S4 E4: The Six Day War; Stagflation Reigns!

Stagflation Reigns!

Six days of horrifically WEAK macro-economic data in the US, particularly in the Labor Market report from the BLS, and ISM Service Sector Survey, in tandem with a new and broadening upside acceleration in CPI price inflation, offers HARD EVIDENCE that price inflation will be a dagger in the back of Consumer final demand growth, which will lead to a cocooning consumer and deflation in consumption...

and...to a LOWER US DOLLAR.

This in turn means Gold and Silver are likely "back in play", and the coming El Nino would team up with a depreciating US currency, to send Agricultural Commodities higher, while posing a deflation risk to the equity market!

Get the "gory data details" in The Six Day War; Stagflation Reigns!

Transcript

Welcome And The Six-Day War

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hi, Greg Weldon here. I'm your host from Money Markets and New Age Investing. Welcome back. This is season four, episode four. We're kicking it. And we're talking of today. The topic today is the six-day war. Stagflation reigns. Six-day war, kind of a play on words, you know, seven-day war in the Middle East. And bottom line is the six days is the last six days dating back to a week ago Friday. This is Saturday as I'm recording this, the 11th. But if you go back to a week ago Friday with the BLS labor statistics, then you had ISM earlier this week. You had the CPI numbers, and then you had the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. This is six days of dreadful, dreadful economic data that really isn't necessarily completely because of the war. Certainly, consumer sentiment is in large part because of the war. But this other economic data is troubling to the max because it kind of sets you up to where you have a situation where if you get some peace in the Middle East, it may bring the focus on the consumer who is anything but healthy. Anything but healthy. Okay, the Fed you know won't have to cut, they're comfortable where they are, kind of thing. And the economy is good and the labor market's good. That was the narrative on TV. And the bottom line is the Fed minutes from the March meeting, all right, which predates the BLS employment report, they specifically said that January-February labor data was negatively impacted by strikes, and they expect uh there to be uh this to be made up for in March with a large number, and it was. So the Fed totally expected this. This is not a surprise to the Fed, it's not a surprise to anyone you know who read the meeting minutes on Wednesday. But what's interesting here is every other part of this labor market data was horrible, really deflationary in the sense that it feeds into the stagflation theme. Why? Because the unemployment rate fell to 4.3, and that's great. And uh holy mackerel, we didn't expect that. And 4.4 to 4.3, the Fed has projected it out. Maybe it gets to 4.5, but having it in a range of 4.3 to 4.4 for the next two years. Saying there's gonna be no erosion in the labor market whatsoever for the next two years. They're kind of, you know, fairy tale view of what the employment market's got, especially when we have AI coming down the pike. But here's the bottom line on this report that was just released a week ago. There was 488,000, the biggest number of any number and any change in any part of this report were those that dropped out of the labor force. Had it not been for half a million people dropping out of the labor force in March, the unemployment rate would not have fallen. It's the only reason it fell. Okay, the only reason. And not only that, but the number not in the labor force is up 2.4 million in the last 12 months, and that has nothing to do really with immigration or deportation or self-deportation or any of this, to the degree these are people that either had jobs or were looking for jobs that gave up and dropped out. Keep that in mind, because we're gonna talk about this statistic a couple more times. All right, 2.4 million people in the last 12 months, 488,000. And what's interesting is the number of unemployed fell by 332, which normally you say that's a great number, but it's not because they left the labor force. Unemployed couldn't find a job. The number of people working part-time because of slack full-time jobs rose by 269,000. That speaks volumes to what I'm saying here. The most telling statistic here was the participation rate, which fell to 61.9. It's below 62 percent. And outside of the worst of the pandemic, when the entire economy was shut down, right, and nobody was working. This is the lowest US participation rate since February of 1977. The last time it was below 62%, that wasn't part of the pandemic, was in 1977. Not only that, it's a full one percentage point below the 80-year average that goes back to 78-year average, goes back to January 1948 since this number started. We're a full percent below the average since World War II, and we're the lowest since 1977 in terms of the people participating in the uh in the employment dynamic. Not only that, it gets worse because ours worked fell across the board by industries too. Our average uh earnings fell. Average weekly earnings thus got whacked for outright deflation, it's down. And this is a double-edged machete swiping both blades, uh, you know, cutting down the consumer. When you have outright deflation in weekly earnings in dollars, in dollar terms, how much you take