The BUFFS Show

April 2026 Real Estate Market Update

Paden Anderson Season 1 Episode 179

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0:00 | 58:49

Our agents break down the March 2026 Utah real estate market update and what the latest data means as we head deeper into the spring market. With new numbers just released, we take a closer look at how inventory, pricing, and buyer activity are shifting across Utah.

SPEAKER_02

Welcome to the Buff Show, a show brought to you by Mountain Buff Real Estate. We are dedicated to chasing down the buffs of the world and bringing their expertise right to you.

SPEAKER_01

Fox News Alert, President Trump says the U.S. is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan's request. As he waits for a quote, unified proposal from the regime. Now that news just breaking in the last few minutes.

SPEAKER_00

They feel like they've, you know, that they're wealthy people. And I want them to understand that, you know, there's so much talk about, oh, we're going to drive housing prices down. I don't want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes.

SPEAKER_05

And I'll go back to the same thing I told my daughter. If you can live in Box Elder Tremont, like that, that county in general, you can get a home. Your money goes a lot farther up there. You just the logistics just have to work for you.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

So looking at Box Elder. And I think eventually Box Elder is going to pop just like everything else. Well, for sure.

SPEAKER_02

We're expanding up that way. Yeah. And you can get a great house up there for like half the price. Um, like my parents, they went up to southern Idaho, and and what they could get in Morgan versus Southern Idaho, it was like 10x. It's crazy.

SPEAKER_05

So keep that in mind, youngs.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Not that we're not youngs, but youngers. Yeah. Like if you can do it, it's an opportunity.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. It's it's a great opportunity, I think. All right, guys. Welcome to the Buff Show. Today we have a market update coming your way. Um, we're covering numbers for March 2026. Looking back at March of 2025, and my watch is about dead. Today is April 14th. Tax tax day. Tax day. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

We got one more day. I got to get mine mailed up.

SPEAKER_02

I got some extensions to file. Oh man.

SPEAKER_06

I'm all done.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. That's good.

SPEAKER_06

Said it.

SPEAKER_02

Well, Ben, bet tell them tell them about your story yesterday.

SPEAKER_05

Oh, so I apparently didn't get my 2023 return. I got a return in 23, and because there was a potential fraud or someone thought it wasn't me, so they're checking. Well, this year I tried to file my taxes and they said you can't, because there's this new ID pin thing they send you that to e-file, you have to have this pin. So I'm like, okay, I'll just hurry and get the pin. You can do it online. You can't call them because they'll send it to you in 21 days. Like mind you, I waited. This was yesterday, so the 13th. And they're like, oh yeah, you just got to do all this stuff. And I get right down to the end of it, and I've got to scan in my driver's license and facial match it to my face. I freaking lost my wallet the day before.

SPEAKER_06

Oh no.

SPEAKER_05

And I lost my driver's license, and they wouldn't do my paper one, and my passport wouldn't work because the hologram thing on it. And well, didn't you say your passport was too new to the case? Yeah, well, that was the thing. I was like, I promise I'm not trying to fraud the government. I've got to, I'm trying to give you money. Yeah. And they're like, well, then they asked like my mother's new name, and I we're estranged, so I don't know her new last name. And they're like, oh. Yeah. And then they're like, you can use your passport. I'm like, okay. Well, it's new like two months ago because I went on a cruise and had to renew it. And they're like, oh, brand new passport too, huh? No driver's license. You don't know your driver's license number. So I'm like, I promise I'm not trying to fraud you by giving you money. You don't have a picture of your driver's license? I found one in my phone after the fact. Yeah. But even then, I still had to have the picture. So but you can always mail them in without the pin. So I had to print them all off. Meanwhile, I've had to wet sign them all just like back in the old days. Instead of leave it there in time? You just have to have them postmarked by postmarked before the 15th.

SPEAKER_02

You're going to be aware before the fifteenth. What if it doesn't get to them? Doesn't matter. As long as they're postmarked. What if they just don't get it though? It gets lost in the mail.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Ask for more money.

SPEAKER_05

They actually the I actually had two cashier's checks cut, one to the state and federal, right? And then I was like, had that same thought. I'm like, if these get lost, these cashier checks are in trouble. Oh, yeah. Because nobody writes checks anymore. So I had to actually get a page of checks and write checks on the case. Oh, I do checks all the time. You do? Yeah. Yeah, but you're old. Yeah. I had to have my wife write the address on them. Like, I need you to write the at least the go address so they can read it. You don't do checks. No. Huh. Do you do checks?

SPEAKER_06

Do you every once in a while, but not often.

SPEAKER_05

The only checks I write are to pay taxes or fees to the government. And that just because you never trust that'll get to the right place.

SPEAKER_02

No, I I do checks a couple times a month, I feel like.

SPEAKER_06

Only for what? Only if the credit card fee is outrageous. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Are you are you paying the freaking your mortgages with checks? No. My mom does that though. Do you balance the checkbook? Do you have the little balance? Remember the little balance books? Do you have those? Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

My mom still does that.

SPEAKER_05

She still balanced Does she know you have an app that you spike?

SPEAKER_02

I've tried to tell her and she still likes to balance them. Mails out her checks all the time. See. I'm like, mom, there is like an auto way easier. Yeah. Yeah. I've had clients, like we had this house under contract, and they were like, the utility bills are like this much here. How how much are they at your house? And I'm like, I don't know. Like it just comes out. It's just their auto pay.

SPEAKER_06

I'd have to look it up.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Are you guys responsible enough to have like the overdraft thing on your checking accounts?

SPEAKER_02

Um I I have set that up because sometimes I don't check it. And I have different accounts and I have had it go over and I'm like, oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_05

See, I just have mine set up that if there's no money in there, it just stops. It just stops and then you fined? No, you don't get fined. It'll just it'll it'll hit and say, hey, this tried to come out, and then I'll go, oh, okay, I'll move some money over and let that come out. Oh, so it moves money over. No, I'll move over. Oh, you have to do it.

SPEAKER_02

Because I look at it every day. Every day? You don't watch your money every day? No. Oh yeah. I'm like, I'm probably saying way too much on you. Peyton has so much money that he just like, ah. No, I just I just don't look at it. Once a year, he'll check his pay.

