Footy Form Guide Podcast

Season 2026 Round 23 Preview

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The AFL home-and-away season is almost over, and with just two rounds remaining, the race for the finals is heating up. Round 23 could be crucial in solidifying the top four, while the battle for the remaining finals spots continues to go down to the wire.

Harro and Walley preview every AFL Round 23 clash, breaking down the biggest storylines, key matchups and games that could shape the final ladder. Plus, we look at which teams are best placed heading into September and who could make a late push for the finals.

If you're looking for AFL Round 23 tips, predictions, best bets, betting insights and expert analysis, Footy Form Guide has everything you need ahead of the weekend.

SPEAKER_00

G'day punches. Welcome to another episode of the Footy Form Guide Podcast. Looking a little differently today. Harrow's coming to us from Caster to Harris down on the pen, mate. This is what happens in winter. Harrow, sometimes the family gets sick, and you just got to get hands on the deck and uh look after them. And uh mate, you're coming to us from the homestead as opposed from the uh the studio today. So just a little peek behind the curtain. How are you?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, mate. I don't know. Um for those of you with families out there, like, does it get any tougher? I've had for the last sort of week the three kids and the wife, all with influenza A. It's been an absolute nightmare. And yet, um somehow, and what happens with us blokes? We've just got some sort of superpower, we don't get sick, because um, yeah, I've just I'm cherry ripe, so uh it's it's sort of yeah, it's interesting, but I couldn't drag my little fallard Harvey down to the office today. He's got to stay in bed, so I'm coming from home, and um yeah, it is what it is, isn't it? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Harrow, as I've learned in my house, if I'm sick, no one there cares, so it's better off not even claiming to be sick at any point. You just gotta get on with it. But uh, mate, look, uh, we'll get stuck straight in um to the show as we like to do. We'll start where we always start with the good and bad of the weekend going by. We've only got a couple more weeks of this before finals. The season is absolutely phone. Um, but what were our highlights on the punt from the weekend, mate?

SPEAKER_01

Well, mate, I I sort of stuck my neck out and I made the blue bag as the best bet. And I've I've put the blue bag as beanie on this week because they got the job done for it. So the lid is off. But uh I do put myself under a little bit of pressure when I make the blues the best bet. I don't do it often because uh we we do get a little bit of feedback, don't we, if uh if things go wrong. Yeah. So but um no, that was excellent. They uh they got the job done, the bag is and um okay, it helped our bet a little bit, but I don't think Naz going down probably influenced the overall result. Um but that was a bit to say. I would rather have seen Carlton beat the Saints with Naz playing a full game. Anyway, it is what it is, we'll take it. I do remember we did back Carlton the other week, and um Harry Mackay went down very early. So sometimes it goes one way or the other. Other results that I uh enjoyed was the Cats. They were essentially our second best bet last week, weren't they? And um, and they they got the job done with the last kick of the day. Special mention to my boy, Tanner Brun.

SPEAKER_00

He has been he you've been all over like this year, it's there's been good, bad, indifferent, but I feel like whether we're on him or not, he's been mentioned in just about every pod. So um, but he got yeah, he got the job done. That was uh that was a nice watch from the uh the catters to do that for us. That was good.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and so I I've honestly I've been pretty critical of Tadabroom this season, and um he snuck that one in by about one millimeter. I was waiting for him to go to the arc and overturn it. It was so tight, but uh that was that was good. Um North over the dogs, mate, was another one I really enjoyed. Um felt pretty vindicated with the uh read on that one. Couple of lowlights. Um didn't actually get to watch it. Uh the only game I didn't watch for the round was the Hawks, the the uh the Lions, but we it was never a bet we were gonna have a big go at, but um the Hawks we we did tip them up um to beat the Lions, and they couldn't they couldn't get anywhere near them. Um and then the Crows only beating the Tigers by two points at home with everything but play for that was another one we've got one as well, mate.

SPEAKER_00

Yep. All right, mate. Well, we'll get we'll get stuck in. I've uh we've got some questions from punis. We've got a few there that we'll cover. Before we do that, I'm bringing the selection table out this week, and we've just got a couple in terms of uh in and out. Look, in for me is just the fact that the wildcard weekend now, don't get me wrong, if we didn't have the wild card, the battle for the eight would actually be more exciting. So the wild card's kind of a bit irrelevant in terms of who's going to be in there. Bud Harrow, there is a chance that 100,000 people are going to be at the MCG to watch Carlton v. Collingwood on a round that is usually a bye. Because there is every chance now with the two games they've got each remaining that they are going to finish eighth and ninth and play in the wildcard, which anybody that likes footy, it's just the best scenario for this wildcard weekend. I can't think of it. Maybe if there was a showdown somehow or something like that, but we are talking about just about the best scenario. Collingwood, that really they just don't put in bad performances. They're always there. They always show up versus Carlton, who have got the equal best record since Fraser has taken over in the comp. They've been 10 and 2. It sets up beautifully. Hopefully, you both finish off the season somewhat nicely. I don't want Collingwood to finish off too nicely because we got them this week. But that would be incredible. Friday night wildcard weekend. I can't wait for that. So that's a massive tick for me, Harrow. And let me, as a Blues fan, forgetting anything else, like that has to be super exciting.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and also, you know, you've got to put your conspiracy theory hat on for a second and go. The AFL are gonna do everything in their power to try and make it happen, aren't they? Yeah. They've got so much to gain out of uh it basically makes their whole decision to have the wildcard round um kind of vindicated if they get Carlton Collingwood, plus they probably keep the revenue from finals that are at the G, I'm guessing. I don't know exactly what I'm gonna do.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Clubs don't own them the AFL though, so yeah, that's that's that's a win.

SPEAKER_01

They're they've just got so much to gain out of getting a Carlton um Collingwood final. And I think for it to happen, Carlton probably has to beat the Doggers this week. Um to make it realistic, I think. So anyway, we'll work that out later.

SPEAKER_00

But um yeah, if Carlton and I reckon I reckon you'll beat Frey. I can't imagine Freyos bringing a full strength side over mate to Marvel. Well just there's no benefit.

SPEAKER_01

Even if they do, we'll probably flog him.

