{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.033,"endTime":4.771,"body":"The challenge we all face is separating"},{"startTime":0.033,"endTime":4.771,"body":"the fundamentals of our individual stocks"},{"startTime":5.338,"endTime":8.742,"body":"and a near hysterical, bullish backdrop"},{"startTime":5.338,"endTime":8.742,"body":"driving markets."},{"startTime":9.542,"endTime":11.011,"body":"Look, I get it."},{"startTime":11.011,"endTime":15.115,"body":"And admittedly, in the short run,"},{"startTime":11.011,"endTime":15.115,"body":"maybe some stocks have run too far."},{"startTime":15.115,"endTime":17.984,"body":"But timing that exit, it matters."},{"startTime":18.718,"endTime":22.389,"body":"Being too early can cost"},{"startTime":18.718,"endTime":22.389,"body":"just as much as being too late."},{"startTime":23.289,"endTime":26.493,"body":"Hence, you have a lot of market pundits,"},{"startTime":23.289,"endTime":26.493,"body":"including some of the brightest money"},{"startTime":26.493,"endTime":31.197,"body":"managers on the planet, trimming"},{"startTime":26.493,"endTime":31.197,"body":"positions, looking for a correction."},{"startTime":32.165,"endTime":34.3,"body":"Some are going a step further,"},{"startTime":34.3,"endTime":37.303,"body":"saying"},{"startTime":34.3,"endTime":37.303,"body":"this market is no different than dot.com"},{"startTime":37.504,"endTime":41.041,"body":"and that the party"},{"startTime":37.504,"endTime":41.041,"body":"is going to come to a crashing halt."},{"startTime":42.242,"endTime":44.978,"body":"But timing, it does matter."},{"startTime":44.978,"endTime":46.046,"body":"You can be right on the call,"},{"startTime":46.046,"endTime":50.183,"body":"but there comes a point"},{"startTime":46.046,"endTime":50.183,"body":"when you are so early, you're just wrong."},{"startTime":51.418,"endTime":53.286,"body":"I was in the Bear camp in 1996"},{"startTime":53.286,"endTime":56.756,"body":"when Greenspan made"},{"startTime":53.286,"endTime":56.756,"body":"his irrational exuberance speech."},{"startTime":57.457,"endTime":59.192,"body":"He was right, of course."},{"startTime":59.192,"endTime":61.961,"body":"But four years too early,"},{"startTime":61.961,"endTime":65.432,"body":"from his December 5th, 1996 speech"},{"startTime":65.865,"endTime":68.468,"body":"to the peak of Nasdaq in March 2000,"},{"startTime":68.501,"endTime":72.472,"body":"the index went up another 290%."},{"startTime":73.506,"endTime":77.877,"body":"Now, admittedly,"},{"startTime":73.506,"endTime":77.877,"body":"the Nasdaq is up 55% off the 2022 low."},{"startTime":78.511,"endTime":81.614,"body":"And if we go back to the COVID"},{"startTime":78.511,"endTime":81.614,"body":"low of March 2020,"},{"startTime":82.182,"endTime":85.285,"body":"it's a monster, 135%."},{"startTime":86.419,"endTime":88.655,"body":"Add the fact that"},{"startTime":86.419,"endTime":88.655,"body":"some of the biggest companies"},{"startTime":88.655,"endTime":92.625,"body":"are a multiple of those returns,"},{"startTime":88.655,"endTime":92.625,"body":"investors have acrophobia."},{"startTime":93.159,"endTime":95.762,"body":"You're scared? Yeah. Who isn’t."},{"startTime":95.762,"endTime":99.899,"body":"With the single biggest earnings"},{"startTime":95.762,"endTime":99.899,"body":"report Nvidia right in front of us."},{"startTime":100.3,"endTime":103.503,"body":"The potential for a highway"},{"startTime":100.3,"endTime":103.503,"body":"pile up is high."},{"startTime":103.536,"endTime":104.838,"body":"Let's dig in."},{"startTime":104.838,"endTime":105.905,"body":"See what we're looking at."},{"startTime":105.905,"endTime":107.64,"body":"Welcome to the Money Runner."},{"startTime":107.64,"endTime":126.593,"body":"I'm David Nelson."},{"startTime":128.895,"endTime":131.397,"body":"Trimming positions after a big run."},{"startTime":131.397,"endTime":133.7,"body":"It's a no lose trade."