SPEAKER_05

I look probably a couple times a month. The the hard part is here, you know, everyone does their bills different, right? And yeah, me and my wife have together money, but I all the mortgages and stuff like that just are auto pay. I I yeah, I know I'm gonna have enough for those because Yeah, you know, roughly I need X bill on this account. All the little stuff, at a certain point in our marriage, I looked at her and said, I can no longer do this because I like to keep everything up here. And we have 37 utility bills at four different properties, and it's like an internet and 13 Hulus and 14, you know. I'm like, you do all that and just tell me how much if you need money or whatnot, or you just pay all this stuff. And then you pay the other stuff. Yep. So like if if my wife died today, I couldn't tell you what our car insurance is, where it goes, utilities, internet, like none of it. No clue. It's good you guys have good roles though.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it makes a lot well, maybe not for her, but my my life's easy. Yep. Carly, me and Carly are different. I I do all the financial stuff.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, see that's fun. See, I'll I'll whine and complain and tell her she does it wrong, but I won't actually take it over. Yeah, good thing. Yeah, I don't want to do that.

SPEAKER_06

Like you're doing it wrong, but I'm still okay with it.

SPEAKER_05

I'm like, why do we have no money? And she's like, well, because we have bills.

unknown

Stupid.

SPEAKER_02

So make sure you get your taxes paid uh by tomorrow. Um, or file an extension. Well, let's jump into uh these stats because this is kind of crazy. And uh I don't know. I I overall this year, I feel like it's been a letdown. Would you agree? I I I I feel impending doom coming. Impending doom? Impending doom. I don't know. Ben's Ben's uh a little bit more gloom and doom.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Not not normally either. I'm usually uh optimistic. No. Tell tell everybody what you were talking to me about at the beginning of the year. What's that thing that can be?

SPEAKER_05

The banner schedule. Yeah, yeah. It's like a farmer farmer's almanac for investing. And stock market and recessions and yeah.

SPEAKER_02

And when's the next one due? Is like right now.

SPEAKER_05

We're we're in we're at the top of the slide and we just pushed off. So, and it's like three to five year cycles.

SPEAKER_02

So see, and I I don't know if I'm that that doom and gloom. But the the beginning of this year, like I remember like January coming into it. It was a mild winter. I was hearing people doing open houses, big groups going through it. It was like right after we passed the holidays, it seems like it was ramping up. And then we saw interest rates just start dropping like crazy, even down to where we got into the fives. And I'm currently working on a refinance and I'm at 5.65, and rates have bounced up a percent or higher since then, which is crazy within like the past month. And it's all because of this freaking war that's going on right now.

SPEAKER_05

And so I talk to a lot of people, and there's just and do you know what the most depressing part about this whole war thing is? What is there's just not a news media or there's so much misinformation out there. I'm like, I wish I could just follow it right, wrong, or indifferent, and at least try to know. But you can be doom scrolling and see one news article and then the next one down, and they both look legit and real and they tell two completely different stories. So it's like For all we know, there's not even a war going on. Like it's just it's crazy how much media influences.

SPEAKER_02

Well, it's hard now because you don't know what's real anymore with AI. And AI is another huge thing where it's just disrupting things um left and right.

SPEAKER_05

Oh, and there's some good ones, and then there's some you're looking at them going, like, it's did they really expect people to believe that? Like a guy's arm disappears or something, you know?

SPEAKER_02

And yeah. But there's weird stuff going on. So but that when I when we talk about the market, it's like I I everything was lining up for a really busy, great spring. And overall, I mean, there's not a whole lot to complain about because I would just say as we go through these numbers, it's just overall kind of flat. Um we are seeing like homes sit longer and things like that, but it just hasn't been like the spring market that I think we all were hoping for. Right. Um, especially with this winter. I was I I thought with this winter being mild that we would just see a big um like a kind of a spike in like influx. Yeah, an influx.

SPEAKER_05

I and we saw it in our first spring in January, right? When it was warmer than it was in March. Yeah. And I think that's kind of what the letdown is is we had a a baby rush and like the potential built, and a few things popped, and then all of a sudden it just went flattened again.

SPEAKER_02

I agree with that. So we're gonna kind of cover these numbers. Um wait, you want to start on some new listings and we're just gonna look back at last year to this year and just see what changes are. We'll run through it real quick, and then I want to hit some individual counties because it's crazy, even just looking at the individual counties, and then we'll kind of wrap this up.

SPEAKER_06

So yeah, so like new listings from March last year, we're at 6,074. This year we're up 0.8%, 6,120. Um year to date, I guess we're at 2.9% comparatively from last year to this year.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, pretty flat overall. Yeah.

SPEAKER_06

Not I have I think the whole thing, everything feels pretty flat all around in this whole market overview.

SPEAKER_02

You know what's interesting is if you look at these spikes on the historical new listings by month, we're like we don't have that many more listings to gain. Um maybe 500 to a thousand, I would say, in April, May, and June. And then June is kind of the peak for new listings. And then it just goes down from there. From there, yep. So if you look at these, we got you know two more, two, maybe three more months of increase. And I think we would expect, I mean, last year we we capped out about what, 6,500 maybe. Um, and we're already at 6,100. So if we anticipate being about the same, which I would guess we probably will be, maybe a little bit more. I don't think we'll be over 7,000. Um like we're if you're a buyer out there looking for new listings, the rush is you're in the the gold rush right now as far as new inventory goes.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, inventory is definitely and new listings are hard because there's the the data hasn't been accumulated on a new listing yet. Right. And I think when you jump into now pending sales for from last year to this year, we are down nine point seven percent. We had 41,129 last year, and we're down to thirty thousand seven hundred and twenty-nine this year. And that's pending sales, so under contract but haven't closed, which that's a big jump. This was in March. Why do you think that is? Uh I I think honestly it's the war. Yeah. Um just and it's the uncertainty. Not necessarily because of the war and there's an ending inside. It's just I think it's more the uncertainty of everything, right? Yeah. Because wars can also cause booming markets. It's just I think right now it it's just everything is just uncertain.

