The Future of Portland Home Prices (What to Expect by 2046)

🏡 Episode Summary

Where is the Portland housing market headed over the next 20 years?

In this episode of Off the Record, Joe and Makayla break down past trends, current numbers, and economist forecasts to project what Portland real estate could look like by 2046. From $300K homes in 2006 to today’s $500K+ median, the trajectory tells a powerful story.

If you’re deciding whether to buy now or wait, this episode gives you a clear, data-backed perspective on pricing, affordability, and what the future could mean for buyers and homeowners. 

⏱️ Episode Highlights

[00:00:30] – Where Could Portland Be in 2046?
Using past data to forecast the next 20 years of the housing market.

[00:07:10] – Today’s Market Snapshot
Current home prices, rents, and mortgage payments—and why affordability is the biggest challenge.

[00:09:01] – 20 Years of Price Growth
How Portland went from ~$300K homes to today’s market—and what drove it.

[00:12:26] – What’s Driving the Market
Inventory limits, migration, and policy shaping long-term prices.

[00:14:16] – The Forecast Assumptions
Inflation, interest rates, and rent growth projections explained.

[00:15:58] – $1M Homes? The 2046 Prediction
Why entry-level homes could hit $1M+ in the future.

[00:17:28] – Future Monthly Payments
What mortgages could realistically look like—and the wage gap concern.

[00:20:01] – Best vs Worst Case Scenarios
How tech growth, migration, and rates could impact pricing.

👥 Hosts

Joe Reitzug and Makayla Mast are Portland-based real estate experts with the LivPortland team. They share practical insights, real data, and straightforward guidance to help buyers and sellers make smart decisions.

🎯 Thinking about your next move?

Visit LivPortland.com, connect with the team, and subscribe to Off the Record for weekly insights on the Portland real estate market.

Thank you for listening to this episode. Stay up to date on the latest trends and insights by subscribing to our podcast and following us on social media.

For more information about buying or selling in the Portland Metro real estate market, please visit www.LivPortland.com or contact us directly.

We appreciate your feedback, so please leave a review and let us know what topics you would like to hear more about.

Transcript

00:00:08:18 - 00:00:30:20

Joe Reitzug

Welcome to Off the Record talking real estate with Joe and Makayla. If you're interested in the Portland, Oregon real estate market and want the unvarnished inside scoop, you've come to the right place. Thanks for giving us a listen. Okay. Welcome, everyone. Thanks for joining the show. This is the Off the Record podcast with Makayla Mast and Joe Reitzug.

00:00:30:20 - 00:00:33:01

Joe Reitzug

Hi, Makayla.

00:00:33:02 - 00:00:34:23

Makayla Mast

Hello, Joe. How are you?

00:00:35:01 - 00:01:07:11

Joe Reitzug

I'm fantastic. I am basking in the glory of a beautiful Friday. And we've got a great topic for you today. So today we're going to be talking about where the Portland housing market is expected to land in 20 years. So 2046, what are the economists predicting for the Portland Housing market, which I thought was fascinating. And we're going to do that by looking at what the economists have said, you know, in hindsight over the past 20 years.

00:01:07:12 - 00:01:22:12

Joe Reitzug

So looking at that data and then reflecting that to the future. And obviously there's a lot of caveats with this and all sorts of different if, ands or buts. But for the most part, I think it's super interesting. So I'm excited to share this today.

00:01:22:12 - 00:01:26:18

Makayla Mast

Yeah, I love this. Thanks for this great idea. I think this will be super interesting.

00:01:27:00 - 00:01:35:21

Joe Reitzug

I got this idea from a post that I saw online about what cost were free World War two.

00:01:35:23 - 00:01:36:06

Makayla Mast

Yeah.

00:01:36:07 - 00:01:37:14

Joe Reitzug

And I was like.

00:01:37:16 - 00:01:39:02

Makayla Mast

It's always a gut punch isn't it.

00:01:39:05 - 00:02:03:03

Joe Reitzug

It really is a gut punch. But the flip side to that is we are where we're at now. And everyone's like oh it's so expensive and this and that. Well yeah if you're looking back. But let's look forward today and think about what that means. If you're thinking about buying or selling a home, or if you're considering waiting for a significant amount of time because the numbers are shocking.

00:02:03:05 - 00:02:06:09

Makayla Mast

Yes. Yeah. I also got I got punch.

00:02:06:11 - 00:02:07:19

Joe Reitzug

Also, I got that, yes.

00:02:07:21 - 00:02:09:20

Makayla Mast

So okay, fine. We'll go.

00:02:09:20 - 00:02:13:05

Joe Reitzug

There. But our first topic of the day.

00:02:13:05 - 00:02:23:09

Makayla Mast

Is our off the record moment.

00:02:23:11 - 00:02:28:05

Makayla Mast

Give me a confession a grape usually we go the grape route. Oh, and.

00:02:28:05 - 00:02:29:01

Joe Reitzug

Full grain thing.

00:02:29:01 - 00:02:32:11

Makayla Mast

To do. And that can be real estate or not real estate related.

00:02:32:16 - 00:02:32:23

Joe Reitzug

Yeah.

00:02:33:01 - 00:02:35:00

Makayla Mast

Do you want to start us off?