},{"startTime":133.7,"endTime":136.035,"body":"It's also a trade without much conviction."},{"startTime":137.17,"endTime":140.14,"body":"We do it"},{"startTime":137.17,"endTime":140.14,"body":"because we want to lock in victory."},{"startTime":141.241,"endTime":144.944,"body":"If the stock goes up, I'm smart"},{"startTime":141.241,"endTime":144.944,"body":"because I still own some."},{"startTime":145.745,"endTime":148.214,"body":"And if it goes down, I'm still smart"},{"startTime":148.214,"endTime":150.683,"body":"because I sold some."},{"startTime":150.683,"endTime":153.887,"body":"The downside"},{"startTime":150.683,"endTime":153.887,"body":"is that you lose the compounding effect"},{"startTime":153.887,"endTime":157.891,"body":"as the position grows"},{"startTime":153.887,"endTime":157.891,"body":"and likely have a big tax bill."},{"startTime":157.891,"endTime":161.394,"body":"Nvidia, Look, I'm not telling you"},{"startTime":157.891,"endTime":161.394,"body":"to buy it in front of the quarter,"},{"startTime":161.761,"endTime":164.43,"body":"but I'm holding into this report."},{"startTime":164.43,"endTime":167.967,"body":"Nvidia is perhaps the most talked about"},{"startTime":164.43,"endTime":167.967,"body":"stock of late, in part"},{"startTime":168.101,"endTime":171.404,"body":"because it's up a staggering 239%"},{"startTime":168.101,"endTime":171.404,"body":"last year"},{"startTime":171.638,"endTime":174.541,"body":"and already up another 46% in"},{"startTime":174.541,"endTime":177.744,"body":"just the first seven weeks of the year."},{"startTime":177.744,"endTime":180.48,"body":"I mention it"},{"startTime":177.744,"endTime":180.48,"body":"because this company is about to report"},{"startTime":180.48,"endTime":182.849,"body":"earnings on Wednesday after the close."},{"startTime":183.616,"endTime":185.852,"body":"It is likely to be the most important"},{"startTime":185.852,"endTime":189.789,"body":"earnings report so far, in part"},{"startTime":185.852,"endTime":189.789,"body":"because it is the brains of the A.I."},{"startTime":189.789,"endTime":192.058,"body":"Revolution, which many believe"},{"startTime":192.058,"endTime":195.495,"body":"to be the most important investment"},{"startTime":192.058,"endTime":195.495,"body":"theme in a generation."},{"startTime":196.596,"endTime":196.863,"body":"Other"},{"startTime":196.863,"endTime":199.566,"body":"themes like a broadening"},{"startTime":196.863,"endTime":199.566,"body":"of the rally into small caps."},{"startTime":200.066,"endTime":202.202,"body":"Well, that hasn't panned out yet."},{"startTime":202.202,"endTime":205.471,"body":"In that backdrop, capital flows"},{"startTime":202.202,"endTime":205.471,"body":"to what's working"},{"startTime":205.838,"endTime":208.341,"body":"from what isn't."},{"startTime":210.877,"endTime":213.413,"body":"If the party's about to end,"},{"startTime":213.413,"endTime":215.682,"body":"analysts will likely be the cause."},{"startTime":217.083,"endTime":219.552,"body":"It's important"},{"startTime":217.083,"endTime":219.552,"body":"to remember that an earnings report"},{"startTime":219.552,"endTime":222.422,"body":"isn't just a peek"},{"startTime":219.552,"endTime":222.422,"body":"into the financial health of a company."},{"startTime":223.056,"endTime":225.525,"body":"It's also a report card on"},{"startTime":223.056,"endTime":225.525,"body":"how good or bad a job"},{"startTime":225.525,"endTime":227.76,"body":"the analysts did in getting the numbers"},{"startTime":225.525,"endTime":227.76,"body":"right."},{"startTime":228.328,"endTime":230.83,"body":"Analysts have been scrambling for weeks"},{"startTime":230.83,"endTime":234.033,"body":"to raise numbers and targets"},{"startTime":230.83,"endTime":234.033,"body":"after misjudging the demand."},{"startTime":235.201,"endTime":238.404,"body":"The last couple of prints from Nvidia"},{"startTime":235.201,"endTime":238.404,"body":"would double digit"},{"startTime":238.671,"endTime":241.441,"body":"top and bottom line beats."