SPEAKER_02

Aaron Powell Well, nobody knows like, is this a fast war, a long war? Is this a big war, a small war? Like is there yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_05

I Are we gonna make money? Are we gonna lose money? Right. But what happens, right? And like I said, totally unknown. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_06

So cost of living, like gas prices went up with the war as well. So like trying to justify and like budget in mortgage payments and everything else, that's all, like you said, just so up in the air. You just it's neither here nor there, right? We you're not quite sure.

SPEAKER_02

Yep. So we're gonna have Ben explain this one. So pending sales went down 10%, and then closed sales. So this is a count of the actual sales closing at the end of a given month in March of this year, we were 3,700. In March of last year, we were 3,500. So we have an increase of closed sales in March, 7%.

SPEAKER_05

Aaron Powell So and and which everyone thinks kind of wonky is we're giving you these numbers. We talked about how March pending sales are down, but in February, our pending sales were way up. We were 13% up. We were more up than we've gone down. Yeah. And that's actually been the first in the last 12 months that we've gone down in pending sales.

SPEAKER_02

Do you want to know why? This is why I believe. Um in March of 2025, the 30-year rate for a mortgage was like 6.6 to 6.7. In February of 2026, which is when all these close sales would have been happening in March, the interest rate was 5.87. Yep.

SPEAKER_05

Uh we had that that that baby dip.

SPEAKER_02

Baby dip. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Think about that. That's a huge dip, really. That's huge.

SPEAKER_02

You know, yeah. Massive dip. Um yeah, it if if you are if you have a loan locked in and you can refinance and save roughly 1%, it it typically on interest, it's worth it to refinance. So there was a lot of refinances going on, um, a lot more purchases, and that's what we saw. When we were looking at this, we're like, what in the heck?

SPEAKER_05

I I think the ability to get out of those prime interest rates was what happened. Yeah. It was still worse, but it was manageable. Or people just went, look, we have to get out, and this is our prime time.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

So well, wait, let's jump into days on market until a sell. And th this is confusing. They should say they should make this be days on market until a contract. Because sell doesn't quite make sense. These are days on market until an offer is accepted. Right.

SPEAKER_06

So yeah. So in 2025, 64 days on market until the sale, and then this year, 72. So we're up 12.5% and you know, that's that's a pretty good jump. An extra week, you know.

SPEAKER_02

That's a huge jump. If we if we like line this up going back, that kind of puts us in 2014-15 territory as far as days on market. Um, a 12% jump is a lot. So if you're a seller looking at selling on average, and and we'll we'll go over some of the local, like the more the counties and kind of give you a brief rundown of those in northern Utah, because it varies a lot depending on where you're at. But 72 days on market, an average contract's what, 30 to 40, 10. 30 to 45 days.

SPEAKER_05

And they're and I think that's 30 days is a very quick clean. Yeah. We used to call it average, but I think 30 is a quick clean. Yeah. Anymore it's 45 to sometimes 60, a lot of times 60.

SPEAKER_02

So yeah. So you're looking at 100 to 120 days on market. So you're what, four months? You're four months from the time you list if you're actually selling to closing on your house and getting your money. So somebody let's just say by the time they're watching this, it's May. You got May, June, July, August. If you list it in May, which most people, it takes some time to get ready in like a couple weeks to a month to just get ready to sell. If you list in May, you're looking at closing roughly in August. Right. On average. Again, some of it might be faster, slower. It just depends on where you're at. And one other thing, and I I say this a lot, like it's scary, things are taking longer to sell, but I would say it's pretty healthy, healthy in average. We are higher than we've been like over the past 10 years. Like, we're kind of we have been a little bit higher, but that was in like January. We were pushing 80 days on market. Um, and that's really been about the max that we've been in for the past 10 years. Is that's about the highest. It is about 80 days on market. If you go back into 2008 to 2012, um, it was not uncommon to be 100 to 140 days on market. So we're still below that, but we're kind of creeping up there on those days on market. I would say we're kind of we're still short enough that sellers aren't overly motivated. They're not like slashing their prices like crazy. We are seeing some price drops, but I feel like we're on the cusp where if we did push 90 to 100 days on market, we'd see a lot more price drops and things starting to happen. Because then it's like, how long do I have to sit on this house? Like half a year, six months? Like that's a long time. See, and that's where I think I'm gonna disagree with you there. Okay.

SPEAKER_05

We are sitting longer on market, but I I look back and I get a look at this at the data all the time, right? And I gotta daydream about it and stuff. But a lot of us in our age, you know, early or mid-20s to mid-40s, we've seen we've seen nothing but quick, right? Nothing but, hey, you want to sell a house? Every time I've either bought or sold the house, it's been woke up that day and went, I'm gonna sell a house, right?

SPEAKER_02

And it sells.

SPEAKER_05

And it's and it sells, and you can get into something else, you know, whether it's good or bad or indifferent. But before that, it's always been 80 to 120 days, right? And people just, oh, we sell a house. It's this year we're going to sell a house. It's not, I'm gonna sell a house this month and get in another house next month.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

What we're used to. And so I think what's happening is not people are gonna get desperate and start slashing their prices. I think people are just gonna go, okay, it takes a year to sell my house. It takes if for me to make a life-changing move like this, we're used to doing it in two months and being like, oh man, that was tough. I think the new reality is it's six six months to a year to sell a house, get into a new one. That process is just what it is. And I don't think prices I think some reality is gonna come back to some people, but prices aren't gonna change. Because people aren't in dire straits, right? Their wants, I think, is what's motivating things. Their income and their rates, they're just stuck in the house. They're not upside down backwards. Oh, yeah. Yeah. So they're not upside down. So I and I and we're gonna get into that. You're gonna see prices. It's not like prices have changed. So they can't you can't sell a house for less and go buy a house for more, right? Right. So I just think we're just gonna be stagnant for a few years, which will come down a little bit, but I don't think we're gonna be slashing and well, I I don't mean massive prices.

SPEAKER_02

Oh, now we're changing our story? I I guess slashing. Slashing, like a new tire salesman. I mean I I I have my personal house listed. Yeah. And I have had the slash. I mean, what what's the definition of slash?

