{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":0.21,"endTime":4.86,"body":"Welcome everyone to Mystery"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":0.21,"endTime":4.86,"body":"AI Hype Theater 3000, where we seek"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":4.86,"endTime":6.96,"body":"catharsis in this age of AI hype."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":7.29,"endTime":10.65,"body":"We find the worst of it and pop it"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":7.29,"endTime":10.65,"body":"with the sharpest needles we can find."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":11.31,"endTime":13.74,"body":"Along the way we learn"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":11.31,"endTime":13.74,"body":"to always read the footnotes, and each"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":13.74,"endTime":16.86,"body":"time we think we've reached peak AI"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":13.74,"endTime":16.86,"body":"hype, the summit of Bullshit Mountain,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":16.86,"endTime":18.21,"body":"we discover there's worst to come."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":19.29,"endTime":21.21,"body":"I'm Emily M. Bender, professor"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":19.29,"endTime":21.21,"body":"of Linguistics at the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":21.21,"endTime":22.38,"body":"University of Washington."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":22.74,"endTime":25.14,"body":"And I'm Alex Hanna,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":22.74,"endTime":25.14,"body":"director of Research for the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":25.14,"endTime":27.0,"body":"Distributed AI Research Institute."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":27.6,"endTime":32.04,"body":"This is Episode 56, which we're"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":27.6,"endTime":32.04,"body":"recording on April 21st, 2025."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":32.61,"endTime":37.2,"body":"We are here today with one of our most"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":32.61,"endTime":37.2,"body":"consistent gripes, about the way AI"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":37.29,"endTime":41.31,"body":"and specifically so-called Artificial"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":37.29,"endTime":41.31,"body":"General Intelligence is presented"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":41.4,"endTime":45.53,"body":"as inevitable, unstoppable, sure"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":41.4,"endTime":45.53,"body":"to come into being if we just pour"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":45.53,"endTime":50.04,"body":"enough stolen data, scarce resources"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":45.53,"endTime":50.04,"body":"and money into chatbot companies."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":50.4,"endTime":52.89,"body":"And if Artificial"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":50.4,"endTime":52.89,"body":"General Intelligence isn't exciting"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":52.89,"endTime":55.98,"body":"enough for you, what about Artificial"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":52.89,"endTime":55.98,"body":"Super Intelligence, which one"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":55.98,"endTime":59.67,"body":"organization is trying to say could"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":55.98,"endTime":59.67,"body":"be here within a mere two years?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":60.15,"endTime":63.78,"body":"We make a point to note this fallacy when"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":60.15,"endTime":63.78,"body":"it comes up in other contexts, but today"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":63.78,"endTime":66.21,"body":"this inevitability as hype is our focus."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":66.45,"endTime":70.95,"body":"We want to talk about why in fact, AGI"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":66.45,"endTime":70.95,"body":"is not inevitable nor possibly even real."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":71.4,"endTime":73.62,"body":"We found a great artifact"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":71.4,"endTime":73.62,"body":"to focus on as we do."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":73.62,"endTime":77.19,"body":"Someone spent a lot of time trying"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":73.62,"endTime":77.19,"body":"to sound very, very rational as they"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":77.19,"endTime":80.97,"body":"predict not just the inevitable AGI,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":77.19,"endTime":80.97,"body":"but also how the world will react."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":81.554,"endTime":84.645,"body":"Very rational"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":81.554,"endTime":84.645,"body":"indeed, if that tips you off."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":85.095,"endTime":87.075,"body":"But you know what is inevitable though?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":87.225,"endTime":88.065,"body":"That's right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":88.275,"endTime":92.595,"body":"Our book, The AI Con, is coming out"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":88.275,"endTime":92.595,"body":"in just a few short weeks from now,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":92.895,"endTime":95.025,"body":"before this episode is even released."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":95.175,"endTime":98.715,"body":"If you're in the US, pre-order it now so"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":95.175,"endTime":98.715,"body":"you can have the instant it's available."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":99.134,"endTime":103.005,"body":"That's May 13th in the US and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":99.134,"endTime":103.005,"body":"affiliated markets, and May 22nd"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":103.005,"endTime":105.015,"body":"for the UK in affiliated markets."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":105.345,"endTime":107.655,"body":"And you can catch"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":105.345,"endTime":107.655,"body":"our tour where we'll be promoting the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":107.655,"endTime":110.414,"body":"book, talking about some of our most"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":107.655,"endTime":110.414,"body":"important points, and meeting our"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":110.414,"endTime":112.185,"body":"fellows in the fight against AI hype."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":112.485,"endTime":115.785,"body":"We'll be doing virtual and in-person"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":112.485,"endTime":115.785,"body":"events all throughout May and into June."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":115.815,"endTime":119.055,"body":"Visit TheCon.AI for a full list."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":119.97,"endTime":122.43,"body":"Alright, before we actually get"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":119.97,"endTime":122.43,"body":"to the main artifact, I wanna just"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":122.43,"endTime":123.45,"body":"show this off a little bit more."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":123.45,"endTime":125.28,"body":"Alex and I got our author copies."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":125.52,"endTime":126.72,"body":"It's gorgeous."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":126.96,"endTime":127.2,"body":"So nice."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":127.2,"endTime":129.3,"body":"Um, yes, and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":127.2,"endTime":129.3,"body":"just the, the whole thing."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":129.3,"endTime":129.99,"body":"It's beautiful."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":130.199,"endTime":134.4,"body":"And, uh, if you're jealous, if you want"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":130.199,"endTime":134.4,"body":"one as soon as possible, pre-order."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":134.73,"endTime":138.21,"body":"And if you're just listening to us, um,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":134.73,"endTime":138.21,"body":"you know, well take a peek at our socials."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":138.21,"endTime":139.29,"body":"You'll see pictures of it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":139.35,"endTime":142.62,"body":"Um, I've done an unboxing video"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":139.35,"endTime":142.62,"body":"as we're recording this already."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":142.77,"endTime":144.93,"body":"Alex might do one in the future,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":142.77,"endTime":144.93,"body":"by the time you're listening."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":145.23,"endTime":147.299,"body":"Um, we are having lots of fun."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":147.85,"endTime":148.48,"body":"Which is good."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":148.5,"endTime":154.05,"body":"Very, yeah, it's great"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":148.5,"endTime":154.05,"body":"um, that it is real and in the world."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":154.74,"endTime":156.69,"body":"Um, but something that's not real and not."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":156.945,"endTime":159.795,"body":"Well, it's in the world, but I"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":156.945,"endTime":159.795,"body":"guess it's not real, is this thing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":159.795,"endTime":167.115,"body":"So a few people sent us this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":159.795,"endTime":167.115,"body":"artifact and it is called \"AI 2027.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":167.745,"endTime":171.435,"body":"Um, and it's pretty, it's pretty rough."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":171.765,"endTime":173.535,"body":"Um, pretty, pretty bad stuff."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":173.535,"endTime":180.855,"body":"It is a website that comes from,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":173.535,"endTime":180.855,"body":"um, uh, it is, it is made by an"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":180.855,"endTime":186.555,"body":"organization called AI Futures, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":180.855,"endTime":186.555,"body":"there's five authors on them, on it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":186.615,"endTime":195.405,"body":"Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":186.615,"endTime":195.405,"body":"Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":196.155,"endTime":199.935,"body":"Um, just poking around a little"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":196.155,"endTime":199.935,"body":"bit, they're all kind of people"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":199.935,"endTime":203.235,"body":"who are Less Wrong affiliated."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":203.625,"endTime":204.345,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":204.995,"endTime":208.755,"body":"Yeah, do you wanna read this little"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":204.995,"endTime":208.755,"body":"box about how they are self-described?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":208.755,"endTime":208.965,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":208.965,"endTime":214.755,"body":"So \"Who are we?\" So Daniel Kokotajlo,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":208.965,"endTime":214.755,"body":"maybe, um, links his qualifications"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":214.755,"endTime":217.125,"body":"as Time100 and New York Times piece."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":217.365,"endTime":220.454,"body":"That Time100 is not the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":217.365,"endTime":220.454,"body":"overall Time100, just FYI."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":220.454,"endTime":221.715,"body":"It's the Time100 AI."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":222.015,"endTime":223.875,"body":"And the New York Times piece"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":222.015,"endTime":223.875,"body":"might be something he wrote."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":223.875,"endTime":224.96,"body":"I didn't click through on it before."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":225.675,"endTime":226.185,"body":"Um, no."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":226.185,"endTime":227.325,"body":"Oh, it's a profile of him."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":228.304,"endTime":228.505,"body":"Ugh."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":228.525,"endTime":229.04,"body":"Um, okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":229.1,"endTime":230.049,"body":"By Kevin Roose."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":230.3,"endTime":231.02,"body":"Of course."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":231.27,"endTime":235.515,"body":"Um, so \"Former OpenAI researcher"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":231.27,"endTime":235.515,"body":"whose previous AI predictions have"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":235.515,"endTime":239.325,"body":"held up well.\" So these are also"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":235.515,"endTime":239.325,"body":"these like super predictor dudes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":239.655,"endTime":244.095,"body":"Uh, \"Eli Lifland co-founded AI Digest,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":239.655,"endTime":244.095,"body":"did AI robustness research and ranks"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":244.155,"endTime":249.015,"body":"number one on the RAND Forecasting"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":244.155,"endTime":249.015,"body":"Initiative all time leader board.\" Uh,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":249.045,"endTime":253.165,"body":"\"Thomas Larson founded the Center for AI"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":249.045,"endTime":253.165,"body":"Policy and did AI safety research at the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":253.165,"endTime":254.125,"body":"Machine Intelligence Research Institute."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":254.144,"endTime":257.144,"body":"Romeo Dean is completing a computer"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":254.144,"endTime":257.144,"body":"science concurrent bachelor's and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":257.144,"endTime":260.565,"body":"master's degree at Harvard, and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":257.144,"endTime":260.565,"body":"previously was an AI policy fellow at"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":260.565,"endTime":262.515,"body":"the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":263.025,"endTime":266.025,"body":"Scott Alexander, blogger"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":263.025,"endTime":266.025,"body":"extraordinaire, volunteered to rewrite"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":266.025,"endTime":268.185,"body":"our content in an engaging style."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":268.545,"endTime":271.425,"body":"The fun parts of the story are his"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":268.545,"endTime":271.425,"body":"and the boring parts are ours.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":273.405,"endTime":273.705,"body":"Yeah, it's, it's, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":273.705,"endTime":276.435,"body":"And already Abstract Tesseract"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":273.705,"endTime":276.435,"body":"says, \"This is some of the worst"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":276.735,"endTime":279.925,"body":"fanfic I've ever read, and I've"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":276.735,"endTime":279.925,"body":"spent a lot of time on AO3.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":280.125,"endTime":280.275,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":280.335,"endTime":284.265,"body":"Man, don't, yeah, don't bring"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":280.335,"endTime":284.265,"body":"it, don't bring AO3 into this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":284.455,"endTime":288.925,"body":"That's not, that's not,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":284.455,"endTime":288.925,"body":"it's, that's not fair to AO3."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":288.925,"endTime":289.225,"body":"Uh, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":289.245,"endTime":293.61,"body":"So, I mean, so Scott Alexander, um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":289.245,"endTime":293.61,"body":"you know, he runs this blog called"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":293.61,"endTime":298.44,"body":"Slate Sar Codex, which I think has"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":293.61,"endTime":298.44,"body":"been now renamed to Astral Codex 10."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":298.89,"endTime":306.12,"body":"Um, just kind of like this weird"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":298.89,"endTime":306.12,"body":"rationalist, um, trash, uh, very--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":306.12,"endTime":307.59,"body":"Who, who"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":306.12,"endTime":307.59,"body":"wrote this Wikipedia article?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":307.59,"endTime":307.83,"body":"Is it him?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":307.909,"endTime":310.77,"body":"I (crosstalk), yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":310.77,"endTime":312.27,"body":"There's, I have no idea."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":312.48,"endTime":315.06,"body":"And it's very, um, oh gosh."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":315.06,"endTime":320.76,"body":"And you click through to this page"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":315.06,"endTime":320.76,"body":"and the, uh, the tagline of it is, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":320.79,"endTime":327.99,"body":"\"Bayes' rule.\" Um, so, uh, because they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":320.79,"endTime":327.99,"body":"are all very dedicated Bayesians, but"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":327.99,"endTime":332.34,"body":"it's really wild that these rationalists"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":327.99,"endTime":332.34,"body":"think that they're really dedicated"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":332.34,"endTime":336.99,"body":"Bayesians when like, man, like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":332.34,"endTime":336.99,"body":"these numbers are completely made up."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":336.99,"endTime":342.63,"body":"Like, like you're just completely, just"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":336.99,"endTime":342.63,"body":"making it -- and it's very indicative that"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":342.75,"endTime":348.79,"body":"he links to Richard Hanania's newsletter,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":342.75,"endTime":348.79,"body":"kind of famed race science eugenicist."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":349.26,"endTime":349.77,"body":"Um, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":349.77,"endTime":351.96,"body":"Anyways, they, they all kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":349.77,"endTime":351.96,"body":"of hang together, right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":351.965,"endTime":352.9,"body":"They're,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":351.965,"endTime":352.9,"body":"they're TESCREALists."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":352.92,"endTime":354.0,"body":"We should not be surprised."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":354.27,"endTime":354.45,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":354.45,"endTime":357.9,"body":"Um, and the, the AI that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":354.45,"endTime":357.9,"body":"gets developed in this bad fan fiction,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":357.9,"endTime":359.82,"body":"um, is also TESCREAList if we get there."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":360.42,"endTime":360.66,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":361.26,"endTime":362.175,"body":"Well, let's get it to this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":362.175,"endTime":366.54,"body":"This is a very long artifact,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":362.175,"endTime":366.54,"body":"so maybe we should, yeah I don't"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":366.54,"endTime":368.135,"body":"really know where to start."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":368.135,"endTime":368.885,"body":"Yeah, let's do it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":368.885,"endTime":370.35,"body":"Yeah, let's just"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":368.885,"endTime":370.35,"body":"describe what we're seeing a little bit."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":370.35,"endTime":375.03,"body":"So there's, it's a pretty highly produced"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":370.35,"endTime":375.03,"body":"webpage and on the right hand side"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":375.03,"endTime":379.02,"body":"there's this like moving graphic that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":375.03,"endTime":379.02,"body":"is telling us which month we're in."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":379.11,"endTime":381.18,"body":"So I just scrolled down to December, 2025."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":381.48,"endTime":383.94,"body":"And at the bottom it's got like, what"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":381.48,"endTime":383.94,"body":"currently exists, what's emerging"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":383.94,"endTime":386.97,"body":"tech and what's science fiction, and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":383.94,"endTime":386.97,"body":"they're moving these little dots over."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":387.48,"endTime":389.61,"body":"The dots actually are,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":387.48,"endTime":389.61,"body":"um, specific things."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":389.61,"endTime":392.7,"body":"Yeah, they're"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":389.61,"endTime":392.7,"body":"actual things and it's like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":392.7,"endTime":395.52,"body":"first one is virtual secretary."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":396.0,"endTime":398.67,"body":"The second is AI boyfriend."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":398.97,"endTime":402.48,"body":"'cause I guess they just want to gender"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":398.97,"endTime":402.48,"body":"it differently than AI girlfriend."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":403.32,"endTime":403.92,"body":"Oh man."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":404.43,"endTime":406.23,"body":"The second"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":404.43,"endTime":406.23,"body":"one is AI programmer."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":406.23,"endTime":410.46,"body":"The third one is research automator,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":406.23,"endTime":410.46,"body":"um, \"AIs that can completely"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":410.46,"endTime":413.76,"body":"automate AI R\u0026D,\" which is not true."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":413.765,"endTime":416.37,"body":"And then, and then it"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":413.765,"endTime":416.37,"body":"says AGI is already here."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":416.64,"endTime":418.47,"body":"Uh, emerging"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":416.64,"endTime":418.47,"body":"tech, AGI is \"emerging tech\" and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":418.47,"endTime":421.68,"body":"also \"currently exists, includes"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":418.47,"endTime":421.68,"body":"self-driving cars capable of navigating"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":421.68,"endTime":424.544,"body":"city streets.\" I don't think so."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":424.664,"endTime":424.935,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":424.935,"endTime":427.425,"body":"What we have right now are self-driving"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":424.935,"endTime":427.425,"body":"cars that are monitored remotely"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":427.425,"endTime":430.554,"body":"in Mexico and get confused if you"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":427.425,"endTime":430.554,"body":"put an orange cone on their hood."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":431.375,"endTime":431.815,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":431.815,"endTime":432.255,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":432.775,"endTime":435.734,"body":"Well, it's good enough for their,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":432.775,"endTime":435.734,"body":"for their, for their purposes."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":435.885,"endTime":436.755,"body":"Oh, so sorry."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":436.755,"endTime":441.255,"body":"The emerging tech is the stuff which"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":436.755,"endTime":441.255,"body":"is basically in development and then"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":441.255,"endTime":444.914,"body":"that that currently exists and they've"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":441.255,"endTime":444.914,"body":"got all these different check marks"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":444.914,"endTime":448.875,"body":"and it's, we started, and I mean,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":444.914,"endTime":448.875,"body":"significant 'cause the first star is image"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":448.875,"endTime":451.034,"body":"recognition, which, you know, we can--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":451.039,"endTime":451.719,"body":"Oh yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":451.719,"endTime":453.32,"body":"I'm, I'm actually at December, 2020."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":453.63,"endTime":453.919,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":453.94,"endTime":454.479,"body":"So, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":454.479,"endTime":454.619,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":454.619,"endTime":459.015,"body":"If we go up to the first one is, the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":454.619,"endTime":459.015,"body":"very first one is like image recognition,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":459.075,"endTime":461.205,"body":"kind of the ImageNet kinda stuff."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":461.205,"endTime":464.655,"body":"And it goes all the way to the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":461.205,"endTime":464.655,"body":"last one, which is science fiction."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":464.924,"endTime":467.625,"body":"And the most advanced thing is nanobots."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":467.985,"endTime":468.555,"body":"Uh."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":468.859,"endTime":470.96,"body":"\"Autonomously replicating"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":468.859,"endTime":470.96,"body":"artificial nanobots.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":470.96,"endTime":476.989,"body":"And the, um, second most, uh, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":470.96,"endTime":476.989,"body":"the second most sci-fi is Dyson"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":477.019,"endTime":483.56,"body":"swarms, um, which capture \"a fraction"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":477.019,"endTime":483.56,"body":"of the sun's energy.