Getting Close to the end

In this special mini-sode edition of the Pine Pony Podcast, We preview NFL Week 15 games and discuss Bill Belichick mulling over a coaching offer from UNC. We get into matchups like Packers vs. Seahawks, Chiefs vs. Browns, Dolphins vs. Texans, and more! We also analyze key NFL players, including Jordan Love, Geno Smith, Jameis Winston, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff. The episode wraps with playoff scenarios and prop bet suggestions for players like Bryce Young and Brian Thomas. 

Chapters

• 1:09 Bill Belichick's Potential Move to UNC
• 3:52 Packers vs Seahawks
• 8:07 Chiefs on Upset Alert Against the Browns
• 11:34 Dolphins vs Texans: A Potential Shootout
• 14:44 Bills vs Lions: High-Scoring Showdown
• 16:51 Steelers vs Eagles: Defensive Battle
• 18:45 Colts vs Broncos: Playoff Implications
• 20:46 NFL Playoff Picture and Predictions
• 24:09 Prop Bets and Final Thoughts

Transcript

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Welcome, welcome, welcome to a Minnesota edition of the Palm Pony podcast is media OG as always with the fantasy uncle. What's happening Pershing? Howdy. Howdy. Glad to be back with you. Talk some more ball. Always a good time. Do a little look ahead preview to week 15 guys. It's, it's wild. Wow. Wow. We're on week 15. I mean, We just had championship games last week in college. So that's effectively like over, like we don't have any games, but army Navy this week in college. So we got to wait two weeks for the chant for the playoff games and then bowl season. Man, time flies. The UFL. Here we go. Hey, I watched a couple of games for you last year. Yeah, oh man, those are tough ones to watch. Anyway, let's, let's get on with the show. The Pied Pony Podcast. So first thing I wanted to bring up was Bill Belichick is mulling over a UNC offer to come coach at the college ranks. So he, he apparently has, yeah, go ahead. When you say mulling over, he has already agreed to take on the job, right? Or he has, he, he has agreed. But he has given them basically a 400 page document of like This is how I want things to go Are you going to agree to this? Oh So they're mulling it over basically Yeah, I mean it's kind of like they're both kind of you know Feeling the waters and giving each other a list of demands and and so far It seems like UNC wants to do the deal because they already agreed to that his son would be named his successor So my guess is is that he's head coach for a couple years here Then he goes back to the NFL to get the all time wins record. That makes a lot of Z's that makes a lot of sense Yeah, his son goes but what's interesting is I mean you could say to a recruit. Hey I'm a recruiter I can get you, I, I, people trust me in the NFL because what he would do is he would like only exclusively draft like first round talent from like Alabama or like Nick Saban. Like he had a certain coach that he trusted the most and he would try to draft what was at the, you know, if it's the best available player and that's what like he would draft it. Yeah. Like just because he, it was like that coach. So it'll be interesting to see if he gets, if they agree and he is the next coach and how, how that works out. Cause I mean, we don't typically see NFL coaches that have had a successful, long career go breaking the winds, the all time wins record. Yeah. I mean, the only other person was like Herm Edwards and he, I wouldn't say he had a long successful career, but I mean, he had a good career, but he did not have a good career in college. He was very bad. I got to think this would be good for UNC. Yes. Oh yeah. For UNC. This is yeah. Anyway, we'll, so we'll see how we'll see what happens in the coming weeks with that. Let's move on to the nfl's week So some of the games we're going to look at first game on my list is the packers seahawks that is the Sunday sunday night game Prime time sunday night another prime time game Really featured they were like aim of the wheeler loves not going to be ready Jordan loves not going to be ready until the second half of the season You So we want to make sure we catch the Packers when he's in his mojo. So then we'll schedule nothing but prime time games. Yeah. They have, well, they have been on a roll, haven't they? Two Thursday nights and now it's a Sunday night. And so green Bay is a three point favorite with a total of 45 and a half. I like green Bay to win this, even if it's in Seattle. I think we've got too much firepower on offense for Seattle. I think the defense can produce turnovers and get Gino Smith and company in a position to where they're going to have to lean more on the throw. So I like green Bay. As far as some of the props, maybe Jordan loves for completions have been. Way under the radar. So anything like less as far as 30 into 33, 30, 32 for past attempts, I've liked less than that because he hasn't had to throw the ball a lot. Yeah. You know, and I think this is going to be a game where they're going to be up. I, I agree with that. I like the unders for love attempts and completions, because basically what you've already said is like the past month, they've been sneaky run heavy. They've actually just leaned into the run and why not? It's working well. Josh Jake has been balling out. The offensive line has been opening up whole holes. Well, and even, you know the backups, you know, guy like Emmanuel Wilson, sneaky, decent guy, you know the way that defenses really want to play the Packers much like most of the league really is just with that constant too high cover shell, inviting the run. I like that the Packers have said, all right, well, fuck it. You want to let us get five or six pop, then we'll get five or six