Episode 182: Seven Straight Up Days For Stocks With Two Red Flags

Seven up days in a row for stocks can make the world feel suddenly calmer but the market rarely gives a single, clean signal. I walk through what’s powering the recent S&P 500 rebound, from ceasefire negotiations to better than feared inflation data and early Q1 earnings strength from major banks and household names.

Then I slow it down and ask the question serious investors have to ask: are other asset classes confirming the rally? We look at why elevated oil prices and higher Treasury yields can contradict a bullish stock move, and what that tension can mean for interest rates, consumer spending, and the broader market outlook. I also share a simple way to filter “real news” that changes fundamentals from emotional noise that only drives whiplash.

Because the calendar matters too, I close with Tax Day thoughts and practical tax planning reminders, including why it pays to coordinate your financial advisor, CPA, and tax attorney if you want to minimize taxes legally and keep your plan aligned with your values. Subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review with the one market indicator you’re watching most right now.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.

The opinions voiced in this podcast are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may suit you, consult the appropriate qualified professional before deciding.  

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

Welcome to Money Matters with Greg, where we dive into the money conversations shaping your life. From investments to estate planning to insurance to taxes, we cover it all with a fresh perspective. Join Greg and his guests each week to get inspired and take control of your financial future. Let's get started. Securities and investment advisory services offered through LTL Financial Registered Investment Advisor, member Finn Redis IPC.