00:02:35:02 - 00:02:45:16

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, sure. And, I'm going to go ahead and say 99.9% of the people out there are going to be with me on this one. But my gripe is inflation. Okay, go.

00:02:45:20 - 00:02:46:14

Makayla Mast

I know.

00:02:46:19 - 00:02:47:14

Joe Reitzug

The crying out.

00:02:47:14 - 00:02:51:01

Makayla Mast

Loud. Not even funny. It's almost funny.

00:02:51:03 - 00:03:10:13

Joe Reitzug

It's almost funny how bad it is. But I went shopping the other day and I was just shocked at some of the prices. And it's just so crazy. You can see the prices almost from week to week, like in the grocery store moving up. And they were expensive before and now they're even more expensive. So that's my gripe.

00:03:10:13 - 00:03:20:22

Joe Reitzug

And yeah, can we do anything about it? You, me and the person watching this know or listening to this know. But I'm just tired of it.

00:03:21:00 - 00:03:30:21

Makayla Mast

Yeah. That's fair. I almost threw up the other day buying a pound of ground beef for 1099. I could not believe I was so beside myself.

00:03:30:23 - 00:03:32:02

Joe Reitzug

I know that better than that.

00:03:32:02 - 00:03:33:11

Makayla Mast

Was the cheapest one I could.

00:03:33:11 - 00:03:35:01

Joe Reitzug

Find. That was the cheapest one.

00:03:35:01 - 00:03:35:09

Makayla Mast

Yeah.

00:03:35:13 - 00:03:36:18

Joe Reitzug

Oh my gosh.

00:03:36:18 - 00:03:37:00

Makayla Mast

No.

00:03:37:01 - 00:03:44:06

Joe Reitzug

And my wife and I are been laughing at each other because when we go shopping, like we are our parents and our grandparents.

00:03:44:07 - 00:03:45:03

Makayla Mast

Yeah. Oh, yeah.

00:03:45:04 - 00:03:53:15

Joe Reitzug

Like, she came home from the grocery store the other day and she's like, you'll not believe the steel I got on this. And I'm like, golly, is that us? Now?

00:03:53:17 - 00:03:57:12

Makayla Mast

It's so relevant because the inflation is problem is insane.

00:03:57:12 - 00:03:58:16

Joe Reitzug

So yeah.

00:03:58:20 - 00:03:59:09

Makayla Mast

It is what it.

00:03:59:09 - 00:04:02:18

Joe Reitzug

Is. It is what it is. But yeah. So so what's your that's.

00:04:02:18 - 00:04:21:10

Makayla Mast

So funny because my gripe is also shopping related. As you know I ran some errands before this. Okay. I feel like when I was a kid. If you went up to a grocery store person or someone working at a store and you asked them a basic question about where something would be, they would usually know at least the right direction.

00:04:21:12 - 00:04:51:02

Makayla Mast

Twice today in a row. They sent me an office. They either told me they didn't have item, or they sent me to the opposite side of the store. And normally I wouldn't really care, you know, get your steps in. I'm limping. I'm pregnant. I don't have time for three trips around Costco. And I took three trips around Costco, which I had to call my mom because I was almost in tears because I was in so much pain as I'm limping, so mad, she's like, oh, it's right over there.

00:04:51:03 - 00:04:57:23

Makayla Mast

I'm like, oh, why didn't I just call my mom? I feel like people don't know their hands from their tails.

00:04:58:01 - 00:05:00:04

Joe Reitzug

And Costco move stuff all the time.

00:05:00:04 - 00:05:01:04

Makayla Mast

They do. Yeah.

00:05:01:07 - 00:05:12:23

Joe Reitzug

Those buggers, you know, if you're getting wrong directions at, like, a little grocery store, that's one thing. But when you're getting wrong directions at Costco, I mean, some of these Costco's are in two different zip codes.

00:05:13:01 - 00:05:19:14

Makayla Mast

They are huge. And I one time I ditched my cart and I was just walking and then I yeah, it was rough.

00:05:19:14 - 00:05:20:14

Joe Reitzug

But yeah.

00:05:20:16 - 00:05:24:01

Makayla Mast

All that being said, I found what I needed. It just took me way longer than I needed to really.

00:05:24:01 - 00:05:24:13

Joe Reitzug

Looking for.

00:05:24:18 - 00:05:27:09

Makayla Mast

Quiche. Quiche.

00:05:27:11 - 00:05:30:08

Joe Reitzug

Like pre-made quiche at Costco.

00:05:30:10 - 00:05:32:20

Makayla Mast

It's. Have you ever had it. It's pretty tasty,

00:05:32:22 - 00:05:33:07

Joe Reitzug

No.

00:05:33:09 - 00:05:44:01

Makayla Mast

But do you think it'd be buy like, the cheese and the breakfast stuff? But no, it was buy like a weird, like buy the beer at my Costco. It didn't make any sense.

00:05:44:03 - 00:05:45:10

Joe Reitzug

So, yeah, not at all.

00:05:45:10 - 00:05:47:06

Makayla Mast

That is my gripe the other day.

00:05:47:11 - 00:05:58:05

Joe Reitzug

I'm with you on that one. I'm with you on that one. Do you want to know how old I am? My shopping list is made by my.

