Real Property St Pete

January 2025 Market Report

• David Vann

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The hosts, Julie Jones and David Vann, discuss the January 2025 real estate market statistics. Key points include:

  1. Market Overview:
    • Closed Sales: Up 13% year-over-year, signaling positive market movement.
    • Cash Sales: Increased by 15%, with cash buyers representing 46% of sales.
    • New Listings: Up 14.5%, contributing to a 28% increase in active inventory.
    • Pending Inventory: Down 3%, indicating slower absorption.
  2. Inventory and Pricing Trends:
    • Active inventory rose 28% overall and 43% for single-family homes, resembling a shift toward a buyer's market.
    • Median sale prices dropped 4.4%, marking a rare decline after years of growth.
    • Average sale prices fell 6.5%, largely due to fewer high-end property sales.
  3. Market Dynamics:
    • Sellers are facing more competition, requiring strategic pricing and motivated positioning.
    • Open houses are drawing crowds, but buyers are cautious, often waiting for price reductions before acting.
    • Homes in move-in-ready condition or offering unique features are selling faster.
  4. Notable Trends by Price Point:
    • Sales growth was strongest in the $200K–$600K range.
    • Lower-priced homes saw significant percentage increases, though actual sales volume remains low.
  5. Advice for Sellers:
    • Pricing strategy is crucial; overpricing can result in prolonged market time.
    • Price reductions are becoming standard to signal seller motivation.

The podcast emphasizes that the market is shifting from a seller's market to a more balanced or buyer-favored environment, requiring sellers to be flexible and realistic in their expectations.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you!

Well, good morning. Good morning. Is it morning still? Cause we just, we've been talking a while. So we haven't might've talked to the morning away. It's close. It's 11. So not really morning. Right. And we've had plenty of coffee. Yes. So I feel like we're really juiced up for this. Okay. So, it is time to talk about the January statistics. I know it's March, but they don't come out till late February. So we just got them you know, a couple of weeks ago and we putting out our December statistics and our January statistics and it's been a lot to learn and we've been working on a lot of stuff and we've been really busy, especially you. Yes. I have a lot of listings, right? You want to share how many listings you have or 15, 15. That's a lot of listings. It's a lot. That's that's getting close to maxing me out, but two of them are closing this week, so that's good. That's a lot of work. I don't know too many people who could do that, but you can. I can handle it. I mean, that's great. And people are getting on vacation all last week and somehow managed. I wanted to talk about your vacation, but I didn't know if I should talk about your vacation and your 15 listings at the same time. No, all my clients were aware and I had good help from you and Nicole. Yes. And it was your birthday. And it was my birthday. It was a good week. That was vacation was amazing. I bet. I bet it was really fun. My daughter's last spring break of her whole life. Oh my God. Yes. Well, maybe she'll be an academic and she can still have spring break and summers off. Not likely, but maybe she likes to work. She does like to work. So that's good. She's a fantastic young lady. Thank you. You know that We're very fortunate to have very amazing children Well, it helps to be a realtor you get to spend some time with the kids and you get to control the schedule. You work a lot, but a lot of times you're able to sort of control what's happening. So you know, and help people be successful, but also be there to serve their needs when the time comes. Yeah. We're very fortunate. Work from home and you know, be around exactly. Even if we're working, we're around. Right. So, so we're going to start with some numbers, right? We'll start with some numbers I'm Julie Jones with Smith and Associates real estate and I'm David Vann with remaxed metro and this is the Real property CP podcast. We're here to talk about the January 2025 statistics there is a combined report that comes on the first page and it includes single families, townhomes and condos. In the overall market, we were up 13 percent in terms of actual closed sales from January 25 from January 24. I love that result. That means the overall market is moving and there's some stuff happening, but paid in cash was up 15 percent 566 versus 492 New pending sales was pretty flat up just 1 percent new listings is up 14 and a half percent 2600 versus 2275 that's poignant Yep. We're going to talk a lot about new listings and you have 15 new listings. So I understand why that's the micro example of what's happening on the overall market. And this is what we're reading. The pending inventory is down 3%. That's, that's kind of an odd statistic, but we'll work on it. And the biggest one is that up 28 percent is the active inventory. So we're almost 7, 000 listings