SPEAKER_05

Uh as far as slashing, or you start seeing prices getting crazy, is people are now starting to take losses on their homes, losing money or having to pay to get out of them.

SPEAKER_02

Well, I when I look at it, so my house, for example, I I if I would have listed it in 22 or 23, I could have sold it for a hundred grand more than where I'm listed right now. Right. And so, and uh who knows where it sells at now. But like I'm I'm consistently lowering the price, trying to catch where the market, like where people are jumping on it at. And then I have a few other listings, same thing where it's like we have done five plus open houses. We've had people through, we've had broker tours, we've run Facebook ads, like it's all out there, it's looking really good. It's either just let more time happen and and let it sit longer, or let's start adjusting the price. You know, and that's where it did it comes down to their motivation. But some of them, like we we it's not uncommon for sellers to be like, hey, I'd like to get this sold. I don't know what this war is doing, where in interest rates are gonna be. And so we do get more aggressive on their pricing. And it and it depends on the area. I've been surprised, like Davis County is actually pretty hot right now. Um Morgan County's doing decent.

SPEAKER_05

Um yeah, no. See, it I I see Morgan's slow it's slowing way down. Yeah. It way down. Um not necessarily because I think it's bad. I just it's unaffordable. Yeah. Right? So our buyer pool's way smaller.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

It used to be 90% of our buyers, and you know this because you grew up in Morgan, was kids coming back to Morgan. Right. Right? They went out to the world, made themselves, want to come back, raise their families. Well, now they're wanting to come back, they've got good jobs and make good money, but then they go, man, I can buy a house in the from the 1960s, but I'm over 600 grand. Right. You know? Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Minimum. Yeah. So Yeah, Morgan's Morgan's gotten expensive. Let's jump in. Well, we're going to continue hashing out the the local counties and stuff like that. Um let's jump into median sales price. Is that you?

SPEAKER_05

I think that might be me. So median sales price. So you take all the prices that sold in the state of Utah and you start whopping them off front and back until you get to the middle. In March of 2025, the medium house price was$500,000, and in March of 26,$518,000. So we had a little bit of a gain. Overall, fairly flat. So a 3% gain, which is not nothing, but it's not outrageous. Um if you think inflation and stuff like that, that's a 3% inflation rate on the median house price.

SPEAKER_02

If you were to draw a line from like 2023 to 2026, the past three years have been like we've had higher and lowers, but I'd say the average is like right about 500,000. Like it's just been a flat, flat plateau. And the peak was like 2022 when the the average was like 540-ish. Um so we're not too far off of that peak number. And the reason why I think that peak number was so much higher then is because the amount of closings that we're selling at that point was like double what we're selling right now. And money was money, money was money was so cheap. So and so I think our average, our median price might actually be like competitive to where we were at in 2022. Um yeah, like right now we're closing 3,700. Um in 2020, 2021, at the peak of like the most sales closed in a month, we were almost 7,000 homes. Right. So if you take that and you do your median, of course, when you have more of those data points, I think you would have that could bump that up. Maybe.

SPEAKER_05

I I I think it just comes right down to we're we're right close. I mean, there's not enough at you're thinking half a million dollars and we're within 20 grand.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Right. Like we're within 3% of being the highest we've ever been. So we we've we've corrected since 2020, and now I think we've climbed back up on a healthy trajectory, and I think we're gonna have just those micro and macro dips and rises.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. So we have average sales price. Um, in March of 2025, we were 685. We've gone up 0.7% to 690,000 for the entire state. Again, the average shows us that we are higher than 2022 was the peak. Um, but it's just if you were to kind of level those all out, I think it'd be pretty flat and right around like 650-ish. It's been uh the steady climb on that. Right.

SPEAKER_05

And and the way the average sales price is calculated is all of them in a bunch divided by the number of homes sold. Which what this tells me is we just have a few more higher priced homes selling than normal. For sure. Obviously, because usually your higher price homes aren't affected as much by market catalysts like your interest rates and stuff like that.

SPEAKER_02

Well, and now I think sounded smart, didn't it? Yeah. These higher price homes are looking so much more affordable because you have people looking at building these luxury homes, and the cost to build is so much more than just buying something existing and like running with it and remodeling it or whatever. And so it a lot more people, they're like, well, I could buy a used home for this, a million, or I could go build this same house for 1.5. I'm just gonna buy the used one, you know? And it gets like it gets us like 80, 90 percent of what we wanted without spending the extra dollars. Yeah. And the headache of it too. And the time, yeah. And the risk. So Yeah.

SPEAKER_06

And you know, we're looking here at the percent of original list price received now, and actually it is even. It's 96.9 percent. So from 2025 to 2026, no change.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, that's crazy.

SPEAKER_06

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Which in it and it stayed over the last year pretty even. I mean, we've in January of this year we dropped 1%, was the biggest drop we've ever had. But really, we've been less than a percent difference year over year.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, if you were to draw a draw a line, you're probably about 96% on average. That does not account for seller-paid concessions. So really you're probably uh at least a solid percent lower than that. If you were to factor in buyers asking for sellers to pay for their closing costs or rate buy downs and stuff like that. Right. Um so you're about 95 percent.

SPEAKER_05

Aaron Powell So when you say that, you you're saying that buyers are getting there's a lot more ask on the concessions than you've seen over the past years. Or it's almost becoming not a standard, but they almost have to ask so they're not so much cash in.

SPEAKER_02

Yep, I agree with that. And sellers like yeah, a lot of sellers are willing to pay because it's either that or lower their price slightly. And so m most sellers are willing to cover some closing costs, depending on the deal and how much um activity there is on it.

SPEAKER_05

Aaron Powell I I think that's what it comes down to is they really ought to include the concessions into this as much as they can because it's the same thing as a price. It's just how do you want your discount, right? Yeah. Do you want to do you want us just to pay your fees, which we can work into the loan, or do you want to come up with more cash and get a better price on the house?

SPEAKER_02

Aaron Powell It'd be interesting if they had a chart on the concessions to see what the average is.