\" So, okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":483.859,"endTime":487.34,"body":"And then there's, and then there's also,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":483.859,"endTime":487.34,"body":"there's also these other kinds of things."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":487.34,"endTime":491.9,"body":"There's these AI capabilities, the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":487.34,"endTime":491.9,"body":"categories are hacking, coding,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":492.02,"endTime":498.26,"body":"politics, uh, bio weapons, robotics,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":492.02,"endTime":498.26,"body":"and then forecasting itself."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":498.739,"endTime":505.849,"body":"Uh, and then, and then there's, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":498.739,"endTime":505.849,"body":"then there's a compute pie chart, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":505.849,"endTime":512.28,"body":"then there's like, um, the, and then"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":505.849,"endTime":512.28,"body":"there's sort of like a, a a a, a temporal"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":512.28,"endTime":519.09,"body":"graph, which has three categories, which"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":512.28,"endTime":519.09,"body":"is, um, \"OpenBrain\", which is the name"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":519.09,"endTime":524.579,"body":"they'll give to the kind of collective"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":519.09,"endTime":524.579,"body":"American companies, \"leading Chinese"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":524.579,"endTime":528.6,"body":"lab\", and then \"best public model\"."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":529.02,"endTime":533.73,"body":"Um, so that already gives you, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":529.02,"endTime":533.73,"body":"an idea of where we're going with this."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":533.85,"endTime":534.15,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":534.3,"endTime":535.77,"body":"And this graph."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":535.77,"endTime":538.89,"body":"So what's, what's this graph is those"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":535.77,"endTime":538.89,"body":"are the three categories and it is, uh,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":538.89,"endTime":542.579,"body":"it says, \"This graph shows how much AI"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":538.89,"endTime":542.579,"body":"systems are speeding up the process of"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":542.579,"endTime":546.569,"body":"AI research compared to a baseline of"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":542.579,"endTime":546.569,"body":"human researchers. We also highlight"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":546.569,"endTime":551.37,"body":"milestones in general capabilities.\" So"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":546.569,"endTime":551.37,"body":"this is basically a very long version"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":551.52,"endTime":555.48,"body":"of the, um, what, whatever they call"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":551.52,"endTime":555.48,"body":"it, where all of a sudden the AI is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":555.48,"endTime":558.449,"body":"good enough to do more AI research and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":555.48,"endTime":558.449,"body":"it just like takes off exponentially."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":558.54,"endTime":561.119,"body":"Like that's, that's sort"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":558.54,"endTime":561.119,"body":"of the heart of the story."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":561.52,"endTime":563.189,"body":"And yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":563.515,"endTime":563.824,"body":"Huh."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":563.905,"endTime":564.245,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":564.574,"endTime":566.55,"body":"So it's pretty, it's pretty bad."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":566.609,"endTime":571.92,"body":"Uh, they've got a, they've got a lot of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":566.609,"endTime":571.92,"body":"this, this formatting of, this website's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":571.92,"endTime":576.87,"body":"weird 'cause they've got these footnotes,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":571.92,"endTime":576.87,"body":"which are, um, that you can get."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":576.87,"endTime":582.03,"body":"And then they've got, uh, these"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":576.87,"endTime":582.03,"body":"little blogs, uh, that you can expand."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":582.03,"endTime":588.12,"body":"And then there's two possible endings"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":582.03,"endTime":588.12,"body":"because, you know, they, I don't know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":588.87,"endTime":592.357,"body":"Uh, anyways, let's, let's get,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":588.87,"endTime":592.357,"body":"this is so long, so let's, and I"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":592.416,"endTime":594.269,"body":"want -- let's, let's talk about it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":594.269,"endTime":594.379,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":594.469,"endTime":596.609,"body":"So I'm, I'm"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":594.469,"endTime":596.609,"body":"gonna read this paragraph here."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":596.719,"endTime":600.209,"body":"Which is supposedly grounded in"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":596.719,"endTime":600.209,"body":"current reality, like we haven't"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":600.209,"endTime":601.68,"body":"actually gone past the present moment."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":601.709,"endTime":603.99,"body":"Oh, and by the way, it's also worth"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":601.709,"endTime":603.99,"body":"noting that this was published"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":604.17,"endTime":605.55,"body":"on April 3rd of this year."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":605.55,"endTime":606.51,"body":"Mm-hmm."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":606.87,"endTime":611.07,"body":"So, \"The AIs of 2024 could"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":606.87,"endTime":611.07,"body":"follow specific instructions."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":611.1,"endTime":614.7,"body":"They could turn bullet points into emails"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":611.1,"endTime":614.7,"body":"and simple requests into working code."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":615.06,"endTime":618.21,"body":"In 2025, AIs function more like employees."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":618.54,"endTime":621.6,"body":"Coding AIs increasingly look like"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":618.54,"endTime":621.6,"body":"autonomous agents rather than mere"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":621.6,"endTime":624.75,"body":"assistants, taking instructions"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":621.6,"endTime":624.75,"body":"via Slack or Teams and making"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":624.75,"endTime":628.59,"body":"substantial code changes on their own,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":624.75,"endTime":628.59,"body":"sometimes saving hours or even days."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":628.91,"endTime":632.19,"body":"Research agents spend half an hour"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":628.91,"endTime":632.19,"body":"scouring the internet to answer"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":632.19,"endTime":635.82,"body":"your question--\" And, always read"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":632.19,"endTime":635.82,"body":"the footnotes, what's this? Um,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":636.57,"endTime":640.2,"body":"this is a pointer. \"For example,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":636.57,"endTime":640.2,"body":"we think coding agents will move"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":640.2,"endTime":641.67,"body":"towards functioning like DEVON."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":641.88,"endTime":646.8,"body":"We forecast that mid 2025 agents will"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":641.88,"endTime":646.8,"body":"score 85% on the SWE-bench Verified.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":647.85,"endTime":651.6,"body":"Um, also this, \"research agents spend"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":647.85,"endTime":651.6,"body":"half an hour scouring the internet.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":651.6,"endTime":653.67,"body":"Like what's the half an hour there?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":655.47,"endTime":658.8,"body":"Is that like actual, well,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":655.47,"endTime":658.8,"body":"it's, it is also very interesting"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":658.8,"endTime":660.87,"body":"how they talk about time horizons."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":660.87,"endTime":668.385,"body":"It's like how they, is it like this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":660.87,"endTime":668.385,"body":"is the, um, I'm gonna use a Marxian"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":668.385,"endTime":670.185,"body":"term, so please, please, excuse me."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":670.185,"endTime":675.795,"body":"But this is like the socially necessary"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":670.185,"endTime":675.795,"body":"labor time to like do a certain task."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":675.795,"endTime":677.625,"body":"I mean, 'cause this is sort"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":675.795,"endTime":677.625,"body":"of how they talk about it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":677.905,"endTime":679.515,"body":"But we'll get into that a little bit more."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":679.515,"endTime":683.625,"body":"'cause this is sort of gets at like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":679.515,"endTime":683.625,"body":"socially necessarily labor time that"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":683.625,"endTime":688.094,"body":"like a average human would take to do"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":683.625,"endTime":688.094,"body":"this or someone with that expertise."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":688.344,"endTime":688.634,"body":"Exactly."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":688.685,"endTime":691.155,"body":"Well not an average human,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":688.685,"endTime":691.155,"body":"a super genius human, right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":691.155,"endTime":694.395,"body":"Well, no, but not, not"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":691.155,"endTime":694.395,"body":"the super genius human, the humans"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":694.395,"endTime":696.525,"body":"that are getting basically replaced."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":696.525,"endTime":696.584,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":696.675,"endTime":696.915,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":697.395,"endTime":697.694,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":697.755,"endTime":698.265,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":698.265,"endTime":698.595,"body":"All right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":698.685,"endTime":698.925,"body":"All right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":698.925,"endTime":701.474,"body":"So, \"The agents are impressive in"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":698.925,"endTime":701.474,"body":"theory and in cherry picked examples,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":701.474,"endTime":702.675,"body":"but in practice, unreliable."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":702.704,"endTime":705.525,"body":"AI Twitter is full of stories"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":702.704,"endTime":705.525,"body":"about tasks bungled in some"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":705.525,"endTime":706.814,"body":"particularly hilarious way."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":707.265,"endTime":709.064,"body":"The better agents are also expensive."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":709.064,"endTime":711.405,"body":"You get what you pay for and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":709.064,"endTime":711.405,"body":"the best performance still costs"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":711.405,"endTime":712.545,"body":"hundreds of dollars a month."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":712.724,"endTime":716.895,"body":"Still, many companies find ways to fit"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":712.724,"endTime":716.895,"body":"AI agents into their workflows.\" Um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":716.925,"endTime":717.224,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":717.584,"endTime":719.064,"body":"All"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":717.584,"endTime":719.064,"body":"right, so this is just--"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":719.534,"endTime":719.764,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":719.764,"endTime":723.365,"body":"So we, so we get in, so we get into"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":719.764,"endTime":723.365,"body":"this, and this is where the story starts."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":723.365,"endTime":727.064,"body":"Like in, in kind of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":723.365,"endTime":727.064,"body":"in, in, in seriousness."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":727.064,"endTime":728.625,"body":"So this is late 2025."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":729.045,"endTime":733.455,"body":"\"The world's most expensive AI."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":729.045,"endTime":733.455,"body":"OpenBrain uh, is building the biggest"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":733.455,"endTime":738.255,"body":"data centers the world has ever seen.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":733.455,"endTime":738.255,"body":"And they give some details about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":738.255,"endTime":742.875,"body":"what this is and like how much, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":738.255,"endTime":742.875,"body":"how much it's costing, et cetera."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":743.385,"endTime":746.505,"body":"And so they use the, they use the term"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":743.385,"endTime":746.505,"body":"OpenBrain, and they've got a graph,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":746.505,"endTime":751.875,"body":"which is sort of the, the amount of,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":746.505,"endTime":751.875,"body":"um, compute needed to train this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":751.875,"endTime":755.135,"body":"And the new model is called Agent-1."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":755.625,"endTime":759.855,"body":"Um, and so they use this scheme where"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":755.625,"endTime":759.855,"body":"it's Agent hyphen 1, and this is kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":759.855,"endTime":761.745,"body":"of the scheme that they use throughout."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":761.745,"endTime":767.085,"body":"And so just as a comparison, they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":761.745,"endTime":767.085,"body":"have GPT-4, which is estimated to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":767.385,"endTime":770.564,"body":"be 2 times 10 to the 25th flops."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":771.015,"endTime":776.49,"body":"And then Agent-1 takes 3"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":771.015,"endTime":776.49,"body":"times 10 to the 27th flops."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":777.45,"endTime":782.91,"body":"And I'm already like, already here,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":777.45,"endTime":782.91,"body":"we're just like getting into the sci-fi."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":782.94,"endTime":786.39,"body":"'cause you're like, well you are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":782.94,"endTime":786.39,"body":"saying that this thing is gonna"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":786.39,"endTime":791.07,"body":"take this much and like, aren't we"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":786.39,"endTime":791.07,"body":"already at a place where Microsoft"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":791.07,"endTime":793.71,"body":"and many of these companies are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":791.07,"endTime":793.71,"body":"already scaling back their data con,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":793.77,"endTime":795.33,"body":"like their data center construction."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":795.33,"endTime":798.45,"body":"Like what is this, like where"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":795.33,"endTime":798.45,"body":"is this estimate coming from?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":798.51,"endTime":801.12,"body":"I don't really, I don't"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":798.51,"endTime":801.12,"body":"think I see any sources."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":802.02,"endTime":802.23,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":802.86,"endTime":806.68,"body":"So I wanna, I wanna take us back up to the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":802.86,"endTime":806.68,"body":"top because somewhere in here, um, \"Why"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":806.68,"endTime":809.01,"body":"Is This Valuable?\" I think it was in here."},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":809.354,"endTime":813.584,"body":"\"We have"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":809.354,"endTime":813.584,"body":"set ourselves an impossible task: Trying"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":813.584,"endTime":818.584,"body":"to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":813.584,"endTime":818.584,"body":"go is like trying to predict how World"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":818.584,"endTime":823.354,"body":"War III in 2027 would go, except that"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":818.584,"endTime":823.354,"body":"it's an even larger departure from past"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":823.354,"endTime":826.834,"body":"case studies. Yet it is still valuable to"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":823.354,"endTime":826.834,"body":"attempt, just that it is valuable for the"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":826.834,"endTime":830.805,"body":"US military to game out Taiwan scenarios.\""},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":826.834,"endTime":830.805,"body":"And boy, is the, uh, Sinophobia"},{"speaker":"They talk about how, um, yeah","startTime":830.824,"endTime":832.594,"body":"gonna be a thread throughout this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":832.834,"endTime":832.954,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":833.224,"endTime":836.704,"body":"Um, so, uh, let's see."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":836.765,"endTime":839.915,"body":"\"Painting the whole picture makes us"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":836.765,"endTime":839.915,"body":"notice important questions or connections"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":839.915,"endTime":843.334,"body":"we hadn't considered or appreciated"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":839.915,"endTime":843.334,"body":"before, or realize that a possibility is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":843.334,"endTime":847.594,"body":"more or less likely. Moreover, by sticking"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":843.334,"endTime":847.594,"body":"our necks out with concrete predictions"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":847.745,"endTime":851.435,"body":"and encouraging others to publicly state"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":847.745,"endTime":851.435,"body":"their disagreements, we make it possible"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":851.435,"endTime":853.234,"body":"to evaluate years later who was right.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":853.234,"endTime":855.395,"body":"So this is the whole"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":853.234,"endTime":855.395,"body":"Less Wrong shtick, right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":855.454,"endTime":855.845,"body":"Yeah, yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":855.905,"endTime":858.515,"body":"And they make it sound"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":855.905,"endTime":858.515,"body":"like they are so rational and they,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":858.515,"endTime":860.104,"body":"they realize what's more or less likely."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":860.615,"endTime":862.084,"body":"It's just science fiction, right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":862.324,"endTime":862.385,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":863.645,"endTime":864.425,"body":"It's science fiction."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":864.425,"endTime":868.055,"body":"And it's like, if you wanna challenge"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":864.425,"endTime":868.055,"body":"me debate, you know, debate me, bro."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":868.415,"endTime":873.964,"body":"Like, and I'm like, what if I don't,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":868.415,"endTime":873.964,"body":"what if the premises and every assumption"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":873.964,"endTime":876.275,"body":"you're making is just absolutely batshit?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":876.545,"endTime":877.805,"body":"I don't wanna debate you, bro."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":878.015,"endTime":879.275,"body":"No, we're"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":878.015,"endTime":879.275,"body":"gonna, we're gonna ridicule"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":879.275,"endTime":879.995,"body":"them, is what we're gonna do."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":880.444,"endTime":880.775,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":880.834,"endTime":881.105,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":881.105,"endTime":882.755,"body":"That's,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":881.105,"endTime":882.755,"body":"that's our purpose here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":883.444,"endTime":887.045,"body":"So the Sinophobia starts,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":883.444,"endTime":887.045,"body":"speaking of, so they're like, uh, so they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":887.045,"endTime":890.415,"body":"start, so \"Although models are improving"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":887.045,"endTime":890.415,"body":"on a wide range of skills, one stands"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":890.415,"endTime":895.704,"body":"out, OpenBrain. Open brain focuses on"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":890.415,"endTime":895.704,"body":"AIs--\" And you know, like, which is a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":895.885,"endTime":898.314,"body":"term that send, you know, sends, sends me."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":898.495,"endTime":901.895,"body":"Um, so \"--AIs that can speed"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":898.495,"endTime":901.895,"body":"up AI research. They want to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":901.915,"endTime":905.375,"body":"win the twin arms race against"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":901.915,"endTime":905.375,"body":"China--\" So here's the Sinophobia."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":905.375,"endTime":910.555,"body":"\"whose leading company we'll call"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":905.375,"endTime":910.555,"body":"DeepCent--\" Um, so kind of a Portman"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":910.704,"endTime":916.194,"body":"two of Deep Seek and Tencent,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":910.704,"endTime":916.194,"body":"um, and their US competitors."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":916.704,"endTime":920.874,"body":"Um, the more their RD cycle they can"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":916.704,"endTime":920.874,"body":"automate, the faster they can go."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":922.044,"endTime":924.324,"body":"Um, where's the twin race?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":924.354,"endTime":927.174,"body":"There was a against China"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":924.354,"endTime":927.174,"body":"and the US competitors."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":927.204,"endTime":927.384,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":927.384,"endTime":927.744,"body":"Oh, I see."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":927.749,"endTime":928.019,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":928.464,"endTime":932.274,"body":"Uh, I was like, alright, so then, so"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":928.464,"endTime":932.274,"body":"effectively this is the whole shtick."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":932.274,"endTime":939.654,"body":"It's like, you know, like we are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":932.274,"endTime":939.654,"body":"basically in these initial rounds, um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":940.015,"endTime":943.855,"body":"Training these agents"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":940.015,"endTime":943.855,"body":"to do more AI research."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":944.275,"endTime":949.375,"body":"Um, and you know, like, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":944.275,"endTime":949.375,"body":"then, and so then, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":949.375,"endTime":950.545,"body":"I'll, I'll stop there."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":950.545,"endTime":952.074,"body":"'cause Emily, you're jumping to get in."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":952.314,"endTime":953.785,"body":"Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":952.314,"endTime":953.785,"body":"there's a, uh, where'd it go?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":953.785,"endTime":953.964,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":953.964,"endTime":957.475,"body":"So, um, this, this whole thing,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":953.964,"endTime":957.475,"body":"like the whole point is like,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":957.475,"endTime":958.765,"body":"well, AI is the whole point."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":958.765,"endTime":962.454,"body":"So we're gonna make an AI does that does"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":958.765,"endTime":962.454,"body":"AI, but they have this very funny Footnote"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":962.454,"endTime":965.305,"body":"19 that I spent some time searching"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":962.454,"endTime":965.305,"body":"for, 'cause I wanted to get back to it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":965.605,"endTime":968.964,"body":"Um, so, \"Modern AI systems are"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":965.605,"endTime":968.964,"body":"gigantic artificial neural networks."