{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":3.503,"endTime":5.372,"body":"Beating the market."},{"startTime":5.372,"endTime":6.706,"body":"Not enough."},{"startTime":6.706,"endTime":8.742,"body":"Not this year."},{"startTime":8.742,"endTime":12.212,"body":"Not with dispersion at 70 percentage"},{"startTime":8.742,"endTime":12.212,"body":"points."},{"startTime":13.113,"endTime":15.849,"body":"That's the widest"},{"startTime":13.113,"endTime":15.849,"body":"we've seen outside of a recession"},{"startTime":15.849,"endTime":19.853,"body":"since 2007. Why?"},{"startTime":20.42,"endTime":24.324,"body":"I guess there's lots of reasons,"},{"startTime":20.42,"endTime":24.324,"body":"but at the top of anyone's list has to be"},{"startTime":24.324,"endTime":27.961,"body":"the weak performance from the market's"},{"startTime":24.324,"endTime":27.961,"body":"biggest stocks by market cap."},{"startTime":29.262,"endTime":32.632,"body":"With Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and Alphabet"},{"startTime":29.262,"endTime":32.632,"body":"all in the water year"},{"startTime":32.632,"endTime":37.804,"body":"to date, the opportunity set for investors"},{"startTime":32.632,"endTime":37.804,"body":"to outperform actually increases."},{"startTime":39.039,"endTime":41.441,"body":"We are staring at the widest stock"},{"startTime":41.441,"endTime":44.11,"body":"dispersion in nearly two decades."},{"startTime":44.577,"endTime":45.578,"body":"Winners and losers."},{"startTime":45.578,"endTime":48.214,"body":"The gap is massive."},{"startTime":48.214,"endTime":51.084,"body":"If you're in the right names, you’re"},{"startTime":48.214,"endTime":51.084,"body":"killing it"},{"startTime":51.084,"endTime":53.453,"body":"in the wrong ones, dead money."},{"startTime":53.453,"endTime":55.889,"body":"And trust me, I've owned both this year."},{"startTime":56.689,"endTime":59.192,"body":"Cut your losses and let your profits run."},{"startTime":59.826,"endTime":64.731,"body":"Don't let your biases control"},{"startTime":59.826,"endTime":64.731,"body":"what stocks or sectors you should own."},{"startTime":65.498,"endTime":68.201,"body":"This year could turn those theories"},{"startTime":65.498,"endTime":68.201,"body":"upside down."},{"startTime":68.501,"endTime":70.003,"body":"Welcome to the Money Runner."},{"startTime":70.003,"endTime":73.239,"body":"I'm David Nelson."},{"startTime":91.424,"endTime":94.928,"body":"For too long, investors got lazy."},{"startTime":95.895,"endTime":97.831,"body":"Buy the index, grab some Mag seven."},{"startTime":97.831,"endTime":99.399,"body":"Call it a day."},{"startTime":99.732,"endTime":102.569,"body":"Look,"},{"startTime":99.732,"endTime":102.569,"body":"there's nothing wrong with using the index"},{"startTime":102.569,"endTime":104.737,"body":"for large portions of your funds."},{"startTime":105.572,"endTime":108.508,"body":"But every now and then,"},{"startTime":105.572,"endTime":108.508,"body":"an opportunity comes along."},{"startTime":108.575,"endTime":110.376,"body":"Like the present"},{"startTime":110.71,"endTime":116.182,"body":"equity concentration is so extreme"},{"startTime":110.71,"endTime":116.182,"body":"that even a minor tilt away from"},{"startTime":116.182,"endTime":121.588,"body":"some of these mega-cap giants has enormous"},{"startTime":116.182,"endTime":121.588,"body":"implications for equity returns."},{"startTime":122.455,"endTime":125.758,"body":"It doesn't even matter"},{"startTime":122.455,"endTime":125.758,"body":"if a couple of them find their footing."},{"startTime":126.526,"endTime":129.295,"body":"Meta is certainly a standout"},{"startTime":126.526,"endTime":129.295,"body":"winner, and Nvidia"},{"startTime":129.562,"endTime":132.332,"body":"has finally crawled back"},{"startTime":129.562,"endTime":132.332,"body":"into the Green Year to date."},{"startTime":133.066,"endTime":135.835,"body":"Even Apple is showing signs of life."