The Sportsbook Sharps
Your edge in sports betting. New episodes weekly.
The Sportsbook Sharps
We Track Chaos Across College And The NFL So You Can Bet Smarter
Sports betting swings hard when coaches fall and narratives crack, and this week had both. We open with accountability on our 4–4 slate and a strong NFL ATS clip, then dive straight into the college football earthquake: Penn State dumps James Franklin after back-to-back losses as huge favorites, the carousel spins at UCLA and Oregon State, and NIL-era expectations push boosters to chase instant turnarounds. We unpack how those moves actually shift spreads, influence tempo, and create one-week sugar highs that the market rarely prices correctly.
From there, we spotlight Indiana’s transformation—speed, discipline, and a statement win over Oregon that hints at sustained value while legacy brands still get priced on reputation. The SEC’s middle looks wobbly, with narrow escapes and home-cooked schedules propping up rankings. That opens doors for measured contrarian plays: Georgia Tech value spots, Notre Dame overvaluation, and stay-aways where risk outruns the number. Our take: ignore helmets, trust current form, and follow opponent-adjusted metrics.
The NFL section punches just as hard. Jets fans might want earmuffs: nine completions, nine sacks, and a coaching staff refusing to pivot. We press the Bills on defense under Sean McDermott and talk about why rookie QB success has warped owner patience and distorted market expectations. Add in London kickoffs and double Monday nighters, and you’ve got totals that depend on travel, timing, and coaching choices on fourth down. We break down the best angles on home dogs, why the Chargers remain a fade in tight spreads, and where rest advantages quietly move the needle.
Two locks anchor the card with clear logic. First, Dolphins at Browns under 37.5 on the back of heavy rain and 50–60 mph gusts that erase field goals and force turnover-on-downs. Second, Seahawks-Texans over 40.5, boosted by competent QB play and a loud prime-time environment. Sprinkle in sharper leans—USC +9.5 at Notre Dame, skepticism on Georgia vs Ole Miss—and you’ve got a focused roadmap instead of a shotgun ticket.
If you like data-backed edges, smart fades of public myths, and a few spicy rants about schedule creep, you’ll feel right at home. Subscribe, drop a review, and tell us your most confident play this week—we’ll feature our favorite takes on the next show.
Hey everybody, today is Thursday, October 16th, and we are back with another edition of the Sportsbook Sharps. As always, I am your host Andy, and we have a special guest in the studio. Uncle Mike makes his triumphant return.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, it's great to be back on the show. First uh appearance this year, and so hopefully uh we got some uh winning picks for you.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, hopefully first of many. We need to get you back in the studio here. We got to get back into a cadence here. Matt kind of stole your spot there for a minute. So uh yeah, good to have you on. Uh gambling update for the week, uh, four and four. Again, two weeks ago we went seven and one. We cannot seem to get it going. I don't know. At least we're not like two and six.
SPEAKER_00:No, and and we're and we still have a really good record for the year. I think we're at about 58% uh win percentage for the year overall. We're really good at NFL. Yeah. Did you see the NFL number? Yes. I didn't write it down, but and that doesn't surprise me. If you remember, week one, of course, is only college.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:I missed my pick by a mile, and I said, well, don't worry, that'll probably be the last college pick I do all year. I just think college, I don't know, just it's hard to pick depending on 18 and 19 year olds. That's uh that's a crapshoot.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, no, I'm with you. Um, Mike, you're four and three on the season, so you're above 500. I am six and one, back in sole possession of first place. Take that, Uncle John. Yes, I got my spot back. We were tied for one week, and I rightfully came back. I told you I made a big mistake with the Giants, and I will not make that mistake again. The Giants not betting them again. Uh, although they did cover in the Thursday night game when they beat the Eagles. So they they're they're really wanting me to go back to the Giants. Um, I did write it down. The NFL, we are 16 and 7 against the spread. Uh, that doesn't include over-unders and everything. And college, we're 12 and 14 against the spread. So we gotta stop. Well, and that's not including Steve's lock that already missed on Tuesday, 12 and 15. Oh, man. Don't bet Tuesday night football. What are we doing?
SPEAKER_00:Well, they were up 14 to 19. Going into the fourth quarter, things were looking good until they weren't. Right. It turned in a hurry. It turned in a hurry, that's for sure.
SPEAKER_01:Uh, I got a couple of notes here. We're going into the Stay Frosty segment. Um, running list of coach fired. Big addition for college football this week. That's right. Trent Dilfer is out at UAB. Big firing. No, I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Uh obviously the biggest fire was Penn State, James Franklin. What a fall from grace, quickly. Quickly.
SPEAKER_00:He was one, I mean, one play last year away from playing for the title. They give me. And then what have you done for me lately? Well, and then this year he's one play away from being number one. They beat Oregon in that double overtime game, and they're probably ranked number one. Or second two. And then they proceed to lose the next two games and third. Against bad teams. You're done.
SPEAKER_01:UCLA didn't win, had a win, had not won yet. Had already fired their coach.
SPEAKER_00:Well, how bad was that UCLA coach? Oh my gosh. They've won two in a row. They've won two in a row and they've looked really good. Really good. Oh, I think that coach was just terrible. He must have just been awful. Oh. Well, that quarterback, uh, he's a five-star, the guy that transferred from Tennessee. He did nothing. Right. And then as soon as the coaching changed, he he looks like a five-star now.
SPEAKER_01:Right. We uh what uh what is that guy's name? I can't pronounce that. What's his name? Clay Travis loves to talk about him. Uh I haven't heard much in the last two weeks about it because he said he was going from playing in front of everybody at Tennessee.
SPEAKER_00:He's a big Tennessee homer. Yeah, I know. I know. Huge Tennessee homer.
SPEAKER_01:But yeah, I cannot believe, I can't believe they didn't let the season play out. That they fired him after three losses in a row. I mean Unreal. Yeah, I I mean he goes from uh we talked about I talked about on the podcast last week, goes from uh, you know, two number th uh three or number two, preseason number two to unranked, and Texas also from number one to unranked. Uh the Texas guy still has his job, but they hadn't lost three in a row. Um, but they lost two games. Uh just crazy college year. Oh, it's it's unreal. I cannot believe Northwestern beat him. What a what a joke. Northwestern.
SPEAKER_00:Northwestern. Well, and UCLA hadn't won a game until they beat him.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Yeah. So I guess you lose three in a row when you're top five team, that gets you bounced. Uh true just a side note, Trent Bray at Oregon State also fired this week. Uh sure. I mean, Oregon State, they don't even have a conference. I don't know what. Who cares?
SPEAKER_00:Like, I Yeah, I mean, who are you gonna get to fill that position?
SPEAKER_01:At Oregon State? We have no conference. I don't know, somebody from the Sunbelt.
SPEAKER_00:We have no conference. I know.
SPEAKER_01:I mean it'd be like if Washington State fired their coach. I was I couldn't believe it when I was I was I always Google like coaches fire. Obviously, I knew Franklin, and Dilfer was all over social media because people like to dunk on him. So I saw that one. But the Trent Bray one, I'm like, I couldn't have Super Bowl winning quarterback Trent Delfer. Oh my gosh. I just hope he doesn't show back up at ESPN or something. He was annoying on there. I I don't know. Uh, and then a real quick uh I a stat on Franklin. They are the first school, Penn State, to lose consecutive games as 20-point favorites. The UCLA and Northwestern, they were both 20-plus point favorites, and they lost them both. And he has four of those on his resume.
