Episode 179: How The Iran War Is Moving Oil, Risk, And Your Portfolio

Headlines are loud, but your plan should be louder. We break down the Iran war’s fast‑moving developments, the jump in oil, and what all of it really means for stocks, bonds, and your day‑to‑day budget. Greg draws on decades in the markets—from the pits in Chicago through the tech bust, the Great Recession, the pandemic, and everything between—to separate signal from noise and show how disciplined investors navigate uncertainty.

First, we set the scene: coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes, retaliatory drone and missile activity, and a rapid shift in risk sentiment. Rather than fixating on every twist, we map the channels that matter: crude moving from the 60s toward 80, gasoline prices rising at the pump, and the way global, fungible oil flows transmit shocks even when direct Iranian exports are limited. We also put today into context with a quick tour of past crises, reminding ourselves how often markets wobble, reprice, and find a new equilibrium.

Then we turn to practical moves. For households, lock in near‑term fuel buys and revisit cash flow to cushion higher transportation costs. For portfolios, lean on diversification across U.S. and international equities, quality bonds, short‑duration Treasuries, and select real assets. We explain why direct exposure to Iran is minimal for most investors, why second‑order risks like shipping lanes and China’s sourcing matter more, and how the U.S.’s leading role in oil and natural gas production helps absorb external shocks. You’ll hear how to use rebalancing, liquidity reserves, and a clear rules‑based process to keep fear from driving decisions.

Markets rarely reward panic. They often reward preparation. If you want a grounded view on geopolitics, oil, inflation hedges, and risk management—without the noise—this conversation is your playbook for staying invested with purpose. Subscribe, share with a friend who needs calm in the chaos, and leave a review to tell us what money question you want answered next.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.

The opinions voiced in this podcast are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may suit you, consult the appropriate qualified professional before deciding.  

Transcript

Welcome And Show Overview

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Welcome to Money Matters with Greg, where we dive into the money conversations shaping your life. From investments to estate planning, insurance to taxes, we cover it all with a fresh perspective. Join Greg and his guest each week to get inspired and take control of your financial future. Let's get started. Securities and investment advisory services offered through LPL Financial Registered Investment Advisor, member PenRed IPC.