},{"startTime":136.636,"endTime":140.34,"body":"But if as a group,"},{"startTime":136.636,"endTime":140.34,"body":"the top of the market does not outperform,"},{"startTime":140.507,"endTime":144.01,"body":"then the opportunity in front of us"},{"startTime":140.507,"endTime":144.01,"body":"gets more real."},{"startTime":145.145,"endTime":148.047,"body":"The bigger question Does it last?"},{"startTime":148.214,"endTime":150.65,"body":"And if it does, for how long?"},{"startTime":153.753,"endTime":156.789,"body":"Let's go through a couple of examples."},{"startTime":157.457,"endTime":162.362,"body":"Here's two on opposite"},{"startTime":157.457,"endTime":162.362,"body":"ends of the spectrum Trade Desk."},{"startTime":162.695,"endTime":166.166,"body":"An advertising technology"},{"startTime":162.695,"endTime":166.166,"body":"company in the communications sector"},{"startTime":166.399,"endTime":171.237,"body":"missed on the top line"},{"startTime":166.399,"endTime":171.237,"body":"for the first time in 33 quarters."},{"startTime":172.172,"endTime":176.409,"body":"The punishment was severe opening down"},{"startTime":172.172,"endTime":176.409,"body":"more than 30%."},{"startTime":177.277,"endTime":180.513,"body":"On the other side,"},{"startTime":177.277,"endTime":180.513,"body":"Applovin, one of the best performing"},{"startTime":180.513,"endTime":184.217,"body":"stocks last year, gapped 24% to the upside"},{"startTime":184.617,"endTime":188.421,"body":"on the heels of their report last week"},{"startTime":184.617,"endTime":188.421,"body":"hasn't looked back."},{"startTime":189.422,"endTime":191.858,"body":"This one hurts because I took profits"},{"startTime":191.858,"endTime":194.494,"body":"in Applovin last year and early this year."},{"startTime":195.428,"endTime":198.798,"body":"It's a lesson in how volatility can shake"},{"startTime":198.798,"endTime":202.202,"body":"you out of a good investment subject"},{"startTime":198.798,"endTime":202.202,"body":"for another pod."},{"startTime":203.236,"endTime":207.207,"body":"We are probably two thirds of the way"},{"startTime":203.236,"endTime":207.207,"body":"through the earnings season."},{"startTime":207.941,"endTime":212.078,"body":"Only two of the Mag seven stocks"},{"startTime":207.941,"endTime":212.078,"body":"traded higher on earnings."},{"startTime":212.879,"endTime":216.182,"body":"The Kahuna Nvidia poster child of the A.I."},{"startTime":216.182,"endTime":217.65,"body":"trade reports."},{"startTime":217.65,"endTime":221.854,"body":"Next week, we'll see what happens."},{"startTime":224.123,"endTime":225.858,"body":"Price momentum."},{"startTime":225.858,"endTime":228.394,"body":"Which market has the MO?"},{"startTime":228.394,"endTime":231.331,"body":"Investors always chase price momentum"},{"startTime":231.931,"endTime":236.703,"body":"and at the index level"},{"startTime":231.931,"endTime":236.703,"body":"that is not here for weeks."},{"startTime":237.003,"endTime":240.54,"body":"Markets in Europe have traded higher"},{"startTime":237.003,"endTime":240.54,"body":"on the increasing prospects"},{"startTime":240.974,"endTime":243.076,"body":"to an end of the war in Ukraine."},{"startTime":243.843,"endTime":247.213,"body":"Or, at a minimum, a ceasefire."},{"startTime":247.213,"endTime":251.584,"body":"Many oppose how the deal is coming about,"},{"startTime":247.213,"endTime":251.584,"body":"and certainly European leaders"},{"startTime":251.718,"endTime":256.322,"body":"are all screaming that, at least so far,"},{"startTime":251.718,"endTime":256.322,"body":"they aren't inside the room."},{"startTime":257.29,"endTime":260.76,"body":"However, stocks"},{"startTime":257.29,"endTime":260.76,"body":"don't have political biases."},{"startTime":261.561,"endTime":265.698,"body":"They follow the money and are convinced"},{"startTime":261.561,"endTime":265.698,"body":"that an end to the hostilities"},{"startTime":265.698,"endTime":269.135,"body":"means increased revenue and earnings"},{"startTime":265.698,"endTime":269.135,"body":"across"},{"startTime":269.402,"endTime":272.205,"body":"the European Industrial Complex."