SPEAKER_00:That's a great addition to the resume.
SPEAKER_01:That's a tough uh that's a tough one. But he's gonna do the thing that the coaches do. He's gonna be making millions just sitting around doing nothing. So what a job to have. Um so we'll add those to our running list. We got quite a long one for college. Uh crazy coaching carousel this year for college football. We already have the Penn State, Arkansas, UCLA, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State jobs open, which some of those are better than others, but they're all pretty good schools. They're all power five schools. The rumors are by the end of the year, though, we'll have Florida, Auburn, UNC, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, UK, Michigan State, South Carolina, Boston College, and potentially Maryland jobs open. What a crazy, I mean, it's it's it's gonna be one of the biggest openings. I don't know if this is all the NIL stuff. Like every team thinks they can just turn it around immediately with a new coach. I don't know if it's partly, I think in the NFL, I'll talk about this a little bit later with the quarterbacks thing and rookies and stuff like that. I think a lot of people are looking at Indiana and they're like, why like if you're at Oklahoma, why can't you do what Indiana did? You fire the guy and get the right guy in, and all of a sudden you're in the top five.
SPEAKER_00:I don't know. I think a part of it is driving a lot of this. It has an impact, that's for sure.
SPEAKER_01:It's crazy. Um, and then in the NFL, real quick, first casualty, Brian Callahan of the Tennessee Titans. I don't really understand this one, Mike. Can you help me out with this one at all? I well you're starting a rookie quarterback.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I mean What were the expectations? I I don't know. They won one game. And you know, the thing is The Colts are five and one and they're a lot of these coaches getting fired. You know, the the owners should be fired. Right. I mean, you let Mike Vraperl walk. Right.
SPEAKER_01:New England 4-2 on there, I think.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, 4-2. Let him walk out the building.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, he's looking pretty good up in New England.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, yeah, he looks pretty good.
SPEAKER_01:It's disgusting. Uh I I I the only thing I can think, and this goes back to what I said a minute ago, I think the rookie quarterbacks have broken ownership's brains. So they they you know, Dart in New York this year is looking good. Uh they're not winning a lot of games, but he looks good. Uh Daniels and Bo Nicks both make the playoffs last year as rookies uh for Washington and Denver, Denver. Penix is looking good this year. Drake May is looking good. We just said the New England's four and two. Uh CJ Stroud made the playoffs his rookie year in 23. Uh, this is such a change from 20 years ago, too. I was looking this up. The top one of the top search results. I don't know if you remember page two on ESPN, Mike. Did you ever read that? Oh, yeah. That's where like Bill Simmons was and stuff, like in the early 2000s. There was an article that came up from 04 talking about Eli and Phillip and how it's rare that these two will probably start as rookie quarterbacks. And I'm and it just had me laughing because uh like nowadays, every time they draft somebody in the first round, it's an automatic start.
SPEAKER_00:It's crazy. There's so many rookies that start because you think about all of these great quarterbacks that never started as rookies. I mean, Mahomes Mahomes didn't start. Rogers didn't start, not that he's great, but he won a Super Bowl and he's I mean, a lot of really good quarterbacks that did not start as a rookie. Yeah. And now every rookie, I mean, if if you draft a quarterback in the first round of a rookie and they can't start, you feel like you missed on a draft pick.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, it's crazy.
SPEAKER_01:Uh yeah. I don't know. I this is just puzzling to me. Uh the Titans have no offense. You know, it's not just a quarterback. Like, if you look at your fantasy league, look look at how many starting wide receivers and tight ends and stuff are in your fantasy league. I uh you'll be hard pressed to find one. You with buys and stuff, maybe you'll find one, but like it's no, they're not good.
SPEAKER_00:Well, and and I think that's why some of these, you know, quarterbacks that get labeled a bust, and then everyone's surprised, like Baker and Sam Darnold. Well, I'm not surprised. Okay, you go from you were with the Jets and the Panthers, right, and then you go to the Vikings. The difference in how those organizations have uh are run are night and day. I mean, the Vikings, you know, most years they're competitive. Yes, they may they've had a ton of playoff uh appearances. And so same with Baker down in Tampa.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, like they go from the Browns. The Browns, the women's who drugged to the playoffs, and his thank you was getting the boot.
SPEAKER_00:He won their first playoff game in 20 years. Since they were around, yeah. And they let him go. Since he came back, he would be the MVP of the league right now, I think, if if the season ended today.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, he's very good.
SPEAKER_00:And Darnold would get votes, I think. Yeah. I mean, it's just, but you know, you you when they get drafted in the first round and they're a high draft pick, those organizations are terrible. Yeah. And then people are like, oh, well, he struggled. Well, he was with the Jetlin Panthers, Panthers. Right. I mean, two organizations that are just awful. Yeah. So I'm not really historically I'm not surprised that he's having success in Seattle. I mean, it's the Vikings just couldn't, you know, they couldn't work out a deal to keep him. But I'm not surprised that he's doing well there.
SPEAKER_01:Right, right. Speaking of horrible organizations, I'm gonna put my Stay Frosty up here. I am putting, and it's his first year, but it it after this last game, I think the coach, some of the coaching decisions are just mind-boggling. It's got no, it's gotta be the Jets. Aaron Glenn of the Jets. That game, I had to watch that game. So obviously, Darby, Broncos fan, my wife. So I'm watching 9.30 on a Sunday morning, just a poo-poo show on my TV. That they can't uh the the Broncos can't get anything going on offense. The the Jets they set records uh minus 10 passing yards, first time in 27 years that a quarterback's end of the game with that. And and Eric Len's like trotting him out there, throwing it and stuff. He had nine sacks, he had nine completions, and he had nine sacks. What are you doing? Pull the plug on Justin Fields. Justin Fields, he the first player I have it in here somewhere. I thought. Oh, Justin Fields. First quarterback to have nine sacks and nine or fewer completions since Justin Fields in 2021.
SPEAKER_00:Well, my favorite just my favorite part of that story is then he got testy with the media when they asked him if Fields was going to keep starving. Yeah. Like, like that was the dumbest question he'd ever heard. It's like But he didn't say no. So, like he said no, he's done. He was like offended. Like, why would you ask that question? Right, I know. I don't know. Maybe because he had as many sacks as completions, maybe. I don't know.
SPEAKER_01:I I have his stats in here on the on the sack times. So it's not just that he nobody's open or whatever, like he just doesn't make a decision. So his average sack time was nine 3.95 seconds for for context with this. Caleb Williams has the longest average time to throw, and it's 3.05 seconds. So he's almost a full second beyond the slowest person uh on average with those sacks. And the NFL average is 2.65 seconds to like read the field, throw the ball. Like you'd see it all the time on Sunday. They they drop back, they take their three steps, and the ball is almost out. Boom. He he can't make a decision. And you can tell, like he's just running around in the pocket, he's he's scrambling to the side. He cannot make a decision, he can't read the field. And that is not something like it's been many years. He's been around five seasons, six seasons in the NFL. Like, where do we need to end the Justin Fields experiment?
SPEAKER_00:There's there's a reason the Steelers moved off.
SPEAKER_01:Right. I mean, right. They moved him to Russ last year in the middle of the season.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:And they made the playoffs. Oh, he's so bad. So that's who I'm putting up. Aaron Glenn, stay frosty. Mike, who you got.
