{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":1.968,"endTime":3.203,"body":"Welcome to the Money Runner."},{"startTime":3.203,"endTime":4.938,"body":"I'm David Nelson, your host."},{"startTime":4.938,"endTime":6.973,"body":"We're going to try something"},{"startTime":4.938,"endTime":6.973,"body":"a little different today."},{"startTime":6.973,"endTime":11.077,"body":"I was talking with my producer,"},{"startTime":6.973,"endTime":11.077,"body":"Chris Patti and we decided"},{"startTime":11.311,"endTime":15.015,"body":"let's try to be a little bit more free"},{"startTime":11.311,"endTime":15.015,"body":"form, a little bit more of a conversation,"},{"startTime":15.015,"endTime":17.083,"body":"a little bit less scripted,"},{"startTime":15.015,"endTime":17.083,"body":"no teleprompter."},{"startTime":17.55,"endTime":18.284,"body":"I'm going to walk you"},{"startTime":18.284,"endTime":22.288,"body":"through the kind of conversation I have"},{"startTime":18.284,"endTime":22.288,"body":"with our advisors around the country."},{"startTime":22.288,"endTime":26.726,"body":"And actually, this is a tag on to a call"},{"startTime":22.288,"endTime":26.726,"body":"that we we had this this afternoon."},{"startTime":26.726,"endTime":29.195,"body":"So I'm going to share some of the charts"},{"startTime":29.195,"endTime":33.6,"body":"and kind of open up my brain, so to speak,"},{"startTime":29.195,"endTime":33.6,"body":"and give you a sense of my thinking."},{"startTime":33.6,"endTime":36.736,"body":"Because remember, when you're"},{"startTime":33.6,"endTime":36.736,"body":"managing money and you're thinking about"},{"startTime":36.736,"endTime":39.873,"body":"markets, it's an ongoing process."},{"startTime":39.873,"endTime":44.411,"body":"And what I say today, I might have to"},{"startTime":39.873,"endTime":44.411,"body":"change my mind the next day."},{"startTime":44.411,"endTime":46.579,"body":"Change is a part of markets."},{"startTime":46.98,"endTime":49.983,"body":"And certainly in the last couple of weeks"},{"startTime":46.98,"endTime":49.983,"body":"there's been a lot of change."},{"startTime":50.45,"endTime":52.685,"body":"So I'm going to walk you"},{"startTime":50.45,"endTime":52.685,"body":"through the thinking."},{"startTime":52.685,"endTime":54.921,"body":"So let's look at some of these things."},{"startTime":54.921,"endTime":57.157,"body":"This first picture, it's not a chart."},{"startTime":57.157,"endTime":60.66,"body":"Obviously,"},{"startTime":57.157,"endTime":60.66,"body":"I put it up because it asks a question."},{"startTime":60.66,"endTime":65.698,"body":"And if you recognize what this gentleman"},{"startTime":60.66,"endTime":65.698,"body":"is saying, then it dates yourself."},{"startTime":65.732,"endTime":66.566,"body":"And I certainly do."},{"startTime":66.566,"endTime":71.004,"body":"This is from a movie back from"},{"startTime":66.566,"endTime":71.004,"body":"my day called Marathon Man."},{"startTime":72.138,"endTime":73.54,"body":"Dustin Hoffman was the star."},{"startTime":73.54,"endTime":76.109,"body":"He's actually the one sitting"},{"startTime":73.54,"endTime":76.109,"body":"in the dentist's chair. You can't see him."},{"startTime":76.109,"endTime":78.812,"body":"I can't remember the name of the actor"},{"startTime":78.812,"endTime":81.548,"body":"in this scene,"},{"startTime":78.812,"endTime":81.548,"body":"but he was a pretty menacing character."},{"startTime":82.048,"endTime":85.618,"body":"And he's obviously going to inflict"},{"startTime":82.048,"endTime":85.618,"body":"a lot of pain on Dustin Hoffman here."},{"startTime":85.618,"endTime":87.821,"body":"And he's asking, is it safe?"},{"startTime":87.821,"endTime":90.957,"body":"And that's really a question"},{"startTime":87.821,"endTime":90.957,"body":"that a lot of investors"},{"startTime":90.957,"endTime":94.694,"body":"are probably asking themselves today"},{"startTime":90.957,"endTime":94.694,"body":"after, you know, a"},{"startTime":94.694,"endTime":97.53,"body":"pretty big move in the markets"},{"startTime":97.931,"endTime":99.966,"body":"over the last,"},{"startTime":97.931,"endTime":99.966,"body":"you know, several trading days."