},{"startTime":272.205,"endTime":273.873,"body":"The numbers don't lie."},{"startTime":273.873,"endTime":278.645,"body":"Year to date, the MSCI EAFE"},{"startTime":273.873,"endTime":278.645,"body":"Index is up 8.22%."},{"startTime":279.445,"endTime":282.181,"body":"That's two times the total return"},{"startTime":282.382,"endTime":285.752,"body":"of the S\u0026P 500."},{"startTime":287.82,"endTime":289.422,"body":"Challenges."},{"startTime":289.422,"endTime":290.456,"body":"Every market has them."},{"startTime":291.658,"endTime":292.091,"body":"Here in the"},{"startTime":292.091,"endTime":295.962,"body":"States, the"},{"startTime":292.091,"endTime":295.962,"body":"inflation genie is not back in the bottle."},{"startTime":297.03,"endTime":300.333,"body":"Investors know it and so does Fed Chairman"},{"startTime":297.03,"endTime":300.333,"body":"Jay Powell."},{"startTime":301.634,"endTime":303.636,"body":"What does that mean for us?"},{"startTime":303.636,"endTime":305.104,"body":"Well, for starters,"},{"startTime":305.104,"endTime":308.341,"body":"get it out of your head that you're going"},{"startTime":305.104,"endTime":308.341,"body":"to see rate cuts any time soon."},{"startTime":308.908,"endTime":312.578,"body":"And if they do come,"},{"startTime":308.908,"endTime":312.578,"body":"it will be for all the wrong reasons."},{"startTime":313.446,"endTime":315.982,"body":"Either there's been a significant downturn"},{"startTime":313.446,"endTime":315.982,"body":"in the economy"},{"startTime":316.516,"endTime":319.686,"body":"or the Fed breaks"},{"startTime":316.516,"endTime":319.686,"body":"something in the banking sector."},{"startTime":320.653,"endTime":325.525,"body":"At a minimum, equity investors"},{"startTime":320.653,"endTime":325.525,"body":"have to factor in the possibility,"},{"startTime":325.525,"endTime":328.528,"body":"if not probability, of a rate hike."},{"startTime":329.829,"endTime":333.399,"body":"If inflation numbers"},{"startTime":329.829,"endTime":333.399,"body":"don't start to come down soon, futures"},{"startTime":333.399,"endTime":337.036,"body":"markets will shift from predicting"},{"startTime":333.399,"endTime":337.036,"body":"the next cut to the next hike."},{"startTime":338.538,"endTime":341.541,"body":"Jay may imply the Fed is nowhere near"},{"startTime":338.538,"endTime":341.541,"body":"considering a hike,"},{"startTime":341.841,"endTime":345.111,"body":"but you can bet dollars to donuts"},{"startTime":341.841,"endTime":345.111,"body":"that he’s not going to go down"},{"startTime":345.111,"endTime":350.45,"body":"as the next Alan Burns and get inflation"},{"startTime":345.111,"endTime":350.45,"body":"wrong two times on his watch."},{"startTime":351.984,"endTime":353.419,"body":"As a reminder, Mr."},{"startTime":353.419,"endTime":359.258,"body":"Burns was Fed chairman from 1970 to 1978,"},{"startTime":353.419,"endTime":359.258,"body":"and he was often criticized"},{"startTime":359.258,"endTime":362.595,"body":"for cutting interest rates"},{"startTime":359.258,"endTime":362.595,"body":"too soon in response to economic slowdowns"},{"startTime":363.396,"endTime":366.332,"body":"failing to control inflation effectively."},{"startTime":367.734,"endTime":370.57,"body":"Challenge number two the deficit."},{"startTime":371.871,"endTime":372.538,"body":"The U.S."},{"startTime":372.538,"endTime":375.541,"body":"budget deficit presents both a challenge"},{"startTime":375.541,"endTime":379.512,"body":"and opportunity for President Trump."},{"startTime":379.512,"endTime":384.45,"body":"Look, inheriting a budget deficit"},{"startTime":379.512,"endTime":384.45,"body":"that is 7% of GDP, not a great hand."},{"startTime":385.585,"endTime":386.486,"body":"The long end of the yield"},{"startTime":386.486,"endTime":389.989,"body":"curve already speaks to the concerns"},{"startTime":386.486,"endTime":389.989,"body":"of a widening deficit,"},{"startTime":390.456,"endTime":394.827,"body":"and any deterioration will force ten year"},{"startTime":390.456,"endTime":394.827,"body":"yields even higher."},{"startTime":396.195,"endTime":398.364,"body":"If, however, and it's a big if"},{"startTime":399.632,"endTime":401.467,"body":"over the next four years,"},{"startTime":401.467,"endTime":404.203,"body":"administration"},{"startTime":401.467,"endTime":404.203,"body":"policy can shift the trajectory"},{"startTime":404.537,"endTime":408.141,"body":"so that bond investors"},{"startTime":404.537,"endTime":408.141,"body":"can visualize a return to a deficit"},{"startTime":408.374,"endTime":410.443,"body":"that is 3% of GDP."},{"startTime":411.511,"endTime":414.247,"body":"That would go a long way"},{"startTime":411.511,"endTime":414.247,"body":"toward increased confidence,"},{"startTime":414.914,"endTime":417.65,"body":"keeping long rates in check."},{"startTime":421.32,"endTime":422.088,"body":"You can't have a"},{"startTime":422.088,"endTime":427.493,"body":"conversation about deficits"},{"startTime":422.088,"endTime":427.493,"body":"without talking about DOGE."},{"startTime":427.493,"endTime":431.497,"body":"Doge is one of the more"},{"startTime":427.493,"endTime":431.497,"body":"controversial efforts by President Trump."},{"startTime":432.665,"endTime":434.967,"body":"The Department of Government Efficiency"},{"startTime":435.334,"endTime":437.97,"body":"has sparked both praise and outrage."},{"startTime":439.071,"endTime":441.974,"body":"Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Space"},{"startTime":441.974,"endTime":445.578,"body":"X, x and yes,"},{"startTime":441.974,"endTime":445.578,"body":"the richest man in the world."},{"startTime":446.012,"endTime":448.781,"body":"Heads up doge"},{"startTime":446.012,"endTime":448.781,"body":"and has made the claim that he can cut"},{"startTime":448.781,"endTime":451.818,"body":"the deficit by half."},{"startTime":451.818,"endTime":454.654,"body":"Now, while I'm certain"},{"startTime":451.818,"endTime":454.654,"body":"that's an exaggeration."},{"startTime":454.654,"endTime":457.657,"body":"Anything that approaches"},{"startTime":454.654,"endTime":457.657,"body":"even a fraction of that number"},{"startTime":458.257,"endTime":461.26,"body":"is a step in the right direction."},{"startTime":461.394,"endTime":463.796,"body":"The controversy over doge"},{"startTime":463.796,"endTime":466.265,"body":"and its cost cutting techniques"},{"startTime":463.796,"endTime":466.265,"body":"not surprising."},{"startTime":467.533,"endTime":469.936,"body":"One man's waste and fraud"},{"startTime":469.936,"endTime":473.072,"body":"are another’s source of income."},{"startTime":473.072,"endTime":474.54,"body":"We can debate whether there are"},{"startTime":474.54,"endTime":477.91,"body":"those in government with too much power"},{"startTime":474.54,"endTime":477.91,"body":"or even that all."},{"startTime":477.91,"endTime":479.679,"body":"This is happening too fast."},{"startTime":479.679,"endTime":482.715,"body":"But what isn't up for debate"},{"startTime":479.679,"endTime":482.715,"body":"is that this has to happen."},{"startTime":484.016,"endTime":484.784,"body":"The United"},{"startTime":484.784,"endTime":488.154,"body":"States is no longer in a position"},{"startTime":484.784,"endTime":488.154,"body":"to waste money"},{"startTime":488.321,"endTime":491.824,"body":"or keep government"},{"startTime":488.321,"endTime":491.824,"body":"employee levels at anything above"},{"startTime":492.091,"endTime":494.36,"body":"what is absolutely necessary"},{"startTime":494.927,"endTime":496.963,"body":"to serve the people."},{"startTime":497.663,"endTime":501.601,"body":"There are approximately 4000"},{"startTime":497.663,"endTime":501.601,"body":"federal agencies."},{"startTime":502.301,"endTime":505.471,"body":"Many have duplicative"},{"startTime":502.301,"endTime":505.471,"body":"or overlapping services."},{"startTime":506.105,"endTime":510.843,"body":"Some continue to survive,"},{"startTime":506.105,"endTime":510.843,"body":"even though their mandate and function"},{"startTime":511.11,"endTime":512.945,"body":"no longer exists."