00:05:58:07 - 00:06:02:04

Makayla Mast

Oh, your room, my room. That time makes sense. Yeah, I love that.

00:06:02:06 - 00:06:06:11

Joe Reitzug

I just started doing that the last year, and I'm like, this is brilliant. Yeah. Love this.

00:06:06:12 - 00:06:08:23

Makayla Mast

So you're not reading it 15 times? Yeah.

00:06:09:01 - 00:06:11:00

Joe Reitzug

But guess who's not on board with that?

00:06:11:02 - 00:06:11:13

Makayla Mast

You're right.

00:06:11:14 - 00:06:30:22

Joe Reitzug

We share. Yeah. My wife and we share a Apple notes for our grocery list for different places we go. She doesn't get it. Oh, yeah. So I'm going down the list of everything I need, and all of a sudden it's like. Wait, why? Why is this here? Now I got a double back, right?

00:06:31:00 - 00:06:33:00

Makayla Mast

And sometimes I said.

00:06:33:02 - 00:06:39:00

Joe Reitzug

Oh, trust me, if it's one of the things she wants, she may or may not get it. I'm sorry, sweetheart.

00:06:39:02 - 00:06:39:22

Makayla Mast

I'm. That's clear.

00:06:40:00 - 00:06:44:02

Joe Reitzug

Learn how the layout works, and we'll be just fine.

00:06:44:04 - 00:06:46:22

Makayla Mast

Yeah. So. Okay. Well, good with all that.

00:06:46:22 - 00:06:47:14

Joe Reitzug

That's all that.

00:06:47:15 - 00:06:55:04

Makayla Mast

Don't worry, folks, we end this episode every episode with something that we're loving to leave you on a happier note. Yeah, it's a journey here.

00:06:55:04 - 00:07:02:11

Joe Reitzug

We clear out the negative stuff up front, and then we by the end, we're happy and we get to our positive stuff.

00:07:02:12 - 00:07:03:14

Makayla Mast

Yes. Yes.

00:07:03:16 - 00:07:10:04

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So, so let's talk about, where Portland housing is going to end up 20 years from now.

00:07:10:07 - 00:07:11:02

Makayla Mast

00:07:11:04 - 00:07:34:10

Joe Reitzug

And you know, I think what we need to do is start with the baseline of where we're at now. And home prices right now are right around 525 or so. Yep. And that's the median not the average but the median if you know and median people remember is if you line up every single sale and then pick the one that's exactly in the middle, that's in them.

00:07:34:12 - 00:07:37:16

Joe Reitzug

That's the median. So flat to slightly negative growth.

00:07:37:17 - 00:07:40:01

Makayla Mast

We needed a after that 2021 peak.

00:07:40:01 - 00:07:54:07

Joe Reitzug

So yeah. Yeah. So values are coming down just a little bit in most areas flat and others talking to you like Oswego and somewhat some of those areas where it's actually going up a little bit still. But what about rents Makayla.

00:07:54:09 - 00:08:00:22

Makayla Mast

Rents are between 12 1820 200, depending on what you're looking for.

00:08:00:23 - 00:08:02:11

Joe Reitzug

Is that for A32?

00:08:02:13 - 00:08:15:03

Makayla Mast

Yes. I would say A32 is closer to 20 to 25 even. But I think 2000 is a good median place for us if you're considering apartments and all different types of housing.

00:08:15:05 - 00:08:20:08

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. And average mortgage payment is 25 to 27, 28, I would say.

00:08:20:09 - 00:08:25:23

Makayla Mast

Okay. Okay. Yeah. And that's because a lot of people have lower interest rates right now, which is great.

00:08:26:00 - 00:08:41:12

Joe Reitzug

So renting is still a little bit cheaper. We just did a podcast on that whole thing. So if you want to go back and find out about renting versus buying and get the inside scoop and all that, that was a really good episode and I yeah, I've actually got good feedback on that one from some folks.

00:08:41:13 - 00:08:42:04

Makayla Mast

Good to hear.

00:08:42:05 - 00:09:01:04

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. The biggest thing that we're facing in the current housing market is affordability. Prices have shot up. Wages have not kept up. Less and less people can afford to buy a home. So that is the reality of what we're what we're in right now. But what does the last 20 years tell us?

00:09:01:06 - 00:09:10:11

Makayla Mast

I love this, this is crazy. So this is from 2006 to 2026, which, yeah, I don't think 2006 was 20 years ago.

00:09:10:13 - 00:09:13:15

Joe Reitzug

Let's do the math. It was, you know.

00:09:13:17 - 00:09:23:20

Makayla Mast

It makes me feel old. Okay, so in 2006, median price of a home here in Portland was between 280 and $300,000. Yeah.

00:09:23:22 - 00:09:35:21

Joe Reitzug

I know I've told you this. I remember the first house that I listed that was 200,000. And I was like, Holy smokes, this is the big time. I think it was 97.

00:09:35:22 - 00:09:36:23

Makayla Mast

So crazy.