in January of 2025 active versus 5, 400. That's a 28 percent increase to the active listings. You know, that's kind of feels scary to me because It's reminiscent of short sale days. Do you remember the numbers were like 13, 000 listings? I do. I remember that number. Cause I'm like, I use these statistics with every appointment and I would talk about the absorption rate every time. when there's 13, 000 properties for sale. You got to do something different. Yeah. That is crazy. I mean, basically that number's half of that. Yeah. Yeah. 6, 900 listings. That's a lot. 7, 000 is it's still a lot of listings compared to where we've been. Yes. And we're going to get to the month supply of inventory, which is four. And that's a landmark because we haven't been at four months of inventory The overall absorption rate 26 percent on single family homes, which is again, four months because 25 percent is four months to sell all of the listings. And in the condos, it's 11%. 11 percent is the lowest we've ever seen. And that's like, 10 months of inventory right? It is. a low absorption rate means that homes are selling slowly. So just to recap that, and that's a transition into a buyer's market. So while a high absorption rate means that homes are selling quickly, it suggests a seller's market, which we've been in for the last many years. This is a huge shift that seems to be sticking. But it's just clear, like people are, people were still questioning what kind of market are we in a buyer's or seller's market, there's a definitive picture at this point. I think that properties do sell quickly when they're in really nice condition. I mean, we do see the one off. But just cause you see one property so quickly, cause it's fantastic and it's priced very reasonably, it's going to go right away. Cause you know, our contractors are very busy here. you're looking for roofers, trying to get somebody out there. The roofers are quite busy. I mean, some of them are three months out on getting to your house and some of them are available to do repairs for inspections, getting someone to come in and improve your home, like replace the floors and stuff like that. some of those lead times are long. So I think that also drives a really nice house is going quickly. Move in ready. Yes. Move in ready. So moving over to the single family homes, the closed sales was up 23 percent 7 0 7 versus 5 74. The paid in cash, hold on. Cause I feel like when we were going through these numbers, that feels confusing based on the combined statistics. So this is, this is helpful to point that out. These numbers are slightly different than the combined statistics between single family condo and townhomes, right? So this is just single family homes the closed sales are up. I think what we'll see is that the number of listings coming on the market is well outpacing the number of sales that are happening. Yes, the sales are up, but the active listings are up 43%. Where the sales are up 23%. I mean, so I think about those numbers. If we have a combined inventory of almost 7, 000 properties yeah, 7, 000 active, 1, 000 sold. So the solds on the combined is up 13%, but the inventory is up 28%. Right. On the single family, the closed are up 23%. But the supply is up 43%. Okay. Right. They're very similar. They're proportionate based on the type of property it is, but you're right on target when you talk about what sold versus how much more inventory there is. We talked about the December statistics having so many more cash sales and we're going to see another statistic later, but this one is 36 percent higher, 325 properties in January of 25 sold for all cash. And in January of 24, only 240 properties sold for all cash. that's an increase of 36 percent it's almost half of the sales. I mean, numbers only 36, but it's, yeah, that's what we found later on in the stats was that it was really almost half the sales or cash. That's crazy. We'll get to that actual number later, in that comes into the price point again. It's hard to pay all cash for, you know, 5 million house. So these are the lower priced houses, which is where we're seeing all of this activity between 300 and 600, 000. It's just so many houses selling and so many more coming on the market. It's a, it's a lot of action. You know, but this is the first time we've seen the actual median sale price go down. So half the houses sell above this number, half the houses sell below this number. And this number is 435, 000 in January and that's down 4. 