John: Welcome to Red Carpet Rosters Podcast, your hub for film awards, fantasy advice, betting advice, some history, and the Academy Awards the themselves. I am your host, John Richards of Red Carpetrosters.com, the most comprehensive film awards fantasy site on the net. First of all, I am thrilled to announce that the introductory music you just heard was written by none other than Patrick Richards exclusively for the Red Carpet Rosters Podcast. You can find them on Twitter in the show notes. I'm skipping over the normal recap of awards and film awards fantasy advice and getting straight to the betting advice. My favorite annual article of the year is from Ben Zauzmer, author of the book Oscar Metrics. If you haven't read it, do so. It is a quick read and it is a fascinating read. He developed a mathematical model to predict every feature length category of the Academy Awards. Various inputs to the model, including Critics Awards, guild Awards, reviews, festival awards, and so on give each nominee a probability to win. Each probability is constrained to some to 100%. Boring math talk, because there is obviously a 100% chance of something winning. Betting lines implied probability do not follow this constraint. So comparing these probabilities to sportsbook implied probabilities can snuff out some value. Even this late into the game, for many awards, it's too late to get a ton of value. Sorry about that. You have to bet early to take advantage of lines, and you don't have the fit of Benz Ozmer's model. But anyway, when we get into Oscar's betting lines, they move a lot. A central tenet of betting is to take any bet where the actual probability is more than the implied probability. Theoretically, over time, if you continue to bet where the actual probability is more, you'll come out on top. Now, think of it like this. If a dice is loaded to land on the 6th half the time, and the dice roller is assuming that six has come up a normal 6th of the time and gives you six to one odds because of it, well, you're going to bet on 6th every single time. Because even if you lose, the other half of winning will make up for those losses. Now, this is not a hard and fast rule. This rule seems to indicate that you take the bet any time the actual probability is more than the implied probability. I'm not opposed to it, but if the actual probability is, say, 2% and the implied probability is 1%, I might not be so keen taking that. I don't really like risk of losing 98% of the time, especially since the Oscars are an annual event. Okay, enough about general strategy on betting. Let's take a look at the lines on Bovada and compare them against the probabilities that BenZauzmer developed. Your sports book of choice may have similar lines, so just apply that logic. There also a link to the article from Hollywood Reporter who publishes ben Zarzner's annual article can be found in the show Notes. One last thing before getting into the betting lines the probabilities of Ben's model all seem pretty low, even for the favorites. A favorite could have a 40% chance of winning, which means that that favorite also has a 60% chance of losing. This easily explains why there are usually many surprises on Oscar night. Just because something is the most likely to happen does not imply that it is likely to happen at all. Try to wrap that around your head. Anyway, enough stalling. Let's get to it. I calculated the implied probability and compared it against the actual probability from Bent's model. The first pick is the largest difference between actual and implied probability, and the first is hugely surprising. It comes from the best international race. I'm still predicting all quite on the Western Front to win. I mean, no one in the right mind shouldn't predict it, but I'm sure that sentiment was shared back when the 2006 German film The Lives of Others shocked everyone by beating multiple Oscar nominee Panne's Labyrinth. It could happen again. Ben has tabbed Close with a 29.7% chance of winning. Not the favorite, but 29.7%. That's better than two coin flips, both coming up heads. The Bavada betting line is paying 40 to one let me repeat that, 40 to one, which is an infinitesimal implied probability of 2.4%. So why is the model so high on Close? Well, it's very highly reviewed. At Con. It was nominated for the Palm Dior and won the Grand Prix. It won the National Board of Review for best international feature. It won many other film festival awards. Then again, the lives of others beat Pan's Labyrinth after winning the BAFTA for best foreign language films. So Close has to overcome the fact that All Quiet won the BAFTA for not only best foreign best film. Anyway, All Quiet on the Western Front is going to win, but 40 to one, with an actual probability of nearly 30%, that's worth at least half a betting unit. The second pick is the only actual probability that is higher than 50%. So better than a coin flip. Gabe Blanchette is Ben's favorite at 52.9% chance of winning, while Michelle Yo is only the betting favorite. Gabe Blanchette is currently at plus 140, and it's moved just two days ago is at plus 120. So it's moving more into the positive territory. That's an implied probability of 42%. Blanchette and Yeo have flip flopped from negative to positive territory and vice versa. The model has no recency bias, and Blanchette is more decorated this season than Yo. The SAG win for Yo is not insignificant, and I took Yo before that when she was in the plus territory. It's between Blanchette and Yo. Let's be honest. So the fact that I'm making bets on both limits my upside throughout the season, but nearly guarantees that whatever happens on Oscar night, the wins will be greater than the bets because I took them both when they were only at plus territory. I'm officially predicting Michelle Yo to win, but Betty non blanchette is worth the price here in costume design. Surprisingly, Ruth E. Carter is the favorite to win, but only at 43.1%, which means she has about a 67% of losing. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Catherine Martin of Elvis should be the favorite, especially after the Costume Designer's Guild and BAFTA wins. However, Ruthie Carter has gotten more awards, albeit less prestigious ones, but more nonetheless. She has won already for the first Black Panther movie, so winning again for the second one seems a little out of place. Her betting line right now is plus 200, which is an implied probability of 33% less than Ben's prediction of 43.1%. That's a difference of nearly 10%, so it shouldn't be ignored. But tread carefully. The fourth highest probability given it's also greater than the implied probability. Hey, how many times can I say probability in this podcast? The probability? Probability is Mandy Walker for best cinematography. For shooting Elvis. Mandy Walker became the first woman to win the American Society of Cinematographers ASC for short awards and is only the third woman nominated in Oscar history and will become the first winner if she beats James, friend of All Quiet. The heavy favorite. Mandy's Walker's line has moved closer and closer to even as time has gone by, and at plus 600, I was very tempted to take it, but I didn't have Ben's model. Now it's set plus 300 following her ASC win, and that's still enough to offer value since Ben's actual probability is 27.9% compared to the implied probability of 25%. Those are the top four actual probabilities versus the implied probabilities. There are 17 more. 17. You heard that right. More where the actual probability is not only greater than the implied probability, but also greater than 10% chance of winning. I am strongly considering each of these, even if I don't formally pull the trigger. Also, all of these have an actual probability of more than 10%, but also less than 20%, with two exceptions. Argentina 1985 at plus 700, when Vince model has it at 24.3% chance of winning, obviously on the strength of the Golden Globe win. And the song Lift Me Up Rihanna from Black Panther Wakanda Forever at plus 400, which is nearly equal to Ben's actual probability of 20.1% instead of the implied probability of 20%. Again, these are merely value picks, and you're only expected to hit around three out of 20, so tread carefully here. Then again, if you hit one that's at plus 2500, you've paid for the rest of the bets. All right, in order of difference between actual and implied probabilities, here they are, and these will surprise you. I just have to remind you the actual probability of these happening hovers around 15%, so tread lightly. Anyway. Original score Carter Burwell of the banter of an asset and is at plus 2500. Elvis Sound is at plus 1600. Argentina, 1985 at plus 700. Editing for Elvis for Jonathan Redmond and Matt Via, plus 2500. Directing Martin McDonough. The banshees of Inner Sharon is at plus 2200. The documentary. Both all the beauty in the bloodshed at plus 1000 and all that breathes at plus 2500. Directing Todd Field of tar at plus 2200. John Williams maybe he will win for the fable Men's That's Pain at plus 800. For makeup. Both the Batman and Black Panther Wakana Forever are at plus 2500. Mary Zofrey's of Babylon for best costume design, plus 2500. Original score SunLux Ryan Lotte everything Everywhere, all at Once is at plus 1500. Colin Farrell. Best actor. Many consider it's a two horse race, but according to Ben's model, Colin Farrell is offering good value for the banter's. Event is Sharon at plus 1200 supporting actor Barry Key and the Banter's vinyl Sharon at plus 1200 as well. And lastly, Lady Gaga, hold my hand. Top Gun Maverick winning best Original Song is paying at plus 500, so each of those are roughly ten to 20%. If you hit on one, it might pay for everything else, but just know there are heavy favorites in each of those categories, so tread lightly. Let's talk about some predictions for the 95th Academy Awards. And I wanted on the record that I went 23 for 23, so here we go. Each category I will tell you who will win, whom I think should win, if I was a voter, and who might win instead of the one I'm officially predicting. So let's get to it. The shorts categories are always hard to predict, but I am confident that in documentary short, The Elephant Whisperers will win and should win. It has the right balance of heart, humor and subject matter without being too much of a bummer. If not, the elephant whisperers stranger at the gate could play spoiler. In animated short, I'm predicting the boy, the mole, the fox and the horse to win. What should win and could win if Boy Mole Fox horse doesn't