Today’s Focus: Iran And Markets

Greg’s Background And Market Crises

Perspective On Volatility And Resilience

Timeline Of Strikes And Regional Escalation

Investor Mindset And Planning

Oil Prices, Supply, And Budget Impact

U.S. Energy Position And Insulation

Market Reactions And Asset Moves

Portfolio Exposure To Iran And Next Steps

SPEAKER_01 0:57

If you follow us on our podcast and our YouTube channel, you know much of this. But if you're new to us, we're happy to have you, really excited to be able to talk today about the conflict and the war in Iran and how that's affected markets. I wanted to be able to get into that for everybody because it has been a very volatile ride here and wanted to make sure everybody uh we could talk about uh some things here to kind of give you some direction. That's what we do in this show. We talk about money. Uh again, money manager Greg on WVLP103.1 FM, where we are broadcast locally on Thursdays at one o'clock, and then as well on Saturdays as a replay on Saturdays as well. So um podcasts are also anywhere you pod, uh Spotify, Apple, YouTube, you name it, uh, we're there. And then also on our YouTube channel at Feral Wealth, you can find us there. You can email me anytime as well, Greg at FeralWealth. Uh, we'd love to hear from you and have any ideas, uh, any ideas you have or any thoughts you have. I'd love to be able to uh to to listen and also add uh maybe we could add some value to the uh to the rest of the listeners uh with some of your questions and some of the topics that we could talk about. We talk about money on this show, how we can make more money, how we can add more money to your lives, how we can save more money. Uh you name it, have a number of different guests on this show that uh would come on uh that I'm always flattered to have, and very, very lucky to have conversations uh as a fly on the wall. I feel like a lot of people would love to be able to listen in. And that's um what I try to bring to you on this show. We are into our 179th episode, which I can't believe, but uh it's been a long time going. This is uh our fifth year of doing this, and uh very excited to be able to add uh some value to you today and talk about some of the things uh that are going on uh in the markets. So we'll start with a little history. Uh I've had a long career of professional career of investing, also had a personal career of investing, uh starting out as a uh uh really as a as a six-year-old, uh, where my mom started asking us to start putting money away into three buckets of money, savings, um uh charity, and then investing. And so uh been buying stocks and been around stocks all my life, and uh the overall stock market and investments started from my professional year uh career in 1994 uh in the pits of Chicago, Chicago Board of Option Exchange, and I've traded through a lot of things in a 14 career career um that uh have been crazy. Uh quite honestly, there have been some things that um have been pretty loopy uh in my career. Uh ultimately started Faro Wealth, started a wealth management firm, got out of the trading business, sold my firm, um, and left the uh pits because the pits turned into electronics, and I sat behind a desk and uh wasn't gonna do that the rest of my life. So started the uh wealth management firm uh uh uh back in 2010 and um have been off and running ever since helping clients and adding value. Uh there's many uh I've got uh a number of different things as far as my story and where I came from and what I do and what I've done and whatnot on my on our website, uh as well as uh LinkedIn and and whatnot. Won't get into that today uh too much, but I do want to talk about just what I've been through as far as 1994, go all the way back to there. That was uh is a reminder as far as volatility in the market and craziness as far as crises and uh and uh tragedies as well. Um 1994 started uh with the uh Clinton administration coming in and uh badgering pharma. I was trading the Merck pit at the time, which is Merck and Company. Um it's obviously uh rivaled with Eli Lilly and all the different pharmas that you know, Pfizer and whatnot, and uh they uh were very much against big pharma. So pharma collapsed and went uh Merck literally went from 90 to uh to$18 a share. So that was a uh quite a crisis, especially starting out my trading career. Um, you know, you go into a number of different things that uh follow after that in 1997. Um you have the Asian financial crisis that uh the uh I traded through the devaluation of the peso at the time as well. They had the Russian uh back in 1998, you had the Russian debt default that was so crazy, uh, where the market dropped uh 12%. Uh the during the Asian financial crisis, the market dropped 19%. And then you had a Hawkish Fed Fed and the tech bubble, which was 99%. Um that was uh really a 49% from uh October, well really uh yeah, October 2000 to 2003. Um, you know, the market dropped 49%. Uh so I tried I traded the tech bubble and the tech bust. Uh and then also was a trader in the pits during 9-11, which was uh obviously an uh an epic, awful day. Um and the accounting scandals then uh fell in in July of 2002, uh all the way to 2008. You go into 2008, the financial crisis uh and the great recession was down over 56 percent. Uh then you go into the flash crash of May 10th, uh, and that was in 2010, uh, and the Euro debt crisis that went on, the market was down 18%. Uh the US debt downgrade, which is in October of uh 2011, that's 19%, down 19%. You had the China slowdown, which was in uh uh 2016, that was down 14%. Uh Volmageddon, if you remember that, that was uh uh that was 