Lions is who I picked and I think they have the Packers up here, or it's listed here with the better odds because of Micah Parsons in the Micah Parsons trade. But people may want to keep a tab on his L4, L5 injury because I think that's going to end up causing him issues.

Andy:

Darby coming with the doctor diagnosis here. Micah Parsons has an injury and it may not be a full health.

Darby:

Yeah right, so I think they want to do injections for him to make sure that he's playing, but I don't know, we'll see how long that lasts.

Andy:

So you have the Lions at plus 185. I am differing from you here. I am taking the favorite. I'm taking the Packers at plus 170. I love Micah Parsons. I think I honestly think this is going to be the player that like tips everything for the Packers. I'm so mad Any other team in the world would do. If you ask the Chiefs, they would gladly trade two first-round picks for Micah Parsons. If you ask the Eagles, obviously the Cowboys aren't going to trade him to the Eagles, but they would gladly ship two first round picks over.

Darby:

Well, and what they came back and said was that more teams would have been willing to give more for Micah Parsons. But I think Jerry was spiteful. I think he took the Packers straight and didn't even. I think it was a spike.

Andy:

It just makes me so mad, I can't even. I think it was a spike. It just makes me so bad I can't even with this whole thing. So, yeah, I'm gonna take the Packers, but you're taking the Lions to win that division. All right, let's go on to one of the worst divisions of football, the NFC South yeah here too, I'm a.

Andy:

Baker believer as well, all right, I'm a Baker believer as well. I'm a Bake-lever, I don't know. I tried to combine them that didn't work out so well. But yeah, the Falcons are starting a rookie quarterback, the Panthers stink. The Saints have one of the worst odds to win the division, at plus 1,800 out of all the different teams. So yeah, one of the worst odds to win the division, at plus 1800 out of all the different teams. So yeah. And the saints are also starting a guy named spencer rattler at quarterback. So uh, yeah, I will gladly take the bucks there. So we're in alignment there.

Darby:

The west nfc west 49ers are the favorite, but you got the rams cardinals, seahawks all right, they've got defensive rookie of the year, jerry verse, coming back and I think he's gonna cause a lot of problems and I love a good defense, so I really like the rams here well the 49ers have a very good defense. They do um. I think they lost debo, samuel and I I think he was one of their better players and he went to the commanders right, yeah left hand up yep, um, so I don't know.

Darby:

I think after they lose liners lost devo and I thought he was a good weapon and I like the defense for the rams just a little bit better than the niners all right, we differ there.

Andy:

I'm taking the niners, uh, and that's only because my season long lock is the niners over ten and a half wins, and that's only because my season long lock is the Niners over ten and a half wins. So, to go along with my season long lock, I think they also win the division, and this is a big if. You know where I'm going with this one, probably, if Christian McCaffrey stays healthy, they'll be incredible. They he sets the tone, yeah. So if he's healthy, which is a big if, then I think they win the division but, the likelihood that he's out by week three or four is very high.

Andy:

He gets hurt all the time. Now I don't have him on fantasy this year, so maybe he won't get hurt did your sister drop?

Darby:

okay on that, christian McCaffrey she did and her team name for the listeners here is injured reserve, because most of her players get injured. A lot of her players get like an unusual amount of players like eight to ten of the people she drafts okay, I got Christian McCaffrey again this year, so sorry, christian oh no, I think you got maybe I should have waited to make my season-long lock until the draft, so I knew that she was drafting him.

Andy:

Oh boy, all right, so we differ there. So now let's go up to the, let's go to the AFC, let's go to the AFC East.

Darby:

I have the Bills.

Andy:

Bills are the favorite at minus 285. Not only are they the favorite for that division, they're the biggest favorite out of all the teams to win their division. So, yep, yeah, I'm with you 100%. I can't believe the Patriots are the second team in there. I don't know what happened. What happened to the Dolphins, like? Why are they so far off?

Darby:

because it's well what if two.

Andy:

It doesn't have two fingers in place.

Darby:

The whole season, yeah, when he has that's what they call it.

Andy:

That's what social media calls it. You didn't know. It was called that, no oh it's when he's laying on his back and his hands are up. I'm concussed again.

Darby:

No, no, I think the.