Tax Day And Recent Policy Notes

Stocks Rally On Peace Signals

Why Markets Lead The Economy

Oil And Yields Disagree With Stocks

What To Watch Next

Refund Surprises And Smarter Tax Planning

SPEAKER_01 0:43

Good afternoon. The show is Money Matters with Greg. I'm Greg Ferrell, CEO and president and owner of Faro Wealth. It's a wealth management firm here locally in Valparaiso, Indiana. We're broadcasting today on WVLP 103.1 FM here locally. And then also anywhere you pod. You can find us on Spotify, Apple, wherever you certainly pod. We'd love to have you. You can follow us on all of our socials at Money Matters with Greg. And then the wealth management firm is at Farowealth. We also started a wealth management firm that's catering just towards college athletes, and that's at that's Farowealth N I L. So check that out when you get a chance. We're actively looking at helping a number of different athletes out there try to add some financial literacy and try to help them out as much as we can. We certainly have an affinity for our college athletes. Having been one myself and knowing that I was stone quote broke in college, it's really, really nice to be able to help some people that actually have some money and uh being able to kind of manage it and have it for their lifetime uh after sports and after the game ends. Um we're gonna talk today. Uh this is episode number 181. Can't believe it, it's uh flown, but we're gonna try to uh add some things about the market. Uh I really feel like I need to be able to make sure everybody's up to date on what's been going on last week. We did a nice um episode on the Trump accounts. I hope you were able to use uh the form 4547 for your uh newly born child in 2025 or grandchild. Uh and then, of course, that's available in 26, 27, and 28 as well as this$3,000 that uh government's giving you, which is quite quite a gem. I had three kids. I would have loved three grand um over their lifetimes, plus the$250 of uh Michael Dell um and his estates um money that they're donated as well. So uh it's a wonderful opportunity for you out there, and I certainly hope you uh took advantage. Today is tax day. It is April 15th. Um so happy tax day. I hope you got your taxes in. If you didn't, you filed your extension and um you moved on as far as that goes, as far as getting the money in and whatever you need to do in regards to taxes. I certainly hope you have good counsel and you've been obviously going through any software, but then of course any accountants and making sure you're all set. Um wanted to talk to market today. Again, broadcasting here on WVLP 103.1 FM, uh always thankful to be a part of that family, and uh highly recommend you listen in uh when you can at TuneIn Radio if you just uh search 103.1. Uh you can listen uh anywhere uh around the world or WVLP.org on the website as well. Uh there's many great shows there. I highly recommend you try out some of the shows from blues to uh um to heavy metal to you name it jazz, uh some great talk shows. Um and always great to be a part of that family. So very thankful for that opportunity. And uh here we go. Want to talk about stocks. So wow, all right. We are officially up seven days in a row um since the ceasefire conversations and since the post-ceasefire rally continued. It's really uh um sort of being a lasting peace deal here um, you know, between the countries for now. Um it's really been seen sort of inflation data that came in was also lower uh than feared. And uh really the strong start, I've been talking about this uh in previous episodes. Uh quarter one uh Q1 earnings uh season was really added to this broad market uh tailwind behind uh stocks. S P approached a record of highs uh close just shy of a gain of 1.18% long yesterday, which is Tuesday, and they gapped higher on the open on Tuesday after Vice President J.D. Vance noted that a lot of progress, quote unquote, had been made in peace negotiations with Iran. Um, since they failed initial talks over the last weekend, so that was obviously volatile. Look, again, we're up seven days in a row, and we're certainly looking like we uh are starting to put uh things behind us in regards to uh the overall market. Um as far as the war goes, we'll see. But um this those comments uh from Vice President Vance certainly added uh to the geopolitical appearance that um we're getting things unwound. Uh and that is apparent in the fact that the SP 500 is back to where it started for the most part, uh from where uh the war began. Uh we've rallied back uh oils down another 7% yesterday, so that's really good. Uh, that did hold support at$88 to$90 a barrel. Uh so we'll see how that all goes in regards to that. But fundamentally, the ship traffic uh is being picked up through the strait, and uh the government's reaffirming that their intent to exclusively prevent uh ships that uh from navigating in and out of Iranian waters um and totally blocking the strait. Uh it's really kind of combined with this sort of right direction of global logistics. There's a number of ships that have been sent the empty to America and Venezuela. Um, over 112 ships that checked uh shipping traffic just the other day, uh, and it was amazing how much had changed in just four or five days, uh, how many oil tankers could now be seen through GPS um near South America and near uh Texas uh and on their way in and out of uh of uh uh of the Gulf. So uh amazing to see, quite honestly, as far as these developments uh really sort of been you know basically pushing things towards positivity. Um, and that's really good for the market. The market typically, I just had this conversation with our interns that we have. We have four interns currently, and we had a meeting yesterday. You know, the market's gonna dictate and show you where it's going, uh, where the economy is going, where things are going ahead of time. It's very forward thinking, and it will be six to eight