Must Win?

We discuss Week 14 matchups, betting tips, and fantasy football advice. Key games include Packers vs. Lions, Falcons vs. Vikings, Steelers vs. Browns, Seahawks vs. Cardinals, and Chiefs vs. Chargers. They also share insights on teams like Jaguars and Titans, and players like Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins, and Calvin Ridley. Join the conversation and get the latest scoop on fantasy league updates and betting strategies!

Chapters

• 0:28 Week 14 Fantasy Football Playoff Hunt
• 1:24 Betting Wins and Losses Recap
• 2:34 Thursday Night Game: Packers vs. Lions
• 7:42 Revenge Game: Falcons vs. Vikings
• 11:07 Steelers vs. Browns
• 13:45 Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Unpredictable Matchup
• 15:52 Chiefs vs. Chargers: Trap Game Alert
• 19:47 Early Betting Lines and Prop Bets
• 21:52 Closing Remarks and Sign-Off

Transcript

pershin: 0:00

Teams are actually on by this week.

Jason: 0:03

That's right. A lot of the good teams are on by welcome, welcome, welcome to a mini episode of the pie on pony podcast. It's me, DOG, along with the fantasy uncle what's happening, Persian.

pershin: 0:15

Hey, yo. Glad to be back. Do a little week 14. Look ahead. Man, I can't believe we're already on week 14.

Jason: 0:23

I know, college season. Is that championship week? It is

pershin: 0:27

flowing by my friend. Hopefully your fantasy teams are in the playoff hunt. Most leagues I'll have, you know, to be starting in the next couple weeks here. So

Jason: 0:36

I have, you know, I did officially clinch a playoff birth in one of four leagues. Hey, yo, I am eliminated in one of the leagues. Oh shit. And I'm in the, I'm in the hunt in two leagues, but one of'em, I have to win. I have to win out. Well, obviously both of'em I have to win out, but

pershin: 0:58

it happens.

Jason: 0:59

One of them I have to win and and other people have to lose and you know Yeah, and you need

pershin: 1:05

to win the medians and

Jason: 1:06

yeah and all that bullshit. So it's a lot going on there So yeah, man Let's get into it. Let's start the show

1:18

The Pied Pony Podcast.

Jason: 1:24

So last week man, I hit I hit pretty good on my parlays. I crushed it on the Thursday night games I hit I took You Not only did I win on taking the spreads and the over unders, I won on the money line in the over unders on the same games. I want a hundred bucks on, on 10.

pershin: 1:47

Yeah. I lost all four of the bets that I placed Thursday. I try, I tried to bet on the spreads. Yeah, I did. Oh man,

Jason: 2:01

that's unfortunate.

pershin: 2:02

I did a little work on the dinner spread. But did not do much on the point spreads, but I was, I was due for some regression. I I've actually been on a bit of a hot sheet or so, so I knew it wasn't going to last too long.

Jason: 2:18

He's been on a heater.

pershin: 2:19

I try, I tried to, I tried to you know, get the upset call of the dolphins and how that was going to play out. And of course it went the exact opposite way. So, no some pretty good game. So.

Jason: 2:32

Yeah, so let's, let's get into this week. Speaking of the Packers, we got Thursday night game Packers Lions spread is Detroit three and a half. Give it up three and a half and over under is 51 and a half at Ford field.

pershin: 2:46

Yeah. Oh

Jason: 2:47

man.

pershin: 2:48

I, I like the over. I'll tell you right now. I think that these teams offenses are going to be able to put up points against these teams defenses.