pop on the ground. Yeah, a hundred percent. And you could tell Jordan love is kind of, he's feeling it. He's not injured anymore. He's, he's bouncing around in the pocket and just, you know, he, I've noticed more and more, I've watched him play when he's got a clean pocket, he's kind of just like hopping. And then he does like a one like a little hop and then he slings it and I just this is like one of his little quirks that I've yeah just picked up on. I did notice last game he looked really quick when he was evading pressure and that so you got to think he's fully healthy at this point. What do you think about Gino Smith, man? You think, you think he could do anything this game or? Well, I feel like the Packers defense is kind of hit and miss against the past. Like they've had games where it seems like they've, they've successfully shut the past game down on the other side, but then there's also been games where it seems like it's been open season and where it's like missed assignments and shit, where it's like, all right, well. There was a big, huge play and there's a big, huge play. So it's, I, I'm just not sure how I feel. I I'm not confident one way or the other that the Packers passing game is I are passing defense is either going to be really strong or really weak. I guess I would just kind of stay away. The stuff that I've seen early in the week for Gino Smith just basically seems kind of around his average. So I've just kind of stayed away from it. My, myself, I don't, I don't feel too convicted one way or the other like the DK Metcalf and the JSN stuff. It all seems like we're right about where I would probably put it. You know, there's not too much to exploit there. Absolutely Next game i'm going to talk about I am again Gonna put the chiefs on upset alert again I'm gonna do it. They have the browns and the james roller coaster Is ready to launch again after a pretty pretty bad game against the steelers You I think he's due for another good game. So we're back on the uphill swing on this roller coaster ride. And what, what better team to do that again than, than the Chiefs at home. They're playing, they're playing at home. They got the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been struggling lately. Every game has been close. This is a, this is a prime, prime game for upset alert. Chiefs are four and a half point favorite total 44 and a half I like the browns Just winning outright And i'll take the under I don't think this is going to be a high scoring game I think jamus will throw the ball a lot. I think he'll throw some picks but I just think because of the defense They'll win the game like 21 to like 18 or 19, you know, like a three point game or something like that. Yeah. You know, seven points, something, something small. Yeah, cuz that's the way the Chiefs been playing. That is exactly the Chiefs been playing. I agree with a lot of that I was gonna say from this game. I really like the Browns passing stuff You can get Jameis at two forty four and a half passing yards and the thing is that like You see, he's played the Steelers twice now since he's been the starter and the Steelers are really good about shutting him down for whatever reason. He only has, I think he's got 211 yards in one of their game, 212 in the other. Aside from those games, every other game, he's well above this 244 mark and the Chiefs certainly get credit for having a good defense. But the weird thing about the Chiefs is that they're actually first in the league. Versus the run, meaning they have the best defensive run. They're actually slightly below average though, versus the path. So this is not a, something where you really want to shy away from passing against the chiefs. The Browns not so good at running versus passing anyways. I think that. All of this leads towards Jameis smashing that 244. I think that's just too low of a mark. Not only that, but also the Jerry Judy too, that in the same regard, there's just been one week since Jameis has been the starter where Jerry Judy has not gone over 64 yards. So obviously I just think that number's too low. Again, the Chiefs passing defense is not anything you need to shy away from necessarily So I I like both the jerry judy overs and the winston overs for this game. You hear that browns throw the Ball throw the ball bro. Don't don't don't run it with dusty ass chub. Look. I love chub I'm glad that he made it back. But come on, come on dusty, bro Oh, okay. Okay another big time matchup The dolphins texans dolphins trying to keep playoff hopes alive texans Trying to find a pulse again they've been struggling lately So they're trying to find find a way to start collecting a couple more wins to Secure their spot in the playoffs Houston is a three point favorite with a 46 and a half point over under I would I would take the over And houston on this I, I just think there's going to be a lot of points scored. This could be a shootout between CJ Stroud and Tua, especially with Nico Collins there, Joe Mixon, all those guys playing. Tyreek Hill, the whole nine, I'll list everybody. I'll list them all. David A. Chang. Jalen Waddell's playing. Jalen Waddell's playing. Johnny Smith is playing. Mike McDaniel's just on the sideline. Odell Beckham makes an appearance for a play or two every week. Yeah, and plus I think, you know, Joe Mixon needs to feel some mojo again, man. He needs to start getting some wins, man. What do you think we think about this game? Yeah, I I agree with you actually I like the over this has sneaky shootout Potential. I also like the Dolphins to pull off the upset here the Miami Dolphins for all their struggles early in the season since Tua has come back from his throwing up gang signs a whole debacle he that or not necessarily him but The Dolphins as a team have actually been first in the league, number one in EPA per drop back. They're getting the ball out super fast. The reason why the Texans are good on defense when they are successful in defense is because of that pass rush, Will Anderson and whatever the dude's name is, I can't forget his name. They're getting to the quarterback really quickly, but the thing is that the and over the past month, Tua Tagovailoa has been getting the ball out so quickly. He's averaging like 2. 