Take a listen as I review fantasy relevance of recent releases, highlight some of my favorite mistakes and prank at the Academy Awards ceremonies, and think about fantasy players who should be on your radar.
It's still really early, but it's always fun to speculate.
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RedCarpetRstrs
Email: admin@redcarpetrosters.com
Website: https://RedCarpetRosters.com
Blog: https://RedCarpetRosters.com/blog/
Red Carpet Rosters Fantasy Leagues FAQs: https://redcarpetrosters.com/faqs-rules/
Take a listen as I review fantasy relevance of recent releases, highlight some of my favorite mistakes and prank at the Academy Awards ceremonies, and think about fantasy players who should be on your radar.
It's still really early, but it's always fun to speculate.
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RedCarpetRstrs
Email: admin@redcarpetrosters.com
Website: https://RedCarpetRosters.com
Blog: https://RedCarpetRosters.com/blog/
Red Carpet Rosters Fantasy Leagues FAQs: https://redcarpetrosters.com/faqs-rules/
[Introductory Music]
Welcome to Red Carpet Rosters Podcast, your hub for film awards fantasy advice, betting advice, some history, and the Academy Awards themselves. I am your host, John Richards of RedCarpetRosters.com. Let’s get to it.
Last week we saw the premiere of John Wick: Chapter 4. The John Wick franchise is immensely fun and makes a lot of money. For Film Awards Fantasy Purposes, it can mostly be ignored, but the motion picture itself will carry some fringe value to get action genre points at the ceremonies that do that, of which that are few. It will also probably get nominated for some stunt categories, the most notable being at the SAG awards, but again, stunts are not a popular category among ceremonies. The sound team is also in play, but with other films such as Oppenheimer and Dune: Part II coming out, there won’t be much value here.
Zach Braff’s A Good Person also had a limited premiere. Florence Pugh is well-liked, and she might be worth a late round flier, but I have a feeling she can start the season on waivers and see how she does at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Awards nominations before making a judgment call there.
Two other films, The Lost King and Tori & Lokita were released to theaters, but eligibility concerns will steer you away because they both technically came out last year. Tori & Lokita did win the 75th Anniversary Award at Cannes and was a Palme d’Or nominee, but I’m not sure if these two will make any noise.
This weekend, we’ll see A Good Person get a wider release, and we’ll also see one film to keep an eye on ever since winning Sundance. I’m talking about A Thousand and One. My last two episodes talked about this film, and reviews have been good so far. It has a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I really think Teyana Taylor and first time writer-director A.V. Rockwell are worth drafting come October. I’m not spending a high draft pick on either of them, but they will become a late round target for me. Every year, there are first-time directors who offer a lot of value and become huge sleepers for your team. Think Charlotte Wells last year for her debut Aftersun. This year, there are quite a few first-time directors, so A.V. Rockwell enters a crowded field of first-timers, including Celine Song for Past Lives. There are also so-called critics darlings who do really well in the regular season only to see them get snubbed or stall out after the Oscar nominations. This is important because the Oscars start the playoffs, but these late-round or waiver wire critics darlings can get you to the playoffs. There are plenty of examples from last year. Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis, and Keke Palmer would fit that bill. I would even claim that Colin Farrell would also fit that bill, being the leader in lead actor points until he eventually lost momentum to Brendan Fraser and, if you’re splitting hairs, Austin Butler. Teyana Taylor seems to fit that mold of getting a lot of points in the regular season at all the critics organizations, but just be prepared to have a back-up plan when the playoffs start. It’s still way too early to tell, but that’s the feeling I get now, and I’ve been doing this for a while.
Also coming out this weekend with better than expected reviews, quite frankly, is Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. It has a whopping 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. And this could very well have some fringe value for things like sound and visual effects. But there’s a huge caveat, of course, we have other technical marvels coming out this year too, so temper expectations here.