home down in March from February, down, deflated. When gasoline, electricity, and all these other things, services particularly, skyrocketed in March. This is your stagflation right here. This is where your inflation becomes deflation on final demand. All right, and not only that, but the year-over-year rate of weekly earnings in the wage number for the BLS employment report dropped to 3.5. It was 4.3 coming into the year, and at 3.5 when CPI reported on Friday, rises to 3.3, real wage growth is 0.2 the lowest in three years, and that has been one buffer that has kind of held up the consumer to some degree. This hasn't been robust wage growth on a real basis, but it's been positive, and now that gap is closed, and that's a really good overlay chart, by the way, that we had in one of my just recent Global Macro Strategy reports. This is big, big time stuff, man. Um, now, like I said earlier, okay, that you have uh 2.4 million people that dropped out of the labor force. The flip side of that is the 12-month growth in non-farm payroll jobs is only 260,000. All right. Anytime it's been below a million, it has continued to trend into negative territory. Never has it dropped below a million and then gone back above a million. Ever. All right. And the times it's been below a million, seven of them before now in history, going back to 1971. That's where we always measure stuff again for the most part, because that's you know, when we delink the dollar from gold. Seven times have we been below a million. And what's interesting is a million is not as much now, given the labor market's so much more, you know, popular, populated. So, you know, to be below a million is not as big a deal, even relative. I mean, you know, like it should be below two million if you double the labor force. All right. So, you know, millions when you're really in trouble, even more so now than when it used to be. The times it used to be, 1974, I mean, Carter, massive recession, 1979, Volker raising rates, massive recession. 82, the back end of Volcker, 1991, Gulf War, recession, 2001, tech bubble, crash, recession, 2008, global financial crisis, recession, 2020, pandemic, recession. Every other time we've been below a million, we've gone into deflation in jobs and into a recession every time. Those are the seven times, every time. We then turn to the ISM services because the okay, okay, services have been strong, and this is true. Things that have been true have been some real wage growth, not robust, but some, and strength in services. ISM services has been relatively strong, and surprisingly so, frankly, not anymore. Okay. The employment dynamic, okay, which has been the growth in employment, has been services. So 70% of the economy has carried the labor market. All right, it's the only reason it's even could be considered solid by the biggest optimist out there, which would be Darwin Powell. When you talk about the ISM services, employment index fell from 51.8 to 45.2. That's a massive one-month decline. Below 50 is deflation. You're at 45.2. The percentage of firms saying they hired in March, 10%, down from 16% in February. The percentage of firms saying they let workers go, 18% in March, up from 12.5% at the end of the last year. So that's a big six percent percentage point swing. That's huge. It's just huge. Not only that, but six industries, they break it down in 18 service industries, six reported declining payrolls, five reported higher. But of the six that reported lower employment, two really caught my eye. Retail trade and transportation and warehousing, which is one category, transportation and warehousing. In other words, U.S. sales and transporting transporting the goods and warehousing the goods. All right. I mean, this is final demand uh 101 course is these two things where you are losing employees. Now, what's interesting about these two things is particularly transportation and warehousing. Why? Because also on a Wednesday, little looked at, but I always do, was the logistic man logistics manager survey, the LMI Logistics Managers Index skyrocketed 65.7, up from 61. That's a huge increase. And transportation price index was up 12.7 points to the highest since 2022, and really the second highest in history at 89.4. This is an index that goes to 100. You're talking about 89.4 transportation prices. Every component of the LMI, every one showed increased uh inflation. Inventory cost, warehousing prices, transportation prices. The aggregate for the price index for the logistic managers index is up 18.9% year to date in the first quarter. It's six percent above the previous three-year high, which was February of last year. I mean, this is big time stop. We go back to the ISM, and guess what we get? Lengthening delivery times. You get supply chain disruptions in the ISM services. It all ties together. You want stagflation? We'll take two indexes from the ISM service uh survey just published this past week. The activity index fell. The percent saying activity grew, fell by four percentage points. The percent saying activity fell rose by three and a half percentage points. So four percent flip. I mean, that's not chump change, all right? That's lower activity, uh lower growth in activity. Prices, well, prices, the prices of the percentage of firms saying prices rose jumped to 46% from 31%. 