SPEAKER_00

He's up and about. I'll I'll tell you, I'll tell you this though, in terms of um in terms of that over that round as well, there's a chance Adelaide doggies Adelaide Oval, which is another sellout. So if that that's a that's a huge fixture. We were staring down the barrel of maybe uh, you know, dogs, Collingwood, St Kilda, Melbourne. Like, you just I mean, like, yeah, like there could be decent matchups, but like you're not you're just not gonna get the crowds, it's not gonna be the same. This this is huge. Um Melbourne, Melbourne, too good for the wild card now, mate. They are absolutely fine. Um, and out for me, Harrow, is footy form guide trying to break news or get involved in news. Harrow, I enjoyed this week when you went at the cats hard. And just want to be clear, everyone probably thought I did. I'm a Hawthorne fan, but I think you've gone past me in your cat's hatred. I I I genuinely, I actually haven't given a shit about this whole story because I'm like, it's such a debacle, I don't want to get involved. I just felt bad for the for the player in the Geelong Channel. But what I laughed my ass off is someone, and I thought the same thing when I read it. A day ago, you've tweeted, and you've to make a point, you've quite you've quite tweeted John Ralph. That's when we know things are going bad, mate, if we have wrong on a Johnny Ralph tweet. So I I actually laughed my ass on that. And the the the person that called you out, I'm like, mate, I was on the same page. But look, I I I I found that quite funny. In what has been the whole thing's been a bit shit and a shit story, and it's just been it's been a debacle. So it was it's come full circle on the end of it before here. I I was actually able to have a uh a chuckle at part of it. I just hope something can work out and uh Jake Cole Jackson can actually pay footy again and they can work through all of this. That's the only thing that really matters, and pay footy fully insured with the full support of the AFL and the AFLPA. That's all I give a shit about. Um they'll work out the sanctions. No, and the other thing is, Harry, no, no club is every club's big enough to survive any sanction anyway. So kind of unless you like the Esnon thing was a big one, but that's a that's a different beast. But that's sort of the only example. And you look over the NRL, they script the storm of premierships and they still bound, continued, and went on with it. So like clubs are big enough. So it doesn't matter what the sanction is, so just get it done, get it out of the way before finals, and let's focus on Carlton Collingwood, Friday night wildcard, MCG, and that's all that matters.

SPEAKER_01

So you just want it swept under the carpet. You may as well go and get a job at AFL House for the city.

SPEAKER_00

No, I don't want it swept under the carpet. I just I just I just want them to get it done quickly.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

And make sure they're looked after. I just want it done quickly.

SPEAKER_01

Caro had a good call on it. I thought that came across my fee. And um, it was basically that the clubs are just sick of the preferential treatment that Chalog will be getting for years now. And I think with this sort of stuff, you start out as a bit of a conspiracy theorist, and then by the time you get three three years down the track.

SPEAKER_00

I just look at social. The majority are saying enough's enough now. And whether like, but the thing is, like, if if that's my club, I'd be pretty disappointed anyway. Because that's I I I I mean, we really care about I don't care about the administrators at my club, I care about the players.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. The first time it actually, the first time this I became aware of all this stuff, it was actually Richmond fans who were pointing it out to me because the first instance I fucking hate them, mate. Oh, right. The first instance of uh anything kind of um intertwined between decisions being made in but the AFL that could potentially be helped in Geelong was when um when I think it was Hawking went from working at Geelong to working at the AFL, and the first thing that they did was in um introduce the stand rule. And um and something that Richmond fans say that Geelong had had the opportunity to train for for months before the the rule came in. And it was all like engineered to try and to try and stop this Richmond juggernaut. That was the first thing that was a theory that came out. But um, I think there's a solution to all this, Wally. And there should be a grace period between working for an AFL club and working for the AFL. You should not be able to just jump straight from club land straight into a high-ranking position in the AFL or a decision-making position, or go the other way. Because the other thing that happened is when Stephen Hawking left the AFL and he went back to Geelong. Well, the first thing that happened after that was this um bizarre trade between Geelong and the Gold Coast, where not only did they get Jack Bose, but they picked up, I think, pick number seven or something as well. And also Bose was able to renegotiate his contract. So it wasn't like Geelong were taking on the horrible contract that Gold Coast had. And so Hawking would have been, having worked at the AFL, fully aware of all of the contracts of all the players in the other clubs. And so Geelong were in the prime position to go and pick that one off. Anyway, the idea is just you can't go from working at Plugland to the AFL within one year. You have to, it has to be a grace period.

SPEAKER_00

I reckon that I reckon a grace period of going into the media and seeing things differently. Because I'll tell you who I'd love to have working for the AFL, and I'm I wouldn't be alone here because everyone you hear him talk, is I would love, and funnily enough, it's another John person. But Jimmy Bartellon, the way he sees the game and the way he talks about the game with such logic, perfect example of someone, he was at that club but he's had enough time out of it. He watches so much, he consumes so much, he was an incredible player and competitor. Someone like that, I would love to see I ironically DeJoung as well, but in a role because you just see they give him more of a chance to go into the I think that you get to see the game under a different lens in the media. And if you're good at your media role, you watch so much football, and I would say you watch more football than any administrators do because they're so focused on their own club or they're focused on the job as a whole. Um, I don't mind people going into the media straight after footy, but yeah, that's what I'm saying. Go to the media and then go spend some time in the media, then go take a roll. Yeah. Anyway, we could go on for ages. I'm done with it. Uh, they just they need to get it fixed before finals. They really, really do. Uh, okay. Couple of questions from punters. Uh, Yab's asked us about resting players mid-game in the last couple of rounds and how we navigate it. Look, how do you try and work to it? Do you just avoid some teams altogether? Is there is there any strategy around this or is it just a like shit? It's it's pretty hard to predict specific players on every team. Is it more of a just an overarching approach to a team?

SPEAKER_01

Well, I'll tell you what, it it's um it probably gives you a good um reason. And I don't think you need much more of a uh a reason to do this anyway, but it reinforces the idea that singles betting singles should make up the the vast majority of your bets. Um I've always been a big proponent of like the singles are what keep you fed, um, and then like the the the multis are something you can have later because say you have five players in a in a bet, right, and one of them gets rested, well it kills your whole bet. But if you've got five players in a single, one of them gets rested, it might cost you one bet, but your your four other bets are still sweet. Um, and so that's probably just avoiding having everything in multis is probably your best way around it. And then um and then just looking at the clubs who have got a bit of a history of it. Um obviously we saw it on the weekend with um Panie. Uh he got rested, you know, for the last 20 minutes of the game when he was on, I think 24. So that's a really good example, probably one that Yab's uh picked up on there. So um, yes, it's a big factor now, and you know, it also maybe you could focus on guys who are you know unlikely to get rested. Like I you know, Geelong might be likely to give a Tom Stewart a bit of a rest, but they're probably not gonna give Tanner Glenn an extra rest, are they? You know, that type of thing. It's worth considering, I guess.