is an ostrich told me the world is fake and I think I believe it. In live action short, an Irish Goodbye will win and should win. Lape Appeal is second in line, if not an Irish goodbye. Best Makeup and Hairstyling will and should go to the Whale for its extensive use of prosthetics and because it got the Best Special Effects Makeup award at the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild Awards. If not the Whale, it'll go to Elvis, who got two of those wins. Catherine Martin of Elvis will win best costume design. Jenny Beaven of Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris should win. But if Catherine Martin's name doesn't get called, ruthie Carter is going to win. Although Catherine Martin is a triple nominee, one of which is for best production design, the win in this category will go to the other Martin, Florencia Martin of Babylon, as it should. But rest assured that a Martin, either Florencia or Catherine will win here in Best Editing. Top Gun Maverick will take another Oscar win when Eddie Hamilton will earn his Oscar, as he should. Paul Rogers is next in line here, and if Paul Rogers does end up winning for editing Everything Everywhere All at once, you might as well ink in Everything everywhere as the Best Picture winner claudio Miranda will win best Cinematography. What's that? He wasn't nominated for shooting Top Gun Maverick. Well, that's embarrassing. Okay. It'll be James friend for all. Quite on the western front. He should win, but Mandy Walker of Elvis could play spoiler here. Guillermo del Toro's pinocchio will win Best Animated Feature. But don't sleep on Marcel, the show with shoes on. Either of these should win, but I would have voted for Marcel despite being a huge Gearmo del Toro fan. Finally, we'll get a stop motion animated film winning this category. All Quiet on the Western Front will win international feature. It should win and Close barely has a chance. 29.7% if you were listening earlier. While the other out nominees really don't have much of a chance against All Quite on the Western Front, Navalny will win Best Documentary. My personal preference is Fire of Love, and it wouldn't surprise me too much if Fire of Love got its names called. Best Supporting actor is going to come on Kiwi Quan. No contest. If by some fluke he doesn't, the only other name here would be Brendan Gleeson. Best Supporting Actress is fairly wide open, but Jamie Lee Curtis has the edge for winning, as she should for me. Gary Condon is likely second and ahead of Angela Bassett, though I know Angela Bassett is the favorite. But the Marvel bias, the sequel bias I think Angela Bassett is actually in third place here. Best Actor is going to Brendan Fraser, and nowhere during the season did I think otherwise. He should win too. However, the biopic bias favors Austin Butler, if not Fraser. Best Actress is Michelle Yeo as I think the Oscars will perfectly match the SAG Awards. Cable and shed is the other one while Ana De Armis, Andre Reisborough and Michelle Williams have no shot. Best adapted screenplay will go to Sarah Pauly and probably should. Although don't be surprised if Edward Berger, Ian Stokel and Leslie Patterson wins for pinning all quite on the Western front. Can they both be should wins? The tie goes to Sarah Pauly's. Women talking. Best original screenplay belongs to Martin McDonough. But the Everything Everywhere could mean Daniels win this one, too. I'm happy with either of these. Again, can they both be should wins? Best director is Daniels. They should win and everyone else is in second place. However, Steven Spielberg is the consensus number two. I disagree with that. If it's not Daniels, it's Martin McDonough. And finally, Best Picture is a no brainer. Come on. Everything, everywhere, all at once is going to win. All quad on the Western Front could be the surprise pick here, especially after their baff to win. But it's everything, everywhere is time to shine. Lock those picks in for your Oscar pool if you're doing it. I'm confident. I'm confident. I'm going 23 for 23. Next podcast, though I promise to do a post mortem and own up to my misses for Best original Song rr's not to not to, written by Mm. Kiravani and Chandrabos will win and should win since it's really the only song to be featured within the plotline of the film. Something that is very important to me if I was an Oscar voter. If not, that Black Panther will Connor forever's lift me up? Written by Rihanna, Tim's Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Gornson is next up. Best original score belongs to Justin Hurwitz for his work on Babylon. Honestly, that should win, although houthka for All Quiet on the Western Front is a close second for me, and a more distant second if her witness doesn't take it. Best visual effects is Avatar the way of Water duh. Right. It should also win if it's not Avatar. Just well, just kidding. No other film has a shot here. Best sound will go to Top Gun Maverick, as it should. If there's a surprise, the surprise will be All Quiet on the Western. Turn on notifications for future episodes of this podcast. Next one will be a post mortem on my predictions, a little Oscars recap and I review the all fantasy teams. This is John with Red Carpet rosters. Podcast. Thanks for listening, see you next time.