00:09:37:00 - 00:09:58:02

Joe Reitzug

Yeah I was like oh my guy. And it was a house over in Southeast Portland. Beautiful house like 207,000. And I just that is always stuck with me like oh my gosh, this is just such a fantastic home. And then when you got up into the four and 500,000, you're like talking some serious, like, these are big time.

00:09:58:02 - 00:10:00:06

Makayla Mast

Homes, like mansions.

00:10:00:07 - 00:10:02:08

Joe Reitzug

I wouldn't say mansions, but just.

00:10:02:08 - 00:10:04:22

Makayla Mast

But like, a really nice, family home.

00:10:04:22 - 00:10:10:01

Joe Reitzug

Nice. 3030 500 square foot plus home and a great neighborhood.

00:10:10:02 - 00:10:10:16

Makayla Mast

Wow.

00:10:10:19 - 00:10:16:13

Joe Reitzug

That's 500,000 back in 2006. You're getting a nice house.

00:10:16:15 - 00:10:21:10

Makayla Mast

Really? Why didn't my dad buy me a house in 2006? Come on.

00:10:21:12 - 00:10:29:12

Joe Reitzug

You were a baby. Yeah. The bottom was 2012. 230 to 250 was the average.

00:10:29:13 - 00:10:30:09

Makayla Mast

Wow. Okay.

00:10:30:12 - 00:10:30:21

Joe Reitzug

Yeah.

00:10:30:22 - 00:10:32:04

Makayla Mast

Interesting. Yeah.

00:10:32:06 - 00:10:40:22

Joe Reitzug

I'm sure we're, blowing some minds right now. If people that are listening, like, what, 230? Back in 2012. Yep. That's what it was.

00:10:40:22 - 00:10:44:07

Makayla Mast

Can't get much for 230 anymore. Yeah. Condos.

00:10:44:09 - 00:10:45:03

Joe Reitzug

Yeah.

00:10:45:05 - 00:10:50:06

Makayla Mast

So peak was in 2021 at 550, which is interesting.

00:10:50:08 - 00:11:06:20

Joe Reitzug

So for appreciation rates we're looking at three five to 4 or 5. For the most part rent growth on the other hand. 2011. 900 to $1000 for a 2 or 3 bedroom home in the Portland metro area.

00:11:07:01 - 00:11:07:19

Makayla Mast

That's crazy.

00:11:07:20 - 00:11:22:14

Joe Reitzug

900, 900 bucks. Wow. I remember in 1995, Stephanie and I, this is right before we got married. We were living on southwest Altadena in southwest Portland. Beautiful neighborhood.

00:11:22:14 - 00:11:23:11

Makayla Mast

Very nice. Straight.

00:11:23:15 - 00:11:40:15

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, very nice street in a three bedroom, two and a half bath, split level. Our daylight ranch. And we were in there with another couple, and we were splitting, like an $800. Oh, my rent. So 400 bucks.

00:11:40:15 - 00:11:41:23

Makayla Mast

Apiece. That's so crazy.

00:11:42:00 - 00:11:44:19

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, it was nuts. Oh, it was nuts.

00:11:44:21 - 00:11:45:15

Makayla Mast

That's awesome.

00:11:45:15 - 00:11:55:20

Joe Reitzug

So, rents have gone up four and a half to 5%, so a little bit faster than prices, which is a little bit scary.

00:11:55:22 - 00:11:59:00

Makayla Mast

Yeah. Makes renting unaffordable everything. Yeah.

00:11:59:02 - 00:12:26:09

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. Mortgage cost volatility. We had the to 3% in the 20 2122. That just put a torch to the market and everything was on fire. But everyone knows where it's gone since then. Seven seven and a quarter down now to six and a half. We were below sixes for a while there, but then stuff happened. We won't date this episode, but things happen.

00:12:26:15 - 00:12:45:10

Joe Reitzug

So ownership cost has been rate driven, not just price driven. And you know, we see that in this market. Yeah. Some of the structural drivers over the last 20 years, population growth and migration cycles. And Portland's had a very strong inbound migration which has been great.

00:12:45:10 - 00:12:45:20

Makayla Mast

Yes.

00:12:46:00 - 00:13:06:18

Joe Reitzug

Land use constraints of the urban growth boundary. Really we weren't able to put a whole lot of inventory on the market in the last 20 years compared to a lot of other metro areas, right. Which has it's good and bad. I lean on the side of it being more of a good thing than a bad thing, right? Wage growth is lagging housing.

00:13:06:20 - 00:13:10:00

Joe Reitzug

And you know, that's what we've talked about with the affordability.

00:13:10:01 - 00:13:11:18

Makayla Mast

That's true for everywhere in America.

00:13:11:19 - 00:13:35:15

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, totally. And then new construction. It's been really difficult with the volatility of the market over the past 20 years to get consistent new homes into the marketplace. And right now we're seeing a lot of new homes. But, you know, people need to remember that it takes 2 to 3 years to get stuff out of the ground.

00:13:35:17 - 00:13:45:18

Joe Reitzug

So 2 to 3 years ago they had no idea what market we were going to be in now. Sure. So that's why it's kind of you know it's kind of difficult for these guys.

00:13:45:20 - 00:13:49:20

Makayla Mast

It's a very risky game to be in. Yeah but probably rewarding.