46 from 31. That's a 50% you know nominal increase. The percent of firms saying prices fell, 1% down from 4%. Not only that, love the list of commodities up or down in price, and certainly those in short supply is always in the ISM numbers. It's always a must-see. In March, you know, the April report for March, there were 12 new commodities up in price, which more than doubled the total. It was eight. We added 12, now there's 20 in one month. That's I mean, you don't see that 12 added in a single month. That is uh, I don't say it's you know totally rare, but it's very uncommon. Now, what's interesting is the breadth of the things that were added this month across the board in almost every kind of industry, even asphalt shingles. Think about building homes and roofs and even to the degree of you know, asphalt and road repair and all these kinds of different things that are going to cost more, especially for municipalities that don't have the money. Aluminum, steel, all kinds of things in aluminum, steel, building, electrical equipment. Think about the electrical grid, all the data center build outs, okay? Electricity prices, really high. We'll talk about that in a minute. And electrical equipment now is up in price just to get the equipment to produce electricity. Why? Because there's huge demand for it and a shortage of these things. Paper. Out of the blue, paper is higher in price. Servers, geez, surprise. All these data build build ads, and all of a sudden servers are costing more. Why? Because there isn't enough to go around. This is on that side, you're talking about you know, some of the technology uh being inflated because of demand. It's demand side push. Also, transportation cited by the ISM as being up in price. And then four final things that were added really interesting. Beef, food, energy, and oil. We'll talk about beef in a minute, because that's really interesting as it relates to the uh CPI numbers. But this is stagflation to the max. I mean, it really is. You know, activity down, prices up, longer delivery times, you know, shortage of supplies, number of commodities up in price more than doubles, all against a labor market that is deflating. Deflating. Clearly, clearly, and few people are willing to admit it or talk about it, or I don't know, see it. But then you got CPI, and that was the dagger in the back of the consumer. I said you get another run in CPI, which you will. You will have a breakout, then a correction, lower, uh, higher lows, and then higher highs, and that pattern has played out precisely. The move to 3.3 is your higher high, be leaving behind a higher low. It's a fresh breakout on a long-term technical secular picture, certainly from the long term as it applies to what the Fed's going to have to do coming down the pike because of how really weak the consumer is, especially with this CPI number. Double digits annualized for the month at 0.9. Gasoline, the largest month recorded by CPI, up 21.2%, the highest ever since they started calculating gasoline prices in 1967. Since the Vietnam War, this is the single biggest increase in gasoline prices ever in the U.S. Fuel oil up 30%. Think about that also as this applies, you know, in Europe, for example. The highest since February of 2000, 25-year high. And electricity, you can't escape the electricity thing. You know, I mean, I don't drive a lot because I have my home office and so on and so forth. But you know, the people that drive, they're getting crushed. I paid$94 to fill up my tank this this morning on my way back from the gym. Electricity, 4.6. 4.6. Everyone is paying that. You know it. Electricity is through the roof. And and the statistic is 4.6%. All right. Now they talk about you know the one of the couple of the things that are you know disinflated. Shelter is one of them, and yes, it's disinflated. What we said it would because rents were too high, and uh the housing market all of a sudden was bobbed up by investors who then wanted to rent and turn around and have kept positive cash flow, and it became you know over overdone, especially here in Palm Beach. I mean, prices, even rental prices have come down a little bit, but really they're very sticky, and still the high end is very high. But they people are talking about food. Food was at 2.7, and it's like, oh, okay, food's okay, it's only 2.7. It's 70 basis points or 35 percent above the Fed's target rate, first of all. And then 1.6 year-over year deflation in dairy, 0.9% year-over-year deflation in meat and eggs. All right, well, guess what? Cattle prices just hit a new all-time high above two dollars and fifty cents per pound on the wholesale market. Cattle uh on feed report came out last week, one of the things I always watch, and we're long cattle for our managed accounts, showed uh the basically, let's put it this way you take calves and cattle and all the dynamics that go into the cattle industry, which I find fascinating. Um, bottom line gives you a multi-decade low in supply. I mean, so the question becomes what high, you know, is there a higher price where people stop eating beef? You know, I don't know. The thing about poultry is kind of up in the air, but in terms of all of this, it's really only because of kind of the cattle, beef, dairy, and meat that inflation in food is lower than 3% because fruits and vegetables 4.0% year over year. Non-alcoholic beverages up 4.7%. Food away from home is above three, cereal and bakery up 2.1%, they're all above the target rate. And just now, within the last week, NOAA, uh N-O-A-A, National Oceanographic Institute, something