Ep. 3: 2023 Oscar Predictions

Alex and Lee discuss several topics related to the Oscars and give their Oscar predictions.

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Transcript

Lee Pugsley  
Hey,

what's up film world? Thank you for joining us for another episode of the dark room where two blind cinephiles illuminate the sighted. I'm Lea Pugsley. 

Alex Howard  
I'm Alex Howard. 

Lee Pugsley  
And we are two legally blind guys who are your host for this podcast, which is for film lovers of all abilities. So Alex, it's that time of year again. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, the Oscar season, 

Lee Pugsley  
which is like our Super Bowl. So this is always such an exciting time. So we're just gonna dive right in and have some Oscar chatter. There's a lot of stuff going on right now. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I had a couple of questions for you, Lee, that I thought would be a good topic of conversation. What do you think about the Oscars, making audio description, a requirement to be nominated? It would go a long way for accessibility if they made this requirement.

Lee Pugsley  
I think that that's actually a really good idea. I mean, I would be a big supporter of that idea. Because in the past, not all Oscar nominated films have been accessible with audio description. And if you're new here, just to let you know what audio description is, it's a narration track that describes the action of what's going on in a film during moments where there's no dialogue. The best example I can think of of an Oscar nominated movie that did not have audio description that really put me at a disadvantage, and I'm sure it was the same for you to Alex was parasite. 


Alex Howard
Yeah, Parasite and Roma, for sure. 

Lee Pugsley
Oh, yeah. Roma was another one. And the worst person in the world last year also didn't have audio description, either. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I think it's a big problem with the International features, which I know, you know, there's some debate about with Roma, there was audio description in Spanish. And is that enough, which, you know, you and I don't speak Spanish, so we would love it in English, too. But, like All Quiet on the Western Front this year did have it in English, which was awesome. I think all the Best Picture nominees this year habit. I think the only movie in a major category that doesn't have it is to Lesley. But besides the international features, which most of them don't, all the other ones do. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah. Which is really great. I think that this year, the audio description, availability for the Oscar nominated films, has increased compared to other years where it was really hit or miss. And once again, I think that the international films have a ways to go with audio description. But going back to your initial point about should films be required to have audio description to receive an Oscar nomination, at least for the best picture nominations, I think that would be a really nice step towards inclusion and accessibility. I mean, I know that I think, is it next year that they're starting? They have to have a certain percentage of involvement from cast or crew from diverse backgrounds in order to be qualified for the best picture race. Is that correct? 

Alex Howard  
Oh, I did not hear about that. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that announced that I believe in 2021. And I think if they're moving forward with that, to try to make things more inclusive, I think that it would be a good idea, as we're moving forward, to require the Best Picture nominees to have an audio description track. Because, you know, at some point in time, it would be great to see more Academy voters in with all sorts of abilities, you know, you know, there could why not have you know, a blind or low vision Academy voter or a few of them, and why not have some Deaf Academy voters and people have other abilities as well. Right. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah. And I think I mean, that's a whole other issue for another episode would be the issue to screeners not having on your description, which is why I'm no longer film independent member. It's also why I saw most of these movies in theaters so that I didn't have to worry about, oh, my friend has a screener, I can watch it, but I won't be able to watch it the way I want to watch it. So I think making the screeners accessible, would go hand in hand with having a D available for these movies. Someone in forum that we're a part of was talking about. I think he said sag does offer ad with some of their screeners, but I'm not 100% sure on that. Another interesting thing in the forum that we saw in the last couple of days, our friend, John Stark said he he does YouTube reviews, and he reviewed one of the Oscar short films, and it didn't have AD and then ad stands for audio description in case anyone doesn't know. And the filmmakers actually reached out to him and made a track for him. And I feel like that's the way to go if there's any movies that we want audio description for, we should be reaching out to the directors or the cinematographers. You know, everyone's on Twitter now. So if you message someone involved with the movie, I feel like that's the best way to go about it as opposed to contact in the studio where your tweet or whatever wouldn't get to anyone. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I think that's a really cool thing that happened for John that the filmmaker actually created an audio description track just for him. And, you know, if I was a filmmaker, and someone reached out to me, expressing their interest in wanting to fully take in the work that they have done, and if there was a way to make it more accessible for them, I would be flattered. And I would totally be down to do that. Like, I think that's a really high compliment. And I think it also just once again, reminds people that individuals who are blind or low vision do also enjoy movies and want to get as full of an experience as possible to 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, and I think one more point on this topic, before we move on, I think the biggest complaint people would probably have for requiring an audio description track what they would say, oh, it's more expensive to make that. And while yes, I agree. I think doing an Oscar campaign in itself is very expensive. I mean, I heard that you have to pay to be even be in the Oscar screening room, that the, you know, the app that they use for all their screeners for the Academy. So I think if you're making an Oscar campaign and the push, if you're not a movie, like to Lesley, where you went an unconventional route to campaign, I think you have the money to make an audio description track. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I would agree with that. And I mean, but for those who might not know, I, it is actually quite expensive to make an audio description track. It's something that I used to think was just like, why don't people just do this, and there's still really isn't a reason why it can't be done, especially if you're a big studio. But if you are a smaller, independent company production company, then yeah, it does cost a fair amount. I don't know the exact figure on that. I'd have to research that. And that would be a good thing to explore for later in the later episode. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, we will definitely get more into that there are grants you can apply for to get, you know, tracks, things like that. But yes, that there is a cost associated. But you know, I think it would be worth it. Another question I have for you, we there are only fun fact, there are only two films nominated this year, that are under two hours for best picture out of 10. And that's Banshees and women talking. And there's only three that are under two hours and 15 minutes. And that's Top Gun Maverick is the third one. And do you think they should start bringing back the intermission like they had, you know, way back when with Sound of Music, all that kind of stuff has an intermission in the middle for sitting in a three hour 15 minute avatar movie? Should there be a 15 minute intermission in there 10 minutes, so we can go to the bathroom, all that kind of stuff.