SPEAKER_00:I okay, so this might be a little controversial, but I I really think unless they turn things around and make a deep run in the playoffs, I think uh Sean McDermott might be gone at the end of this year. The Bills are just it's almost malpractice. I mean, you've got a generational quarterback in Josh Allen, and you have absolutely nothing to show for it. And this is the part that gets me. He's a D, you know, in the NFL, like all your head coaches are either offense, defense, right? Right. He's defense. Their defense is terrible. Like, if you're the head coach, that's whatever side of the ball you came up from, you have to be good at it. You have to be. Their defense is atrocious, it's just terrible. So I I just I don't I don't I don't think he's gonna be able to do that. Did they make one AFC championship? Yeah, the one the Chiefs may have that miracle comeback. Yeah. Well, the Chiefs a lot of miracle work, but the Chiefs they and and a conspiracy theory on this is that they um they won't be able to promote their offensive coordinator uh who's a hot name, Joe Brady. The conspiracy theory is they won't be able to promote him because the Bills owners has uh ties to Penn State. Uh or no, uh that Joe Brady will not go to Penn State, he's been mentioned, um, because uh the Bill's owner has ties to Penn State and that he paid part of the buyout for Franklin with a with an under the table handry deal that they wouldn't go after Joe Brady. Oh wow. So that's your conspiracy theory, right?
SPEAKER_01:I like that. I like a good conspiracy theory. Well, who hasn't been named for the Penn State job? Nick Saban was named for the Penn State job the other day. Did you see that? Well, I'm I I I would call him.
SPEAKER_00:You wouldn't call him? I don't know. Can he do the NIL? Maybe he and Miss Terry, you know, she's like, you need to get out of the house more, Nick. I don't know.
SPEAKER_01:I don't know. Maybe. I don't know. He seems pretty content on game day, so I don't know. That seemed like an odd one to me. But yeah, I agree with you. That's a good Stay Frosty. Like, if he doesn't do anything this year and they're trending toward not, they've lost two in a row. They're on a bye this week. They're on a bye.
SPEAKER_00:Let's see what they come back with. I think New England wins that division. Oh my gosh. That'll be a nightmare. I do. I think New England's gonna win that division.
SPEAKER_01:They're spending all that money building that new stadium and everything, and they're gonna get handed a wild card spot for their efforts.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that's what I think is gonna happen.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, wow. All right. Well, that's pretty good. All right, let's get into the recap here. I'm gonna go college football first here. Oregon, Indiana. Indiana 30, Oregon 20. Indiana was like a seven and a half, nine and a half at one point underdog. Go off, Mike. What do you have to say about this game?
SPEAKER_00:I mean, the biggest victory in IU football history by far. I mean, I cannot believe they won. I can't.
SPEAKER_01:I didn't think they would win.
SPEAKER_00:I and and it wasn't a fluke. I mean, like, they they were the just the better teams. Yes. You know, that day. Top to bottom. The thing that I just cannot get over with Indiana is is the team speed improvement. Yeah. Always in the past, when they would play the Ohio States, the Michigans, the Oregons, whoever they would play, teams like that, it always felt like they had 10 to 15 guys on their team that were faster than the fastest guy on IU.
unknown:Right.
SPEAKER_00:It's gone now. I mean, their team speed, they can keep up with anyone. I mean, it's just it the turnaround that Signeti has uh, you know, the turnaround that he has gotten IU football, it just it's hard to even fathom. I mean, they were the worst power for football team. Worse than Andy, worse than Kansas, the worst. Yeah, they were bad. And I it's the doormen of the big team. Yeah. It's on, it's this, it's it's hard to wrap my brain. It's a total turnaround. It's hard to wrap my brain around. I mean, I I think in all of my years of following sports, it's the most impressive turnaround of any sport I've ever seen. Yeah. Oh, it is. To go from where they were to making the playoff and having a great chance to make it uh again this year.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, they're I mean, that would be an epic failure if they don't make it at this point. Oregon was the big game.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Illinois, and then they whooped Illinois. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then Oregon.
SPEAKER_00:And then Well, yeah, looking at the schedule preseason, the three games that stuck out to me, and they've already won two of them, were at Oregon, at Iowa, at Penn State. I'm like, okay, those are and and and they already won at Iowa, at Oregon, and now Penn State, all of a sudden, that doesn't look so daunting. Never daunting. Yeah, but now you never you never know. Uh I hate when teams make coaching changes. I don't like that.
SPEAKER_01:That is a concern.
SPEAKER_00:Yes. Yeah. I I did that in my Survivor.
SPEAKER_01:Because Penn C has good players.
SPEAKER_00:I was very tempted in the NFL to take, I forget who who do the Titans play this week. Um and it was the team, oh, the Pat, the Pats, and I haven't picked the Pats yet in my Survivor thing. And I was like, I I can't do it. I didn't do it because of the coaching term. I mean it's and it's a home game for Tennessee.
SPEAKER_01:It is a home game for Tennessee. I held my thumb over that one for we Darby and I do the lot or the picks every week against spread for her work league thing. And I had to sit there for a good minute on that one because I'm the same. Like, are they talented enough to do something, or what like what's going on here? So I went so yeah, I'm well.
SPEAKER_00:So I went with the Chiefs at home against the Raiders. Um it's down to 7,000. It started with 111,000 entrants on fanatics, and it's down to 7,000. Wow. So um, so hopefully the Chiefs can come through for me.
SPEAKER_01:They're yeah, it's at Kansas City, they're 12 and a half point favorites. That's a W.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:You don't need a cover, you just need a win. Yeah, I picked them the cover. All I need is stinks. Oakland is stinky is bad, but Oakland is so bad. So we'll see. All right, and then we've got their big rival in the Big Ten, the one that's keeping them out of that top spot. Ohio State 34, Illinois 16. Uh I mean, have we already pretty much, with the exception that you talked about Penn State coaching change, is this not just the Big Ten championship?
SPEAKER_00:It's looking like it could be.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. I mean, it's gotta be Ohio State. Ohio State has no ranked games left. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Indiana has no ranked teams left. And they're and they're playing they're playing well. Although I will say Indiana beat Illinois by a lot more than Ohio State did. Just saying for all you OSU lovers out there. No, I yeah. But so, no, I'm I'm I uh you know I'm always cautious when it comes to IU football. I've that's just years of conditioning, but um they would they will be favored in every game they have left on their schedule. Both teams, both teams will be, yes. So we'll see.
SPEAKER_01:And Ohio State is playing Penn State at home. So if the coaching change does make a difference, it's at Ohio State where you guys have Indiana has to be. Ohio State only has Michigan. Oh, they're at Wisconsin this weekend. Wisconsin stakes. They're coaches. Oh, he's gone. He's so toast. Yeah, he'll be up maybe next week on State Frosty.
SPEAKER_00:It's hard to understand how the these things just don't work out. Like the guy builds a program at UC. Right. Builds a really good program. Yeah, yeah. And now uh can't can't do anything right at Wisconsin.
SPEAKER_01:Nope. Uh Oklahoma six, Texas 23. I I just had this footnote in here. I was so wrong. I thought Oklahoma would kill him. I don't get Texas at all this season. I don't it i I know it's on a neutral field, but like I I just don't I don't get it.
SPEAKER_00:What I mean Well, the SEC is so overrated.
SPEAKER_01:Is it yeah, Oklahoma was six?