2018, that was down another 10%. Uh then you had the hawkish Fed as well, uh that's uh uh that dropped things in 2018, down another 19%. Uh and then of course we hit COVID. So um traded uh through you know multiple different uh crises uh uh and and wars uh or you know in certainly uh escalations and then COVID you know never traded through a pandemic. Uh none of us had, so we had that down 33 percent, and then high inflation rates uh were in March 2022 where we dropped 25 percent. Uh oh, by the way, recently just last year, you've got April of 2025 with tariffs, uh, and now we have a full-blown war. So um, wow. Uh it's you know, it's been a ride, and uh, you know, we are trading through a war as we speak, and that's really what I want to talk today about what um, you know, just how to maybe get a little perspective for sure of of what's going on out there, uh what's been in the past. You know, we've had these crises before and building a portfolio that can withstand these things and having a long-term uh time horizon, but also um being cognizant of the fact that um things do return to normalcy. Um and I just want to be able to talk about like, you know, it's not necessarily it's there at times it's bad, we're gonna get volatility for sure, but we've already seen sort of a uh a correction uh coming back, and it's not as bad as people certainly think. Um so with that being said, I kind of want to go into uh talking about the markets uh and exactly what is going on with Iran and how this is affecting our stock market and the world markets uh uh worldwide. So the show's Money Manager Greg. I'm Greg Farrell, CEO and president of Fairwealth. Again, we broadcast on 103.1 FM uh WVLP here locally at uh Thursday at 1 o'clock, so that'll be uh this week. Uh and then this will be updated, obviously, for next week. But as you've seen in the news, uh the U.S. and Israel have launched uh military strikes against Iran, uh, targeting its leadership, its uh military assets, and nuclear infrastructure uh across the board. Iran's supreme leader uh has been confirmed as dead. Um, and Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, basically, um, which I do believe they've made a very tactical mistake um in regards to that and the fact that they've attacked other Middle Eastern uh peaceful nations that were actually at the peace table uh or at the table to talk peace uh just recently. Um but those were launched and you're gonna see retaliations uh overall. Uh we'll see about all that. I'm not going into uh the the tactics of war and how this all looks as far as where we go from here. Uh that's not my job. My job is to try to figure out for you guys uh how to make some money and also how to save some money uh in regards to your investments. Um President Trump has stated that the goal of the operation, which is dubbed uh Operation Epic Fury, uh, is a regime change in Tehran uh with uh strikes uh expected to continue uh for weeks, uh, and a number of U.S. troop casualties uh have uh have been reported um as well. So um the situation is evolving very, very rapidly, uh, and that's why I wanted to make sure we had an updated podcast uh for this week to make sure you could uh to know that uh you know that the safety of the civilians in the region uh and our troops uh are key and our most important consideration for sure. Um without taking away from the severity of the events, uh investors will naturally have questions, and that's why I wanted to be able to make sure we talk about it, uh, about what this means for their portfolios, the markets, oil prices, uh you name it. So um I'll go back to President uh Eisenhower um during before before he was president with this quote, but he basically said once said that uh plans are worthless, but planning is everything. So applied to today, this lesson is uh that specific geopolit geopolitical events are completely unpredictable. And that's why I kind of uh mentioned my past and how many of these things I've been through. Um it's one, it means you're old, but two, it means you've been through a lot of stuff that you can talk to and you can help educate um uh a number of people uh to uh you know just add some calm to your life here if you can. But the fact that they occur uh uh the the fact that geopolitical events occur regularly is not uh predictable in any way. And um uh the process of structuring a portfolio and making financial uh uh plans is designed precisely to deal with all this uncertainty. Um with each event uh uh even though by with each event being very, very unique, uh financial markets really have m navigated countless wars, crises, regional conflicts, and including the U.S. operation of Venezuela that uh ultimately was this uh earlier this week year. Now, the key to every long-term investment investors is to separate geopolitical headlines from portfolio decisions, and what should investors keep in mind uh as in these events sort of unfold in the next few weeks, you know, watching the oil markets, knowing that look, I will say this you're gonna want to fill up your tank of gas sooner rather than later because oil has rallied. Uh for sure, it's gone from uh$60 a barrel to$80. Uh that has been uh because of the the war uh and the uncertainty. So, yes, uh gasoline will be going up as we speak. Um, so far it's already risen uh uh I think 20 cents a gallon nationwide. Um that is something that personally is going to affect your pocketbook and they're gonna affect your money and your dollars and cents today. So um oil was going down, uh it was literally down near fifty uh dollars a barrel, and now it's rallied to 80. So um with that will go your gasoline