Jason: 3:00

I think that let's just if you want to look at the last game, it was 24 to 14.

pershin: 3:07

That's true that man, that's a good point. I kind of forget that a lot of times these interdivisional games are harder. They end up being way more defensive than you expect. Well,

Jason: 3:21

there was a time where there was a game with a certain quarterback named Matt Flynn, where there was a 50 something to 50 something. So plus, but this game is at Ford Field, so it's not outside of the pack that may or may not affect it. So I, I like the over too. Yeah.

pershin: 3:41

Yeah. I mean, it's just some pretty good offenses. How confident, Josh Jacobs, how confident are you feeling about this one? I think that the Lions actually are the toughest matchup in the league right now I I would rather play the Eagles or the Ravens the Chiefs The the Vikings I'd rather play any of them other than the Lions personally,

Jason: 4:10

but well, I mean in this game I like, by the way, I like the overs, like the Josh Jacobs, Jordan loves passing yards and all that for prop bet wise, but I don't know, man, it's right now it's, it's hard to say which Packers team is going to show up sometimes. Like I know Jordan loves going to sling the rock, but as far as the offensive line, what's the running game going to look like? Like I need more. From josh jacobs than last game. He did a great job last game, but I need a hundred yard game this game because we need to control the clock We need to run the ball like you said to set up the put set up more of our offense And then you know is I I see jair was at practice today And romeo dobbs was there so You know, we'll see if they if they make a comeback Yeah, I don't know, man. Is this game could go either way, man. Either team could, cause last year, remember last year, everyone thought the lions were coming in and we're going to go on and beat the Packers. And the Packers came in and just absolutely spanked them.

pershin: 5:23

Yeah.

Jason: 5:24

Like, like ran the score up. Like it was a bloodbath.

pershin: 5:28

I, I also, like, I feel a little bit better about the lions after last week. Because like, It really did seem like the bears had figured out a way, at least in the second half to slow down the line. And it wasn't fluky. It wasn't like, Oh, the lines just kept getting penalties to stop their drives or whatever. Like they, they really were just slowing them down and getting these small two, three yard gains and shit. And so you know, kind of leaves a door open that maybe other teams can. basically mirror that same sort of thing. They could take that and be like, okay, we're gonna use this same sort of strategy here. And certainly the Packers have enough talent on the defense where they could play any style of defense that they wanted to. I think I like the Lions here, just because I just think they're the strongest, most all around team in the league. That's all I needed to hear, baby. Packers are winning. Yeah, I know, right? Hey. But real quickly, I do think that there's a couple props that I think are exploitable here. Most places are gonna have Jacobs over under two and a half receptions. And when you actually look at his game log, you'll see that in games where the Packers are in a close game, he gets a decent amount of targets. Whereas whenever they're like comfortably ahead, he basically gets no targets, at least in the second half. So I expect him to get. Three or four, maybe even five catches. So I really think that the 2. 5 is easy. That's an easy over there. Also in the same token, it's pretty much the same thing with Jared Goff. Like they will run the ball all game long if you let them, but I think the Packers are going to do enough to keep this game close, which means the same thing. With jared goff most places got his over under at 245 I really like the over there. I think he's going to pass more than In most games and so I think both of those are really good sort of props to pick up at least early in the week Here

Jason: 7:42

right on Okay Well, let's look at the next game revenge game for Kirk Cousins and they're playing, the Falcons are playing the Minnesota Vikings,

pershin: 7:53

very, very interesting

Jason: 7:56

in Minnesota. So he knows how to play in that stadium. Minnesota is a five and a half point favorite with a 45 and a half point over under to me, man. Dude, Kirk Cousins is, this has been one of his worst seasons. He has not improved. It. The falcons at all, like there's six and six, you could

pershin: 8:16

tell that he's got 13

Jason: 8:17

picks.

pershin: 8:18

You could tell that the injury is still affecting him. His mobility is just zero. I mean, he does not move around the pocket. Like, I mean, if you put pressure on him, he either throws it away or he gets sacked. I mean,

Jason: 8:34

Go ahead and put Pinnix in man, just give Pinnix some time.

pershin: 8:38

If he has another game like last week, they will. I think they will.

Jason: 8:43

Like not even to just win, just to like, who cares, just give him some reps man. Yeah. And if you win, you win. If you get lucky, you win. I, I. But I mean. I will say, I

pershin: 8:55

will say the revenge narrative has been strong recently. I know that this past week, obviously, Jerry and Judy went ham on my Broncos. And then also and the, in the New York Jets game Leonard Williams was having a hell of a game. This motherfucker, I don't know if you saw the play, but this motherfucker had an A 98 yard pick six. Yeah.