},{"startTime":99.966,"endTime":104.437,"body":"And that comes on the heels"},{"startTime":99.966,"endTime":104.437,"body":"of a pretty poor start to September."},{"startTime":104.437,"endTime":106.573,"body":"So let's look at some of these charts."},{"startTime":106.573,"endTime":107.941,"body":"First one up."},{"startTime":107.941,"endTime":110.91,"body":"S\u0026P 500, not the big surprise there."},{"startTime":110.91,"endTime":114.481,"body":"But what you can"},{"startTime":110.91,"endTime":114.481,"body":"see in this chart is, is that"},{"startTime":115.915,"endTime":116.449,"body":"really over"},{"startTime":116.449,"endTime":119.752,"body":"the last year that that channel,"},{"startTime":116.449,"endTime":119.752,"body":"that trend line that had been developed"},{"startTime":120.019,"endTime":123.59,"body":"since October of last year,"},{"startTime":120.019,"endTime":123.59,"body":"that that gap that was broken"},{"startTime":124.09,"endTime":126.126,"body":"and that was broken sometime in July."},{"startTime":126.126,"endTime":129.996,"body":"And the markets the tenor of the markets"},{"startTime":126.126,"endTime":129.996,"body":"have clearly changed since then."},{"startTime":130.296,"endTime":131.998,"body":"Think about what's been working."},{"startTime":131.998,"endTime":134.901,"body":"Utilities are consumer staples,"},{"startTime":135.935,"endTime":139.339,"body":"dividend stocks,"},{"startTime":135.935,"endTime":139.339,"body":"very defensive positioning"},{"startTime":140.807,"endTime":143.776,"body":"and tech has largely been a laggard."},{"startTime":144.344,"endTime":149.082,"body":"And really until this week, the bottom"},{"startTime":144.344,"endTime":149.082,"body":"rallies here and there, by and large,"},{"startTime":149.582,"endTime":152.785,"body":"this has been driven"},{"startTime":149.582,"endTime":152.785,"body":"by a defensive side of the market."},{"startTime":154.053,"endTime":158.224,"body":"You can also see in there,"},{"startTime":154.053,"endTime":158.224,"body":"when I drill down even closer,"},{"startTime":158.858,"endTime":159.692,"body":"you can see that we're"},{"startTime":159.692,"endTime":163.229,"body":"getting very close to that trend line,"},{"startTime":159.692,"endTime":163.229,"body":"trying to break back into that."},{"startTime":163.396,"endTime":167.1,"body":"But it's this next chart"},{"startTime":163.396,"endTime":167.1,"body":"that really tells the story for this week."},{"startTime":167.901,"endTime":170.97,"body":"What you're looking at there is"},{"startTime":167.901,"endTime":170.97,"body":"S\u0026P futures for the last three days."},{"startTime":171.971,"endTime":172.772,"body":"And in the middle of that"},{"startTime":172.772,"endTime":176.342,"body":"page is Wednesday, September 11th."},{"startTime":176.776,"endTime":179.012,"body":"And of course,"},{"startTime":176.776,"endTime":179.012,"body":"that was the anniversary of 911."},{"startTime":180.48,"endTime":182.649,"body":"But on that day we had a CPI report."},{"startTime":182.649,"endTime":186.452,"body":"And you can see right after the open"},{"startTime":182.649,"endTime":186.452,"body":"there, I'll point it"},{"startTime":186.452,"endTime":189.789,"body":"out in a second, right after the open"},{"startTime":186.452,"endTime":189.789,"body":"there,"},{"startTime":189.789,"endTime":191.457,"body":"stocks were for sale."},{"startTime":191.457,"endTime":194.46,"body":"And by the by late morning,"},{"startTime":195.061,"endTime":199.566,"body":"the market was down about 1.7%"},{"startTime":195.061,"endTime":199.566,"body":"from those intraday highs."},{"startTime":200.266,"endTime":202.335,"body":"And then something interesting"},{"startTime":200.266,"endTime":202.335,"body":"started to happen"},{"startTime":204.07,"endTime":206.673,"body":"slowly but surely,"},{"startTime":206.673,"endTime":211.477,"body":"one by one, stocks started to turn green"},{"startTime":206.673,"endTime":211.477,"body":"and the volume started to pick up."},{"startTime":211.477,"endTime":214.147,"body":"And it was a methodical rise higher"},{"startTime":215.114,"endTime":217.217,"body":"throughout the course of the day."},{"startTime":217.217,"endTime":220.253,"body":"And by the by the close of the day,"},{"startTime":217.217,"endTime":220.253,"body":"by the close of trading Wednesday,"},{"startTime":221.788,"endTime":224.891,"body":"stocks had climbed almost 3%"},{"startTime":224.991,"endTime":229.829,"body":"from those lows on pretty high volume. And"},{"startTime":230.83,"endTime":231.464,"body":"I think"},{"startTime":231.464,"endTime":233.933,"body":"a lot of investors were taken"},{"startTime":231.464,"endTime":233.933,"body":"aback by that."},{"startTime":234.867,"endTime":238.104,"body":"Let me go to this next."},{"startTime":238.104,"endTime":238.538,"body":"You know what?"},{"startTime":238.538,"endTime":240.907,"body":"I'm going to stop here for a second"},{"startTime":238.538,"endTime":240.907,"body":"because I'm doing this."},{"startTime":241.14,"endTime":242.141,"body":"I'm doing this live"},{"startTime":242.141,"endTime":245.979,"body":"and I'm sitting in the office"},{"startTime":242.141,"endTime":245.979,"body":"and some news coming over the tape."},{"startTime":246.312,"endTime":249.282,"body":"And one of the things I'm seeing here is"},{"startTime":246.312,"endTime":249.282,"body":"Oracle"},{"startTime":250.583,"endTime":253.686,"body":"is now trading up close"},{"startTime":250.583,"endTime":253.686,"body":"to 6% in the aftermarket."},{"startTime":253.686,"endTime":255.888,"body":"That's on the heels"},{"startTime":253.686,"endTime":255.888,"body":"of a pretty strong week"},{"startTime":256.756,"endTime":260.059,"body":"for Oracle, a very strong earnings day,"},{"startTime":260.76,"endTime":263.93,"body":"I guess, two nights ago."},{"startTime":263.93,"endTime":266.699,"body":"And they had a good follow"},{"startTime":263.93,"endTime":266.699,"body":"through on Wednesday."},{"startTime":266.699,"endTime":270.503,"body":"And but this will probably drive"},{"startTime":266.699,"endTime":270.503,"body":"trading up for tomorrow."},{"startTime":270.503,"endTime":274.44,"body":"But Oracle up in the aftermarket"},{"startTime":270.503,"endTime":274.44,"body":"on their Analyst Day actually raising"},{"startTime":274.44,"endTime":278.945,"body":"revenue guidance after they reported"},{"startTime":274.44,"endTime":278.945,"body":"earnings just just two days earlier. A"},{"startTime":280.346,"endTime":281.381,"body":"pretty telling."},{"startTime":281.381,"endTime":284.584,"body":"But anyway, let let me let me get back"},{"startTime":281.381,"endTime":284.584,"body":"to what I was talking about."},{"startTime":285.084,"endTime":288.721,"body":"I want to go back to"},{"startTime":285.084,"endTime":288.721,"body":"what the market did on on Wednesday."},{"startTime":289.322,"endTime":292.258,"body":"And and and here's"},{"startTime":289.322,"endTime":292.258,"body":"where it gets interesting."},{"startTime":292.892,"endTime":296.829,"body":"This is just a snapshot of some tech"},{"startTime":292.892,"endTime":296.829,"body":"stocks on my screen here."},{"startTime":296.829,"endTime":299.065,"body":"And what I've circled there"},{"startTime":296.829,"endTime":299.065,"body":"and what's blown up."},{"startTime":299.732,"endTime":303.903,"body":"Those are percentages, but percentages"},{"startTime":299.732,"endTime":303.903,"body":"not a price, but of volume."},{"startTime":304.604,"endTime":307.206,"body":"What you're looking at there,"},{"startTime":304.604,"endTime":307.206,"body":"when you see a number like 100,"},{"startTime":307.206,"endTime":312.578,"body":"what that means is that particular stock,"},{"startTime":307.206,"endTime":312.578,"body":"the volume for that stock was 100%"},{"startTime":312.578,"endTime":317.717,"body":"of the volume of the average volume"},{"startTime":312.578,"endTime":317.717,"body":"of the last 20 days of."},{"startTime":317.717,"endTime":321.587,"body":"And it wasn't just one or two stocks,"},{"startTime":317.717,"endTime":321.587,"body":"it was dozens of stocks."},{"startTime":322.955,"endTime":325.291,"body":"And that tells me that institutional money"},{"startTime":325.558,"endTime":327.66,"body":"was going into the market,"},{"startTime":325.558,"endTime":327.66,"body":"at least for yesterday."},{"startTime":327.66,"endTime":331.831,"body":"And then today, more carry"},{"startTime":327.66,"endTime":331.831,"body":"through the market started off fairly,"},{"startTime":332.432,"endTime":335.935,"body":"fairly quiet for most of the morning,"},{"startTime":332.432,"endTime":335.935,"body":"but slowly"},{"startTime":335.935,"endTime":339.539,"body":"but surely, markets headed higher, stocks"},{"startTime":335.935,"endTime":339.539,"body":"headed higher."},{"startTime":339.539,"endTime":343.543,"body":"But on increasing volume"},{"startTime":339.539,"endTime":343.543,"body":"and the numbers were quite compelling."},{"startTime":343.543,"endTime":347.58,"body":"Some stocks up"},{"startTime":343.543,"endTime":347.58,"body":"150% above their normal volume."},{"startTime":348.448,"endTime":350.35,"body":"That's institutional capital."},{"startTime":350.35,"endTime":354.554,"body":"Like I said, going"},{"startTime":350.35,"endTime":354.554,"body":"in, one of the big drivers of the tape"},{"startTime":354.554,"endTime":357.724,"body":"this week is, of course, the CPI"},{"startTime":354.554,"endTime":357.724,"body":"up on your screen right now."},{"startTime":358.758,"endTime":359.659,"body":"And what I like"},{"startTime":359.659,"endTime":364.831,"body":"about this chart is, is that that sideways"},{"startTime":359.659,"endTime":364.831,"body":"movement, which had frustrated me"},{"startTime":364.831,"endTime":368.201,"body":"for really the last couple of months,"},{"startTime":364.831,"endTime":368.201,"body":"feeling that the Fed's work"},{"startTime":368.601,"endTime":373.773,"body":"had largely not been able"},{"startTime":368.601,"endTime":373.773,"body":"to, you know, push inflation down further."},{"startTime":373.773,"endTime":375.541,"body":"Well, clearly"},{"startTime":376.042,"endTime":379.979,"body":"that that trend is broken"},{"startTime":376.042,"endTime":379.979,"body":"and the CPI has now broken below trend."},{"startTime":380.813,"endTime":385.618,"body":"I find that I find that actually really"},{"startTime":380.813,"endTime":385.618,"body":"a compelling piece of information."},{"startTime":385.618,"endTime":387.653,"body":"Next chart as well, two year yields."},{"startTime":388.554,"endTime":392.158,"body":"We've finally cracked that support"},{"startTime":388.554,"endTime":392.158,"body":"level in two year yields that were set"},{"startTime":392.892,"endTime":396.062,"body":"during that many bank crisis"},{"startTime":392.892,"endTime":396.062,"body":"that we had in March"},{"startTime":396.062,"endTime":402.001,"body":"of 2023, in large part"},{"startTime":396.062,"endTime":402.001,"body":"because what you're seeing there"},{"startTime":402.001,"endTime":405.938,"body":"is that that falloff in yields"},{"startTime":402.001,"endTime":405.938,"body":"is an indication that the Fed"},{"startTime":405.938,"endTime":408.408,"body":"is going to cut rates"},{"startTime":405.938,"endTime":408.408,"body":"and the market is pretty much priced in."},{"startTime":408.408,"endTime":411.744,"body":"And frankly,"},{"startTime":408.408,"endTime":411.744,"body":"this is what the Fed has, as has told us."},{"startTime":411.744,"endTime":414.58,"body":"Now, one of the negatives from yesterday,"},{"startTime":415.748,"endTime":418.618,"body":"or at least at the start of the day,"},{"startTime":415.748,"endTime":418.618,"body":"was that"},{"startTime":419.385,"endTime":422.822,"body":"that CPI number, the perception,"},{"startTime":419.385,"endTime":422.822,"body":"at least for the markets at that point"},{"startTime":423.289,"endTime":426.926,"body":"was that the Fed was not going to cut 50"},{"startTime":423.289,"endTime":426.926,"body":"basis points."},{"startTime":427.26,"endTime":429.829,"body":"They were only going to cut 25."},{"startTime":429.829,"endTime":431.798,"body":"I think that's a mistake."},{"startTime":431.798,"endTime":434.133,"body":"I think they should come out of the gates"},{"startTime":431.798,"endTime":434.133,"body":"swinging."},{"startTime":435.134,"endTime":438.004,"body":"I know I'm not alone in that thinking,"},{"startTime":438.004,"endTime":439.739,"body":"but it's likely not to happen."},{"startTime":439.739,"endTime":442.375,"body":"Not going to happen."},{"startTime":439.739,"endTime":442.375,"body":"I'm always looking for 50."},{"startTime":442.375,"endTime":443.843,"body":"I would love to see 75."},{"startTime":443.843,"endTime":446.646,"body":"That would not happen."},{"startTime":443.843,"endTime":446.646,"body":"But now it's just going to be 25."},{"startTime":446.646,"endTime":448.281,"body":"And it is the nature of the beast."},{"startTime":448.281,"endTime":450.016,"body":"It's the nature of this Federal Reserve."},{"startTime":450.016,"endTime":453.052,"body":"They're very incremental"},{"startTime":450.016,"endTime":453.052,"body":"and they want to be very cautious"},{"startTime":453.753,"endTime":455.655,"body":"in what they're what they're doing."},{"startTime":455.655,"endTime":456.689,"body":"Let's look at another"},{"startTime":457.957,"endTime":459.058,"body":"Fed policy chart."},{"startTime":459.058,"endTime":461.294,"body":"And what you're looking at here is"},{"startTime":462.595,"endTime":464.797,"body":"is is fed fund futures."},{"startTime":465.031,"endTime":466.165,"body":"And what you're seeing here"},{"startTime":466.165,"endTime":471.037,"body":"is at the bottom of that page,"},{"startTime":466.165,"endTime":471.037,"body":"the terminal rate, 2.75%, that"},{"startTime":471.037,"endTime":474.907,"body":"terminal rate, we're going to get to that"},{"startTime":471.037,"endTime":474.907,"body":"terminal rate with Fed funds down there."},{"startTime":474.907,"endTime":478.077,"body":"At least"},{"startTime":474.907,"endTime":478.077,"body":"that's what the market is pricing in over"},{"startTime":478.077,"endTime":481.481,"body":"the next over the over the course"},{"startTime":478.077,"endTime":481.481,"body":"of a little bit more than a year."},{"startTime":481.481,"endTime":483.483,"body":"Because what it shows here"},{"startTime":481.481,"endTime":483.483,"body":"is we're going to have"},{"startTime":484.016,"endTime":488.488,"body":"or let me rephrase that the market expects"},{"startTime":484.016,"endTime":488.488,"body":"that the Fed is going"},{"startTime":488.488,"endTime":491.757,"body":"to cut at every single meeting between now"},{"startTime":491.757,"endTime":494.193,"body":"and January 2026."},{"startTime":495.328,"endTime":497.83,"body":"And that should get the real funds rate,"},{"startTime":498.831,"endTime":501.067,"body":"the real, real instrument,"},{"startTime":501.067,"endTime":503.769,"body":"the real Fed funds rate down to zero."},{"startTime":503.803,"endTime":504.737,"body":"How do we do that?"},{"startTime":504.737,"endTime":508.474,"body":"All that would mean is that the Fed funds"},{"startTime":504.737,"endTime":508.474,"body":"rate minus the inflation rate"},{"startTime":508.708,"endTime":511.978,"body":"would be zero because anything above that"},{"startTime":508.708,"endTime":511.978,"body":"the Fed is being restrictive."},{"startTime":512.211,"endTime":513.246,"body":"When they're below that,"},{"startTime":514.28,"endTime":515.515,"body":"they're being accommodative."},{"startTime":515.515,"endTime":518.551,"body":"Right"},{"startTime":515.515,"endTime":518.551,"body":"now. It's a very, very restrictive Fed"},{"startTime":518.985,"endTime":522.688,"body":"and hence the concern"},{"startTime":518.985,"endTime":522.688,"body":"about a possible recession."},{"startTime":524.257,"endTime":527.96,"body":"You know, my thoughts on that,"},{"startTime":524.257,"endTime":527.96,"body":"I've brought it up in the past."},{"startTime":527.96,"endTime":530.863,"body":"I think the probability of a recession"},{"startTime":527.96,"endTime":530.863,"body":"over the next year is high,"},{"startTime":531.664,"endTime":534.367,"body":"in large part just"},{"startTime":534.367,"endTime":537.637,"body":"I'm a student of history"},{"startTime":534.367,"endTime":537.637,"body":"and in the last half century,"},{"startTime":538.671,"endTime":542.942,"body":"every time the Fed has embarked"},{"startTime":538.671,"endTime":542.942,"body":"on a cutting cycle or a recession"},{"startTime":542.942,"endTime":548.314,"body":"has followed sometime in the next 12,"},{"startTime":542.942,"endTime":548.314,"body":"12 months, it it didn't happen one time,"},{"startTime":550.082,"endTime":551.117,"body":"1984."},{"startTime":551.117,"endTime":553.152,"body":"And it often happens."},{"startTime":553.152,"endTime":557.69,"body":"And the reason it happens is that the Fed"},{"startTime":553.152,"endTime":557.69,"body":"usually moves in an incremental fashion."},{"startTime":557.69,"endTime":560.793,"body":"They're usually too late"},{"startTime":557.69,"endTime":560.793,"body":"to start hiking rates,"},{"startTime":560.793,"endTime":563.162,"body":"and they usually stay there too long."},{"startTime":563.963,"endTime":566.866,"body":"Here's what concerns me."},{"startTime":566.866,"endTime":570.836,"body":"What concerns me is the following"},{"startTime":566.866,"endTime":570.836,"body":"is that I'm seeing some data out there"},{"startTime":571.17,"endTime":574.941,"body":"that does not confirm some of the other"},{"startTime":571.17,"endTime":574.941,"body":"data that I just showed you on your screen"},{"startTime":575.474,"endTime":578.644,"body":"this this chart you're looking at right"},{"startTime":575.474,"endTime":578.644,"body":"here, this is the percentage of stocks"},{"startTime":578.644,"endTime":580.546,"body":"trading above"},{"startTime":578.644,"endTime":580.546,"body":"their 200 day moving average."},{"startTime":581.881,"endTime":584.684,"body":"What concerns me is the following is,"},{"startTime":581.881,"endTime":584.684,"body":"look what happened in August."},{"startTime":584.684,"endTime":588.955,"body":"You can see that that percentage dip,"},{"startTime":584.684,"endTime":588.955,"body":"that's perfectly natural"},{"startTime":588.955,"endTime":591.19,"body":"because stocks went into a free fall"},{"startTime":588.955,"endTime":591.19,"body":"in August"},{"startTime":593.159,"endTime":595.294,"body":"when the yen carry trade"},{"startTime":593.159,"endTime":595.294,"body":"started to unwind."},{"startTime":595.294,"endTime":600.032,"body":"And then, of course, when stocks"},{"startTime":595.294,"endTime":600.032,"body":"recovered, so did this indicator."},{"startTime":600.533,"endTime":605.137,"body":"Again, the beginning of September,"},{"startTime":600.533,"endTime":605.137,"body":"we had a free fall in stocks last week."},{"startTime":605.137,"endTime":607.206,"body":"This indicator starts to roll over."},{"startTime":607.206,"endTime":610.576,"body":"What concerns me is the last three days"},{"startTime":607.206,"endTime":610.576,"body":"have been pretty strong"},{"startTime":610.576,"endTime":615.181,"body":"and pretty powerful, and yet this"},{"startTime":610.576,"endTime":615.181,"body":"indicator has continued to head lower."},{"startTime":615.581,"endTime":617.817,"body":"Now I'll have to see"},{"startTime":615.581,"endTime":617.817,"body":"what the data shows tomorrow,"},{"startTime":618.284,"endTime":621.387,"body":"but that tells me that"},{"startTime":618.284,"endTime":621.387,"body":"while the market is going up,"},{"startTime":621.587,"endTime":624.59,"body":"there are less and less participants"},{"startTime":621.587,"endTime":624.59,"body":"to that rally."},{"startTime":625.157,"endTime":627.86,"body":"So we're going to have to monitor"},{"startTime":625.157,"endTime":627.86,"body":"that looking forward."},{"startTime":628.294,"endTime":630.93,"body":"Another negative this week,"},{"startTime":632.131,"endTime":633.032,"body":"we're getting some negative"},{"startTime":633.032,"endTime":635.801,"body":"data out of the financial"},{"startTime":633.032,"endTime":635.801,"body":"or some financial institutions."},{"startTime":636.168,"endTime":638.437,"body":"Ally Financial"},{"startTime":638.571,"endTime":641.107,"body":"Midwest Bank"},{"startTime":638.571,"endTime":641.107,"body":"that deals a lot with consumer credit"},{"startTime":642.108,"endTime":645.711,"body":"says that, you know, the credit metrics"},{"startTime":642.108,"endTime":645.711,"body":"they're seeing in a lot of their customer"},{"startTime":645.711,"endTime":649.148,"body":"base are deteriorating"},{"startTime":645.711,"endTime":649.148,"body":"and they're concerned about that."},{"startTime":649.448,"endTime":651.517,"body":"That stock obviously took it on the chin."