Andy:

Dolphins will be decent. I don't know. The Tyreek Hill had one of his worst seasons last year. There's no way he has that season again, right. So like I think they'll be fine. I was very confused by that. If you're gonna go out on a limb and this is a big limb you could throw a little money on the Dolphins at plus 800, I think. But yeah, I'm taking the bills if I'm gonna bet this one win the East well, yeah, what Josh Allen gets hurt you think there's no doubt.

Andy:

No doubt, this is a stone-cold lock that got all the divisions. This is the one you have the least amount of doubt about.

Darby:

I don't think the bill is serious.

Andy:

Okay, all right, all right. You know like we're picking a couple of these, the favorites or whatever, usually like two or three teams that made the playoffs the year before. Don't make it the next year. You don't think that's the bills? Okay, all right. Too much hard knocks. They love the. What you saw on hard knocks, all right. Uh, I haven't watched any of that either. The afc north, the local region for us. Ravens are the favorite at minus 155, followed by the bengal steelers brown.

Darby:

Hi, I'm picking the Ravens. I really want to say Bengals here, but I think their offensive line is just going to continue to be a huge issue for Joe Burrow. He was ranked last year like number five in sacks and I don't think that's going to get better and he's had injuries over the last few years anyway and I think before they're in their defense is not good. I don't like that anymore. Are they angles defense?

Andy:

No I don't know. I've got a bangles expert.

Darby:

I think their team had when they made it to the Super Bowl, and I think they've gotten a little worse every year since Ravens. All right, ravens have learned single 155.

Andy:

I am going to not pick them, I am picking. I'm putting on my a, a Ron tinfoil hat, and I am going with the Steelers. I think it's tremendous value at plus 525. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record as a head coach.

Darby:

I think Rodgers comes in, but we saw some light on Rodgers' best play for the Jets. Okay, it was him running out of the locker room with a flag and that was it. That was two years ago.

Andy:

He played some games last year. It didn't running out of the locker room with the flag and that was it. That was two years ago. He played some games last year. It didn't go well last year. But the Jets are a mess of an organization. I think you look at what he did with the Packers I know it's been a couple years removed. He was consistently placing them in contention for the North. They won the North many years when he was there in Green Bay. I get he's older now but I think he's still got enough left that the Steelers, the Stallers, win the division.

Andy:

I think this is one. I circled when he went there and I said I think this is going to work out for him. I love that. I'm getting it at plus 525. I may bet it and then bet it twice on Sunday. I love this one. This division always changes. Who wins it too? Also, no respect for my boy, joe Flacco, here. The worst odds to win the division the Browns at plus 3,500. 3,500. You're telling me Flacco can't win that division. Get out of here. I might sprinkle $3 on that. Maybe I'll put $2 in honor of the Powerball.

Darby:

I'll throw $2. Flacco had a good team around then. Maybe he's getting old.

Andy:

He is old. I just was surprised that those were the odds for them. Maybe they thought Shador was starting. Maybe that's why the odds were so bad. Maybe they need to update it because Flacco's in town all right, the AFC South, another not so good division Texans yeah, I'm boring too. I'm going Texans. Yeah, I know, I mean, I don't have much to say about this. The Jaguars always. The dark horse always oh, it's the jazz is the Jags here. Is this a year? Trevor Lawrence puts it together. Thoughts on on that.

Darby:

I think they're gonna rename the Jacksonville Jaguars to the London something eventually well, what are the Colts?

Andy:

what are the Colts doing this year with Daniel Jones a quarterback? What is that? About nothing. I just don't like it.

Darby:

But like you said, the gym or say it could be. I know one of those miracle years is their owner just passed.

Andy:

That is true, their owner did pass away in between the seasons. So yeah, you never know. With that, I do know that the Titans have no shot at this division. Alright, and then the last division we're going to look at the AFC West, the home of your Broncos. What are you thinking?

Darby:

I'm going to begrudgingly say the Chiefs, I really want to say the Broncos here. I think the Travis Kelsey, Taylor Swift wedding announcement. I think most or all of the groomsmen are probably going to be the refs, for Travis Mahomes will probably be a redsman, oh my. And on a serious note though, the Chiefs won 13 of their regular season games last year by three points or less.

Andy:

Say that standing up.

Darby:

The Chiefs won 13 of their regular season games by three points or less in 24. Of their regular season games by three points or less than 24. And in December they only won 10 of their first 13 games by seven points per year. So all of their games last year were very, very close. And I don't know, maybe luck isn't in their favor, but I really want to pick the Broncos here. So if I'm wrong, that's fine with me.

