Global Demographics: From Bad to Worse, James Pomeroy, Global Economist, HSBC

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing hosts James Pomeroy, Global Economist at HSBC. They delve into the complex world of demographics and its impact on the global economy. James shares his expertise in collating country forecasts and creating a global view, while also touching on his thematic views on the digital economy, urbanization, and demographics.

First, James discusses the basic demographic data types, like Total Fertility Rate (TFR), working age population, and dependency ratios. 

James recently published a report on the potential shock to demographic projections caused by climate change and migration. This report sheds light on the intricate relationship between these global phenomena and their potential to reshape our world.

James then covers the complex dynamics of intra- and inter-country migrations, and the implications for population growth around the world. While demographic and migration projects over decades are very difficult, it is possible that small and currently “cold climate” economies, such as Canada and Scandinavia, experience population growth substantially above current projections, while Africa, currently viewed as the largest source of global population growth, experiences a decline in population over decades-long timeframe. 

Finally, we discuss the major social challenges that come along with increased migration, from housing to integration into the workforce. 

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: James Pomeroy 

💡What they do: Global Economist

💡Company: HSBC

💡Noteworthy: Expert in global economics with a focus on demographics and climate change.

💡 Where to find them: HSBC The Macro Brief podcast: Apple Spotify

Key Insights

The Role of a Global Economist

James Pomeroy, a Global Economist at HSBC, explains his multifaceted role. His responsibilities include collating individual country forecasts from HSBC's team of economists around the world to form a coherent global view. Additionally, he develops overarching thematic views on long-term trends driving global economies. These themes span a variety of topics, including the digital economy, urbanization trends, and demographics. Pomeroy emphasizes the importance of considering these themes, particularly demographics, in today's world.

Climate Change and Migration

Pomeroy discusses his recent report titled "Climate Change and Migration: A Potential Shock to Demographic Projections". He highlights the significant challenges posed by demographics and explores the less obvious effects of climate change and migration on these trends. He emphasizes the need for proper housing and integration of displaced people into the workforce and society, as climate change is likely to cause greater global migration flows.

The Impact of Climate Change on Migration

Pomeroy brings up the concept of climate refugees and climate migrants - people forced to migrate due to climate change. He explains that over time, climate change is likely to make more economies inhospitable, causing outflows of people. He also notes that certain economies, such as the UK, Australia, and Canada, which have historically taken in a lot of inward migrants, could be significantly affected by these migration flows.