SPEAKER_00

You know, yep. Absolutely. Uh we got asked about with the Hall of Fame entries now. Do we want a Hall of Shame? Mate, in this climate, I'd be fucking cancelled, I reckon, if you bagged the player for missing a bet. So I think we'll leave the Hall of Shame alone. The other thing is, to be honest, there's enough negativity going on in the football landscape. Let's keep it positive. Um, yeah. So I've got I've I've I'm taking the break this way. I've got there's a Hall of Fame. If one doesn't present himself this week, I'm going back even further to the archives for one next week, Harris. So stay tuned for that. Um, our man Mickey Johnson, it's always great. He's always talking. He goes, he just wanted to know um best and worst teams punting wise this year at Harrow. I think that Port Adelaide Unders was one of our biggest of the year. What has there been any others?

SPEAKER_01

The Sydney Swans were very good to us early, weren't they? I think we've had them in maybe four best bets that have all got up. So definitely early the Swannies. Um later, like, yeah, as you said, Port, uh Brisbane Over as well has been pretty good, although that missed on the weekend. Um, I'll tell you right now, Harrow's back Harrow.

SPEAKER_00

We've missed the Hawks most times we've gotten around them. So they've been okay, they've been okay with some other betting, but yeah when we've actually lined them up as our best, we've we've been it hasn't been great.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, okay. Yeah. Um just quickly Yeah, no, West Coast, so I think they've been alright to us as well. And uh uh West Coast, I haven't looked at the Line Ladder recently, but they were leading the line ladder as well. North Melbourne as well. We've had we've had we've picked North Melbourne out playing at Marvel. North at Marvel has been a good one. Uh on the flip side, we've definitely tipped up a few um Collingwood. Um we've definitely tipped Collingwood up a few times and they've rolled us. So um I'd probably say they have been our biggest uh probably Nemesis or whatnot on the punt this year. And yeah, that's probably where I've been going.

SPEAKER_00

I think earlier before we knew the wheels would come off, I reckon I reckon Richmond haven't really been great to us either and have cost us the other way a couple of times. Um anyway, all good, Mark. Let's get into the footy for this weekend. As I said, there's two rounds to go before wild card and finals. As I always say, Harrow, very, very important to remember if you haven't checked out our Discord, check it out. There's a lot of cool stuff that goes on there. Competitions, we had a good competition winner last week. You check out what those are there. Um, we've got um another pod that goes out on a Friday morning post teams. There's suggested bets, the community gets involved. The stuff I love seeing is when people are like at the ground and they go, This this player's warming up with the defenders and things like that. And you're seeing those late moves and all that. It's a huge amount of uh value in there for punters to be able to see. All you've got to do, go onto our expage, go onto our Insta page. The instructions of how you do it uh are there. It's really easy. It should be easier because you've got to deal with Patreon and Discord, I'll be honest, but it's once you do it, it's it's all very easy. Um so do that. And if you're watching on YouTube, make sure you are subscribing, share it with your friends. Uh uh obviously all helps. All right, we're gonna get stuck in Fremantle or Adelaide. Now, the first three favorites of the round are all a dollar twenty nine exactly, and all the lines are 22.5 Harrow. There you go. Frio, Adelaide, Freo's $1.29, Adelaide's $3.66. As I said, the line is 22 and a half. Um, yeah, Adelaide not overly impressive, but the conditions were shocking. Richmond actually turned up, probably could have almost got the win, but the the two bizarre coaching moves um to just rank and dorse them were not taken care of when they when they could have been. I just I don't know what happened there. But uh, that one was one in the coach's box, not on the field, which is you can't a lot of Richmond's issues have stemmed from their list, but uh, I think they had the opportunity to win that one. Um so Adelaide now travelling out of Perth, Freel will want to win this one. It's their last home game for the regular season. Yeah, I'm I I don't know how much I want to be involved in the betting on it, just because the unpredictability of Adelaide at the moment.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I think um so probably every game, Wally, we're gonna talk a little bit about motivation coming into the last two rounds. Um, and so just using sort of that as a um as a starting point, you'd have to give the crows the big motivational edge in this one. It's just that the fact that they can finish anywhere from third to eighth. So the ramifications for them are a lot higher than um Frio, who realistically a worst case scenario, they could finish second by losing this and to the Blues and the Swans making up 10% on them. So a lot needs to change for Frio to just drop to second. Um and then even if they did drop to second, it doesn't even mean that they're not going to get their preferred opponent.

SPEAKER_00

So they get Hawthorne instead of probably Brisbane. Yeah. Like, which would you rather?

SPEAKER_01

I know, I know. So automatically rule out any kind of bet on Free A just based purely on um on motivation. And um uh also if they wanted to be really clever, I don't I don't think the gamesmanship goes this far, but say you this was your life was on the line, you're gonna do everything you can um to try and get yourself the premiership, um you'd leave the crows alive, wouldn't you? Like you'd leave them, um you'd want them trying to fight their way into fourth. Um and so you'd probably show absolutely zero cards to them, you'd lose, and um yeah, you hope that they would sneak into fourth and you get them because they're easily the most beatable side out of all the kind of contenders. Anyway, I don't think it goes that far. So the question really comes down to do you want to back up Crows getting a 23.5 start or at $3.65? I'm not sure I do, you know, because they're form stinks. And um if if and you know, Freya might just decide we're churning up the finals, we're just gonna turn up these last two games anyway. So uh I'm probably staying out of that. Um the total points is 170.5. Um, the last seven times these two coaches have met, six of them have gone under one seven. So although Trio are playing a high-scoring brand now, um Adelaide are actually playing very defensively. Um, and so I probably lean to the under in this one. Um outside of that, this is um the team that rates 18th for conceding to possessions is playing the team that concedes 17. So you don't get a tougher matchup in terms of um you know trying to find disposal bets. And the um the under bets, they're very um sensitive types of things. Like um You can find them yourself and back them. But like when I try like when I tip up a a dis a disposal under, um it just gets hit so hard. And then like, well, actually the bookies are just so sensitive. Anything you tip up that's an unders back just gets it gets uh moved immediately. And so it's a little bit tricky tipping up these unders um type lines. So, you know, the idea is probably for the punters if you can find it yourself and get on first, you're gonna um you're gonna probably do better. Um I have found a few. Um so look, I'm gonna put it this way wingers struggle, uh, both of these two sides. So work out who the wingers are, and um and also the uncontested possession players. So the players who go and get their the bulk of their possessions uncontested, they're likely to do poorly in this game. Um, and so rather than me just reading the names out um and the odds getting just crunched straight away and nobody gets on, I'd rather just give a few little hints and then maybe a few more people will be able to figure it out.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um Rankin and Dawson are both set really low though, and they're not the type of player who go super low in these types of contests. And um, and we've seen with Dawson, like the Crows will just move him around and get him in the position wherever they think the footy can be more often than not. And so Frio really unlikely to be tagging, um, given that they're mostly you know focusing on themselves, and they haven't generally tagged a lot anyway. Um, I think they may have used Johnson maybe once or twice, but um, those two guys in hot form, their lines are actually quite low at 23.5. That's okay. Um, one other one here, Woolley. We have to think back about a month when Darcy Fogerty last played. So he's coming off a three-game holiday with no injury. So he should be absolutely Cherry Right. And he was playing that disconnected full forward role before he went out. His last four games he kicked five, four, two, and four. Now he's $2.10 to kick two, and he's eleven dollars to kick four, which is something he'd done in three of his last four games. So there's a little goal kicker bet for the Punters as well.

