Strategic Foresight with Peter Scoblic | Tao of Chao 14

Welcome to Tao of Chao, where we explore some of the most important topics in finance and economics. Join Philip Chao as he welcomes Peter Scoblic to explore the fascinating world of strategic foresight. Peter is the co-founder, and principal of Event Horizon Strategies. Peter is also a professor at Georgetown University and Harvard’s Development Program, and he is currently writing a book about the history of decision making under uncertainty. In this episode, Peter dives into how to formulate strategies under uncertainty and predict and prepare for global macrotrends that will drive change for the next 30 years. Don't miss out — gain an advantage in your investment strategy!

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Philip Chao
Website: https://philipchao.us
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DISCLOSURE: Views expressed in the Tao of Chao podcasts are individual opinions and they do not represent the employers of each guest or the firm with which each guest is associated. Our podcasts are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be deemed or viewed as investment advice or recommendations. Please consult your personal financial advisor, investment expert, or investment fiduciary before taking any actions about your plan and investments.

Chapters

• 0:00 Show Open
• 0:42 Introducing Peter Scoblic
• 2:18 Defining Strategic Foresight
• 4:31 Using imagination in strategic foresight
• 4:53 Failure of imagination in preventing 9/11
• 5:56 Q: How can we formulate strategy in the face of uncertainty
• 9:55 Defining VUCA: Volitiliy Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity
• 10:52 How rather than "What" to think about the future
• 12:20 Imagining Nuclear War
• 13:47 Difference between Foresight and Forecast
• 15:43 Resisting Probabilities
• 18:05 The downside of mental models
• 19:41 Uncertainty and Risk
• 24:13 Hiring the right people to imagine futures
• 26:52 The importance of a facilitator
• 28:17 Guardrails and constraints when imagining futures
• 29:02 Using the deductive 2x2 Matrix
• 32:42 Real world example: imagining pandemic outcomes
• 35:30 Story: Strategic Foresight at the Coast Guard
• 40:51 Decision making and biases
• 44:09 Berkshire Hathaway's use of short sellers
• 45:46 Wrapping up
• 46:10 Show close and disclaimer