SPEAKER_00:I it's just ridiculous.
SPEAKER_01:I know their quarterbacks hurt and he didn't play in the game. Well still, be the guy behind them.
SPEAKER_00:These people with votes need to come to the realization that, hey, guess what? All the conferences are paying players now. Right. You know, you you had all these uh car dealerships. Oh, yeah, you had all these. Nick Saban had many bagmen. Yeah, Nick Saban had many car dealership. McAfee called him out of that. If you don't think Nick Saban had bag men all over the place, you're out of your mind.
SPEAKER_01:He had guys pulling up in brand new Mercedes and stuff, and and every oh whoa. Yeah, he had like 12 car dealerships that guys would just drive off the lot with whatever they saw. I love McAfee. Get out of here.
SPEAKER_00:He should, yeah. But anyhow, yeah, and and and so now all of a sudden it's a level playing field, and these SEC teams are just I mean, it's it's ridiculous. I mean, Missouri. I mean, how in what world are they at top 22?
SPEAKER_01:There's so many bad SEC schools that are ranked, and they're gonna beat each other up, and then they're gonna play oh the strength, the schedule.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, we yeah, I mean, come on, give me a break. I mean, Old Miss at home barely uh could beat Washington State, who doesn't even have a they're like with Oregon State with no conference. I mean, it's just ridiculous.
SPEAKER_01:Uh Georgia 20, Auburn 10. Did you see the timeout controversy by Kirby Smart? Yeah, what a joke. So if you didn't see it, its score was 13 to 10. Georgia was leading. There was a third and nine, and Kirby wanted to use a timeout to like get it together. And then all of a sudden, he's saying he's waving the ref down on the sideline. Like, I didn't call timeout. I was doing a clap. I was clapping my hands saying that uh the Auburn guy was simulating the snap, and it should be a flag or whatever. I was trying to call that to your attention. So he gets the play stop, they give him the timeout back, and then as they're showing it on TV, it's a hundred percent of timeout. He's got the T in his hand. I've never seen a human clap making a T with your one hand inserted into the middle of the other hand. Insane that he got that.
SPEAKER_00:An SEC is crooked and a wire. What a call. SEC. What a shock.
SPEAKER_01:Home cooking. A little, well, it wasn't even home. It was just protect the higher seat.
SPEAKER_00:Well, and that's the second time Auburn's got screwed because remember that Oklahoma beat him on that play where the guy with the substitution thing. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:So yes, where he's running off to the sideline, but then didn't. Then didn't. Yeah. That Bob Stoops said they practice this because they know it's cheating, but they so they practice it so they get away with it. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Uh speaking of, yeah, you brought it up already. SEC close calls. Ole Miss at home wins by three. That was at home against Washington State.
SPEAKER_00:They were favored by a gazillion, too.
SPEAKER_01:Uh Bama survives a mediocre Mizzou to win by three. Uh Mizzou, there are five wins. This is a ranked Mizzou team. Ranked. This team's ranked. Central Arkansas, Kansas, University and Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and UMass. And you know what's even more incredible about that? They are all at home. Missouri has traveled zero miles so far this season. I cannot even believe how one-sided some of this stuff is. It's just incredible. Um, Tennessee wins by three against a two-in Arkansas team that fired their coach already. When are we gonna decide that the SEC just isn't as good as it used to be?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, what's it gonna take?
SPEAKER_01:I don't I mean ESPN is in bed big time with the people with the SEC. Like they promote it. Saban's on game day talking about it all the time. It's disgusting. It is. The TV contracts are really ruining the uh all right, NFL, games that confuse me, Buffalo 14, Atlanta 24. We we kind of talked about it because you put them up, but I just how do you how do you lose to by 10? I know it's at Atlanta, but that was a stunner. That was a stunner. I just I couldn't believe it. Uh Seattle 20, Jacksonville 12. That didn't stun me. So Jacksonville's at home, though. They beat Kansas City, and then the next week they're like, please, Seattle, come and beat us. Well, I yeah, I don't trust that.
SPEAKER_00:How do you beat Kansas City? I don't trust Jacksonville at all.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, that's fair. When I was looking at their game this week, they're are they they're in London this week against the Rams. And I'm like, oh, is this like they're gonna bounce back from losing Seattle? They're playing in their home country, like they're in London. I don't know. I I ended up picking the Rams on that one.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, the NFL is just it's crazy. Yeah. Well, there's only what, like three, or maybe maybe there's four one loss teams? Yeah. I mean, almost every team has at least two losses already. It's crazy.
SPEAKER_01:Uh, one that didn't surprise me was last week's Thursday night football game. Eagles, Eagles, 17 to G, man, 34. I've been saying Jalen Hurts stinks. Can people finally agree with me that Jalen Hurts stinks? He's a bum.
SPEAKER_00:Well, I I the Eagles uh that's who the Vikings have this week. I picked the Vikings. Vikings are coming off a bye. Two and a half points. They're at home. You guys are underdogs, right? Two and a half points. Home dogs run faster. Home dogs. Um, so that's a big game for the Vikings. They're three and two. Would love to see him get the four and two.
SPEAKER_01:Uh Denver 13, New York Jets 11. That was the morning game. I already kind of talked about it with the Jets thing. It was, it was well, I I did watch it.
SPEAKER_00:I well, I did too, but it was uh it was unwatched.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, it was. Justin Fields. If they don't make a change soon, I just I don't I don't understand it at all. Are the Jets off this week or do they play? Uh I don't know if they if I have a game for them or not. Let me see.
SPEAKER_00:I think that no, the only buy this week is Ravens and Bills. Okay. Who do they got? Oh, they're the Panthers at New York. Panthers are a one-point favorite.
SPEAKER_01:Oh my. Uh all right. Old Man Yells at Cloud Time. Listen, this is such an old man thing, but I'm done with these extra games. I'm done. I I've defended them in the past, but after watching that terrible game, we got another one this week. It's too many. It was cute when it was one or two. You uh get almost excited, like, oh, we got football at 9:30. This is like the fourth one already, and there's still two more to go. I'm done with it. I don't like this early 9 a.m. thing, and I don't like the double Monday night football. I seriously think uh the Houston Seattle game kicks off at 10 on Monday night, 10 p.m. Eastern.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Uh I truly think the NFL is just being a jerk about this because they know that the NLCS and the ALCS are going on right now. Because they they did two, like the start of the season, then they took a bunch of time off, and then two weeks in a row they're doing two because they had baseball playoffs last week. Monday and they have baseball playoffs. This would be game six of the NLCS and game seven of the ALCS. And also seven o'clock for the first game is too early. I never have dinner on the table by seven. Uh and you're kicking a game off. I think it needs to be eight and ten. I'd rather it be eight and nine. That way there's overlap in case one of the games is terrible. I just but I'm done with it. Like the double the double Monday night is just annoying because like I just it's too much. Like I just wanted my Sunday to be football. Matt likes that too. Like that's a very Matt take. Uh and I made fun of him a couple weeks ago for that. But like this the London thing is killing me. There's still two more.
SPEAKER_00:Well, the thing that's crazy then is you look at the four o'clock time slot, there's no games. Yeah, there were like three games. It's like Sunday, and you're like, four o'clock, what's going on? There's hardly any games.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:They're ruining their product.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. You gotta you gotta have at least four games at four.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Three, two and three is too few. Yeah. There's there's bad games.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. And now I I will say, even though it's a late start, I do I do like it. Uh now the seven and ten is too much of a stagger, but I do I don't like when they only put one hour between. Oh, I don't mind that at all.