SPEAKER_05

I think it's so hard to track concessions on on how I mean you you see some concessions like your basic seller paid closings, but there's a lot of other concessions that also get involved in a house that you really can't track either. Yeah, that's true. Is it me? It's you. Housing affordability index. Okay, we're gonna uh I hate and love this one. So this one takes the median household income and compares it to the median household price. And at 100, you can buy a house with the medium household income and at the median household price. Yeah. Does that make sense to everyone? Good, good, good. So as it goes down, it becomes less affordable away from 100. And as it goes above 100, it gets more affordable, meaning you can buy 103% of a medium household with the median household income. So in 2025, we're at 80, meaning we were about 20 points lower than the affordability. So meaning you'd have to make 20 per 20% or 20 points higher of the median household income in order to afford the medium household price. In March of 2026, we dropped one point one more point unaffordable. So 79 points.

SPEAKER_02

And we've been around 80 since 2022. Yeah. Very unaffordable. Been unaffordable.

SPEAKER_05

You you need to make about 120% of the median household income in order to afford the medium household.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. So when did you buy when did you start buying your rental properties? Oh, like 20 or 2018.

SPEAKER_05

I bought what, four or five of them in the span of 2018 to 2019, end of 2019.

SPEAKER_02

So back then it was like 140 to 120 in between there. It was affordable. You could it was nice, yeah. You'd you'd run numbers, you'd be like, hey, you know, I could put some renters in here and this'll cash flow a little bit.

SPEAKER_05

I can buy I can buy it, and with what rents are, I basically have no money out of pocket monthly.

SPEAKER_02

Right. Very hard to do that nowadays.

SPEAKER_05

Impossible. You know, it's all it's almost impossible.

SPEAKER_02

Well, yeah, you gotta find, I mean, it's gotta be the right deal. But yeah, investors right now are very like it it's just hard to work and and and find the deals right now. Right. And if you do find one, like it's like you better come with a sword.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. Because if you're not quick on it and fast on it, and sadly enough, it's the deals are usually because of someone's desperation.

SPEAKER_02

Right. Yeah. For sure. All right. Inventory of homes for sale. The so this is a number of properties available for sale and active status at the end of a given month. Um, we rose 2.1% to 14,282 this year. Um we've been slowly like climbing up, um, getting more and more inventory. And I think we'll see some more, some more listings coming up. Like we're just kind of heading into that busier season where there are more homes available for s we go throughout the summer. And then they sell off as we go into the fall and winter, and then that repeats the cycle over again. But we're still a ways away from like we're at 14,000. Uh if you look at 2008 to 2011, we were 30,000. 25 to 30,000. Yeah, 25 to 30,000, which is kind of crazy. So we're half.

SPEAKER_05

Which you're gonna see on your socials and different things, the nation. Um this goes back to that our Utah safe haven, right? It's such a desirable place to live still. Not that I'm biased, but Utah is not as strongly affected. But the nation right now, those numbers are way higher. Yeah. So kind of foreshadows what's coming a little bit. We just won't dip and swoop as hard as the nation does. Feel it as much. Yep.

SPEAKER_06

Yeah, so month supply of inventory right now in 2025 we were at four months and currently 3.9, so really no change as far as the month's supply of inventory, which I think goes right along with that last one.

SPEAKER_02

We've been around four months for again the past three to four years. Do you do you think we'll hit five months this year?

SPEAKER_05

We've never we haven't hit five months on the trailing twenty-four.

SPEAKER_02

No. We I mean we were getting close. We were like four seven, four six. Yeah, four eight. Um I don't know.

SPEAKER_05

What do you think? I kinda H here's where my doom and gloom is. And and I don't think month supply of inventory is going to do it because I don't think, like I said, people aren't gonna be in desperation having to get out of their houses. They're just not gonna list.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

So I bet we stay really close. I could even see inventory going down, but buyers still not buying, right? It's there's not gonna be a scarcity. It's just going to be, hey, nobody's buying because nobody can afford, nobody can get out because prices and then uh what's gonna crack first, right? Are people gonna crack their their and slash prices, or is all of a sudden the government gonna open up and rates are gonna drop again or something crazy is gonna happen?

SPEAKER_02

Let's talk about that because like Trump wants to do that, and there is a push for that. And I don't know, the war could help that or could slow that down. But let's say rates did drop into the fives or high fours. Um I I recently heard an interesting take on this. And uh it was it was Grant Cardone. I don't know if you like him or hate him. My theory has always been if if rates drop, you're gonna have all these buyers come out of the woodwork and it's just gonna make prices skyrocket, right? Because there's gonna be that much more demand. But his theory was like if if rates drop a lot significantly, it could create a recession. Not maybe not a recession, a surplus of homes available because you have all these sellers that have been like, I want to sell, but now's not the right time. And so rates drop. You have all these sellers that are like, hey, now's a good time to sell. Everybody lists their houses, and all of a sudden there's way more double the homes for sell or whatever, because now they feel like it's a good time to move. What's your thoughts on that? I that happening, I can see 100%.

SPEAKER_05

I will agree with Grant Card Cardone, even though I don't agree with everything he says. But I don't see it, I don't see it necessarily being a recession. What I see is it it well, yes, lowering prices on homes. But when you lower prices on homes, look, I can t afford to take, like on, for example, yours, you can afford to take that hundred thousand dollar hit.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

And for guys that are getting out or selling off investments, that's gonna hurt investors, right? But people who are trying to transition and move and just have the good, healthy churn of the economy, it's not gonna affect them because okay, if I sell my home for$100,000 less and I can get into a home for$100,000 less, we're still a neutral churn. But but the money is moving, right? The economy strengthens again.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. So Yeah, that's the thing that I think people don't realize is you've had such a a spike in home values in Utah and really like across a lot of the the US, but there's a lot of equity out there. There's a lot of people with cheap mortgage payments, cheap entry, like the their basis into these properties is not a lot. And so they do have that flexibility to sell it for less and move stuff around. And yeah, they might have lost some equity, but then they're getting into something else at a cheaper price. So it might be worth it to them.

