Sudan Marks Two Years of War

The North African country of Sudan marks two years of war this week. The fighting between rival military factions – the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – has killed an estimated 150,000 people and forced more than 15 million people from their homes. Almost 25 million people face acute hunger, according to United Nations agencies. It’s the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. 

How did Sudan get to this point? What’s the current state of play in Sudan, and where does the country -- and the international community trying to support it -- go from here? 

Joining the show to answer some of these crucial questions two years into the war in Sudan is Quscondy Abdulshafi. He is a Senior Regional Advisor at Freedom House and has more than a decade of experience working on governance, democracy, and human rights in Africa and the United States.  

Show Notes:

• Quscondy Abdulshafi's article for Just Security, "Two Years of War in Sudan: From Revolution to Ruin and the Fight to Rise Again"
• Just Security Podcast episode “Assessing the Origins, Dynamics, and Future of Conflict in Sudan” with Executive Editor Matiangai Sirleaf, and three experts, Laura Nyantung Beny, Nisrin Elamin, Hamid Khalafallah, on Oct. 11, 2024.  
• Just Security Sudan Archive
• Music: “Broken” by David Bullard from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/david-bullard/broken (License code: OSC7K3LCPSGXISVI)

Transcript

Viola Gienger: The North African country of Sudan marks two years of war this week. The fighting between rival military factions, the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has killed an estimated 150,000 people and forced more than 15 million people from their homes. Almost 25 million people face acute hunger, according to the United Nations. It's the world's worst humanitarian crisis. How did Sudan get to this point? What's the current state of play in Sudan, and where does the country and the international community trying to support it go from here? This is the Just Security podcast. I'm your host, Viola Gienger, Just Security’s Washington Senior Editor. 

Joining the show to answer some of these crucial questions two years into the war in Sudan is Quscondy Abdulshafi. He's a senior regional advisor at Freedom House and has more than a decade of experience working on governance, democracy and human rights in Africa and the United States. He's the author of a new article published by Just Security titled, “Two Years of War in Sudan: From Revolution to Ruin and the Fight to Rise Again.”

Quscondy, thank you so much for joining us. 

Quscondy Abdulshafi: Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you for hosting me.

Viola: So, let's start with, if you could give us a little bit of backdrop to the war and the two military figures who are leading this power struggle — what was happening in the run up to the war, and who are these two guys? 

Quscondy: Yes, these two generals have a very long history of connections. First of all, General Burhan, he's been discerned as military person from Darfur. And in the past at least 25 to 30 years, in the region where there is any stability and conflict, the central government, including the previous democratic government, and the Islamists in the past 30 years, played along ethnic lines to control the region and agitate conflicts along ethnic lines between Arabs and native Africans in the region. 

General Burhan was one of the military intelligence leaders who are stationed in central Darfur especially Zalingei, my hometown. And in those years, he and other military leaders played a key role into recruitment, mobilization, supporting of the militia that ended up in 2003 as strong as government allies in the genocidal war in the region. And that is also the period where Burhan, you know, who has always been historically out of the circles of the top, you know, Islamist military leaders in Khartoum, he was always being in the field and in the margin, saw this as an opportunity for him to come to Khartoum with some sort of power. And Hemedti was a tool, because they also gained a lot of, you know, money and resources in the due process of recruitment and extraction of the mineral. 

However, he did not anticipate that Hemedti will settle for a second man. So, during the transitional process, suddenly he found that Hemedti actually had an ambition to be the top man, and in that process, he has to go defeat him. And due to that, he retaliated and reacted. And that is why, when the transitional process was going, and mediation was trying to have a conversation with civilian democratic forces to create a transitional government, the big problem that was hidden was a problem between these two men, and that problem exploded in April 15, 2023.

Viola: Thank you. That's really helpful for the backdrop. Sudan has had a remarkable history of nonviolent civic resistance to autocratic rulers. Tell us a little bit about that, and especially the period leading up to this particular war and the revolution that toppled Bashir?

Quscondy: Yes, Sudan has a very rich history of nonviolent movement. The independence movement was also started as a nonviolent movement. That was culminated in the full independence in 1956. In 1964, Sudanese actually put out the one of the first largest civil resistance and protests that have moved one of Africa's dictators, General Abu. The same they did in April 1985, and that also led into the changing of General Nimeiri and toppling due to the large civic resistance and protests in Khartoum and other larger cities across the country. 

This is the legacy of the trade unions, associations, organizations across the country that are very much enshrined within the society and have a very strong capability of grassroot organizing. And in the past 30 years of this regime, of the Islamist regime, these groups are very much targeted. But despite all the targeting, they remained in the silos of the university students, in the silos of the diaspora organizing groups, and that was led, again, back into the largest protest of Sudan, moving Bashir from power in 2018. So, the country has a very much structured civil resistance movement that comes from the diverse direction, including women, youth groups, professional unions, associations, students and political parties. And that is kind of a bit unique structure that the country has, and it has a history and legacy, and it is very much visible that Sudan, since the independence, has never stopped from having a civil war. 

However, most of the toughest dictators in the country's history, where none of them have been moved by military coup or even by the civil war, they are all removed by the nonviolent movement, which shows the success of the nonviolent movement in the country's political history. 

Viola: That's really impressive — the resilience of the society and their determination to pursue a life of freedom and opportunity and democracy to the extent that has been part of the goal over the years. Tell us a little bit about your personal experience in Sudan and with these kinds of movements. 