},{"startTime":241.441,"endTime":244.51,"body":"Analysts have been forced"},{"startTime":241.441,"endTime":244.51,"body":"to more than double their targets"},{"startTime":244.811,"endTime":246.145,"body":"since November last year."},{"startTime":246.145,"endTime":249.249,"body":"In fact, two have pushed the target up"},{"startTime":249.249,"endTime":252.952,"body":"to 1000, with one analyst"},{"startTime":249.249,"endTime":252.952,"body":"saying the stock's going to 1200."},{"startTime":253.62,"endTime":254.654,"body":"I get it."},{"startTime":254.654,"endTime":256.689,"body":"Irrational exuberance."},{"startTime":256.689,"endTime":260.193,"body":"The analysts are tripping over themselves,"},{"startTime":256.689,"endTime":260.193,"body":"trying to outdo each other."},{"startTime":261.261,"endTime":263.463,"body":"How can Nvidia possibly match"},{"startTime":263.596,"endTime":265.932,"body":"the enthusiasm of these analysts?"},{"startTime":267.433,"endTime":270.403,"body":"The answer is they probably can't."},{"startTime":270.403,"endTime":273.439,"body":"If NVIDIA doesn't beat expectations"},{"startTime":270.403,"endTime":273.439,"body":"in a meaningful fashion,"},{"startTime":273.439,"endTime":276.309,"body":"the stock will be punished"},{"startTime":273.439,"endTime":276.309,"body":"and the Bears will declare victory."},{"startTime":277.41,"endTime":281.481,"body":"Most, however, will not capitalize"},{"startTime":277.41,"endTime":281.481,"body":"on the pullback and remain content"},{"startTime":281.648,"endTime":285.018,"body":"with the position"},{"startTime":281.648,"endTime":285.018,"body":"they own or happy to be out of the stock"},{"startTime":285.285,"endTime":287.453,"body":"altogether."},{"startTime":288.288,"endTime":290.456,"body":"I have no idea"},{"startTime":288.288,"endTime":290.456,"body":"what's going to happen on Wednesday,"},{"startTime":291.09,"endTime":293.259,"body":"but I do know that Nvidia"},{"startTime":293.559,"endTime":296.462,"body":"is going through an Apple moment."},{"startTime":296.462,"endTime":298.564,"body":"Most misjudge this company"},{"startTime":298.564,"endTime":302.268,"body":"believing it is just a chip stock"},{"startTime":298.564,"endTime":302.268,"body":"and the next chip that comes along"},{"startTime":302.268,"endTime":305.071,"body":"a little faster will knock it"},{"startTime":302.268,"endTime":305.071,"body":"from its throne."},{"startTime":306.272,"endTime":309.042,"body":"This is a platform company"},{"startTime":306.272,"endTime":309.042,"body":"with an ecosystem"},{"startTime":309.042,"endTime":311.844,"body":"that developers and engineers depend on."},{"startTime":313.079,"endTime":315.315,"body":"Yes, they develop the advanced chips,"},{"startTime":313.079,"endTime":315.315,"body":"for the A.I."},{"startTime":315.315,"endTime":318.651,"body":"systems of the future,"},{"startTime":315.315,"endTime":318.651,"body":"but they also develop the software"},{"startTime":318.951,"endTime":321.721,"body":"and tools needed to manage this hardware."},{"startTime":322.755,"endTime":324.424,"body":"The Street will focus"},{"startTime":324.424,"endTime":328.027,"body":"on lead times, hoping there's enough"},{"startTime":324.424,"endTime":328.027,"body":"supply to meet demand, but not too much."},{"startTime":328.461,"endTime":331.164,"body":"That would force"},{"startTime":328.461,"endTime":331.164,"body":"an inventory correction down"},{"startTime":331.164,"endTime":333.433,"body":"the road."},{"startTime":335.902,"endTime":337.97,"body":"The biggest risk to this market?"},{"startTime":338.371,"endTime":340.773,"body":"Trust me, it's not in video."},{"startTime":340.773,"endTime":343.276,"body":"It's not even big cap tech."},{"startTime":343.276,"endTime":347.714,"body":"The biggest risk is still elevated rates"},{"startTime":343.276,"endTime":347.714,"body":"and the continued erosion"},{"startTime":347.714,"endTime":351.451,"body":"of commercial real estate"},{"startTime":347.714,"endTime":351.451,"body":"and the regional banking system."