SPEAKER_05

And and that, and that's the hard part, right? It it's everyone's like, oh man, uh like you, I if I would have sold in 2020, yeah, but I don't think you don't lose or gain equity, right, until you sell. So if you would have sold in 2020, you would have made more equity, but then you would have lost your equity going into a higher priced home in 2020. So really the only way Except I did buy a house too. Yeah, but you did do that, yes. So you double whammy. But kind of like at the investor standpoint, right? It hurts the investor that it's not going, you know, he's not trading. And and this is the key, right? You've got to sell high buy low. So if you sold in 2020, put your money somewhere else, you know, just a slower six percent yield fund or something. And then you buy in the next couple years, that's where that's where those investors are being smart, they're being patient. Um, and I think that's how it's been in the past. But these last five years, like you said, we had such a spike that didn't matter. You buy, you make money, you buy, you make money.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Now I think it's you're gonna have to be a little bit smarter with your investing now and timing and everything.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

It's just not a guaranteed. If you have money, you can make money anymore.

SPEAKER_02

Right. Yeah, you gotta play it safer. Right. Yeah. Let's uh jump into some of these local areas. Um I have, and I just printed these off. Ogden Valley Q1 stats. So average home sold in Ogden Valley in Q1 of 2025 was 1.229 million, 26 cells average average home sold price in Q2 20 or in Q1 2026 was 1.3520 cells. So there was like a hundred thousand, a hundred plus thousand dollar increase from Q1 to 2025 to Q1 up 2026. Um, townhomes kind of set saw the same increase. Um, our days of market went from 80 to 84 in the valley. So um we do have more listings available right now. It is kind of stagnant up there, I would say, right now, uh, with listings. It's just I I'm seeing a lot of buyers like come through listings multiple times and just like not making any decisions. Keep waiting. Yeah. And I'm like, oh my gosh, like it's just like there's no urgency in the market right now. Right. They feel like they have all the time in the world. Uh and 100% agree with that.

SPEAKER_05

Um, Morgan kind of has kind of done the same thing. We've jumped on median and sales, and they're actually fairly comparable. So I think our higher ends and our medians are all have all gone up a little bit. But this is this is kind of crazy for Morgan. And and really we've stayed in the first quarter, mind you, even on the new listings, 50 to 51, pending sales 34 to 38, closed sales 35 to 34. But what I've seen in in March and this first part of April, a influx of listings. And I believe we have more than I think we have like 52 listings on market right now, not counting land. So I I Morgan's Morgan's gonna take competing, or I'm curious to see what's gonna happen with all the inventory if people are gonna start buying, or we're just gonna sit. Right. So, and just slowly bleed them off throughout the year.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it's weird.

SPEAKER_05

And our day well, one last thing, in our days of market jumped 25%. Right. So stuff sitting. Yeah. So up to 68 days of market.

SPEAKER_02

70 days. 70 days a day. From Q1. Yeah. Yeah, that's crazy. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see Morgan. Prices have looked good. I mean, there there definitely is some higher-end homes selling, I think pushing some of these prices up.

SPEAKER_05

You know what we're seeing too in Morgan? We're having some higher-end townhomes, a little more high densities that are doing a kind of a higher end feel, much like Ogden Valley and Park City and stuff. Um I'm curious to see how those go as they've been they've been selling, but they've also, as they sell, every time one sells, it's almost like they increased their price.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. So you're six to seven hundred thousand on some of those newer, nicer ones.

SPEAKER_05

In some places they're going for a million, right? I don't know if Morgan supports that quite yet or not, but we're gonna see in the next six months, I think.

SPEAKER_02

Aaron Powell It's been a needed um like class in Morgan, because there hasn't been very many condos townhomes. I mean, there are I don't know of any condos at Morgan. Careful, that those are fighting words in Morgan, you know. You're either on one side of the fence or the you're not, you know. It's been interesting because Ogden Valley's had condos for a while, and those have done like a steady, I mean a huge increase. I remember like Wolf Lodge condos selling maybe less than 10 years ago for like a hundred grand.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

And now they're like three, four hundred thousand. Same with Moose Hollow, like they've doubled. Um I I think people like the the townhome feels. You get garages. Uh, the condos can be rough because it's more like an apartment. It's super it's like a timeshare you own. Yeah. Essentially. Super high density. You but it's nice, especially in Utah where you get snow, it's nice to have a spot where you can pull in, covered parking, all that. So that the townhomes all make sense. Here's a question on that, and a theory I've thought about.

SPEAKER_05

And I think going along with the same theory I'm about to drop. Town homes were kind of flat. They were a necessity, not a lot of people were in and out of them. And then you started the rental game started becoming hot. People are like, oh, I can get into investing, these rent good, and then Airbnb and all these short-term rentals came through and the prices just surged. And what I'm kind of seeing now is a lot of these municipalities are kind of were behind the eight ball and they didn't have regulations, codes, ordinances, and now they're fighting, not really fighting back, but they're going, hey, look, we can't it this we just we don't want to become a resort town or like and figure this out. Right. And I think that, and they're just the last couple of years starting to catch up. You see it a lot in like St. George, especially. It's very hard to get into the rental game now because they're so regulated. Good or bad, indifferent, right? And do you think that's going to affect these prices now that these regulations have caught up? I mean, I've seen I've seen even two like in Morgan County on one of them, they allowed nightlies. It's actually the only legal zoning that actually allows nightly rentals, but they threw a PID tax on it, an extra tax in order to get that. So what do you think that's gonna do to your short-term rental market? Is it gonna make the availability and the cost of these go down? Because you can't make money on them. A lot, because the dream was four to five years ago, hey, I'm gonna buy this property and I'm not gonna I'm I'm gonna use it three or four times a year for my enjoyment, but then it's gonna be an investment and all but pay for itself in rent.

