{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":2.936,"endTime":5.505,"body":"493. That's all."},{"startTime":5.538,"endTime":9.009,"body":"Every talking head"},{"startTime":5.538,"endTime":9.009,"body":"and strategist is telling their clients"},{"startTime":9.776,"endTime":11.044,"body":"the Mag seven is dead."},{"startTime":11.044,"endTime":15.181,"body":"Pile into the other 493"},{"startTime":11.044,"endTime":15.181,"body":"stocks in the S\u0026P 500."},{"startTime":16.483,"endTime":19.986,"body":"For starters, the Mag seven is nuanced,"},{"startTime":19.986,"endTime":23.156,"body":"and it's time to stop treating"},{"startTime":19.986,"endTime":23.156,"body":"every one of them the same."},{"startTime":24.124,"endTime":26.026,"body":"They each have different business models."},{"startTime":26.026,"endTime":28.695,"body":"And yes, as a group,"},{"startTime":26.026,"endTime":28.695,"body":"most are underperforming."},{"startTime":28.695,"endTime":31.531,"body":"The broad market this year."},{"startTime":31.631,"endTime":35.135,"body":"The bigger issue, and the one"},{"startTime":31.631,"endTime":35.135,"body":"I want to address right off the top"},{"startTime":35.735,"endTime":39.906,"body":"is that piling into the other 493"},{"startTime":35.735,"endTime":39.906,"body":"is not going to help you."},{"startTime":41.174,"endTime":43.309,"body":"The dispersion"},{"startTime":41.174,"endTime":43.309,"body":"this year is off the charts."},{"startTime":44.778,"endTime":46.813,"body":"What do I mean by that?"},{"startTime":47.58,"endTime":49.182,"body":"Take a look at a breakdown"},{"startTime":49.182,"endTime":53.753,"body":"of the Russell 1000 20% of the market"},{"startTime":49.182,"endTime":53.753,"body":"is up over 10% year to date"},{"startTime":53.987,"endTime":56.956,"body":"and we're less than five"},{"startTime":53.987,"endTime":56.956,"body":"weeks into the start of the year."},{"startTime":58.058,"endTime":58.391,"body":"On the"},{"startTime":58.391,"endTime":62.829,"body":"other side, almost 30% of the market"},{"startTime":58.391,"endTime":62.829,"body":"is down year to date."},{"startTime":62.829,"endTime":66.966,"body":"And of those, about half are down"},{"startTime":62.829,"endTime":66.966,"body":"more than the market is up."},{"startTime":68.601,"endTime":71.004,"body":"Make make no mistake, a shotgun approach"},{"startTime":71.004,"endTime":73.74,"body":"to the market"},{"startTime":71.004,"endTime":73.74,"body":"this year is not going to cut it."},{"startTime":75.075,"endTime":79.579,"body":"That means if you're"},{"startTime":75.075,"endTime":79.579,"body":"just throwing money at the broader market,"},{"startTime":79.579,"endTime":83.45,"body":"you could just as easily be catching"},{"startTime":79.579,"endTime":83.45,"body":"a falling knife as riding a winner."},{"startTime":85.018,"endTime":88.555,"body":"This is not a year"},{"startTime":85.018,"endTime":88.555,"body":"where beta alone is going to bail you out."},{"startTime":89.255,"endTime":94.294,"body":"Stock picking matters, sector rotation"},{"startTime":89.255,"endTime":94.294,"body":"matters, and staying ahead of a news cycle"},{"startTime":94.294,"endTime":98.398,"body":"that does not"},{"startTime":94.294,"endTime":98.398,"body":"sleep are absolutes for 2025."},{"startTime":98.798,"endTime":101.401,"body":"Welcome to the money runner"},{"startTime":98.798,"endTime":101.401,"body":"I'm David Nelson"},{"startTime":103.503,"endTime":122.856,"body":"and necessity"},{"startTime":123.156,"endTime":125.959,"body":"is the mother of invention."