Jason: 9:19

Yeah.

pershin: 9:19

As a defensive tackle he went back into coverage, got the interception, and then he made a man miss a defensive tackle, made a man miss for a 98 yard return for a touchdown.

Jason: 9:36

That's hilarious.

pershin: 9:38

I'm just, revenge, just motivates these motherfuckers, man. they just, Hey man. So I, I think. I would not be surprised if, if Kirk Cousins comes out here with the extra motivation and he actually plays well. And he says, fuck it, shoot me up with whatever you need to shoot in my damn leg, my foot, my ankle, whatever it is. And you know, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a come out here and put it on him.

Jason: 10:03

We'll see. I don't know, man. I mean, it's certainly going to be close because Minnesota didn't play very well. They, they, Minnesota hasn't been as hot, I feel like, as they were. Like, they're getting more of a close wins now.

pershin: 10:16

Yeah. I do also, though, I do recognize that the situation could literally just be that he just can't anymore. And so all the motivation in the world isn't going to matter because, I mean, if he just can't put strength under his passes, he's He can't move out of, out of pressure. I mean, if you can't, then you can't, you know what I'm saying? So

Jason: 10:37

I think this defense is going to put it

pershin: 10:39

on him. I think if he's ever going to have a bounce back spot, this would be it. But if this is an ugly game, then it might just be Jover for Kurt. And so we might be seeing panics with that big panics energy.

Jason: 10:57

Yeah. You got to put the big peanuts in. Penixin got to put the big pen. Oh Lord. All right. Next game. We're going to talk about Mike Tomlin and the magic beans or not so magic anymore, because he's just a good coach versus the Browns in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a six and a half point favorite with a 43 and a half point. Over under.

pershin: 11:23

Smash that over. Smash that over. No, see, no, I

Jason: 11:27

disagree. See, you want to smash the over because of what you just saw, the Bengals game, what you just saw, the Broncos. Jameis

pershin: 11:34

is a maniac. That's

Jason: 11:36

not gonna happen this game.

pershin: 11:37

He's going for the gusto every fucking play, bro. If he ain't scoring touchdowns of his own, he will score your team touchdowns, but points will be had. The Broncos over under was 41 and they had like 75 points in that game. Like I'm telling you, I don't care. Throw out everything I said about division matchups. I don't care. I'm telling you it's going to be a barn burner.

Jason: 12:05

I am not touching this game at all. Russ

pershin: 12:08

Wilson just proved that he can do the barn burner thing if he needs to. But why can't he just

Jason: 12:14

do it on a regular basis? I

pershin: 12:16

don't know. I can't, I cannot understand. I don't understand these things.

Jason: 12:19

Why does it have to be a shootout? Why can't he just score points?

pershin: 12:23

This is why I say Magic Beans, because I don't understand it. I don't know how it works, but it works. That's all I know. All I know is it works. The Steelers will win the game, but I like the over anyway.

Jason: 12:36

I hope they do win the game, because I really would love for the Steelers to win this division that they're currently leading at 9 3. It's just, I don't know, man. I just love me some Mike Tomlin. Give him, give him another

pershin: 12:51

10 year extension. Fuck it.

Jason: 12:54

I don't, I, however, I'm not touching this game. I think six and a half points is a fucking big spread. That's a big time spread for an interdivisional game. I'm not going to throw out all the things that you've previously said about interdivisional games. And I do think this is going to be a lot closer and probably going to be more in the realm of like seven to nine. Or 10 to 15.

pershin: 13:21

So you're smashing the under.

Jason: 13:24

If I was a bet man, I would take the under of 43 and a half.

pershin: 13:27

If I was a, you are a bet man. Stop.

Jason: 13:30

You stop it. I only place bets on days that end in Y, man. Leave me alone. I don't, you have the problem. I only place bets when I say Y not. From one interdivisional game to another. This, this is for This is, you know, a big time race here. We've got the Seahawks Cardinals, 7 5 Seahawks, 6 6 Cardinals. Arizona's a two and a half point favorite with a 44 and a half over. Man, what do you think about this game?

pershin: 14:02

This, this is one that I don't want to touch. I feel like I cannot figure out either of these teams.

