EP: 009 Mid-Year Housing Market Update for Anacortes & Skagit County with Leslie Iacolucci

Leslia Iacolucci joins the John L. Scott Real Estate Anacortes Get in Real Podcast to share a mid-year housing update for Anacortes Washington and Skagit County. 

00:30 About Leslie Iacolucci and her experience serving the Anacortes community.

03:00 Skagit County housing update from Leslie.

04:15 Paul Balzotti & Howard on why home prices are up and home sales are down.

07;11 Leslie on the Anacortes Washington housing market update. 

08:00 Paul on the housing forecast for the second half of the year.

09:21 Leslie on new building starts in Anacortes.

11:00 Timing your purchase with Leslie. 

For more reach out to leslielac@johnlscott.com

Transcript

Summary
In this episode, Paul and Howard interview Leslie Iacolucci, a real estate expert who serves the community in Skagit County and beyond. Leslie shares her background and knowledge of the area, highlighting the unique features and lifestyle it offers. They discuss the current real estate market in Skagit County, noting the shortage of inventory in lower price points and the slower market for homes over $1 million. They also explore the impact of interest rates on sales and home values, as well as the potential for building ADUs to meet housing needs. Overall, the conversation emphasizes the importance of working with a local expert and considering long-term housing strategies.
Keywords
real estate, Skagit County, community, lifestyle, inventory shortage, home values, interest rates, ADUs, housing strategies
Takeaways
Skagit County has a shortage of inventory in lower price points, making it a competitive market for buyers.
Homes over $1 million have more selection and a slower market, providing opportunities for buyers.
Interest rates play a significant role in the real estate market, with lower rates driving demand and potentially increasing home values.
Building accessory dwelling units (ADUs) is a growing trend in Anacortes, offering housing options and potential income streams.
Working with a local expert who understands the market and housing options is crucial for making informed decisions.
Titles
Exploring Skagit County's Real Estate Market
Long-Term Housing Strategies: Patience and Planning
Sound Bites
"Tell us a little bit about, you know, where you serve real estate"
"When you get over 1 million, then that's a great place to be for buyers right now"
"There are simply people waiting on the wings for properties to come on the market, interest rates to drop"
Chapters
00:00
Introduction and Background
02:20
Skagit County: A Diverse Market
03:47
The Impact of Interest Rates
06:10
The Rise of ADUs
09:31
Long-Term Housing Strategies
11:43
Working with a Local Expert
14:06
Conclusion


Well welcome everybody to another edition of Getting Real with Paul and Howard and in this episode we always have a special guest, a real estate expert who loves the community, knows the community and we've got Leslie Iacolucci. You you know the community, love the community just like I talked about and specifically you service, know, everywhere from Skagit County, you also go into Island County, but you really do know the community and but just first of all, tell us a little bit about, you know, where you serve real estate

You know, like, did you grow up in the area? you from outer barrier? Give a little background about yourself. Well, first of all, I grew up sort of around Bay Bridge Island area around Kingston and Indianola. So I always say like, you know, I'm local because it's on the peninsula and you know, we would go to Port Angeles and swim and, and the Cortis is kind of unique in the fact that we can get to a swim in those places pretty easily just

traveling over the bridge to Deception Pass and going and taking the Coupeville Ferry. So I feel like I really know, you know, the community and the areas and the Puget Sound in general. So that's really fun. But yeah, I moved here seven years ago when my husband, he's the golf pro over at the Swinomish Golf Links. And I love golf and this has just been a great community. We get lots of retirees moving here. People are moving. I keep people all the time from Seattle who

you know, or just want to get out of the fray and have a little bit more chill lifestyle. I feel like we kind of have the island lifestyle here with the hiking, biking, boating. It's just so fun. We kind of have the best of all worlds in Anacortes Pacific Lake you're talking about because you don't have to take a ferry, right? It's the gateway to the other islands, but you don't have to take a ferry, which is awesome. And so right there, you've got both deception pass over to Whidbey, but you can just stay on Anacortes, but you can also just

hop on and get onto the San Juans if you wanted to as well. But you also service just Skagit County, which is a little bit, mean, like obviously Anacortes is in Skagit County, or really right at the crossroads between Island and Skagit and San Juan counties. But Skagit County, just along the I -5 corridor, all the way up from San Juan and Camano, and of course, Burlington and Mount Vernon, but you service that community as well. So tell us a little bit about.