1 seconds. And basically, basically, even if you're not getting blocked, you can't get to the quarterback. So. You got this, this sort of perfect matchup where the dolphins actually perfectly line up to exploit what the Texans do on defense. And that's get the ball out really quickly and have, they like to send a lot of blitzes and have a lot of guys rushing that are basically taken out of the play immediately. And so I think that. Because like you said, Nico Collins is healthy and Stroud hasn't had as good of a season this year, but you know, he's still a pretty good quarterback if they need to chase the dolphins, which I think they might actually have to do here, then they will successfully put up points themselves. I think that it probably turns into a shootout and I really like the over that's that's my favorite sort of thing to play in this game is, is the overall. Points. Another spicy matchup. Bill's Lions whoo Josh Allen Jerry golf. It's gonna be a good game in in a dome. We don't have to worry about weather So we don't have to worry about no one complaining. Hey, we can just throw the ball around we just throw the ball Let's throw it around lots of points Detroit two and a half point favorite 53 and a half point spread This is going to be like a Packers Lions game, 31 points a piece. Yeah. I don't see how Jared Goff doesn't get at least six more touchdowns. I mean, look man, two I mean, not Jared Goff, but Josh Allen, anybody, all of them both. This is two really good offenses, like you said, in a dome. The Lions defense is just decimated. Okay. They were playing great early in the season and honestly, they're still playing kind of okay. Pretty decently considering that these are guys, a lot of them are guys. They just brought onto the team from other teams, practice squads. This is a gettable defense, you know, the Rams. And Matt Stafford just absolutely blew up the, the Buffalo's defense that had been playing good all season. I don't see why, why the Lions can't do the same. I think that that 51 points is just too low. I'm surprised that they set it at 51. I just. I feel like, yeah, right, yeah, right. You know that this is going to be like a, a 31, 37 sort of game here, man. This is, I love, love, love the over even more so than the Miami game. Love the over here. And yeah, that, that, that's, that's about it. I did see some of the sort of individual player props for this game. Nothing really stood out to me that I thought was exploitable, but that, that's basically how I feel about this game. Oh, you're muted. It's a travesty that this game is on at the same time Steelers eagles. Oh, damn another good another Another good one eagles are at home five point favorite with a 42 and a half point spread Man, I don't know what to think about this game, man I this I I cannot wait. Let's just say real quick. I cannot wait to watch hard knocks Just to watch Mike Tomlin talk about Saquon Barkley. Cuz the way he talks about players, he's like, man, you gotta watch out for this motherfucker, man. He put some rabbits out of his fucking hat, bro. Yeah, yeah yeah, it This is a really weird game because this is the sort of game that could either like It could fire up and we have seen the Steelers when they really need to, they could put points on the board, but they don't love to. And you see that the Panthers Eagles game was a really low scoring affair. I feel like, I feel like this could easily turn into like a 13, 17 kind of game and which case you unders for like everything. But I know that, you know, These offenses aren't necessarily bad either. So it's, it's kind of like a stay away spot where I, I don't know if I feel confident betting on individual players or the game environment either. No, I don't like anything about this game. I'm just going to sit back and watch it and enjoy it. I, I'm glad that we've got several different heavyweight matchups this week though. Well, so I'm going to have that on in my three pack of games, probably four pack of games on the four o'clock set. Cause I'll also probably watch the Buccaneers Chargers game. That should be fun and interesting, but more importantly Colts versus Broncos. Also at four 25, Denver, a four point favorite total of 44 and a half points. Are we going to get big Knicks dicks? Of course, we're, we're going to get the full 3. 