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Bringing together industry leaders, innovators and global thinkers, Future Energy Insights by the World Future Energy Summit takes an in-depth look at renewable energy and sustainability. Featuring lively debate and passionate discussion, the series covers six core topics: clean energy, water scarcity, smart cities, circular economies, waste management and climate change. It shines a spotlight on the critical issues and major gamechangers shaping the sector today.
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In Conversation with Robin Mills: The New Energy Equation
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The New Energy Equation: Security, Sustainability and Resilience
As countries race to decarbonise while meeting growing energy demand, energy security has become a strategic priority. In this episode, Robin Mills welcomes Amena Bakr for an insightful discussion on how recent global events have reinforced the need for more diversified and resilient energy systems. Together, they examine the delicate balance between security, affordability and sustainability, the importance of energy diversity across technologies and resources, and how collaboration across borders can strengthen resilience. Ahead of the World Future Energy Summit, they also share their perspectives on the trends, challenges and opportunities that will define the next chapter of the global energy transition.
Powered by World Future Energy Summit, the Future Energy Insights show seeks to address the biggest challenges shaping the future of energy today, both in the Middle East and around the world. Find us on social media at @worldfutureenergysummit and visit our website www.worldfutureenergysummit.com.
Hello and welcome to this edition of the World Future Energy Summit Podcasts. I'm Robin Mills, CEO of Common Energy, and I'm delighted to have with me today Amina Backer, who leads Middle East analysis at Kepler. So welcome, Amina. We've just been through perhaps still in the middle of a very major unprecedented world energy crisis, which has cast doubt and uncertainty on world energy security, but also taught us a lot, I think, about what's needed for a resilient global energy system. Now, you at Kepler have been at the heart of this, of tracking this crisis and helping people find their way through it. Perhaps we could start by just telling us a little bit about how what you've been doing at Kepler and how you found yourself in the middle of this crisis.
SPEAKER_01Hi, Robin. Thank you so much for having me on this podcast. And yes, that's right, we've been through very interested, unprecedented times. Uh, and being at Kepler, really, we were at the forefront of what was happening in terms of tracking um every vessel, uh flow uh coming out of this region, how this conflict has impacted uh not just the region, but the the globe. So we've been tracking uh multiple uh number of uh of trends here and not just being on Hormo's watch per se. Um and just to give you a little brief about Kepler, Kepler is a data analytics firm. Uh, but we provide something a little bit more than just ship tracking, which Kepler is very famous for, of course. Uh we have a research department uh which is growing very rapidly. Uh so we just uh give an explanation that's behind the numbers, not just the raw uh data around flows or uh ship tracking. We explain what's happening, we have a global uh supply uh balance, and we're also a secondary source to uh the OPEC countries. We assess uh production. So these are these are some of the things that I do. Um, and based out of the Middle East, as you know and said, it's been uh yeah, very busy for us.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and when we talk about tracking, of course, we're talking about flows of crucial energy products for the world. So oil and gas, I guess, most prominently, but all kinds of other energy-related commodities, metals, all kinds of things as well, which uh uh I'm sure you've been also keep keeping an eye on.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's right. I mean, it's uh it's commodities across the board. So anything that you know uh you could load onto a vessel and and ship, that's what uh Kepler tracks. So uh it's it's fertilizers, dry bulk, um, food. And uh I mean, we've realized from this crisis, um, Robin, that yes, we always say that, you know, 20 million barrels of uh of uh liquids flows through the Strait of Hermuz, but nobody was talking about fertilizers and how important that was and how developing countries really depend uh on those flows. So I think this um conflict made us realize how fragile uh the whole system is, and there is a renewed uh importance towards how to safeguard energy security uh and also food security.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think that's that's true. You say you know how fragile it was indeed, and and it has pointed out all points, all kinds of points of fra fragility, but also I think we learned something about how resilient it is and how adaptable and how companies, countries did manage to find ways around to cope with this crisis.