like that. I mean, I don't know the exact uh name of the uh no, it's just NOAA. All right. Uh their models for El Nino were 65%. If you remember last time I talked about this of an El Nino by June, it's now 80%. And they are putting a 25% probability that it'll be the worst El Nino situation we've ever seen. And we've talked about why that could be because of the other environmental dynamics going on right now with the planet and where we are in the solar system, where we are rather in the galaxy, in the Milky Way. And all that feeds into what could be a really stressful summer for some of these crops. Already, you know, there's a lot of them that could be affected: cocoa, coffee, sugar, certainly the grains, soybeans, wheat, corn, cotton, for example, not a food, but an ag commodity that could be hugely affected, already breaking out. These are the things you're gonna want to watch, and we'll talk more about that towards the end of today's podcast. But bottom line, it comes down to the consumer because it, you know, this is all impacting the consumer. And how I would I said another rise in inflation will be a dagger in the back of consumer final demand growth. And guess what? Let's look at the consumer real quick, just the brush strokes of things that we've already talked about on this podcast. We just came off the only the third ever 12-month deflation in revolving credit, all right, from December of 24, just lasted through into January. Now, you had a little bump, but a lot of that is kind of seasonal and it is kind of the base effect to whatever extent. But already in the year to date, just two months, you're down one and a half percent. The nominal 12-month growth in revolving credit is only 23.3 billion. Anything below 20 is the danger zone. You want to see it above 40, not that that's the academically right thing to have a high credit growth, but we're talking about consumer final demand, which is dependent on credit. So we're not saying right or wrong, credit, not credit. It's just the facts. This is the dynamic that is there's the fuel that drives the consumer final demand. All right. Bottom line, right? We are still 25 billion below the high that was set in October of 2024. So revolving credit has not grown in like 18 months. That's a problem, you know, when you're talking about the consumer and the other background that is basically kind of become prohibitive to borrowing more money. And I've said this repeatedly and figuring this is one of those things where it's uh, you know, it's a broken clock. At some point I'm gonna be right to keep saying it enough. You know, I really try to avoid those kinds of situations, but this is one of them where at some point the consumer would be unable or unwilling to continue to borrow this, you know, to live in discretionary spending when they have to spend all their money on what they need. All right, credit card debt is above personal savings. Real wages, we just got 0.2. It's the lowest in three years. The delinquency rate on credit cards, the second highest ever, behind only the global financial crisis. Subprime auto loan delinquency is the highest ever. Student debts back, a couple trillion dollars, a trillion and a half. And even in the Fed surveys, now you're seeing the people earning above$100,000 a year, their attitude is shifting, where they now expect that their income growth will be flat relative to higher inflation expectations. Those below 100,000 are really hurting. And they're saying basically we expect our real income to deflate by two to two and a half percent, and they're cutting spending back to only one percent growth expected in the next 12 months. This is a problem. Now let's circle back and bring home the point of 2.4 million people dropping out of the labor market in the last 12 months. Because the Fed and the Treasury and the government, you know, the BLS, whoever, they're gonna tell you 4.3% is the unemployment rate. I would say that the U6, the all-in unemployment rate, rose to 8%, by the way, from 7.9. But here's the crux of the matter, man. You had a half a million dropouts in March, 2.4 million over 12 months. You subtract the 260,000 jobs that were created, and you have a dropout rate of 2.14 million over the last 12 months. If you add that to the 7.2 million unemployed that goes against the 4.3 rate that the BLS gives us, against 167 million employed, you add that 2.14 million to the number unemployed instead of dropped out of the labor force, they were unemployed considered because they are. The unemployment rate would not be 4.3. It would be 5.6. 5.6. And the Fed would be between a rock and a hard place where they're gonna end up anyway, in trying to decide whether to go with inflation or go with the consumer. And they will choose the consumer and inflation be damned and the dollar be damned. But that's another step away. I mean, they might even tighten first, all right? And that's what the markets are saying. But this is why the University of Michigan can. Consumer survey that came out on Friday showed us three of their indicators consumer sentiment, consumers uh uh uh feeling about the current economic condition, and their personal financial condition. All three hit record lows, the lowest since World War II. This data goes back to February of 1952. 1952. These are the lowest ever, which means the current consumer sentiment in the U.S. is lower than it was during the Carter years. The 70s, wage price spiral, inflation, hostages in Iran, gas lines, shortages, odd and even fill-up days. I remember that. All right. 