months in advance ahead of you. Uh so you really want to be able to make sure that you're paying attention to these trends, as I always talk about, but also just the news, uh, and just pay attention to the real news and not just the um emotional news. Uh so developments like this, ceasefire talks, oil going down, um, tenure is looks like it wants to crack, but it's not started yet. Um we'll see about that. That's actually been a little bit of uh uh of a headwind. I'll I'll mention something about that later. But that psychological barrel that psychological um mark in oil barrels at$90 is really that sort of near-term resistance. You know, we'll kind of see what happens with that as far as um where it goes. I I think um gold, you know, caught uh a a bit alongside bonds yesterday. I think that was interesting to see because gold's obviously been off uh for a number of days, but uh that was really uh more so pretty pretty solid um overall as far as seeing what's happening with that. You had um uh in addition to some of these things with the back to the earnings, uh uh JP Morgan had further really solid results. Uh you had uh sizable earnings and revenues from uh Citigroup uh served to more than you know basically talk about their downbeat quarter results um outside of banking Johnson Johnson uh topped earnings, and the leadership really raised their forward guidance, which is really nice and very positive and showing that there is a health in the U.S. consumer, uh, which is solid. And you know, stocks really rallied um over the course of yesterday. They came in solid, uh, they were up, futures were up over the weekend, and uh, you know, we continue to push through here um that uh you know we'll see. I mean, we're dealing with on the Iran side, we're dealing with a country that um lies a lot and doesn't follow through. So uh they've had 47 years of lies and and awfulness behind them. So we'll see where this goes uh in regards to those conversations and those, you know, we have to trust that uh the talks will be done. And I think the S ⁇ P has fully round-tripped uh the entire uh decline um and closed above the closing level of February 27th, the day before the war started. So while we're really happy the stocks have rebounded, this furious 10-day rally has really not been confirmed by other asset classes uh that uh and I really am concerned still about m treasury yields and oil prices, that we just don't think that that that that we don't have confirmation there from those two asset classes that things are going to push through. Now, we get news of a ceasefire, uh you're gonna see oil drop ten dollars a barrel and and you're gonna see the 10-year drop um below four um ultimately, which is you know really positive for a number of things, including credit card debt, um uh mortgages, and and you know, they don't necessarily change it at overnight, but it certainly helps. So this sort of push kind of shows that the higher oil prices just aren't a big enough problem to constrict the consumer spending and really hurt economic growth. Uh Fed's gonna be looking past rising inflation metrics as really sort of a temporary cut. Uh later this year, you're gonna get a new new Fed chief here. Uh so May 15th is his last day. Uh thank goodness. Very happy about that. And um we find some about someone else new, whomever that is, uh, whether they get approved or not, uh, we'll see here in the future. But those are all trending moves towards a higher market and trending moves towards a healthy market, um, with the ability that now we have stability in the oil passages pretty much all over the world, as we are in a national exporter and we have the oil. So uh why not sell it? Um and then uh the threat of having a nuclear war break out in the Middle East or even in Europe um is terminated. So that is uh a very peaceful thing for the markets. Now uh the Middle East can repair itself and uh get back to business that was once was. Um people forget about the regime in 2010 and how open it was in Iran to have uh westernized uh uh Western society come in and invest. Uh there were Starbucks and Victoria's Secrets and a number of different uh stores and shops uh in and around um Iran. Uh and that all went away in 2013 when the new regime came in. So um these are things that history people are not talking about. And there is going to be investment in Iran that's gonna be immense and incredible um in the next you know two to five years, um maybe even earlier. We'll see. But just want to be able to make sure that uh you mentioned, so you know, yes, very positive on a lot of fronts, seeing a lot of positivity on a lot of fronts. Uh, you know, back to your disciplines and making sure that you have the disciplines um and you're ready, you've sharpened your pencil, you're ready to launch in regards to some of the stocks. There's still some stocks they haven't returned uh to the levels of February 27th or even higher in January. Um but on February 27th, the 10-year yield closed at 3.95. Now that's 30 basis points lower than yesterday's close of 4.25. So that's why I'm worried about the 10-year right now, because the 10-year is not telling you it's over yet. Uh the market is, uh, and the market's going to continue to do that. But the 10-year is not there yet. Um on February 27th, before all the started, uh, crude closed at 6702. That means that crude is 37% higher today than it was before the war. And on February 27th, the two-year treasury yield, which is the market's really proxy for expected Fed funds, closed at 3.38. And that's 37 basis points below the yesterday's close at 3.75. So, okay, simply put, so far the price of oil and treasury yields um are really telling you they're not confirming the very optimistic views of stocks and reflecting via this recent rally. Now, first the 300 basis point rise and the 10-year yield reflect some rising inflation concerns for sure, uh, because it's certain