},{"startTime":651.517,"endTime":654.453,"body":"Other negative news out of the financial"},{"startTime":651.517,"endTime":654.453,"body":"sector of JPMorgan, one"},{"startTime":655.488,"endTime":658.224,"body":"at a Barclays"},{"startTime":655.488,"endTime":658.224,"body":"conference said that profitability,"},{"startTime":659.125,"endTime":662.528,"body":"the profitability for net interest margins"},{"startTime":659.125,"endTime":662.528,"body":"that a lot of Wall Street was looking"},{"startTime":662.528,"endTime":665.598,"body":"for for next year, they think it's"},{"startTime":662.528,"endTime":665.598,"body":"a little bit too optimistic."},{"startTime":665.731,"endTime":667.033,"body":"They're not expecting that."},{"startTime":667.033,"endTime":671.003,"body":"And I think that's in large part"},{"startTime":667.033,"endTime":671.003,"body":"because as rates come down,"},{"startTime":671.971,"endTime":675.741,"body":"those fat spreads, those fat"},{"startTime":671.971,"endTime":675.741,"body":"that that that margin"},{"startTime":675.741,"endTime":679.111,"body":"that they're making on the cash"},{"startTime":675.741,"endTime":679.111,"body":"sitting in those accounts, that money"},{"startTime":679.111,"endTime":682.581,"body":"they're making off of your cash,"},{"startTime":679.111,"endTime":682.581,"body":"that's going to that's going to decrease"},{"startTime":682.915,"endTime":685.985,"body":"and they're going to make less money,"},{"startTime":682.915,"endTime":685.985,"body":"not necessarily a negative"},{"startTime":685.985,"endTime":690.423,"body":"for the economy, but certainly a negative"},{"startTime":685.985,"endTime":690.423,"body":"for for the banking sector as a whole."},{"startTime":691.524,"endTime":692.758,"body":"I do want to talk about the"},{"startTime":692.758,"endTime":699.098,"body":"cornucopia conference, because I think it"},{"startTime":692.758,"endTime":699.098,"body":"it drove a lot of the action this week."},{"startTime":699.098,"endTime":701.0,"body":"The Cornucopia Conference"},{"startTime":701.0,"endTime":704.37,"body":"is run by Goldman Sachs"},{"startTime":701.0,"endTime":704.37,"body":"and it takes place out on the West Coast."},{"startTime":704.37,"endTime":708.941,"body":"All their analysts go out there and dozens"},{"startTime":704.37,"endTime":708.941,"body":"and dozens of companies a day"},{"startTime":709.175,"endTime":711.977,"body":"speak at this conference, mostly CEOs."},{"startTime":711.977,"endTime":716.482,"body":"Some CFOs are,"},{"startTime":711.977,"endTime":716.482,"body":"and sometimes 20, 30 in a day."},{"startTime":716.482,"endTime":719.485,"body":"I think it goes on for four days."},{"startTime":719.618,"endTime":721.253,"body":"Most of the news was good."},{"startTime":721.253,"endTime":724.256,"body":"I think the news that drove"},{"startTime":721.253,"endTime":724.256,"body":"a lot of the market rally"},{"startTime":725.024,"endTime":727.293,"body":"this week was"},{"startTime":727.293,"endTime":730.329,"body":"was the CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Huang."},{"startTime":730.496,"endTime":733.933,"body":"Obviously,"},{"startTime":730.496,"endTime":733.933,"body":"this is the most important stock"},{"startTime":733.933,"endTime":737.336,"body":"in artificial intelligence,"},{"startTime":733.933,"endTime":737.336,"body":"a driving secular theme in markets today."},{"startTime":738.003,"endTime":740.873,"body":"And what he said"},{"startTime":738.003,"endTime":740.873,"body":"surprised a lot of the street"},{"startTime":742.408,"endTime":743.943,"body":"and a lot of the"},{"startTime":743.943,"endTime":746.512,"body":"bears on the street"},{"startTime":743.943,"endTime":746.512,"body":"in terms of artificial intelligence,"},{"startTime":746.779,"endTime":749.515,"body":"there's been a concern"},{"startTime":746.779,"endTime":749.515,"body":"and I brought this up on the podcast"},{"startTime":750.249,"endTime":752.918,"body":"that the build out of the infrastructure"},{"startTime":753.319,"endTime":758.19,"body":"was the head of the profitability"},{"startTime":753.319,"endTime":758.19,"body":"curve for artificial intelligence."