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's right. I mean, uh Robin, I mean, you and I have been covering this energy sector for years and years, and the scenario of Hermuz being uh disrupted or closed has always been there. This is something that we've always talked about. But um none of us kind of realized that it could actually happen because uh the the scenario we ran was that yes, it could, it's possible that Iran could stop flows, but immediately you would get an intervention from the international community or the US Navy and the strait would be reopened again. It didn't happen. So we had this prolonged uh outage. Um so uh this is something that you know we need to put in our calculations, and this is what we saw in effect and what you're talking about, the resilience and the planning that took place for years uh in advance by countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE uh planning these pipelines that bypass the strait, those came into effect. And what we've been tracking is that, I mean, the UAE has been utilizing obviously its pipeline through Fujera at a maximum capacity of uh around 1.8 million barrels a day. Same with uh the uh East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. That's been exporting uh 4.5 million barrels a day. And I think from from now on, other countries in the region are gonna learn that, you know, you need these contingency plans in place, regardless of what um uh the uh analysts say around, you know, the uh the uh the probability of of something happening or uh the the rare chance that we get uh a um you know an inter international intervention from from Hermuz that opens it. But we we've seen the exact opposite. This prolonged closure uh needs a plan B. And the UAE and Saudi Arabia made those plan B active. Uh and I think the rest of the region, this is something that they need to learn. Uh contingency plans are incredibly important.
SPEAKER_00Yes, absolutely. And as you say, you know, this crisis, it wasn't quite what we expected, but I guess the crisis never is what what we what you expect, right?
SPEAKER_01Right, you're right.
SPEAKER_00Uh I mean over the past even over the past six years, we've seen three all-time global energy security crises, right? First the COVID pandemic, which was a a natural disaster of entirely.
SPEAKER_01So many black swan events, yeah, you're right.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. And then of course Russia-Ukraine, and then uh, and then this this the war in Hormuz uh just uh just now. Uh and the global energy system has had a tough time through each of those, um, and but yet it's survived at central suppliers have kept have kept flowing in general. Sure, it's been tough on some people, um, but overall the system has survived and and has not broken down. Um we've also seen, I think, the importance of companies such as yours in data transparency and and analysis in a way that we never had even a few years ago. You know, the eye in the sky that can actually tell us what's happening and provide the input to this kind of modeling. Um what are your your your clients and the people that you you serve in these kind of crises? What's most important to them? What are they asking you for?
SPEAKER_01No, of course. I mean, they're very interested in uh in flow data and what's happening with Hermuz, um, around, I mean, again, uh insurance rates, uh uh sentiment around. I mean, the fact that Hermuz was uh was closed, uh Robin, it it was just around the fact that um it the threat of of these vessels being attacked is enough to stop uh uh a lot of these vessels from exiting the strait. So that fear is is what's stopping, it's not an actual gate uh that Iran has put into the strait that stops the the flow. So, yes, there's been an increased interest, and not just for my our client base, uh we're finding just you know ordinary people suddenly, you know, talking about Kepler data and and asking what is Kepler and and wanting to know more information. So it's kind of trickled into the masses uh because it impacts everybody's lives. When you find that, you know, uh you don't have access to LPG if you're you're sitting in in India or your bills are going up if you're sitting in Europe. So it impacted all our lives. And people were even calculating um, you know, should I go on vacation this year? Is there enough jet fuel? So when you get to that point, you want to get more access to information and data. And this is what we provide at Kepler.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, thanks. Well, that's a very interesting point, and that kind of makes me think about the um the uh the democratization of that kind of information, as you say, with individual people making decisions. I guess also many companies who know we're not so directly involved in the in the energy sector and certainly not in the oil business, um, but still finding out that they needed to know these things to to plan their own their own business because of the the the wide range of commodities products in and out of this region that that were affected. Um we've seen over these kind of past three crises that that we addressed, um, obviously oil and gas was a central part of that. Um what what have you seen in terms of uh of responses uh in the broader energy energy sphere to these crises? Um providers of other forms of energy, has it been uh affecting their business? Have that have they been kind of coming to you for solutions?
SPEAKER_01Um in terms of uh you mean countries outside of uh of the region or how the the region just generally coped uh in um in in terms of their supply shortage?