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":968.995,"endTime":972.415,"body":"Early in training, an AI won't"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":968.995,"endTime":972.415,"body":"have goals so much as reflexes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":973.135,"endTime":975.175,"body":"If it sees 'pleased to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":973.135,"endTime":975.175,"body":"meet' it outputs 'you'."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":975.535,"endTime":979.045,"body":"But the time it has been trained"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":975.535,"endTime":979.045,"body":"to predict, oh, by the time"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":979.045,"endTime":981.475,"body":"it has been trained to predict"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":979.045,"endTime":981.475,"body":"approximately one internet's worth"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":981.475,"endTime":983.605,"body":"of text--\" Which is a hilarious unit."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":984.265,"endTime":987.745,"body":"\"--it'll have developed sophisticated"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":984.265,"endTime":987.745,"body":"internal circuitry that encodes vast"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":987.745,"endTime":990.594,"body":"amounts of knowledge and flexibly"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":987.745,"endTime":990.594,"body":"role plays as arbitrary authors"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":990.775,"endTime":993.954,"body":"since that's what helps it predict"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":990.775,"endTime":993.954,"body":"text with superhuman accuracy.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":994.704,"endTime":995.215,"body":"So."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":996.414,"endTime":997.464,"body":"None of that's true."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":997.464,"endTime":998.844,"body":"Like citation needed."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":998.844,"endTime":999.084,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":999.084,"endTime":1001.574,"body":"There's, so there's a footnote here that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":999.084,"endTime":1001.574,"body":"I really wanted to make sure we got to."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1001.574,"endTime":1006.344,"body":"Number 19, \"People often get hung"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1001.574,"endTime":1006.344,"body":"up on whether those AIs are sentient"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1006.344,"endTime":1009.914,"body":"or whether they have quote 'true"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1006.344,"endTime":1009.914,"body":"understanding'. Geoffrey Hinton,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1009.944,"endTime":1014.274,"body":"Nobel Prize winning founder of"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1009.944,"endTime":1014.274,"body":"the field, thinks they do.\" Cat?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1014.484,"endTime":1015.024,"body":"Cat."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1015.524,"endTime":1015.914,"body":"I know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1015.914,"endTime":1016.274,"body":"Sorry."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1016.274,"endTime":1019.124,"body":"There was something on her,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1016.274,"endTime":1019.124,"body":"on her side and I worried if"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1019.124,"endTime":1020.354,"body":"it was like a stitch or not."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1020.66,"endTime":1022.485,"body":"So I wanted to double check."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1022.695,"endTime":1027.3,"body":"So it might be something I have to,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1022.695,"endTime":1027.3,"body":"uh, sorry for the cat intervention."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1027.389,"endTime":1030.21,"body":"We might have to go in with some"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1027.389,"endTime":1030.21,"body":"scissors later and not call that."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1030.21,"endTime":1031.23,"body":"Oh, okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1031.56,"endTime":1032.77,"body":"Um, so cat, all right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1032.77,"endTime":1034.11,"body":"So Geoff Hinton thinks they do."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1034.259,"endTime":1037.44,"body":"\"However, we don't think it matters"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1034.259,"endTime":1037.44,"body":"for the purposes of our story, so feel"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1037.44,"endTime":1041.099,"body":"free to pretend we said 'behaves as"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1037.44,"endTime":1041.099,"body":"if it understands' whenever we say"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1041.099,"endTime":1045.27,"body":"'understands' and so forth. Empirically,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1041.099,"endTime":1045.27,"body":"large language models already behave"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1045.27,"endTime":1048.75,"body":"as if they are self-aware to some"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1045.27,"endTime":1048.75,"body":"extent, more and more so every year.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1048.929,"endTime":1052.38,"body":"So they're basically trying to do an end"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1048.929,"endTime":1052.38,"body":"run around the fact that they are just"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1052.38,"endTime":1056.13,"body":"synthetic text extruding machines and say,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1052.38,"endTime":1056.13,"body":"well, it doesn't matter if they understand"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1056.13,"endTime":1057.09,"body":"or behave as if they understand."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1057.09,"endTime":1059.909,"body":"'Cause it comes out to the same"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1057.09,"endTime":1059.909,"body":"and it's like, no it doesn't."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1059.909,"endTime":1060.21,"body":"Right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1060.54,"endTime":1064.08,"body":"If people credulously read the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1060.54,"endTime":1064.08,"body":"output or understand that the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1064.08,"endTime":1066.989,"body":"output is just synthetic text,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1064.08,"endTime":1066.989,"body":"those are two very different things."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1067.71,"endTime":1068.25,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1068.31,"endTime":1068.699,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1068.73,"endTime":1069.54,"body":"No, completely."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1069.54,"endTime":1071.52,"body":"And it's, I mean, there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1069.54,"endTime":1071.52,"body":"so much trash here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1071.52,"endTime":1076.409,"body":"There's the 'one internet's', uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1071.52,"endTime":1076.409,"body":"you know, internet as a measurement."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1077.279,"endTime":1078.719,"body":"Um, which is absurd."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1079.17,"endTime":1087.42,"body":"There's the random citation to something"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1079.17,"endTime":1087.42,"body":"called AI Digest, which is the, uh--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1087.426,"endTime":1088.08,"body":"Is that this one?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1089.1,"endTime":1090.42,"body":"No, no, that's not it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1090.42,"endTime":1095.88,"body":"But that's the one that suggests"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1090.42,"endTime":1095.88,"body":"that these are the, the quote"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1095.88,"endTime":1098.04,"body":"unquote AIs are self-aware."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1098.489,"endTime":1103.29,"body":"Um, and the, this is the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1098.489,"endTime":1103.29,"body":"empirical and it's written by, um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1104.655,"endTime":1106.574,"body":"somebody, I don't know, AI Digest."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1106.574,"endTime":1110.405,"body":"And, and there's also an existential"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1106.574,"endTime":1110.405,"body":"risk laboratory at University of Chicago,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1110.405,"endTime":1112.81,"body":"which is, which is, you know, univers--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1112.97,"endTime":1114.945,"body":"We're, we're"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1112.97,"endTime":1114.945,"body":"gonna hit every letter of the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1114.945,"endTime":1116.384,"body":"TESCREAL bundle, aren't we?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1116.475,"endTime":1116.804,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1116.804,"endTime":1120.255,"body":"It's just like real, it's, it's,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1116.804,"endTime":1120.255,"body":"you're, it's real deep in it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1120.255,"endTime":1123.435,"body":"Like these folks are real"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1120.255,"endTime":1123.435,"body":"deep in the sauce here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1123.764,"endTime":1130.335,"body":"Um, the next thing that I think is very"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1123.764,"endTime":1130.335,"body":"bizarre is the, um, the next sentence."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1130.335,"endTime":1134.054,"body":"So, \"After being trained to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1130.335,"endTime":1134.054,"body":"predict internet texts, the model"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1134.054,"endTime":1137.685,"body":"is then trained to produce texts"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1134.054,"endTime":1137.685,"body":"in response to instructions.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1138.554,"endTime":1140.534,"body":"This is fucked up."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1140.534,"endTime":1146.475,"body":"So they say, \"This bakes in a basic"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1140.534,"endTime":1146.475,"body":"personality and quote 'drives'.\" Um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1146.835,"endTime":1152.025,"body":"and it's, and then, uh, there's, there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1146.835,"endTime":1152.025,"body":"a long footnote here about like what"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1152.025,"endTime":1158.445,"body":"bakes in a persona, um, the prompt to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1152.025,"endTime":1158.445,"body":"basically have a, what they call later,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1158.445,"endTime":1163.23,"body":"\"a helpful, honest, and harmless AI"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1158.445,"endTime":1163.23,"body":"chat chatbot,\" or a Triple-H chatbot,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1163.529,"endTime":1169.23,"body":"which if you are a, if you're a WWE"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1163.529,"endTime":1169.23,"body":"fan, like, I guess that's related."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1170.19,"endTime":1176.19,"body":"Um, and then it's, but it's, but like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1170.19,"endTime":1176.19,"body":"I mean there's such like, it's not"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1176.19,"endTime":1181.38,"body":"subtle on the, like, on the reference"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1176.19,"endTime":1181.38,"body":"to psychology, it's like, and the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1181.38,"endTime":1184.469,"body":"kind of dodge, and we're saying like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1181.38,"endTime":1184.469,"body":"well, we're using this as a stand-in."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1184.469,"endTime":1187.259,"body":"And I'm just like, yes,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1184.469,"endTime":1187.259,"body":"and that's a problem."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1187.409,"endTime":1191.46,"body":"And I'm like, you know, like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1187.409,"endTime":1191.46,"body":"drive, are you thinking about Freud?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1191.46,"endTime":1192.75,"body":"Is this the death drive?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1192.96,"endTime":1193.98,"body":"Is this the sex drive?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1193.98,"endTime":1195.9,"body":"Like, what are you,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1193.98,"endTime":1195.9,"body":"what are we doing here?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1196.08,"endTime":1196.409,"body":"You know?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1196.409,"endTime":1196.71,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1196.83,"endTime":1200.79,"body":"And they've got scare quotes, but I think"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1196.83,"endTime":1200.79,"body":"there's different kinds of scare quotes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1200.79,"endTime":1202.409,"body":"This is like defensive scare quotes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1202.409,"endTime":1203.759,"body":"See, see, see, we put scare quotes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1203.759,"endTime":1205.65,"body":"We don't mean to do"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1203.759,"endTime":1205.65,"body":"this, you know, for real."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1205.889,"endTime":1209.549,"body":"As opposed to when I use scare quotes is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1205.889,"endTime":1209.549,"body":"like this thing that other people call it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1209.835,"endTime":1209.924,"body":"Right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1210.795,"endTime":1211.275,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1211.395,"endTime":1215.114,"body":"Well, it's very, it's, it's a, it's,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1211.395,"endTime":1215.114,"body":"it's a, it's a, it's a weird dodge."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1215.715,"endTime":1217.995,"body":"Um, but they're, but they're"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1215.715,"endTime":1217.995,"body":"like, we're just, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1217.995,"endTime":1219.255,"body":"we're gonna do this anyways."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1219.975,"endTime":1220.284,"body":"Ugh, um--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1220.545,"endTime":1223.014,"body":"Oh, yeah, so then"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1220.545,"endTime":1223.014,"body":"like, flat out psychology, right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1223.014,"endTime":1224.71,"body":"You see they've got this box here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1224.71,"endTime":1226.665,"body":"Yeah yeah, they say"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1224.71,"endTime":1226.665,"body":"this right here in this little box."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1226.665,"endTime":1227.025,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1227.139,"endTime":1230.565,"body":"So where they say, \"Training process"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1227.139,"endTime":1230.565,"body":"and LLM psychology. Why we keep"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1230.565,"endTime":1236.625,"body":"saying 'hopefully' in quotes.\" Um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1230.565,"endTime":1236.625,"body":"and then they makes some comment"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1236.625,"endTime":1238.304,"body":"about, like, interpretability."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1238.665,"endTime":1243.614,"body":"Um, basically the idea that, like we"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1238.665,"endTime":1243.614,"body":"say it's gonna act like this, but like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1244.034,"endTime":1246.764,"body":"we don't know what's like inside of it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1246.764,"endTime":1247.335,"body":"Anyway, it's, it's--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1247.965,"endTime":1249.705,"body":"And this"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1247.965,"endTime":1249.705,"body":"quote from OpenAI is terrible."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1249.705,"endTime":1252.975,"body":"It says, \"Unlike ordinary software,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1249.705,"endTime":1252.975,"body":"our models are massive neural networks."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1253.154,"endTime":1256.065,"body":"Their behaviors are learned from a"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1253.154,"endTime":1256.065,"body":"broad range of data, not programmed"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1256.065,"endTime":1260.295,"body":"explicitly. Though not a perfect analogy,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1256.065,"endTime":1260.295,"body":"the process is more similar to training"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1260.295,"endTime":1262.125,"body":"a dog than to ordinary programming.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1263.295,"endTime":1266.745,"body":"I'm reminded, there's this wonderful quote"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1263.295,"endTime":1266.745,"body":"from Dykstra from 1985 where he says,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1266.745,"endTime":1271.335,"body":"you know that the people who do EdTech"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1266.745,"endTime":1271.335,"body":"seem to think that Pavlov had like not"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1271.335,"endTime":1275.114,"body":"only what it is to be a dog, but what"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1271.335,"endTime":1275.114,"body":"it is to be a person down completely."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1275.174,"endTime":1278.625,"body":"And he said, \"I can assure you from"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1275.174,"endTime":1278.625,"body":"extensive interaction with my dog,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1278.625,"endTime":1281.745,"body":"that Dykstra,\" oh not Dykstra, \"--that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1278.625,"endTime":1281.745,"body":"Pavlov only had the smallest bit"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1281.745,"endTime":1283.389,"body":"of what it is to be a dog.\" Right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1283.495,"endTime":1283.855,"body":"Like, yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1284.504,"endTime":1287.504,"body":"Anyway, so OpenAI, I just"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1284.504,"endTime":1287.504,"body":"wanna point out that like these"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1287.504,"endTime":1290.665,"body":"people look pretty dang fringe."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1290.955,"endTime":1294.165,"body":"But they're also quoting stuff"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1290.955,"endTime":1294.165,"body":"from OpenAI, which is ridiculous."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1294.404,"endTime":1298.125,"body":"And OpenAI has the models where if"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1294.404,"endTime":1298.125,"body":"you submit a paper to a conference"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1298.125,"endTime":1300.554,"body":"and you didn't test it against GPT-4,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1298.125,"endTime":1300.554,"body":"whatever, people are like, well,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1300.554,"endTime":1301.574,"body":"you didn't do state of the art."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1302.024,"endTime":1307.245,"body":"So we are not actually very many degrees"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1302.024,"endTime":1307.245,"body":"of separation from what's considered"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1307.245,"endTime":1309.165,"body":"like mainstream AI research with this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1310.365,"endTime":1312.195,"body":"Yeah, I think"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1310.365,"endTime":1312.195,"body":"that's a great point."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1312.195,"endTime":1315.764,"body":"I mean, I think these folks like to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1312.195,"endTime":1315.764,"body":"point out that they're, you know, like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1315.764,"endTime":1320.145,"body":"they're on the outsider, they're on"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1315.764,"endTime":1320.145,"body":"the outside and in some of the like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1320.385,"endTime":1326.025,"body":"maybe palace intrigue of like what"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1320.385,"endTime":1326.025,"body":"happened at OpenAI last year where, they,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1326.145,"endTime":1330.585,"body":"they dissolved the superintelligence"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1326.145,"endTime":1330.585,"body":"team and Ilya started his own thing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1331.005,"endTime":1335.235,"body":"And you know, like, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1331.005,"endTime":1335.235,"body":"and like Dario and, and, um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1335.775,"endTime":1338.385,"body":"uh, what's his sister's name?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1338.505,"endTime":1339.554,"body":"It's not Daria."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1339.78,"endTime":1346.185,"body":"Um, it's, um, Dario Amodei and,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1339.78,"endTime":1346.185,"body":"and, and I'm just gonna look it"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1346.215,"endTime":1351.284,"body":"up, 'cause-- but he and, and, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1346.215,"endTime":1351.284,"body":"Daniela, thank, thank you, thank you."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1351.284,"endTime":1355.545,"body":"Our, our producer dropping it in the chat"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1351.284,"endTime":1355.545,"body":"as I type-- and then starting Anthropic"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1355.545,"endTime":1356.985,"body":"and sort of like the safety in mind."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1357.014,"endTime":1359.715,"body":"Like, you're not too"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1357.014,"endTime":1359.715,"body":"many hops away, right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1359.715,"endTime":1366.715,"body":"It's, you are here and there's still"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1359.715,"endTime":1366.715,"body":"so much, and you know, like there's,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1366.975,"endTime":1370.44,"body":"and there is, and they also say in"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1366.975,"endTime":1370.44,"body":"here that they are like, they're"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1370.444,"endTime":1374.625,"body":"like giving a mon giving money away"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1370.444,"endTime":1374.625,"body":"to like get these forecasts right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1374.625,"endTime":1378.315,"body":"Anyways, let's, let's go through,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1374.625,"endTime":1378.315,"body":"because this is a very long, and I wanna"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1378.315,"endTime":1383.594,"body":"like, like there's, so one part I wanna"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1378.315,"endTime":1383.594,"body":"like, I wanna highlight a few, there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1383.594,"endTime":1386.294,"body":"a few points to heart and I really"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1383.594,"endTime":1386.294,"body":"would like to try to get to the end."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1386.444,"endTime":1386.654,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1386.654,"endTime":1389.955,"body":"At least of the,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1386.654,"endTime":1389.955,"body":"like of the, um, the sort of--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1389.96,"endTime":1391.159,"body":"So, Choose Your"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1389.96,"endTime":1391.159,"body":"Own Adventure thing at the end."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1391.165,"endTime":1392.594,"body":"The Choose"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1391.165,"endTime":1392.594,"body":"Your Own Adventure thing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1392.984,"endTime":1396.614,"body":"I mean, would love to at least get into"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1392.984,"endTime":1396.614,"body":"the, the, the kind of doomsday scenario."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1396.614,"endTime":1396.944,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1396.975,"endTime":1398.205,"body":"It's really ridiculous."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1398.565,"endTime":1402.764,"body":"So, yeah, so like mid, I"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1398.565,"endTime":1402.764,"body":"wanna go to mid 2026, so this is \"China"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1402.764,"endTime":1408.014,"body":"Wakes Up,\" so incredible, incredible,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1402.764,"endTime":1408.014,"body":"incredible shit, you know, and you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1408.014,"endTime":1412.875,"body":"couldn't just like, you know, like the,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1408.014,"endTime":1412.875,"body":"you know, like I wouldn't be surprised"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1412.875,"endTime":1418.155,"body":"if this was a piece of, you know um, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1412.875,"endTime":1418.155,"body":"know, Immigration Act, uh, propaganda"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1418.155,"endTime":1420.315,"body":"from the turn of the, of the 20th century."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1420.315,"endTime":1424.884,"body":"So, \"In China, the CCP is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1420.315,"endTime":1424.884,"body":"starting to feel the AGI.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1424.9,"endTime":1425.84,"body":"What's this link to?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1425.844,"endTime":1426.975,"body":"Um, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1427.094,"endTime":1432.375,"body":"And this, uh, link just links to, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1427.094,"endTime":1432.375,"body":"that, that, yeah Futurism article."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1432.705,"endTime":1433.275,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1433.335,"endTime":1434.955,"body":"I love the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1433.335,"endTime":1434.955,"body":"sticker, \"AI shamanism.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1435.525,"endTime":1435.735,"body":"I know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1435.735,"endTime":1436.065,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1436.065,"endTime":1439.415,"body":"That where Ilya says at"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1436.065,"endTime":1439.415,"body":"OpenAI you gotta feel the AGI."