SPEAKER_02

That dream is basically dead. I don't see people do that at these prices right now, um, even if you're cash, right? Like it it a lot of times it's hard. Like you'd be better off taking that cash and just investing it into some fund and then venting a unit. And renting a unit. Um, but I think it does help owners that are like, hey, we want to we want a place in Mountain Green close to basin. Um we're gonna buy one anyways. We're gonna use it, and then we'll just rent it out when we're not there. And it might make a little bit. Maybe it'll pay for the HOA dues or fees or whatever, property taxes. It'll help supplement it some. Uh those those are the people that I see doing good because their expectations aren't to make money. They're not paying off mortgages and stuff.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, it's essentially this is a want out. I have and it can afford and just mitigate this mitigates some of the cost.

SPEAKER_02

And so I think that that makes sense in that scenario where it it's able to help them on some of the costs. But yeah, it's really hard to I mean, we tried it in Bear Lake. We bought a townhome, tried to rent it out, and it was just so slow and hard, and we ended up selling it. And it it's the same in Augen Valley, it's the same in Morgan. It's just hard to make it make the numbers work if you're looking at it from a sole investment standpoint. Aaron Powell So do you think the regulations are going to push the prices down a little bit on these type of homes? No. I think they're gonna I think they'll help it because if there wasn't if they weren't regulated and the whole county could do nightly rentals, people wouldn't be staying in those complexes because they'd be staying in other areas. And it would be a thousand of them, you can go anywhere. Okay. So they're they're controlling it and it's pushing everybody to those desired areas. If it was unreg regulated and just opened, and plus those areas, like people go to a townhome complex, there's a pool, like they're designed to be rented nightly versus like if somebody was in your neighborhood and they were renting their house neck like nightly next door, you could get some noise, a lot more complaints. For Morgan County and Ogden Valley, I think we're good. It does help the people be able to buy those and supplement some of the expenses there, although it's not like anybody looking to just buy it and and make a bunch of money. You could do that like five years ago, but right now it's really so how about this synopsis?

SPEAKER_05

Not necessarily going to affect your price, but the sellability becomes a little bit harder because your market shrinks because everybody and their cat can't do it. Only the people that have that surplus to have a second home or a vacation spot are able to buy these.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, maybe.

SPEAKER_05

They're not going to move like hotcakes anymore.

SPEAKER_02

Um I mean, it still is your at least for Ogden Valley, like the median home price in average is 1.1 to 1.2. And you can buy a a condo for 400 to 500,000. I guess that's true. So it's like that's the entry point to get in there. So if you want to get in there, um that's where you start, really. And you can get your your kind of foot in the door and then expand from there. So I think it still makes sense. Morgan doesn't have, I mean, there are some town homes that are like 400,000. Um, but then over in Mountain Green, you have a bunch that are six to seven hundred thousand. But that is like you get something brand new, three to four bedrooms, um, a lot of amenities, um, with some of the closest um housing to Snow Basin. I don't and then yet we have the Olympics coming. Like I think it's positioned well. Um it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I think there is a need for it, um, for sure. It'll be interesting to see if Morgan gets some more affordable options, because right now it's just I mean, you have it in in Morgan, but it seems like people want um if Mountain Green gets any more affordable townhome style options. And I don't know if they could build it for much cheaper than that.

SPEAKER_05

That that's the hard part in Morgan. I always tell every client I talk to, buyer, seller, apart alike. In my opinion, 60% of the value is in the dirt in Morgan. Yeah. Um what makes it hard for Morgan for those$400,000 townhomes? There's a di a slightly different demographic of people going to the Ogden Valley, right? It's kind of resort town skis and stuff. Most people come into Morgan, the first thing I hear is, hey, I want minimum a half acre. Right. And I want a funny farm, and I want, you know, and I want this or I want five acres. And so that want for the townhome living is there for young families, and and that's all I can get into. Where in the valley, it a it a it appe it appeals to everybody, right? Not just that young can afford it. It's just, oh, I I can go here, go here, it's a great place to because I'm gonna be skiing, I'm only gonna be using it for this. That lifestyle fits to only have a townhome where in Morgan, everybody wants I want to be able to park a truck and a trailer and a boat and have goats and a mini horses. And so I think that's hurting our townhome market a little bit.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Um, one other note I will mention, like I had some clients looking at some townhomes like just through Weber and Davis County. And it's interesting because you look at all these complexes that were built from like 2018 to like 2022, and they were building them everywhere, flying them up, like the prices, like people were just flocking to them.

SPEAKER_05

Then the first townhome sold, the last town home sold was like a hundred and fifty thousand dollar difference in price, too.

SPEAKER_02

Like they were jumping like crazy, and now they've continued building at that pace, but there there is like a massive um surplus, I feel like, of townhomes in Weeber and Davis County, uh, to the point where people that bought townhomes a couple years ago are having a hard time getting out of them because they're building the new ones at the same price. And so, like there's much more inventory than there was back when these ones were being built. And it's like the some of these builders are able to offer buy downs and they have preferred lenders and all this stuff. So you could almost get like a brand new unit for the same price as like one that's three to four years old. And I'm seeing a lot of these older ones have to take like price drops and stuff like that to try and get out of them and move them. So that's a that's kind of an interesting. I I think there is a surplus of townhomes and condos like on the Wasatch front. The Wasatch back, there there still hasn't been like that much development. There's not that much inventory. I think you're pretty safe there. Along the Wasatch front, there's a lot more availability. I think the biggest driver of that is the dirt cost.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. You know, to go do that, you have margins still on the Wasatch back. On the front, you buy the dirt, you build the townhome, and the margins, you can't give that. A lot of these builders are given killer rate buy downs or$20,000 in whatever you want on at add-ons, and because they bought the dirt for so much cheaper or they own the dirt, and now the back is starting to develop more, but it is slower, like you said, because it's just the margins aren't there.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. If you're a buyer and you're looking for some good deals on just if if you're wanting to get into a home for that's a good, a good property, like looking at new development along the WASAT's front, you have these builders that bought this land, you know, five to ten years ago. They mass develop it. They have all these contracts with all the tradesmen, they get their material and b bulk, and they're able to build these homes for like the cost of what some existing homes are going for that are, you know, five years old, ten years old. And then they have these preferred lenders that are giving out killer rates. It's there's some good deals to be had there. If you're okay living in like more of a spec community, I I would say, you know, going back to my doom and gloom stance, right?