SPEAKER_00Well I'm thinking really uh countries can be inside or or or outside the region, but what they did in terms of the broader energy sphere, um beyond oil and gas, did they look at other solutions and uh uh what and what did they come to you to kind of to help with?
SPEAKER_01Well, uh, I mean, everybody wanted to know really uh what does this mean for the energy transition? And does that mean a faster energy transition? And obviously, I mean this crisis exposed the fact that the world still needs oil and gas and still relies on oil and gas greatly, and how linked oil and gas is uh to the economy. I mean, you can clearly even see uh with even with the United States being now, you know, an energy exporter, not needing energy supplies from this region, it's very important for uh President Trump to keep uh oil prices or more like gasoline prices under check. Uh so uh it's um it it it it also exposed how how fragile uh the system is and how reliant it is on oil and gas. When it can't can come to the energy transition, yes, it's been picking up, and we've heard that it's been picking up ever since COVID happened. Uh, you know, there was kind of that momentum, and then that died out when President Trump kind of the the narrative changed a little bit around uh the energy transition. But we've been seeing countries uh saying that, you know, they need to move in parallel. Uh they they can't rely on uh on oil and gas. So I expect that the energy transition will uh pick up, and I hope that politicians don't have a short memory when it comes to energy security in general. And, you know, take this pragmatic approach, which we've seen here in the Gulf, Robin. I mean, uh countries here in the Gulf, despite, you know, being um gas and oil rich, have been looking at the energy transition for alternative uh supplies. So they've been investing in upstream, but at the same time, uh they have been advancing their energy transition plans. And I think this is this is something that needs to happen uh across the board. So we have been getting a lot of interest from countries that are outside, exposed, big importers, um asking if uh, you know, they should look at alternative uh sources to uh to ensure their uh energy supplies.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well I think it's an excellent point, look, on the region, as you say, that uh we'll world important oil and gas exporting region, and yes, that suffered some disruption, now getting back on track. Um, but also these countries are investing very much in uh other energy forms. So the UA, a very successful nuclear power program. Um they then throughout the region, if we take the UA, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, you know, all big investors in solar power, in some places wind power um has really really come up enormously over the past few years. And some of these countries have been world leaders in the size of their projects and in the and in the very low costs that they've achieved. So I th I think I I agree with you with certain more impetus on all of those things over the next few years. Um we also again saw challenges in that space, and I think it comes back to your point on the kind of commodities that the region exports. Some of those rather maybe overlooked, but they turn out to be important. And we learnt about a few of these uh recently. So helium, for example. Yeah. Um the region's a big exporter of helium.
SPEAKER_01I had no idea, by the way, that helium was used in MRI machines. And when I heard that hospitals uh have been, you know, complaining and not giving people appointments to get their MRIs, because I was wondering why is that? And it's because helium is some kind of component. So yeah, you just learn a lot from uh how how and Qatar is is producing 30% of the world's helium. So that's another fact. I mean, it wasn't at the forefront of everybody's uh you know memory or or uh or knowledge, uh, but that's something we found out.
SPEAKER_00Such an overlooked commodity, indeed, and yet it turns out to be so crucial for MRIs, as you say, and for chipmaking, and then uh you know feeding into the whole AI revolution. Um, that again, uh this this uh this gas that you never would have thought about otherwise. Another really interesting one for me was sulfur, right? Um, you know, sulfur critical for for uh mining a lot of copper um and nickel for batteries and for electric vehicles and so on. So key part of the energy transition. Where does sulfur come from? Comes from oil and gas processing. So another kind of niche product that we wouldn't have thought about. And I'm sure again, you were looking at what this does to to all of all that part of the uh the commodity complex.