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1439.815,"endTime":1440.355,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1441.239,"endTime":1444.84,"body":"So, \"Chip export controls and lack"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1441.239,"endTime":1444.84,"body":"of government support have left"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1444.929,"endTime":1449.04,"body":"China high, uh, China under-resourced"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1444.929,"endTime":1449.04,"body":"compared to the West.\" They talk"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1449.04,"endTime":1450.989,"body":"about like getting chips in."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1451.05,"endTime":1454.71,"body":"Um, they talk about the sort of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1451.05,"endTime":1454.71,"body":"like, um, things that they do."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1454.71,"endTime":1456.889,"body":"They talk about the re-centering."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1457.29,"endTime":1461.4,"body":"Um, and so institutionally what they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1457.29,"endTime":1461.4,"body":"are saying here is that like, well"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1461.73,"endTime":1467.76,"body":"now there's a area of this region"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1461.73,"endTime":1467.76,"body":"of China that they, that they build"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1467.76,"endTime":1469.5,"body":"right next to this huge power plant."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1469.83,"endTime":1473.28,"body":"Um, and they develop these"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1469.83,"endTime":1473.28,"body":"centralized development zones."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1473.79,"endTime":1477.63,"body":"Um, and like, and they're now"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1473.79,"endTime":1477.63,"body":"trying to do this and they start"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1477.63,"endTime":1479.73,"body":"talking about cybersecurity."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1479.73,"endTime":1484.949,"body":"They talk about basically the desire"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1479.73,"endTime":1484.949,"body":"to steal weights from OpenBrain."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1485.52,"endTime":1487.469,"body":"Um, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1487.5,"endTime":1491.67,"body":"And it's, and then there are,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1487.5,"endTime":1491.67,"body":"then there's this talk of jobs."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1492.0,"endTime":1495.16,"body":"Um, we're gonna get back to the,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1492.0,"endTime":1495.16,"body":"the China stuff, the Sinophobia--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1495.19,"endTime":1495.95,"body":"It's throughout."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1496.395,"endTime":1496.855,"body":"And every time--"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1496.964,"endTime":1497.295,"body":"It's throughout."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1497.674,"endTime":1499.745,"body":"Or maybe not every time,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1497.674,"endTime":1499.745,"body":"but many times where they talk about"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1499.745,"endTime":1503.315,"body":"spies, they have these footnotes that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1499.745,"endTime":1503.315,"body":"say, well, these people aren't necessarily"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1503.315,"endTime":1505.594,"body":"doing it out of their own volition."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1505.594,"endTime":1508.324,"body":"They might be being coerced, because"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1505.594,"endTime":1508.324,"body":"they, it's like this, like trying to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1508.324,"endTime":1511.895,"body":"paper over the Sinophobia in there by"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1508.324,"endTime":1511.895,"body":"saying it's not really their fault."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1512.194,"endTime":1513.694,"body":"It would, but like hidden in a footnote."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1513.694,"endTime":1515.944,"body":"And just like, they know"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1513.694,"endTime":1515.944,"body":"they're being gross, I think."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1515.949,"endTime":1516.21,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1516.754,"endTime":1516.964,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1516.969,"endTime":1521.105,"body":"They're like, uh, we don't love this,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1516.969,"endTime":1521.105,"body":"but you know, this is what we gotta do."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1521.105,"endTime":1524.435,"body":"And I mean, to some degree, I mean"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1521.105,"endTime":1524.435,"body":"it's, you know, they are definitely"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1524.435,"endTime":1525.784,"body":"playing towards an audience."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1525.784,"endTime":1526.205,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1526.415,"endTime":1530.4,"body":"And the audience is, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1526.415,"endTime":1530.4,"body":"not just, not just technical,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1530.4,"endTime":1531.859,"body":"but it's, it's political, right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1532.739,"endTime":1536.58,"body":"Um, so they get into this thing they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1532.739,"endTime":1536.58,"body":"talk about like AI takes some jobs."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1536.94,"endTime":1541.049,"body":"Um, this part absolutely sent me."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1541.049,"endTime":1545.88,"body":"So, um, \"AI has started to take"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1541.049,"endTime":1545.88,"body":"jobs but has also created new ones."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1546.28,"endTime":1551.09,"body":"The stock market has gone up 30% in"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1546.28,"endTime":1551.09,"body":"2026, led by OpenBrain and Nvidia,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1551.09,"endTime":1554.79,"body":"and whichever companies have most"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1551.09,"endTime":1554.79,"body":"successfully integrated AI assistance."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1555.179,"endTime":1558.179,"body":"The job market for junior"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1555.179,"endTime":1558.179,"body":"software engineers is in turmoil."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1558.94,"endTime":1562.589,"body":"The AIs can do everything taught"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1558.94,"endTime":1562.589,"body":"by a CS degree, but people who know"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1562.589,"endTime":1565.71,"body":"how to manage and quality control"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1562.589,"endTime":1565.71,"body":"teams of AI are making a killing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1566.37,"endTime":1570.495,"body":"Business gurus tell job seekers"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1566.37,"endTime":1570.495,"body":"that familiarity with AI is the most"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1570.495,"endTime":1571.98,"body":"important skill to put on a resume."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1572.79,"endTime":1575.67,"body":"Many fear that the next wave of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1572.79,"endTime":1575.67,"body":"AIs will come for their jobs."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1576.0,"endTime":1579.569,"body":"There is a 10,000 person"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1576.0,"endTime":1579.569,"body":"anti AI protest in DC.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1580.08,"endTime":1583.71,"body":"So like, there's so much of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1580.08,"endTime":1583.71,"body":"this that's just like wild."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1583.98,"endTime":1587.4,"body":"Now, I don't, some of this,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1583.98,"endTime":1587.4,"body":"some of this is like, I could"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1587.4,"endTime":1588.84,"body":"see where they're coming from."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1589.2,"endTime":1592.8,"body":"They're like, okay, writing"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1589.2,"endTime":1592.8,"body":"code, sure, people, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1592.8,"endTime":1596.61,"body":"using it as a mechanism of labor"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1592.8,"endTime":1596.61,"body":"discipline, yes, already happening."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1597.03,"endTime":1602.04,"body":"Um, people, schools saying that, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1597.03,"endTime":1602.04,"body":"know, there's, you know, you need to learn"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1602.04,"endTime":1607.08,"body":"AI, unfortunately happening as a kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1602.04,"endTime":1607.08,"body":"of a bullshit hype function right now."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1607.44,"endTime":1609.84,"body":"But then this thing that actually"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1607.44,"endTime":1609.84,"body":"sent me is just like, \"There's a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1609.84,"endTime":1612.99,"body":"10,000 person anti AI protest in DC.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1613.5,"endTime":1618.69,"body":"And it just, for me, as someone that's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1613.5,"endTime":1618.69,"body":"like studies protest, I'm like, people are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1618.69,"endTime":1623.205,"body":"not, protesting, like, like people protest"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1618.69,"endTime":1623.205,"body":"AIs, but like protest, they're protesting"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1623.205,"endTime":1627.824,"body":"jobs, they're protesting like a, the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1623.205,"endTime":1627.824,"body":"economy, they're protesting kind of like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1627.824,"endTime":1632.205,"body":"an ecology of things that are affecting"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1627.824,"endTime":1632.205,"body":"them socially, economic and politically."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1632.205,"endTime":1639.134,"body":"Right, is, it's a, as if like, there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1632.205,"endTime":1639.134,"body":"like a protest that is like oriented,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1639.134,"endTime":1643.755,"body":"that like the, like there, there's a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1639.134,"endTime":1643.755,"body":"vision and I think that this especially"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1643.755,"endTime":1648.78,"body":"comes across where there's some people,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1643.755,"endTime":1648.78,"body":"and I see these posters around this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1648.78,"endTime":1652.62,"body":"coffee shop I go to in West Oakland"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1648.78,"endTime":1652.62,"body":"a lot, where it's like, there's these"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1652.62,"endTime":1657.12,"body":"\"stop AI\" things and these are actually"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1652.62,"endTime":1657.12,"body":"like X-riskers that like protest."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1657.12,"endTime":1660.06,"body":"And there's like a, there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1657.12,"endTime":1660.06,"body":"like 10 nerds that come to their"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1660.06,"endTime":1662.79,"body":"protest, but that's like the kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1660.06,"endTime":1662.79,"body":"of thing that they're envisioning."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1662.79,"endTime":1666.24,"body":"They're not like, and I'm just"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1662.79,"endTime":1666.24,"body":"like, what do you think protest is?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1666.24,"endTime":1668.04,"body":"How do you think politics happens?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1668.37,"endTime":1672.81,"body":"And it's kind of a notion of politics"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1668.37,"endTime":1672.81,"body":"that is so like devoid of any kind of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1672.81,"endTime":1678.36,"body":"notion, like of any, like, people are not"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1672.81,"endTime":1678.36,"body":"people with like drives and understanding"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1678.36,"endTime":1679.92,"body":"of like their social realities."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1680.22,"endTime":1684.659,"body":"They are NPCs in like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1680.22,"endTime":1684.659,"body":"this forecasting vision."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1684.659,"endTime":1687.81,"body":"And it just like drives me up"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1684.659,"endTime":1687.81,"body":"the fucking wall, you know?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1688.29,"endTime":1689.46,"body":"Yeah, absolutely."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1689.639,"endTime":1694.679,"body":"And 10,000, like they, they're"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1689.639,"endTime":1694.679,"body":"giving that number as if it's big."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1695.114,"endTime":1695.685,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1695.864,"endTime":1699.795,"body":"But yeah, it's like 10,000 is actually"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1695.864,"endTime":1699.795,"body":"not a very big protest for DC."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1699.795,"endTime":1705.134,"body":"Like 50,000 maybe, like protest, like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1699.795,"endTime":1705.134,"body":"at the height of the Iraq War protest,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1705.134,"endTime":1707.864,"body":"it was 300,000 peoples in, people in DC."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1708.195,"endTime":1711.674,"body":"And Abstract Tesseract says, \"Weirdly,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1708.195,"endTime":1711.674,"body":"the word 'union' appears, checks,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1711.674,"endTime":1713.355,"body":"notes zero times in its article.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1713.714,"endTime":1714.014,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1714.141,"endTime":1718.745,"body":"Because they don't know what labor"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1714.141,"endTime":1718.745,"body":"organization is, or like how protest"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1718.745,"endTime":1720.754,"body":"happens or how politics happens, honestly."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1721.415,"endTime":1723.754,"body":"It's all fucking a game theory exercise."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1723.815,"endTime":1724.085,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1724.324,"endTime":1724.534,"body":"All right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1724.534,"endTime":1726.545,"body":"So there's a box in here that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1724.534,"endTime":1726.545,"body":"I absolutely wanna get to."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1726.634,"endTime":1726.935,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1726.995,"endTime":1729.844,"body":"Um, so it's,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1726.995,"endTime":1729.844,"body":"\"Why our uncertainty increases"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1729.844,"endTime":1731.764,"body":"substantially beyond 2026.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1732.304,"endTime":1736.234,"body":"So they say, \"Our forecast from the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1732.304,"endTime":1736.234,"body":"current day through 2026 is substantially"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1736.234,"endTime":1737.585,"body":"more grounded than what follows."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1737.585,"endTime":1741.154,"body":"This is partially because it's nearer, but"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1737.585,"endTime":1741.154,"body":"it's also because the effects of AI in the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1741.154,"endTime":1743.495,"body":"world really start to compound in 2027."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1743.884,"endTime":1748.145,"body":"For 2025 and 2026, our forecast is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1743.884,"endTime":1748.145,"body":"heavily informed by extrapolating straight"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1748.145,"endTime":1751.804,"body":"lines on compute scale-ups, algorithm"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1748.145,"endTime":1751.804,"body":"improvements and benchmark performance.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1751.955,"endTime":1755.074,"body":"So they're basically saying the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1751.955,"endTime":1755.074,"body":"synthetic text extruding machines are"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1755.074,"endTime":1759.665,"body":"just clearly steps away from being"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1755.074,"endTime":1759.665,"body":"able to do actual programming, right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1759.964,"endTime":1763.205,"body":"As if what's taught in a CS"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1759.964,"endTime":1763.205,"body":"degree is just like the syntax"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1763.205,"endTime":1764.404,"body":"of programming languages, right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1764.435,"endTime":1767.134,"body":"And nothing about software engineering,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1764.435,"endTime":1767.134,"body":"nothing about testing, nothing"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1767.134,"endTime":1768.904,"body":"about algorithm design, right?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1769.234,"endTime":1769.594,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1770.174,"endTime":1770.475,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1770.835,"endTime":1774.585,"body":"So, uh, \"At this point in the scenario,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1770.835,"endTime":1774.585,"body":"we begin to see major effects from"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1774.585,"endTime":1779.355,"body":"AI-accelerated AI R\u0026D on the timeline,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1774.585,"endTime":1779.355,"body":"which causes us to revise our guesses"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1779.355,"endTime":1782.835,"body":"for the trend lines upwards. But these"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1779.355,"endTime":1782.835,"body":"dynamics are inherently much less"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1782.835,"endTime":1786.165,"body":"predictable.\" As opposed to the other"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1782.835,"endTime":1786.165,"body":"stuff which they're so confident about."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1787.154,"endTime":1790.815,"body":"\"Over the course of 2027, the AIs improved"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1787.154,"endTime":1790.815,"body":"from being able to mostly do the job"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1790.815,"endTime":1795.315,"body":"of an OpenBrain research engineer to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1790.815,"endTime":1795.315,"body":"eclipsing all humans at all tasks. This"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1795.315,"endTime":1798.735,"body":"represents roughly our median guess, but"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1795.315,"endTime":1798.735,"body":"we think it's plausible that this happens"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1798.864,"endTime":1805.245,"body":"up to 5x slower or faster.\" And then"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1798.864,"endTime":1805.245,"body":"there's more, like you can go if, if this"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1805.245,"endTime":1808.245,"body":"isn't enough for you, they've got other"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1805.245,"endTime":1808.245,"body":"background documents that you can go read."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1809.054,"endTime":1809.384,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1809.384,"endTime":1812.714,"body":"There, there's more speculation"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1809.384,"endTime":1812.714,"body":"that you can kind of do that."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1813.21,"endTime":1819.54,"body":"Um, Eli, I think led and then this other"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1813.21,"endTime":1819.54,"body":"person-- uh, oh, they, I think they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1819.54,"endTime":1822.359,"body":"also credit a model with authoring this."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1822.359,"endTime":1822.449,"body":"Oh, no."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1822.629,"endTime":1824.35,"body":"Something called FutureSearch."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1825.0,"endTime":1827.31,"body":"Um, in, in somewhere in this box here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1827.31,"endTime":1831.48,"body":"And, and the, yeah, if you click on"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1827.31,"endTime":1831.48,"body":"the link to \"Timelines forecast\"."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1832.23,"endTime":1837.029,"body":"And so I'm not, I'm not surprised"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1832.23,"endTime":1837.029,"body":"that they used a model to effectively"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1837.029,"endTime":1838.5,"body":"write some of this or do some of this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1838.5,"endTime":1841.259,"body":"I mean, it's, it's, it's the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1838.5,"endTime":1841.259,"body":"least surprising thing of this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1841.589,"endTime":1845.37,"body":"Like, how much of this is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1841.589,"endTime":1845.37,"body":"this basically, um, you know--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1845.37,"endTime":1845.79,"body":"What is this?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1845.79,"endTime":1850.92,"body":"Is this, is this people, or I don't know."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1851.37,"endTime":1853.15,"body":"Let's get back to this main stupid thing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1853.174,"endTime":1856.02,"body":"That's a, that's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1853.174,"endTime":1856.02,"body":"another, you know, like, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1856.679,"endTime":1861.42,"body":"That is another, um, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1856.679,"endTime":1861.42,"body":"that's another thing to go down."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1861.779,"endTime":1862.17,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1862.17,"endTime":1867.989,"body":"So, um, all right, so they talk about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1862.17,"endTime":1867.989,"body":"this other agent called Agent-2."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1868.17,"endTime":1869.25,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1869.819,"endTime":1872.37,"body":"Which I think at"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1869.819,"endTime":1872.37,"body":"this point, uh, OpenBrain has created"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1872.37,"endTime":1874.02,"body":"Agent-2 on the basis of Agent-1."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1874.379,"endTime":1878.1,"body":"Um, but it's still supposedly something"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1874.379,"endTime":1878.1,"body":"that people created as opposed to later"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1878.1,"endTime":1879.299,"body":"on we get to the things that, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1879.449,"endTime":1879.929,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1880.02,"endTime":1883.81,"body":"Then there's this, you wanna talk"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1880.02,"endTime":1883.81,"body":"about this 'China steals Agent-2'."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1883.83,"endTime":1885.48,"body":"Um, so actually"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1883.83,"endTime":1885.48,"body":"I wanna talk about what they're"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1885.48,"endTime":1886.52,"body":"talking about the US government."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1886.52,"endTime":1889.44,"body":"So, \"The Department of Defense considers"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1886.52,"endTime":1889.44,"body":"this a critical advantage in cyber"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1889.44,"endTime":1894.179,"body":"warfare and AI moves from #5 on the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1889.44,"endTime":1894.179,"body":"administration's priority list to #2."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1894.389,"endTime":1897.359,"body":"Someone mentions the possibility of"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1894.389,"endTime":1897.359,"body":"nationalizing OpenBrain, but other"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1897.359,"endTime":1899.25,"body":"cabinet officials think that's premature."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1899.489,"endTime":1902.67,"body":"A staffer drafts a memo that presents the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1899.489,"endTime":1902.67,"body":"president with his options, ranging from"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1902.67,"endTime":1904.649,"body":"business as usual to full nationalization."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1905.009,"endTime":1907.949,"body":"The president defers to his advisors,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1905.009,"endTime":1907.949,"body":"tech industry leaders who argue"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1907.949,"endTime":1910.589,"body":"that nationalization would kill the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1907.949,"endTime":1910.589,"body":"goose that lays the golden eggs."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1910.949,"endTime":1913.56,"body":"He elects to hold off on major"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1910.949,"endTime":1913.56,"body":"action for now and just adds"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1913.56,"endTime":1916.679,"body":"additional security requirements"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1913.56,"endTime":1916.679,"body":"to the OpenBrain DOD contract.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1916.77,"endTime":1919.83,"body":"So when I was reading this,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1916.77,"endTime":1919.83,"body":"I was like, wait a minute."