In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson to unpack why China has struggled to rebalance its economy toward the consumption-led growth it desperately needs. 

China’s economic slowdown is sending shockwaves across global markets, raising concerns about the future of the world’s second-largest economy. Once a key driver of global growth, the country now faces a range of challenges, from a sluggish property sector and mounting local government debt to declining foreign investment and weakened consumer demand. These issues, coupled with the government’s cautious approach to stimulus and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has sparked debate about whether China can regain its economic momentum. As businesses and investors worldwide watch closely, the question remains: why it is almost impossible to re-engineer China’s political economy?

Central to the issue is China’s investment-led growth model, which has driven massive infrastructure development, but it has also led to diminishing returns. The state-controlled, bank-dominated financial system has resulted in a surge of non-performing loans, highlighting inefficiencies in the country’s investment strategy. With capital accumulation now outpacing returns, China faces escalating financial risks, including the potential for a major crisis.

Furthermore, despite years of effort, China has struggled to shift toward a consumption-driven economy, where domestic demand could play a more significant role in growth. Structural barriers such as income inequality, high savings rates, and an undervalued currency make this transition difficult. The government’s reluctance to relinquish control over the economy, prioritizing trade surpluses and state-directed investments, further complicates the shift. To pivot towards a consumption-based model, China would need to implement sweeping reforms, including a more progressive tax system, improved social security, and higher wages. Without these changes, China risks prolonged stagnation and financial crises that could derail its long-term growth and geopolitical aspirations. 

Tune into this podcast as Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down the key factors behind China’s sluggish growth and what it means for global markets.  

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