From Henry to Cook & CMC! Analyzing Certainty of Top RB's Declining in 2026!

The days of a 1000-yard rusher in the NFL are over, 1200-1300 is the new norm, and for some RB's 1500 plus is cake! But, with all those carries and wear and tear, how long can these RB's last in the NFL. Q takes a look at several Top Tier NFL RB's he thinks take a major step back in 2026.#nfl #nflnews #nflfootball #nfldebate

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:04

What's going on, everyone? Welcome to a Q Cut edition of On Q. As always, I'm your host, Rich Cununes. Uh, don't forget, get social with us at Rich Q On Q on X, and of course on Twitter, TikTok, RichQ on the mic. Very easy to get connected with me. And a Q Cut version basically is a little rapid fire, about 10 to 15 minutes to play with. And I wanted to get right into it on this Saturday in March. Uh, we know that the NFL is always in full gear. And this is kind of a series of videos I'm going to do uh leading up to the uh kickoff 2026, uh September kickoff in the NFL. And I know we say it's right around the corner, but we've got a lot of content to get into, and I want to get right into it starting right now. And I want you guys to also comment below your thoughts, your takes, your opinions, the running backs, the top running backs that are going to be taking a step back in 2026. Now, I've got three of them, and I've got some numbers I want to share with you guys as well. And look, to some of you guys, you might sit there and say, Q, you're taking the easy way out. Well, I've kind of stayed in my case on some of these running backs, but I want to give you some really interesting numbers. 17 backs in 2025 rushed for over a thousand yards. One of them over 1,600, three over 1,500, 9 over 1,000. I believe right now the norm of the thousand yard back, it's been gone for the last several years because we've seen these backs have monster seasons. 12 to 1,300, I think, is 10 years ago, 15 years ago, a thousand yards, right? Especially with the 17-game season. So let's just be tad aggressive for a moment. Let's just say 1,300, that's the argument. That's the barometer. That's a hell of a season, right? So typically these backs right now in the NFL, you got to average right around 76 yards per game. Again, conservative, 1822 uh touches. Now you're talking 4.1, 4.2 yards a clip. That pretty much gets you right around 1,200. You know, so the days of 1,000, 11, 12, 1,300, to me, that's kind of where we're looking at. That's a decent season. Anything above that, that's a hell of a season. And I gave you the numbers with backs going over 1,400, 1,500 yards, right? So the top three in yardage. So the top three in yardage last year, and I think we all know, right, we're talking about the usual suspects, right? So you had James Cook rush for over 1600, Derek Henry rush for over 1,500, five yards shy of 1600 with the Ravens. Jonathan Taylor had an outstanding season, then got banged up, still right under 1600 yards for the Colts. And it's interesting to kind of put it in perspective. So let me give you my three that I believe take a step back. The Bills, James Cook, uh, the Ravens, Derrick Henry, and San Francisco CMC, who I think is just a remarkable back. So let's start with the Bills and James Cook, who rushed for 16-21, 309 touches, an average of 5.2, second best yards per carry of his career. He hit 5.7 yards per carry his rookie season, but to put it in perspective, 16 games, but he also only carried the football 89 times. Now, 2024, he played in 16 games. He rushed the ball 207 times. In 2025, he ran it 309 times, almost 100 more touches. Six times he had 20 or more carries, not including 24 in the division round playoff loss to Denver. Buffalo turned around and they wanted to add another weapon on the offensive side of the football for Josh Allen because they believe the window is closing in the AFC. That Super Bowl window is closing. So they trade for the Bears. They bring in a veteran wide receiver, DJ Moore, stretch the field a little bit, a game breaker, right? Because they needed that extra weapon. Now, I just want to go back for a second. You got Joe Brady, he was the offensive coordinator, right? McDermott got fired. Now you got Brady as the head coach. He's pretty much uh expressed a desire to kind of evolve this offense in 2026. And I think they're gonna try to look more to maximize a player like uh Shakir, the wide receiver, who's so talented. You can get him in space, you can have him wheel routes, you can, you know, pitch him the ball, you can get him on the slant, you can get him lined up outside anywhere, right? So basically, you know, let's do those, you know, let's try to hit those quick hitters as opposed to short range passes. Here we go. Uh, and I also think with more now, they want to throw the ball. They want to be more of a passing team, which typically with Josh Allen, you're gonna be. I just don't see the carries and the workload being the same for Cooks, knowing that Brady wants to install a different type of mindset and mentality. Now, is he gonna go for a thousand? Yes. I say 1100 is the tops for Cook, uh, James Cook next season. All right, Derek Henry. And I know this is you know low-bearing fruit. Listen, it Derrick Henry is a phenomenal back, he's unbelievable. Um, now I I just think he's he's a Hall of Fame back. I mean, Derek Henry to me is your prototypical get him running downfield, and he's just very hard to crack. And he's in ridiculous shape at 32 years old. His 2025 numbers were great, 1,500 plus yards, over 300 carries, 17 games played. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry. He also, um, again, think about this 400 plus yards less than what he did in 2024 when he ran close to 2,000 yards. And that's always the drop off that we talk about with somebody's backs with that big workload. I'll talk a little more about that in a moment. So if you think about this, Derrick Henry is a guy that they crank him up, especially in the fourth quarter. Now, we know what happened with um Todd Munkin, the offensive coordinator. We talked about the efficiency over volume. Let's have that 21 personnel, two running backs, right? Fullback, gap scheme. Here we go, run game efficient rather than just high volume. And I think what happened was that last season, what did we see? What did we see? We saw the fact that they went away from the run a little too much, especially late in some of those games. And I think it kind of bit them in the fanny. You got a very good quarterback, an all-pro quarterback in Lamar Jackson. You've got very good wide receivers, and who knows if they make a trade for another wide receiver in the offseason. You got a pretty decent tight end. Yes, they lose likely who signs with the New York Giants. But I think if you're taking a step back and you're looking at this balanced approach, right? Especially under new head coach Jesse Minter, I think he wants to utilize a ground and pound dominating run game. And I think that's great. You want to use those offensive linemen, create holes, hit the gap, control the gap, control the clock. I love it. I love it because it's gonna take pressure off of Lamar Jackson. You're not gonna see him scramble as much. Now, with all that being said, I also think that's an issue because the wear and tear of Derrick Henry. And I think at this point he's been playing with fire. And I can see that body breaking down, and I also believe they're gonna have to rely on a little bit of depth. Now, here's the issue with that. So we're in early mid-March right now. Now, they haven't officially cut their running back Justice Hill. Now, everyone thinks at the end of the day, that's gonna be a salary cap candidate for the 2026 offseason. He's under contract, uh, but again, you're talking about uh a player that they deem kind of a high value saving kind of target, um, injury filled, right? He missed eight games last season due to injuries. Uh Keaton Mitchell signs with the Chargers. Now, again, you know, you're gonna have to get some touches in somewhere. So if you're the Baltimore Ravens and you're kind of looking around, all right, we know Derrick Henry is a beast. We know Derrick Henry's 32 years of age. We know Derrick Henry has had some wear and tear. He went from 325 carries in 2024 to 307 carries in 2025. That is not a huge drop off. It isn't a huge drop-off, but question is who is gonna spill him a little bit? Now, are they gonna look to get Rashin Ali more into the flow of the offense, who's more or less a special teams type of player? I think Derrick Henry, I can see him hitting that 11-12, but I think the days of 14 to 1500 are over. And I would not be shocked if he didn't play a complete season. I think they're gonna just run him in the ground, and that's not gonna be a good thing. I love the mentality, but you also have to be very judicious with Derrick Henry and his carries, especially at his age. All right, and then lastly, we got CMC. Uh, arguably, uh, we can say an MVP candidate last season for the San Francisco 49ers, Mr. Everything on offense, 311 rushes, career high, 1,202 yards, 3.9 yards per tote, 10 touchdowns, played in 17 games, not to mention what he did out of the backfield as a wide receiver. He touched the ball 413 total times. Incredible. He's also going to be 30 in the summer. He's also injury prone. That's the reality. And listen, this might be a bowl take, but I don't even see him getting a thousand yards. He might top 900 rushing, maybe 850 receiving. And I think what they're trying to do now, back end of 30, you need to preserve him, especially when you're talking about a uh a 29, 30, 31-year-old back coming off a high volume season, right? 400 and something, 450 odd touches. He's gonna be productive, yes, but I think he's gonna have this decline in efficiency. And I'm a little worried he might get burned out. And we know he's an injury-prone back. We know the 49ers always seem to get hit with some big-time injuries. I don't know how much of the offense now they want to include Mike Evans, the acquisition they made from uh the Tampa Bay Bucks, the long, you know, um long-tendered veteran wide receiver also coming off an injury. So maybe they want to pass it a little more, but you still got CMC coming out of the backfield. We know they want to run. We know Kyle Shanahan wants to run the football, but they have to manage that workload. They got to prioritize reducing his touches to ensure that he remains healthy, not only throughout the course of the season, especially if they get to the playoffs. Now, you know, we've seen this, right? Saquon Barkley, 2024 with the Philadelphia Eagles, after all those years with the Giants in a bad offensive line, goes over 2,345 touches, average 5.8. What happened last season with the Philadelphia Eagles and Saquon in that line? 280 touches for 1,140 yards. You're talking almost a 900-yard drop-off and also a yard, 1.7 yard drop off in touches. And I'll leave you guys with this. And I want to know your thoughts too in the comments if you agree, disagree, if you have other backs that you think might have a drop-off. Go and look at some of those backs that have had the 300 plus yard seasons and then the following seasons. Chris, uh, Chris Johnson, right? Uh, 2,000 rushing yards in 2009. Didn't crack 1400 the next season. DeMarco Murray, uh, if you recall 2014, that was a massive load of touch in the football, 449 touches. That dropped uh just exponentially in 2015. Derrick Henry, Christian McCafferty both suffered injuries or missed games following 390 plus uh touch seasons. Steven Jackson, that battering ram for the Rams, uh AP Adrian Peterson both saw production decline after back-to-back 300 plus carry seasons 2008, 2009, respectively. Give me your thoughts. Let me know what you guys think. What backs in your estimation or top three, four, or five backs are taking a step back? And don't forget, you can always follow along if you like the content, subscribe to my YouTube channel. Don't forget also, you can hear me Monday to Friday with on Q on SR1029FM, the game, Coastal Sports Digital uh Network, part of the Odyssey family. Our little Q cuts, our quick hitters. We're gonna do a lot with these videos. We want you guys to engage and comment. If you agree, disagree, you want to call me out, not a problem. We'll have fun with it. We are powered by our good friends over at Fresh Roasted Coffee. Check out the show notes on Q20. That's your promo code to save on your first purchase. So we'll talk a lot more of the offensive weapons. We'll go to the quarterbacks, the wide receivers. We're also gonna go heavy with the defensive side of the ball as we continue to kind of just um cut these videos up. A lot to talk about with the NFL offseason. But again, today's topic, the backs that I believe take a step back in 2026. I want to hear from you guys out there. And if you've been subscribing to the channel, engaging with me on the air Monday to Friday, I greatly appreciate it. Have a good sport Saturday, and as always, we'll talk to you guys Monday live at four o'clock Eastern time, four to six, right here on Kiel.