00:13:49:22 - 00:14:16:08

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So let's look at the economic modeling assumptions for looking at 2046. So inflation two and a half increase over long term. I don't know exactly what that means. I'm getting a lot of this from different economic forums and different things. Just that you know, inflation will hopefully stay about where we're at. Right now. Okay. Real home price growth probably one and a half to 2%.

00:14:16:10 - 00:14:27:11

Joe Reitzug

National home price growth three and a half to 4%. Rent growth 4 to 5%. And then mortgage rates normalize to five and a half to six and a half.

00:14:27:14 - 00:14:29:22

Makayla Mast

Okay. That's good to know. Yeah.

00:14:30:00 - 00:14:32:21

Joe Reitzug

And that's the forecast for the next 20 years.

00:14:32:21 - 00:14:39:13

Makayla Mast

Sure. Okay. So key constraints here. Like we just talked about Oregon land use policy limits sprawl.

00:14:39:15 - 00:15:07:07

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. And then construction cost remains structurally high. And if it there's poor builders when the cost goes up and fluctuates so much it really digs into them. So depending on where that goes over the next 20 years that could have a big impact on some of this forecasting middle housing increases density but doesn't crash prices. I'm thinking that that means and I've heard a couple of economists talk about this.

00:15:07:09 - 00:15:23:03

Joe Reitzug

The middle housing of, you know, that price point where everyone's looking, they're going to be looking for density. Portland's always looking for density, right? All the different metros around here are trying to get more dense, but hopefully that doesn't crash prices, which I don't think it will.

00:15:23:03 - 00:15:26:09

Makayla Mast

No, I don't think so. I think that the demand is there.

00:15:26:11 - 00:15:28:11

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So let's get to the fun stuff.

00:15:28:13 - 00:15:29:10

Makayla Mast

So crazy.

00:15:29:10 - 00:15:32:17

Joe Reitzug

The forecast for 2046.

00:15:32:18 - 00:15:40:04

Makayla Mast

I love this because Joe has a little crystal ball emoji. By this section. And we always say we we don't have a crystal ball.

00:15:40:06 - 00:15:40:23

Joe Reitzug

Yeah.

00:15:41:00 - 00:15:42:08

Makayla Mast

This time this time we might.

00:15:42:09 - 00:15:58:19

Joe Reitzug

We're going to give you the crystal ball. So median home prices Mac what are we looking at. And this is assuming we go from 525 median price to I know I know.

00:15:58:21 - 00:16:02:01

Makayla Mast

A million to a 1.15.

00:16:02:07 - 00:16:03:12

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. Yeah.

00:16:03:17 - 00:16:04:11

Makayla Mast

Yeesh!

00:16:04:15 - 00:16:23:05

Joe Reitzug

So 525 is is our median right now. And really that's entry level for most of the areas right in Portland Metro. So assuming that 1,000,000 in 2046 $1 million home is going to be the entry level. How nuts is that?

00:16:23:07 - 00:16:24:21

Makayla Mast

Makes me stomach hurt.

00:16:24:23 - 00:16:28:06

Joe Reitzug

So we're going to double. Almost double.

00:16:28:08 - 00:16:29:04

Makayla Mast

Wow.

00:16:29:06 - 00:16:30:16

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. Yeah.

00:16:30:18 - 00:16:36:23

Makayla Mast

But if you've bought a home recently, you know, that's assuming that your home value is also going to double by then.

00:16:37:04 - 00:16:58:09

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So I guess what we're saying here, people, is, you know, looking back is very easy to do because it's all right there. I'm looking forward is much more difficult. But if we can look at the past 20 years, in the 20 years before that, we kind of know where we're going to be in 20 and homeownership is going to be more difficult.

00:16:58:09 - 00:17:03:02

Joe Reitzug

But if you can get in now, you're going to be in a really good place in the next 10 to 20 years.

00:17:03:02 - 00:17:28:06

Makayla Mast

Yes, yes. Well, so yeah. So monthly mortgage costs in 2046. This is interesting. So this is assuming you put 20% down, you get about a 6% interest rate. You pay about 1.1 million for that home. Your loan is around 880,000. That brings your monthly mortgage payment to 52 or 5800 a month.

00:17:28:06 - 00:17:38:15

Joe Reitzug

Between 5200 to 5800. Yeah. A month. Yeah. Oh yeah. The big question becomes will wages keep up with that.

00:17:38:17 - 00:17:40:11

Makayla Mast

Well no no.

00:17:40:13 - 00:17:40:21

Joe Reitzug

No.

00:17:41:02 - 00:17:43:15

Makayla Mast

Because historically yeah they haven't.

00:17:43:17 - 00:17:58:12

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So those are the numbers that we're looking at. But what we want to look at also is what if it's a bull market. And for everyone that's not stock market savvy. Bull market good. Bear market.

00:17:58:14 - 00:17:59:03

Makayla Mast

Bad.

00:17:59:08 - 00:18:05:13

Joe Reitzug

I've never understood that. If you got a bull running after you, that's not good. Now you got a bear running after you.

00:18:05:13 - 00:18:06:19

Makayla Mast

That's not good. Not good.

00:18:07:01 - 00:18:08:19

Joe Reitzug

Both of these.