SPEAKER_01:Because one of those games usually stinks.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, but what if they're both good? I mean, I don't like it.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. We got four this week at four. Oh. So there we go. There you go. But there's potential.
SPEAKER_00:Well, I can see only two teams have a bye, that's why.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, but they're doing Monday night and then they're doing the early game.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, the Sunday morning.
SPEAKER_01:The Cowboys Commanders game is not going to be entertaining. I mean, it will be uh the high scoring because the Cowboys have zero defense at all. Packers Cardinals, Cardinals stink. Colts Chargers is a good game. That'll be good at four. If the Giants keep playing well, that Broncos Giants game could be good. So four o'clock, we could be saved this week, but boy, that the Cowboys defense is just so bad. Alright, Mike, you got an old man yells at cloud? No, I'm I'm good.
SPEAKER_00:I have nothing on that today.
SPEAKER_01:Alright, Mike, we're gonna do a little factor fiction here. Alright. Uh a little uh new segment alert here for this year. We haven't done a fact or fiction yet. I'm gonna ask you, I think I got seven here. Alright, we're gonna go. Ready?
SPEAKER_00:Yep.
SPEAKER_01:The winner, fact or fiction, the winner of the college football playoff will be from the Big Ten. Fact. So you think it's either Ohio State or Indiana, and there's nobody else that's gonna win.
SPEAKER_00:Um, I I wouldn't rule, I uh you know, I just I still think Oregon can beat a lot of teams, too.
SPEAKER_01:All right. Oh, yeah, that's fair. That's fair. Yeah, they could get it going. Uh fact or fiction, more than one team will make it into the college football playoff from the Big 12.
SPEAKER_00:I I I will say fiction only because of ESPN's love for SEC. They should get two teams in. Yeah, they have a bunch of teams with no losses. They absolutely should. But they're not ranked that high. But um I don't think they will.
SPEAKER_01:Okay. Uh fact or fiction, the Indiana Hoosiers are the best team in the Big Ten.
SPEAKER_00:Um, I don't know. I all I I I lose I mentioned this earlier. It's not I don't know, it's fact or fiction. Okay, well, I I would say fact. Well spicy, go back and look at the common opponent. Illinois. Indiana beat him by 153. It's night and day right now.
SPEAKER_01:The the social media is saying that Ohio State has smartly not deployed their offense to its full extent to hide the not put game tape out. I can't even make this up.
SPEAKER_00:Ryan, Ryan Day isn't smart enough to do something like that.
SPEAKER_01:I literally saw like Buckeye Fan 42 and all these people saying this on Twitter this week, uh, because they were bringing up that point about the common opponent, so that's funny.
SPEAKER_00:Ryan Day is not smart enough to do something like that.
SPEAKER_01:That is funny. Oh no, I know. I was laughing at that too. Uh last year, one team, Clemson, made it into the 12-team college football playoff with three losses. This year, there will be at least two or more that make it with three losses. Fact or fiction?
SPEAKER_00:Uh, I'm gonna say fiction, uh, but it it wouldn't show. I mean, I think one for sure. Two will be a stretch, but again, it's gonna go back to the Big 12's gonna have a deserving team, and does a three-loss SEC team get in there instead? That's why I put that in. And it could happen. And I mean, it's probably, I guess I'm talking myself into fact because with the expansion this year, there's more teams in, and the SEC love knows it knows no bounds. I know. That's what it was it's just ridiculous.
SPEAKER_01:Legitimate was thinking they would put an SEC school in that had three losses, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I mean, I remember last year, you know, all those South Carolina fans. I if you remember, I had about an hour-long Twitter battle with the South Carolina fans that were all up in arms that Indiana didn't got. They're not looking too good this year. I mean, they went to Old Miss and had a field goal. I mean, if you go somewhere and you and you put three points on the board, I don't think you can argue that you need to be in the national playoffs.
SPEAKER_01:I don't know. All right, let's get into the NFL factor fiction real quick here. The Buffalo Bills are frauds. Factor fiction. Their four wins come from teams with a combined record of three and twenty one.
SPEAKER_00:Well, you know I'm gonna say fact because I just put McNerman on the Stay Frosty Stay Frosty. Yeah, I I just I mean, again, their defense is just awful. I mean, uh it's just shocking to me that he's a defensive coach and their defense is just terrible.
SPEAKER_01:All right. Fact or fiction, the Ravens are done. They currently sit at one and five. Oh, that's a fact.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, they're done.
SPEAKER_01:They're they're toast. Even though they are on a bye this week and next week Lamar comes back. Yeah, but they didn't look very good with Lamar.
SPEAKER_00:All right. No, I think they're done.
SPEAKER_01:Some people think that they're gonna rip off five in a row and sit at uh six and five.
SPEAKER_00:I don't think that's gonna happen at all.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, you skip, you skipped one though. Oh, I did. Sorry. Fact or fiction, the Colts are the best team in the NFL. Oh, come on, please.
SPEAKER_00:That is so much fiction.
SPEAKER_01:Who's the best team in the NFL then?
SPEAKER_00:Danny Dimes is Cinderella and it's gonna strike mid- Oh no.
SPEAKER_01:Really?
SPEAKER_00:Indiana Jones? Danny Dimes is gonna. I mean, there's no way that they're the best teams. So who's the best team then? Well, not the Colts. I'll tell you that.
SPEAKER_01:Tampa Bay?
SPEAKER_00:Five and one Tampa Bay? Maybe Tampa Bay.
SPEAKER_01:Those are the two teams with one loss. Maybe Tampa Bay, yeah. Wow. All right. I thought you were gonna say out of there.
SPEAKER_00:I'm not a Colts believer.
SPEAKER_01:All right. Uh last one, this is a baseball one. The winner of the World Series will be a first-time winner. Fact or fiction. That would be the Mariners or the Brewers. They've never won. Fiction, they're toast. Mariners were up 2-0. Now it's 2-1.
SPEAKER_00:The Dodgers, they have they I now I will say No, I hope. I would love for one of the Mariners to win. All right. But I just think the Dodgers are, I will say they're well run, and then with no salary cap, they can outspend almost all these teams. And so the combination of being able to outspend, and I do think that. But the Dodgers don't have a big dumper. And I do think they have a big run organization. Uh it's it's not gonna be.
SPEAKER_01:Seattle big dumps them into the outfield.
SPEAKER_00:The Dodgers, I I think, are gonna win the series. It pains me to oh, it is gross.
SPEAKER_01:That's my least favorite team left out of all of them.
SPEAKER_00:Oh, me too, but I just think they're still I still think they're gonna win, unfortunately.
SPEAKER_01:Oh man. Disappointing to hear that. Uh big games for the week now. College football, Friday night lights. We got two. Uh I think this LSU, is this LSU Vandy game Friday night too? No, I didn't. My notes don't look right. Hold on. Let's go with the first one, though. Louisville at number two, Miami. Miami, Mr. 305, minus 13.5. What do you think of that game, Mike? I love the villa.
SPEAKER_00:I love the Vilda cover there. Uh yeah, I I'm not, I'm not.
SPEAKER_01:No, Vandy's not.
SPEAKER_00:I thought there were two Friday night games, but it's not that.
SPEAKER_01:Okay.