Andy:

Yeah, no, I don't think you're. I think you're right. I think the Chiefs a lot of karma. Yeah, you know, they say karma is a cat. That's Taylor Swift's song line. In case you're not familiar with that song Karma, I am not. This is a Swifty podcast. Let's remind the viewers that we are Swifties here. No, let's remind the viewers that we are Swifties here. No, I'm not. All right. Well, you're on a pro-Swifty podcast. But yes, I thought the engagement photo was very lovely, very tastefully done. Good job, travis and Tay-Tay. Yeah, I think the Chiefs win this again. The Broncos may do it. It wouldn't surprise me if the Broncos won it, because sometimes the Chiefs stumble and struggle a little bit in the regular season. They've got to be getting tired. How many times can they go to the Super Bowl and win or lose it in a row before their team is just exhausted?

Darby:

I'll say that Denver defense added Barron from Texas and he didn't allow a single touchdown in coverage last season, which is very unusual in college because it's not a big defensive college is just not big defensive teams. But and then they also kept their defensive player of the year, pat Sertan. They just signed Bonito to a four-year extension. I don't know. I think the Denver's defense is going to be really good this year.

Andy:

Okay, and any thoughts on the Harbaugh and the Chargers and Justin air bear any hope at all that they could come up and win the division.

Darby:

I think they're gonna be better this year than they have been in the past few, but I Don't think they're going to be better than the Chiefs and the Broncos.

Andy:

Okay, so you still think they finished third in the division?

Darby:

Yeah, but it's a good division, I think.

Andy:

I know, but better, but still, third Geez.

Darby:

Better yeah.

Andy:

And no thoughts on Pete Carroll doing it with Vegas, not this year, not this year. He's got to get people to know, but he's got Geno. He used to, wasn't he with Geno?

Darby:

a little bit before. All right, not this year for the Raiders.

Andy:

Let's talk conference winners. Did you pick any? I have the list up on the odds, so we'll give the people the odds here, if you had any. Like, who do you think to win the NFC AFC? Oh like a Super Bowl matchup.

Darby:

Super Bowl matchup. I mean I'd love to see Bill's Lions.

Andy:

I think I said that last year in the Super.

Darby:

Bowl. I'd always love to see the Broncos.

Andy:

My login expired here. Let me check what that would give the people at home here. So if you did bills winning, all right, let me see the bills are plus 340 and you said the Lions plus 650. So that's yeah, that would be a pretty good payday for you there if you bet those two and they both happen, and if if you parlayed them together, it would be even better. So you think that's the Super Bowl Bills and Lions.

Andy:

All right, I'm very boring. I think the Super Bowl is going to be the Kansas City Chiefs. I think the NFL will do everything in their power to make sure that Taylor Swift is in the Super Bowl this year. Some have speculated that they might get married at halftime or she might be the halftime performer more. But yeah, I think so. Kansas City, and then, from the NFC, I'm going to take the Green Bay Packers. I talked about it earlier with Parsons. I like it. It yeah, I know you got the eye roll there from Darby. They're plus 600, so I like that. Take a plus 400 and a plus 600. Put them together, that's your Super Bowl. That's my prediction. Who do you have winning the Super Bowl?

Darby:

Who did I end up picking the Chiefs? And who or did I pick the Chiefs?

Andy:

I thought you picked the Bills and the Lions.

Darby:

Bills and the Lions.

Andy:

I would say Lions. All right, I got the Packers. I like the odds I know, I think the Micah Parsons thing tips it. I think that they're at. What was their number here?

Darby:

It's so high you probably can't see it.

Andy:

No, they're one of the favorites. They're plus 1,300 to win the Super Bowl. Okay, did you have anybody? That was a long shot, like, oh, if you were going to throw a few bucks on this team. So the favorites are the ravens eagles bills chiefs, lions packers those are the favorites um broncos, bangles, bucks or vikings okay, wait, broncos, you could get them at 25 to 1. That's a good one. You said bangles 22-1 that's a good one. You said bangles 22 to 1 bucks long job.

Darby:

I can't find the bucks. Hold on 28 to 1 vikings 22 to 1, same as bangles oh, there you go all right.

Andy:

All right, um, I talked about it earlier. I'd give you the stall Stullers. If you're going to do a long shot, why not go for it? You know they're due. They haven't won in a while since Big Ben was there, so 45-1, you can get the odds on the Steelers. If Rodgers stays healthy, I don't think it would hurt you to put a couple bucks on the Stullers the bunch of yinzers going to the Super Bowl and winning it.