4 percent and we don't often see the median sale price go down. No, it's been many years for that also. Yes. We can look at median sale price and go back a long ways and not find it down four and a half percent. And we've been seeing average sale price go down. The average sale prices is down six and a half percent, five 85 versus six 25. And we know the average sale prices are based on the higher priced properties selling there's less of them now, right? There's less of them selling. I mean, that's pretty much a flat curve. We didn't go back and look at everything over the past year. But we know that those higher price houses are not selling there. You don't have the super high price houses selling. There's so many waterfront properties that are higher price that are, you know, flooded and not selling it's a, and when they sell, they clearly sell for much less than that would have sold a year ago, right? So the average sale price, which that is affected by those higher price sales is down six and a half percent. It's been down several times lately. So that's five 85. The total dollar volume is up 15%, 413 versus three 60. And the next really interesting statistic was that the reduction in price from original Price to the sale price is now 93.8%. We've hovered around 95 for quite a while and now this is a one and a half percent reduction off of that 95.2 in January of 24 and 93.8 in January of 25. I think the important point to make is that. A seller lists their property. They need to have an expectation that there's going to be negotiation and it's going to be more than they might've expected. Right and usually because it comes from a original list price, it almost always includes a price reduction also. So I mean, if you, you know, that's a great point, cause I've had a lot of clients say, I don't want to have price reductions on my listing and I've said. You need to let go of that position. Yes. If your home isn't selling and you want to sell, you're going to have to make a price reduction. There's no choice. Yeah. I mean, and it doesn't really matter what you set the list price at. Almost always there's a price reduction just seems like buyers are looking for. A seller to show that they're motivated. That's just a theory that I have. I don't know what you think. I agree. That's actually exactly what I've been telling people when they're listed for more than 30 days and say, well, what, why am I not getting offers? And I've said, the buyers are waiting to see your motivation, right? If they don't have to make a decision right now, there's the one off of someone who needs housing now, but the rest of the people who are in a. I don't have to make a decision, not a time crunch. They're waiting for the most motivated sellers. You know what I think is coming of that too, is that the open houses are exceptionally successful. There's a lot of people going to these open houses. And you know, but they're not necessarily making an appointment with their realtor to go see houses. I mean, that's, so it's a shift that's a little unusual. It is. I reduced a price this week because we've been on the market for two weeks. We've had five people come to an open house and we've had no showings. It's a great house. So I don't know what to say about that, but we went ahead and reduced the price after two weeks. They get it. The buyers need to know that the seller's motivated. That's the bottom line. Like we would have expected the days on market, the median time to contracts 38 days. So, half of them are more, half of them are less, but 38 days, that's the number to go to contract. And then the median time to sale is 73 days. That's all been pretty consistent. It's stayed at that level. New pending sales are up. And then, We have a 43 percent increase in the number of active listings like we talked about. And overall that creates an absorption rate in a month supply 4 that's up 43 percent compared to January of 24, which was 2. 8 months. I said I wasn't going to say oof much, but that one deserving. Okay. So we're going to move through a couple more of these cash sales are up 36 percent 325 cash sales last month in December was up 43 percent 379 and cash sales as a percentage of closed sales for January of 25 is 46%. So that's what we were talking about. It's up 10. 6 percent over the same month last year. But that means that 46 percent of the closings were All cash significant. Well, I mean, when you, there's a lot lower price points now too, for people to be able to pay cash, right? And the interest rates are seven and a half percent. Median sale price again, down 4. 4 percent in January of last year was up 14%. So just a comparison of where we were and then we've made this point. Previously, but I think it's important to hone in on that piece of information, which is, it's very important to not be overpricing your home in this current market. There's no doubt about it. Or if you feel like you have overpriced the home, you need to quickly reduce the price, get closer to where the buyers will consider it if you want to sell. We talked about this median percent of original list price received hitting this 93 number. You know, there's not been anything close to that in the past, 13 months. I think the new listings number is up 25. 