Early Betting Picks and Gotham Nominations Reaction

I take an early look at the early betting markets, and there are some valuable lines even at this stage of the Oscar race! Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress all have something to offer.

I also take a brief look into the Gotham Awards Nominations to see if you can help your fantasy team by some of the names called (or not called) at the Gothams Nomination announcement.

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Transcript

John: 0:17

Welcome to Red Carpet Rosters podcast. Your hub for film awards, fantasy advice, betting advice, some history and the Academy awards themselves. I'm your host, John Richards of Redcarpetrosters.com. And welcome to this short, bonus episode where we highlight early betting picks. If you followed me. Last year, you came out like gangbusters on the blog. Here are the notable hits. I suggested Jamie Lee Curtis thrice at plus 160 plus 450 and a whopping plus 1800 before the nominations. Even came out daniels when it was paying seven to one. Ruth E. Carter at plus 200 michelle Yo at plus 200 plus 190 plus one and 110 and -125 everything everywhere. All at once. To win best picture was something like -2000 before Oscar night I Suggested It at -165 and plus 150 Top Gun Sound at plus 125 brendan Fraser five Times 121 ten -150 and -150 Again And finally -185. And then the short film an Irish goodbye at plus 115 and plus 110 and lastly, kihi kwan was something like -3000 or something absolutely. Ridiculous. I got him. At -275 above my -200 Threshold. But I knew I could lock that one in early. So make sure you're subscribing. So you don't miss out on these betting picks because they change often and change quickly. I don't have the luxury of living in a state that allows Oscar betting on some sites like DraftKings. So I prefer to use Bavada, BetUS and my bookie. If you find similar ODS at your preferred sports book, then gravy. Full disclosure I don't really like betting too early on the Oscars. There are just way too many Unknowns. But that won't stop me at taking A live look Here. That's right, I'm looking as live as I can, so there will be little editing of this Podcast. I'm going to record upload post. All right, let's do this. As Always, I will give you the betting line, the implied probability from that betting line, and unless I specify otherwise, I'm assuming one Full betting Unit. I think most people would agree that this is a two horse race between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. The betting lines also point that direction. So let's take a look at the betting lines on Bavada best picture for Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon. I like these odds. They're both above plus 100. I think it's a two horse race. I think Oppenheimer has the lead right now and Oppenheimer on Bavada is Paying Plus 150. That is an implied probability of 40% killer To The Flower Moon At Plus 300, which is a 25% implied Probability. Now, again, if I put bets on both of these they both obviously can't win. But since they're both above plus 100. Even if I put money on both and I'm convinced that these are the two horses that are going to win, it's either going to be Opie or it's going to be Killers, then I still make money. Now, if you want to add a little bit more risk just put your money behind one or the other, that's fine. But my advice is a small gain is better than a big loss. So I'm going to bet both on Oppenheimer and killers of the flower moon at plus 150 and at 300 because even if oppenheimer wins, I'm still at plus 50 in a sense. All right, the other races are all over the place. Best actor the favorite is killian Murphy. I'm calling it right now. Killian Murphy is going to win and right now the betting line is in the minus it's at -120 which means if you put in $120 you're going to get back $100 net that's an implied probability of 54 and a half percent. I really think as the season goes on that line is going to move more into negative territory. So I'm going to go ahead and lock that in now and if it moves in more negative territory then I'm just going to leave it alone and just have solace that I got it early. So I'm just going to lock that in now and probably ignore it unless it somehow goes up or something. In the season indicates that the ODS change is justified the best actress is really all over the place and I don't like any of the bets. The two favorites across the board are Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. They're both paying at plus 150 and that's an implied probability of 40% each. That also means that the implied probability of one of them winning is 80% and I just don't see that it could be a surprise win for a net binning. It could be a somewhat less surprising win for Carrie Mulligan. Annette Benning is paying at plus 600. Carrie Mulligan is at plus 500. That's an implied probability of 14 and 17% respectively. That adds up to more than 20%. So if it's really a two horse race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone, the field implied probability is 20%. The numbers just don't work. The math does not work to bet on best actress right now this early. So my advice, leave best actress alone for now also Emma stone missed at the Gotham nominations. Gotham nominations really isn't that much of a predictive validity for the Oscars. But having said that, missing at the Gothams does hurt her stock a little bit so I'm just not convinced on any of these actresses at the current lines. Best director though I think it's Christopher Nolan's to lose and the betting markets also tend to do that Bavada is paying at -160 that's an implied probability of 61 and a half percent and that's about my limit right now. I really hate taking favorites early in the season, but again kind of like with killian Murphy I think that line is going to move more into negative territory as the season progresses. So I'm going to go ahead and pull the trigger here and ignore it until we get closer to the Oscars. Martin scorsese, on the other hand, is paying plus 200. I think that's pretty good value. Not enough for me to pull the trigger, though, so tread lightly if you're a Martin scorsese fan, which I am as well. But plus 200 is not the right price for me. Also in the best picture race for Bavada, I feel like there's only two movies that could pull like a coda like upset at the oscars, and those two movies are past lives and barbie. Past lives is at plus 1000. So that's ten to one ODS, that's an implied probability of 9%. And barbie is paying at plus 1800, which is an implied probability of 5%. I don't like those ODS. Those implied probabilities are pretty low. But I want to know a little bit more as the season progresses because those ODS aren't going to move that much from that. It might dip into the triple digits plus category. Maybe it'll go like plus 700 or plus 600 at that time. I'm still willing to take those ODS. I don't want to throw pennies at something that I know I'm probably going to lose. I really, truly think it's a two horse race and unless the season indicates otherwise, I'm going to leave all the other pictures alone. I just don't like them. Well, I like the pictures. I don't like the value of the betting markets. Let's put it that way. All right, so let's move to the other sports book at bet us. It's a two horse race for best picture oppenheimer and killers of the flower moon. But this time oppenheimer is actually at -125 that's an implied probability of 55.6%. I don't like it. I think it's two horse race. I want to vote both on oppenheimer and killers of the flower moon. And if I bet on both one unit each and oppenheimer wins, I'm actually losing a little bit of money. So that's not a wise hedge to make. Killers of the flower moon is paying at plus 165. That's 37.7%. I don't like it. I'm staying away from the bet US's betting lines. On best picture just for comparison purposes. Past lives is paying plus 1100 and barbie is paying plus 1400. Again, staying away from those. Christopher Nolan and Martin scorsese, though, are paying pretty good. I'm not going to necessarily put a lot of units behind Martin scorsese, but Martin scorsese is paying five to one. So I would put half a unit on martin scorsese just because. Plus 500 is excellent value for killers of the flower moon. And Christopher nolan is paying at plus 110. That's an implied probability of 47.6%. I think he has much better than a coin flip chance to win. So I am definitely going to bet on Christopher nolan at the bet us line of plus 110. Going to best actress. Lily gladstone is paying at plus 350. Now, that is much better than the value that Bavada had at plus 150. Lily Gladstone at plus 350. That's an implied probability of 22%. A little bit better than one in five. I like that value. But again, it's early. So if I'm going to bet on this, I'm going to ignore it. Unless the season tends to go and pull me a different direction. And for comparability. Annette bidding is at plus 700. Carrie Mulligan is at plus 600. I'm staying away from those best Actor at bet us is killian Murphy at -150 that's my Limit I'm Willing to take at -150 that's 60% Implied probability. I will go ahead and take that. But if it moves any more negative territory I'm leaving it alone. Bet. US also has supporting actress and supporting actor. ODS the only one of the three I'm going to cover. So here Lily Gladstone is in the best supporting actress and best actress lines for Bet US. So killers of Flower Moon. Their marketing team is pushing Lily Gladstone as lead. So that's where the money is. But for supporting Actress, somehow she gets a nomination. Or the season progresses. Do not take Lily Gladstone in any sports book for best supporting actress. They're going to campaign for her in Best actress. Lead actress? So if you see any Lily Gladstone lines for best supporting actress, ignore it. On the other hand, I firmly believe that Divine Joy Randolph is the favorite supporting actress to win. She's in the holdovers. I really think she's the front runner and she's going to pull a victory here. She's paying at plus 300. I am all over that. That is an implied probability of 25%. I think she's over that. I am putting one, maybe even two units on Divine Joy Randolph at plus 300. And in the supporting actor race, I think, is Robert Downey Jr's. To Lose. And the betting markets also think that he's paying at plus 100. That's 50%. But those supporting actor and supporting actress races they can be pretty unpredictable. I don't like any ODS that are plus 100 or lower. That's implied probability of 50%. I don't think that's enough value. However, Ryan Gosling got a surprise. Gotham nomination. He's paying plus 1000. I don't think he's going to win. I think he's definitely going to get a nomination. But I do think that he has more than 9% chance of winning, especially if he starts getting a lot of these precursor awards. I'm going to go ahead and put some half a unit on that plus 1000 line for Ryan Gosling, best supporting actor. And lastly, the last sports book is my Bookie at Best Actor Killian Murphy is Paying -120 so to Recap Killian Murphy is in the negative Territory at all three Sports Books that really tells You All you need to Know that He's The Favorite I took him at -150. It's a no brainer at this point. That I'm going to take him at -120 for the my bookie sports book best actress. I don't like any of these lines. Emma Stone is at plus 137. Lily Gladstone is at plus 152. Carrie Mulligan at plus 285, which is a lot less than the other sports books. And Annette Benning at plus 350. Don't like any of those. So stay away from the best actress on my bookie. Christopher Nolan has a -145 I took Christopher Nolan at -160 I have to take him at -145 if -160 is my limit then of course I'm going to take -145 Mars scorsese is at plus 200. I'm staying away from that and the two horse race. For Best Picture at my bookie. Oppenheimer and killers of the flower moon. Oppenheimer is in the plus territory. So that means that gives me permission to take them both. And I will still end up in the black if even Oppenheimer wins. Oppenheimer at plus 120 and Killers of the Flower Moon at plus 250. So that's the betting market right now. I will have a table for you on the blog. I will link to the blog in the show notes. That way, you can kind of see where the betting markets are. Get notifications for this podcast. That way you have the most current betting market insight for your wallet. Now, speaking of the season, the regular season kicked off with the Gotham Awards nominations. Last Tuesday. The Gothams are always quirky and full of surprises. In my humble opinion, there are no snubs at the Gothams. There are only surprises. You can find the Gotham Awards nominations online. So I'm not going to hash them out here. It's also worth noting that Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon did not submit their films for consideration. But that didn't stop Lily Gladstone, who plays Molly Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon, from getting a nomination from another film, Unknown Country. This helps her. This boosts her stock. Even if it wasn't for killers of the flower moon, that means that people are paying attention to Lily Gladstone. And that is not a bad thing in the Oscar season. I've always considered her a lock for an Oscar nomination. And anyone owning Gladstone in their fantasy leagues has to be happy about those bonus points at the Gotham Awards nominations. Another name whose stock just rose is Ryan Gosling, who was nominated for Barbie. I absolutely loved Barbie, but if the Gothams nominated him, I feel like he can get nominated literally everywhere. Ryan Gosling owners have to be ecstatic about this nomination because it certainly bodes well for future know future points. I always say to not overreact with the Gothams. This is me overreacting to the Gothams. But if you're in a league that skips matchup number one, bump Ryan Gosling up in your pre draft rankings. Remember I said there are no snubs at the Gothams? I still think that's true. But where in the world was Poor Things? It only got nominated for best international feature. No. Emma Stone? No. Mark Ruffalo? No. Willem Dafoe? No. Tony McNamara for writing it. I'm not overreacting, but anyone who went heavy into poor things has to be disappointed with their points after the Gotham Awards. And is it too early to sound the panic alarm on Core Jefferson? Writer director, debut writer, director of American fiction. He was supposed to be the market corner, if you will, with Celine Song of Past Lives, but he failed to get a nomination for American Fiction, while Celine Song got a nomination for Past Lives. Did I pick the wrong debut director and screenwriter? If you listened to my podcast earlier, we tabbed AV Rockwell as a sleeper pick for her debut 1001. Well, she got nominated and 1001 itself got nominated for best feature. If AV Rockwell is undrafted in your league, put in a waiver request right now. If you have Core Jefferson on your team, don't drop him just yet. Again, don't overreact to a Gotham miss. I'm also calling it right now. Past Lives is going to win the Gotham's best feature. If any movie can pull a coda like upset at the Oscars, it's Past Lives. I don't think it will, because coda upset Netflix's The Power of the Dog. For reasons you already know, netflix and Rapid Fire. Glad to see 20 Days in Marriott Pool get a nomination. And I still think it's a dual threat for points being Ukraine's official Oscar submission. Glad they cloned Tyrone. Got some love with a Jamie Foxx nomination. Don't discount. Are you there, God? It's me, Margaret. The documentary Judy Bloom Forever got nominated for a Critics choice award for best documentary, and now Rachel McAdams shows up with a best supporting nom here for her supporting role in Are You There, God, it's Me, Margaret. This bodes well for her, as well as youth actress Abby Ryder Fortsum, another sleeper pick from my last podcast. Tayyana Taylor, another sleeper pick from last podcast, also showed up in the nominations for lead performance. Anatomy of a Fall had a good showing with best international and best screenplay for Justine Triet and Arthur Harari. Sandra Huller also picked up a nomination, but that was for The Zone of Interest. This does seem to solidify her as a dual threat for both her roles in The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall. Speaking of the Zone of interest, why did I not start Jonathan Glazer? I drafted him. I thought, oh, he won't get nominated at the Gothams. And of course he did. Hey, that's it for me. Turn on notifications for future episodes of this podcast. Thank you to Patrick Richards for writing the show music exclusively for Red Carpet Rosters podcast. This is John. Thanks for listening. See you next time.