Darby:

Or a guy that cursed Aaron Rodgers' name a lot. I'm sure love him and his old team. I told you I got my tinfoil hat on.

Andy:

I took a horse tranquilizer and I got my tinfoil hat on. I'll probably be asked to be. Maybe I'll do a collab with Joe Rogan. We can do cross promotion. I can bring some people to his podcast.

Darby:

He can bring some people to mine. Stay tuned, I'll have that up too.

Andy:

I don't think he has the number one sports gambling podcast in Liberty Township, so I could do that, alright, and then we're going to roll through. Do you have your phone on you?

Andy:

I do we're going to roll through our picks here. So every week Darby and I pick all the games against the spread and, uh, we'll just give you a quick overview and have some thoughts on it, if we have any thoughts. If not, we'll just tell you what we thought for the game. But it starts with thursday night football. All right, cowboys at the eagles, eagles six and a half point favorite, darby, who you got here? Eagles, there's no doubter. Right, nothing to say much there. That's. It's sad but that's gonna happen. Friday night we have a Friday night game in Brazil Chiefs three and a half favorites at Chargers, but not really at Chargers because it's in Brazil. Cheese. Yeah, chiefs as well. I don't think air bear does it, but you had a stat there, though, earlier about the Chiefs, how many three-point games they had, so that technically wouldn't cover if they won by three.

Andy:

That's true uh, and then Sunday, starting our slate, we got minus one and a half the Buccaneers at Falcons, bucs, bucs, uh, yeah, I don't have much to say about that one right now. Uh, bengals minus five and a half at the Browns.

Darby:

I picked Bengals, but the Browns do have a tendency to be the one like one of the few wins against the Bengals, and that's why I took Browns plus 5.5.

Andy:

I think you catch Flacco early. He's been resting all summer long. You got a young knee Flacco there, or whatever, in his first game back, so I like them there. That's the difference, I think. Dolphins plus 1 a half at Colts. I also have dolphins. Daniel Jones stinks. I don't want to take the Colts to win any games this year. Panthers plus two and a half at Jacksonville.

Darby:

Jacksonville.

Andy:

I also took Jacksonville that I don't trust the Panthers, especially on the road.

Darby:

Uh raiders readers plus three and a half.

Andy:

Now this is a west coast team traveling east. That's fine. You still want the raiders, plus three and a half I like the raiders I too picked that.

Andy:

Yeah, I like the raiders there too. What do you got for cardinals minus five and a half at saints cardinals, yes, cardinals big, I think they roll them there. Sp Spencer Rattler, the Saints are going to be hard to watch this year. Steelers minus three and a half at the Jets. Steelers and the Steelers there as well. Jets, another team that will be hard to watch. Giants, another team hard to watch. Six and a half point underdogs at Commanders. Yep same Titans 7.5 point underdog at Denver.

Andy:

I picked the Broncos that's our first 4 o'clock game good luck, Cam Ward. I think the Broncos roll in there. No doubt in my mind, Sunday 4 o'clock again 49ers minus 2.5 at the Seahawks 49ers yep, same 49ers boy. We have a lot the same this week Lions plus one and a half at. Green Bay I picked the Lions as well.

Darby:

I thought you wanted Green Bay all day.

Andy:

I did just pick Green Bay to win the Super Bowl but that's sometimes the inconsistencies that you'll get with gambling and stuff.

Andy:

I do think Green Bay, but I think the Lions the way they lost in the playoffs last year, I think they're going to come out and whoop, I think they'll beat the Packers. So, yeah, I would take them. We took them plus one and a half in our little gambling group thing app, but I would take them just money line to win Tex half in our little gambling group thing app, but I would take them just money line to win texans plus two and a half at the rams. I think the rams. See, this is where we differ. I took the texans, I I don't know stafford early in the season, though the rams. I'm gonna keep my texans pick, but I don't mind. This is what I debated quite a bit before I could make my decision. There's only a few games this week where I really sat and was like, oh, I don't know, flip-flop, flip-flop. Yeah, uh, sunday night football ravens plus one and a half, add the bills I did make the ravens here quote the derby nevermore that's right no, I got the bills.