SPEAKER_00

Love that, Harrow. Very, very good. All right, now that's our Friday night game. Obviously, there's no Thursday night footy uh this week. So we head to the Saturday, and the first game on the Saturday is Richmond St Kilda. Pig 364, St Kilda $1.29, Lions 22.5. I don't know what anyone's playing for here. Richmond probably now missed out on the spoon, but also missed out on pick one. It would take a miracle now for St Kilda to get into the 10. So you talk about motivation, and I mean St Kilda's still got some, but like it it'd take it really hard for them to make the 10, right?

SPEAKER_01

Not not uh nah, I wouldn't say it's um impossible. Like Carlton would need to lose to the Bulldogs in 3-0. Um and at the time that St. Kilda play this one, they won't know the result of Carlton Bulldogs. They're probably gonna presume Carlton will lose to 3-0. And then um St Kilda just need to win their last two games. So I I would expect St. Kilda will still be, you know, fairly motivated. Um, at least, you know, yeah, I I think they would be. So and Richman, obviously, um their ladder positions pretty unlikely to challenge. So and they look like they're trying, obviously, at the moment, they're they're kind of uh less the the bombers can pull off a wing, which is very unlikely.

SPEAKER_00

Harrow, I was trying to get I was trying to get you to give the kids a death to the baggers and go, oh yeah, they're no chance. They're no chance, but you didn't involve for it. Very good, very good, Harrow. Yeah, so obviously there is still some motivation for Zig Kilda. Yeah, um uh but yeah, not really for Richmond, as we know.

SPEAKER_01

Uh no, so um, so we we look outside of that, and um like I think my first protocol here is this is MCG daytime, sort of getting into it's August, I know, but you're getting these spring-like days uh now a little bit, and um, and so I I look at the higher scoring um for this one, Wally. And we know Richmond, I know that their game went super low on the weekend, but you've got to consider the opponent and the conditions, all right. Um, and so I think the over uh 166.5 here, Wally, is uh is a play. Um I think that in the perfect conditions with Richmond definitely uh having said publicly that they're working on trying to score a bit more. Um I think that that's a go. And then also you look at it from the St Kilda um side of it, like they've had you know, they've had the odd game go under this, but you it's really been um against opponents or in conditions that don't really suit. The vast majority of their games are over this. If you if you just go back, I'll just do it quickly on the run here. Since round 10, three five so they've had 10 games since round 10 and three under. So um, you know, I think that's it's a pretty strong trend. St Kilda aren't that that uh Ross Lyons not that sort of really Dow type anymore. And if you look at the games that went under in that since round 10, it was Port. Well, that's no surprise, is it? Um North Melbourne, who we know were trying to go defensive after they got belted. Um, and the Western Bulldogs, who have been one of the really low-scoring uh clubs this year. So um, oh yeah, I like the overtotal points in this one, Warwick. Um and you do get later in the season as well these um these overs games where uh you know, especially besides the pressure's off basically.

SPEAKER_00

160s, right? Mid 160s isn't a high line. Would you is this one you consider maybe a higher line as well? Because you're gonna get a good price for a 180, 190.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah, I think it's feasible. Um, that's fine. So um, yeah, and then looking outside of that, um so some disposal bets while we which our puppies love.

SPEAKER_02

Yep.

SPEAKER_01

Um we we saw on the weekend that uh and we've talked about it already, that that Richmond don't restrict the gun players, they um it's more the mediocre or middle range players who who can often go a little bit sort of towards their par. But also like just in the last five rounds, Richmond are still conceding AFL number three disposals, so they're still conceding high, um, even with a low game on the weekend, which I think was more about conditions. And then if you look at the the four, so who's who's gathering highest disposals? Well, St Kilda are gathering the third most disposals, should be a really good game for St. Kilda disposals. There's a few here, mate. Brad Hill, uh he looks like a guy that they're just going to be trying to get the footy in his hands um as often as possible. Um, and his line's 28.5 now. He's over that in five of his last seven games anyway, including you know uh a 37, a 39, a 42. So he's got the ability to go really high. This guy would had great success back in him, Worley, and he'd be in the mould of considered a gun, I think, now, and it's uh Max Hall. Yeah um and and his lines up a little bit, but he's coming off 30 against the Blues. His line's 25.5, playing the Tigers. He got over this last time against the Tigers. I feel like that's a pretty good um area to be. Um, this guy, mate, he's actually struggled a little bit um recently, and I just want to um put it out there for the punters that he may be not quite right since still in his ankle. It's Hugo Garcia, so perhaps he's one you want to leave alone. But I saw this guy get a big bump on the weekend when Naz went out of the game. He he ended up with the uh the 46% CBAs, which is up on his his norm, and his line's 22.5, and this guy's a gun. His name is Darcy Wilson. Now he's over 22.5 in six of his last seven games, regardless, and not considering the opponent. So I think there's um a few good ones there. Now, on the um Richmond side of things, obviously at Carlton last week we played um some guys like Florent, Billy Wilson, um these types for Carlton, um, Sherra off the halfback line. Now Jaden Short's line, he's had a he's had a quite few weeks, Warrior, but his line's now down to 20.5. And he's over that 13 of 19 this year. Um so long as yeah, he hasn't had a role change looking at his um his heat map here, so he's still got the role. He's just had actually a run of opponents that can seed really low to his position. So if you look at it, he's had Adelaide, West Coast, Hawthorne, and Carlton, where he's gone under in the last five weeks. Now, if I go to the defensive ball user here and and tell you who the bottom sides are for defensive ball user, Carlton, Hawthorne, and then you go skip one, you get the crows. So he's had three of the four bottom um cassettes uh to his position. And so it's no wonder he's had uh, and even West Coast are in the, you know, they're in the bottom uh eight for that as well. So he's just had a bit of a run of tough opponents, and now he gets a really good opponent in his position. So I think Jaden Short, they have a bit of a bounce back game there, is uh well and truly on the cards, mate. And um, I think we'll we'll leave it there.