5%, 1440 versus last year was 1147. So that That's a big increase, 25 percent of new listings. And then I, you know, in the active listings are up 43%. So 3, 300 single family homes for sale versus last year, there was 2, 300 single family homes for sale. You're feeling that in your business and we wanted to talk a little bit about listings our own listings I have several listings coming on board and I have several listings on the market right now Not as many as you but I think a lot of realtors are getting listings and putting them on the market and that's what's causing this. And, you know, it's a, it's a lot of work and you got to really fight and compete if you're a seller and you want to get sold. Is that the, is that the theory? I think so. And I think condition is everything. Offering something unique. Certainly the listings I have that are selling are out of the flood zone, even though I did sell something that was in the flood zone that was a very large home. But it was priced aggressively. I don't have a lot of rhyme or reason to it except condition. Or some kind of unique proposition about that property, so a unique opportunity by property in that location or in that condition or feature. Okay. What was the special about the house you sold? Oh, it was a very large and it allowed for multi generational living. And ultimately the buyer did purchase and combining a parents with a younger family son and mom are going to live together. That was the unique proposition there. I have a condo listing in Bradenton that has a 700 square foot outdoor patio. That's pretty unique. Yeah, that's a big outdoor space for a condo. So ease of living. You know low maintenance, but then you have ability to do a little bit of outdoor gardening if you want or just outdoor You know grilling and hanging out. That's nice So moving on, you know, we like talking about this and we're focused on these price points that are, you know, say 200 to 600, just looking at what the changes are. So from 100 to 1 49, there was five closed sales, which is crazy. We've been talking about wanting to eliminate anything under 2 50. And now there's Results in those categories, they're still low. I mean, I do think that they should be combined together, but yeah, I mean, this is up 67%, but we're talking about five sales. So it's not very many. You move up to one 50 to 200. There's 19 sales. That's up 90%. So that's doubled. And then you look at 200 to two 49, that's 36 sales and that's up. 33% and you get up to 300 to 400, 000 and there's been 171 sales and that's up 30 percent and then the 400 to 600 price point is up 20% and then the 600 to a million is up. 38 percent and the million or more is flat, even zero. Well, but with 72 sales, correct? 72 sales, but that's no increase in the number of sales. That number in our past results was high. It was shockingly to the point where we would have preferred those numbers be broken out to get a better reference. So the cash sales as a percentage of closed sales is 46 percent we talked about that I think what we found when we were looking at the information is this is the first time You know going all the way back through January of 21 where we have seen over 40 percent of the sales being cash. So that information has never been in here before. You know, I, I don't want to say anything too crazy about it because the pricing that the houses that are selling, the majority of them are in a lower price point. But again, being, almost 50 percent half cash is, I mean, that's a lot. One of the things we wanted to highlight is about the inventory by current listing price. And right now there's some pretty astonishing numbers when you start looking at the number of listings. And we've talked about Snell Isle, we've talked about listings in Shore Acres, and those are incorporated into this. But the increase in listings between 200 and 250 is 415%. So that's 100 properties that are currently available between 200 and 250. There are 200 properties available between 250 and 300. That's an increase of 143%. Those numbers were single digits. Right. So there's a flood of inventory in that price point, both of them. So 300 to 399, that's 300 to 400 is 79. 5 percent or 80%, 675. Five properties are now available between 300 and 400, 000. Ooh, that's a lot. It is a lot. And 400 is up 35%. There's 957 properties for sale. So that means it was probably 600 and something last year. Now it's 900 and something. The 600 to 999 is 737 and that's up 33 and a half percent and there are 611 properties for sale for a million or more. That's only up 6 percent so it's not a huge increase but it is a number of properties that are for sale for a million or more. A lot of inventory out there, and that's a lot of numbers. If you've been able to hang on to hear all these numbers, you must really be interested in the market. We like seeing it. We like living it. And then we like talking about it and seeing if what we think is happening is happening. And our clients ask us to know what's going on in the market. And that's what we try to do. And we love to be able to share that with you as well. So if you're interested in hearing this, it's good data. Maybe some of it hits another dozen, but it's good to have the overall numbers available to you. So we are so appreciative of you listening. And I appreciate you taking the time to talk to me about it, Julie. It's my pleasure. Well, this is David Vand and this is the Real Property St. Pete podcast. I appreciate everybody out there listening. Hope this has been helpful. Thank you for listening today. Signing off.