},{"startTime":352.685,"endTime":355.621,"body":"Recent inflation"},{"startTime":352.685,"endTime":355.621,"body":"data was a little hotter than expected,"},{"startTime":355.621,"endTime":358.591,"body":"pushing any hopes of a rate cut"},{"startTime":355.621,"endTime":358.591,"body":"further out."},{"startTime":359.826,"endTime":361.794,"body":"In a vacuum."},{"startTime":361.794,"endTime":363.963,"body":"Many industries and stocks could deal"},{"startTime":363.963,"endTime":366.966,"body":"with the tight financial conditions."},{"startTime":366.966,"endTime":370.002,"body":"That's not true in commercial real estate,"},{"startTime":366.966,"endTime":370.002,"body":"where already many"},{"startTime":370.002,"endTime":373.473,"body":"marquee office"},{"startTime":370.002,"endTime":373.473,"body":"buildings are looking at 50% vacancies."},{"startTime":374.64,"endTime":377.877,"body":"This, in turn, translates"},{"startTime":374.64,"endTime":377.877,"body":"to the regional banking system"},{"startTime":377.877,"endTime":380.179,"body":"that holds the paper on these properties."},{"startTime":380.913,"endTime":382.782,"body":"No, they don't want to foreclose."},{"startTime":382.782,"endTime":384.784,"body":"And no,"},{"startTime":382.782,"endTime":384.784,"body":"they don't want to take a big write down."},{"startTime":384.784,"endTime":389.021,"body":"So the industry extends and pretends."},{"startTime":390.356,"endTime":393.025,"body":"A year ago, we got a glimpse of"},{"startTime":390.356,"endTime":393.025,"body":"just how quickly"},{"startTime":393.025,"endTime":396.529,"body":"markets can react when Silicon Valley"},{"startTime":393.025,"endTime":396.529,"body":"and Signature banks rolled over."},{"startTime":397.597,"endTime":401.367,"body":"A few weeks ago, New York"},{"startTime":397.597,"endTime":401.367,"body":"Community Bank reported a quarterly loss"},{"startTime":401.634,"endTime":406.038,"body":"due to higher provisions"},{"startTime":401.634,"endTime":406.038,"body":"and was forced to slash its dividend."},{"startTime":407.306,"endTime":408.808,"body":"Dollars to donuts."},{"startTime":408.808,"endTime":411.11,"body":"We're going to find more roaches"},{"startTime":408.808,"endTime":411.11,"body":"when we turn on the lights."},{"startTime":411.277,"endTime":415.214,"body":"The KRE Regional Bank ETF"},{"startTime":411.277,"endTime":415.214,"body":"looks like it's bleeding to death."},{"startTime":416.015,"endTime":419.185,"body":"It's down 7% year"},{"startTime":416.015,"endTime":419.185,"body":"to date with more than 30 of its members"},{"startTime":419.185,"endTime":421.854,"body":"down double digits."},{"startTime":422.455,"endTime":426.592,"body":"The Fed then may continue to hold out,"},{"startTime":422.455,"endTime":426.592,"body":"but if there is continued breakdown"},{"startTime":426.592,"endTime":431.431,"body":"in some of these deposit institutions,"},{"startTime":426.592,"endTime":431.431,"body":"they will be forced to act."},{"startTime":432.231,"endTime":432.598,"body":"All right."},{"startTime":432.598,"endTime":435.234,"body":"This is the part of the pod"},{"startTime":432.598,"endTime":435.234,"body":"where I have to ask for your support"},{"startTime":435.868,"endTime":437.67,"body":"and know it's not money."},{"startTime":437.67,"endTime":441.14,"body":"But if you like this episode,"},{"startTime":437.67,"endTime":441.14,"body":"please hit subscribe."},{"startTime":441.14,"endTime":444.477,"body":"And if you'd like to learn more"},{"startTime":441.14,"endTime":444.477,"body":"and have access to charts and other"},{"startTime":444.477,"endTime":448.648,"body":"commentary, go to DCNelson123@substack.com"},{"startTime":449.715,"endTime":451.15,"body":"Thanks for joining."},{"startTime":451.15,"endTime":453.719,"body":"I'm David Nelson."}]}