SPEAKER_01Of course, and the fact that I mean just mining and how energy intensive mining is, people kind of overlook that uh, you know, how much energy and when is this where is this energy going to come from? So it's either renewables, as you say, it's going back to that loop of uh, you know, needing oil and gas to extract. So uh we can't unt underestimate, even in the transition. Yeah, for sure. I mean, it's been a priority and a strategic priority for a lot of the national oil companies here in uh in the Middle East, since they are um, as you mentioned, low cost, but they also want to be low carbon because they know that this is the future. And uh it's very important for them to m uh like make the world aware that their oil is uh going to be remain relevant for for a very, very long time to come, not just because of the cost, because of the low carbon uh element. So that makes their barrels even more uh competitive in the market. And I think, I mean, initially you would say Europe would demand these barrels compared to other parts of the world that might be less conscious, uh, but I think just globally that's the direction we're moving in. And that uh I mean, it's more reason that these barrels are going to survive other barrels that are uh you know higher carbon.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and we have in the past few years we have seen certified low carbon barrels uh or or or shipments of liquefied natural gas into South Korea, Japan, Singapore. So there are countries in Asia that that that think this is a very important criteria as well. Um and we know you know amongst global oil and gas producers who is low carbon. Of course, Norway stands out, but so does the UAE, so does Saudi Arabia as as is really in the in the the top tier for for uh for low emissions and in their production. Um that's again, I think an area where this kind of satellite imaging and um and and remote sensing comes in, right, particularly on kind of methane emissions. Um that's uh again that that eye in the sky that is keeping track of emissions and and and calling out the uh where that where there's a problem, pointing that out before people maybe on the ground are even aware of it.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell Yeah, for sure. That adds a kind of another layer of uh transparency beyond. But where we are right now, uh Robin, I think uh I mean the priority now is uh as we mentioned earlier, it's around energy security.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell We know the countries that relied very heavily on on renewables or on nuclear power um was to us to some extent shielded, but also those who of course who turned back to coal, uh but unfortunately very very very dirty fuel.
SPEAKER_01And that's why we're seeing an expansion in uh all these contingency plans, whether in the UAE building another pipeline that's gonna double the capacity, Saudi Arabia considering doubling down on or increasing the capacity at Yembo, uh other projects in uh in Iraq and so on, reviving these pipelines. So accessibility is gonna be key in the future.
SPEAKER_00Yes, indeed. And this develops these alternative transport routes. As you mentioned, that the various pipelines, Ianbo and uh Fajiera, maybe some pipelines out of Iraq. I'm sure other countries in the region will look at how they can plug in into those systems uh and be able to track the flows through those will be crucial. Um, but also thinking about you know where do you end up with at the at the end of those pipelines? Um is that are those the markets that you eventually need to be at, or uh are these long-term routes, or are these simply contingencies or bypasses that you hope you never have to use?
SPEAKER_01Uh well it depends on the situation, of course, but we've seen what's uh what's happened. Uh I mean the scenario did play out that a disruption is possible. Um so yeah, you would hope that you never need them, but it's uh it's it's crucial uh to have at this moment. And I mean, you can't expose your your uh your country again. I mean, countries like uh Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, uh completely exposed to this uh crisis with limited options, uh, need to look at options.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. You mentioned accessibility too, and I think energy access has been uh a core theme for for years now and a very important one, um, but maybe still one that it is lagging behind. So we talk about access for lower-income people around the world to to reliable modern energy. In this current crisis, of course, we've seen that that South Asia was was pretty badly hit early on. Yes, I think look, a more diverse energy system will be more resilient for sure. Um, and we and we we see different energy forms stepping in when one energy form is is struggling. Um, but I I'm not sure that it becomes any any necessarily any less volatile.
SPEAKER_01No, I agree with you. I mean, it's not going to be dependent just on one source of energy, and we have to, I mean, you have to kind of think about base load, right? Uh how are you going to provide your country with with base load throughout the year and then uh the the the intervals that we get seasonality and so on, and then you need to look at storage. So all of that is interconnected uh with the with each other. So it's it's very hard to say that, you know, uh my country is now energy independent 100% on on one source. Uh uh that's why this this diversification or what we call the you know the Gulf strategy of or pragmatism of looking at nuclear, looking at solar, looking at wind, still investing in uh you know gas and oil. So that's that's really the way to go. So you are going to be exposed uh if something happened, but you're just limiting your exposure.