Andy:

Nobody. Nobody circles the wagons like the buffalo bills. I think the bills circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. I think the bills beat the Ravens, I yeah. And then Monday Night Football Vikings minus one and a half at the bears Vikings yeah, no one and a half. They must not trust JJ McCarthy well, he's new so okay, caleb Williams was new last year. He was terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible. He did go back. I saw I don't know if there's a fake news article or not he did go back to painting his nails.

Darby:

This off season, so maybe go in the first round when he got drafted yes, yes.

Andy:

So caleb williams, with the finger paint on his nails again. You like that or no?

Darby:

paint on his nails again. You like that, or?

Andy:

no, you don't think that helps him. I don't. I like the vikings. I do too. All right, so that's it for every single game we just gave you there. Um, oh, season long locks. Since we're starting the season off, where the gambling group always does these, I uh, with the help of my wife here, I came up with the 49ers over 10 and a half. That's my season long lock. Some of the other nfl ones and we talked about on the podcast last week. Greg gave us under eight and a half wins for the bears. Mike, uncle mike gave us vikings over eight and a half wins. I like that one too. What do you think of that one?

Andy:

Oh, my god and then Ethan gave us bangles under nine and a half wins. What do you think of that?

Darby:

I Think it's gonna depend on a lot on their offensive line bangles. Offensive line, joe can't I mean constantly scramble out of the pocket.

Andy:

But so you think they could go on that if their?

Darby:

offensive line is. As bad as they might be, they might go under nine, okay, I don't know.

Andy:

I didn't like that one, so I stayed away from the bangles. I couldn't decide. I think they said that right at where it needs to be, nine and a half, so I didn't want to go up or down on that. He's very confident though, so, uh, and then, as far as lock of the week, the gambling group, I only have the one so far. Steve gave us Iowa at Iowa State minus three. Now, listen, I like it, I love it. I want some more of it.

Andy:

I did a little anti Iowa parlay last week. I'm trying to find it here for the people. There was a lot of promotional deals or whatever. So I sat down and cooked up in the lab a little anti-Iowa parlay of the weekend. They were playing the University of Albany, the Great Danes, and I picked six different things. I picked the Albany spread plus 38.5. Iowa doesn't score points, so 38.5. Immediately I was like this is suspicious Under total points of 49.5, again, iowa doesn't score points. First half under of 27 and a half total points. Albany spread at halftime 21 and a half Total points in the first quarter under 10 and a half. And Albany spread first quarter plus eight and a half. I parlayed all those things together and I got paid. It was a pretty good payday. I think it was five to one. It paid out. So I hit that little parlay.

Andy:

I might put together a little anti-Iowa parlay for this weekend. They still stink. I don't think they score at all. So if you're looking to do some unders and stuff, iowa is always attractive for that. But yeah, I like that. Steve, that's a good lock. I think Iowa State wins by more than three and then that's it.

Andy:

So my lock this week oh, laney wanted something to say there on the podcast. I'm giving you for my lock of the week. I'm giving you the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus two. On the road in Hotlanta there are going to be four rookies starting in Atlanta this year on both sides of the ball. A total of four players that are rookies. Give me experience in game one of the year. I like Baker Mayfield. I'm a believer in Baker. Michael Penix Jr, you played quarterback at IU. All right, you're not an NFL starter. I'm sorry, it's just math. I don't like quarterbacks out of Indiana University not a football school, not a quarterback school. No, I'm going to take Baker minus two over an IU quarterback all days and twice on Sunday. That is my lock of the week Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus two. I like it.

Darby:

I'm going to take the Lions over Packers Plus one and a half. Lions are plus one and a half.

Andy:

Lions over Packers. Yeah, that's your lock.

Darby:

Yeah, Lions are plus one and a half.

Andy:

Oh my, that's one I flip-flopped on and you're saying, no flip-flop, that's your lock of the week. Wow, lock it in. All right. Any parting thoughts for the people this week? Nothing, just good luck gambling. Just good luck gambling. There you go.

Darby:

Gamble responsibly.

Andy:

Oh, always gamble responsibly. That's going to do it for the show this week. We got the dog picks coming up on Tik TOK this weekend and look for us on Tik TOK at TSS gambling. Our Twitter handle, also at TSS gambling very unique, different code there. So, yeah, that's it. You'll find this anywhere you can find podcasts. So thanks everybody for listening and good luck gambling.

Darby:

Thanks everybody, thank you.