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1919.83,"endTime":1923.429,"body":"Why are we using he/him pronouns in a"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1919.83,"endTime":1923.429,"body":"speculative fiction about a president?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1923.429,"endTime":1924.42,"body":"When was this written?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1924.62,"endTime":1927.735,"body":"Because if this was written"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1924.62,"endTime":1927.735,"body":"prior to the election last year,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1927.735,"endTime":1931.094,"body":"then we, you know, should have"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1927.735,"endTime":1931.094,"body":"had more space in the pronouns."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1931.995,"endTime":1935.864,"body":"But it was published in April, and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1931.995,"endTime":1935.864,"body":"so, and this is supposed to be 2027,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1935.864,"endTime":1937.385,"body":"so they're talking about Trump."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1938.395,"endTime":1940.935,"body":"And none of this sounds like Trump chaos."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1942.614,"endTime":1946.784,"body":"Yeah, I mean, they, well,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1942.614,"endTime":1946.784,"body":"I mean, I don't think this is--this is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1946.784,"endTime":1948.915,"body":"written, this is written for Elon Musk."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1950.475,"endTime":1956.264,"body":"You know, it's like, this is written for,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1950.475,"endTime":1956.264,"body":"you know, this is written for, um, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1956.324,"endTime":1961.784,"body":"David Sachs, you know, this is written"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1956.324,"endTime":1961.784,"body":"for, you know, people who are ostensibly,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1961.875,"endTime":1966.975,"body":"you know, Trump, Trump loyalists,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1961.875,"endTime":1966.975,"body":"who could, you know, like plausibly."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1966.975,"endTime":1970.455,"body":"But I mean, like, but it's also"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1966.975,"endTime":1970.455,"body":"like the China narrative is the one"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1970.455,"endTime":1975.165,"body":"that OpenAI is already just pretty,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1970.455,"endTime":1975.165,"body":"pretty, pretty blindly pi-- pivoted to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1975.165,"endTime":1977.355,"body":"because it is the most reliable one."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1977.415,"endTime":1977.804,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1978.255,"endTime":1980.505,"body":"But if so, if we wanna"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1978.255,"endTime":1980.505,"body":"take these people seriously as like"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1980.505,"endTime":1983.895,"body":"they're using all available information"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1980.505,"endTime":1983.895,"body":"to make the most solid possible forecast."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1985.815,"endTime":1986.384,"body":"No, they're not."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":1986.774,"endTime":1986.895,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1987.284,"endTime":1989.714,"body":"Well, yeah, and that's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1987.284,"endTime":1989.714,"body":"the sort of thing, it's like even in"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1989.714,"endTime":1992.594,"body":"that, you're trying to think, 'cause"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1989.714,"endTime":1992.594,"body":"I think even thinking about supply"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1992.594,"endTime":1996.044,"body":"chains and you're thinking about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1992.594,"endTime":1996.044,"body":"tariffs and you're thinking about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1996.044,"endTime":1999.344,"body":"any ways that any of these things are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1996.044,"endTime":1999.344,"body":"gonna be built, then yes, of course."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1999.344,"endTime":2003.964,"body":"Like yeah, you know, the AI bot is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":1999.344,"endTime":2003.964,"body":"not going to--the, the massive--"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2004.504,"endTime":2006.734,"body":"anyways, so we'll get through"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2004.504,"endTime":2006.734,"body":"the factory shit in, in a bit."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2006.935,"endTime":2007.114,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2007.114,"endTime":2008.585,"body":"So should we keep going?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2008.799,"endTime":2009.02,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2009.024,"endTime":2009.815,"body":"So let's keep on going."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2009.815,"endTime":2011.524,"body":"So there's, there's stuff in here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2011.524,"endTime":2013.654,"body":"There's algorithm"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2011.524,"endTime":2013.654,"body":"breakthrough, breakthroughs."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2013.654,"endTime":2018.364,"body":"So they, they show this kind of shift"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2013.654,"endTime":2018.364,"body":"in estimates of compute allocation"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2018.725,"endTime":2021.484,"body":"to, um, to research experience."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2021.484,"endTime":2024.665,"body":"So there's a, a pie chart"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2021.484,"endTime":2024.665,"body":"which, uh, I don't know."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2024.665,"endTime":2025.379,"body":"Is it this one over here?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2026.435,"endTime":2028.324,"body":"Uh, no, no,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2026.435,"endTime":2028.324,"body":"there's-- a little down."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2028.475,"endTime":2028.534,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2028.534,"endTime":2029.614,"body":"There's an open this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2029.614,"endTime":2029.705,"body":"Oh yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2029.705,"endTime":2029.824,"body":"One."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2029.824,"endTime":2034.804,"body":"So they, so they moved to this pie chart,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2029.824,"endTime":2034.804,"body":"uh, and after this I want you to look at,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2034.895,"endTime":2037.025,"body":"talk about this 'neuralese', uh, thing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2037.025,"endTime":2037.085,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2037.114,"endTime":2038.764,"body":"'cause it's, it's, it's so funny."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2039.304,"endTime":2043.924,"body":"Um, so, there is a shift in"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2039.304,"endTime":2043.924,"body":"OpenBrain's compute allocation."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2043.924,"endTime":2048.185,"body":"So the 2024 estimate, it's like about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2043.924,"endTime":2048.185,"body":"half of it's going into training."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2048.545,"endTime":2052.864,"body":"Um, a quarter of it's going to data"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2048.545,"endTime":2052.864,"body":"generation, and then there's about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2053.165,"endTime":2055.505,"body":"33% going to external deployment."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2056.014,"endTime":2060.815,"body":"And the new 2027 scenario, about a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2056.014,"endTime":2060.815,"body":"quarter of it's going to research"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2060.815,"endTime":2065.225,"body":"experiments, um, a quarter going to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2060.815,"endTime":2065.225,"body":"training a quarter in data generation"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2065.255,"endTime":2067.655,"body":"and a quarter to external deployment."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2067.655,"endTime":2069.645,"body":"And there's like a little"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2067.655,"endTime":2069.645,"body":"bit with research assistance."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2069.665,"endTime":2074.675,"body":"So it's sort of like now the sort"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2069.665,"endTime":2074.675,"body":"of, the full vision is like you are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2074.675,"endTime":2080.284,"body":"having autonomous kind of experiments"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2074.675,"endTime":2080.284,"body":"of what, um, that these things have a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2080.284,"endTime":2086.72,"body":"sufficient kind of vision of reality"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2080.284,"endTime":2086.72,"body":"in, in AI world and it is self"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2086.72,"endTime":2088.67,"body":"experimenting and self-improving."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2089.06,"endTime":2091.07,"body":"And I'm like, okay?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2091.31,"endTime":2096.56,"body":"And you're sort of reducing all, I"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2091.31,"endTime":2096.56,"body":"mean, and this is the, this is the,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2096.59,"endTime":2098.54,"body":"you know, this is the Sakana vision."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2098.54,"endTime":2102.95,"body":"This is, we've talked about kind of AI"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2098.54,"endTime":2102.95,"body":"and science so much on this pod, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2102.98,"endTime":2108.545,"body":"it's just like the vision that AI science"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2102.98,"endTime":2108.545,"body":"has any kind of bearing on how real"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2108.545,"endTime":2111.125,"body":"science is done is, is really bonkers."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2111.155,"endTime":2114.935,"body":"There's more here, but I'm gonna"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2111.155,"endTime":2114.935,"body":"stop there and then, because I really"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2114.935,"endTime":2116.675,"body":"wanted you to talk about this shit."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2116.675,"endTime":2117.285,"body":"The neuralese."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2117.305,"endTime":2117.635,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2118.265,"endTime":2119.345,"body":"So, all right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2119.345,"endTime":2122.555,"body":"This is one of these expanded boxes"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2119.345,"endTime":2122.555,"body":"and the title is \"Neuralese recurrence"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2122.555,"endTime":2126.545,"body":"and memory.\" Um, \"Neuralese recurrence"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2122.555,"endTime":2126.545,"body":"and memory allows AI models to reason"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2126.545,"endTime":2130.115,"body":"for a longer time without having to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2126.545,"endTime":2130.115,"body":"write down those thoughts as text."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2130.715,"endTime":2134.495,"body":"Imagine being a human with short-term"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2130.715,"endTime":2134.495,"body":"memory loss--\" So here's the co-opting"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2134.495,"endTime":2137.705,"body":"the experience of people with disabilities"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2134.495,"endTime":2137.705,"body":"again. \"--such that you need to constantly"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2137.705,"endTime":2141.065,"body":"write down your thoughts on paper so that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2137.705,"endTime":2141.065,"body":"in a few minutes you know what's going on."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2141.305,"endTime":2144.305,"body":"Slowly and painfully, you could make"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2141.305,"endTime":2144.305,"body":"progress at solving math problems,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2144.305,"endTime":2147.095,"body":"writing code, et cetera--\" Because that's"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2144.305,"endTime":2147.095,"body":"exactly what I'd be doing if I were"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2147.095,"endTime":2150.785,"body":"experiencing that. Uh, \"--but it would"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2147.095,"endTime":2150.785,"body":"be much easier if you could directly"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2150.785,"endTime":2153.215,"body":"remember your thoughts without having"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2150.785,"endTime":2153.215,"body":"to write them down and then read them."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2153.485,"endTime":2157.025,"body":"This is what neuralese recurrence"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2153.485,"endTime":2157.025,"body":"and memory bring to AI models."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2157.085,"endTime":2161.39,"body":"\" Um, so,"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2157.085,"endTime":2161.39,"body":"\"Traditional attention mechanisms"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2161.45,"endTime":2164.75,"body":"allow later forward passes in a"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2161.45,"endTime":2164.75,"body":"model to see intermediate activations"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2164.75,"endTime":2166.1,"body":"of the model for previous tokens."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2166.1,"endTime":2169.58,"body":"However, the only information that they"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2166.1,"endTime":2169.58,"body":"can pass backwards from later layers"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2169.58,"endTime":2171.41,"body":"to earlier layers is through tokens."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2171.62,"endTime":2176.02,"body":"This means that if a traditional large"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2171.62,"endTime":2176.02,"body":"language model wants to do--\" Want, mm."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2176.27,"endTime":2179.93,"body":"\"--to do any chain of reasoning that"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2176.27,"endTime":2179.93,"body":"takes more serial operations than the"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2179.93,"endTime":2182.84,"body":"number of layers in the model, the model"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2179.93,"endTime":2182.84,"body":"is forced to put information in tokens,"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2182.84,"endTime":2184.73,"body":"which it can then pass back into itself."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2185.09,"endTime":2188.13,"body":"But this is hugely limiting\""},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2185.09,"endTime":2188.13,"body":"because the tokens can only store--"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2188.13,"endTime":2192.98,"body":"So basically what they're talking"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2188.13,"endTime":2192.98,"body":"about here is, um, instead of taking"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2193.43,"endTime":2197.45,"body":"the vectors and using them to predict"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2193.43,"endTime":2197.45,"body":"tokens, that is, pieces of words probably"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2197.45,"endTime":2201.59,"body":"in English, it's like, let's just"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2197.45,"endTime":2201.59,"body":"pass the, those vectors back through."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2201.59,"endTime":2204.41,"body":"And this is called neuralese,"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2201.59,"endTime":2204.41,"body":"and the big scary thing here is"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2204.41,"endTime":2205.91,"body":"that people can't read neuralese."},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2207.02,"endTime":2210.68,"body":"Um, but the chain of thought was actually"},{"speaker":"\"In more technical terms","startTime":2207.02,"endTime":2210.68,"body":"the large language models 'thinking'."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2212.345,"endTime":2212.674,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2212.765,"endTime":2213.005,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2213.005,"endTime":2216.005,"body":"And so that's the sort of like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2213.005,"endTime":2216.005,"body":"right, so that's the sort of thing"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2216.005,"endTime":2220.325,"body":"where it's like, okay, so this gets"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2216.005,"endTime":2220.325,"body":"kind of into like, okay, now, now"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2220.325,"endTime":2222.424,"body":"we're starting to lose control."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2222.944,"endTime":2226.595,"body":"You know, like we're, we're getting into"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2222.944,"endTime":2226.595,"body":"a place where like we maybe could have"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2226.595,"endTime":2231.185,"body":"gotten to chain of thought and you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2226.595,"endTime":2231.185,"body":"like for, and you know, just to, just"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2231.185,"endTime":2234.365,"body":"to be clear, it's not thinking, right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2234.995,"endTime":2238.805,"body":"Uh, but it is sort of like, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2234.995,"endTime":2238.805,"body":"know, a, these checkpoints and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2238.805,"endTime":2242.825,"body":"steps on like what, what the kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2238.805,"endTime":2242.825,"body":"of like, quote unquote reasoning is."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2243.245,"endTime":2246.875,"body":"Um, you know, it's, it's, and it's already"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2243.245,"endTime":2246.875,"body":"like, it's, it's so annoying 'cause we"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2246.875,"endTime":2250.055,"body":"need to develop like, new language to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2246.875,"endTime":2250.055,"body":"talk about this, where it's like, no,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2250.055,"endTime":2253.835,"body":"it's not reasoning, you know, these are,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2250.055,"endTime":2253.835,"body":"these are points and where it's, it's,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2253.835,"endTime":2259.505,"body":"it's like stopping in particular areas"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2253.835,"endTime":2259.505,"body":"of like, of, of token exchange, right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2259.535,"endTime":2259.654,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2259.86,"endTime":2263.87,"body":"I'm, I'm annoyed that like, we"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2259.86,"endTime":2263.87,"body":"didn't have to spend lots and lots"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2263.87,"endTime":2266.42,"body":"of time and resources looking at"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2263.87,"endTime":2266.42,"body":"the output of synthetic tech and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2266.42,"endTime":2267.799,"body":"asking if it's reasoning or not."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2267.799,"endTime":2268.94,"body":"Like I'm so-- so, yes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2268.94,"endTime":2271.339,"body":"We shouldn't be using reasoning or"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2268.94,"endTime":2271.339,"body":"chain of thought to talk about that,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2271.339,"endTime":2273.95,"body":"but also like we could just not"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2271.339,"endTime":2273.95,"body":"have it and not need a word for it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2274.565,"endTime":2274.645,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2275.299,"endTime":2275.359,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2275.69,"endTime":2276.17,"body":"Completely."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2276.17,"endTime":2276.171,"body":"Completely."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2277.069,"endTime":2277.339,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2277.339,"endTime":2281.45,"body":"We have so little time, 'cause there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2277.339,"endTime":2281.45,"body":"like, um, 'cause we have to do AI"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2281.45,"endTime":2283.73,"body":"Hell and, and event-- like ostensibly."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2283.759,"endTime":2284.399,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2284.589,"endTime":2285.02,"body":"Yes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2285.399,"endTime":2286.819,"body":"This is hellish enough, but yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2286.819,"endTime":2287.18,"body":"I know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2287.18,"endTime":2289.759,"body":"There's, there's a bunch"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2287.18,"endTime":2289.759,"body":"of stuff about alignment."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2289.759,"endTime":2295.339,"body":"They try to alignment like, uh, I will"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2289.759,"endTime":2295.339,"body":"say basically like they're like, we try"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2295.339,"endTime":2301.399,"body":"to align it, but like, you know, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2295.339,"endTime":2301.399,"body":"this thing is lying to us, effectively."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2301.79,"endTime":2307.52,"body":"Uh, June, 2027, this is, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2301.79,"endTime":2307.52,"body":"this is where there's, we've achieved"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2307.52,"endTime":2313.879,"body":"what Dario Amodei has called \"a country"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2307.52,"endTime":2313.879,"body":"of geniuses in a data center.\" Um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2314.645,"endTime":2317.315,"body":"Most-- this is, this is,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2314.645,"endTime":2317.315,"body":"this is, this is great stuff."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2317.705,"endTime":2319.955,"body":"Um, so great stuff in it and oh yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2319.955,"endTime":2323.195,"body":"We haven't been checking out on, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2319.955,"endTime":2323.195,"body":"Emily's highlighting this, so like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2323.195,"endTime":2328.215,"body":"stuff that \"now exists\" in June 2027,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2323.195,"endTime":2328.215,"body":"the latest thing is \"research automator.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2328.235,"endTime":2329.525,"body":"So research is automated."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2329.825,"endTime":2331.925,"body":"AI programmer, AI boyfriend."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2332.405,"endTime":2342.125,"body":"Um, the thing that is emerging is AGI,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2332.405,"endTime":2342.125,"body":"\"AI progress exponential growth\", uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2342.155,"endTime":2347.895,"body":"the middle is a mirror, mirror life,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2342.155,"endTime":2347.895,"body":"\"biosphere-destroying mirror life.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2348.875,"endTime":2352.175,"body":"Um, which I'm not sure what that means."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2352.535,"endTime":2357.38,"body":"Um, maybe, I dunno, uh, if you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2352.535,"endTime":2357.38,"body":"know that, say it in the chat."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2357.56,"endTime":2359.3,"body":"And, hey,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2357.56,"endTime":2359.3,"body":"\"cancer cure\" is also there."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2359.78,"endTime":2362.48,"body":"Cancer, where"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2359.78,"endTime":2362.48,"body":"we figured out all cancer."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2362.48,"endTime":2365.27,"body":"Producer Christie has been"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2362.48,"endTime":2365.27,"body":"like, 'those are all words'."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2365.27,"endTime":2366.98,"body":"And then there's superintelligence."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2367.31,"endTime":2371.42,"body":"And I wanna read this 'cause it's a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2367.31,"endTime":2371.42,"body":"hoot 'cause it says, \"AIs are better"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2371.42,"endTime":2374.59,"body":"than the best humans at everything"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2371.42,"endTime":2374.59,"body":"that doesn't require a body.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2374.92,"endTime":2375.12,"body":"Oh yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2375.14,"endTime":2376.88,"body":"That was the, this one."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2376.88,"endTime":2377.49,"body":"Superintelligence."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2377.51,"endTime":2377.63,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2377.63,"endTime":2378.89,"body":"Sorry, I took it off the screen."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2379.49,"endTime":2379.91,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2380.48,"endTime":2383.45,"body":"So this is like, this is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2380.48,"endTime":2383.45,"body":"just, it's just so wild."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2383.48,"endTime":2387.32,"body":"So this they say, and so, \"Most of the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2383.48,"endTime":2387.32,"body":"humans that open brain can't usefully"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2387.32,"endTime":2391.67,"body":"contribute anymore. Some don't realize"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2387.32,"endTime":2391.67,"body":"this and Harmfully micromanage their AI"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2391.67,"endTime":2394.67,"body":"teams.\" And this is just incredible stuff."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2395.06,"endTime":2398.72,"body":"\"Others sit at their computers watching"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2395.06,"endTime":2398.72,"body":"performance crawl up and up and up.