},{"startTime":125.959,"endTime":128.228,"body":"Now I have back tested this,"},{"startTime":128.228,"endTime":131.564,"body":"but the dispersion this year"},{"startTime":128.228,"endTime":131.564,"body":"seems a lot higher than I remember."},{"startTime":132.432,"endTime":136.236,"body":"To be sure, very important"},{"startTime":132.432,"endTime":136.236,"body":"themes are playing out."},{"startTime":136.336,"endTime":139.172,"body":"Front and center"},{"startTime":136.336,"endTime":139.172,"body":"is the health of the A.I. trade."},{"startTime":140.206,"endTime":140.74,"body":"And of course,"},{"startTime":140.74,"endTime":143.643,"body":"all that came home"},{"startTime":140.74,"endTime":143.643,"body":"to roost a couple of Mondays ago."},{"startTime":143.843,"endTime":148.948,"body":"When the news broke that deep seek,"},{"startTime":143.843,"endTime":148.948,"body":"a Chinese startup had developed a large"},{"startTime":148.948,"endTime":152.819,"body":"language model for their chat like app,"},{"startTime":148.948,"endTime":152.819,"body":"but had done it"},{"startTime":153.019,"endTime":155.455,"body":"at a fraction of the cost."},{"startTime":156.022,"endTime":157.757,"body":"And as we've learned since."},{"startTime":157.757,"endTime":161.995,"body":"The devil is in the details"},{"startTime":157.757,"endTime":161.995,"body":"and it is likely that deep seek"},{"startTime":162.896,"endTime":165.031,"body":"paid a lot more money than they revealed."},{"startTime":166.299,"endTime":168.468,"body":"We may never know the true answer,"},{"startTime":168.835,"endTime":172.005,"body":"but the key point is"},{"startTime":168.835,"endTime":172.005,"body":"that the model is a good one"},{"startTime":173.039,"endTime":175.208,"body":"and has been verified"},{"startTime":173.039,"endTime":175.208,"body":"by some of the brightest A.I."},{"startTime":175.208,"endTime":177.377,"body":"engineers on the planet."},{"startTime":177.41,"endTime":180.947,"body":"And as I mentioned in my post earlier"},{"startTime":177.41,"endTime":180.947,"body":"this week, all in podcast member"},{"startTime":181.114,"endTime":185.852,"body":"and tech guru Chamath Palihapitiya"},{"startTime":181.114,"endTime":185.852,"body":"said the following about deep seek."},{"startTime":186.619,"endTime":188.988,"body":"Necessity is the mother of invention."},{"startTime":188.988,"endTime":191.191,"body":"DeepSeek headed by Liang, Wenfeng"},{"startTime":191.958,"endTime":194.327,"body":"may have found a way around"},{"startTime":194.327,"endTime":197.397,"body":"using Nvidia's"},{"startTime":194.327,"endTime":197.397,"body":"proprietary programing language Cuda."},{"startTime":198.831,"endTime":199.966,"body":"Additionally, as A.I."},{"startTime":199.966,"endTime":204.337,"body":"transitions from training to inference,"},{"startTime":199.966,"endTime":204.337,"body":"the dispersion gets even wider."},{"startTime":204.837,"endTime":209.809,"body":"Application specific integrated chip"},{"startTime":204.837,"endTime":209.809,"body":"stocks or ASIC are suddenly outperforming,"},{"startTime":209.809,"endTime":214.08,"body":"even Nvidia The poster"},{"startTime":209.809,"endTime":214.08,"body":"child of artificial intelligence"},{"startTime":214.847,"endTime":217.65,"body":"software has taken on a leadership role"},{"startTime":218.751,"endTime":219.419,"body":"as the A.I."},{"startTime":219.419,"endTime":222.455,"body":"trade moves the build"},{"startTime":219.419,"endTime":222.455,"body":"out of infrastructure to the next phase"},{"startTime":222.455,"endTime":225.858,"body":"of applications,"},{"startTime":222.455,"endTime":225.858,"body":"including a rollout across"},{"startTime":225.858,"endTime":230.096,"body":"the entire industrial complex."},{"startTime":232.298,"endTime":233.533,"body":"The market cap weighted"},{"startTime":233.533,"endTime":235.602,"body":"indices are at a disadvantage."},{"startTime":236.536,"endTime":240.006,"body":"Take a look at the top"},{"startTime":236.536,"endTime":240.006,"body":"ten stocks by market cap."},{"startTime":240.873,"endTime":244.244,"body":"Of those, about 10 trillion in market"},{"startTime":244.244,"endTime":246.512,"body":"cap aren't pulling their weight."},{"startTime":247.38,"endTime":249.782,"body":"You know the names Apple, Microsoft,"},{"startTime":249.782,"endTime":253.052,"body":"Tesla and Nvidia Alphabet"},{"startTime":253.419,"endTime":256.756,"body":"gave up a lot of ground on Wednesday"},{"startTime":253.419,"endTime":256.756,"body":"and at least as of Thursday evening."},{"startTime":257.023,"endTime":260.026,"body":"Amazon's corner is giving investors pause."},{"startTime":261.094,"endTime":263.696,"body":"Meta is the sole hyperscalers."},{"startTime":263.763,"endTime":268.468,"body":"That seems to be translating CapEx"},{"startTime":263.763,"endTime":268.468,"body":"spending into a return on investment"},{"startTime":269.902,"endTime":270.036,"body":"Meta’s"},{"startTime":270.036,"endTime":273.006,"body":"investments in AI are driving"},{"startTime":270.036,"endTime":273.006,"body":"increased ad revenue."},{"startTime":273.039,"endTime":275.041,"body":"That's why the stock's up."},{"startTime":275.475,"endTime":277.61,"body":"Will these giants turn it around?"},{"startTime":277.61,"endTime":279.445,"body":"Of course they will."},{"startTime":279.445,"endTime":282.849,"body":"But for you and me, this is a time"},{"startTime":279.445,"endTime":282.849,"body":"to take advantage of an opportunity"},{"startTime":283.082,"endTime":287.92,"body":"to make money without parking"},{"startTime":283.082,"endTime":287.92,"body":"all the capital in a select few names."},{"startTime":288.621,"endTime":291.424,"body":"Yes, the broadening is happening,"},{"startTime":288.621,"endTime":291.424,"body":"but fundamentals matter"},{"startTime":291.624,"endTime":293.593,"body":"and the tide is not lifting."},{"startTime":293.593,"endTime":295.928,"body":"All boats."},{"startTime":298.798,"endTime":300.6,"body":"Make no mistake,"},{"startTime":300.6,"endTime":303.436,"body":"the Sector Leadership Board is changing."},{"startTime":304.404,"endTime":308.007,"body":"Some of last year's"},{"startTime":304.404,"endTime":308.007,"body":"losers are today's winners."},{"startTime":308.875,"endTime":312.078,"body":"When was the last time you saw health care"},{"startTime":308.875,"endTime":312.078,"body":"near the top?"},{"startTime":313.513,"endTime":315.148,"body":"It's been a while."},{"startTime":315.348,"endTime":318.685,"body":"Tech is bringing up the rear,"},{"startTime":315.348,"endTime":318.685,"body":"but don't be fooled."},{"startTime":319.185,"endTime":321.921,"body":"There are a lot of double digit winners"},{"startTime":319.185,"endTime":321.921,"body":"this year."},{"startTime":322.755,"endTime":325.591,"body":"Just not the usual suspects."},{"startTime":325.591,"endTime":327.827,"body":"I want to leave you with this"},{"startTime":325.591,"endTime":327.827,"body":"final thought."},{"startTime":328.494,"endTime":332.265,"body":"A lot's changed since I first got in"},{"startTime":328.494,"endTime":332.265,"body":"the business back in the early nineties."},{"startTime":332.298,"endTime":333.8,"body":"It's been that long."},{"startTime":333.8,"endTime":336.903,"body":"Technology has democratized investing."},{"startTime":337.87,"endTime":338.171,"body":"When I"},{"startTime":338.171,"endTime":342.542,"body":"first started, it was just like Gordon"},{"startTime":338.171,"endTime":342.542,"body":"Gekko in the movie Wall Street said."},{"startTime":343.509,"endTime":346.779,"body":"You are either on the inside"},{"startTime":343.509,"endTime":346.779,"body":"or the outside."},{"startTime":347.88,"endTime":350.983,"body":"You have access to information"},{"startTime":347.88,"endTime":350.983,"body":"or you don't."},{"startTime":352.085,"endTime":354.12,"body":"The more you paid"},{"startTime":352.085,"endTime":354.12,"body":"Wall Street in commissions, the higher"},{"startTime":354.12,"endTime":356.989,"body":"up the totem pole"},{"startTime":354.12,"endTime":356.989,"body":"you were at gaining access."},{"startTime":357.957,"endTime":360.526,"body":"Today, that is no longer true."},{"startTime":360.96,"endTime":363.596,"body":"You have access"},{"startTime":360.96,"endTime":363.596,"body":"to the same information I do"},{"startTime":364.597,"endTime":365.865,"body":"when the earnings come out."},{"startTime":365.865,"endTime":370.203,"body":"You can access them"},{"startTime":365.865,"endTime":370.203,"body":"at exactly the same time as I can."},{"startTime":370.503,"endTime":373.773,"body":"And it's free or almost free."},{"startTime":373.773,"endTime":378.111,"body":"Sure, you can have fancy charting programs"},{"startTime":373.773,"endTime":378.111,"body":"that are cool investment software,"},{"startTime":378.111,"endTime":384.65,"body":"but in the end it comes down to a newsfeed"},{"startTime":378.111,"endTime":384.65,"body":"an income statement and a calculator."},{"startTime":384.65,"endTime":386.853,"body":"Do the work."},{"startTime":386.853,"endTime":389.122,"body":"And you can play at a professional level"},{"startTime":390.056,"endTime":394.327,"body":"or you can hand it off to someone"},{"startTime":390.056,"endTime":394.327,"body":"who will do it for you for a price."},{"startTime":394.56,"endTime":398.264,"body":"Both are valid,"},{"startTime":394.56,"endTime":398.264,"body":"but someone has to do the work."},{"startTime":399.599,"endTime":400.4,"body":"Just buying the MAG"},{"startTime":400.4,"endTime":403.236,"body":"seven ETF or even traditional index ETFs."},{"startTime":403.503,"endTime":407.106,"body":"That's a good choice for many,"},{"startTime":403.503,"endTime":407.106,"body":"but for the first time in a while,"},{"startTime":407.373,"endTime":409.809,"body":"we can all build a better mousetrap."},{"startTime":410.81,"endTime":411.477,"body":"All right."},{"startTime":411.477,"endTime":412.211,"body":"I'm going to leave it there."},{"startTime":412.211,"endTime":413.279,"body":"That's it for this week."},{"startTime":413.279,"endTime":416.582,"body":"Don't forget, if you want to learn more"},{"startTime":413.279,"endTime":416.582,"body":"about yours truly"},{"startTime":416.983,"endTime":419.685,"body":"or more about the money runner,"},{"startTime":416.983,"endTime":419.685,"body":"go to my substack site."},{"startTime":419.986,"endTime":423.022,"body":"dcnelson123@substackcom."},{"startTime":423.656,"endTime":428.227,"body":"I'm David Nelson"},{"startTime":423.656,"endTime":428.227,"body":"and this is The Money Runner."}]}