certainly not factoring in the acceleration of economic growth given higher oil prices and uh plunging consumer sentiment uh confidence that's fallen. But second, oil prices are not signaling any impending end of the conflict. If they were, they'd be$70 a barrel. They're off their highs for sure, but we're still talking about nearly a 40% rally in the last few weeks, a few six weeks. And if they were that confident, uh like I said, they'd be in the 70s or 80s for sure. And if we look at the 10-year treasury yield, it's still 40 basis points above per pre-war levels. You know, look, neither of these are any of these three are not perfect. And they're not automatically, does that automatically mean the stocks are wrong with their rallying and and whatnot? Because any, like I said, about any news, uh, all three of these would be fixed real quick. Uh they'll come right back to where they were uh February 27th, if not lower. So it's improved over the last 10 days. Well, it's improved over the last seven days as far as being up seven days in a row. That's really positive. Um, another thing is we've never really had three three April uh lows uh in a row uh for the month. So it's the last two years we've been down in April. This April we're currently down uh to unchanged. So we'll see what happens uh with that as far as uh you know confirming this stock rally. I really don't think it's enough to give investors pause, but it's something to watch, and that's why I want to be able to mention it on the show. Um, you know, watching oil prices, watching the 10 year 10 year, watching the two-year, uh, for that macro outlook that just hasn't improved as much as this rally implies. Um sort of, you know, I want to be make sure, make sure you're you're not vulnerable to an air pocket um along the way. But that being said, things look really good. Trying to be, you know, down the middle in the in the middle of the road here as far as giving you advice uh or helping you, you know, make a decision and where things are going. Um we're seeing a lot of positivity. Uh there are a couple things I think you need to watch, and that's why I mentioned what I mentioned. I hope that helps uh with the update on the market. Again, the show's Money Matters for Greg. I'm Greg Farrell, CEO and owner of Ferrell Wealth. It's a wealth management farm in Valparaiso, Indiana, helping clients in 25 states now. Uh we just got a new client in Idaho of all places, which uh really, really enjoy. Can't wait to go visit them, uh, stand in the stream and maybe uh do supply fishing when I'm out there uh because you all know I love fly fish. So um very excited to be able to maybe get out there um sometime this summer and uh stand in a river, and I'll let you know how that goes. Um the one thing I wanted to mention today, too, is I did mention it's tax day. Um I think people are gonna be surprised at how much of a tax refund they're gonna get based on um the um you know OB3, uh the one big beautiful bill. Um I think uh that has been very positive for a number of Americans, a number of um uh low-income to middle class um uh Americans that are gonna be a little surprised. So hopefully that's a help to them in their pocketbook, uh for sure. Um we will see uh how that goes overall as far as uh what we hear. I'll let you know. But uh so far the reports and as far as it from the Department of Treasury are uh very positive that uh the the bill is working and helping Americans get some of the money back uh that they normally would have sent to Washington. And I'm a big fan of not sending as much money as possible to Washington. Uh you know, look, all four paying taxes, understand paying taxes, but if there's a way to be able to make sure you're smart about it and you educate yourself and you can minimize those taxes in other ways and do other things that are uh much more aligned with your philosophies and your ideas and your investments, uh why wouldn't you do that rather than give the money to somebody else to be able to manage it uh somewhere else in regards to uh where those tax dollars go? Uh so if you don't like that and you want to be able to minimize that and maybe help a local charity out, here's local, uh there are ways to be able to minimize your taxes. I'm not an accountant, don't play one on TV and never will, but um I highly recommend you talk to your tax attorneys, tax accountants, uh, and then your attorneys as well, as well as your financial advisors and your entire team to talk about how you can uh minimize your taxes overall. I think it's super appropriate to be able to bring this up today here on April 15, 2026, as we go uh forward to broadcast uh the show. Uh WVLP103.1 FM on Thursdays at 1 o'clock, then replayed again on Saturdays. Uh hope you can tune in on TuneIn Radio and also WVLP.org. Uh and then of course, anywhere you spod um is uh our YouTube channel as well, uh any of our socials at Feral Wealth and Apple, Spotify, you name it, um will be out there uh soon enough. In the meantime, um, you know, it's it's a painful day uh from for many. Uh April 15th, it's not the most positive day having to write checks um out there, but uh I hope you were able to file. I hope you're able to get your stuff done and get your uh tax returns in and uh ultimately uh maybe get a refund, you know, who knows? So uh want to thank you for being on uh listening in on the show today. Uh we'll be uh broadcasting next week as well. And uh want to uh thank everybody out there and we'll catch you next week. See ya.

SPEAKER_00 20:54

Thanks for tuning into Money Matters with Greg. We hope you've gained some valuable insights today. Remember, your financial journey is personal, but you don't have to go it alone. If you enjoyed the show, be sure to subscribe and share. Until next time, here's to making your money work for you. Securities and investment advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, member FINRA SIPC.