SPEAKER_00:I'm not I'm not convinced of Miami. I I I like I agree. I don't think Miami's really beat anybody. I like the Vilda cover, and it and it wouldn't shock me if they pulled out an upside. Well, I don't know about an upside.
SPEAKER_01:14's a lot. I think I think we can cover that.
SPEAKER_00:Sprinkle the money line.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, wow. Sprinkle the money line. That's more than I was.
SPEAKER_00:You heard it here first.
SPEAKER_01:I was not going to go that far. All right. We got number 10, LSU, and number 17, Vandy.
SPEAKER_00:Vandy, two and a half point favorite. Yeah, I I it pains me because I I do not like LSU at all, but I like LSU. I don't like why is Vandy a favorite again? I don't know.
SPEAKER_01:Because it's at home? Like, what are we Didn't Alabama put that out? Like we we saw who Vandy was in the Bama game. Like LSU, even though they have Brian Kelly as a head coach, I think they covered it. I think they covered. I think they win.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I think they win.
SPEAKER_01:So that's one I would get on with the moneyline. Yeah, we gotta sprinkle that. Maybe not sprinkle, maybe just put moneyline.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Uh number 12, undefeated Georgia Tech at Duke. Duke minus one and a half. I don't understand. No respect. This was almost my luck. I don't understand the.
SPEAKER_00:Georgia Tech money line. And Georgia Tech. Run, run, run, run. And remember last year they had Georgia on the ropes. They really should have beat him. Yeah. I know respect.
SPEAKER_01:I I don't understand this at all. There's no injuries. I looked it up. There's no major injuries to like the running backs or or the quarterback or anything. No. I don't get the Duke glove here. This one puzzled my puzzler. Georgia Tech. We don't talk a lot of ACC football here, but that line, that's a rat line. Yeah. What is going on there?
SPEAKER_00:I don't understand that.
SPEAKER_01:Borderline lock. If I did many college, that would be a lock, Georgia Tech. Like I don't get this at all. Ole Miss, number five at number nine, Georgia. Georgia seven and a half point favorites. Ole Miss just struggled with Washington State.
SPEAKER_00:And they and they really struggled at Kentucky as well. I actually was at that game. Ole Miss at Kentucky. I uh I mean I I love Ole Miss. I root for him, but I I don't know.
SPEAKER_01:Georgia's not covered a lot of games this year. No. Two games, I think, they've covered.
SPEAKER_00:I I that's that's probably a stay away game for me.
SPEAKER_01:All right, I like that. I'm with you too, because Georgia was on the ban list. Now I've lifted the ban on Georgia because they did cover. So they've covered two weeks in a row, but I I'm still gun shy. It's not a ban, but it's gonna be my stay away game of the week, too. I don't like that.
SPEAKER_00:I don't like it. I'll I would stay away.
SPEAKER_01:Alright, 11 Tennessee at number six, Alabama. Alabama an eight and a half point favorite. We already have Bama back up in the top six again.
SPEAKER_00:Uh I and it pains me to say this, but I like Bama here. I think Tennessee should have paid that quarterback. That's at UCLA.
SPEAKER_01:Olave or whatever.
SPEAKER_00:Nico Olave. Yeah, Nico, they should have paid him.
SPEAKER_01:They should have paid Nico. They should have paid him. Their offense looks bad.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, Tennessee to me is the Penn State of the SEC. They're always fake good. Yes. They're always on the cusp, they're always fake good, and they never deliver. That's a great way to put it. And their fans are complete.
SPEAKER_01:Over a touchdown, though, you think that Alabama covers that?
SPEAKER_00:Oh, I yeah, I like I like Bama in this one.
SPEAKER_01:I'd probably lean Bama too. Uh yeah, just because Tennessee's offense is so bad. Like, they're not going to score. So unless it's like 10 to 3, they're probably going to cover this. Uh number 20, USC. At number 13, Notre Dame, the Irish, nine and a half point favorites. What why are they ranked 13?
SPEAKER_00:I I don't know, but that just seems like a lot of points. I mean, I know they're at home, but that I I like USC to cover. I think Notre Dame probably wins, but I think it'll be a close game. I don't know. 100% agree. Nine and a half.
SPEAKER_01:I don't even know if I agree with the Notre Dame winning part.
SPEAKER_00:Nine and a half.
SPEAKER_01:Nine and a half is way too many. That's 10. That's yeah, no. No. I'm with you. USC all the way. That's probably my Big Ten Homer ship going, and my anti-Notre Dame ship. Uh question for you. Illinois, two losses. Number one in the land, Ohio State, number three in the land, Indiana, unranked. Notre Dame, two losses, but they're 13.
unknown:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:How do you lose to the one and three and not be ranked? But two loss teams are ranked that didn't lose to any caliber of those teams. I don't understand the rankings at all.
SPEAKER_00:No, I don't know.
SPEAKER_01:This goes back to my rant on preseason rankings and how they just need to get rid of them.
SPEAKER_00:They need to get rid of them.
SPEAKER_01:Because Notre Dame was high preseason. Well, and that's like the FCC.
SPEAKER_00:Well, and then you'll hear, oh, well, yeah, we lost three games, but they were all ranked. Well, yeah, but they shouldn't have been. Right. They were all ranked preseason.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy.
SPEAKER_01:All right. And then the last one for college, we're actually going to do the holy war. And it's ranked for the first time in forever. Number 23 Utah at number 15 BYU. BYU three and a half point fave underdog at home. If BYU wins this, Steve hits his season-long lock for over on wins. That'd be seven wins for BYU. First to do it, unless Southern Mist wins Saturday before this one. They're sitting at four. So it's a race to see who gets our season long first. If just by playing first, Southern Miss could get it.
SPEAKER_00:Well, we already had the what one of the is a loss already. I think that was a that was in the second week. That was Scott.
SPEAKER_01:Notre Dame. Scott picked them to win over ten and a half.
SPEAKER_00:I I I like BYU here. I I think Steve's lock uh hits. I hope it does. I bet it. Oh, you did. Okay. I I bet it as a future.
SPEAKER_01:So uh why did Game Day not go there? That puzzles me. I think Fox is there. Oh, but Game Day didn't decide, didn't want to go.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that's a big game.
SPEAKER_01:I think Game Day they went to Tuscaloosa again because they've never been there before.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, they've never been to.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I'm pretty sure they're either they might be at Georgia. I can't remember. They're either at Georgia or Alabama. It's one of those games. I think they're mighty Georgia. I think Georgia. Because they've never been there either.
SPEAKER_00:Well, the FCC.
SPEAKER_01:I just incredible. I just I don't get we can't get Game Day. The first time in forever that Utah and BYU are ranked, the Holy War, and we're not gonna get that out there. I'm with you. I'm rooting for BYU. I want Steve to get his season long in the first seven games. That'd be crazy. That is crazy. Alright, let's get into the NFL this week. The buys this week are the Bills and the Ravens. Uh we're gonna go to London first. I just gave uh about how I'm tired of the London, but then they gave us a pretty good game here. Rams, Jags, Jaguars, three-point underdog.
SPEAKER_00:Uh gosh, I don't know. I mean, I just I don't know what to make of the Jags. I I you know I don't like this game. I won't bet it, but if I had to bet it, I would probably take the Jags with the points.