Howard Chung (02:20.29)
that community and what's been happening in the markets there. You're right. It's so easy from Anacortes since we're not very bound to be able to just drive over to the I -5 corridor where there's a Costco shopping. There's so many different communities over there from Cedar Road, Woolley and up to Bellingham along Chukunut. Such a great farming community as well as we have all the services too. yeah, but what we've been seeing in the Skagit County is

We still have a shortage of inventory, of course, and we're still seeing it in the lower price points. There's a severe shortage, and that means that it's competitive in those price points. From 500 to 750 ,000, we've had 68 new listings in June, and 62 went pending. So it shows that there's a shortage in that price point as well. And from 750 to 1 million, we

Exactly 23 new listings and 23 pending. So that is a shortage as well. It's more considered low inventory, but when you get over 1 million, then that's a great place to be for buyers right now. There's definitely more selection and the market's a little bit slower right there. So people are taking their time and really finding something that they like. The stats are interesting because

On the one hand, when people ask us how's the market, you always want what always depends, right? Are you a buyer or are a seller? But also there's the home sales, like how many homes are actually selling versus home prices. And you never know what somebody is really asking when they ask that question or the way they're going to interpret it. And I think it's worth discussing a little bit here on the podcast that right now,

And Howard, correct me if I'm wrong, but I was just looking at the last 10 years, but I think that it's longer than that. That year to date, when adjusted for population essentially, in Western Washington in general, we're at the lowest sales pace in recent history, far as less people are moving in general than really, you know, a very, very long time. I know at least 10 years, home sales are down.

Howard Chung (04:46.382)
15, 20 % in Washington state just from last year and then another 15, 20 % from the year before, maybe more than that. Yet, you know, we know the home values have, have maintained and the supply and demand for the people that are moving the, you know, the listings versus sales to Leslie's point, that's really remarkable when you're basically talking about a one month supply in Skagit County in those.

medium to even higher end price range up to a million, home values have stayed up. And in fact, in Skagit County, I think they're up about 5 % year to date, but home sales overall are way down. So people just aren't moving to the same amount. I think we always have to remember like, you know, the statistics can be somewhat misleading to consumers in general. There's like certain assumptions that are made when like there's fewer home sales, right? Which is, oh, well, the demand must have been, you know, decreasing.

Well, yeah, demand is decreasing because there's not enough inventory because enough home builders aren't basically building the homes and people who have moved already, they're pretty happy because they were coming off a record sales, right? From the past, like in the previous like three, four years. And so when people move, it's not like they immediately want to move again. Plus they're sitting on those amazing low interest rates. But there is what's called the pent up demand. Lettuce talks about this all the time, which

There are simply people waiting on the wings for properties to come on the market, interest rates to drop, right? So there are certain conditions, but the desire to move, right, is absolutely there, which is why you are still seeing, you of the homes that do come on the market, they're basically being absorbed really fast. And what a lot of statistics don't share are the percentage of homes selling in the first 30 days. That is a statistic that we share every single week at Donald Scott, which is, oh, we got to actually see

What is that fast demand that within the first 30 days, actually a lot of times within the first week, you know, how many of those new listings coming on the market go pending and it's still at a really, really fast pace. So we definitely know under a million. Absolutely. You know, the demand is still there. Buyers are still there. Yeah. I mean, if you just look at our median house price range in Anacortes here too, I mean, that's, that's up a 9 % year over year.

Howard Chung (07:08.138)
It's not getting any better. kind of feel like there's a little bit of a, know, buyers are able to take this opportunity where, why the interest rates are still a little bit higher. As soon as they go lower, it's just going to get crazy again. With the metrics, it's like you got month supply and you have interest rates. And so, you know, if we have a one to two month supply under a million dollars in Anacortes and throughout Skagit County, then the sign is actually pointing

upward pressure on pricing. If somebody is trying to forecast, it going to be more expensive to buy in the future or the prices come down? The only other factor that usually is in play, of course, there could be major national and local economic factors, but sketch it in an accord is to me, of course, the job market matters, but it's not the same as Seattle, right? So because

with remote work now and with people commuting up to Skagit County or retiring in Dana -Cortis, the market is not, I think, is job dependent, I would say. Of course, it always is a little bit. It's more just like the best indicators right now are month supply and interest rates. Month supply is still one to three months, which is upward pressure on pricing. So would you guys both agree that basically if rates go up, then perhaps

sales would continue to be slow and perhaps home values would, you know, could dip a little bit, especially on the upper end. But if rates go down, then especially half a percent, three quarters of a percent later this year and the next year, especially under a million, there's nowhere for them to go but up because of that demand. And it's like people, we're realtors and we're always talking about, you know, prices going up. And I know that's just sounds like cliche realtor talk,

Statistically, it just seems like the only way that we can see things going. mean, do you guys have anything to add or? You know, I don't think so. I was listening to the city of Anacortes, their meetings, they always have like, they were talking about how many new building permits they had in the past year. And for single family residents, they had one new building permit for that. So that was really low is what they said. I mean, perhaps there's more.