Jason: 14:08

No, no.

pershin: 14:09

I feel like the Cardinals come out and they lay an egg versus someone like the Raiders. And then they, they play Minnesota so tough last week. I mean, they probably should have won that game, honestly, but it's like, you just never know which version of the Cardinals you're getting. Sometimes the defense looks God awful. Sometimes it actually looks pretty good. Same thing with Kyler. He's very

Jason: 14:33

streaky. How late did he stay up the night before? Yeah. Did he, I'm gonna keep making that joke. I'm gonna keep making that joke. Did he get to bed

pershin: 14:40

on time? That probably makes, you know what Im saying, A big difference. Yeah. I, you know, I don't know. I, I feel the same way about the Seahawks defense. Some of these games, man.

Jason: 14:51

Did they get the bet on

pershin: 14:52

time? Some of the, yeah. Did the entire defense stay up like have a slumber party at someone's houses?

Jason: 14:59

Did they have a land par? Did they have a Call of Duty? Land party?

pershin: 15:02

I just, I just feel like Some of these games their defense looks so good and in other games they look really bad So I just I'm staying away from this game. I'm doing the I'm not a betting man approach on this

Jason: 15:17

Oh, you're not a betting man. Okay. Okay. I mean I like the Cardinals just cuz they're at home. However, though the At 44 and a half is That's that's dicey. That's a dicey number because this game could easily be just like 21 21 or like, you know 21 17 or 21 28. I

pershin: 15:41

could just as easily see this being like 13 17 as I could like 31 34, right? Because

Jason: 15:48

last week's game was like what? 1917 something like that.

pershin: 15:51

Yeah. Yeah,

Jason: 15:52

so All right, and in the final game We're gonna talk about the Kansas City Chieffers, or I mean Chiefs and the, what is it, the L. A. Jim Harbaughs?

pershin: 16:08

The L. A. Fightin Harbaughs.

Jason: 16:10

The L. A. Fightin Harbaughs. Chiefs are a three and a half point favorite with a forty two and a half over under. I, you know what, this is I'm calling chargers on this game. This, this is the game. Only because the Holmes and company have been playing with fire for weeks, for weeks. And to me, this is not the team to play with that fire because they, they play hardball ball. And they, and, and that's a slow clock burn. Yep. And, and if the Chiefs get behind at all, I can see where they run into a position where, where they just run out of time.

pershin: 16:50

Yeah, I was thinking the same way about this game where it's just like, you know what? This seems like the classic trap game where finally, they're fucking with fire and they finally get their fingers burnt. And they don't pull out the three point win. Instead, they get the three point loss. I think it's going to be a close game, but I think that they finally are on the other side of it. And you know, I think that Harbaugh, the only

Jason: 17:15

thing that hurts the chargers is JK Dobbins is on the IR.

pershin: 17:19

Yeah,

Jason: 17:20

that's true. Gus

pershin: 17:21

Edwards is like a pretty. Noticeable, like, downgrade in my opinion. Also, like, Ladd McConkie kept having to leave the game last week, so he's questionable right now, he's not practicing. Hopefully, he might take

Jason: 17:36

back my

pershin: 17:36

Chargers pick.

Jason: 17:38

I think that if, if chiefs are going to blow them out now,

pershin: 17:41

I think that if they don't have lead, it might change my opinion for real because they've really been leaning on him the past couple of weeks, 27 targets, and he didn't even play most of the second half last week. So

Jason: 17:53

yeah, it

pershin: 17:54

is a pretty big deal if he's out. I do think that the, the chiefs are in a tough spot right now with their offensive line. They've actually got their guard, Joe Tooney playing at. At left tackle because things have gotten so bad at the tackle position. I did notice like two or three times, like in this game where Mahomes was. Yelling about the offensive line either literally yelling at the lineman or yelling at Andy Reid about the lineman so it Like it's a pretty big problem and the Chargers do get after the quarterback pretty well, so I'm