5 inches, baby. No, look, I, I think that this is a big game for us because obviously they are one of the teams that is in the playoff, I guess, wildcard race with us. I think we're currently in that seven spot, but they're just like a game and a half back. So losing to them would, would. Be a pretty big deal for us and for them, but I'm feeling confident about this. We do run the sort of defenses that have been giving Anthony Richardson, a lot of trouble this year with a lot of these sort of basically blitz looks that. Once like post snap or actually like linebackers dropping into coverage, he has thrown a lot of picks to basically guys that he thought were going to be blitzing and turns out they're in, in coverage, still something that he's kind of struggling with also just the sort of intermediate accuracies is a continuing problem with him. So I could easily see us getting a couple of picks on him, getting a couple of turnovers, and that's basically all we need to comfortably sort of. You know play the, the, the sort of clock game, which Peyton loves to do these, these not necessarily run the ball all the time, but these little dump off screen passes, yada, yada. So I like our chances in this game. I actually, yeah, I like the Broncos picking the Broncos to cover. I've got money on my own boys, which feels great. Don't I don't always get to do that. There you go. Well, That's all the games I wanted to talk about for the weekend, but looking at the playoffs what we're looking at as far as the games this weekend For the AFC Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Houston are your top four, but next up is Baltimore Chargers, Denver's, Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals still in the hunt Here's the thing is Houston, Baltimore chargers in the Broncos are all eight and five, right? So you could, you could, with a win, you could move up a couple of spots. Yeah. Yeah. So really nice, really nice. And then on the NFC side, lions, Eagles, Seahawks, Tampa Bay, your top four. That's a travesty. Seahawks 8 5, Tampa Bay 7 6, and then you get to Minnesota 11 2 is your 5th seed. Packers 6, Commanders 7, Rams 8, Falcons, Cardinals, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, Panthers, all still in the hunt. So only one team from the NFC is out of it officially, and that is the Giants as of right now. What's funny is like on Tankathon, if you go to the Tankathon website, they're actually like pretty heavy favorites to get the first overall pick too. It's like, damn, these giants are, It's between them and it's between them and the Raiders. Yeah. Yeah. I think they're both at two and 11. I think technically the Raiders actually have the tiebreaker on them right now, but the Raiders have an easier schedule. The giants are, are predicted to be like heavy Underdogs and every single game that they play from here out So their best chance to get another win was actually against the Saints this past week, which they could not do so if you're a Giants fan They have the Ravens Falcons Colts and Eagles left If you're a Giants fan, would you rather them get Cam Ward or get Shadir Sanders? That's the question you're asking yourself right now if you're a Giants fan. Well, I don't think Shadir is going there. So if I'm a Giants fan, go ahead and just take Cam Ward. Oh, yeah, that's right. Prime is basically like, oh, there's only certain teams he's gonna play for, right? Yeah. Oh, no, he already said that he wants to go to the Raiders. Shadur and Shiloh want the, yeah, the Raiders to draft him. The Raiders got the Falcons, Jaguars, Saints, and Chargers left. Yeah. Well, Prime did play for the Raiders at one point, didn't he? Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I mean, with Antonio Pierce, man, that could be a interesting duo. Interesting. He probably, he probably wants the Raiders, so he could be like, yo, let me be, let me be the head coach and let my son be the quarterback. Absolutely. All right, well. You got any other prop bets that you wanted to pop up or anything else? I think we hit a lot of yeah, actually there was just a couple more just they involved games we didn't mention but the Bryce young pop Excuse me the Bryce young passing yards prop 116 that order excuse me 196 that doesn't make any sense ever since he's come back from being benched. He averages more than this He's playing against the Cowboys this coming week. The Cowboys defense also on average gives up more than that. So that number is just too low. I like the over for Bryce Young. Ricky Pearsall. I like the under on 16 receiving yards. Unfortunately. He's just not really getting out there on the field much. And then when he is, he's not earning targets for whatever reason. It is the Jawan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle show. So as much as I like Ricky Pierce are coming out of college. I got, I got to smash the under on that. And then one last one is Brian Thomas going up against the jets. The jets defense has not been nearly as good as they were supposed to be giving up plenty of big plays. Brian Thomas over the past month has gotten over 63. It's I think right now it's at 63 and a half receiving yards. I love the over, they are feeding him the ball early and often. I know it's Mack Jones, but it doesn't matter. He's, he's getting well over this number every week. So I don't expect that that's going to stop anytime soon. Brian Thomas rocket. To the moon, smash the over. It's not going to be like your Josh Jacobs receptions pick, right? Where he got zero. He got zero receptions. Wait, did I say we need to hit the over? You know what's funny? You know what's funny is I, yeah, you said he's going to get like four or five. Fuck. And you know what's, but what's interesting is when I was putting that in, I was this close to going He hasn't gotten a lot of passes this season I think this is gonna go under and I should have hit the under cuz if I did I Would have won the other two were over Well, you win some you lose some I stand behind my reporting it is that's all right, that's all right and That's all the scoops we got for you this week As always you can check out any of those sites that any of those pics that we we recommend You On our sites at the signupexpert. com backslash pine pony. Just sign up as a new user and put in some cash, get the free promo money and place the bets and win. It's that simple. It's good, clean fun. And that's it. Just some good, clean adult fun. Giggity. Yeah. All right. Talk to you later. Pop this out.