SPEAKER_00Thinking there uh again about the key issue of kind of transport, um obviously took we talked a lot a lot about maritime transport. But when we think about the fuels, we we have s the suppliers of jet fuel, of shipping fuel, heavy fuel or of diesel for heavy heavy vehicles around the world. And and really I think the crisis ended up hitting probably jet fuel and diesel more than more than petrol or gasoline. Um those are uh fuels that your everyday consumer doesn't see too much of, but but that actually drive the global economy.
SPEAKER_01And there isn't much of an alternative to as well. I mean, if you're looking at alternatives, it's not you're not going to find an easy alternative to these fuels.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. I think and that's a really crucial point about them, isn't it? Um that for petrol, um for light vehicles, electric vehicles have have taken off and are being enormous successes.
SPEAKER_01Even in China, yeah, we're seeing kind of a pickup in EVs. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00And China has been, I think that's a key part of the, we talked a bit about China before, but a key part of their energy security strategy has been a switch to EVs. More than half of their new new vehicle sales are EVs now, diminishing the dependence on oil.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and even with EVs, uh Robin, it's it's complicated. It's not just uh, you know, bringing in a bunch of EVs. You need uh a whole system around that to uh to have EVs in the in the countries, uh the charging stations. Uh um so I don't think uh many countries are are equipped for it yet. Uh China uh or parts of China might be. Uh, but if you're looking at a market like India, for example, it's uh it's a lot more uh complicated.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, a huge infrastructure project for for any country that wants to take that on when we talk about putting fast charges all over the place, particularly for if they're talking about heavy vehicles that try and charge buses, trucks, um that that demand a huge amount of charging in in one point. Uh and and I think this comes back to a whole question of the of the electrical grid. Um how how robust is that? How how is it possible to get electrical capacity to certain points to allow for charging? Um we've got a hot an energy system, I think, uh, that is becoming increasingly electrified, but electricity is clearly a bottleneck, right? If we talk about electric vehicles, we talk about the electrifying industry, and you know, the real hot topic, of course, uh data centers, artificial intelligence, huge consumers of electricity. And and we're seeing that as a bottleneck in the US today in building these centers.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, for sure. I mean, we're seeing these uh even I mean, outside of uh the uh the the the revolution kind of is in the US, but also here in the Middle East, uh the number of data centers growing in in the UAE and Saudi Arabia's ambition of you know growing uh data centers, what's going to power all of these uh data centers? But even beyond that, we need more power. Uh we underestimate just one uh search on Chat GPT, how much energy that consumes. Uh and if we're all doing it, uh this is something, I mean, I don't think uh, you know, to to the normal end user that uh that that that we think about.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell So indeed it is a huge amount, and that's gonna rely on gas, it's gonna rely on nuclear, it's gonna rely on solar power and batteries, uh, all of those energies.
SPEAKER_01And an interconnection, I think the grid is something that you mentioned, and this interconnecting grid between uh countries in the region, I think it's still a very, very important uh uh uh project, and they they need to kind of be focusing on that.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. I think this goes to our theme of energy intercon interconnectivity and resilience and robustness, these uh these interconnections. The GCC countries are connected, it have a connected electrical grid. Um there's a lot more that could be done with that. That grid is now reaching out to to Iraq. There's a connection to now to Egypt, indeed. Um but there's there's I think uh thoughts, concepts of a much wider grid that maybe would tie in South Asia, maybe would link to Europe ultimately, a kind of pan-continental grid. I think we often think about the technical dimension of energy security. We think about the the economic dimension, a key emerging part of the energy transition as well. The energy transition, the rise of other energy forms. Some countries are very blessed in wind and solar, who are not blessed in in hydrocarbons. Some countries have all of them, right? Um, so it is going to change the relative power of countries and their their relative energy security, their their bargaining position in the global economy. Um Um there will be some winners. Let's hope there aren't some losers. But I mean there's certainly some countries for for whom the energy transition is transition is more of a challenge than for others.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, for sure. And I mean the the the other source, I mean, we didn't talk about this, but it's uh we we briefly said uh the UAE's uh nuclear uh program. Uh this is not uh uh you know uh renewable energy, but it's clean uh energy. Uh and I think I mean countries in the region, uh including Saudi Arabia, again, they're considering, you know, going into uh nuclear power. Uh Egypt, uh, I mean, so this is another option uh if if they're not blessed with uh the wind, solar, and so on, another reliable source. It comes with its own set of complexities, of course, and um uh agreements that need to be signed before uh these projects go ahead. Uh, but it's uh it's nuclear power, and I think the UAE realized that years uh before, and that's why you know we have 20% of uh power here generated by nuclear.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely, yes. Yes. I think the the value of having a very large, low-carbon base load power um like nuclear has has been proven. Not the cheapest form of energy, maybe. Um and uh uh and as you say, it brings its its own big technical and political complexities. But if you can manage those, it's proved to be a very, very effective source. Uh, you know, and and France knew this even from the 70s. Of course, that was part of the French response to the energy crisis then. Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how much the the current crisis does lead to a rev a revival of the interest in nuclear power. Yeah, for sure.