},{"startTime":758.19,"endTime":761.727,"body":"In other words, we're spending billions"},{"startTime":758.19,"endTime":761.727,"body":"to build out this this infrastructure"},{"startTime":761.961,"endTime":763.896,"body":"in the form"},{"startTime":761.961,"endTime":763.896,"body":"of buying these chips, building out"},{"startTime":763.896,"endTime":768.367,"body":"data centers are building"},{"startTime":763.896,"endTime":768.367,"body":"large language models."},{"startTime":769.301,"endTime":772.338,"body":"Certainly the hyperscalers"},{"startTime":769.301,"endTime":772.338,"body":"are spending billions, but"},{"startTime":773.472,"endTime":776.942,"body":"no ROI yet, no return on investment."},{"startTime":777.943,"endTime":779.945,"body":"And that's been a concern."},{"startTime":779.945,"endTime":782.214,"body":"Well, what he points out"},{"startTime":782.214,"endTime":784.65,"body":"and you have to take it"},{"startTime":782.214,"endTime":784.65,"body":"with a grain of salt, because remember,"},{"startTime":784.65,"endTime":787.186,"body":"he's talking his own book, he's"},{"startTime":784.65,"endTime":787.186,"body":"touting his company"},{"startTime":787.787,"endTime":792.258,"body":"is that for every dollar invested"},{"startTime":787.787,"endTime":792.258,"body":"in Nvidia infrastructure,"},{"startTime":792.258,"endTime":797.196,"body":"if you're a hyperscale,"},{"startTime":792.258,"endTime":797.196,"body":"it can earn $5 in revenue."},{"startTime":797.596,"endTime":799.565,"body":"That's an enormous profit incentive."},{"startTime":799.565,"endTime":803.903,"body":"And that's what drove a lot of the tape,"},{"startTime":799.565,"endTime":803.903,"body":"a lot of the price action"},{"startTime":804.303,"endTime":805.538,"body":"these last couple of days."},{"startTime":806.639,"endTime":808.941,"body":"I'm going have to consider that."},{"startTime":808.941,"endTime":811.277,"body":"It certainly warms me to the market"},{"startTime":811.277,"endTime":813.846,"body":"a little bit more than I have been."},{"startTime":814.914,"endTime":818.317,"body":"You have to respect price movements"},{"startTime":814.914,"endTime":818.317,"body":"even when it's telling you"},{"startTime":818.317,"endTime":820.352,"body":"something different"},{"startTime":818.317,"endTime":820.352,"body":"than what you've been thinking"},{"startTime":820.653,"endTime":824.79,"body":"for the last several months,"},{"startTime":820.653,"endTime":824.79,"body":"because price often leads fundamentals."},{"startTime":825.357,"endTime":827.459,"body":"So I'm going to analyze this over"},{"startTime":825.357,"endTime":827.459,"body":"the next couple of days."},{"startTime":827.459,"endTime":832.064,"body":"I'll try to come back to you with a more"},{"startTime":827.459,"endTime":832.064,"body":"definitive outlook as soon as I can."},{"startTime":832.064,"endTime":834.333,"body":"In the meantime, thanks for joining."},{"startTime":835.201,"endTime":838.003,"body":"If you'd like more information"},{"startTime":835.201,"endTime":838.003,"body":"about the Money Runner and certainly"},{"startTime":839.271,"endTime":841.774,"body":"David Nelson, go to my Substack site."},{"startTime":841.807,"endTime":844.443,"body":"DCNELSON123@SUBSTACK.COM"},{"startTime":845.077,"endTime":847.746,"body":"I post my podcast there"},{"startTime":845.077,"endTime":847.746,"body":"in addition to YouTube."},{"startTime":848.714,"endTime":850.85,"body":"I post my articles there"},{"startTime":850.85,"endTime":853.419,"body":"a lot of charts,"},{"startTime":850.85,"endTime":853.419,"body":"a lot of extra information."},{"startTime":854.253,"endTime":856.822,"body":"You can sign up there, get alerts"},{"startTime":854.253,"endTime":856.822,"body":"whenever I'm going to be on air."},{"startTime":856.822,"endTime":861.327,"body":"And I also publish"},{"startTime":856.822,"endTime":861.327,"body":"my my network appearances"},{"startTime":862.561,"endTime":865.531,"body":"on that on my DC Nelson 123 Substack site."},{"startTime":865.965,"endTime":867.967,"body":"Again,"},{"startTime":865.965,"endTime":867.967,"body":"thanks for joining. I'm David Nelson."},{"startTime":867.967,"endTime":871.337,"body":"And this is The Money Runner."}]}