7981, when Volcker lifted interest rates to 20% to the deinflation, and he did it by crushing final demand. And it was one of the worst recessions ever. 1991, the sentiment is worse now than the first Gulf War, which led to a really bad recession. And the first time we ever had nominal ZERP, meaning that was the first time Greenspan cut the Fed funds rate to 3% when inflation was 3%, meaning a zero real rate, and people went ballistic that this is going to cause inflation. They didn't realize you have to start QE. That's when the inflation thing goes, and that's when the debt black hole starts to consume you. We are feeling worse now than the post-tech bubble crash and the recession that followed. The NASDAQ lost like 86%. We feel worse now than then. We feel worse now when the global financial system globally almost melted down and you had a mini depression. We feel worse now. And we feel worse than the worst time, the worst period during the global economic shutdown during the pandemic. Sentiment is worse now than any of those times in U.S. history. Now, University of Michigan, grain of salt, I get it, I get it, I get it. Not going to get political on this podcast to the degree that it does, you know, whether it impacts markets or not. This impacts markets. Now, what I find interesting is the because the uh core CPI, the non-energy CPI, was still below three, you know, all the pop media, the talking heads on television, were celebrating it like it was a good number. And the comments, two two comments that came out of I won't say who, all right, but you know, primary news networks. The odds of a rate cut are rising now with the CPI behind us. And the other one was traders adding to rate cut bets after CPI number. It's just not true. I don't get this false narrative where they're saying the market expects rate cuts. There is no market that I'm seeing, except for the stock market, which you can't, you know, judge. You can't, you know, uh you can't uh basically judge you know measure it. It's saying there's gonna be a rate cut. The 12-month overnight interest rate swap is 3.67. December end of this year, Fed funds futures 3.65. The two-year note yield 3.8. All three of these measuring out to the end of 2027. Okay, excuse me. Well, measuring out to the end of the first quarter next year, because we haven't gotten to the 2027 yet. Measuring out to the first end of the first quarter next year, the end of March next year. All three of these rates are above the current midpoint of the current Fed funds target range. 3.625 is the midpoint. OIS 367, Fed funds 365, midpoint 3625. Every one of them is above the midpoint, which implies zero percent probability the Fed will cut will cut rates between now and the end of the first quarter next year. And it gets worse because the 2027 Fed Funds Futures swap rates, the 12-month swap rate for next year, is 37.5 basis points. What does that mean? It means that the market expects the Fed to move the Fed funds rate to the upside by 37.5 basis points next year, which means a 25 basis point increase is 100% implied. All right. And the second hike, if you take the 25 from the 37 and a half, you're left with 12 and a half. That's one half of a of a another 25 basis point cut. One half means 50% implied probability that the Fed will hike rates twice next year. Twice and take the Fed funds rate above four. Why? Because inflation will probably be there. And if the labor market keeps giving us this false sense of security, this is gonna end up being a policy error, and it's gonna be bad. It's gonna be bad. Now, what's interesting is the Fed minutes, I liken it to the Wizard of Oz. You have the the you know the the talking head, the uh you know, on the on the screen and the fire and the the throne and the whole nine yards, and he says the increase in energy prices will be short-lived. And I'm quoting from the Fed minutes. Disinflation will bring inflation back to our 2% target by the end of next year. And then the curtain falls open. You see the guy pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, the bumbling guy who's there, like, oh, where's the anti-inflation lever? All right, well, what happened to the labor market uh is solid button. I gotta flash that one. Oh my god, I'm so confused. I mean, bottom line is the Fed said we're neutral, but we have a hawkish bias. Well, what to do in that situation is not good for stocks. Stocks will rally at the end of a war, assuming we get there, all right. But then it's gonna be an economic reality check, and the economic reality check's not gonna be pleasant for stocks, all right? And when we look at something like that, you know, we really look at where where is kind of the dynamic in stocks, all right. We're talking about things like the PNQI, the internet retailer, all right. We're talking about the XLI, the uh SP uh Consumer Discretionary Index. We're talking about the XRT, SP retailer index. We're talking about MasterCard. MasterCard has led the market higher and is now bidding to lead the market lower and is implying that there's 1600 downside points at risk in the SP 500. That's not it's at 6,600. MasterCard is implying a sub-5,000 SP 500, and it has been a phenomenal leading indicator. Why not? Because it's the credit card king, which gets back to the consumer, and the consumer is in trouble, and MasterCard's