Lee Pugsley  
I would personally love if they brought back intermission, you know, because it gives people a chance to, you know, get up and go to the bathroom or, and concessions can probably make more money because maybe people will be hungry, and they would want more popcorn or they'd want to get, you know, some kind of candy or something. But also, you could play the score during the intermission. And I think that would really illuminate the scores that are really beautiful for a lot of these movies. I mean, you think about it back in, like, you know, the 50s and 60s when they did have sound of music, or My Fair Lady, or any of those movie musicals, or even some epic films. They had those intermissions, and you got some beautiful orchestral pieces in there. So even if you didn't want to actually leave the theater, you could just sit there and take in the score. And I think that that would be a really nice nod to composers as well. What What are your thoughts? 

Alex Howard  
I didn't even think about the score part of it. That'd be really cool. Actually, especially you and I use an audio description. The score isn't always as prominent to us because we're hearing someone talk in our ear, you know, when the score is going. So the score doesn't always stand out to me as much as normal, but if it was playing during the intermission, that would be awesome.

Lee Pugsley  
Now on the other hand, though, I wonder if an intermission would take people out of the movie too, because there's something to be said about just sitting in a three hour movie, and just having a fully immersive experience where you're not being brought back to reality for that duration of time. And there is something that's kind of cool about that. But let's be honest, over three hour movies are just really long. And if it's not paced well it can drag to. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah. I mean, I would say I would love an intermission if it's like, over 2 hours and 40 minutes.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah. So I mean, this year that would include like Avatar way of water Babylon. What else was over? 

Alex Howard  
This year? I'm not sure which ones were over 2 hrs and 40 min. But I know like Tar and Triangle of Sadness were both close to two and a half hours. Fableman's was two and a half hours, you know, most of them are pushing up against two hours. 30 minutes. 

Lee Pugsley  
Right. Oh, Black Panther was like two hours and 45 minutes roughly. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, something like that. 

Lee Pugsley  
And tar was actually two hours and 41 minutes. So that was close to the three hour mark. But personally, I think that a good length for a movie would be between an hour and 45 minutes to two hours and 15 minutes. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I mean, I think it really depends on the movie, right? Like end game is like three hours? And I mean, I wouldn't want any of that cut. But I think, yeah, I mean, generally, if I see a movie, it's two hours 20 min, two and a half. I'm like, woof, you know, get ready to sit in this movie for a long time. But I mean, I'm used to now you know, go to the bathroom during the trailers right before the movie starts. I haven't had to leave a movie to go to the bathroom in a long, long time. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I think you hit it on the head. Generally speaking, the the most comfortable length for movie is between an hour and 45 to two hours and 15 minutes. Obviously there are exceptions to that rule, depending on the story that you're telling. But if you're going to tell a story that's you know, over two and a half hours, it better punch and a better move forward. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I completely agree. Yeah, I hope if your movies over two hours, 15 minutes, I hope pacing isn't an issue because it's gonna feel real long. 

Lee Pugsley  
And let's be honest, there are a fair amount of movies that you really feel the pacing. So a question for you though Alex is out of the Best Picture nominees from this year which one of them was your favorite audio description track and once again, it was reminder it was All Quiet on the Western Front avatar way of water banshees of Inishidhirin. Elvis Everything, everything everywhere all at once fable, mins, tar, Top Gun Maverick triangle of sadness and women talking.

Alex Howard  
I mean, I think my go to is everything everywhere. I feel like I don't remember the other tracks that much. But I mean, that just goes to show how good they are. Because it just blended in with the movie. But I think almost purely because everything everywhere the track was so necessary for me to enjoy it. I think that's the one that stands out to me.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I would actually agree with that. Because I think if there is a movie, from this list that you actually need an audio description track for if you're blind or low vision to fully taken it is everything everywhere all at once. Some of the other movies, you would miss things for sure. But you could still follow decently what's going on. But because there's so much with the multiverse stuff and everything everywhere, that audio description track was really needed. And I thought they did a really good job with it to have describing where you were. And it made it really easy for me to keep track of the timelines where if I didn't have that, I would be so confused. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, and same with avatar as well. I actually went to see Avatar the way of water the first time and it wasn't working the AD track. And I was like, Well, I have all my popcorn already. So I'm gonna finish my popcorn and then I'll probably leave so I left after about 20 or 30 minutes, just because I figured why am I going to sit here for three hour movie and not get the full experience? Like, I'll come back another day and you know, really get the what's going on? Because I don't want to waste my time. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that was really smart. And I know that we had talked about this before. But I remember when I went to Avengers endgame, the audio description track did not work for me in the theater. And they brought me two new devices that were programmed on a different channel. And none of the four devices they brought me for the audio description track worked. So I was basically sitting there after missing the first 20 minutes of the movie to go to the lobby and exchange that box. I was sitting there for three hours just trying to figure out what was going on. I mean, I got the gist of it. But there's definitely things I missed and then I went back like a week later to watch it again. And the audio description track still didn't work and I was like Okay, here we go. One other three hours without ad. Let's go. So that was a bit frustrating. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah. And I think we will definitely do an episode where we rewatch that together with audio description because it's awesome. But and we'll get your thoughts before and after. But I think in terms of the Oscars actually did wash to Lesley without it. I was like, I was trying to watch with a friend and he couldn't come and I was like, alright, well, I'm just gonna watch it then. Because I if it doesn't have audio description, I prefer to watch with someone so I can ask questions. But this was my first time watching something without ad by myself and a long, long time. And it was kind of tough. I mean, especially with a small movie like that. You know, there are times where she'll, I mean, she's an alcoholic in the movie, Andrea Riseborough plays an alcoholic, she's really great in it. I completely think she deserved this nomination. But there were times where, you know, she's by herself. She's doing something, she's grabbing something. And I kind of just assumed whatever they were showing her grabbing, was probably alcohol a lot of the time. But there were several moments in the movie where I was like, I do not know what they're cutting away to. Because I can't see what it is. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I wish that that movie had. And I haven't watched to Leslie yet, but I plan to before the Oscars. And I wish that they had an ad track for that. And it's interesting when you say that, like you, you kind of have to assume what's going on. There's a lot of assuming that happens when an audio description track isn't provided or it's not working. You just kind of sit there. And you're just like, I think this is happening. And I hope this is happening. But I'm not 100% Sure. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah. And I know when that's happened to you, you said you look it up on Wikipedia or something after right. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, so what I do when the audio description doesn't work for me, or there's no audio description track is I will look up a plot summary on Wikipedia just to make sure that I have all the details filled in. Or I'll go to YouTube and type in like to Leslie plot summary or something and try to find someone who can break it down, just to make sure that I caught the gist of what was going on and to see if there were any major plot points that I missed out on. 