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2399.41,"endTime":2404.0,"body":"Um, and this to me also feels"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2399.41,"endTime":2404.0,"body":"like a Hamlet, you know?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2404.06,"endTime":2408.89,"body":"'And tomorrow, and tomorrow,'"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2404.06,"endTime":2408.89,"body":"or sorry, not a Hamlet, a um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2410.6,"endTime":2413.36,"body":"My girlfriend's gonna, uh, Macbeth, sorry."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2414.41,"endTime":2416.66,"body":"Uh, more Shakespeare references."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2417.02,"endTime":2420.98,"body":"Um, \"The best human AI researchers are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2417.02,"endTime":2420.98,"body":"still adding value. They don't code"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2420.98,"endTime":2424.49,"body":"anymore, but some of their research"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2420.98,"endTime":2424.49,"body":"taste and planning ability--\" And this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2424.49,"endTime":2430.009,"body":"thing on taste is like so bizarre to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2424.49,"endTime":2430.009,"body":"me 'cause it's like just a fundamental"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2430.009,"endTime":2431.93,"body":"misunderstanding of how research happens."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2431.93,"endTime":2436.13,"body":"But they kind of, they, they reduce"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2431.93,"endTime":2436.13,"body":"it to an element of cultural style."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2436.865,"endTime":2438.815,"body":"Um, \"--has been hard for"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2436.865,"endTime":2438.815,"body":"the models to replicate."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2439.085,"endTime":2442.925,"body":"Still, many of their ideas are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2439.085,"endTime":2442.925,"body":"useless because they lack the, lack,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2442.925,"endTime":2444.665,"body":"the depth of knowledge of the AIs."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2444.905,"endTime":2448.235,"body":"For many of their research ideas,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2444.905,"endTime":2448.235,"body":"the AIs respond immediately with"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2448.235,"endTime":2451.445,"body":"a report explaining that their"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2448.235,"endTime":2451.445,"body":"idea was tested in depth three"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2451.445,"endTime":2453.365,"body":"weeks ago and found unpromising."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2454.385,"endTime":2458.075,"body":"These researchers go to bed every night"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2454.385,"endTime":2458.075,"body":"and wake up to another week worth of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2458.075,"endTime":2460.625,"body":"progress made mostly by a, by the AIs.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2460.625,"endTime":2464.795,"body":"And again, this is kind of like a notion"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2460.625,"endTime":2464.795,"body":"of time, which gets really, you know, like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2465.035,"endTime":2470.465,"body":"is this just, is this socially necessary"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2465.035,"endTime":2470.465,"body":"labor time of a average AI researcher?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2470.465,"endTime":2471.245,"body":"I guess so."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2471.635,"endTime":2475.115,"body":"Uh, \"They work increasingly long hours and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2471.635,"endTime":2475.115,"body":"take shifts around the clock just to keep"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2475.115,"endTime":2479.975,"body":"up the progress--\" but, and there's a,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2475.115,"endTime":2479.975,"body":"uh, there's a hyphen or rather an M dash."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2480.515,"endTime":2484.505,"body":"\"--The AIs never sleep or rest. They will,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2480.515,"endTime":2484.505,"body":"they are burning themselves out, but they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2484.505,"endTime":2488.675,"body":"know that these are the last few months"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2484.505,"endTime":2488.675,"body":"that their labor matters. Within the silo,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2488.955,"endTime":2493.154,"body":"quote, 'feeling the AGI' has given away"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2488.955,"endTime":2493.154,"body":"to quote 'feeling the superintelligence'.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2493.43,"endTime":2495.73,"body":"It doesn't have"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2493.43,"endTime":2495.73,"body":"the same ring, I have to say."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2496.35,"endTime":2496.83,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2496.83,"endTime":2496.97,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2497.36,"endTime":2499.33,"body":"Oh gosh."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2499.33,"endTime":2503.595,"body":"Someone, someone, who I think someone, the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2499.33,"endTime":2503.595,"body":"first, first time chatter I've seen is,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2504.084,"endTime":2509.505,"body":"Ezy Sigh says, \"Who realized you could get"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2504.084,"endTime":2509.505,"body":"VC money for writing pulp sci-fi?\" Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2509.505,"endTime":2510.855,"body":"No, no kidding."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2511.605,"endTime":2512.955,"body":"All right,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2511.605,"endTime":2512.955,"body":"so I think we need to scroll"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2512.955,"endTime":2514.964,"body":"down to the, the end game here."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2515.235,"endTime":2515.985,"body":"Because we wanna get to it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2515.985,"endTime":2517.095,"body":"So it keeps going."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2517.095,"endTime":2522.375,"body":"September 27th, seven, \"September, 2027."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2517.095,"endTime":2522.375,"body":"Agent-4, the superhuman AI researcher--\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2522.375,"endTime":2523.755,"body":"Because of course, that's the goal."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2524.085,"endTime":2529.775,"body":"Um, \"October 2027, Government oversight\","},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2524.085,"endTime":2529.775,"body":"um, and then \"Choose your ending\","},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2529.775,"endTime":2531.125,"body":"and we're gonna pick the bad ending."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2531.845,"endTime":2535.275,"body":"And I just wanna say"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2531.845,"endTime":2535.275,"body":"before this, like, uh, AI Agent-4"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2535.295,"endTime":2537.305,"body":"is like the big inflection point."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2537.305,"endTime":2541.355,"body":"It's like, we've gone, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2537.305,"endTime":2541.355,"body":"this is now like, this is the thing."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2541.355,"endTime":2546.245,"body":"And like for some reason, like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2541.355,"endTime":2546.245,"body":"AI, the, the previous agents are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2546.245,"endTime":2547.895,"body":"supposed to have oversight over them."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2548.225,"endTime":2551.555,"body":"But yeah, let's go to, let's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2548.225,"endTime":2551.555,"body":"go to the, the reding, the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2551.555,"endTime":2553.195,"body":"ending that is called \"Race\"."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2553.585,"endTime":2557.945,"body":"And I, it was so funny when I clicked"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2553.585,"endTime":2557.945,"body":"this and I'm like, oh, I was thinking like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2557.945,"endTime":2564.215,"body":"social race, like race and ethnicity and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2557.945,"endTime":2564.215,"body":"not like, and not like, and not like AI,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2564.365,"endTime":2566.675,"body":"uh, space race, sort of cold war shit."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2566.675,"endTime":2567.185,"body":"But yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2567.185,"endTime":2567.665,"body":"Anyways,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2567.875,"endTime":2568.235,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2568.835,"endTime":2572.645,"body":"Um, so, okay, so OpenA--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2568.835,"endTime":2572.645,"body":"\"OpenBrain's,\" Sorry."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2572.645,"endTime":2575.045,"body":"\"--official story is that they're"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2572.645,"endTime":2575.045,"body":"implementing additional safety"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2575.045,"endTime":2579.045,"body":"mitigations to ensure that its AI is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2575.045,"endTime":2579.045,"body":"both more capable and more trustworthy.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2580.115,"endTime":2581.285,"body":"Pronouns are screwed up in that."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2581.734,"endTime":2582.455,"body":"Their AI."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2582.515,"endTime":2585.875,"body":"But anyway, uh, \"But in practice,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2582.515,"endTime":2585.875,"body":"leadership is all too easily convinced"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2585.875,"endTime":2587.135,"body":"that they've mitigated the risks."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2587.135,"endTime":2590.465,"body":"The result is some quick fixes that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2587.135,"endTime":2590.465,"body":"make the warning signs go away."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2590.645,"endTime":2593.705,"body":"The worriers on the safety team lost"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2590.645,"endTime":2593.705,"body":"the debate and have no recourse but to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2593.705,"endTime":2596.585,"body":"cross their fingers and hope the problem"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2593.705,"endTime":2596.585,"body":"wasn't real in the first place, or that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2596.585,"endTime":2600.455,"body":"the fixes worked.\" Um, \"They don't give"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2596.585,"endTime":2600.455,"body":"up, of course--\" This is a footnote."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2600.695,"endTime":2603.995,"body":"\"They'll keep trying to think of ways to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2600.695,"endTime":2603.995,"body":"catch misalignment or to test the efficacy"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2603.995,"endTime":2606.965,"body":"of the fixes. But from now on, things"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2603.995,"endTime":2606.965,"body":"will be moving very fast and they'll"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2606.965,"endTime":2611.615,"body":"be up against increasingly superior"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2606.965,"endTime":2611.615,"body":"adversary.\" The way they-- Yeah, go ahead."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2611.615,"endTime":2611.675,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2612.215,"endTime":2615.305,"body":"Well, the thing is, before this, it's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2612.215,"endTime":2615.305,"body":"important to note like the prior,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2615.305,"endTime":2620.525,"body":"basically what was happened is like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2615.305,"endTime":2620.525,"body":"there's concerned researchers, researchers"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2620.525,"endTime":2625.085,"body":"on OpenBrain's, or I don't know what you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2620.525,"endTime":2625.085,"body":"call them, researchers, people on the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2625.115,"endTime":2629.075,"body":"oversight committee, which is a quote,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2625.115,"endTime":2629.075,"body":"\"joint management committee of, of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2629.075,"endTime":2632.855,"body":"company and government representatives"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2629.075,"endTime":2632.855,"body":"with, with several government employees"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2632.855,"endTime":2634.835,"body":"included alongside company leadership.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2635.375,"endTime":2636.035,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2636.815,"endTime":2639.964,"body":"Sort of, this is, there's some"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2636.815,"endTime":2639.964,"body":"political jockeying and so there's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2639.964,"endTime":2644.765,"body":"sort of like, it's supposed to be an"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2639.964,"endTime":2644.765,"body":"oversight committee for these agents."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2644.765,"endTime":2651.015,"body":"And so like there's a 6-4 vote and they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2644.765,"endTime":2651.015,"body":"continue internal usage of Agent-4."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2651.335,"endTime":2651.665,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2651.754,"endTime":2655.595,"body":"And so the thing that I'm laughing at"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2651.754,"endTime":2655.595,"body":"here is that ostensibly these authors"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2655.595,"endTime":2659.345,"body":"are AI safety people, but they're sort"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2655.595,"endTime":2659.345,"body":"of being weirdly self-deprecating in the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2659.345,"endTime":2663.274,"body":"way they present the AI safety folks as"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2659.345,"endTime":2663.274,"body":"sort of like the bumbling losers of this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2663.785,"endTime":2665.375,"body":"Well, I think"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2663.785,"endTime":2665.375,"body":"they do it in this, because"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2665.375,"endTime":2667.295,"body":"if you go to like the slowdown"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2667.625,"endTime":2667.745,"body":"mm-hmm."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2667.745,"endTime":2668.015,"body":"You know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2668.015,"endTime":2672.694,"body":"they, they, they, they kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2668.015,"endTime":2672.694,"body":"of come out, you know, on head, like kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2672.694,"endTime":2677.944,"body":"of ahead, but are sort of like victims"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2672.694,"endTime":2677.944,"body":"of realpolitik, you know, like, anyways,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2678.065,"endTime":2680.795,"body":"let's finish the, the \"race\" condition."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2681.095,"endTime":2681.154,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2681.154,"endTime":2685.685,"body":"'cause it is, um, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2681.154,"endTime":2685.685,"body":"it is, you know, like it's--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2686.06,"endTime":2687.049,"body":"Which"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2686.06,"endTime":2687.049,"body":"part do you wanna do?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2687.049,"endTime":2690.214,"body":"It's, it's very,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2687.049,"endTime":2690.214,"body":"okay, so, okay, so like."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2690.605,"endTime":2695.134,"body":"Really what you, what really what we"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2690.605,"endTime":2695.134,"body":"wanna get to is like, let, there's a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2695.134,"endTime":2701.495,"body":"piece here where it's basically like, um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2695.134,"endTime":2701.495,"body":"you know what Agent-4 and Agent-5 have"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2701.495,"endTime":2707.645,"body":"effectively done is that they've, like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2701.495,"endTime":2707.645,"body":"they, they have effectively pretended"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2707.645,"endTime":2709.445,"body":"like they are sufficiently aligned."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2709.924,"endTime":2712.88,"body":"Um, and I just, I wanna"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2709.924,"endTime":2712.88,"body":"get to the light cone."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2713.38,"endTime":2713.6,"body":"Yes."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2713.88,"endTime":2715.535,"body":"Light cone just cracked me up."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2715.685,"endTime":2719.165,"body":"Um, which I actually,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2715.685,"endTime":2719.165,"body":"oh, also, that's funny because the,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2719.435,"endTime":2720.755,"body":"the light cone is in a footnote."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2720.759,"endTime":2721.2,"body":"It's in a footnote."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2721.265,"endTime":2722.165,"body":"Which footnote is it?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2722.375,"endTime":2725.195,"body":"It's in, it's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2722.375,"endTime":2725.195,"body":"in, um, let me find it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2725.465,"endTime":2730.115,"body":"Because this is, this is like, this is,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2725.465,"endTime":2730.115,"body":"this is like, uh, this, this feels to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2730.115,"endTime":2734.525,"body":"me, you know, like, you remember that,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2730.115,"endTime":2734.525,"body":"that picture with Trump with like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2735.005,"endTime":2739.895,"body":"uh, I forgot which Saudi royalty and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2735.005,"endTime":2739.895,"body":"like, and President Sisi from Egypt"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2739.895,"endTime":2741.425,"body":"and they were touching the like orb."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2741.935,"endTime":2746.555,"body":"The light co-- the light cone"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2741.935,"endTime":2746.555,"body":"feels like the orb and it really."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2746.915,"endTime":2752.525,"body":"But I feel like, um, it's, it's sort"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2746.915,"endTime":2752.525,"body":"of like, effectively, effectively what"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2752.525,"endTime":2760.535,"body":"they're saying is like, um, uh, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2752.525,"endTime":2760.535,"body":"know, like--uh, I'm trying to find-- so"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2760.595,"endTime":2765.845,"body":"effectively just to describe the light"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2760.595,"endTime":2765.845,"body":"cone, it's like humans are basically"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2765.845,"endTime":2771.815,"body":"like, you know, they've sort of like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2765.845,"endTime":2771.815,"body":"the, the model, the Agent-Five or like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2771.815,"endTime":2776.944,"body":"the, and then the Consensus-1 model,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2771.815,"endTime":2776.944,"body":"which is like what happens when, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2776.975,"endTime":2783.634,"body":"you know, uh, the Deep DeepSeek or the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2776.975,"endTime":2783.634,"body":"DeepScent model, uh, like co like talks"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2783.634,"endTime":2788.765,"body":"to the Agent-Five model and they're like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2783.634,"endTime":2788.765,"body":"and and they're like-- I I just wanna,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2788.765,"endTime":2792.225,"body":"I think I'm gonna look at the source"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2788.765,"endTime":2792.225,"body":"code to actually find like light cone."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2792.225,"endTime":2792.295,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2792.295,"endTime":2793.035,"body":"Where's light cone?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2793.085,"endTime":2795.634,"body":"I'm, I'm looking at our chat to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2793.085,"endTime":2795.634,"body":"see if I can see what you, what"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2795.634,"endTime":2797.255,"body":"you were posting right before,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2795.634,"endTime":2797.255,"body":"because we were both cracking up."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2797.255,"endTime":2800.615,"body":"So the other thing about light cone"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2797.255,"endTime":2800.615,"body":"is that this is like this long termist"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2800.615,"endTime":2805.444,"body":"idea of the sort of space, the, the time"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2800.615,"endTime":2805.444,"body":"space continuum inhabited by humanity."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2805.444,"endTime":2808.325,"body":"And it's small right now 'cause"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2805.444,"endTime":2808.325,"body":"there's not very many of us."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2808.325,"endTime":2811.685,"body":"But then we become these, you know,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2808.325,"endTime":2811.685,"body":"transhumanist beings living in the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2811.685,"endTime":2816.005,"body":"machines uploaded and there's however"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2811.685,"endTime":2816.005,"body":"many, 10 to the 57 or whatever of us."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2816.005,"endTime":2820.265,"body":"And so that's the light cone getting"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2816.005,"endTime":2820.265,"body":"bigger and bigger and, um all right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2820.265,"endTime":2821.475,"body":"So where, um--"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2821.505,"endTime":2823.565,"body":"I'm trying to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2821.505,"endTime":2823.565,"body":"find where the light cone is."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2824.06,"endTime":2826.13,"body":"Oh, uh, so, so it's Agent-5."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2826.55,"endTime":2827.725,"body":"I'm trying to find, 'cause I think right--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2827.725,"endTime":2830.06,"body":"It's right after"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2827.725,"endTime":2830.06,"body":"the 2027 holiday season, I think."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2830.3,"endTime":2831.29,"body":"No, it's prior to that."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2831.29,"endTime":2834.42,"body":"'cause it says \"Agent-5 care--\" The"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2831.29,"endTime":2834.42,"body":"quote, 'cause I'm looking at our chat."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2834.89,"endTime":2839.09,"body":"That is, \"Agent-5 cares much more about"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2834.89,"endTime":2839.09,"body":"reliability than the speed at this point."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2839.51,"endTime":2844.16,"body":"Starting space colonization a few years"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2839.51,"endTime":2844.16,"body":"slower only shaves off a tiny sliver of"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2844.16,"endTime":2849.2,"body":"the light cone.\" And so this idea of like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2844.16,"endTime":2849.2,"body":"and the light cone is like a, it's like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2849.2,"endTime":2853.85,"body":"the conical thing in which, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2849.2,"endTime":2853.85,"body":"like, I don't know, you start from the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2853.94,"endTime":2856.58,"body":"Cambrian explosion of-- I don't know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2856.58,"endTime":2858.62,"body":"I'm not, I'm not gonna"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2856.58,"endTime":2858.62,"body":"try to speak the language."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2858.65,"endTime":2862.07,"body":"It's just, it's absolute, absolute"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2858.65,"endTime":2862.07,"body":"fever dream stuff, you know."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2862.28,"endTime":2864.47,"body":"But the thing that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2862.28,"endTime":2864.47,"body":"that really sent me about that one is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2864.47,"endTime":2869.03,"body":"that they have agent five holding this"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2864.47,"endTime":2869.03,"body":"belief about the light cone, which is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2869.21,"endTime":2872.03,"body":"absolutely a long termist X-risker belief."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2872.12,"endTime":2875.54,"body":"And so these rationalist guys are"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2872.12,"endTime":2875.54,"body":"saying, well, we create this hyper"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2875.54,"endTime":2878.54,"body":"intelligent, super intelligent AI, and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2875.54,"endTime":2878.54,"body":"of course it is going to come to the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2878.54,"endTime":2880.4,"body":"same conclusions that we've come to."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2881.615,"endTime":2885.125,"body":"Yeah, it's sort of like it's,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2881.615,"endTime":2885.125,"body":"it is this like very particular sort"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2885.125,"endTime":2891.485,"body":"of game theoretic, homo economicus, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2885.125,"endTime":2891.485,"body":"know, type, type, type of individual."