SPEAKER_01:Do you count this as a road game for the Rams? Because it's in London. Technically, they are the road team. Yeah. Does this count as a road game? Because Sean McVay on the road as a favorite, his cover percent is like 80%. Really? He always covers on the road as a favorite. It's unbelievable. It's uncanny. If he's a road favorite, he covers the points. So I don't get it. I don't know if you count this as an awake game or not.
SPEAKER_00:They're both kind of away. Yeah, kinda.
SPEAKER_01:I don't know. But uh if that stat holds, that would be another one. Uh yeah, I I think the Rams, I picked them in my in my wife's uh work league thing. I picked the Rams minus three. Uh Philly at Minnesota, Mike. Minnesota two and a half point home dogs. We kind of talked about this earlier. Home dogs run fast.
SPEAKER_00:I this really worries me because Philly's coming off a bye. They're kind and they got annihilated uh by the giants. Or mini buy, mini buy. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Not a real buy. Not a real buy.
SPEAKER_00:They played Thursday. And the Vikings are coming off a real bye. So they had that back-to-back Europe uh first team. Good to be home. But what worries me is they don't know what they're doing at quarterback. And I I want them to stick with Wentz, but I'm worried that they might not.
SPEAKER_01:You think JJ might start this week?
SPEAKER_00:Well, they haven't announced a starter. Wentz did get banged up, his non-throwing shoulder. He got banged up in the game. But they've been off for a week. Um, I I don't know. Well, uh, and and so if they stick with Wentz, I like the Vikings here. McCarthy has played eight quarters and was absolutely god-awful in seven of them. Yes. Yeah, that one quarter. One quarter against the Bears. Monday night football. Great. Because we went to the other uh four quarters, I was at that game, of course. That was the Balcans destroyed. Oh, just destroyed them. They they didn't even score a touchdown at home against the Balcans. They had JJ looked really bad that game. Four or five field goals, and yeah, he looked horrible. So I'm hoping if they stick with Wentz, I like the Vikings. If they go to McCarthy, I I I would not bet it.
SPEAKER_01:All right. Uh New York Giants at Denver. Denver seven-point home favorite.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, the Giants aren't really that good, are they? That's what I said.
SPEAKER_01:I that's what I said.
SPEAKER_00:I think I'm not a bull.
SPEAKER_01:If it hadn't been the few last few weeks with them, remember they won and then they lost to Carolina? Was it Carolina? Tennessee. Somebody bad. So somebody bad. It was somebody bad. They won, then lost, then won, so now it's time to lose again.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I I'm not a believer. Well, and I Denver's gotta bounce back.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, Denver's defense is incredible.
SPEAKER_00:Their defense is really good. The offense uh was terrible last week.
SPEAKER_01:It was bad.
SPEAKER_00:But I think they bounced back.
SPEAKER_01:I think they bounced back too, yeah, yeah. They couldn't get the running, they couldn't get anything going last week. It was it was a bad offensive game, but I think at home they bounced back a little bit. I think they cover it, yeah. Uh Indy at the Chargers. Chargers minus one and a half. Chargers still on my double banned list. They're double banned. Ethan picked them last week. I said, hey man, did you know that team was banned? He said, I'd like to keep that pick, sir. They didn't cover. They're banned, they don't cover.
SPEAKER_00:Well, and and you know, we won't we don't need to start on their quarterback again. But I actually Air Bear. But I actually I I won't bet it, but if I had to bet it, I would bet the Chargers. Oh, I know, I know.
SPEAKER_01:Gross. I know. They're banned.
SPEAKER_00:No, I'm not gonna bet it.
SPEAKER_01:I'm betting indie. I'm betting indie. No, I'm just I'm money line, moneyline indie. I will not bet this game. Yeah. This if you want to take the Chargers, just remember they don't cover. So don't take them.
SPEAKER_00:Like they're banned. And Abear, just in tight games.
SPEAKER_01:He is such a choke artist. A choker.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, he is.
SPEAKER_01:I just it's the two games they lost, just they were 4-0. They look like they had a run on the West, AFC West, and now they're sitting there at 4-2, and they just look like they have a giant dunce cap on. Like I just they are so bad with that. That's classic Chargers, though. Yes. Like when Phillip Rivers was there and Tom and Cusp. They were they were they would do that where they'd run a bunch of games in a row and everybody's Dark Horse, you know, the people, the beat riders, oh, look out for the Chargers, the Chargers, uh, Antonio Gates, the Chargers. No.
SPEAKER_00:No.
SPEAKER_01:It never was. They went to one AFC championship. So I think we're getting a little bit of that this time. Uh and then again, we're doing double Monday night football. I just threw it on here. Uh, they are closer games. Uh, I the first one I think is very good. Tampa Bay at Detroit. Minus four and a half, Detroit.
SPEAKER_00:I I like uh I like Tampa here. I agree to cover. They've had so many games.
SPEAKER_01:They play with their food. Detroit plays with their food too much for my liking.
SPEAKER_00:And they've had so many close games. That's what I mean. I will I I wouldn't necessarily do moneyline, but I like Tampa to cover.
SPEAKER_01:No, I don't uh that would be a surprise to me if Tampa wins the game outright. Uh a little bit of a surprise, not a big one. Because so I think Dan Campbell gets too cute sometimes. And like instead of just taking the smart play, he's like, you know what? It's fourth and three, let's go. And it's like, well, but but you're up to seven. Like, you could cover Dan. You're four and a half point spread. I've yelled at my TV many times when I bet the Lions and they give up that late field goal or whatever, and then they try the onside kick to cover. It's like, oh. So yeah, I they they're too cute for me. Uh Houston at Seattle is the other one. That's the 10 o'clock start. Minus three and a half Seattle.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, I I probably would take Seattle here. I don't know that I will bet it, but I would I would take Seattle at home.
SPEAKER_01:I love Seattle at home.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:I love it. I almost made that my lock. Because I think Houston, they're going a little bit on the come up. I think a week or two ago, this would have been maybe a six-point spread, maybe six and a half.
SPEAKER_00:Well, and then and that's one of the tougher environments in the NFL to play in. Right. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And it's at a good time for those people. It's 7 o'clock on a Monday night. I think it'll be rocking. They'll probably have somebody, whatever they do with the 12th man flag thing or whatever, some famous person get it going. So I think they'll be rocking. I like Seattle there. Uh, I don't believe in Houston. All right, let's get through some of the locks here then, and then we'll wrap it up with our locks. We've got Greg giving us USC plus nine and a half in Notre Dame. We already talked about this one. We both like that one. Yep. So we both like USC. I'm gonna hit that with my notes here with a little highlight color so that I remember to bet that one because I like that one. Uh Ethan's giving us Carolina minus one at the New York Jets. I I I don't trust either team. No. That's a scary lock. That is.
SPEAKER_00:That's like uh the Jets are really bad, though. Ooh, they are bad. They are bad.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I just talked about how their coach should be fired. They haven't won a game. I mean, Carolina's.
SPEAKER_00:No, I mean they're terrible, but they're there's they are three and three. It's at New York. Yeah, I I don't love it. Yeah, they'll probably win. Yeah, it's only one point. I mean, it's minus one. So I would. Alright, I'll bet it.
SPEAKER_01:Alright, I'm talking me into it. I was gonna just stay away from the game. I'll probably I was gonna stay away entirely, but uh uh John, we got nothing from him yet, Uncle John. Steve already gave us a loser, South Alabama minus seven and a half. What a disappointment that was. I bet it. I was a believer in Steve. He's only got two right this year. I was like, oh, this is gonna be three. Picking Tuesday night, changing it up. No, it didn't work. Did not work. What a collapse. They were up 14 to 3.