Jason: 18:36

sorry I'm just imagining him yelling in his Kermit the Frog voice Oh, come on now guys, get on, get, get on the damn ball.

pershin: 18:43

Hey, hey, he's very nonplussed, okay. But yeah, that, that, that's kind of what I'm looking at. They did sign DJ Humphrey like three weeks ago. He has not played a snap yet. But if he is going to end up being their starter at left tackle, I do think that helps them. He's a little long in the tooth, but he probably is still an upgrade versus the, the clown show that they've had there this year. And I think that helps them also, of course, the Ladd McConkie thing is worth monitoring. But provided that everyone's playing, I think that the chargers pull out, eek out the victory here. Eek out, eek out the victory. It'd be close either way, man. Cause it's the chiefs.

Jason: 19:28

I like it. You know, it might need a little rough help. Just kidding. Shout out, Derek. I know you're listening. Anyway, you got any other props or anything that you want people to look after? Or

pershin: 19:41

yeah I already gave you the Thursday game, a couple of props that I've already placed that I've already put down on. But also some early lines that just got released today. I really like the Tennessee versus Jacksonville game. For those people who are not nerding out on these stats all the time, like I am, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not just the worst in the league at passing efficiency, like from a defensive standpoint, but they're actually last in the league by a long ways. And so you've got will love us at 205 yards. Most places. I really liked the over. He's actually gotten. All he's gotten over that all three of the weeks since he's been back from being benched. And those were tougher defenses than he's going to have to deal with this time around. And same thing with his number one guy, Calvin Ridley, find anywhere between 60 and 65 yards as to over under. I got money down on prize picks. 62. 5. I think that's an easy over. He's going to get peppered again. There's a horrible past defense. They don't have players that can hang with Ridley very well. And then the last line that I really like here is Cade Otten under 45 yards receiving. Since the in the past two games, Mike Evans has been back. Since Mike Evans has been back, K Dot is no longer the first read focus of this passing game. He has Gotten 20 yards and then 30 yards. But he's just not seeing the same kind of uses, especially down the field. So I think that it's a pretty easy under 45 yards receiving for chaotic.

Jason: 21:24

Yeah. I'm liking that, man. I'm really like, I got Calvin Ridley on one of my teams, so

pershin: 21:29

yeah, I think this is the week. Do not bench Calvin Ridley. If you think about playing them and you're like,

Jason: 21:34

I haven't. I don't know if i've been it is it

pershin: 21:36

is literally the best matchup that you could have for a quarterback And their number one drive receiver so hit the overs on those props think about playing them in your dfs's and get them in your fantasy teams

Jason: 21:50

Absolutely. Well, that's all the scoops we have for you this week as always the you can hit up some of the sites we hit up like the one I did on thanksgiving called sports Xeno that one kind of allows you to place Be bets anywhere. I mean, that was the only place I could use in Costa Rica. So that was awesome.

pershin: 22:10

Hey,

Jason: 22:11

But yeah, you can find those and more just by going up to signupexpert. com Backslash pine pony and then put the location to wherever you are Sign up as a new user and then you know win some cash

pershin: 22:25

Yeah,

Jason: 22:25

and as always, you know take advantage of those free squares

pershin: 22:30

Yeah, it's it's free money You A lot of people that are listening to football podcasts such as this one Are interested in placing wagers or playing fantasy and stuff like that anyways Everything at the signup expert has promos attached to it. It's free money. Go ahead and get your free wagers. You never know when you could turn a free 100 bucks, 50 bucks, whatever it is into a much bigger payout. Cause you know, sometimes you just get lucky. So,

Jason: 23:02

you know, you already ran out of the other promo cash you got at the beginning of the season. So now you need to rebid promo cash.

pershin: 23:08

You know, you're all outta your DK money, your, your under, you know, need to find a new website,

Jason: 23:14

Yeah. You know, you need to make a new account. Go to like Sports Zeno or Profit X or, you know parlay play. Those are, that one's my favorite. But anyway, sports Zeno and Parlay play are the two that I have the most cash in right now.

pershin: 23:31

Nice.

Jason: 23:31

So, as always, we'll catch you next week. See ya.