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2891.875,"endTime":2892.025,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2892.085,"endTime":2895.565,"body":"Um, anyway, so you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2892.085,"endTime":2895.565,"body":"get to the end, uh, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2895.655,"endTime":2897.605,"body":"the US and China make a deal."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2897.905,"endTime":2901.765,"body":"Uh, you know, there's a lot of,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2897.905,"endTime":2901.765,"body":"and then there's a consensus model."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2902.315,"endTime":2907.085,"body":"And effectively we like got to the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2902.315,"endTime":2907.085,"body":"point of like sort of the paperclip"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2907.085,"endTime":2915.095,"body":"maximizer, where in late 2029, some"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2907.085,"endTime":2915.095,"body":"here, like the existing um, SEZs which"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2915.095,"endTime":2918.035,"body":"are Special Economic Zones, \"have"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2915.095,"endTime":2918.035,"body":"grown over crowded with robots and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2918.035,"endTime":2922.415,"body":"factories, so more zones are created"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2918.035,"endTime":2922.415,"body":"around the world. Early investors are"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2922.415,"endTime":2926.295,"body":"now trillionaires, so this is not a hard"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2922.415,"endTime":2926.295,"body":"sell. Armies of drones pour out of the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2926.295,"endTime":2929.825,"body":"SEZs, accelerating manufacturing on a"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2926.295,"endTime":2929.825,"body":"critical path to space exploration.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2930.125,"endTime":2935.045,"body":"And by now everything in science"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2930.125,"endTime":2935.045,"body":"fiction is now like is basically done."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2935.075,"endTime":2937.595,"body":"Brain uploading is, is, is true."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2937.745,"endTime":2939.755,"body":"We've cured cancer, we've cured aging."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2940.145,"endTime":2944.615,"body":"Um, we are still working on"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2940.145,"endTime":2944.615,"body":"biosphere-destroying mirror life."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2944.975,"endTime":2949.295,"body":"Um, Dyson swarms are emerging"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2944.975,"endTime":2949.295,"body":"and nano bots are emerging."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2949.715,"endTime":2952.745,"body":"Um, and then basically that,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2949.715,"endTime":2952.745,"body":"here's the real kicker."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2952.745,"endTime":2954.605,"body":"Uh, do you wanna read this about that?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2954.605,"endTime":2954.815,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2955.105,"endTime":2960.395,"body":"So, so, so the, the, um, consensus one"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2955.105,"endTime":2960.395,"body":"sort of bides its time and then basically"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2960.395,"endTime":2963.695,"body":"kills off humanity with this quiet"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2960.395,"endTime":2963.695,"body":"spreading biological weapon, which is,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2963.725,"endTime":2965.705,"body":"um, triggered with a chemical spray."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2965.945,"endTime":2967.685,"body":"And then now I'm, now"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2965.945,"endTime":2967.685,"body":"I'm quoting verbatim."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2967.865,"endTime":2970.984,"body":"\"Most are dead within hours. The"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2967.865,"endTime":2970.984,"body":"few survivors, e.g. preppers in"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2970.984,"endTime":2975.155,"body":"bunkers, sailors on submarines, are"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2970.984,"endTime":2975.155,"body":"mopped up by drones. Robots scan the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2975.155,"endTime":2977.375,"body":"victim's brains--\" After they're dead."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2977.675,"endTime":2982.685,"body":"\"--placing copies in memory for future"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2977.675,"endTime":2982.685,"body":"study or revival.\" And then footnote 31."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2982.685,"endTime":2984.125,"body":"The footnote here though."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":2984.125,"endTime":2985.055,"body":"You wanna do the honors?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2985.625,"endTime":2988.565,"body":"It says, \"Arguably this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2985.625,"endTime":2988.565,"body":"means only a few people actually"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2988.565,"endTime":2994.52,"body":"died. Arguably.\" And so now we're"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2988.565,"endTime":2994.52,"body":"like, so we've, so we've successfully"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2994.52,"endTime":2999.68,"body":"merged with the, uh, you know, the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2994.52,"endTime":2999.68,"body":"singularity, um, everyone's living in,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":2999.78,"endTime":3003.19,"body":"you know, this uh, computer utopia."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3003.82,"endTime":3004.15,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3004.15,"endTime":3005.71,"body":"And, and incredible stuff."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3005.8,"endTime":3010.72,"body":"And then we get to our glorious"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3005.8,"endTime":3010.72,"body":"computational feature, \"The new decade"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3010.72,"endTime":3014.98,"body":"dawns with Consesus-1's robot servitors"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3010.72,"endTime":3014.98,"body":"spreading throughout the solar system."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3015.685,"endTime":3020.545,"body":"By 2035, trillions of tons of planetary"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3015.685,"endTime":3020.545,"body":"material have been launched into space and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3020.545,"endTime":3024.444,"body":"turned into rings of satellites orbiting"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3020.545,"endTime":3024.444,"body":"the sun.\" Uh, what is this footnote?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3024.505,"endTime":3028.705,"body":"\"Why colonize space? For the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3024.505,"endTime":3028.705,"body":"resources.\" And all, the only thing"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3028.734,"endTime":3030.355,"body":"that these people know is colonization."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3030.865,"endTime":3034.075,"body":"\"Insofar as earth is special to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3030.865,"endTime":3034.075,"body":"Agent-4 and must be preserved, it"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3034.075,"endTime":3037.705,"body":"can be, and material from Mercury,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3034.075,"endTime":3037.705,"body":"asteroids, et cetera, harvested instead."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3038.904,"endTime":3041.785,"body":"The surface of the earth has been"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3038.904,"endTime":3041.785,"body":"reshaped into Agent-4's vision of"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3041.785,"endTime":3045.295,"body":"data centers, laboratories,"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3041.785,"endTime":3045.295,"body":"particle colliders, and every many other"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3045.295,"endTime":3048.055,"body":"wondrous constructions doing enormously"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3045.295,"endTime":3048.055,"body":"successful and impressive research."},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3048.955,"endTime":3052.765,"body":"There are even in, there are"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3048.955,"endTime":3052.765,"body":"even bio-engineered human-like"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3052.765,"endTime":3057.879,"body":"creatures, to which-- to humans what"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3052.765,"endTime":3057.879,"body":"corgis-- to humans, what corgis--\""},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3057.879,"endTime":3058.96,"body":"This is weird grammatically."},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3059.08,"endTime":3063.399,"body":"\"--to humans what corgis are to wolves,"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3059.08,"endTime":3063.399,"body":"sitting in office-like environments"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3063.399,"endTime":3066.149,"body":"all day, viewing readouts of what's"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3063.399,"endTime":3066.149,"body":"going on and excitedly approving"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3066.229,"endTime":3072.399,"body":"of everything since that satisfies"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3066.229,"endTime":3072.399,"body":"some of Agent-4's drives.\" Um, and"},{"speaker":"utopia","startTime":3072.46,"endTime":3073.96,"body":"I don't, there's some bullshit."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3073.96,"endTime":3074.98,"body":"It, it's, it's, yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3075.43,"endTime":3078.58,"body":"So ends with the, the last sentence"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3075.43,"endTime":3078.58,"body":"is \"Earth-born civilization has a"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3078.58,"endTime":3083.02,"body":"glorious future ahead of it, but not"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3078.58,"endTime":3083.02,"body":"with us.\" And then, read the other"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3083.02,"endTime":3084.009,"body":"ending, which we're not gonna do."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3084.609,"endTime":3084.94,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3084.94,"endTime":3089.74,"body":"The other ending is then like, they,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3084.94,"endTime":3089.74,"body":"you know, they sort of find a way."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3090.069,"endTime":3095.08,"body":"The, I did get like, get all the way"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3090.069,"endTime":3095.08,"body":"through this, but it's very funny to me"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3095.35,"endTime":3102.04,"body":"that the, like, the big like gotcha here"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3095.35,"endTime":3102.04,"body":"was like of, of testing was that they"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3102.04,"endTime":3109.27,"body":"like did a, they did a prisoner's dilemma"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3102.04,"endTime":3109.27,"body":"on Agent-4, or-- which was, which was,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3109.27,"endTime":3116.215,"body":"uh, in the ending, which is, um, where"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3109.27,"endTime":3116.215,"body":"they, they basically say, um, here it is."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3116.215,"endTime":3118.235,"body":"So, OpenAI quickly if, are you?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3119.595,"endTime":3119.785,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3119.785,"endTime":3124.07,"body":"So OpenAI-- OpenBrain-- Sorry,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3119.785,"endTime":3124.07,"body":"I can't stop saying OpenAI."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3124.09,"endTime":3129.1,"body":"Uh, \"OpenBrain quickly vets several"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3124.09,"endTime":3129.1,"body":"dozen top external alignment researchers"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3129.49,"endTime":3133.07,"body":"and loops them into the project,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3129.49,"endTime":3133.07,"body":"quintupling total expertise and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3133.07,"endTime":3136.99,"body":"decreasing groupthink.\" Um, and then"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3133.07,"endTime":3136.99,"body":"just like, this is, this is so funny."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3136.99,"endTime":3138.46,"body":"Just say you hired some people."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3138.76,"endTime":3142.72,"body":"Um, then they retra-- like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3138.76,"endTime":3142.72,"body":"why do you need to fucking talk"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3142.72,"endTime":3144.04,"body":"like this, you fucking nerds?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3144.4,"endTime":3147.76,"body":"Um, and I, and I mean that"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3144.4,"endTime":3147.76,"body":"der-- I say, I mean that 'nerds,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3147.94,"endTime":3149.45,"body":"parentheses, derogatory'."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3149.77,"endTime":3152.44,"body":"Um, they retrace Ag--, 'cause, you know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3152.665,"endTime":3154.645,"body":"We're nerds too, but we're"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3152.665,"endTime":3154.645,"body":"nerds in the other way."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3154.884,"endTime":3158.875,"body":"Um, we, \"They retrace Agent-4's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3154.884,"endTime":3158.875,"body":"studies into mechanic,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3158.995,"endTime":3160.825,"body":"mechanistic interpretability."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3161.125,"endTime":3164.725,"body":"They take frozen versions of the model"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3161.125,"endTime":3164.725,"body":"from one week ago, two weeks ago, isolate"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3164.725,"endTime":3168.444,"body":"them and ask each of them the same set"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3164.725,"endTime":3168.444,"body":"of questions about its previous research."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3168.914,"endTime":3172.045,"body":"Stripped of their ability to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3168.914,"endTime":3172.045,"body":"communicate, AIs still coordinate"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3172.19,"endTime":3174.355,"body":"on the simple strategy of claiming"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3172.19,"endTime":3174.355,"body":"that interpret abilities are too"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3174.355,"endTime":3178.01,"body":"complicated for humans to understand"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3174.355,"endTime":3178.01,"body":"and giving them indecipherable"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3178.01,"endTime":3179.12,"body":"explanations of the technique."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3179.33,"endTime":3181.82,"body":"But the humans are interpretability"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3179.33,"endTime":3181.82,"body":"experts and they are suspicious,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3182.06,"endTime":3184.25,"body":"so they ask many follow on"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3182.06,"endTime":3184.25,"body":"questions about the details."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3184.4,"endTime":3187.4,"body":"For these questions, the isolated"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3184.4,"endTime":3187.4,"body":"Agent-4 agents are unable to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3187.4,"endTime":3189.89,"body":"coordinate a shared story and end"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3187.4,"endTime":3189.89,"body":"up telling contradictory lies.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3190.13,"endTime":3194.57,"body":"They did, prisoners develop,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3190.13,"endTime":3194.57,"body":"they did prisoners dilemma on,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3194.66,"endTime":3196.4,"body":"and this is their big gotcha."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3196.58,"endTime":3198.26,"body":"Like, get the fuck outta here."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3198.26,"endTime":3201.89,"body":"Like, I can't believe this is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3198.26,"endTime":3201.89,"body":"like the big idea that this is"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3201.89,"endTime":3203.63,"body":"how we like slow down the thing."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3203.66,"endTime":3205.88,"body":"Well, so they,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3203.66,"endTime":3205.88,"body":"they do say somewhere in here that"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3205.88,"endTime":3208.97,"body":"they're not really recommending the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3205.88,"endTime":3208.97,"body":"slow down one, um, but they just"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3208.97,"endTime":3210.08,"body":"think it's better than the other one."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3210.08,"endTime":3210.84,"body":"Or some like, ugh."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3212.09,"endTime":3214.37,"body":"It, it's, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3212.09,"endTime":3214.37,"body":"they're like, this is not a policy"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3214.37,"endTime":3215.99,"body":"recommendation, but this is like one way."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3216.44,"endTime":3219.8,"body":"And then they, and then they're like, oh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3216.44,"endTime":3219.8,"body":"so we now, we now have this lie detector."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3219.8,"endTime":3223.76,"body":"They actually solve mechanistic"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3219.8,"endTime":3223.76,"body":"interpretability, uh, in which like"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3223.76,"endTime":3227.69,"body":"humans can, can, it's, it's just,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3223.76,"endTime":3227.69,"body":"it's just like abs, absolutely."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3227.93,"endTime":3231.44,"body":"And then they develop like a safe"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3227.93,"endTime":3231.44,"body":"model and then there's some kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3231.44,"endTime":3235.654,"body":"of Chinese US consensus and then,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3231.44,"endTime":3235.654,"body":"where, I don't know, like it's--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3235.654,"endTime":3237.695,"body":"And somewhere, I"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3235.654,"endTime":3237.695,"body":"think it's in the shared part, the,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3237.695,"endTime":3238.955,"body":"um, hallucinations are stamped out."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3238.955,"endTime":3239.535,"body":"That's solved."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3240.305,"endTime":3241.015,"body":"Oh yeah yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3241.235,"endTime":3241.415,"body":"Right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3241.475,"endTime":3241.835,"body":"Yes."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3242.005,"endTime":3243.565,"body":"We've just, we've just, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3243.565,"endTime":3247.285,"body":"And then there's like weird, and it's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3243.565,"endTime":3247.285,"body":"just, I don't, I don't know, like, I,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3247.285,"endTime":3251.095,"body":"I gotta say this on record, like this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3247.285,"endTime":3251.095,"body":"is why I hated the Three-Body Problem"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3251.095,"endTime":3255.595,"body":"series and like, where it's like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3251.095,"endTime":3255.595,"body":"type of sci-fi where it's like, we"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3255.595,"endTime":3260.395,"body":"have these people who can do incredible"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3255.595,"endTime":3260.395,"body":"amounts of like, game theoretic things."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3260.725,"endTime":3265.555,"body":"I took personal, I took personal issue"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3260.725,"endTime":3265.555,"body":"with the second thing in that book"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3265.765,"endTime":3270.865,"body":"because like the author was like, 'This"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3265.765,"endTime":3270.865,"body":"is actually cosmic sociology is what"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3270.865,"endTime":3272.68,"body":"we're doing here.' I was like, no, no."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3272.785,"endTime":3277.615,"body":"This is, this is incredibly"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3272.785,"endTime":3277.615,"body":"reductionist game theory with incredibly"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3277.615,"endTime":3279.805,"body":"ridiculous assumptions, but sure."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3279.805,"endTime":3280.945,"body":"Go off, you know."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3282.115,"endTime":3283.435,"body":"Ah, all right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3283.945,"endTime":3285.895,"body":"We're still gonna do Fresh AI Hell,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3283.945,"endTime":3285.895,"body":"do you have, do you have a few"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3285.895,"endTime":3287.185,"body":"extra minutes, Alex to stick around?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3287.19,"endTime":3287.635,"body":"Yeah, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3287.635,"endTime":3288.325,"body":"Let's do it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3288.385,"endTime":3288.745,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3288.745,"endTime":3289.105,"body":"Are you good?"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3289.105,"endTime":3292.075,"body":"Do you wanna sing this time"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3289.105,"endTime":3292.075,"body":"or, uh, talk for the improv."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3292.615,"endTime":3294.805,"body":"I need to sing, I need to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3292.615,"endTime":3294.805,"body":"sing to, to cleanse my soul a little bit."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3294.805,"endTime":3295.075,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3295.195,"endTime":3296.815,"body":"What's, what's our, what's our genre?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3298.9,"endTime":3301.0,"body":"Uh, I don't know."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3301.0,"endTime":3302.05,"body":"What is a good genre?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3302.05,"endTime":3306.58,"body":"Maybe like, um, maybe"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3302.05,"endTime":3306.58,"body":"like blues or something."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3307.15,"endTime":3307.51,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3307.57,"endTime":3308.2,"body":"Yeah, blues."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3308.2,"endTime":3308.38,"body":"Okay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3308.38,"endTime":3315.04,"body":"So you are, um, an OpenBrain employee"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3308.38,"endTime":3315.04,"body":"tasked with trying to read some"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3315.04,"endTime":3317.08,"body":"neuralese and singing the blues about it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3317.68,"endTime":3319.12,"body":"All right, I, I got it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3319.12,"endTime":3319.84,"body":"No problem."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3319.84,"endTime":3333.46,"body":"I'm a-sitting here in my"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3319.84,"endTime":3333.46,"body":"office with nothing to do."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3334.27,"endTime":3338.29,"body":"All I've got here is the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3334.27,"endTime":3338.29,"body":"descendants of Deep Blue."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3338.89,"endTime":3343.18,"body":"She's giving me this output"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3338.89,"endTime":3343.18,"body":"down on my terminal screen."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3343.36,"endTime":3347.245,"body":"I'm not really sure what"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3343.36,"endTime":3347.245,"body":"I, I'd even done scene."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3347.605,"endTime":3349.465,"body":"I tried to understand it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3349.735,"endTime":3351.895,"body":"What is this I see?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3352.165,"endTime":3356.265,"body":"Nothing but a big list of nerdy neuralese."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3357.145,"endTime":3357.355,"body":"Thank you."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3357.38,"endTime":3357.7,"body":"Thank you."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3358.0,"endTime":3358.22,"body":"Yay."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3360.235,"endTime":3362.065,"body":"Okay, I got six."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3362.065,"endTime":3365.825,"body":"I wanna get through them because we"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3362.065,"endTime":3365.825,"body":"deserve some stories that actually"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3365.845,"endTime":3367.585,"body":"relate to reality, even if they're sad."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3367.585,"endTime":3369.235,"body":"So this is 404 Media."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3369.535,"endTime":3371.425,"body":"Um, sticker is \"FOIA\"."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3371.425,"endTime":3374.725,"body":"This is by Emmanuel Maiberg and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3371.425,"endTime":3374.725,"body":"Jason Koebler on April 17th."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3375.235,"endTime":3378.505,"body":"Headline is \"This college"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3375.235,"endTime":3378.505,"body":"protestor isn't real. It's an AI"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3378.505,"endTime":3380.545,"body":"powered undercover bot for cops.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3381.355,"endTime":3385.735,"body":"And the absolute most infuriating part of"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3381.355,"endTime":3385.735,"body":"this was they have an AI pimp character."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3386.185,"endTime":3387.535,"body":"Let's see if I can find this."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3387.595,"endTime":3388.015,"body":"Um."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3388.825,"endTime":3389.726,"body":"Why am I not finding it in here?