Alex Howard  
Yeah, and I figured like little moments, little kind of ways like that. Wouldn't be in the detailed description. But I feel like I got the gist of you know what was going on. Another audio description track I want to call out for the Oscar nominated movies is All Quiet on the Western Front. Which is a an international film. German, right. Yeah, yeah. It did wonders what the BAFTA is the other day, like, what it was like seven out of 11. 

Lee Pugsley  
Seven out of 14 I believe we'll we'll get to that in a moment. But yeah, no, that was crazy. I mean, it's it has some momentum now that I wasn't expecting it to have. But in terms of the ad tracks, specifically, I thought they did a really good. First of all, I was happy that they even had one since it's an international film. 

Alex Howard  
Oh, yeah. For people that don't know, if it has audio description. And it's international, they have to do dubbing as well over you know, they can just read the subtitles with the same voice. But there's a woman talking or a male talking, they need to pretty much do a full dub track and an audio description track. So it is more work. 

Lee Pugsley  
And I thought that it was a very good track as well, like I was able to reasonably keep track of the characters because of the different voices they used. And also, they did a really good job of describing the war scenes as well. 

Alex Howard  
Oh, yeah, I agree. And did you notice there were a couple of times where the describer actually would say the dialogue or read the subtitle. There were a couple of times where they didn't dub it. And he was just like, This guy says, Oh, it was I think it was around the time they saw an ad in the in the window or something. And they had to, which is cool that they even there's one point in the movie where they're walking through town, they see an ad in the window and the ad in the window kind of comes up a couple times. I think he's like missing his girlfriend or something. And so it was cool that not only did he describe the ad, but then you know, he has to describe what the ad says because in a different language and then you know, every time he thinks about he has to bring it up again. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I do remember that and I thought that was really cool. So for anyone that's out there that worked on any audio description track for the Best Picture Oscar nominated movies, I commend you for doing a really solid job this year of making those movies accessible and for just doing really good audio description tracks for those of us that wouldn't be able to fully enjoy the movies otherwise 

Alex Howard  
Yes, thank you guys so much for all of your hard work and triangle of sadness was another great track too because that movie was nuts they do. They did a great job on all the movies this year. but yeah, Avatar, everything everywhere, All quiet and triangle of sadness, especially were probably a little more complicated tracks than the other movies.

Lee Pugsley  
I would totally agree with that. So yeah, moving forward to the Oscar race for this year, there is a lot of interesting stuff happening. And some of my thoughts on what was going to be our frontrunner or who was a lock have changed now. So we should definitely talk about that, as we get into maybe some of our predictions and everything. And also, for those of you listening, this podcast is being recorded before the Producers Guild awards have been announced. And before the SAG Awards have been announced. That will also change some of my predictions, but I will kind of give you my take on that as we go. Yeah,

Alex Howard  
I think it's great that we're recording this kind of a tween. We have the Baptists in the DJs. This past weekend, this upcoming weekend is the PGA in Sag, so at least we got some of them out of the way. So we have some kind of idea of what the potential winners could be.

Lee Pugsley  
So yeah, so we're just gonna start, you know, we'll maybe help you guys out a little bit, if you're doing an Oscar ballot poll that work or something will kind of give you our take on some of the big categories and what we think is going to win in those. And we'll also give kind of some of our commentary along the way of maybe some disappointments or some surprises that came up in each of those categories, too. So let's jump into some predictions and kind of give our thoughts on where the Oscar races at.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, so best for Best Original Screenplay. We have banshees of Inishirin, everything everywhere, all at once the fable, mins, Tar and triangle of sadness. And I would also like to note that this is the first time ever, that all of the directors who are nominated for Best Director also got a Screenplay nomination, which is shocking to me, because I feel like in your head like that must have happened before. But I guess not.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that is crazy. I mean, I'm sure it's happened before, but I didn't even think about that correlation. Good on you for catching that. We're there. First of all, were there any screenplays in this category that you were surprised got in? Or was there a screenplay that you wish would have made it in?

Alex Howard  
For best original? I don't think so. I think this is pretty much the list I would have chosen to.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I agree. I feel very content with it. There wasn't really any surprises for me. I do think that if I had to predict right now, I would say everything everywhere all at once is going to get the win. But I also think that banshees of Inisherin is a close second.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I would say I think banche is going to take it if I were picking I would say everything everywhere. But I do think I don't think Martin McDonagh's gonna win director so I think they're gonna give him screenplay.

Lee Pugsley  
You know what, that's a very valid point. I think that actually might sway me over to banshees as well. And the academy loves Martin McDonagh to like he won for three billboards that he went for In Bruges?

Alex Howard  
I'm not sure but he should have. Yeah, you should have I know

Lee Pugsley  
that that screenplay was nominated. And I will say this though, if everything everywhere all at once wins the Writers Guild Award the WGA then I will reconsider for Best Original Screenplay.