SPEAKER_00

Great. All right, we'll go to North Melbourne v. Geelong, uh North 362, Geelong again, double 29, lines 22 and a half. Uh if it was at the cattery, the line would probably have an extra three goals on it. Um, but uh obviously this one's under the lid. Yep, yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um, and so obviously, motivation-wise, well, we can start out with that. Um North, yeah, they can't make it, I'm gonna say, because even if they even if um Carlton and St. Kilra stayed on 44 points or under 44 points, so North could level they could draw a level with them, but they'd also have to break up a shithope of percentage. So I'm just gonna say, yeah, they can't make it. Um, but you they knew that coming into last week and they still beat the doggies. So they'll they'll be trying um and you know, pressure off them a little bit as well. Cats, on the other hand, well, all the cats need is for Melbourne or Adelaide to or even Brisbane to lose one of their last three games, and they'll jump in the six um because they've got strong percentage.

SPEAKER_00

Um and there's still a chance at the top four as well, which is the ultimate, that's what you really want. So there's a lot of motivation for Geelong.

SPEAKER_01

Yes. So, I mean, you look at that dollar 29, you don't take $1.29 shots all the time. And perhaps, you know, north at Marvel, you maybe don't want to take it, but um yeah, it's uh it's something that you maybe we can have a bit of a multi with a few of these teams, Wally, with the hypers with the high.

SPEAKER_00

Usually usually comes off.

SPEAKER_01

Yes, yes, and we're getting some odds there too. So um, but what yeah, so straight up, okay. Well, yeah, I'm not too sure if we want to get involved with the 22.5. Just North, such a strong record at Marvel this year. Cats don't go there a lot, and when they do, they don't really love it. Um, but I do like you know, we get Marvel, which it's normally a decent um provides decent scoring, and I think North have gone away from the uh the idea of being you know super defensive. Um as we saw against the doggies, mate. The the it's like 177 in a doggies game is actually high for them. And um, and uh North actually were able to kick reasonably straight compared to the week before. So, and I spoke about it the previous weeks for North, the thing that had been holding back the scoring was really just the goal kicking. Um, and so the actual scoring shots uh have been high, like it was 182 points against the Hawks, but like we've over 50 scoring shots. So um, yeah, and and look, even on form, they've run Hawthorne to 16 points down at Utaz. Um, probably got Hawthorne ranked ahead of Geelong. So I'm not I'm not involved there, but I am involved. I'm happy to get involved in the over 180. Um, I think that and we know Geelong, they're always looking to score. Um, they play a really good brand in terms of that sort of thing. So happy to back that. Um, and then yeah, as we do, right, we're we'll have to take a look at the player um angles. Um Bailey Smith's line is now down at 28.5, so there must be a uh a heavy chance of a tag in that. Um, so there is like Fino Sullivan there or Jyson. And you look at last time that they played the ruse, um, Fino Sullivan tagged him and kept him to 26 disposers. So that kind of explains why uh Baz's line is down at um 28.5. If he didn't get tagged, he's over 28.5 uh 15 out of 20 games. So um shout out to this guy, mate. He had an absolute liner on the weekend. It's Luke Davies Jr. Um we've been a little bit critical of him. He probably hasn't had the best season, has he? But the game he played on the weekend is sensational. Um, it's just whether we think now um, so he's obviously in good form. He's had 27 against the or 31 against the doggies. It's just whether he um maybe gets that Mullen tag. Uh it'll probably be him or Sheasel, but I'm gonna probably lean to LDU after playing a game like that on the weekend. So outside of that, um uh I'm looking at so I had a couple of pictures out there, mate. Um Brian Myers, mate, he's a I don't know what's going on with him, but he obviously got tagged against the D's, and then he got off to a flyer against the prize, and then they put someone on him, and then um then against the bombers, he was just yeah, nowhere. So I'm not too sure what's going on with him. Um I think he might have popped a bit of a knock or an injury, so watch watch out for him. Simpkin, we mentioned that he's been booted out of the midfield last week um by Wardlaw coming back, and we did tip up his unders, and he did have 17, and his line's still at 20. So he could be a guy that you look to go under. Now, this is an interesting one, Warrior. For the first three quarters of the season, North were close to the bottom in conceding possessions to defend a ball user. If you isolate the last five rounds, obviously North have changed a few things because they're now conceded number one to defend a ball user. Um sorry, and I'll just go through a few of them. Jarman Impy 30, Brad Hill 34, Jake Bowie 29, Josh Dacos 33. So there's a pretty strong trend now that North are not defending those type of guys. So who would that be for the Cats? Is it a Lawson Humphreys whose line is 19.5? Um he got 23 last week. So that's a guy you could definitely um consider from the cats point of view.

SPEAKER_00

Okay, maybe Humphreys. All right, no worries. Okay, mate, we'll move on now to Brisbane, the Gold Coast. Brisbane's $1.18, Gold Coast $4.95, 32 and a half point line. Brisbane's playing for everything, Gold Coast season is cooked. But they don't own their pick, so their life just gets shitter. Let's be honest. Just garbage. I I know they had the win on the weekend, but like it doesn't like just things are not good up there. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Um, so Frizzy actually percentage is still a big factor for Brisbane, isn't it? Because they could end up on equal points with either Adelaide or Geelong who are both.

SPEAKER_00

I think Geelong's three points ahead, a percentage points ahead, and Adelaide and Nemerite 0.2 apart, so it's a kick. So it is very important.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah. And um they're just so I feel like, you know, obviously half the trick with Brisbane is uh working out if they're going to turn up properly or not. You would have to say in a game like this that they're gonna be turning up, aren't they? Um, there's really no excuses, why not? Now, I think Gold Coast have got about the weakest um defense we've seen in some time. Um and so this could be a cricket score. Um, and so I like the over one, I think it was 185.5, not sure if it's moved to let me double check.

SPEAKER_00

It's 188.5 currently.

SPEAKER_01

Okay, so it's up a couple. So yeah, I still like it over. I like I rarely tip up well these lines over on the getting up to 190, but I just struggle to see, like, with the way that Gold Coast defend, that this won't be basically a goal first. Um, and Brisbane at the moment, uh, if you look at it in the last five rounds, they're averaging 16.6 goals a game. AFL number one, they're averaging 111 points per game. And then if you look at the against Waley, um and this is with Gold Coast playing in a wet one. Um, over the last five rounds, Gold Coast are averaging third in the comp um in terms of scores conceded at 100. Um, only like Esther and Fort are conceding more. Um, and you've got to think, you know, Court just had a huge score fix against them on the weekend. So and Gold Coast played in one on the wet. So I think this is just gonna be a um a goal fest, and uh Brisbane are gonna you know run all over them basically. And I I don't think that the line is enough. Um, I think it'll be a bigger win than 32 points for Brisbane, basically. So happy with the overs and play play Brisbane. And then in a game like this, you've probably got to consider the uh the goal kickers as well.