SPEAKER_05

Is investors, it's just it's a hard time to crunch. Yeah. Um established, trying to move, it's also hard because you're going from those specs trying to get out. But right now, I will say it, it is good for uh newtime home buyers or home buyers that are in a town home to transition to a home home because of that exact reason. And same within Morgan. You have a house that's built in the 1960s for 650,000 that has a half acre. But if you don't really need that, there's one that's 2026. It's on a quarter acre that's brand new home. So it if you're trying to get into a home, it's and you're gonna be it's not gonna be a two-year flip it and sell it. It's a I'm gonna live here five, ten years. Yeah. The prices are good.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. If you're gonna be there for a while, it's hard to say what the next couple years are gonna do. But if you're looking now at five to ten years, like you're you're s I I I have a very optimistic view for Utah and everything that's coming here. That's easy to say because it's like, ah, five years out. Yeah. We'll be fine.

SPEAKER_05

See, and and I I have an optimistic view on that one stance only. Yeah. I s I see our next two to three years, things are gonna tighten up, some more corrections, some more We've got some stuff to figure out. Reality checks, but I think as soon as that hits, it takes one catalyst to send us right back into trouble again. Like you said, rates dropping, what happens and nobody knows.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Let's hit a few like quick uh counties. We we covered Morgan. Um Weber County, uh, we went from 64 days on market to 70 in March. Um prices pretty flat. Um Davis County, we went from 65 days on market in March of 2025 down to 57, uh, down 12%. So Davis County actually saw a decrease on days on market, and both of their median and average prices went up. Uh median went up 3.8%, average went up 6.3%. So Davis County was actually like pretty hot. We had a listing there and uh did an open house. It was like jam-packed.

SPEAKER_05

Why do you suppose that is?

SPEAKER_02

It's I don't know. Davis County, there are the a lot of people love Davis County. It's central, close to Salt Lake. Um, it's just like a desired area. People like Kaysville, Leighton, Centerville, Bountiful. It's just like a very and there's not more land becoming available there, really. Right, yeah, that's true. So they're in like a very controlled, and let's say start building like further west, which they're working on it, but they can't, like there's not. Not if they keep refilling the Salt Lake. Right. Yep. But it's very developed. And so I think it's like if you want to be in that area, you're either buying existing or you're finding like one of the one-offs that's being developed, but those are few and far between. Whereas if you go up into Weber County, there's more land that hasn't been built on. Morgan has more land that hasn't been built on. Go up to Box Zelder in Cash, and it's just like there's ample land that hasn't been built on. So I think that's kind of like in the eye of maybe because Salt Lake County is the same way. I didn't print it off, but very busy market. We had a house we were selling in Eden. The buyers came to us with a contingency on a house in Salt Lake, and they're like, we need to sell this. And typically I'm like, hey, just get your house under contract, then we'll talk. We ended up working with them. We did a time clause. They had their house under contract in Salt Lake that weekend, and then we closed like three or four weeks later, like so fast. And so I think Davis, Davis and Salt Lake County are pretty, pretty busy still. Um, if we go further north though, this is where it gets interesting interesting. Box Elder County. Um median and and average sales prices in the mid-fours, just flat. Um, days on market until sell, they went from 50 days on market to 75, so a 50% increase on days on market. We had a listing in day in Box Elder County, and it's closing this week. We signed on it yesterday, and maybe I shouldn't talk about this, but I'm going to. But um we had one showing, they wrote up a cash offer, went under contract, but it was like like there just was no showings. Like we were on the market, we did open houses, nobody'd come through. I'm like, where is where is everybody?

SPEAKER_05

And and they can't and what's crazy is they're still building and developing there like crazy, some of these big builders.

SPEAKER_02

Um but you have to price it very aggressively. Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_05

I mean, they're there's town homes, much like very similar town homes. We just lost a soundboard.

SPEAKER_06

Just hit me.

SPEAKER_05

Um and when they first were going, they were they were going for about 300, and then when the development really got cranking, they were going to about 325, 330. And I was talking to the agent that sold most all of those, and he goes, Yeah, a couple of the people are in there, one short selling at like 290, one's at like one's at 299, like they're starting to dive. And I'll go back to the same thing I told my daughter. If you can live in Box Elder Tree Mount, like that, that county in general, you can get a home. Your money goes a lot farther up there. You just the logistics just have to work for you.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

So looking at Box Elder, and I think eventually Box Elder is gonna pop just like everything else. Oh, for sure.

SPEAKER_02

We're we're expanding up that way. Yeah. And you can get a great house up there for like half the price. Um, like my parents, they went up to southern Idaho, and and what they could get in Morgan versus Southern Idaho, it was like 10x. It's crazy. So keep that in mind, youngs. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Not that we're not youngs, but youngers. Yeah. Like if you can do it, it's an opportunity.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it's it's a great opportunity, I think. Um, and then lastly, Cash County, they had some increases on their median and average sales prices. They're still 450 to 500,000. Uh median went up 5.9%, average went up 9.1%. So a quite a bit of difference there. Their days on market, however, went from 79 in March of 2025 to 89 in March of 2026, so a 12% increase. So Cash County is like, I mean, they're they're longer than Box Elder. I think that's just because they have a lot more listings in inventory right now. Um it's a sticky market up there, right?

SPEAKER_05

Cash County is hard because it's even farther than Box Elder. Um you don't have that main vein to get to the like I know a lot of people that live in Tremont and work in Salt Lake or Air Force Base. And it's gonna be interesting to see, especially those two counties, um, because I think a lot of industry is pulling away from the cities a little bit, and they're going out there into, you know, the out west, you know, where like Thycol and stuff is. Um, there's talks of the nuclear plants and different things. And I think if that industry grows around there, that's going to be your the play, the 10, 15 year plays. It's gonna bring a lot of jobs out there. Yeah. And I think if that pops, the real estate pops. Well, guys, thanks for coming out. We had we had a camera over here on it, so I get to do the closing. Um, overall, save your money, go into hiding, don't invest in anything. No. And it's simple then overall, the market's still moving, it's still a fair market. It's just a little bit harder to make money, be more concise, more thoughts. So until we see you next time, love you bye.