Alex Howard  
Yeah. And I think Tara's another strong I don't think Tara is gonna win. But that's a very strong screenplay, especially considering it's pretty much her talking for the first 20 minutes in the movie, pretty much a monologue. So I mean, that's amazing writing.

Lee Pugsley  
I mean, in my personal ranking, I would put banshees tar everything ever wrote once I think that it would be those would be my top three, but everything everywhere would be number three. Yeah. What do you want to win though?

Alex Howard  
I would say either tar or everything everywhere. I think with a rewatch a banshees. I might feel differently. But I don't know. I don't have much desire to re watch that movie and just wasn't it didn't grab me like it does some people. It's crazy, because I find people either really love it, or kind of like whatever about it.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I was in like the really love category. So I would say that the movie I want to win this award would be Banshees and I think it's going to win as well. So yeah, what about best adaptive screenplay?

Alex Howard  
So for best adapted, we have All Quiet on the Western Front, glass, onion, living Top Gun Maverick and women talking which is funny because I think we'll all quiets actually based on a book but knives out is only adapted because it's a sequel.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that is also really interesting. Were there any surprise nominations in here for you or any movies that you were hoping would make it into the adapted screenplay category that didn't?

Alex Howard  
I can't think of any that didn't make it that should have. I'm kind of surprised the Top Gun did just because when you think of that movie, I mean, you know, it's a visual spectacle. It's, I mean, it's so many great things, but screenplay is not something you would think of right away.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, it's true. I mean, I think it's just because the passion for Top Gun Maverick was so strong. And I don't think people were expecting the sequel to be as good as it was. So I think they're just trying to find areas where they can award that movie, or at least pay its recognition.

Alex Howard  
I think my personal favorite in this category would be women talking. But I feel like they're gonna give it to. I mean, after the bath does, I feel like they're gonna give it to all quiet.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah,I agree with that. No questions asked women talking is my favorite screenplay in the adaptive screenplay category. And it should win this award. Unfortunately, it's not going to and after the bath does, I will also predict All Quiet on the Western Front to win this award. It will be interesting, though, because I don't think it's eligible or I don't think it was nominated for the Writers Guild Award. So depending on what wins in the Writers Guild Award that will make that could make the this race very interesting to

Alex Howard  
what we'll say the WGA goes, I could see them also giving it to Rian Johnson for Knives Out because I thought, I mean, I love that movie, but I feel like you know, coming up with that kind of story is awesome.

Lee Pugsley  
I could see that. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. I think at this point, that still would not be my Oscar pic, or prediction, but I would not be surprised. It seems like a very like WGA sort of choice to

Alex Howard  
Yeah, okay, so then we get into Best Supporting Actress where we have Angela Bassett for Black Panther Wakanda forever. Hong Chau for the whale, Carrie Condon for banshees of inisherin, Jamie Lee Curtis for everything everywhere all at once. And Stephanie Hsu for everything everywhere all at once. For me, I mean, I was very happy to see that Hong Chau got in there, because I was I loved her in the whale. She was also great in the menu. And I also think I was very happy to see Stephanie Tsu in there as well, because she was awesome, and everything everywhere. And she kind of had a late awards push to get an Oscar nomination because she wasn't at the front of the race, you know, a couple of months ago.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that's true. I was really happy to see Stephanie Tsu in there. And actually, if I could vote for a winner, I would love to see Stephanie, when

Alex Howard  
I completely agree, I think I do think she did have the best supporting actors performance of the year. She I mean, the range she shows in that movie is so good.

Lee Pugsley  
I will say this though, too. I was so disappointed that none of the women from women talking were nominated in this category. And I'm sure it's because they split votes because it's such a strong ensemble. They didn't know who to nominate. But I'm like, Come on, throw someone a bone there. You know.

Alex Howard  
Yeah. i Yeah, I agree. I'm I'm shocked that that didn't get any acting nomination. Yeah. But I think you're right. It's because it's such a big variety of a cast.

Lee Pugsley  
Okay, so now the real question is Alex, who are you predicting to win the Oscar at this point?

Alex Howard  
So I know Carrie Condon won the BAFTA, but I think Angela Bassett is still going to take best support and she's won everything else already besides BAFTA, and I feel like I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like the bath does are more influenced if you are not American, like isn't Carrie Kahn and she's not British. Isn't she Irish?

Lee Pugsley  
Yes, she is. I mean, the bath does usually do go for like, you know, their home field players for sure. And they do make some more interesting choices. However, oftentimes they are very indicative of who will win the Oscar as well. So here's what I would say about So Angela Bassett has won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award. Carrie Condon has won the BAFTA I think what will be a very big tell is who wins sag. Obviously, by the time this episode goes up, we'll know who wins sag. But if Carrie Condon when sag and Angela Bassett does not then I will be very tempted to switch my prediction over to Carrie Condon.

Alex Howard  
I agree and it's that like, like we said, our if our choice it would be Stephanie Tsu. But I do think she and Jamie Lee Curtis will split votes. So I don't think either than when it's I feel like in November or December everyone was saying Jamie Lee Curtis was the front runner. Definitely and now I feel like she's almost in last place she might be three.

Lee Pugsley  
I guess it doesn't really matter honestly because it's really a two way race we have right now. The other thing though, I think about Angela Bassett, I thought her performance was very good in Wakanda forever. But the academy sometimes has a bias towards superhero movies. I mean granted Black Panther the first one did get nominated for a fair amount of awards and did really well. But Wakanda forever did not have the same awards pull as the first movie so the superhero bias could work against Angela Bassets chances of winning and if everyone loves banshees as much as it seems like they're they do and banshees is not going to win Best Picture or best director, they're going to want they may want to award it somewhere else too. And Carrie Condon is in a Best Picture movie where Angela Bassett is not. But once again what I will say is if Angela Bassett wins the SAG award, I will still predict her. If Carrie Condon wins the SAG Award, then I will probably shift my interest over to her for prediction. And if neither of them win and someone else then I don't know. I'll have to think about that one.