00:18:08:21 - 00:18:10:10

Makayla Mast

But that is really funny.

00:18:10:12 - 00:18:37:02

Joe Reitzug

I might have to Google that and see why bull is the better one. But bull is the the what we want. So okay, here in Portland Metro tech expansion, which is forecasted actually to happen for us. So Intel AI more remote workers, all of that. If if tech really takes off, like a lot of people are talking about for Portland Metro, even more so than it has in the last 20 years.

00:18:37:04 - 00:18:42:02

Joe Reitzug

That's going to be a good thing and could push our housing market even higher.

00:18:42:07 - 00:18:42:21

Makayla Mast

That makes sense.

00:18:43:01 - 00:19:12:11

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. Yeah. And the other thing is climate migration to the Pacific Northwest. Sure. This was an interesting point that I had not thought about, but I get it. I get it. I mean we have so many people that we have sold their homes and they've moved to Southern California or Arizona. And at some point in the next 20 years, all of those 115 degree days down in Arizona are going to be 125 days.

00:19:12:12 - 00:19:15:08

Joe Reitzug

And that's just not sustainable for a lot of people.

00:19:15:09 - 00:19:19:07

Makayla Mast

No it's not. That's really interesting. So we'll come back.

00:19:19:09 - 00:19:44:12

Joe Reitzug

Maybe come back. But also there's just so much for the Pacific Northwest to offer. And I think migration, you know, it's always interesting. I love looking at migration patterns and why people make the choices that they make. But I think it's probably a pretty good bet that Portland Metro and the northwest in general is going to do positively better.

00:19:44:14 - 00:19:46:00

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, in most areas, yeah.

00:19:46:02 - 00:19:46:20

Makayla Mast

I would think so.

00:19:46:22 - 00:20:01:23

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So in a bull case, Makayla. And this is going to make you even more uncomfortable. More case scenario prices could be 1.2 to $1.4 million in 2046.

00:20:02:00 - 00:20:05:18

Makayla Mast

Okay, okay. Yeah, but I like that we're considering all these scenarios.

00:20:05:18 - 00:20:13:00

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, that's one scenario. But let's look at the bear case okay. Which is yes, things are not great.

00:20:13:03 - 00:20:15:02

Makayla Mast

And people continue to move out.

00:20:15:07 - 00:20:42:19

Joe Reitzug

So if there's population stagnation or outmigration a negative migration that would be bad. Yeah, that would be bad. We've seen it with, Multnomah County and Portland proper with some of the decisions they've made, the taxes they've got in place, those type of things. Washington County and Clackamas County have not seen that, which is good. My guess is Portland gets their act together with some of this stuff in the next 20 years.

00:20:42:21 - 00:20:44:18

Makayla Mast

They have to. They don't have another choice.

00:20:44:20 - 00:21:08:19

Joe Reitzug

I, I would agree with you on that. Yeah. So if there's a new major zoning overhaul and mass buildout, they open up the urban growth boundary a little bit more, a lot more that would really affect, pricing because we'd have a lot more inventory. The other one is prolonged interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates.

00:21:08:20 - 00:21:16:15

Joe Reitzug

I don't see the population stagnation. You know, negative migration or the amazing major zoning overhauls happening. I don't think that's happening.

00:21:16:17 - 00:21:18:18

Makayla Mast

No, they're pretty tight with the zoning.

00:21:18:18 - 00:21:25:19

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, but prolonged high interest rates, maybe. Right. Yeah.

00:21:25:20 - 00:21:28:09

Makayla Mast

Yeah, that would be a national issue too.

00:21:28:11 - 00:21:29:02

Joe Reitzug

Yes it.

00:21:29:02 - 00:21:30:10

Makayla Mast

Would obviously. Yeah.

00:21:30:12 - 00:21:45:15

Joe Reitzug

So over the next 20 years, if we saw like half of those years at really high interest rates, that's going to keep prices down. So the economists say in this bear case, Mac 800 to 950. And that's a big margin they gave me.

00:21:45:16 - 00:21:46:17

Makayla Mast

That is a big margin.

00:21:46:17 - 00:21:47:18

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. But still.

00:21:47:19 - 00:21:49:02

Makayla Mast

Okay.

00:21:49:04 - 00:22:00:09

Joe Reitzug

If 800,000 is your median price, which ends up being pretty close to the entry level. That's still a number. That is pretty scary.

00:22:00:10 - 00:22:03:11

Makayla Mast

That's a significant mortgage payment.

00:22:03:14 - 00:22:18:23

Joe Reitzug

So yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So gauging in between these you know, the best case scenario is probably 1 million to 1,000,150. I think that's probably a pretty safe bet. Okay. And I would venture to say we're probably going to be on the million 150 side of that.

00:22:18:23 - 00:22:21:08

Makayla Mast

Okay. You're saying it here.

00:22:21:10 - 00:22:22:12

Joe Reitzug

I'm calling it people.

00:22:22:12 - 00:22:27:11

Makayla Mast

We're going to check back in 2046 when we're still inevitably filming this pod.

00:22:27:12 - 00:22:36:15

Joe Reitzug

I am going to be so incredibly old in 2046. You'll have to check back with me and I'll call in from the beach.