SPEAKER_01How much the US is going to be involved as well. Yes.
SPEAKER_00And some very interesting technical developments on that front as well. Small modular actors, several US startups making good good progress on those. We'll we'll see the first first of those deployed around the world, hopefully, the next few years. Yeah, for sure. So this has been a really you know fascinating conversation, very, very wide, wide-ranging. Um, and I think the the the uh the geopolitical events of the of the past few months uh have really made all of us think differently about energy security and uh and energy sustainability. We've realized energy sustainability, it is about the environment, it is about emissions, but it's also about meeting the world's need for reliable, affordable energy, meeting the needs of lower income people as well, disadvantaged people making sure they have access to modern energy in good times and and in bad times as well. Um so I'd like to like to close with just uh your thoughts on the uh on the nature of that of that transition. Um what what are your kind of key takeaways, your key top two or three from this crisis in terms of the energy transition and and sustainability?
SPEAKER_01I think the top item of uh I mean uh the things that we learned uh during this conflict is the importance of, again, energy security. It's something that hit us during COVID, but I think it's hit even harder uh now. And uh I hope, and and I said this before, Robin, that you know, politicians don't have a short memory when uh this uh this crisis is over, they don't go back uh to uh policies that go against uh energy security and affordable uh energy to uh to their populations. And I think we just need to see a healthy mix. And as far as, I mean, using Kepler data, it's uh it's kind of this crisis has uh shown uh the importance of data uh transparency, uh the importance of uh of knowing, you know, uh how flows work and how alternative and how resilient also the energy system is, because we've been uh surprised, I've been surprised by the price.
SPEAKER_00Yes, all great points, I think. Indeed, the energy system came under a huge test. On the whole, it came through it. We didn't run out of energy, we didn't run out of oil. Prices were remarkably restrained under the circumstances. Um, you know, who knows? Had it gone on longer, maybe things would have got worse, but yeah, fingers crossed it it didn't. Uh but we've also seen the importance of a diverse energy system. And and every country will do that diversity in its own way. There are interconnections between them, there's trade between them, moves energy to to where it's needed. Uh, and that on the whole has has worked out with some with some strains and uh and challenges, of course. Um but on the whole, that more diverse energy system I think has shown to be a more resilient system uh and uh than a kind of a monoculture, as you as you say, whether whether that was oil, gas, coal, renewables. I mean the the the blend of those has been very important, I think.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, for sure.
SPEAKER_00So thank you very much, Amina. You know, fascinating uh conversation. Very glad to have you on the show. Uh great time to be talking about these issues of energy security, sustainability, uh, as as we look forward to the World Future Energy Summit, which will bring together representatives from the whole energy chain and uh people have all, I think, learned a lot from this crisis and a lot of very useful lessons that will be very helpful in building uh a more diverse and hopefully more secure and sustainable energy system in the future.
SPEAKER_01Looking forward to the summit, and yeah, thank you, Robin. Thank you for having me.
SPEAKER_00Thank you.