},{"startTime":512.945,"endTime":514.514,"body":"They all have two things in common."},{"startTime":514.514,"endTime":519.151,"body":"They have a budget"},{"startTime":514.514,"endTime":519.151,"body":"and want a bigger budget next year."},{"startTime":519.352,"endTime":524.49,"body":"Now, the agency with the largest budget"},{"startTime":519.352,"endTime":524.49,"body":"now approaching 1 trillion"},{"startTime":525.024,"endTime":527.293,"body":"is, of course, the Department of Defense."},{"startTime":528.361,"endTime":530.763,"body":"The DOD has repeatedly failed"},{"startTime":531.163,"endTime":534.1,"body":"to complete a successful audit."},{"startTime":534.1,"endTime":537.537,"body":"To their credit, the Defense Department"},{"startTime":534.1,"endTime":537.537,"body":"has already offered up"},{"startTime":537.703,"endTime":540.907,"body":"weapons systems"},{"startTime":537.703,"endTime":540.907,"body":"and other cost cuts in advance"},{"startTime":540.907,"endTime":543.209,"body":"of those doing their analysis."},{"startTime":544.343,"endTime":547.046,"body":"Many of these systems likely"},{"startTime":544.343,"endTime":547.046,"body":"have been carried"},{"startTime":547.313,"endTime":550.816,"body":"at the request of members"},{"startTime":547.313,"endTime":550.816,"body":"of Congress on both sides of the aisle."},{"startTime":551.918,"endTime":554.22,"body":"Where the cut of a program or base"},{"startTime":554.22,"endTime":559.225,"body":"could impact both jobs and the economy"},{"startTime":554.22,"endTime":559.225,"body":"of a congressional district."},{"startTime":559.225,"endTime":560.893,"body":"Here's where I come out."},{"startTime":561.127,"endTime":564.363,"body":"Our military programs"},{"startTime":561.127,"endTime":564.363,"body":"should be based on national"},{"startTime":564.363,"endTime":567.4,"body":"security needs, not political interests."},{"startTime":568.167,"endTime":571.704,"body":"We can no longer justify funding systems"},{"startTime":568.167,"endTime":571.704,"body":"solely"},{"startTime":572.071,"endTime":574.74,"body":"because they provide jobs"},{"startTime":572.071,"endTime":574.74,"body":"in certain districts."},{"startTime":575.541,"endTime":580.68,"body":"Every defense dollar must go toward"},{"startTime":575.541,"endTime":580.68,"body":"programs that effectively protect"},{"startTime":580.913,"endTime":584.116,"body":"the United States from threats"},{"startTime":580.913,"endTime":584.116,"body":"both foreign"},{"startTime":584.25,"endTime":586.953,"body":"and domestic."},{"startTime":589.622,"endTime":591.991,"body":"Some final thoughts before we close out"},{"startTime":589.622,"endTime":591.991,"body":"the show."},{"startTime":593.192,"endTime":596.529,"body":"We're in a market"},{"startTime":593.192,"endTime":596.529,"body":"unlike any other in recent memory."},{"startTime":597.897,"endTime":601.033,"body":"The winners are pulling away"},{"startTime":597.897,"endTime":601.033,"body":"from the losers, and that gap is growing."},{"startTime":602.268,"endTime":604.837,"body":"We are in a news cycle that does not sleep"},{"startTime":605.771,"endTime":609.275,"body":"so investors"},{"startTime":605.771,"endTime":609.275,"body":"who recognize these changes in both policy"},{"startTime":609.275,"endTime":612.778,"body":"and market"},{"startTime":609.275,"endTime":612.778,"body":"dynamics will benefit in a big way."},{"startTime":614.213,"endTime":615.181,"body":"That's it for this week."},{"startTime":615.181,"endTime":616.382,"body":"Thanks for joining."},{"startTime":616.382,"endTime":620.553,"body":"And if you want to learn more about"},{"startTime":616.382,"endTime":620.553,"body":"the money runner go to my substack site."},{"startTime":620.953,"endTime":624.123,"body":"dcnelson123@substack.com."},{"startTime":624.857,"endTime":629.528,"body":"I'm David Nelson"},{"startTime":624.857,"endTime":629.528,"body":"and this is The Money Runner."}]}