Alex Howard  
So then for Best Supporting Actor, the nominees are Brendan Gleason. For Banshees of Inisherin, Brian Tyree, Henry for Conway, which that was a shocker that he got in there.

Lee Pugsley  
That was a shocker. I I'm happy for him. I thought he did a very good job, but I definitely did not see that coming. Yeah,

Alex Howard  
no, I can. I thought that movie was way too small to get that kind of recognition. Judd Hirsch for the Fablemans, Barry Keoghan four Banshees of Inisherin, and Ke Hoy Quantity for everything everywhere all at once.

Lee Pugsley  
So I think that even despite what happened with the BAFTA Awards with the award for Barry Keoghan, I think that Ke Hoy Quan is a lock for this category. I don't, I don't really see any discussion beyond that. He's the one that I want to win. He's the one that I think is going to win. He has a little bit of a comeback story. He's been so charming and likable and all of his speeches and playing the awards campaign, and I do think that he's going to win.

Alex Howard  
I completely agree. Yeah, I think if there's any category that's a sure thing. I think it's this one. I will be shocked if he doesn't get in, I think yeah, once again, burnin Gleason and Barry Cogan will split votes but I do think that Ke Hoy Quan deserves it and will get it and I

Lee Pugsley  
think that out of the acting categories this is actually the only acting category that is locked I think there's other variables in the other categories that could have said Yeah, or could surprise um, but yeah, I guess we can move on now to Best Actress

Alex Howard  
yes, we're gonna move on at best lead actress it will be very interesting to see who presents this one considering Will Smith is not allowed there. So the nominees are Cate Blanchett for tar Ana de Armas for blonde. Andrea Riseborough for to Lesley Michelle Williams for the Fablemans and Michelle Yeoh for everything everywhere, all at once.

Lee Pugsley  
So first commentary, before we get into predictions on this. I love Michelle Williams, and I want her to win an Oscar at some point. I think she is fantastic. And I think that she doesn't get enough praise for the work she does oftentimes. But I was really surprised that she showed up in this category. I think that it is more of a supporting actress role. And I'm just surprised that she was able to get the nomination over Danielle Detweiler for Till or Viola Davis and the woman King.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I think Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler should have been in this category, Cate Blanchett is a force to reckon with this year with that performance.

Lee Pugsley  
It's possibly arguably her career best performance as well. Yeah. And she's never bad either. But this is just like on another level of creating dimensional character in so many different ways. Regardless of who wins the SAG Award. I think that this is Cate Blanchett, it's race to lose.

Alex Howard  
I completely agree. And yeah, the Golden Globes are interesting because they have the comedy category and the drama category. So Cate Blanchett, one, the drama and Michelle Yeoh, one the comedy.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah. And if I'm being honest, I would love to see Michelle Yeoh, when if I was an academy voter, I would probably vote for Michelle Yeoh just because I don't know honestly, if she's going to get another chance to have an Oscar nomination. I would love to believe that but you just never know where we know that Cate Blanchett is going to be back.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I mean, I think who will win will probably be Cate Blanchett, but like we said, depending on sag, it could shake things out. So it'll be very interesting this weekend to see who who takes it. So then for Best Lead Actor, we have awesome Butler for Elvis. Colin Farrell for the Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser for the whale, palm Mezcal for after sun and Bill Nye for living.

Lee Pugsley  
So first of all, do you like this lineup? Were there any surprises? Or is there anything that you wanted to see that any actor that you wanted to see in here that didn't make it in?

Alex Howard  
I couldn't tell you anyone that didn't make it in. But I'm surprised that Paul Mezcal for aftersun got in. I kept hearing whispers that like he might get in. So I went to see it at AMC before I left I think I went to like the last Showtime or something. But once again, that's a small movie just like causeway with Brian Tyree Henry then I was like, wow, this is cool that they're getting recognition. I guess

Lee Pugsley  
I'm not like super surprised that Bill Nighy got him for living. But maybe a little bit. Yeah. And that's because I think that's such a small movie that I didn't expect him to pull through.

Alex Howard  
So who do you want to win? And who do you think will win?

Lee Pugsley  
So this is tough now because, yeah, at the beginning of this campaign, I was predicting Brendan Fraser to go all the way when I saw that momentum wasn't as strong with him. And it seemed like Colin Farrell was kind of like stepping into the front position. Then I was on the Colin Farrell train as far as like what I thought would happen. But now I actually am predicting Austin Butler to win. 

Alex Howard
Wow. 

Lee Pugsley
Because if we think about it, like in the last like 20 years, the academy loves people are actors that play real people. You think about like Romy Malik, or Jamie Foxx, Eddie Redmayne, Leonardo DiCaprio. And the list goes on all of these people Colin Firth for The King's Speech, all of these people have played real life people in biopic sort of thing. And so I think for that reason, there's a lot of love. Often Butler did have a transformative performance. And I think that that really, you know, the academy loves you know, transformative performances like take once again another example Gary Oldman in the darkest hour. And then Elvis does seem to have a lot more love than I was expecting. I mean, at one like the hair and makeup guild at one costumes and hair and makeup at the bath does. And oftentimes, hair and makeup can go with the transformation of the actor that portrays that character. Take you know, last year the eyes of Tammy Faye, Jessica Chasteen, and the hair and makeup went hand in hand. So I do think that Austin Butler is I think that is going to do it honestly. It will be very telling to see who wins at sag. And I actually think that Austin Butler has a chance to win the SAG Award as well. Wow. I wouldn't be surprised if Brendan Fraser won sag. But even beyond that BAFTA has a very good track record for predicting Best Actor for like the past like, you know, 10 years or more. So. Yeah, I'm on. I'm on the Austin Butler train for who I think will win. Now who do I want to win? I think that Brendan Fraser would be my pick. I thought his performance was the most moving and spellbinding performance of this acting category. And I would love to see him win. Unfortunately, I just think that the whale is too much of a divisive and controversial movie now. People didn't seem fully on board with it where a lot more people seem engaged with Elvis. 