Let’s talk about some Oscar history, and in the spirit of April Fool’s Day, I will regale some of the mistakes, pranks, gaffes, and jokes at the annual Academy Awards. First some ground rules, when I say mistake, I don’t mean the times where Oscar got it wrong. The first reason is, that’s not really a mistake and we have a huge benefit of hindsight about those things. Also, it’s kind of a matter of opinion anyway. So there will be no Roma should’ve won instead of Green Book or Star Wars should’ve won over Annie Hall or How Green Was My Valley over Citizen Kane or probably the biggest mistake of The Greatest Show on Earth winning over Singin’ in the Rain. C’mon Oscar! No, this will be looking at the ceremony itself. And this is not an exhaustive list. There have been gaffes aplenty. These are just some of my favorite. It’s live television, and anything can happen.
Laurence Olivier doesn’t announce winners
At the 57th Acadamy Awards on March 25, 1985, the legendary Laurence Olivier presented Best Picture. Quick! What are the nominees? Don’t worry, I had to look it up too, but if you were watching the ceremony, you might have had to look it up then too. Listen.
[Clip]
Did you notice the rumbling when he said winner? Listen again.
[Clip]
This is only a mistake if you realize what’s not there. Laurence Olivier did let everyone down just a little bit because he didn’t announce the other nominees! He went straight for the winner. And once that cat is out of the bag, there’s no going back.
Adela Dazeem
At the 86th Academy Awards on March 2, 2014, the film Frozen won two Academy Awards, Best Animated Film and Best Original Song, for that song that will get stuck in your head if I mention its title. You know what it is. After Frozen won its best animated Oscar, John Travolta came on stage to introduce the performer of that one song.
[clip]
Adela Dazeem? I think he meant Idina Menzel. Later Travolta said that the teleprompter switched the name to a phonetic pronunciation instead of her name, which threw Travolta a curveball and he just plowed through it. And that overshadowed the Wicked pun! Idina Menzel and John Travolta then presented the Academy Award for Best Original Song, which went to Selma’s anthem Glory by the way, where Idina Menzel purposely mispronounced John Travolta’s name and then Travolta massaged her face for some reason.
Streaker
This one isn’t a mistake, it’s a prank. Maybe the mistake was not catching him before charging the stage. No I’m not talking about Will Smith’s slap. I’m not going there. I’m sick of it. No, I’m talking about the 46th Academy Award on April 2, 1974 where habitual streaker Robert Opel charged the stage in nothing but his birthday suit. And this was late in the night. It happened while host David Nevin was bringing Elizabeth Taylor on the stage to announce Best Picture. Can you imagine? Here’s a short audio clip.
[clip]
But David Niven had the last laugh…
[clip]
Seth MacFarlane
Speaking of pranks and jokes, there are a lot of jokes that don’t go over well. One prompted a Will Smith slap. No, I’m NOT talking about it, no matter how much you try to make me. I also think of David Letterman’s Oprah-Uma joke that went way too long. I would say jokes at the Academy Awards land maybe half the time. One in particular hasn’t aged well, but I’m not calling it a mistake per se, but it is a joke that didn’t land well to say the very least. And according to the joke teller, it was a self-fulfilling prophecy because many reviewers were preemptively apprehensive on what kind of jokes he would tell at the Oscars. I’m talking about the 85th Academy Awards on Feb 24, 2013 where Seth MacFarlane did a bit on how he was going to ruin the Oscars, and then ruined the Oscars by singing the infamous song “We Saw Your Boobs.”
[clip]
This has aged like milk, but it does go to show if you poke the bear, the bear will poke back.
This was also the ceremony where Jennifer Lawrence, after her priceless reaction to being called out for NOT showing her boobs during the song, where Jennifer Lawrence tripped on her way up to accept her Best Actress Oscar for Silver Linings Playbook.
Sammy Davis Jr
The last three are instances where there was some confusion, to put it mildly, about who the winner was.
At the 36th Academy Awards on April 13, 1963, the Best Score category was actually split between two categories: Best Score – Adaptation or Treatment and Best Score – Substantially Original. Sammy Davis Jr was handed the winner envelope and he announced the winner for Best Score – Adaptation or Treatment went to John Addison for the film Tom Jones. The problem? He was not a nominee for Best Adaptation or Treatment. He was, however, a nominee for Substantially Original Score. Being quick on his feet, Sammy Davis ad libbed to save the moment.
[clip]
Sammy Davis was also announcing the winner for Best Substantially Original Score, but the suspense wasn’t exactly there. He still saved the moment though for a good laugh.
[clip]
Two Franks
At the 6th Academy Awards on March 16, 1934, the legendary Will Rogers hosted the ceremony. After opening the envelope, he announced the winner for Best Director by shouting, “Come up and get it, Frank!” So Frank Capra bolted up out of his seat, and was overjoyed as he started to make his way to the podium to claim his prize. That seems innocent enough and what’s the problem you ask? Well there were two nominees named Frank, Frank Capra and the rightful winner Frank Lloyd. Frank Capra thought he had won for the film Lady for a Day, but Frank Lloyd won for eventual Best Picture winner Cavalcade. The only other nominee for Best Director was named George, so he knew right away he didn’t get it.
Frank Capra was devastated because he had to make the walk of shame back to his table, where everyone was shocked and some were bawling. Listen to Frank Capra regale his experience to David Letterman in 1982.
[clip]
La La Land vs. Moonlight
This one is my absolute favorite, and is probably the biggest gaffe in Oscar history. Before I get into what you already know is my favorite, go look up some other gaffes from the Oscars. There are plenty.
This is also the same year where I completed the so-called Oscars Death Race, where we watch every single nominated film in all categories. This is also the first time I bet on the Oscars, so my emotions were running high too. I’m talking, of course, about the La La Land and Moonlight debacle. Very similar to how Sammy Davis got the wrong envelope, presenters Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty were given the wrong winner envelope at the 89th Academy Awards on January 24th, 2017. Instead they were give the envelope for Best Actress, which earlier went to Emma Stone for her role in La La Land. When Warren Beatty opened the envelope, he was noticeably confused. The envelope said in big letters Emma Stone with smaller printed La La Land underneath it. Did Emma Stone produce this? She’s the winner of Best Picture? Beatty had no idea what to do. He’s on stage. It’s live. What is he supposed to do? He gave the envelope to Faye Dunaway, who thought he was just joking, even calling him, “impossible.” Faye Dunaway glanced at the envelope, saw the words La La Land, and instantly said “La La Land.”
[clip]
Cue the music, cue my disappointment because I told people to bet on Moonlight, and cue the producers to give their acceptance speech.
[clip]
And now cue the correction.
[clip]
Yes, Moonlight had actually won. The producer you just heard was Jordan Horowitz, who took the news well and handled it quite gracefully if you ask me. Especially considering that is still his only Oscar nomination. Nevertheless, he set the record straight, and the Moonlight team were able to give the rightful speech they deserved.
[clip]
And there you have it, some of my favorite moments in Oscar history with mistakes, pranks, gaffes, and jokes, or lack thereof.
Oscars Futures
It’s way too early to bet on the Oscars. I don’t see any value or any pick. I highly doubt that Martin Scorsese made a bad film in Killers of the Flower Moon, which will premiere at Cannes Film Festival in May, but to bet on it for Best Picture right now is a stretch, even if it is paying 5 to 1 odds. As of this taping, Bovada doesn’t have any Academy Awards lines, but BetUS has lines on the Best Picture. Let’s take a look at the top 11, since the line for the 10th and 11th favorites are the same. If we assume, which won’t happen, the top 10 favorites are the Best Picture lineup, here are the films to keep on your radar.
Killers of the Flower Moon +500
The Color Purple +550
Past Lives +600
Dune: Part II +700
Maestro +700
Blitz +850
The Killer +850
Ferrari +950
Lee +950
AND +1100
Oppenheimer +1100
It’s probably safe to assume Oppenheimer gets a nomination for Best Picture, which would leave out AND.
Again, I’m not betting on any of these, and it’s worth noting that none of these have released in theaters. Past Lives did premiere at Sundance, but literally no one has seen the rest of these. Some of these may not even release this year.
However, some early draft picks will probably be spent on some working on these films. So I’m going to try to take a look at all these movies and pick one person working on that film that should be worthy of a draft pick.
Killers of the Flower Moon is a no-brainer. Martin Scorsese doesn’t always have a writing credit for his films, but in this one, he does, making him an attractive option for double dipping points. Look for Martin Scorsese to go in the first round of fantasy drafts.