breaking down, it's breaking its long-term multi-year uptrend, and relative to the SP and a ratio spread is breaking down, and when you overlay the two, it's a it's an amazing chart. Shoot me an email, I'll send you a copy of it. It was in one of my GMSRs just recently. I've been highlighting on this. But there's another story waiting to break when the war is over, or even maybe before the war even ends. Taiwan. The opposition leader in Taiwan, okay, and the opposition in Taiwan, okay, because you have the ruling party and the opposition party. Well, the opposition party is the party that ran mainland China from 1912 to 1949 before Mao and his uh and Xi's dad in part, you know, had the revolution and took over the country. All right. These this party led the the fleeing to Taipei and Taiwan, all right. This woman is highly educated. We're talking, you know, Temple Beasley Law School, Cambridge, you know, doctorate, PhD, you know, very well spoken, very educated. All right. She's the now the leader since November of the opposition party, okay, who has called the Communist Party tyrannical. I mean, she's really been harsh, but that's all changed. All right. Since November, she's been singing a different song, all right. She is she actually was the one that caused her party to block in the Taiwan parliament. The bill that would have created a more deficit for Taiwan would have gone to five percent of GDP in their deficit to buy U.S. weapons and weapons technology to defend against China. Her party, led by her, blocked that vote and shot it down, literally and figuratively, so that the U.S. not selling weapons to Taiwan, which is something that Xi was very much against. It was gonna be a big deal if the U.S. did that and if Taiwan accepted. Now, this woman made overtures to Xi to sit down and has been doing this for several months, and Xi finally accepted. This is landmark, all right, and it's particularly landmark because of what this woman has said in the last two weeks. Okay, I'm gonna quote her now. Or her name is Cheng, C-H-E-N-G-C. Could it be that the United States is treating Taiwan as a chess piece, a pawn, to strategically provoke the Chinese Communist Party? I want all Taiwanese people to be able to proudly and confidently say I am Chinese. At least 90% of Taiwan's culture, history, and bloodline are Chinese. We speak Chinese, we write Chinese characters, we eat Chinese food, and we worship Chinese gods. Taiwan and the mainland should join forces to reach new heights in human civilization. That's huge. That is, first of all, really well said. All right. This is major overtures. Can you imagine China takes in Taiwan without firing a shot? And the U.S. is just out of the picture and reunited, and they make a deal with Iran and the Straits and the whole nine yards, and the U.S. takes off. And what's the U.S. doing? Now we've pissed off NATO, the UK, Canada, all our trading partners. They're all down talking deals with China. I mean, when this war is over, the dollar is big time at risk. Big time at risk. I mean, this to me is just a huge story that is really, you know, Spain and Italy refusing to help the U.S. I mean, you know, the UK won't send ships. I mean, it's really bad. And Trump has just been such a bully, and I just wish he'd keep his mouth shut and just do his job, and he'd been doing a great job. I mean, this constant bombastic self-congratulatory bragging, bullying, you know, some of the some of the language he uses. It's not necessary. It's not necessary, man. And it's only pissing people off to the degree that even you're you're making it more difficult to make sure that the Republicans maintain a majority in the in the legislative branch in come November. So this is really bad too when you take all this together. Dollars at risk puts gold and silver back in play. Food commodities are in play. El Nino's in play, all right. And I think a reality checks coming for stocks. First rally, but that rally is to be sold. Watch MasterCard, watch the XLY, the XRT, the PNQI. And I'll tell you what, I'm going to do something I haven't done ever on the podcast in four seasons. I'm going to offer you a free trial subscription to my daily research, the Global Macro Strategy Report for the rest of April. GMSR, and let me send you a couple of this week's pieces because I think they're important that you see them. We also include recommendations in all the markets with stop loss levels, even. All right, and foreign exchange, the ag commodities, bonds everywhere, metals, precious and base metals, energy, stock indexes, ETFs, and we do a lot of work on the quant side with individual stocks in the SP 500 with all the mining shares. I mean, it's a treasure trove of information. And you get 100% of me in terms of I don't hold back. There's no tiers of service and so on and so forth. Sign up for I mean, just shoot me an email with G M S R in the subject line, and I will give you the rest of APA for free, just so you can check it out. Follow me, of course, on Twitter at Weldon Live. You can email me on email me that request, Greg Weldon, G-R-E-G W E L D O N at Weldononline.com. Okay. Follow the podcast, like us, share us. You know, let's get the word out because really the idea here, that's why we don't charge for the podcast, is to help people out there. And in this case, also follow the podcast at money underscore podcast. That's it for this podcast. Thanks a lot. Catch you on the rebound.