00:22:36:17 - 00:22:47:12

Makayla Mast

It's going to say, I hope you're, like, spending half of your time in a vacation spot, and I can visit you wherever you're at in the world, like once a month. And we just do it for fun.

00:22:47:13 - 00:22:48:12

Joe Reitzug

Well.

00:22:48:14 - 00:22:49:14

Makayla Mast

I or we don't.

00:22:49:14 - 00:22:51:18

Joe Reitzug

My plan is Oregon Coast for half the year.

00:22:51:20 - 00:22:53:21

Makayla Mast

Okay, okay. A Kirstie.

00:22:54:00 - 00:22:54:07

Joe Reitzug

Coast.

00:22:54:08 - 00:22:55:08

Makayla Mast

Do you love.

00:22:55:08 - 00:22:57:00

Joe Reitzug

To be a coast in retirement?

00:22:57:02 - 00:22:59:12

Makayla Mast

Yeah. Heck, out of the dream.

00:22:59:13 - 00:23:07:17

Joe Reitzug

So what are the most important economic insights? The biggest shift over the next 20 years is not price.

00:23:07:19 - 00:23:11:11

Makayla Mast

It is the affordability gap expansion.

00:23:11:13 - 00:23:14:06

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, and I 1% agree with that.

00:23:14:06 - 00:23:14:20

Makayla Mast

Yeah.

00:23:14:22 - 00:23:39:21

Joe Reitzug

Right. I mean, people need to be able to afford homes to buy them. And right now in 2026 we already have this huge affordability gap. And if things don't change, that's just going to get worse. It's going to be a problem unless it's full on addressed and it's not going to be addressed locally. It's going to have to be addressed nationally, federally.

00:23:39:22 - 00:23:40:12

Makayla Mast

Right.

00:23:40:14 - 00:24:06:13

Joe Reitzug

So we will see. So the bottom line is median home price, probably 1.11.15. Monthly mortgage is 56 to 5800. Rent for a three bedroom two bath home 47 to 4800. Appreciation rates three and a half to 4%. And, the market conditions supply constrained and affordability stress.

00:24:06:15 - 00:24:10:20

Makayla Mast

So the same issues as today.

00:24:10:22 - 00:24:33:03

Joe Reitzug

So ain't nothing going to change the price and value of the homes. Yes. So, you know, one of the economists had a statement and I, I wanted to kind of share it here. He said ownership will become increasingly exclusive and the defining theme of the next 20 years. Housing becomes a wealth asset first and a shelter second.

00:24:33:05 - 00:24:33:18

Makayla Mast

00:24:33:20 - 00:24:36:18

Joe Reitzug

Which is nuts. Yeah.

00:24:36:18 - 00:24:37:09

Makayla Mast

Yeah.

00:24:37:11 - 00:24:50:19

Joe Reitzug

I mean I get you can go rent and you got a roof over your head and the whole thing, but for so many people to miss out on the economic impact of ownership I think would be awful.

00:24:50:21 - 00:24:55:10

Makayla Mast

And just the pride, there's so many things that come along with it. Yeah. It's the American dream.

00:24:55:14 - 00:24:56:18

Joe Reitzug

Having your place.

00:24:56:21 - 00:24:57:07

Makayla Mast

Yeah.

00:24:57:08 - 00:25:14:20

Joe Reitzug

Right. Yeah. So that is our forecast, people. And we hope we didn't scare you too much. It's not scary. It's just kind of where things are probably going to be. Right. Right, right. Assuming that there's no, you know, crazy issues if things don't go off the deep end.

00:25:14:21 - 00:25:15:23

Makayla Mast

We don't need to go there.

00:25:16:01 - 00:25:19:01

Joe Reitzug

We're not going to go dark. We end with a positive.

00:25:19:04 - 00:25:23:09

Makayla Mast

Yes. As promised, we end with something that we're loving.

00:25:23:11 - 00:25:24:08

Joe Reitzug

Yeah.

00:25:24:10 - 00:25:26:00

Makayla Mast

Do you want to go first? Do you want me to go first?

00:25:26:00 - 00:25:28:06

Joe Reitzug

I want you to go first because I forgot what I'm loving.

00:25:28:06 - 00:25:38:17

Makayla Mast

That's okay. Mine is kind of a two for one, because we're not allowed to talk about the weather, and it's kind of weather related. But have you seen the movie eternity?

00:25:38:19 - 00:25:39:22

Joe Reitzug

Negative.

00:25:40:00 - 00:25:44:08

Makayla Mast

You need to watch it with Stephanie. She'd be so happy with you if you sat there and watch a movie with her.

00:25:44:11 - 00:25:45:05

Joe Reitzug

Am I going to like it?

00:25:45:07 - 00:25:47:20

Makayla Mast

Yes. But it's not one that you would choose to.

00:25:47:23 - 00:25:48:19

Joe Reitzug

Your husband like it?

00:25:48:20 - 00:26:12:16

Makayla Mast

Yeah. Really? Okay. Super sweet movie. So it's about like this woman who died. Her and her husband die, and she has to choose whether to spend eternity with her first husband, who died at war when they were only married for two years, or her husband. She spent 45 years with. And you pick all these different eternities that you can go to, and you only have like a certain amount of time to pick your eternity.