The Color Purple is a musical adaptation directed by Blitz Bazawule. Kris Bowers is writing the original score, and I’m sure there will be some songs that get Oscar buzz coming from this film. Despite all of the names that come off the draft board for this film, I think Fantasia Barrino will be the first as Lead Actress.
Celine Song will be the person to own for her debut Past Lives. She might be this year’s Charlotte Wells. But if she is getting buzz this early, six months before the fantasy season begins, maybe it won’t be a surprise, and her draft stock could be rising because of it. Trying to predict which debut director will be fantasy relevant is hard, but if Celine Song is available in a middle round, I’m snagging her.
Dune Part II will be a technical masterpiece, so drafting technical for the Dune sequel makes the most sense. I’m not wild about drafting technical early. They’re kind of like relief pitchers in fantasy baseball, you can afford to wait to draft them. All the technical directors are back for the sequel, including Oscar winners Hans Zimmer and Greig Fraser. If I had to pick one fantasy player to be on my team from Dune: Part II, it would probably be Greig Fraser since having a strong cinematographer on your team is a solid strategy.
Maestro is Bradley Cooper’s second film, and he also plays the lead. When A Star Is Born, Bradley Cooper was taken first overall, especially since it was his debut. He was a valuable contributor, and he had cross-eligibility. He has the potential to be a true triple threat in points, and he can be in your Actor slot or your Director/Screenplay slot. It’s not completely outside the realm of possibility that he earns three Oscar nominations for acting, writing, and directing, which is 18 points in that first round of the playoffs. Bradley Cooper will likely be a first round draft pick, if not the first pick off the board.
The movie Blitz is the latest from Steve McQueen, director of the Oscar winning film 12 Years a Slave. It takes place during the London Capital building bombing in World War II. I’m gonna go against the grain and say that Production Designer Adam Stockhausen should be on your radar. This is a period piece, but Adam Stockhausen has the potential of being a triple threat. He’s the preferred production designer for Wes Anderson, and if Wes Anderson’s two films come out along with Blitz coming out, those are three films with rich production design all from one person. It’s hard to find that value, so put Adam Stockhausen on your fantasy radar.
David Fincher should be releasing his Netflix film The Killer, which stars Michael Fassbender as the titular character. However, I’m going to go after the composers and frequent Fincher collaborators, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. I always try to get one of them no matter what, and they are composing scores for two movies again this year. The other film is Luca Guadagnino’s film Challengers, starring Zendaya. Two movies more more opportunities for points, and since David Fincher and Luca Guadagnino are very familiar names with film awards fantasy, reserve a spot for Trent Reznor or Atticus Ross.
Ferrari stars Adam Driver playing a famous Italian. Sound familiar? House of Gucci anyone? Anyway, Michael Mann is directing Adam Driver in a biopic about Enzo Ferrari. Oscar likes biopics, but I’m not so sure anything should be drafted early. If I wait on actor, though, Adam Driver is serviceable. He will do just fine as a middle to late round selection for Actor.
Speaking of biopics, Kate Winslet plays Lee Miller, a World War II photographer, in the film Lee, directed by Ellen Kuras. Ellen Kuras probably won’t be eligible for breakthrough points because this is her second feature. Her first feature, though, was the feature documentary Betrayal, which was nominated for an Oscar. Kate Winslet should be on your radar for this one, but so should Alexandre Desplat, who is also composing the scores, yes plural, for Barbie and Asteroid City.
I’m going to skip AND because it’s a Lorgos Yanthimos film, and I have my doubts that both of Yorgos Lanthimos’s films AND and Poor Things will release this year. They are both in post-production, but like I said, I have doubts on release dates. Also, the plots of AND is under wraps, so I don’t want to speculate here.
Which leads me to Oppenheimer. Is this Christopher Nolan’s turn? Maybe, but if anyone is on my radar for this film, it’s Cillian Murphy for playing Oppenheimer.
And there you have it. Be looking for more advice on your film awards fantasy team in future episodes.
Turn on notification for future episodes of this podcast. Thank you to Patrick Richards for writing the show music exclusively for Red Carpet Rosters Podcast. This is John. Thanks for listening. See you next time.