prices. So just be careful of that as far as your budget. Now, while the scale of the strikes that happened were significant, tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have always been escalating and certainly been escalating for some time. Um, this latest development follows the month-long U.S. military buildup in the region that's been going and building up to get ready. The negotiations over the Iran's nuclear program that failed to produce an agreement. And uh President Trump pledged to support Iranian uh protesters uh who challenged the region earlier this year, uh, all go into this equation. And to really understand how we can arrive at this moment, it kind of helps understand the broader timeline of events. So tensions between Iran and the West uh stretch back decades. Uh, I go back all the way to Jimmy Carter. Uh obviously, with the hostage situation uh that happened uh with the hostages that went on over for over two years. Um you have long-standing regimes uh that support Hezbollah and Hamas. Um while those have been really the center of the conflicts of the Middle East recently. Uh, you can go all the way back to uh a number of presidents and their past. I can go, I won't go into all of that has happened in the history between the U.S. uh and Iran. But in 2019, Iran launched drone strikes against Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. And that disrupted the global oil production, and that raised fears of a wider regional war in 2019. Hamas, October 23, uh 2023, attacked uh Israel uh uh and reignited the conflict in the region, uh, eventually drawing in Hezbollah and escalating tensions in with Iran. And then last summer, Israel conducted a 12-day military campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear and ballistic missiles in what was the most directed confrontation between the two countries in decades. Um earlier this year, Iranian protesters um challenged the regime with President Trump pledging U.S. support if possible. Um and uh negotiations. So then they went into negotiations about the uh nuclear program that all failed to produce an agreement in recent weeks, and uh significant U.S. buildup uh in the region has happened in the last two weeks, signaled this really broader operation for being planned, culminating in the current strikes that have happened. So the scope of these strikes, including the targeting of Iran's senior uh leadership, is uh broader than previous engagements for sure. This is obviously a complete regime change. And for investors, uh that's a really good thing. Um, this is uh, well, first of all, I will say for those that are concerned about their portfolios uh today, I'll just go into the bottom line on this and cut to the chase. Uh, I'm gonna talk about a couple more things in a minute. But in the bottom line is the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran represent an important geopolitical development for sure. Um however, uh history shows that investors really sort of maintain these diversified portfolios that they have and they have long-term financial goals. Really are best positioned to kind of navigate all these periods of uncertainty. But it is important to note that Iran plays a very minimal role in investment portfolios. Uh Iran has been under heavy sanctions for years, and its economy has been experiencing experience uh experiencing hyperinflation. Um Its currency uh has collapsed. It's been it's collapsed for years. So if you want to know why Bitcoin exists in this world and why someone might take a chance on Bitcoin, um, you know, be an Iranian living in Iran knowing that you you're not gonna get paid on something because uh inflation is at 2,000 percent. So might not might as well take a chance on getting paid in big Bitcoin, right? So there are very few investors with direct exposure to the country and any asset allocations uh there for sure. Um yeah, we're we're volatile. Yes, the markets moved, oil's moved up, yes. But does your portfolio really is it affected that much by anything in Iran specifically? Uh no, I mean it really isn't. Um there are some other things that are ancillary for sure, and we can talk about that. And if you have any questions on that, please email me, Greg at FerrellWealth.com. I'd love to hear from you. Um one quick station identification. Uh we're broadcasting on WVLP 103.1 FM here on Thursday at one o'clock in the afternoon, uh, March 5th. And uh we're thankful to have a relationship with WVLP. Always uh really enjoy the WVLP family. I highly recommend you check out uh WVLP.org for all the different shows that are available. Some some great uh great shows on this station. Uh you can also find that uh on the website um and uh stream from anywhere uh worldwide and uh be a part of this and catch us there. You can catch me also on podcast, uh, Apple, uh, Spotify, you name it. Um talking about oil, uh oil's already been uh rising in anticipation of these strikes. It kind of rallied from 60 all the way to 67. Um and then immediate reaction to the strikes has really been just a further jump uh to the low 70s for WTI and just over 80 for Brent Crude. Um and while Western countries uh do not directly import oil from Iran, the fact that the market is global and oil is a fun is fungible means that any disruption to supply can raise prices. Um this is also seeing issues uh with Asia uh because China imports a ton of oil from Iran uh is also a Venezuela, so you can kind of see the squeeze going on with China. We'll see what happens with that. Little perspective is needed as far as oil goes. Current oil repl uh prices remain well below the 2002 