Quscondy: Like many people in my age, we were born or at least raised — we went to the school when we found Islamist in the government, and a person like me growing up in the rural Darfur, in central Darfur, for us, we were actually born into the deep structural inequality, structural injustice, but also how the central government have used the local social structures to wage genocidal war, and that results — you know, I have witnessed a massacre and civil war when I was a child in 1989 ,which was even before this government, but it continues in the same structure. 

So, when I came to school and I came to university, the first thing is to actually use our education, to use the platforms of the students to start nonviolent movement. Unfortunately, the year I came to university in 2003, that is when the new wave of violence and genocide started. And having known the history of what was happening earlier in 1980s and early 90s, I knew this is going to be even worse kind of war. And that's where we start nonviolent organizing in the universities, protests, but also building students’ movement that can at least raise awareness of what is happening and connect, you know, larger global movement for anti-genocide outside Sudan, to actually be able to inform Sudanese people who are very much uninformed of what is happening in Darfur at that time. 

And that is my sort of involvement. I start on the human rights and peace-building movement, as, you know, nonviolent organizing movement at the University of Khartoum in 2003, and as a result, I had to leave Sudan, and I work on the diaspora for past, you know, almost two decades now. And I think, you know, that is also a history of several other Sudanese who have actually aspired for human rights, democracy. Everyone pays the price in the past 30 years, and as a result, we are very disappointed to see, you know, the revolutions that are very much successful in 2018. Again, the military are trying to tell us a story that arms actually solve — or arms actually brings democracy, or arms actually can solve anyone's problem in Sudan. 

Everyone is reflecting and thinking back. It's now, the question is, what if the country we were fighting is not going to exist any longer? What if, you know, the worst scenario that actually exists now, where we have 80 percent of the civilians in the country are living on the brink of deaths, what if all of these will not get a solution? 

Viola: How would you explain to Americans and Europeans who might be in a position to support a sustainable end to this war, why it's important for them to do so?

Quscondy: Sudan is the mother of all Sahara region, and this is not only for political or economy, but also for social connectivity along the desert. And that's why any conflict in Sudan has never stayed in Sudan. And currently, if you see the way this conflict unfolds, it is not Darfur, it is not Khartoum. It is several other cities and towns across the region that are at risk if this conflict is not resolved. All of this can have an implication on the stability of Ethiopia, stability in Egypt and all even around the Red Sea shore. 

And I think it is very important that understanding not only for regional security and international security dynamic, but also the amount of the people who are permanently displaced. In the large civil war, like what happens in the Congo, people displaced from, you know, rural areas to city, but when it comes to the extremist ideologies or wars, people move permanently, and that is where you induce the high amount of the migrations. And I think even for the immigration perspective, for instance, the European country have so much interest to actually invest a lot into the security and stability of Sudan. This connectivity, this is a historic resource, also the Sudan, because if you are having a stable Sudan with a stable governance structure and security sector, it can actually contribute so much to ease peace and security across this region. The future of the stability on whole Horn and Sahara region depends on the international community's ability to address and resolve the conflict in Sudan. If that does not happens, the future looks very, very dark.

Viola: That's really a good explanation of just how broad and sweeping the potential consequences can be of this conflict. Speaking of the international community, there is an international conference in London this week to raise, fund money for humanitarian aid for Sudan. Tell us just briefly now what is the current state of play in Sudan, sort of, during these weeks, and what are your biggest fears and biggest hopes at this stage? 

Quscondy: You know, addressing humanitarian issue is very important, but it's also a key access to be able to zoom in to see closely how can it be done to control the conflict. But the state of play in Sudan, currently, it is a war since the war start, because this is the first time in the past, during Eid, Ramadan, Eid, I think two weeks or three weeks ago, is the first time where both top commanders in their address vowed not to do a negotiation or not to reach any peace agreement.

And that shows how far we are with regard to any conversation to end hostilities, but also the dynamics of the conflict are actually giving into more to partition, which is a very dangerous scenario, not only to the Sudan, but also to the entire region. 

I think it is also very dire time because of the global aid, but that has a lot of implications. And people in Sudan who are, you know, starving currently, and you know, under intense genocidal campaign, particularly like people in Al Fashir city, who are being victimized by the RSF ethnic cleansing campaign, are very far of thinking about what the world is currently doing, because it's been, that's been going on for a past year, and I hope, just in having hope that this time, at least something concrete coming beyond just collecting resources or committing to resources that actually takes long time for countries that are committed to actually pay, but to move beyond that, to actually find a mechanism to provide those aid and protect those who are trapped inside the conflict, and at least is, you know, prevent a new saga of genocide in the region and in Sudan at all.

Viola: Thank you, Quscondy, so much for all of that. Just so valuable to have your perspective and it's so clear that the international community's response to and work with Sudanese society to try to resolve this conflict is so important and will reflect a lot on the values of the international community going forward. Thank you very much. 

Quscondy: Thank you and thank you for having me. Really appreciate it. 

Viola: This episode was hosted by me, Viola Gienger, and produced by Maya Nir with help from Pooja Shah and Clara Apt. Special thanks to our guest, Quscondy Abdulshafi. You can read his article, “Two Years of War in Sudan: From Revolution to Ruin and the Fight to Rise Again,” as well as additional coverage on the situation in Sudan, on the Just Security website. And for a deeper dive into the war and its context, check out our previous podcast episode on the subject, co-hosted by Just Security Executive Editor Matiangai Sirleaf, in conversation with three experts at the University of Michigan, the University of Toronto and the University of Manchester. If you enjoyed this or any of our episodes, please give us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen.