.png)
Footy Form Guide Podcast
An AFL podcast for the punters.
Sign up to betsniper through this link to get a discount and help support the show https://bet-sniper.com/?ref=corey
Footy Form Guide Podcast
Season 2026 Round 22 Preview
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
The AFL home-and-away season is entering its final stretch, with just three rounds remaining and every result carrying huge finals implications. .
Harro and Walley preview every AFL Round 22 clash, breaking down the biggest storylines, key matchups and the games set to shape the finals picture. Plus, we dive into the massive Wildcard showdown between St Kilda and Carlton.
If you're looking for AFL Round 22 tips, predictions, best bets, betting insights and expert analysis for every game, Footy Form Guide has everything you need.
Well I'm welcome to another episode of the Footy Form Guide Podcast. I'm of course your host, Wally, joined as always by my good mate Harrow. How are you, mate?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, going well, Wally, and um just take the punting hat off for a second. Saturday night was something else, wasn't it? Uh not been a season or actually hasn't been a decade that as a blues fan you can really just sit back and relax and enjoy it. But um they put on an absolute show, so that was definitely the the highlight of the footy for me from the weekend.
SPEAKER_02Matt, it was an absolute cracker. It was funny because I actually um I actually uh had uh a house full of people over and there was a Carlton family and a Brisbane family amongst it. And it was it was it was a it was a great night for half the room, but it was good fun watching and it was thoroughly enjoyable.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, it was uh that was a that was a beauty. So that made the weekend very enjoyable. Um just as a fan and yeah, haven't been able to enjoy the footy as a fan for a for a fair while. So that's great.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, very good, mate. Well we'll get stuck straight into it. Let's talk about the uh the good and the bad on the punt. What were our highlights for the weekend?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so we um we we obviously the best bet was a good one for us on the weekend Wally. That got up. Um that um and that was sort of maybe the one lucky bit of luck we had for the weekend because obviously we needed the D's to win by six points or more. They won by nine, actually lost unexpected scoring. So um it's always welcome when you get one sort of go your way, mate. And that's so that was a good one. Um outside of that, we had the overtotal points in the blues versus lions, which was a very easy watch. Uh, we what else did we have? Just looking through it here, Wally. Um oh yeah, we had Frio to beat the line against the doggies. Um, that one worked out really nicely for us as well. There was a bunch of player stuff, which I won't go into. They kind of split themselves down the middle in the end. Um, so um outside of that, mate, they're the main highlights for us.
SPEAKER_02Low lights? What was uh low lights?
SPEAKER_00We had um the Eagles to beat Richmond, mate, and um, you know, they've kicked nine goals 19. So that was a little bit of a bit of a bugger for us, that one, mate. And you know, you look at it and you go, what can you do? Side comes out and kicks nine nineteen. Not only did that happen, but Richmond probably could kick maybe two goal of the year nominees early as well. So I felt like we were a little bit stiff there. Um, we also had uh Port to beat the Giants. That one didn't go our way either, mate. And um just yeah, Port just were no good, um, unfortunately. So they're they're our lowlights um that stick out for me over the weekend anyway.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, very true. I was I was at that game on Sunday at the G, and um I'll tell you it was weird. Um very unusual at the G. There was a lot of wind swirling around, the ball was moving around a lot. Uh, and I I just couldn't believe it. You don't usually see that at the G. But uh I I mean that that I think early there was a little bit of that kicking to the punt road end. There was a few misses because of that early, but I think you adjusted that pretty quickly. I don't think we can blame that for the 9-19, but it was an interesting one. All right, Mart, we're gonna get stuck into the selection table here. That's back this week because Hall of Fame is taking a rest this week. We had no NOMs last week. And I'll tell you what, if we don't have one this week, I have another retrospective one. And uh it's not a Western Bulldogs player this time. So we'll see how this week goes. Um, a couple of things on the in column for me. A genuine Coleman medal race, and we have a bona fide Coleman medal race. We've got Charlie Curno out on 57, he he's he's four ahead, and then you've just got this Palleton behind him of Ben King, Gunston, uh, Nick Watson. Like, I'll tell you what, unless you just mindlessly uh hate Hawthorne and short people, uh, I'd you'd be you'd be thinking Nick Watson winning it would actually be really cool. Like, and that's if you know if you don't you don't have to, but like it just would be a really, really cool thing. And then you've got Amos and Tracy both there as well, and Logan Morris a little bit further down, but um it's actually a genuine race. I think Charlie, just with the run home that Sydney have and the fact he's got that, and you think there'd be a they haven't worried about this all year, but there would be a level of trying to feed him when they get into winning positioning games just to try and get him that medal because he did cop criticism in the first half of the season, so I think that'd be important. I think that uh yeah, it's gonna it's hard for the Wiz. I reckon I reckon the Wiz has probably got to kick about 15 goals to win it in three games of footy, and one of those is against Brisbane, another one's against Collingwood. Like it's not it's not easy.
SPEAKER_00It sets up for a for a brilliant last um afternoon of footy on Sunday, August 23, doesn't it? Because Charlie plays at 3.20, and then the Hawthorne game against West Coast at 7.20. So, you know, if there's a Hawthorne player within reach, oh that'll be that could be that will be great.
SPEAKER_02Like if if if if Gunston, for example, needs seven, go and find seven plus because they or and a five and six, because if he doesn't get there, he'll only fall short by a bit. And I don't think there's I don't think West Coast is really going to bother about just trying to do the Clarkson players behind the ball on Fev in 08. I think it'll be more of like just trying to put in a decent performance for their last game in front of their fans. I don't think so. I think that you could be, yeah, it could be it could be a good betting proposition that one, even if they don't get there, just if they try and get there and they fall short. Um, because you would think by that last game it one of one of those hawthorn blokes should be within sort of seven or eight of Kerno.
SPEAKER_00So you're also gonna get yeah you're also gonna get the opportunity to back Kerno that day because he's gonna go into that game not knowing how many he needs, and especially if it's a dead rubber. Um, you know, so you could even be having yourself a a little multi of like Curno six, Gunstan six, that sort of thing could be pretty good fun.
SPEAKER_02What do the Hawks do if Charlie if um both gunners and and the wizard are five behind? That surely they try and kick six and just draw it. Um anyway, a lot to look forward to. So I'm looking forward to that. And that leads me to my next in. I reckon I was only critical for a little bit of this, and I've said this already that I like this now. I was only critical because I might this is a distraction by the AFL, and 100% it was. That's what they do. They muck up and then they try and distract us, and then they make more errors in the process. Um, but the wildcard round now has done what the the original hope was, uh, which was it's extended the season somewhat. It is now exciting. There is a prospect of Carlton Collingwood playing instead of having a bye weekend at the MCG in front of what will probably be 90,000 people. That is that is genuinely a chance to happen now. There is like this Sunday night now, St Kilda Carlton is huge. It's like a mini final into the other mini final. That if Carlton win, it gets really hard for St Kilda. Do you know what I mean? Like this is this is if St Kilda wins, they're both still in it. Like, there is there is a lot of different angles here. And the other thing that's made it interesting is a little bit of the the stumbles from the from the top four with Brisbane, with Adelaide, um, Melbridge Long, all teams losing games that maybe we thought they wouldn't. Now, any one of those four teams could fall into the wildcard side, that seven side. And and one of them's going to. It's just shit. Who would have thought if Brisbane lose to Hawthorne this week, it could be Brisbane. Because the other the others have favorable draws. So it's it the wildcards getting us going. It's really, really exciting.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02But Harrow, when there's ins at the selection table, there has to be outs. And I've got a couple out. So the first one here, and this is more of a personal one, but I think that other clubs could relate to this. Now, I understand the financial requirement for clubs to, you know, go and get sponsors and make money, and I get that. But also, as a fan, you're allowed to just care about your team and their footy and all the things that go along with that. And I don't think Hawthorne is worried. I don't think we're scraping the bottom of the barrel. Hawthorne are already talking now and looking at options, including Wellington, Cairns, Canberra, and other areas for where they will move games to and sell games to after the Tassie deal's done. Harold, I just want more games in Melbourne. I just want to watch more of my team play in Melbourne. The Tassie thing was fun for a while. I went down a number of times. I loved going down to Tassie. It was all good. The only thing with the Tassie thing is, I don't know, this year's looked a little different. I think when it's coming to an end, I think it's been a little bit more of a we've got to go down to Tassie, we've got to play this game down there, we've got to come back, we're not at the G. I don't know, mate. We've had two games in a row now. Like North were actually all right, but but Hawthorne were not at their best down there at all. Got pollaxed by Melbourne in the first half. These are unhawthorne-like Tasmania performances, one against the decent side and one against the side that has been going really badly. That says to me that maybe it's just getting a little hard. And, you know, when you know the end's coming and you check out, like, hey, when you get your hang your notice in at work in a couple of weeks, those last two weeks aren't your most productive. I'm just saying that maybe, maybe that we just shelf all of that and just play all of our footy in Melbourne, and then you're only traveling outside of like the four times or five times like everyone else is, and it's a really good, it's a really good result. So that's that's the thing for me, Harrow. And then speaking of Melbourne, maybe we've got to have more of those games at Marvel. Because my last doubt is the MCG AFL members. I've said this before, it's it's actually shit house. The MCC do not look after the Southern Stand at all. And they run the joint. The AFL doesn't run the joint, right? They run Marvel, they don't run the MCG. I went there, I know it's a low crowd game. The only bar, they've only got one bar in the AFL members now, Harrow, um, that's on the concourse on level one. They'd have a bar upstairs and they've got a downstairs, like you can walk in an actual bar, like a pub bar. They shut the actual place where you go and get drinks. Most of the food places are shut as well. There's like one or two open. Here's the funny thing, though, about this, Harrow. The bar they shut is one of these AI automated bars where you scan your card, you go in, you self-serve, and you walk out with the drinks. So it's the only bar in the place that doesn't require a heap of staff, and that's the one they decide to fucking shut. Explain that to me. Not the bar downstairs where there's you need all the people. We'll shut the bar where you literally only need one person on the end just to go, ah, are the drinks, are the cans open? Are the cans open? And I'll tell you what else, Harrow, you don't need to check if the cans open. Because you know what? No one is doing? Nobody is going into the MCG and paying 14 bucks for a beer to go and take it outside of the stadium. Because every other place you can buy a beer in Melbourne is cheaper than inside the MCG. So you don't even need to check. So you could operate this bar without any humans and save on staffing costs and make it easy for all of us. But instead, you know, dickheads. Anyway, that's that's that's that's my rant harrow.
SPEAKER_01Like, you know what?
SPEAKER_02Do you know what else I did enjoy though? We went there because it was Richmond West Coast. Um, we I went with the family. We just go, hey, we're just gonna go. Jack's Jack's godfather's Richmond, him and his dad. We're going, okay, let's go. It's a nice day. We'll have a couple of MCG beers if you can find them. And we got there, and Jack's like, oh, can I get like he goes, Oh, I didn't bring a hat or something. Can I? And I went, mate, we're at a Richmond West Coast game, mate. They're not gonna sell Hawkex merch. And he goes, Can we go and check? So we go to the merch store. Not like it's not like the MCG store, so it's not the shop that it's the merch store, like they sell the two teams merch on the day, yeah, mate. Four Hawthorne hats, four beanies, um, a scarf, all this Melbourne stuff. It was like every other team, and then a couple of Richmond and West Coast things, which I did find funny. But anyway, a good day at it, the G had, um, even though I had to like do do my own like trek to go and find a couple of Asahi tins. But uh, mate, all good. All right, shall we get it? Are you all right, mate? Are you all right? Yeah, I'm good, I'm good, I'm good. I just I just feel like because the MCC run the MCG Harrow, they just forget about the the general public a fair bit. And their side, their their members area is beautiful and it's great, and it's amazing. But then the rest of the G you go to and it's still it apart. Ponsford's pretty good, but the whole the whole Shame One stand needs and deserves an upgrade. The minute they put that great man's name on it, they should have they need to upgrade it. That needs an upgrade. And if you're AFL members, it's not cheap. You pay as much for AFL membership as you do for MCC, and you don't get it all year round, you're only getting it for the AFL season. So, at what point do you actually get looked after? That's my only point, Harrow.
SPEAKER_00Well, if they're gonna name it after Shane Warren, you should be able to have a dart while you're sitting there watching the footy. Uh you know, absolutely you should.
SPEAKER_02Full 24-7. Do you know what else? I will say this. Do you know what I just realized? And in the um uh in the sun stand, no dimmies at the um at the food outlets.
SPEAKER_00Is that weird? Mate, I I rarely get anywhere near the uh footy unless it's a grand final day. That's about the only time I ever go. So I'm probably not the expert on all this stuff, to be honest. But I mean, you should be able to get dimmies at the footy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, sure, why not? Cup of cup of dimmi, cup of three dimmies. Come on, steamed or fried. Buyer's choice. Anyway, let's get stuck in the footy because apparently that's why we're here, Arrow. Before we do, if you haven't checked out our Discord, the information's on our Insta. It's pinned to the top of our X slash Twitter. Check it out. A lot of cool stuff goes on there, heaps more information. We do a Friday morning uh pod, which goes out on Friday, which is like the update following teams and things like that. So it's it's a good experience. Go check it out as we come towards the end of the season. And I'll tell you what now, Harold, we're already planning some stuff in extra. It's gonna be absolutely huge. And also, if you're watching it on YouTube, make sure you're subscribing so you get the notifications. Obviously, it helps us out. Um, like and share. All right, let's get into this. Western Bulldogs North Melbourne uh Thursday night. The dogs are $1.37, North Melbourne's $3.12. The line is 17 and a half points here. Um, I watched North up close, Harrow. I had to take my Hawks hat off and ask a couple of neutral mates, and they were like, it was actually a decent, it wasn't shocking. It was a decent game. North were actually okay, and that was my thinking. Um, and yeah, I just I I kind of don't know whether either of these teams are at. I just think the Western Bulldogs now have more to play for.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, looking at the latter, they don't actually have you know stacks more to play for. I think the Bulldogs are kind of locked into a position around there, but both I just think both teams would be trying. Um and like North, they were kind of dead going into the weekends game, they still gave a pretty good account of themselves, and so I'm just gonna judge this one as if it's a normal game without any real edge from a motivational point of view. And look, to be honest, mate, and I've been a little bit bearish on the dogs with their form, and a little bit bearish on North of their form as well over the last sort of 10 weeks. But I think that when you're getting a 17.5 start for one team and you don't actually see that there's a huge gap between the two. Um, yeah, I I definitely side with North Melbourne at the line here. Now, a couple of interesting ones, Wally, um, playing outside of that. I'm not going to play the total points. Um, just the you saw on the weekend with the Bulldogs a um they turned up over at a frio with a very negative um game plan. It turned the game into a real scrap and a super low scoring game. Um, and so that's just kind of put me off because if they bring that against Northwell, the game will go really low. If they don't, you know, then it's gonna make up somewhere around the line. So I'm just gonna stay out of that one. But play out bets wise, mate. We've there's a few here that sort of um that I'm happy to have a look at. Now, and I know we've been playing Jai Simpkin um for the last month, and he's been very good to us. He's beaten his line the last month. Now, I I hear that Wardlaw's coming back, so that would change my tune on a Jai Simpkin at that 23.5. Um, I'd be looking to go under that as long as Wardlord's names, because he'll probably go back out to more of an outside role. And when he was getting that outside roll, he didn't get over 23 um without having you know those center bounces um in there to help him out. So that that's probably the first area I'm looking. Um I did notice um on the weekend also that Libber he kind of went right back into his um his preferred role. So he had uh you know proper 80% plus time on ground, 60% um center bounce attendances, and he got the 28 disposals, and his line's 23.5. So I'll be looking for Libba to to go back to sort of somewhere around his best. The other thing that we noticed on the weekend, Wally, and it it worked out quite well for us, was that we said, you know, North are conceding the fourth lowest amount, no, sorry, the second lowest amount of disposals in the comp across the whole season. Um, and you know, we got all these Hawthorne players with quite elevated lines on the weekend, and they did keep Hawthorne a fair bit below their average, and quite a lot of their players did go under. So be a little bit careful when taking the Western Bulldogs players. Now, also, apart from that, there's a couple of maybe kind of matchups that we might be looking for. Fino Sullivan to the bond would probably make good sense, wouldn't it? Um, I would imagine he'd be the one to target there, and um, and so looking at playing him now. Also, with the doggies having a few sort of main ball users missing out of their back line, um, we've seen Bramble in the last two weeks have a big um bump in his disposals, and he's getting the bulk of the kick outs as well. He's had 27 and 23 the last two weeks, and um, his line's 21. So they that might be a guy you want to follow. And the other guy here, I've noticed it's he he had more of a bump against um against Richmond that was Bailey Williams with with 26. He went back to 19, but it was a very tough matchup um against Frio. So and he's 21.5. So I probably prefer Bramble um out of those two. So looking at some some role changes around um around North on the weekend, which I found interesting, was um Sheesel, mate. He he only had the um the 30% centre bounce attendances, and his disposals dropped all the way down to 25, which is about the lowest he's had this year without being tagged. So um not too sure if that's gonna continue or not, but you just might want to be a little bit careful around Shees. Luke Parker played as a full-time inside mid and looked pretty good in there, mate. Um, so I you know I wonder if that's gonna continue as well. Um obviously Clarko's now starting to throw some magnets around, and and that can confuse things a little bit too. Um the other guy I noticed too, he didn't go over his line, but he looked he looked to have his um roll back as a bit of a defensive ball user. He had the 36% kick-ins, which he hasn't been getting all year, and that was McKircher. He only had the 21 disposals. So, but I did notice with um with obviously uh Parker going up into the midfield, McKercher um he did have that kind of role. He he he just didn't get enough of the footy, you know, and it was a Hawthorne is a bit of a tough matchup for that sort of um role. So um so he's a guy I'm gonna be interested in as well, mate. So there's a few for the punters to um to consider, and and I've got a few leans there. Hopefully, we can turn into some winners, mate.
SPEAKER_02All right, very good. All right, uh, Hawthorne head up to Brisbane, mate. And this is an interesting one because this will be one um that I uh we have a very, very close eye on selection because what they have at the moment, Brisbane's $1.70, Hawthorne's $2.16, the line's five and a half. So Brisbane now Payne's already out, Gallup's suspended, and now Leicester's gone down. The question is will Leicester I don't know. So, like the AFL injury list isn't even, he's not even putting McCluggage, Leicester, these guys, which clearly are carrying something on that injury list. They're just saying that they'll they'll face the test. If Leicester's out, it means that Harris Andrews and Eric Hipwood will likely have to take on Charles Gunston and possibly now Mitch Lewis. So that's going to be really, really interesting. Zorco will come back in for Coleman, which is fine. That's a like for like or an upgrade because Coleman got injured again. And then there's the humid cuggage piece of he's a huge ad if he doesn't play. We know that, but also if he's playing and carrying something. So Hawthorne are just about back to full strength because Carl Amon, you think, would return and Mitch Lewis is likely to return. So this is more than just oh Brisbane up there. Oh, you know, that mate, Hippo Andrews is a freak, but Eric Hipwood is your second tall defender against that forward line. I'd be worried. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's probably not a bad idea.
SPEAKER_02You know more than I do.
SPEAKER_00It's probably not a bad idea to be um getting on maybe Hawthorne before the teams are out. Um because obviously it could um it could it could change things a fair bit um in terms of who's in and who's out. And it m like Hawthorne looks solid. Like I don't think we're gonna get any surprises on the Hawthorne side.
SPEAKER_02No, it could only that's the thing, is Brisbane Brisbane's news could only be outs, Hawthorne's news can only be ins. So it's a good shape. If you do like the Hawks, I'd be going early.
SPEAKER_00That's it, yeah. And I I kind of do like the Hawks, mate. Um, do you remember the game they played up there? It was a very similar situation, wasn't it, last year. These two teams met up on up in Brisbane, and Brisbane gave them a bit of a touch-up, I think. So Hawthorne will have that um in the back of their mind, and they'll be um they'll be wanting to front up here and give a better account of themselves. Actually, it was only 10 points. Yeah, right. Yeah, they oh that's right. I remember this now. We um we were on the lines, I think, and they won by a zero goal of 10. Um should have been a lot bigger margin. Oh 0-11, actually. No, yeah, that's funny. They've got the margin as 10 points on final siren, but they've got the score as 8.19 to 8.8. So anyway, that's weird. Oh no, sorry, that's a three-quarter time still. 11 a man.
SPEAKER_02Boying arrow. But yeah, that that was that game, then they they kicked a ridiculous amount of behind.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it was 11.23 to 11.13. So yeah, incredible. Now, obviously, the we talked about it last week um in the blues game, and it's uh I said last week it's about the strongest um trend in you know in betting and footy at the moment is the overtotal points in um in Brisbane Lions games. And we saw it again on the weekend in the blues um v Lions. And look, if the Lions aren't going to change anything off the back of getting a hammering against the Blues, which they could do, they could think, mate, well, we need we've just conceded 150 points, we need to change something. But if they don't, and you've kind of got to back these trends until they until you get a reason not to, and that's exactly what I said last week. And I think the the line here is around that 185 and a half. So I said last week that the Lions have um, it's now the 13 of their last 14 games, they're over 180. Um, and Hawthorne are a free scoring side too. So you just have to keep playing that sort of thing until it's sort of till you get a reason not to, basically. Um so like the Hawks, I think that they can um they can turn around that uh deficit they had with the Lions last year. They've they're I think the Hawks are better now than what they were last year. Agree with that, Wally? Yeah, uh 100% we are. Yeah, and the Lions, I don't think the Lions are going better, especially with their outs they've got. Then you look at some player stuff. Now, I saw Dunkley did a fantastic job on Cripper on the weekend, kept Cripper very quiet. And um, there's just a pretty obvious matchup for him, I think, in the Hawthorne side, and that's John Newcomb. Um, and if you have a look back over the last sort of three games he's played against the Lions, Newcomb he's been under this line on all three occasions. In fact, each time he's had exactly 23 disposals and the lions 25.5. So you could definitely um look to play the the Newcomb unders uh on this occasion, mate. I'd be you know pretty happy with that. The um the other guy that goes sort of that should go alright here, and if Hawthorne give up disposals anywhere, it's the inside mids. And um, and so Locking Neal, I think,'s looking to have like like I think he's got a good um a good matchup here, and his line's not so high at um yeah, 27.5, which is a bit down for him. Um, so he's another guy I'd be happy to have a look at um in this one. Wally outside of that, I think um we've sort of come up with enough for this game.
SPEAKER_02All right, very good. Well, uh looking forward to that one. Be a good game. That's a cracking game for neutrals. That's what you want as a neutral supporter on a Friday night. Two teams vying for top four, um back to back reigning premiers against the team that's like youth and coming up. This is that is what Friday night footy is meant to be at this time of year, Harrow. So I'm wrapping neutrals. And and and another game on the side. Sorry?
SPEAKER_00We've got the number two in the comp scoring side, playing the number three in the comp scoring side. So like it should be plenty of scoring, which which equals entertaining footy.
SPEAKER_02Order a couple of pizzas, open a bottle of red, have a couple of beers in the fridge, and just enjoy your Friday night. Watch the presses, mate. I'll tell you what, mate, that that is if if you if you can't enjoy yourself on Friday night, you don't like footy or fun or anything. Um Saturday gets us off to a good start, too. MCG, Melbourne Frio. Now, this is this is uh a really interesting game, this one. Melbourne Frio, Melbourne 274, a day game at the G is about as big as they've been since early in the season. Frio's $1.46, the Lions 13 and a half. Mate, this this is this is great stuff because the D's have been, these are two of the more fun, exciting teams to watch. Um, Freo obviously have to be exciting to watch because they're so bloody good. But Melbourne has been incredible this year.
SPEAKER_00This is a great game. It is a good one, and I think you know, Freeman will probably look at this and go, um, this is like a dress rehearsal, maybe for what might be coming later in terms of they don't get that many opportunities to play on the MCG. So I kind of expect Freo to be taking this one seriously, and but you've I just I just can't back a team that's um that's three games clear with three games to go, you know. Yeah, it's just tricky from a motivational point of view. But I wanted to go through like why are Frio so good, and um, I'm looking at their their defensive sort of profile, and they they're so they concede the least um disposals in the AFL, which obviously means they concede the least uncontested possessions. They also concede the least meters gained as well, they concede the least intercepts, they concede the least clearances, they concede the least inside 50s, no matter where you look, they concede the least points, um, they concede like just everywhere you look, mate. It's just red. It's a red screen. Um, and it does make for tricky betting opportunities, actually, when you're looking for like disposal bets and stuff like that. But that just gives you a bit of an idea like of where Frio are going really well. And then you look at the flip side, not only are they conceding the least points in the AFL, but they're actually scoring the fourth most. Um, and you think about how inaccurate they've been this season as well. Like that could easily be um, you know, higher, I reckon, as well. So they're just crushing it, Frio, and um, and then they've been, yeah, really good to watch. So, how does it how does this one work out? I reckon this is a really tricky betting game because um obviously the D's are highly motivated. Um, Frio's motivation could be questioned a bit, but you think they're coming to the G as a dress rehearsal, they'd probably go flat stick. But um, and also the D's form I reckon's tailed off a little bit. Like they should have lost to the Gold Coast, you know, unexpected scoring on the weekend. They're missing DJ Turner so badly because you look at what has happened to the D's since he's gone out of the side, and um the amount of points that they've conceded compared to before, like okay, so they conceded 117 against Geelong and 105 against the Gold Coast, and and then with DJ Turner in the side, they're only conceding like 76, 65, 90 against Hawthorne, who are really high scoring team, and like 79 against Adelaide. So the last month before DJ Turner went out of the side, it was all like conceding low, and then he goes out. It's amazing what difference it's made because they've given up 117 and 105. So um, yeah, love to see him back in. But otherwise, mate, we're we're looking at this one as a pretty tricky betting event, from my opinion. Um, I will I'll just give you a couple of players that we could um we could sort of watch out for um in this one, and so it's actually um very, very tough. Um there's wingers against the D's tend to do pretty well. Um and so, like your your Johnson, Matthew Johnson could be a good one. He's gone back out onto a wing now, and um, and so he and his lines dropped a fair bit, so he could be one to to watch out for. Then you've got um key defenders, is a funny one um against Melbourne. Um, so they actually give up high numbers to key defenders and those um defender ball users as well. So you could look at those guys for Freo. The other thing that they do really well, Melbourne, is they guard um those high half forwards really well. And we saw that with Petraca the week before it was Myers. And Wally, who's the obvious guy for Freo? If they're gonna be like guarding a Petra and a Myers, there's a guy there for Freo that just stands out that you'd go after, isn't there? Can you pick it up?
SPEAKER_02Petraka and Myers.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so Thalstrip's done a job on those two the last two weeks, and uh, I think it's uh Murphy Reed. Murphy Reed for Freo. So I'm looking for Murphy Reed to get um get the attention from Thalstrip this week. And if we can get a line for him around like that 22, 20. It's uh yeah, okay. At the moment it's 22.5. Um, and he's going at about 50-50 at that line um throughout the season anyway. And I'm pretty sure Thalstrip will go there. So that's um there's an unders play for the Punters as well.
SPEAKER_02Nice, mate. All right, great, just getting all that down. So we're saying uh Johnson over, Melbourne key defenders possibly over. If you have a look there, and you get if you can get with those, that they're the ones that you can get. Like they help with your SGMs, you can get them at a 10 or a 15, and then Reed is an under. Well, that's just a game that could be a belting game, Harrow. That just could be a cracker. I can't wait for that to kick off the Saturday. Um, we move on now. We've got that's where the great games on Saturday stop. I'll just tell you now, Harrow. I'm sorry. Um Sydney, Port Adelaide at the SCG, Sydney's $1.13, Port's $6.05, the line's 37 and a half. I think Port, they've been, I've actually been really impressed what they've been able to do this year with the injuries and the list and a new coach and all of that. And they've been so close in so many games, and halfway through the season, they were like top four on expected scoring, and all of those things that kind of don't matter when the end of the season like comes to rest. But I think now they're finally just like done, and the last three weeks could be a long three weeks for them. Um, yeah, and Sydney, all Sydney need to do is just they can't get overtaken. They just got three games. They doesn't matter what happens, they just need to win all three. They win all three, they get a home final, and happy as Larry, and the whole season has done everything it needs to set up for a big finals campaign. So you you can't there'd be no surprises there. But is there is there an angle in that in that line at all, Harrow?
SPEAKER_00Um well, I watched obviously the port team pretty closely on the weekend. I I was pretty uh disappointed actually with the way they played. I didn't yeah, they just didn't play well at all. And so I reckon you're on to something there with them. Um and you see this with bottom teams tailing away as the season goes on, you know, especially now in an away game. Um, I feel like, yeah, the Swannies uh yeah, I feel like the minimum they could win by would be around this line, but they've got the ability to put on a score too, don't they? So um I definitely favour the Swannies at the line. Now, a few things I like here. Heaney has been really closely guarded the last two weeks against the Giants. He had Angwin and against the Saints. They ran a couple of different players around with him, but kept him quiet. And his line's now down to 27.5 at home against a team that I don't think they've got the right type of player. Or, you know, also they're probably just focusing on their own game a fair bit at the moment. Um Port. I think that Heaney Over's looking good. Now, I also feel like there's a very obvious um player for James Jordan to lock on to this week, and it's um Jason Horn Francis. And so um, you know, if we're hopefully getting a line for him around that 23-24, which is um, you know, likely, then I'll be pretty pretty keen to get under his um line as well. Then you get Errol Gouldon, mate, and um he's just he's like he's back been back for a month now, and he seems like he's um right back into full form. And um, he's also now doing some some kind of pig-ish sort of things like running down and taking kick outs and like um you know, giving the ball to a guy who he knows he's gonna get it back off. Stuff I don't love. Um, and I'll call it out whether it's Nas or Dacos or Gordon, but it does make for a good um kind of betting opportunity, doesn't it? So um he's he him to get 30, mate. He's um, you know, he's $2 to get 30. He's coming off 30, 22, 41, and 34. And um I think now uh Port are no longer like a really stingy um outfit. They're giving up you know enough possessions um at that at the moment. So they're they're my leans in this game from a disposal point of view. Otherwise, I I do like, you know, as with yourself, I do feel like Port are tailing off, and they do have plenty of players out, too. So um I'm kind of keen for Sydney to get on top here, and um, and there could be you know a bit of a margin in this one. All right, very good.
SPEAKER_02Next game, mate. Uh we have Geelong Essendon. This is this is about as big as you will get in terms of a price. Geelong's a $1.01. Esnon's $19. You don't see many with a two in front of them, so that's about as big as you get. The line's $64.5. I mean, I yeah, like percentage, percentage helps Geelong too. Because they're right on, they're they've got an E they're even. So I was having a look at this Harrow just to be to be clear on this. In terms of their percentage, Geelong are on 117, Brisbane's on 114, so and Adelaide's on 117. So if Geelong, if Adelaide drop a game, like Geelong's obviously going to want to have a higher percentage, and then the the the Brisbane factor. So they're competing with two other teams for that top four spot who have a similar percentage. So what does that usually mean?
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Yeah. Well, I would never normally tip up these, you know, 10 goal lines, but I feel like this is a bit of a unique opportunity in terms of exactly what you pointed out, Wally. And the um Geelong, they'll definitely be looking to try and chase percentage here. And so um, even if you know Essendon are really competitive and the margins like, you know, say 30 points at three-quarter time, the um your line is still in play because you feel like Geelong are going to push all the way to the finish line and and try and eke out every um little bit of percentage they can. So um it's in their interest to play that way, and and so from a motivational point of view, um, that's kind of where you want to be. And then you just look at it from a form point of view. I've really been impressed with Geelong's form, um, especially with a couple of players out. You know, they've kind of been able to maintain. I thought, I thought the margin kind of flattered Collingwood um last week, that um the free kick count was so lopsided um that I felt like the Cats had you know a high ascendancy in that game, anyway. Um before that, also the Cats had a pretty strong performance. I think it was against the D's. Then you look at it, they're actually at home with a big home ground advantage as well. Um, and then Essendon, just let me bring up their form. So obviously they had the was it a 68 point, 63 point, something like that loss on the weekend. Sorry, 72-point loss to Adelaide. Um, and Adelaide are not going as well as Geelong, in my opinion, and they don't have the big home ground advantage. And the game before that, a 93-point loss to the Hawks, who were potentially around about Geelong's level. Two weeks before that, a 90-point loss to uh the Brisbane Lions, and a week before that, a 67-point loss to the Saints. So you're looking at four of the last five games that Essendon have played, they've been all over where, you know, the margin's been over where the line is here. Geelong with everything to play for down at home, it should just look like a little bit more like that Hawthorne game or that Brisbane Lions game, or even last week against the Crows. So that's where I want to be in this one. I think it's not a bad bet. Wouldn't normally tip up these 65-point lines, but you need motivation, you need motivation guaranteed when you're tipping up these sorts of lines, and I feel like we're going to get it there. So it um it kind of when you get these types of games, you get it could be a bit of a disposal festival for the cats. Um, so nobody's really off limits there in terms of like who you could back. I know wingers go really well against Essendon. Ollie Dempsey's in great form coming off 29. His line's 21.5. He's beaten that in four of his last five games, um, regardless, not even considering the opposition. Um, so he's definitely a guy I'd be happy to back. Um, there's a bombers player here. If you're you know you're a bombers fan, you want to have a bet on one of your guys. I've been so impressed with this guy, Dyson Sharp. He's um he played like he's playing about a 50% midfield role, so he's around the footy. He goes and gets dirty um and he finds the footy. He's got 23, 21, and 22. You know, so it doesn't matter if his team's getting smashed, he's still getting a bit of the footy. His line's um 18.5. Um, looking outside of that, yeah. So obviously goal kickers for Geelong, they're gonna be they're gonna kick plenty, but it's obviously the tricky part's finding the value as well. Um, because yeah, like it's just their prices are uh are pretty tricky to get around. So um we can look more into that one.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, go on the goal kickers. Um Ollie Dempsey's like having like one of the great years for a winger. I think I think the the most goals in a season for a winger, I think he's two of the four most um goals we've seen, and and he's he's he's like going really well. He's kicked a heap. He's gone two, three, two, zero two. And we think if they go well against Destin, he's two bucks for two, he's four dollars forty for three. So that might be a starting point. Um the two, the two, he's done it four or five weeks, and he's getting a great matchup against Destin in the game they think they're gonna pile on for even money. That feels like a good one for me for Dempsey. The other one for me that I'll be playing in is it's I just feel like the sort of game that Sean Manor could tear apart.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Does that he just he's just mate? I just love Sean Manor, let's be honest.
SPEAKER_00But the thing is that there's a guy there that we backed last week as well, Jay Pulkinghorn. Um, and I knocked his kicking, actually. I said, I said when I tipped him up last week, I said he he might need five shots on goal to get two, but he kicked three straight.
SPEAKER_02So yeah, um nice one from the boundary too, Harrow. Um see now he's now he's even money for three, so he's been found now. So I don't know about you. I'd rather go Dempsey, he's done it four of the last five weeks, a good matchup against Essen. I'm getting the same price for him to kick two as I am for Polkingon to kick three. I think that Shannon Neal could also have a day out, yeah. Well, yeah, no, mate. He's he is two dollars forty four. So his price is completely gone. Anyway, a lot of angles there. Should be a good night down there for cat supporters. Wally go to Chin Chin for a meal in the Joel Salwood stand and then go and watch your team win by a hundred.
SPEAKER_00Actually, you mentioned Manor, and he's actually two dollars ten to kick two. So um, yeah, he he's definitely capable of kicking a bag as well. If you think he can kick four, which he's done three times this year already, is 12 bucks. So yeah, I think you might manor might be the guy there with um that's that's actually not bad value as well.
SPEAKER_02All right, love it. All right, we'll continue um with the Saturday games, and Saturday night doesn't get any better in terms of matchups. Adelaide at $1.02, hosting Richmond at 17 bucks. The line's 55 and a half. Adelaide had to tune up after the loss against Destin and bounce back. They need percentage, they're at home, and they're playing Richmond, who's just had their win, and like this is just and this is gonna be carnage again. I think this matches up in a similar fashion. 55 and a half line. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. It actually does, and you could do a bit of a double um with the two smashings. Just basically there's a bit of a correlation there, isn't there? With um these two teams were both fighting one another, basically, for percentage, and they both played one after another. You can imagine the crow sitting there watching um the cats win by a hundred or something like that, going, shit, we're gonna we've got to pull something out similar here.
SPEAKER_02So um, I'm just gonna stop you there. You know how players often talk about in coaches, oh, we just got our own eyes. Giant Newcomb let it slip. He goes, Yeah, we saw that we saw that um St Kilda were up on Sydney and we knew like coming in, like, you know, this was a real opportunity. We had to make sure this is our great opportunity. Unfortunately, they didn't get the job done. They were checking at half time, mate.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02So these players are across it. They can pretend in the media that they're not looking at all the other games and what it means for them in their latter position, but I saw that that he let that slip in an interview. I'm like, you guys were checking during a game, not before, you're checking half time. So you're 100% right. They will know exactly what Geelong have done when they go onto the field and how they need to what they need to do to stay ahead.
SPEAKER_00Do they still put the um the other game scores up on the scoreboard at the games, Wally? I don't think so.
SPEAKER_02The old A, B, C, D, E, F. That was the best. And then just by the way, in great business by the AFL that you just go, we're not gonna put the names of the team, we're just gonna put a nut a letter because there's like five games going on at once on a Saturday. You have to buy the record to work out which team is which letter. It was it was actually ahead of its time, it was brilliant. Um, no, but Adelaide are gonna know, mate. The play they know the the coaches, the players, the teams, they all know. Yeah, so they're gonna they're gonna go into this. Geelong's probably gonna smash S and then go, all right. Well, guys, we need percentage.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. So I I like that. Yeah, and you could do a little, I know it's gonna be like a little double of like both teams to win by 90 or something like that. I think there's some play around that, yeah. It'll be a long odds. So you know, it's uh something for a small stake, but I could definitely see it happening. Now, the um there's an interesting one here. Obviously, um we saw and we were on him actually. The boy from um West Coast, the new guy, he had like 34 disposals playing as a half back. Um, I don't know why, his name's just slipped me, but um I'll look it up just so we can we can be spot on with this Wally. But um and the thing what I'm finding here is the defensive ball users for Adelaide, they're actually missing is like Miller and um and what's his name, Lead. So I think there's a bit of an opportunity. The guy I'm talking about is Herbert, who had 94. Yeah, and uh and we actually tipped him up at about six bucks, didn't we, to have 30. So that was that was probably our best play bit we had for the weekend. But um, so who's that gonna be for Adelaide this week? Um look, obviously Warrell, um, he's down there. He didn't have a great game on the weekend. Um, and obviously he's gone missing a bit in the back half of the season, Harrow.
SPEAKER_02And I know we backed, he's gone missing a little bit in the back half of the season in games, so he might he gets a bit of it, and then there's a drop-off. Well, yeah. Yeah, I don't have a huge amount of confidence in him.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and they haven't like been moving the ball through him directly either. But just looking at the kick outs, um, they're really kind of sharing them around. Um, cane actually had the bulk of them on the weekend, so you could look at a cane, his disposals as well, um, because he's getting the kick-ins. Um, let's have a look at him now while we're we're just on this. Um, the other guys uh Hugo Hall can. Um but his lines he needs 22 and he hasn't got there these last five weeks. So this needs a bit of work, but uh there will be a defensive ball user or whatnot for Adelaide who who should go really well here against Richmond, who give up, as we saw against West Coast, they give up to tons to that position. So um we're just gonna obviously have to wait for teams and figure out who it is. I I know we um we back coming um against Essendon at 16.5, and he got the job done with the bear 17. So maybe he could be one that um you know could go all right here as well. But I think we need to wait for teams. We'll pick out a guy there. But obviously, um the main bet we're looking at is very similar to the Geelong game. It's um it's Adelaide to just put a margin and build some percentage.
SPEAKER_02Yep, love that. All right, we're gonna head to Sunday. We've got GWS Gold Coast, and the bookies have finally aligned with what's going on with Gold Coast. So Gold Coast against Western Bulldogs, Carlton, and Melbourne haven't been bigger than $2.20. Now they're getting a team which is probably not going as well as any of them in GWS, and GWS is $1.35 and Gold Coast is $3.25. So they're finally being caught. So now if you want to keep backing them, you're finally getting a price. Uh and the lines $18.5. Um, yeah, what do we think?
SPEAKER_00Uh this is oh, is it must be raining this one, Wally? Because the lines at 166 points.
SPEAKER_02You get started, I'll get the weather for us, Harrow.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, um, because I my my first thought when I came to this game was actually the overtotal points. Because um both teams, like especially Gold Coast, they leak like nothing. Um, you know, leak score. So just to sort of back that up, I can tell you what they've conceded Gold Coast in the last sort of month. 114 to Melbourne, 110 to Carlton. Forget the Bulldogs game, it was 77, then 128 to the Crows, 104 to Collingwood. So, but Wally, if you could fill us in on that weather, that would give us a bit of a better guide in terms of why this line is so low.
SPEAKER_02It's funny you mention that because I'm just I'm just checking. Um this is in Canberra, isn't it?
SPEAKER_00Uh yeah, it is.
SPEAKER_02Sydney Sydney Sydney's fine, mate. So I'm just going to Canberra.
SPEAKER_00So Sydney's like Canberra's got a bit of rain, definitely.
SPEAKER_02Is that what it is? Right.
SPEAKER_00But yeah. So keep an eye on it.
SPEAKER_02Okay, so Saturday, it's minus two there overnight. Okay, so yeah, mate, a bit of rain. It's saying 90% 10 to 20 mil.
SPEAKER_01All right. All right.
SPEAKER_02All right. Even even with the bomb and their two percent hit rate, they still might be on to it here. So that is that is a lot of rain, Harrow.
SPEAKER_00It is, yeah. So look, and as I say, with these games, like throw the form out the window. Because it's just it's a completely different game. It's and actually, I feel like the Gold Coast are probably more acclimatised to these types of conditions because they play in those slippery type games um up there a bit. And I was actually they actually played well on the weekend against the D's. Um, so you'd have to be brave to be backing a side that's um just performed the way they have over the last two months. But with the 18.5 start in like most likely horrible conditions, um yeah, that's probably where you'd have to be. Now, outside of that, who are the types of players that we know go well in the wet? Um, I reckon you could you could reel off a couple here, Wally, without me having to prompt you.
SPEAKER_02But we've got a favourite we know I mean Matty Matty Rao, we know is built for it. No, Noah Anderson is the one, though, that like he has actually had all that wet weather form. We know he's been great. I think that from a GWS perspective, Kate Nogava's built for it. Like, yeah, you just yeah, but Anderson, no, Noah Anderson's the one.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, Anderson is the guy with back before in the wet, uh, has has killed it. So that could be uh that one. But they you know, I oh yeah, you know what else, Wally? I I could be spoiling something for us here, but we get these types of games and we get those tackle markets.
SPEAKER_01Yes, the tackle markets, yeah.
SPEAKER_00So I I hope I'm not spoiling it for it for us by pointing it out, but um actually no tackles will go low in this one, Wally.
SPEAKER_02But uh tackle markets, yeah, yeah, very low. No, no, uh yeah, definitely tackle markets are a good one. That's if you can get on those um pick'ems, like there, that's that's where you can find that space. Yeah. I reckon I reckon you can go under on marks too, just quietly.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, probably. I mean, a lot of that's going to be pulled, but uh, as we found with the Lloyd Meek bet, uh going back a month or so, that you can still pick out um still pick out some some tidy bets, um, even with everybody knowing the weather's coming. So that that'll be the sort of angles we'll be looking at.
SPEAKER_02Nice, mate. All right, uh then on uh on Sunday we continue with West Coast Collingwood. West Coast $3.09. Collingwood's $1.38. The line's $17.5. I reckon if this was on the G, the line would be double that. But yeah, West Coast look they're back at home, which they enjoy. I don't know. I they it wasn't it wasn't great footy on Sunday. They just kicked shockingly. I mean, their sort of season fate is sealed. I don't whereas Collingwood still have something to play for. I mean, in terms of that, so Collingwood, so Collingwood's do you know what the interesting thing you said earlier like they probably don't have a lot to play for, these like some of these teams in the in that are in that um wildcard race, because they're all Melbourne teams as well. So the bottom line is that they're probably going to play in Melbourne. The only thing is, there is a there is there is still hope for a Collingwood. They're a game no, probably not. They're a game and a half out of the six. They're probably not making it, are they? No. But you do let's go over there, let's get the Chalkies come home.
SPEAKER_00Just just quickly, um, they finished with Hawthorne and Brisbane, Collingwood do.
SPEAKER_02Okay, so they yeah.
SPEAKER_00So if they dropped this game, they could just put themselves under a little bit of pressure with um like they Carlton would have to make win two games to overtake him, and St Kilda would have to win three. So it's still very unlikely they could miss the 10.
SPEAKER_02Could possible because Carlton could lose to the Saints when their other two, and St Kilda could win all three.
SPEAKER_00That's right.
unknownThat's right.
SPEAKER_00Okay. So it's kind of Collingwood would want to put it to bed, wouldn't you? You wouldn't want to have to be relying on St Kilda losing the last game and having to beat Brisbane or something like that to make finals. Um, but um there's there's also like West Coast's home form is um is pretty good when you look at it. Um, it is a bit of a danger game, I reckon, Wally. I mean, I'm I think Collingwood will get the job done, but it is just a little bit of a danger game in terms of West Coast at home, nothing to lose. Um, and Collingwood have some kind of important players missing um in this one as well. So just uh, you know, uh but uh as you say that, like it, you know, it's not huge odds, like we're not talking about Collingwood, you know, getting giving a 40-point start or anything like that. Um only a 17.5 start. So I'm kind of um I I would love to be getting like $5 or something about West Coast because it could happen, but uh fair play to the bookies, they've kind of priced this one okay. Then um, in terms of so we'll be looking for some player bets and um who like West Coast, they're they're quite restrictive, and and obviously they use um that little fella up front to try and guard some of those defensive uh ball users. So, you know, like a Josh Dakos here, um, he might he might have a bit of a low one. And if you look at what happened last time they played the Eagles, he only had the 18 disposals. So that kind of tips you over the edge in terms of which way that might go in terms of the matchup. Um, and then looking at like this we've probably got to go back to the well and back this Herbert again because defensive ball users against the Pies is a good area to be, and he's coming off 36 and 34, and his line's 26.5. He looks like he's just getting a full run at it now. So he's a guy um that I'd be pretty happy to support. And then looking outside of him, yeah. Harley Ray's just a guy I was so impressed with in the weekend, and um obviously they do probably have actually now I think of it, yeah, they've got the tag, don't they? Collingwood, that's definitely where that's gonna go. So maybe he's one to avoid this week, um, even though he's in great form with Ed Allen, actually. Ed Allen's probably a great matchup for him, too. So um, yeah, you could either play, probably you could probably play Reed under 23.5 because he's been under 24 more often this season than what he's been over. And actually, when he played the pies last time, he had just the bare 20. So I think there's a couple of nice unders bets there for us um and a and a nice overs bet. I wish we were getting a bigger price on West Coast because it it wouldn't shock me if they at least beat the line. But um, with Collingwood having a few important outs, West Coast back at home, you kind of just never know. So, yeah, it'd be funny though, wouldn't I?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, all right. Last game of the round is St Kilda Carlton, and then sort of like your your wildcard, wildcard game. This is the game to sort of put you in the box seat to be able to get your wildcard spot. I'll tell you what, mate, this is St Kilda's 218. Baggers are the favourites at $1.69, the line six and a half. St Kilda, there's a there's a lot of injury. The the the selection of this one's going to be really interesting where it all lands. But we saw after the weekend St Kilda's got some some real injury problems. Um and the baggers are going as well as they have gone in a very, very long time. So it'll be it'll be interesting to see how this how this unfolds, mate.
SPEAKER_00So who are who are they actually going to be missing this week? Let's figure that out first because I I've been looking and I haven't been able to find any.
SPEAKER_02Um okay, so we know that like Flanders and King are out. Um Jack Sylvani's out, Jack Sinclair's out for season. Cooper Shaman is the other one that's that's facing a test this week. Then the only thing is, wasn't there a little bit around TDK?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he was sore as well, wasn't he?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so the the way I was looking is that if you've got if you've got Silvani's gone, he will be out, even though didn't he? What happened? He went back in. Yeah. So he's he's gonna be, I know it's the shoulder. So Silvani's gonna miss. Cooper Shaman is a test, and then there's the TDK chart. So I just want to see what happens there. You don't know. I think that with so much on the line, they'll TDK will play if he's any chance. Um, the others they're sort of going around without, whereas, whereas the baggers are looking fantastic, mate.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, this game, Wally. Um, I think they played each other back already in round, what was it? Probably round eight, I think it was. And this was Carlton's worst performance for the season. And um, you see it a little bit, and I pointed it out. Uh, there was a game going back a few a few weeks ago, and I pointed out like they it's a sort of game you would put up on your whiteboard, say, we've got this game in a month's time, and we're gonna make good on the performance we had last time. And actually, Carlton started underdogs in this, so there's been a big move for um for the blues uh because it's gone from Carlton plus five and a half to Carlton minus six and a half. Um, and I just feel like the Carlton have and Fages kind of pointed it out that like the if you just look at their since Fraser took over, their form is like it's quite strong. Um, and where the Saints have run into a couple of little issues now, and so I think that Carlton are likely to flip the script on the last time they played. They're playing with great confidence. Um and yeah, so I'm I'm happy to tip up the blues, mate, minus six and a half. I think that they'll get it done. I hope that I'm not wearing my blues hat when I'm talking about that. I'm just kind of trying to look at the form and uh and put it all together. And I feel like the blues are definitely like they've got better availability, they're playing better footy. Um, both teams fully should be fully wound up for it, and um should be obviously. I think whether Brisbane Hawks' game of the round or blues um Saints game of the round, it's gonna be an absolute beauty, mate. So really looking forward to it. Now, Carlton, both sides have become like really high disposal um since like maybe the last six or so weeks. So, but Carlton are quite restrictive, so it's gonna be interesting to work out how how that all goes. Um and geez, just looking at it like since they're like the midfielders for Carlton have been going really well, but like that's the area of the ground that St. Kilda really try and restrict. So it's who can get who's gonna get the footy outside of there. Now, one guy I was really impressed with on the weekend, and he he played as a bit of a defensive ball user, and that's a really good spot to be playing against the Saints, and it's Adam Cherra. Um, he had the 21 against um against the Lions in this kind of new role, which he's got with uh Newman being out. Um, I thought he looked great. And his line's 20.5 here against a team that it should actually line up pretty well for him. There's another guy here who we've been backing really successfully, it's Max Hall. Um he got he beat his line again on the weekend. He had 23 against the Swannies, and um he hasn't been below 19 since he made this midfield move, and you're getting a line just two above that, 21.5. He's beaten that line uh in nine of his last 13 games, and there was one in there that he went under. He actually got a bit of an injury in the run of the game. So that one could look even better. Oli Florent had 30 against the Saints last time they played. He's lines 21.5, and he's gone 24, 25, and 26 the last three weeks. Um, another one of these guys who I think if we're going to be avoiding the Carl midfielders a little bit, it's these other guys who are probably gonna be the ones who benefit. So I feel like there's a few nice disposable bets there for us, Wally, in this one. And um, otherwise, yeah, I'll be cheering on the bluebagers, mate, no, in what should be an absolute belter.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's an absolute great that that is perfect because you've got Cher Hall foreign all over. So, what you can do is you can have two there, you can have an S, excuse me, Harrow, you can have your SGM with all of them to have 20, and then you can have your SGM for all to cover the line at the bigger price. Doesn't get easier than that. You don't have to think about it. All you need to do on Sunday night is put on your SGM and watch what should be a great game of footy. I can't wait for that. I'm I'm really excited about it. Harrow can't be a cracker.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I got another, actually, just looking at this now. If um Carlton have been doing a really good job of defending these um inner set markers, I think they use um McGovern to as a bit of a defensive forward, and and um like I've seen them shut down Alira Alear, Harris Andrews, and so Cal Wilkie, mate, his line's 22.5. He he did get 22 against the Blues last time, but I do feel like that was the Blues uh like worst performance for the season. Um, so he's another guy that you could look look for on the unders. This will be a pretty tactical game, like with Ross, especially um being involved, and even um, you know, Fraser, he's he's sort of tended to be fairly tactical with the way he does stuff. So um, but otherwise, mate, yeah, really looking forward to this one, and um, I think we've got enough on the on the slate there.
SPEAKER_02I think yeah, you're almost being modest saying the blues form's been alright since Fraser took over. They're nine and two. Yeah, they beat Geelong and and then they beat Brisbane by 12 goals. The only two teams they've lost to are a top four side in Hawthorne and Collingwood, who well, it's Collingwood. So, mate, you you you start beating the chest, Tarrow, pop the lid off and get excited because you're you're wildcard bound.
SPEAKER_00Well, there's a few things against it, right? So, just to explain how I think about these things, and so the Carlton performance against Brisbane, it does look like such a big outlier that it's probably not a true uh indication of their real form. And I said the exact same thing when Collingwood beat uh Adelaide in such a strong performance, it was an outlier performance in sort of in their form. Um, and so I think Carlton's performance against Brisbane, it's great, don't get me wrong, but it's so far outside of the bounds of everything else that you don't want to take it as indicative of what they're gonna do the following week. And we saw Collingwood, couldn't back it up the next week because the week before wasn't a true reflection of where they're really at. So there's that. But um, I I feel like with the Saints with a couple of bad injuries and um Carlton looking to get a bit of redemption, I'm happy to be with the Blues, mate.
SPEAKER_02Very good. All right, Harry, before we go, mate, your best bet of the round.
SPEAKER_00Well, I'm gonna double down on what I just said, and I feel like in such a big game, um, I feel like not only is it a bit of fun, but also I really do like the blues. So I'm gonna have the blues minus six and a half against the Saints as the bet of the round.
unknownFuck.
SPEAKER_02I thought we were heading to Adelaide or Geelong. I thought we were going to Adelaide overall or down at Cadinia Park, but we're going with the blues. I love it. I love it. I love it. This is great. All right, Harrow, have a great weekend. Good luck to your baggers. Hope everyone enjoys the footy. We've only got three rounds of footy left until we get into the uh the real business end stuff. So enjoy enjoy the last few weeks for some and the uh the ramp up for others. And we'll see you next week. What's gambling really costing you? For free and confidential support, call the number on the screen or visit the website.