SPEAKER_00:14 to 3 in the fourth.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and then they didn't even win. Uh, we got nothing from Matt. We got a late one here from Scott. Oh, we did. Okay. It just came across the wire here. Texas Tech, minus seven and a half. Now, I don't know who they're playing. We're gonna have to look this up in real time. Arizona State. The Sun Devils. Seven and a half. It's at Arizona State. I don't know about that.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Ooh, Arizona State just lost by 32 the week before to Utah. So maybe, yeah?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, yeah. I mean, I I do think Texas Tech is for real. I think they are too. They haven't lost yet.
SPEAKER_01:That's one of those teams I felt like could get in to the uh win it from there, Texas Tech. So I yeah, seven and a half. Uh yeah, I don't know about that. It's on the road. Seven and a half. Alright. Uh, nothing from Matt. Alright, I'll go with mine. This is my lock of the week. Remember, people, I've only missed once. And I picked the Giants, and I'm not making that mistake again. I told you that on the podcast. But I am giving you a new one this week. I'm usually an against the spread guy, but this one was so delicious I couldn't pass it up. I am giving you an under. Under 37 and a half. Dolphins at Browns. Now I know what you're thinking. 37.5, that's not a lot of points. The Browns don't score a lot of points. They stink. They're already on their second quarterback of the season. People are questioning if they should be moving on to Shador to the third quarterback of the season. We're only in week seven. And they're already talking third quarterback. They stink, but I'm gonna tell you why this is my lock. A little Twitter Birdie told me Sunday in Cleveland, open stadium still. They're talking about putting a dome up there, but for now, it's an open stadium. 94% chance of rain, potential wind gust up 50 to 60 miles per hour. That means if they do get close, they're not gonna risk a kick because if the wind is really gusty like that, who's gonna kick a 40-yard field goal? They're gonna go for it on fourth and three, fourth and four. Like I'm gonna kick a 40-yard field goal that's gonna go complete sideways and look like a fool. No. So there are gonna be a lot of drives to end with when you're searching through the app, if you don't watch this one, it'll say end it on downs, loss on downs, stuff like that. I think this is a a seven to six game or something. Like this is gonna be so low. These offenses are so bad. Tua looks like he's playing concussed again. Like now the Dolphins do cover, but I don't trust him. I don't trust him in the wind. Famously, Mr. Capri Pants himself can't handle weather, so I don't think he handles rain well. Uh although he is wearing his little waiting one, so he could stand in a puddle and not get his uh knickers wet. But no, I this is an under 37 and a half. That's my lock of the week.
SPEAKER_00:I like it. I'm I also have uh not going uh with the spread, but mine is an over.
SPEAKER_01:Well, you're an overs guy, though.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. You're you're you're an almost you need a jacket soon, the overs club. So Seahawks and Texans, I'm gonna take the over 40.5. Seems low to me with two teams that have pretty good quarterbacks. I mean, uh Stroud has been kind of hit or miss this year. He's more hit though in the last two weeks. I mean he was really good at running. First three weeks were not good. Second year, he had a uh a down year. I think he's trending up. Yes. Sam Barnold's been playing really well. So uh 40 points is a lot of points. So we need to 40 and a half points, I've got the over.
SPEAKER_01:And you just covered an over last week. You had 40. Never in doubt. He'd never in doubt. The over-under was 45. They come uh 44 and a half, they come in with 45 points. The Bengals.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, what did they have at halftime?
SPEAKER_01:It looked dead dead on arrival. Oh, it was so bad. The Green Bay Packers and the Bengals were like throwing the ball into the dirt at each other for the whole first half. That was an awful game. I thought I was dead. Oh I thought I was dead. I feel like the halftime score had to be like 13 points total or something. It was so low. I thought there's no way this gets to 45.
SPEAKER_00:It was, I just looked at that. It was 10 to nothing at halftime. 10. So it wasn't even 13. It gets better. It was 10 to 7 at the end of three. I was sitting at 17 points, and they threw 28 on the board in the fourth. It was unbelievable explosion.
SPEAKER_01:If you had the under in that game, you had to be disgusting. You thought you had you probably were already spending the money. Yeah. Oh, that was. I can't believe you got that over. Because I thought it was 45. I thought you got a push.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And then I looked it up and you got it at 44 and a half. Yeah. But did you actually get it in bet that way too? Yes, I did. Okay. Because sometimes we delay.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I that the Bengals game last week saved my weekend because I was terrible leading up to that, but I always bet my lock is my biggest of the week. Same, same. And I saw Cody Brown said because Jamar Chase was banged up, he he said to um ladder T. Higgins. So I I put three different yardages for Higgins. He hit all three. Oh, wow. Um, and then I also took the Bengals with the points.
SPEAKER_01:Cody Brown, a little bit of a hot streak this year. Oh, yeah. He's been real in.
SPEAKER_00:Oh, I can't believe I missed out on that lotto one.
SPEAKER_01:He hit where he hit all 18 games. Oh, he was at plus 50,000 or something.
SPEAKER_00:It was plus five something, or yeah. He paid 50 to 1 or something. Yeah, like a$5 bet you won 250,000.
SPEAKER_01:He said they took. What do you how much did he say? It was in the millions. They took MGM or something from millions. Whoever he bets through. FanDuel. 60 million because of his followers.
SPEAKER_00:I think is what it was.
SPEAKER_01:Oh my gosh. I mean. What a promotional material.
SPEAKER_00:He has a pretty good idea of who bet it. If anything, it's low because when he puts his bets out, if they win, he asks you to hit the like button if you tailed it. Yeah. So he can add up the likes, and if anything, that might be understated. Now he has to guess on what the average bet was. Yeah. But um, yeah, he he I think he used 20 bucks as the average bet, which maybe was a little high, but still I think it's probably about average with inflation.
SPEAKER_01:You can't even go through McDonald's with the 20 bucks anymore.
SPEAKER_00:Like, but you know, it's interesting because FanDuel has a partnership with him. Because he promotes the Well, because how many times does he not win? Yeah, I mean but that's a big I mean 60 mil is a lot.
SPEAKER_01:But how many people are gonna see that now and go in and think they can always win? Oh, yeah, and he just hooked people for like they'll be chasing that for the next three seasons. That's true. There's nothing like hitting a big parlay like that. Like that that's why those are you know such long shots and stuff, but boy, it's euphoric when you hit it.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, he had a prop, a prop, player prop bet in every game, and they all hit. Jeez, that's incredible. Unreal.
SPEAKER_01:Alright, so Seahawks, Texans over, Dolphins, Browns under. Those are our two locks this week. That's gonna do it for this week's show. Uh, we've, of course, as always, uh, with two Monday nights, we'll have Lady. Uh, she split last week, but Stanley Poochie hit again. He's been very good this year. He's a very good doggo. Uh, they're both good doggos. Uh, but we'll have three games. We'll have a Sunday night Stanley Poochie pick and then two ladies' locks for Monday night football. Find us at uh TSS Gambling on TikTok. Subscribe, follow the pod. It's at TSS Gambling everywhere that podcasts are. Apple, Spotify, all the places. It's everywhere.
SPEAKER_00:All right. Well, good luck gambling this weekend.
SPEAKER_01:We're we're due for a strong uh let's have a strong week. Thanks everybody for listening.