peak of nearly$128 per barrel when Russia invaded Ukraine. Um, and today's environment is quite different. Um, in 2018, the US uh became the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas, with uh current domestic production exceeding other major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. Now, while the US still relies on US global energy markets, the this level of production really helps us to insulate our domestic economy from supply disruptions. Um that doesn't mean it still doesn't hurt. Um, and you see what happens with uh oil going up, but with a favorable oil um and energy policy currently in this country, um we are uh quickly we were a net exporter of um of oil under Trump in his first uh term, Trump 2.0. Um we're not there yet, uh, but it's getting there. And LNG as well, um it's liquefied natural gas. Uh we are a major producer in that, and um uh and and we're working on uh getting that to be you know one of our biggest exports as well. So it's just really worth remembering that oil prices are hard to predict. And when Russia invaded Ukraine, many expected prices to just remain elevated forever, and that just didn't happen. Instead, uh prices Stabilized. They declined far sooner than projected. And the U.S. operation in Venezuela this past January led to a brief move in oil prices, but it had little longer long-term effect. The market, the overall market, um reacted initially uh with uh a pretty quiet, uh kind of a yawn type situation. Ho hum, uh very flat day the next day on that Monday after the strikes happened over the weekend. Um and then Tuesday we were down, uh we were down pretty big on two over 2% on some uh indices early. Uh oil was down as much as uh was up as much as 5%. Um and uh with Bitcoin and a number of other things were down. But today, uh as of Wednesday, uh the close of Wednesday here uh today, um we had a nice rally and it's uh looked like it uh has turned out uh pretty nice. Uh oil has come back in. Uh had a very volatile day. It was moving all over between uh 84 and 76 all throughout the day and closed right around 80. Um so and then the overall NASDAQ was up, uh all the all the all the different indices were up, uh, as well as uh uh all the uh currencies, Bitcoin and Etherim, you name it, were all up uh eight to ten percent um in places. So um markets figuring it out uh is really the most important thing. And you really just need to back to the bottom line, just know that we don't we don't we don't have a lot of exposure. We don't have no we have no exposure to Iran um and never really intend to. Now, as things change, and now with a new regime, there might be opportunity uh for investors to be able to find things, but that's a ways off for sure, and who knows what's gonna happen uh after all this uh finalizes. For now, it looks like um uh there is a regime change uh uh and it will happen sometime um because uh Supreme Leader's dead, and then most of the leadership around him um is dead as well. So we'll see what happens uh in Iran that's um above my pay grade. We'll see what happens overall. But just to kind of represent this whole geopolitical development that happened, I wanted to talk about, you know, history really shows that uh those who maintain a diversified portfolio in in multiple different asset classes, um, you know, for the long-term financial, for your long-term financial goals, you're gonna be best positioned to really navigate all these periods of uncertainty. So I hope that helps. Uh, that was my mission here today was try to bring some um some clarity uh for you as what's um you know the past of going all the way back to 1994, which I can't believe it's been that long. Um, and then uh bringing you to up to date today with uh with the war as uh uh as we speak in the in the markets as we speak today, here in 2026. So again, the show's Money Matters for Greg. I'm Greg Farrell, CEO and president of Ferrell Wealth, it's a wealth management firm uh in Valparaiso, Indiana, um, where we have the Midwestern charm of a wonderful little town uh that we uh call home. And um we manage money for clients uh in 24 states. We have an office in Tampa, uh, Florida as well. So if you need anything or have anything you want to reach out, please Greg at farewell.com. I'd love to hear from you. You can uh also DM me on any sort of uh social media or LinkedIn, Facebook, um, X, and Instagram. Um would love to have a follow as well if you want to follow us anytime for all this stuff that we're doing on the marketing side of things and the social media things. Um would love to have a follow and a like. Uh you can also follow us on our YouTube channel as well. So I hope that was a help. I hope I hope I updated everybody well enough to be able to get uh to get moving from any paralysis that you might have and look for opportunities because uh we've had we've had uh uh some opportunities for sure uh that uh I would highly recommend to you know sharpen your pencils and uh get after it. And if you've got any questions, uh email me, Greg at farewealth.com. And uh I hope you have a wonderful week and uh happy spring. Uh uh and uh here we go, March Madness. So very excited to have some basketball in our lives and some sport back in our lives as well. So uh thanks again uh and look forward to talking to everybody next week. See ya.

SPEAKER_00 26:51

Thanks for tuning in to Money Matters with Greg. We hope you gained some valuable insights today. Remember, your financial journey is personal, but you don't have to go it alone. If you enjoyed the show, be sure to subscribe and share. Until next time, here's the making your money work for you.