Howard Chung (09:31.534)
I know we've had some, know, cottage developments and things like that that are a little bit higher density. But as far as single family residences, there's only had one in the past year. So yeah, the building new building starts are very, very low. And so it really is kind of that mentality that people have got to like rethink, well, if I am thinking about making a move because I've got a life need or a life circumstance.

they should go ahead and do it, especially if they own a home because they're going to able to sell and buy within that same market time period. So they're going to be just fine. And the other thing too that we have to remember is so many of the homeowners have so much equity. As long as they bought the house like two, three or more years or longer, lots of equity has been built up. We're still seeing those great appreciation gains. And of course we always have to make sure, we're talking about the hyper local market. We're talking about Skagit County specifically.

Even within Skagit market, which city, what price category versus on the national level, you might see different news all over the place. So it's so important to talk to, of course, a local expert who understands those statistics, buyer demands, and some of those things. Even though there is a little bit of inventory shortage, they want to take their time to really find something. And there's no rush because they probably own another home somewhere.

and they might be saving that home to keep as a rental and be thinking about, I'm going to retire in the next two to five years and I want to be an anacortist. So I'm going to really take my time to find something that's perfect for me. And, and you know, that's, that's fun. We, a lot of times we'll work with people two or three years to find the perfect place.

I also heard that there's people who might purchase now because now is a good opportunity and then they can rent it out for the next couple of years and then save it, you know, to kind of have that price lock in for retirement. So that's an interesting proposition too. Yeah, you know, one of the things that I think is going to be an ongoing trend is this whole, I mean, we already have been talking about ADUs a

Howard Chung (11:43.842)
But Anacortes is pretty ADU friendly. mean, they're based absolutely like, you know, running along with the changes, you know, with the state of Washington in terms of the law. And so the homes that don't have any components that, you know, that prevents ADUs from being built, consumers could consider, I could buy a house, maybe add an ADU, increase the value to the home, you know, get some supplemental, of course, you know, income, you know, through the

Or and or, know, eventually, or maybe extended family, or they can even move into the ADU, which maybe is a one level and then eventually rent out the other. You can also create condos. There's just different housing, I think, moving into the future that people have not thought of. So nowadays you not only need to have, you know, a good realtor, you know, who knows the properties, but what can you do to the property, right? Moving into the future. You know, do you have a contractor who might also be able to add the

whether it's a detached or attached converter garage. So it is a very interesting time to consider the different housing scenarios that might come up for somebody as they're looking. Yeah, the city of Anacortes is very pro -ADU. I know that they would like to expand those permits for sure. interesting enough, right across the street from me a neighbor, small house, they've got like three kids now, and they decided

Since it had alley access, they got their permit with the city and they just dug the big hole and I'm so curious to see this new ADU go up. It's going to be amazing. They need it for just their family to come visit since their house and the number of people are expanding and they need that ADU. So it'll be fun. Well, mean, you said it. mean, what was it? $750 million a million?

23 pending, or 23 available, 23 pending. And that's been kind of the trend line in Anacortes for some time. And so, and Leslie, you made a great point and you're the right person for this because we're talking about you have to be ready to go right now, but then also be prepared for the long game of waiting because there is gonna be lower sales, lower inventory for the foreseeable future.

Howard Chung (14:06.822)
and you're a great broker because of your patience and you certainly don't make anybody feel pressured or anything like that. And you have such a great disposition on how you work with your clients. And so we love partnering with you and we appreciate you coming. Thank you so much. I appreciate that Paul. Thank you. And thank you Howard too. Thank you for joining us today. We really appreciate you watching the podcast. If you want to get to know more about the community,

golf, real estate, opportunities, ADUs. Give Leslie or the team at John Scott Anacortes a call. They serve the entire community, including Skagit, including Wacom, and Island, and of course San Juan counties. We got an amazing group right there on the waterfront in Anacortes. Thanks again for joining us, and we'll talk to you again next time.