Alex Howard
Yeah. 

Lee Pugsley
So I'm curious to hear your thoughts on all of this and who you think is going to go into when

Alex Howard  
I'm going to stay on the Brendan Fraser train, I think he has been the the name that was the reason to see the whale was his performance. And I think his comeback story just like Ke Hoy Quan, he's been missing from Hollywood for so long. And he's just so nice. And all of his interviews and I also think awesome while they're so young, that like he'll be back. And I think the academy I don't know that Brendan Fraser will be back again, like, not that he's old, but I don't know that. He's gonna get the chance to do something like this again. And so I think they're gonna honor Brendan Fraser. But I mean, you I'm almost agreeing with you. You made some very good points, but I think I think Brendan Fraser will pull it off. I mean, yeah, Austin Butler is gonna be in Dune part two, and I mean he's still trying to roll off that Elvis boys too.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that's, I mean, I know that was like a little weird, and I feel I thought that was actually going to hurt him for a while, but I think he's coming back up and to the front runner position. Now.

Alex Howard  
Okay, so I have a question for you. It's a blind question, which is great, because this is a blind podcast. 

Lee Pugsley
Exactly. Okay. 

Alex Howard
I heard someone talking about Brendan Fraser's performance. And they said his performance is all in the eyes. And I was like, okay, I can appreciate he's good. But I couldn't see his eyes that Well, I don't know how to explain, like, I know, it was a good performance. But him communicating with his eyes, there may be a couple of things were zoomed in. Or I could see that. But, I mean, if it's a wide shot, or generally, it's hard for me to see his eyes. So how do you know when a performance is good? with low vision?

Lee Pugsley  
That's a really great question.

Alex Howard  
I just asked, I didn't even tell you, I was gonna ask you this, I'm just asking

Lee Pugsley  
you, you know, it's good. It's good. These are like these, like impromptu moments are great. So it's interesting, because I cannot unless the eyes are a zoomed in very close, I can't really see the eyes either. But it's kind of this is gonna sound weird. But it's just kind of like a vibe that you get, I guess, where you can just tell that this is a very accomplished performance. And there's something going on internally in this character's mind. And in his head. And even if you're not visually seeing it, it's kind of like, you can almost just sense it based on all the other context clues of what's going on. And the fact that for both of us that Brendan Fraser made us feel something deeply, without us being able to see his eyes and to see the story and the emotion that was conveyed in his eyes. I think that really speaks to the caliber of performance he gave to, I think, sometimes to what can help cue us into performance is when the audio description says, you know, he has a solemn look in his eyes, or he takes a long glance into the mirror or something to the things like that, where it's like, even though we can't necessarily see those specific looks in detail, just then kind of giving us that context clue, building upon what we're already feeling, adds to us knowing this is a very solid performance, I want him to win. The thing though, that makes me hesitant to predict him still is the comeback story. Because if Ke Hoy Quan has a comeback story, also, which he does. The Academy may not want to vote for two people with comeback stories. So that could potentially hurt one of them and more likely it could hurt Brendan Fraser. And then the other thing I was thinking about is Austin Butler is in a Best Picture nominated film. And oftentimes there's a correlation not all the time, but oftentimes there can be a correlation between the best picture nominations and the actors that are in them, too.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I I always forget that and you are completely right. But you are your staying with Austin Butler

Lee Pugsley  
I'm gonna ride Austin Butler till you know the end of this race now as far as like him being my winner for predictions and you're sticking with Brendan Fraser till the end.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I Yep. Let's do it. 

Lee Pugsley  
Even if Austin Butler wins the SAG Award, you're still getting a stick with Brendan.

Alex Howard  
If Austin Butler wins the SAG award that I'm changing teams,

Lee Pugsley  
okay. Okay. There we go. Fair enough.

Alex Howard  
So for Best Director, you ready for this? 

Lee Pugsley
Yes, I'm ready. Let's go. 

Alex Howard
Okay. We have Martin McDonagh for banshees of Inisherin the Daniel's for everything everywhere all at once Steven Spielberg for the fable mins Todd field for tar. And Reuben. I'm not gonna try 

Lee Pugsley
Ostland

Alex Howard
Ruben Ostland for triangle sadness, which I think that last one is kind of a surprise. I think people thought that Kaczynski for Top Gun Maverick was gonna get in.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, I thought that he was gonna get in for Top Gun Maverick. Also, I would have loved loved love Sarah Polly getting in for women talking. I completely agree. Yeah, that was just such a well directed movie. And even though it may be a little more understated in its presentation. The direction for that movie was excellent. So my prediction for this category is the Daniels winning for everything everywhere. Especially because they won the DGA, although it did kind of throw me off that they didn't win the BAFTA Award. Like I did not see that one coming at all.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, I think if you'd asked me last week, I would have said Steven Spielberg. I do think it's between Steven Spielberg or the Daniels. I do think the Daniels will ultimately pull it off. But I think that yeah, I mean, Steven Spielberg could still win. Martin McDonough could still win. I think whoever wins this one, this probably will win picture.

Lee Pugsley  
Okay, so if you had to rank like we have we know that the race is between Steven Spielberg, Martin McDonough and the Daniels How would you rank those in what order do you think that they're, they would go with like a probability.

Alex Howard  
I think the Daniels is number one Steven Spielberg is number two and Martin McDonagh is number three. think the only reason why McDonaugh is three is because I think he's gonna get screenplay.