00:26:12:16 - 00:26:28:22

Makayla Mast

There's like Paris, eternity, soccer, eternity, like whatever you, you know, but they have spring eternity. And I just I'm like, oh, I think I would go to spring eternity Springs so much. Yeah. So I'm just loving the current season we're in and good.

00:26:28:22 - 00:26:29:12

Joe Reitzug

Actors in that.

00:26:29:12 - 00:26:38:09

Makayla Mast

One. Cheesy, yes, but I can't. I'm not good with actor names, but two pretty big actors. Yeah, I will watch the movie eternity. Okay, okay.

00:26:38:11 - 00:26:40:04

Joe Reitzug

I will put that on our list.

00:26:40:05 - 00:26:43:20

Makayla Mast

It's a tear jerker, but it's not. It's still like, funny and lighthearted.

00:26:43:21 - 00:26:45:12

Joe Reitzug

Nice. Yeah, I like that.

00:26:45:14 - 00:26:46:01

Makayla Mast

Thanks.

00:26:46:06 - 00:27:00:15

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, we were talking about doing a podcast just on the shows we like. Yes. Makayla share so many great shows with me. She's gotten us on to. I don't know if you guys are watching. Paradise is fantastic. It is a great show, everyone. I know you got.

00:27:00:15 - 00:27:04:23

Makayla Mast

A search on there. Yes, because I cannot shut up about it. Yeah.

00:27:05:01 - 00:27:10:20

Joe Reitzug

My, what I'm loving is not nearly as exciting as that, but I love a good dog park.

00:27:10:22 - 00:27:11:21

Makayla Mast

Oh.

00:27:11:23 - 00:27:28:04

Joe Reitzug

I took my boys to a doggies to a little dog park that I hardly ever take him to, just right on the outside of our neighborhood. And it was a little pebble park. Oh, cute. Yeah. Which my guys initially don't love. Yeah. Like, really? Dad rocks.

00:27:28:06 - 00:27:29:07

Makayla Mast

Yeah, I kind of.

00:27:29:08 - 00:27:35:03

Joe Reitzug

But then they get in there and there's other dogs and they forget about it, and they go running around. But a good dog park is something to behold.

00:27:35:04 - 00:27:36:15

Makayla Mast

It is. No. Yes.

00:27:36:17 - 00:27:48:18

Joe Reitzug

Everyone. It's a good vibe. Everyone there is nice. All the doggies are nice to each other and they're just running around, playing, having fun. Talk about peak positive vibe. Oh.

00:27:48:20 - 00:27:51:05

Makayla Mast

I love it. Yeah, such a good neighborhood vibe.

00:27:51:07 - 00:27:54:19

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, yeah, it really is. So we are both dogs people.

00:27:54:20 - 00:28:09:13

Makayla Mast

So I think dog people. Yeah, yeah, we should do. I just had an idea for a piece of content. We're going to share on our website. Oh, okay. I think we should highlight all the dog parks. Ooh. On a map, an interactive map.

00:28:09:15 - 00:28:10:23

Joe Reitzug

That would be fun, right?

00:28:11:00 - 00:28:11:18

Makayla Mast

Why not? That would.

00:28:11:18 - 00:28:19:14

Joe Reitzug

Be fun. And, Rica, our producer right now, is cringing because she knows that will get thrown into her lap. Sorry.

00:28:19:14 - 00:28:21:05

Makayla Mast

Recap week.

00:28:21:07 - 00:28:23:00

Joe Reitzug

We promise that we'll do most of the work.

00:28:23:00 - 00:28:24:19

Makayla Mast

Love to bring big ideas.

00:28:24:20 - 00:28:29:02

Joe Reitzug

We do bring big ideas for her and she always produces.

00:28:29:03 - 00:28:30:19

Makayla Mast

She does. It's astonishing.

00:28:30:20 - 00:28:37:00

Joe Reitzug

She's the best people. Do yourself a favor. Have a friend like Rick in your life. Yes.

00:28:37:03 - 00:28:42:15

Makayla Mast

Yes. Yes. Million percent. Yeah. So, okay with that, we hope you liked this episode.

00:28:42:15 - 00:29:01:12

Joe Reitzug

Hey, guys, thanks for joining. And, if you've got any questions about this, you can certainly reach out to us at, LivPortland.com live Libby portland.com. There's always lots of good information in the show notes. If you go to podcast on our website, click on that. You'll see the current episode. You can even watch us there.

00:29:01:14 - 00:29:08:02

Joe Reitzug

Or you can go to YouTube and watch us at that location. Be sure to hit subscribe. So you get all the new episodes.

00:29:08:03 - 00:29:10:18

Makayla Mast

Yes, that helps us out a ton, so we appreciate it. Yeah.

00:29:11:00 - 00:29:16:18

Joe Reitzug

Thanks guys. Have a great day. Bye bye.

00:29:16:20 - 00:29:29:18

Makayla Mast

Thanks for joining us today. If you're interested in finding out more about Joe, myself or the LivPortland team, you can go to LivPortland.com. Thanks for giving us a listen and see you next time on the Off the Record podcast.