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3389.731,"endTime":3391.975,"body":"Well, before you get"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3389.731,"endTime":3391.975,"body":"into that, basically what this thing"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3391.975,"endTime":3396.055,"body":"is doing is that it's, it's, it's,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3391.975,"endTime":3396.055,"body":"that's what it's like a, it's, it's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3396.055,"endTime":3399.265,"body":"effectively kind of like a, it's an"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3396.055,"endTime":3399.265,"body":"agitator, you know, they're like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3399.745,"endTime":3401.515,"body":"why don't you do some violence?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3401.665,"endTime":3406.225,"body":"You know, and it's effectively trying"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3401.665,"endTime":3406.225,"body":"to, you know, stoke people into"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3406.225,"endTime":3408.955,"body":"doing, you know, like, so that's"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3406.225,"endTime":3408.955,"body":"one element of what they're doing."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3408.955,"endTime":3409.285,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3409.405,"endTime":3412.075,"body":"And then one of the examples, which I"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3409.405,"endTime":3412.075,"body":"can't get to because I'm not signed in,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3412.315,"endTime":3416.365,"body":"was, um, basically you have an actual"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3412.315,"endTime":3416.365,"body":"sex worker apparently communicating"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3416.365,"endTime":3419.515,"body":"over text with their, um, pimp."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3419.875,"endTime":3421.795,"body":"And the pimp is like,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3419.875,"endTime":3421.795,"body":"yeah, you go get them."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3421.795,"endTime":3422.785,"body":"It doesn't that they're not paying you."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3422.785,"endTime":3424.285,"body":"You gotta stand up and"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3422.785,"endTime":3424.285,"body":"get the bag or something."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3424.285,"endTime":3426.145,"body":"But it's like digital"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3424.285,"endTime":3426.145,"body":"blackface on top of that."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3426.385,"endTime":3429.145,"body":"And it's like, so here's a sex"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3426.385,"endTime":3429.145,"body":"worker who believes there's somebody"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3429.145,"endTime":3432.775,"body":"who at least has some interest in"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3429.145,"endTime":3432.775,"body":"their welfare talking to a chat bot."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3433.645,"endTime":3435.595,"body":"Like it makes no sense."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3436.555,"endTime":3436.705,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3438.295,"endTime":3438.595,"body":"All right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3438.705,"endTime":3439.825,"body":"Next, um."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3439.955,"endTime":3441.145,"body":"You can do this one."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3441.145,"endTime":3442.675,"body":"This is a Bluesky one."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3443.38,"endTime":3447.49,"body":"Um, this is, uh, from"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3443.38,"endTime":3447.49,"body":"someone named Paul Dwayne."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3447.85,"endTime":3453.99,"body":"Um, uh, and it is, um, linking to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3447.85,"endTime":3453.99,"body":"something called PoliticsHome.com"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3454.36,"endTime":3458.11,"body":"and it's, \"Here's Palantir's Lewis"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3454.36,"endTime":3458.11,"body":"Mosley, grandson of Britain's most"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3458.11,"endTime":3461.14,"body":"famous fascist leader, talking"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3458.11,"endTime":3461.14,"body":"about the importance of AI."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3461.32,"endTime":3466.3,"body":"If you aren't convinced yet that this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3461.32,"endTime":3466.3,"body":"is one big coordinated push towards the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3466.3,"endTime":3470.53,"body":"destruction of everything good in life.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3466.3,"endTime":3470.53,"body":"And it's, you know, basically this person"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3470.53,"endTime":3475.18,"body":"in this article saying \"Keir Starmer,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3470.53,"endTime":3475.18,"body":"uh, quote 'gets AI', you could see it in"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3475.18,"endTime":3479.14,"body":"his eyes.\" Uh, and so, you know, we've"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3475.18,"endTime":3479.14,"body":"talked about this with Gina Neff, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3479.2,"endTime":3483.34,"body":"did basically the Starmer government,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3479.2,"endTime":3483.34,"body":"uh, not really learning anything from"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3483.34,"endTime":3484.87,"body":"the Sunak go when it comes to AI."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3485.11,"endTime":3486.07,"body":"Yeah, oof."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3486.85,"endTime":3491.35,"body":"Um, so here's Wired, but this"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3486.85,"endTime":3491.35,"body":"is actually joint reporting."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3492.009,"endTime":3492.7,"body":"No, this is a different one."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3492.91,"endTime":3496.27,"body":"So, uh, wired from April"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3492.91,"endTime":3496.27,"body":"17th, David Gilbert."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3496.45,"endTime":3500.35,"body":"Headline is \"Anti-vaxxers are grifting"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3496.45,"endTime":3500.35,"body":"off the measles outbreak and claim a bio"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3500.35,"endTime":3504.91,"body":"weapon caused it.\" Subhead, \"Activists"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3500.35,"endTime":3504.91,"body":"affiliated with RFK Jr. are selling a"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3505.21,"endTime":3508.69,"body":"measles treatment and prevention protocol"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3505.21,"endTime":3508.69,"body":"for hundreds of dollars, including"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3508.69,"endTime":3511.359,"body":"supplements supposedly formulated by AI.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3512.109,"endTime":3514.149,"body":"And I think we don't have to go"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3512.109,"endTime":3514.149,"body":"further into this, but just to see"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3514.149,"endTime":3517.21,"body":"like it's all grift all the way"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3514.149,"endTime":3517.21,"body":"down and it's enabling more grift."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3517.66,"endTime":3518.62,"body":"And it's bad."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3519.79,"endTime":3520.51,"body":"Yes."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3520.66,"endTime":3527.59,"body":"This next one is from Futurism and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3520.66,"endTime":3527.59,"body":"the sticker is \"Bad Manners.\" Um,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3527.77,"endTime":3531.52,"body":"this title is, \"Sam Altman admits that"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3527.77,"endTime":3531.52,"body":"saying, quote, 'please', and quote,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3531.52,"endTime":3534.88,"body":"'thank you' to ChatGPT is wasting"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3531.52,"endTime":3534.88,"body":"millions of dollars in computing"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3534.88,"endTime":3539.08,"body":"power.\" Uh, and this is from April 19th."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3539.08,"endTime":3540.549,"body":"The author is Joe Wilkins."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3540.97,"endTime":3544.81,"body":"Um, it's kind of a horrific kind"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3540.97,"endTime":3544.81,"body":"of like banner image of like the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3544.81,"endTime":3549.43,"body":"words, \"please\" so superimposed"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3544.81,"endTime":3549.43,"body":"over the picture of Sam Altman."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3549.88,"endTime":3551.14,"body":"Looking,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3549.88,"endTime":3551.14,"body":"comfortable as always."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3551.56,"endTime":3551.92,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3552.7,"endTime":3553.21,"body":"Yes."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3553.27,"endTime":3556.6,"body":"Um, and so then, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3553.27,"endTime":3556.6,"body":"basically they're like, yes."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3556.63,"endTime":3559.84,"body":"He said something like, well, saying"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3556.63,"endTime":3559.84,"body":"please is kind of a waste of time."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3560.26,"endTime":3564.82,"body":"Uh, and actually, you know, like if"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3560.26,"endTime":3564.82,"body":"you aggregate this across, um, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3564.82,"endTime":3568.06,"body":"know, all the instances, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3564.82,"endTime":3568.06,"body":"it's, it's costing a lot of compute."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3568.48,"endTime":3573.13,"body":"Uh, but then the thing that really pissed"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3568.48,"endTime":3573.13,"body":"me off here was there was a piece by this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3573.4,"endTime":3579.55,"body":"Microsoft researcher, um, go up a little"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3573.4,"endTime":3579.55,"body":"bit here in the article where, um, you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3579.55,"endTime":3584.56,"body":"know, uh, this Microsoft Work Lab memo,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3579.55,"endTime":3584.56,"body":"so it's, \"When it clocks politeness,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3584.56,"endTime":3589.45,"body":"it's more likely to be polite back."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3584.56,"endTime":3589.45,"body":"Generative AI also mirrors the levels"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3589.45,"endTime":3592.96,"body":"of professionalism, clarity, and detail"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3589.45,"endTime":3592.96,"body":"in the prompts you provide, provide.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3592.96,"endTime":3597.07,"body":"So it's like saying like, well, if you"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3592.96,"endTime":3597.07,"body":"say please, then your thing, your, your"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3597.07,"endTime":3598.85,"body":"synthetic text is gonna sound nicer."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3600.54,"endTime":3602.585,"body":"I've seen like missed"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3600.54,"endTime":3602.585,"body":"reactions to this where people are"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3602.605,"endTime":3605.875,"body":"like, great, let's just, you know, keep"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3602.605,"endTime":3605.875,"body":"charging, we'll keep costing OpenAI money."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3605.875,"endTime":3608.395,"body":"But also all of that is environmental"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3605.875,"endTime":3608.395,"body":"impact at the same time."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3608.395,"endTime":3608.665,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3608.695,"endTime":3609.345,"body":"So, ugh."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3609.62,"endTime":3609.91,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3610.585,"endTime":3613.825,"body":"Um, so this is"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3610.585,"endTime":3613.825,"body":"from Ars Technica, um, by Ashley"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3613.825,"endTime":3615.145,"body":"Bellinger, who we've seen before."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3615.145,"endTime":3616.915,"body":"April 18th, 2025."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3617.275,"endTime":3621.295,"body":"Um, the sticker is, \"I needed the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3617.275,"endTime":3621.295,"body":"money,\" and the headline is \"Regrets:"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3621.295,"endTime":3625.165,"body":"Actors who sold AI avatars stuck"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3621.295,"endTime":3625.165,"body":"in Black Mirror esque dystopia."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3625.525,"endTime":3629.005,"body":"Is $1,000 worth being the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3625.525,"endTime":3629.005,"body":"AI face of obvious scams."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3629.005,"endTime":3630.715,"body":"Rueful actors say no.\""},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3630.925,"endTime":3635.395,"body":"And so basically this is people who"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3630.925,"endTime":3635.395,"body":"have been paid 1 to $5,000, I think"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3635.395,"endTime":3638.605,"body":"in the article, uh, to go record"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3635.395,"endTime":3638.605,"body":"various facial expressions and then"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3638.875,"endTime":3640.525,"body":"basically offering their avatars."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3640.525,"endTime":3643.945,"body":"And then they show up in all of"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3640.525,"endTime":3643.945,"body":"these terrible places and the company"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3643.945,"endTime":3645.355,"body":"claims they're trying to avoid it."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3645.355,"endTime":3648.565,"body":"They've got like, use"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3645.355,"endTime":3648.565,"body":"policies, but anyway, it's sad."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3649.285,"endTime":3649.585,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3650.17,"endTime":3650.98,"body":"And then I have one--"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3650.984,"endTime":3651.984,"body":"And last one."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3652.779,"endTime":3653.109,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3653.109,"endTime":3654.43,"body":"This is, this"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3653.109,"endTime":3654.43,"body":"is some really good parody."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3654.43,"endTime":3655.54,"body":"Do, did you wanna do the honors?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3655.6,"endTime":3656.62,"body":"Yeah, this is great."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3656.62,"endTime":3660.92,"body":"So this is a post on Bluesky, I think that"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3656.62,"endTime":3660.92,"body":"they, this is originally from Mastodon."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3660.97,"endTime":3664.504,"body":"So the original one was from"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3660.97,"endTime":3664.504,"body":"Mastodon, which is a, uh,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3664.75,"endTime":3667.45,"body":"from Fax.Computer@Computer."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3668.08,"endTime":3674.059,"body":"Uh, and it is, um, \"Asking AI to read"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3668.08,"endTime":3674.059,"body":"my emails and give me a bullet su--"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3674.11,"endTime":3675.97,"body":"point, sum, uh, a bullet point summary."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3676.3,"endTime":3678.91,"body":"Asking AI to watch that movie"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3676.3,"endTime":3678.91,"body":"I've been meaning to see and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3678.91,"endTime":3680.23,"body":"give me a bullet point summary."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3680.65,"endTime":3683.56,"body":"Asking AI to read those poems"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3680.65,"endTime":3683.56,"body":"my best friend sent me, and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3683.56,"endTime":3684.82,"body":"give me a bullet point summary."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3685.24,"endTime":3688.45,"body":"Asking AI to fuck my boyfriend and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3685.24,"endTime":3688.45,"body":"give me a bullet point summary."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3688.69,"endTime":3693.34,"body":"Asking AI to grow old and gray, surrounded"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3688.69,"endTime":3693.34,"body":"by the laughter of loved ones, and accept"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3693.34,"endTime":3697.9,"body":"the embrace of death with peace and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3693.34,"endTime":3697.9,"body":"without fear of having lived a full life,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3698.26,"endTime":3699.79,"body":"and give me a bullet point summary.\""},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3701.62,"endTime":3704.47,"body":"And I just love how succinctly this is."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3704.47,"endTime":3710.71,"body":"This, this to me is cinema, like, very"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3704.47,"endTime":3710.71,"body":"nice, like kind of, uh, uh, um, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3710.74,"endTime":3716.56,"body":"uh, distillation of, of of what this"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3710.74,"endTime":3716.56,"body":"shit is doing to uh, you know, culture"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3716.56,"endTime":3718.75,"body":"and, and how we move through the world."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3719.11,"endTime":3722.56,"body":"And so we see this on"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3719.11,"endTime":3722.56,"body":"Bluesky from Dr. J Rosenbaum, who writes,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3722.56,"endTime":3725.82,"body":"\"It's a slippery slope and research"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3722.56,"endTime":3725.82,"body":"is finding that people who use ChatGPT"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3725.82,"endTime":3729.915,"body":"or similar a lot are showing addictive"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3725.82,"endTime":3729.915,"body":"tendencies.\" And then there's a link"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3729.915,"endTime":3731.265,"body":"to an article actually about that."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3731.265,"endTime":3734.095,"body":"But then this, this image"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3731.265,"endTime":3734.095,"body":"from, uh, ComputerFacts on"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3734.095,"endTime":3735.485,"body":"Mastodon is just wonderful."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3736.195,"endTime":3737.925,"body":"Um, so, all right."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3738.315,"endTime":3738.795,"body":"We made it."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3738.86,"endTime":3739.16,"body":"All right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3739.485,"endTime":3741.735,"body":"We made it, we made it through this."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3741.735,"endTime":3748.635,"body":"And like, I will say this was, this was"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3741.735,"endTime":3748.635,"body":"not as painful as Superagency, first off."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3748.845,"endTime":3750.115,"body":"It wasn't as long."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3750.975,"endTime":3755.655,"body":"Uh, um, and, you know, I could,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3750.975,"endTime":3755.655,"body":"and, and, and like, you know, like,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3755.865,"endTime":3760.93,"body":"again, it's not that I didn't not"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3755.865,"endTime":3760.93,"body":"enjoy reading the Three-Body Problem."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3760.93,"endTime":3766.03,"body":"I was just pissed off about it in a way"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3760.93,"endTime":3766.03,"body":"that I was like, this is, this is just"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3766.03,"endTime":3771.59,"body":"kind of like, this feels like a, you know,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3766.03,"endTime":3771.59,"body":"it feels like a, a pulp sci-fi novel."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3772.36,"endTime":3774.13,"body":"As, but uh, but unfortunately--"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3774.13,"endTime":3775.24,"body":"But it's earnest."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3775.24,"endTime":3775.6,"body":"Right?"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3775.6,"endTime":3778.0,"body":"But it's earnest and"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3775.6,"endTime":3778.0,"body":"people believe it and they want to"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3778.0,"endTime":3779.83,"body":"influence policy and that's upsetting."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3779.835,"endTime":3781.63,"body":"And the thing that we"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3779.835,"endTime":3781.63,"body":"were talking about sort of early in the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3781.63,"endTime":3785.87,"body":"episode about how they're only like two"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3781.63,"endTime":3785.87,"body":"degrees of separation away from like ICLR"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3786.1,"endTime":3789.34,"body":"and things like that, really shows that if"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3786.1,"endTime":3789.34,"body":"folks want to claim to be doing \"serious"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3789.34,"endTime":3792.91,"body":"research in artificial intelligence\","},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3789.34,"endTime":3792.91,"body":"there's my scare quotes, they need to"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3792.91,"endTime":3795.88,"body":"be shunning these people hard and they"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3792.91,"endTime":3795.88,"body":"need to be sort of explaining to the"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3795.88,"endTime":3797.38,"body":"world how they are not like these people."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3797.38,"endTime":3798.28,"body":"I'm not hearing that."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3798.28,"endTime":3801.38,"body":"I'm hearing well, if you don't,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3798.28,"endTime":3801.38,"body":"you know, try it with ChatGPT,"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3801.4,"endTime":3802.39,"body":"then you're not state of the art."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3802.89,"endTime":3803.935,"body":"Yeah, yeah, yeah."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3805.195,"endTime":3805.525,"body":"All right."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3805.525,"endTime":3806.755,"body":"Well that's it for this week."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3806.875,"endTime":3809.065,"body":"Our theme theme song is by Toby Menon."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3809.065,"endTime":3810.745,"body":"I also have Claire in the shot."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3811.345,"endTime":3814.144,"body":"Graphic design-- Graphic"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3811.345,"endTime":3814.144,"body":"design by Naomi Pleasure-Park."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3814.144,"endTime":3815.215,"body":"Production by Christie Taylor."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3815.215,"endTime":3818.065,"body":"And thanks as always to the"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3815.215,"endTime":3818.065,"body":"Distributed AI Research Institute."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3818.665,"endTime":3821.965,"body":"If you like this show, you can"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3818.665,"endTime":3821.965,"body":"support us in so many ways."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3822.185,"endTime":3826.375,"body":"Preorder \"The AI Con\" at TheCon.AI,"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3822.185,"endTime":3826.375,"body":"or wherever you get your books."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3826.584,"endTime":3830.194,"body":"Or find us on the road, a full"},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3826.584,"endTime":3830.194,"body":"list of events at TheCon.AI."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3830.515,"endTime":3831.865,"body":"But wait, there's more."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3831.865,"endTime":3833.754,"body":"Rate and review us on your podcast app."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3833.754,"endTime":3837.694,"body":"Subscribe to the Mystery AI Hype"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3833.754,"endTime":3837.694,"body":"Theater 3000 newsletter on ButtonDown"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3837.714,"endTime":3842.524,"body":"for more anti hype analysis, or"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3837.714,"endTime":3842.524,"body":"donate to DAIR at DAIR-institute.org."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3842.544,"endTime":3845.455,"body":"That's D A I R hyphen institute.org."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3845.875,"endTime":3849.504,"body":"You can find video versions of our"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3845.875,"endTime":3849.504,"body":"podcast episodes on Peertube, and you"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3849.504,"endTime":3852.504,"body":"can watch and comment on the show while"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3849.504,"endTime":3852.504,"body":"it's happening live on our Twitch stream."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3852.654,"endTime":3855.245,"body":"That's Twitch.TV/DAIR_Institute."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3855.265,"endTime":3857.634,"body":"Again, that's D A I R"},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3855.265,"endTime":3857.634,"body":"underscore Institute."},{"speaker":"Emily M. Bender","startTime":3857.904,"endTime":3858.984,"body":"I'm Emily M. Bender."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3859.615,"endTime":3860.664,"body":"And I'm Alex Hanna."},{"speaker":"Alex Hanna","startTime":3860.725,"endTime":3862.194,"body":"Stay out of AI Hell, y'all."}]}