Lee Pugsley  
That's a fair statement, or fair assessment. I think that I would actually put the Daniels at one but Martin McDonough two and then Steven Spielberg at three because I just feel like the conversations around the fablemans have died. It's just not I don't know. Have you heard conversations about the fablemans recently? 

Alex howard
No, not really. 

Lee Pugsley
So I feel like there's it just seems like there's a lot more love for banshees right now than there is for the fable mins. But kind of based on last year with Kenneth Brown, Kenneth Bronner, will they get that as a screenplay award. But he got you know, the award for Belfast, which was a very personal project for him. And he directed that in the same way, I could see them awarding Spielberg for his personal story as well. Plus, he's coming off of the heels of West Side Story last year. So Spielberg is kind of fresh in people's minds. And you know, he's just like one of those like juggernauts of Hollywood that's been around for years, and has made some of the most iconic movies of all time, and probably inspired a lot of these directors in different ways along the way, too. So I don't count Spielberg out, but I do think that he's number three.

Alex Howard  
I would agree with that. And I think well, I know I've Spielberger too, but I think we're both in agreement that the Daniels right now are in position to take it. I think

Lee Pugsley  
they should take it. that's who they're the ones I want to win. Okay, so let's move on to the fun one Best Picture. Once again, the nominees are All Quiet on the Western Front. Avatar banshees of inner Sharon. Elvis everything everywhere all at once the fable, mins tar triangle of sadness, Top Gun Maverick and women talking. So this race, I don't think it's as much of a lock is I was expecting it

Alex Howard  
to be honest, I think I think it's pretty close.

Lee Pugsley  
So yeah. So tell me your thoughts on how you're analyzing the best picture race at this point in time? And what would your what do you think isn't the number one, two and three position right now.

Alex Howard  
So I want everything everywhere. That was my favorite movie of the year. And I would like that to win. I do think everything everywhere all at once is in position to win. I think Banshee is is close. I think all quiet is kind of close, mostly because it wants so many Baptists. If you'd asked me last week, I wouldn't have said that was close. But I also think Fablemans is close to. But I think Banshees and everything everywhere are probably the two that are racing right now. That's all

Lee Pugsley  
very valid. And I definitely see where you're coming from with that.

Alex Howard  
That's a great way of saying I disagree.

Lee Pugsley  
I mean, no, just like there's other things that I guess I'm considering too. So I don't disagree. But I guess I have other things in like second. And third. Maybe before I get into my best picture commentary. I'll just put this out there. And you guys all know by now that I love women talking. So what would be my vote for what I think should win is a woman talking unfortunately, that's probably in the ninth or 10th spot on the preferential ballot.

Alex Howard  
I would love to see that win as well. But yeah, I think it's Yeah, number nine or 10.

Lee Pugsley  
I think that women talking and triangle of sadness are at the bottom of the pack right now. And I'm probably interchangeable in the nine or 10 spot. So I think that everything everywhere, is still in the first position in the front runner to win this category. However, there's also been like, you know, some talk lately about just how some people think that it's getting too much praise or it's being too overhyped, or, you know, getting too many accolades, kind of like the whole la la land situation. So it did peak and I think people are starting to ever so slightly get a little fatigued by it. But also, I think that everything everywhere while the people that liked this movie are very passionate, there are also people that just didn't get it, you know, there's people that you know, Washington to like, you know, it was just too out there and absurd for me, but there's enough people that are on board with it, but I still think it has the most momentum. I actually think that I don't know if this is number two or three. I actually think that Top Gun Maverick could come up. I think that it's had a lot more buzz lately, especially after the Oscar luncheon where Steven Spielberg basically told Tom Cruise that he like, brought people back to the movies and saved the movie going experience. And then you know, you just see Tom Cruise all around now and I don't know, I just feel like there's a lot of love that's coming back for Top Gun Maverick. Now what will be very indicative of this is who wins the PGA and who wins best acting ensemble. If Top Gun Maverick wins the PGA, the Producers Guild, then we have to, you know, believe that there's a lot of passion for that movie going around. Once again, I think that it's, you know, still an underdog by all means, but I'm gonna have you have you noticed that though, that there's a lot more buzz coming back for Top Gun.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, so I've actually noticed that a lot throughout the season. I mean, I've watched the FYC with Perri nimeroff. And just Schneider and that they've been singing Top Gun Mavericks praises through the whole season. But I mean, a lot of their predictions. I mean, they wanted Tom Cruise, your best actor all that that didn't pan out, which I didn't think I was gonna I never thought that was gonna pan out. Yeah, no, but I think I think there's a very real possibility that top gun could win Best Picture, especially like it did bring a lot of people back to the movies that, you know, they waited gave it a theatrical release. But my question to you is, do you think it would win any other awards besides Best Picture? Because isn't that strange to have it when nothing else?

Lee Pugsley  
I mean, if it wins best sound? I think so. I think the front runners for best sound would be between Top Gun Maverick and Quiet on the Western Front. And between those two, I'm not 100% Sure. I think both of them have excellent sound. 
 
Alex Howard
And but we wouldn't know we wouldn't know because we know sound really well, because we rely on that for everything. 

Lee Pugsley
So but yeah, Top Gun Maverick I think could win sound. And then the other one that that can be very telling that people are predicting I've not necessarily sold on this 100% yet, is if Top Gun Maverick wins Best Film Editing. Oftentimes, Best Picture correlates with film editing as well.

Alex Howard  
That's right. I forgot about that. Yeah, they usually go hand in hand, right? 

Lee Pugsley  
Teah so on Oscar night, if I'm watching and Top Gun Maverick wins film editing, I will be very, I will be like, Oh, that actually has a chance now to win Best Picture. So I don't know. It's just interesting, because I never thought that I would be putting top gun in my top three contenders for Best Picture. But it's actually up there in the second or third position now. And, you know, coming out of the pandemic, still people might just want a movie that's like, fun and uplifting. And it might just be one of those Coda situations where it's just peeking at exactly the right time. Right before voting closes.