SPEAKER_00

Um and just looking at Roman, Cameron, Morris were the they were the they've been the ones damaging on the scoreboard.

SPEAKER_01

So Logan Morris, mate, if you backed him to kick three, you're getting over two goals for that. Now he's done that in over 50% of his games um so far this season. And look, it'd be nice to see um Sam Collins mission, too. He's out, yeah. That even weakens the Gold Coast defense even more. Um, but look, yeah, go through the Lowman's just on absolute fire, right? So him to kick three, he's $2.65. Well, he's done that in five of his last six games. Wall. Um, so there's plenty to like um in those sort of areas. Um disposals well now. Brisbane are conceding, just quickly get it back up again. In the last five rounds, they're conceding the least disposals in the comp, which looks much more like their profile that they had in the back half of last season when they wanted to win the flag. Um and so I would be focusing any disposal bets around Brisbane players, um, certainly, because I think we're gonna control the footy um most of most of the night, basically. And so who are we looking at there? Well, um Will Ashcroft, his line 30.5. Well, he's the lowest he's had in these last eight games is 30. Um, and so you can't not consider him. And again, we mentioned last week that he gets a bit of a bug with McCluggage going out, and he did. He went from having uh like he's had 48% CBAs, and then McCluggage goes out and he has 62 and 77, and he he flies well over in both of them. So uh that's a guy I'd I'd definitely uh be happy to play. And then looking outside of that, Josh Dunkley, mate, he seems to be finding a fair bit more of the footy at the moment, but he's probably going to be head to head with. Brow here, isn't he? Um, and so that'll be now if if Dunkley's gonna be head to head with Brow, we can probably go back to having a bet on Anderson, who needs 25 for his line. Um, and that's a pretty low line for a guy who knows how to find the footy like he does. And he actually doesn't have a bad record against the Lions. He got 25 against the last line anyway. Um Zach Bailey, he's another one. He needs 21 Worley, and he's over that seven of his last 10. Uh again, no McCluggage. Uh, he should do plenty of damage. Um Jared Berry, he's another one who I think's getting back to some good form now. He he was the topic of a fair bit of discussion in our uh Discord on the weekend because um people were uh sort of saying, I think I I I've had him in a multi or something for 14, and we're like, oh Berry, you know, he he he has missed, I think he missed 14 once in his last 108 games or something. He's so consistent this way. Um, but you need him to get 19 in this one, and I feel like he's uh he's in good form and he'll be able to do that. So there's there's a few for the Punches uh on this one, really.

SPEAKER_00

All right, we've got double headers Saturday night. We've got Hawthorne Collingwood at the G, $1.38 for the Hawks, Collingwood's 328, 9.5 points. Collingwood are going to be playing in the wild card where they play, it doesn't really matter. Hawthorne need to win um the next two games just to ensure they get that top four spot. More importantly, they can't be knocked out of third. So I think that a trip to Sydney would be a lot more tempting than a trip to Perth in the first week of the finals, Harrow. So Hawthorne have a lot to pay for.

SPEAKER_01

Yes, agreed. Um and just running a quick multi-wide um of these teams that I I think are uh got a lot more motivation. Um just the Hawthorne Brisbane Geelong gets you over $2.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um you add in Melbourne, who we haven't got to yet, but we you're getting up to $250 for that. So um, yeah, I feel like yeah, there's a there's a bit of a contingency. Yeah, absolutely. Um so where do we go here? They're looking at oh yeah, no, the hooks. Yeah, and as you said, Wallie, definitely Collingwood are just locked into their spot. And I feel like Cullingwood are playing the long game as well, aren't they? Like they're they actually they're actually definitely thinking that they want to have a big impact in the finals. You've heard them say it, and they they want to try and win the flag, and and so they're gonna be um they're gonna be doing everything aiming towards that. And really, I don't know what they could gain out of um out of you know trying to put everything into this game. And so we might see them continue to rest the players like Degoe. Um they could even give Dacos a rest before the end of the season. Um, given that also his Brownlays, I think, yeah, I think that's pretty well sewn up too. So, yeah, looking for Collingwood to potentially play a few of the games here and Hawks with everything to play for, um, that's where we want to be, uh, put pretty simply. Um, also Woolley, um the total point's 175.5. Well, Collingwood aren't a low-scoring team anymore, and the Hawks certainly like to score as well. So um I think uh yeah, I'm more than happy to be with the over 175.5 as well.

SPEAKER_00

Um clear conditions on a Saturday night at the G2.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I'm happy with that.

SPEAKER_00

So uh in terms of disposals here, now we we've seen the last couple of years, Collingwood's allowed a lot of disposal in different areas of the ground. Where do you think we're at with that now? Are we are we looking at mids? Are we looking at defensive ball users? Are we looking at the outside players, Arrow?

SPEAKER_01

So looking at it here, Collingwood are actually number two to um outside mids at the moment. Um and then inside mids, they're actually in the bottom half of the table, and I think that's because they've now got Ed Allen in there keeping the main guy a bit quiet. He was really good on the window. I like it. Yeah. Um and even the defensive ball users are there, they're only mid-table. So Collingwood are mid-table on most um on most of the positions, and then if you're looking at um just overall disposals against um Collingwood are eighth um at the moment over the last five rounds. If you want to look at it over the whole season, they're actually fourth. So over the course of the whole season, they're still conceding really high disposals, but it looks like if you just isolate the last five games, they're um they're looking like more of a mid-table team for conceding disposals. But um, where they do cough it up is uncontested possessions. So um looking at that, yeah, fourth against the uncontested possessions, and we know the Hawks, they love an uncontested possession, don't they? So um we'd probably be able to look at some of those Hawks players who get a lot of marks. The year um D'Ambrosio, yeah, Ginnovan, who had a bad game on the weekend, he'd be wanting to bounce back. Um, certainly actually a lot of these Hawks players being bounced back after the weekend. So actually, Ginnavan's still got his 20 possessions on the weekend.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, because he was he was good early, dropped off throughout. But like I mean, this feels like one of these ones when teams get named sort of thing that we can have another look at.

SPEAKER_01

And yeah, well, just Ginny in general, he's um he's over 27 of his last nine games, um, and he his miss was a 19 and a 17. So um he's going pretty well. I thought for some reason he had a bad game on the weekend, but he didn't. If the pies don't make heaps of changes, um and this guy holds his role, uh, it's Ned Long, um, who had 25 on the weekend. So it really is gonna depend on team changes. Like if Pendles and DeGoey come back, whatnot, yeah, he'll probably get shifted back out and he's gonna go back down to having his 13 to 15. But uh if he if he keeps his spot, uh be happy to back in to have 20. Um, yeah, so that's uh that's probably where we're at. Could be a good one for goals, too, given we think the total points is um set a little bit too low. Um and the the Wiz had a bit of a shocker, didn't he, on the weekend?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, he did. So this is the other thing, though. This is you can you can back the whiz with confidence this season overall. But like we don't know what's going to be happening at the selection table here. I don't think Hawthorne can go in with two rucks again. What does that mean? What goes on with the forwards? Like we just don't know. There's so much with Collingwood and Hawthorne. This is such a see what the teams look like before making player prop bets, is my I think.

SPEAKER_01

All right. Happy to roll it forward. Yep, yep, no problem.

SPEAKER_00

Um, okay, great. Okay. Um Port Adelaide, Melbourne. Talking the other team there, Melbourne's a lot to pay for. Port's 425. Melbourne's $1.23. The lines 28 and a half over at Adelaide Oval.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Yeah. Well, you talked about um changes in style, Wally, just um in recent times. And we know that Port earlier in the season were like basically very stingy. Well, if you just isolate the last five games, Port are now conceiving the most disposers in the AFL, 402 over the last five games. Um, and so they haven't really been able to sustain that pressure and that style that they had earlier in the year. And fair enough, there's you know big personnel um out the port, basically. So it's been been a bit of a tough run for them. Um, but it probably gives us a good opportunity to find a few um that's obviously allow Melbourne to win just with the way they're playing, they're sensational and even away from home. Um they should be winning. And then it's obviously do you want to follow up and back them at the line? Um this percentage isn't a big player for Melbourne. Um so yeah, but they seem to be just the sort of side who just play, they just you know, they just play right to the whistle anyway. So I I don't know, but definitely happy to have them in a multi just to win, um, just with that motivational multi. Um then yeah, outside of that, the total points is getting up there a little bit higher for a port game, um 182.5. So, but we did see the SWADI's um obviously blow them away on the weekend. I just want to double check if that went over actually. I think it did because it was like a 12 goal. Oh yeah, 230 something points, yeah. Um it was the first quarter, I think, was a little bit low, yeah, six goals, and then yeah, Sydney kicked nine in the second and ten in the last.

SPEAKER_02

So yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um, and so who are we looking up for the D's, mate? Um, I'll tell you who I loved his game on the weekend was Harrison Petty. He was sensational. Now he's $2.05 to kick two goals here against Port, who have a week, they've got a week in key defense, don't they? They've got uh they've got like a 19-year-old playing callback at the moment. And he's kicked, and and look, probably, and we back Burno didn't we to kick five when we went that was good. Um, but he had a Lear who's better than the kid. Now, Van Ruin's probably gonna get a Lear. Absolutely. Harrison Petty's kicked uh three, three, and four his last three games. Um, and before his three games before that, he's kicked two, two, and two, and he's two dollars and five cents here to kick two. Um love that one. I don't know. Yeah, yeah, he's two. Oh no, hang on, it's just shifted. Right, he's now I was looking at the double, sorry, I was looking at the double one. He's uh he's so at double, he's two dollars if you have him in a pick up, basically. But he's at a dollar sixty to kick two, which he's done in his last six games.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Uh uh, but you can still get three dollars for him to kick three, which he's done in his last three.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. That's great.

SPEAKER_01

And you're getting three dollars. So there's another guy who I've noticed, um, his odds are being crushed now. But uh Chandler's another guy, so he's he's actually good odds for he's a dollar 77 to kick one. Well, he's done that in 13 of his 20 games anyway. Um, so he's uh he's a good chance. Harvey Lankford as well, he's a dollar eighty to kick one, and he's done that in 14 of 21 games. If we think that the D's are gonna have a decent score here, um a lot of these guys look like they're good value from a disposal point of view. Sparrow, his line's 24.5. Now he hasn't been below 24 in his last nine games. So that means that looks like it's good value considering he's now playing the standards, giving up the most disposals. They're not tagging. Um, so that straight away brings Cosy Pickett into play, and he's lines 24.5. Um, he's he's doing really well, Coz. This guy annoyed me on the weekend because we backed him the week before and he got 17 in and then he comes out and gets 34 against the Swans. That's Jace Burgoyne. Uh frustrating. Um, apart from that, Wally, I think we've um we're on to a few there.

SPEAKER_00

So you can build you can build disposal multis around Melbourne players with the conference of that stat the last five weeks. Um they've uh yeah, they've gone well. Now, Sunday games, as we know, we it's it's a lot harder to go into too much detail because there's so much time between now and then in terms of the player bets, but overarching. We start with GWS West Coast. Uh the Giants here understandably short favourites at uh $1.14, I think they are Harrow. West Coast $5.75. The Lions 33 and a half points.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Um, is there a bit of weather in play in this hand for it? And it's it's in Sydney, right? Yep. One to seven mil. Yeah. So keep an eye on that because that could dictate where you want to go about your table points as well. So um, but I mean GWS technically they can you know still make the finals. Um it relies on obviously Carlton losing both of their last two games, St. Kilda not winning both of their last two games, and making up a little bit of percentage. Um, but I just don't have any faith in the Giants that they're you know going to run this out to the line. They've been awfully disappointing, I think. And look, you know, you've got to give them some leeway with the just the amount of injuries that they've had this year have been absolutely cruel. Um, now West Coast, I was very disappointed with them on the weekend. Collingwood took over a team that wasn't super dissimilar to them in terms of experience. Um, so Collingwood went over with 10 players under 50 games, and and that's what West Coast had as well, and at home, and they still couldn't get it done. So they were a bit disappointing, I thought. West Coast. But here they play, you know, a lesser opponent, yes, they're traveling, but getting a 33-point start, um, you know, I probably lean to West Coast, but I don't have a it's not something I'm I may not even probably back it. But if you wanted that, that's where I'll be I'll be leaning. Um other areas well now. The Giants they do keep defendable user types on the lower side. Um now with West Coast, obviously with Herbert had been going gangbusters. Um but what happened on the weekend was they brought back in two other defendable users as well, in Lindsay and Baker. And they both ate into his uh into his sort of play for a bit, and and that caused him to go under. So um he's a guy I'm probably yeah, given the opponent, you could probably oppose him at 23.5. Um and then outside of that, like who else are we looking at the? I've been a little bit cautious of Oliver, um, who had a better game on the weekend, but he's not um they've kind of thrust him back into the midfield um in a big way because I think the style of the game was being played in. But yeah, he's he's been getting moved around a little bit. Um, Toby Green came back in and he had his 18 disposals, and he he only played the 30% midfield, so I think they're gonna keep him forward um more often than not. Um outside of that, mate, I don't have heaps for us on this one. It's a bit of a tricky one.

SPEAKER_00

All right, next game uh on the Sunday Harrow. Western Bulldogs Carlton. This is a huge one. It's that uh feature game in the middle of the Sunday Arbo on free-to-wear TV. Western Bulldogs are $2.53. Carlton, the $1.52 favorites. The line is a couple of goals. What to pay for?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Um, so this one, Western Bulldogs are a little bit like Collinger. They they're basically locked in to either finishing as high as seventh or as low as tenth.

SPEAKER_00

And really, it looks like it's not gonna actually really they could get to eighth, because I don't think the cats are yeah, but the thing is that if if if the ninth or eighth, they avoid if they're tenth, there's every chance they've got to go to out of eight.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, potentially, potentially. But I I think the dogs are gonna prioritize trying to feel as made it. Yeah, yeah, they're gonna just try and be as good as they can and they'll finish where they finish, somewhere in that seven to ten, and I don't think it's gonna make a huge difference where they finish in that seven to ten. So obviously, Carlton, this is obviously last week was a massive game against St. Peter, but this is um they win this, and then Carlton can do whatever they want in the last round against Perl. It may give Carlton the opportunity to enter freshen some guys up before they go into a wild card. So Carlton, everything to play for, regardless of that, their form is so much better than the doggies anyway. Um, and so I've I mean Carlton opened up at three and a half. Well known to Punters who jumped on that because that was just superb valuable. Um now I think they're at 11 and a half, and I still like it. So um happy to be with the baggers, mate. Um, outside of that, like we look at player um bets. Now the dogs have been conceding um a lot more possessions um than they have in their longer history, like they're fourth in the AFL over the last five rounds. Um, and then yeah, against like in 2026 altogether, they're conceding 388 exposures, AFL number two. So, and Carlton, mate, Carlton have really flipped it since Fraser came on board. So if you look at the last 10 games, um Carlton is second on the disposal ladder, nearly averaging almost 400. So it's a really good matchup here for Carlton and their their disposals. Um, and so who are we gonna find here, mate? We know that the dogs don't tag. Uh Sammy Welsh, 27.5. Um, he's gonna be pretty hard to stop. Uh Patty Kritz is actually his line's dropped right down now. So he's at 25.5. He got 29 against the dogs last time. Um, and so he's gonna be he's gonna be right in the stick of the action. Um, I'd be interested to see if Cherok misses, because that could give another um defender ball user for Falton a bit more of an um opportunity. But like Florent, who's in really good form now, he's nine, he's 23.5. He's over that in all of his last four games. Um, and I think he's really flourishing with Nick Newman not being there, so there's a little bit more ball getting directed through him. So, yeah, sort of focusing on the Carlton disposals. Um, Blake Akers was as well. We had a good bet on on the weekend as well. Um, Doggies are conceding number three to wingers at the moment, and he needs 20 since he's come back into the side. He's done that in six out of his eight games anyway. So uh I'll tell you who not to black, Libra. Um, I don't know what Bebo was thinking, but he played with uh Libba out on a wing on the weekend, caught us all by surprise, um, and he now was a 15, so just uh stick with him. But Carlton disposal should be, as we say, you know, a bit of a party uh for them this weekend.

SPEAKER_00

Awesome, mate. Uh last game is Essen and the Sydney. Um things don't get any easier for the bombers. They're 15 bucks. I mean, Sydney's a Doro too. The line is 60.5.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, it's just tough to get involved in a line like that, isn't it? If anything, yeah, I'm not gonna get involved.

SPEAKER_00

It's so tough to get involved. Oh, Sydney get well, they they're not gonna chase down Freo. As long as they get the win, Hawthorne can't overtake them. Like, where's their motivation, Harrow? They're just gonna surely this is a rock up, get the points, go home. Make sure you know you put players on ice. Like, this for me, and I might be wrong, is just the biggest no back game outside of Charlie Curno because he's playing on a ground, he's dominated before uh against an average back line, and the Coleman is on the line. So for me, this is Charlie Curno goals and nothing else.

SPEAKER_01

Yep, let me just have a look at what his goals are. Now, obviously, we'll probably do it in the early main for kick four and Jenny Burns. That's spot on. So, yeah, Charlie's uh two dollars to kick four. Pretty hard to see, not doing it, right? Unless it's just the Swans don't really care at all. But there's that there's one other way you could play this ball, and we saw the Swannies put uh Haney, Turno, uh Mills, and Halfley, I think, is the other guy. So those four guys didn't play basically oh no, Chad Warner. They didn't play the last 20 minutes of the game on the recount against four. Now, you will get a 15-point star for Essendon in the last quarter if you just wanted to have a last quarter line. Um that's probably reasonable, that's probably not a bad way to play that, um, just given that you know Swanies are likely to put put their stars on ice again. Um, and Essendon, there's no reason why they won't try and play the game out there just for them to develop. One guy I do want to give a mention to from Essendon, because I've got plenty of Dons fans um who listen to the show. Dyson Sharp. Yeah. Yeah, we have followed him and we've backed him quite a lot, um, and he's been very good to us all. So his line is 20.5, he's over that in all of his last four games, including last week. He had a career high, 27 disposals. So he's a guy who just you know, he just looks like the type of player who's gonna show up for you every week. Yep. Um, so he, you know, if you want to find a bet on a wrestling guy, um, who's who's got a bit of a he's gonna be a bit of the future of that club, I reckon. Not that he's like an outstanding player, but he just looks like a really reliable guy that's gonna show up for. So um, yeah, that that's one for us.

SPEAKER_00

Yep, love it. All right, mate. That'll do us uh for this week. I'm just gonna need the best bet of the round.

SPEAKER_01

Uh look, well, we're gonna go back to the well and back the team that's got you know the second best profile in the last uh 10 weeks, and that's the blues to get the doggies. Uh I wish we hadn't been able to do the show yesterday. We would have got minus three and a half, but we're just gonna have to take the minus eleven and a half and um and cheer on the baggers again on a Sunday either.

SPEAKER_00

There you go. All right, Harry, been great as always, mate. Have a fantastic rest of the week. Good luck to your baggers on securing a wildcard spot. I think that them veg collingwood's what we're all after. And uh we'll see you next week.

SPEAKER_01

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