Alex Howard  
So for me, I would I would put everything everywhere one. banshees at two and topkin at three and probably Fablemans into four. What do you think?

Lee Pugsley  
I would say I would do everything everywhere at one top gun at two banshees at three. All Quiet on the Western Front at four and the fableman's up five.

Alex Howard  
That's right. Yeah, I think yeah, I would put all quiet five, but I wouldn't be surprised any of those. I think I feel like this is the closest Best Picture race we've had in a while.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, and it's not once again, it's not as locked as I thought it was going to be because initially I just thought everything everywhere is gonna take it no questions asked. But now I'm not 100% sure of that anymore.

Alex Howard  
That's very interesting. Yeah, it's

Lee Pugsley  
gonna be a fun race, though.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, no, it definitely will be. And so you think that banshees could walk away it has four active nominations, Best Director, Best Picture Best Screenplay. It could walk away with just Best Screenplay.

Lee Pugsley  
I do think that that I do think that's possible. I mean, look at like in a few years ago, the Irishman got like 10 nominations and walked away empty handed. That's very true. Now granted, I think there's a lot more love for banshees than there was for the Irishman as well. So I do acknowledge that. But I think that banshees will win something, I just don't think it's going to perform maybe as well as people are hoping for. Yeah. And once again, for Best Picture, it will be very indicative. What wins the Producers Guild as well. If Top Gun doesn't win the Producers Guild, I'm probably going to put a little lower and just like fully write everything everywhere all at once to you know, the opening of the envelope of the ceremony.

Alex Howard  
So yeah, I would keep an eye on our Instagram. And if there are any changes to our predictions, maybe we'll do a little story and tell you guys what our changes are. But yeah, right now I think we're predicting everything everywhere all at once to take Best Picture.

Lee Pugsley  
So before we wrap up, Alex, I just wanted to ask you a few fun questions. If you could give a Any movie, a nomination that has not been in this year's crowd of movies? What movie would you choose? And what nomination would you give it?

Alex Howard  
Oh, definitely Daniel Detweiler for till her performance was so good. I was blown away by that. And I mean, I didn't think that movie was gonna be for me and I really liked that movie. Nice. What about you?

Lee Pugsley  
I would go with Michael April's score for Nope. I love that score. And I don't know why it wasn't in the Best Original Score category. Cuz it should have been. And then

Alex Howard  
Is The Batman up for score? 

Lee Pugsley
no, it's not 

Alex Howard
that one too. 

Low Pugsley
Wait is it up for score?

Alex Howard
I don't think it is

Lee Pugsley  
I don't think it is either actually accurate. And then next question, what is the win at this year's Oscars that you want to happen the most? Regardless of prediction, just that you personally want? What is your what would your personal moment of joy when be?

Alex Howard  
Probably Ke Hoy Quan for everything everywhere. I would say everything everywhere in for Best Picture. But I think that's a little too much to ask. I just I want to see the little kid from Indiana Jones go up and get an Oscar and see him, you know, bubbling with joy. And thank you, Steven Spielberg, who hired him on the Goonies and Indiana Jones. I think that'd be really, really cool. 

Lee Pugsley  
Totally totally support that. 

Alex Howard
What about you? So interestingly enough, what I would love to see is, Mrs. Harris goes to Paris when for best costumes, because I think that those costumes are phenomenal.

Alex Howard  
Oh, nice. See, that's the one that I still need to see. Because I've seen everything in screenplay, everything actor director picture, and not seeing Mrs. Harris goes to Paris. And I'm not seeing the sea beast.

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, which I have seen the sea beast and Mrs. Harris goes to Paris. But I haven't seen to Leslie and blonde. So I need to get on those. But at least between us collectively, we've seen all of them. Yes.

Alex Howard  
At least all the ones that are English language. Yeah. And then,

Lee Pugsley  
yeah. Any other final thoughts on any Oscar predictions or just Oscars in general that we haven't talked about so far?

Alex Howard  
I don't think so. Like I said, keep an eye on Instagram. And I think we got some mail that we wanted to talk about real quick, too. 

Lee Pugsley
Oh, yeah. 

Alex Howard
So my friend Matt Lauterbach, he works for all senses go that his company emailed us and told us he really enjoys the podcast and I my history I used to do consulting with him. He hasn't hit me up in a while. But yeah, I consulted on Sundance Film Festival for I think I did the virtual and the in person for a couple of years, but basically like the signage. So since I'm low vision, and colors play a big part in what I can see and what I can't see. So companies go to him and ask him, Hey, do you know anyone blind or low vision, who you can show these to and get their thoughts and come back to? So yeah, he came to me and a couple of other people and asked for our thoughts. And so that was really cool to work with him on a couple projects. I think it did the SF Film Festival and a couple of other things. So hopefully, we will have something with him in the future involved in one of the episodes. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, that would be awesome. 

Yeah, it was really cool that he had reached out to us and hopefully, we'll be getting some. 

Lee Pugsley
Yeah, some other people that have questions will feel comfortable to email us which you can always email us at dark room film cast@gmail.com. And feel free to ask us anything. And if there's any conversation topics that you want us to cover, bring those up to anything to add to that.

Alex Howard  
Yeah, literally, like we've mentioned before, any questions about eyesight or movies or anything like that? Feel free to email us and our Instagram handle is the same, right? Yeah, dark room at dark room film Cast. Yeah. So follow us on Instagram for updated Oscar news. And feel free to email us with any questions. 

Lee Pugsley  
Yeah, well, thank youYeah, well, thank you guys so much for listening. And once again, this is going to be an exciting Oscar race this year. Hopefully you guys will all enjoy the ceremony and you'll win your Oscar pool.

Alex Howard  
And hopefully there are no slabs this year.

Lee Pugsley  
Hopefully not. All right. Have a good day. Have a good day.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai