Worst forecasting joke ever
Introduction to Paul Goodwin
Introduction to scenario analysis
Disrputing stratgic inertia
Making scenario analysis useful
The problem of scenario bias
Avoiding denial of unpleasant scenarios
Can scenario analysis make us complacent?
How can we make 'Devil's Advocates' work?
When do groups outperfom individuals?
An introduction to the Delphi Technique
Challenges in group decision-making
The role of models and where they add value
When should we 'tweak' models?
Communicating forecasts to non-experts - challenges + solutions
Incentive problems in forecasting
Explainability and belief
Subject matter expertise vs. forecasting skill
How do we help non-professional decison-makers make better choices?
Paul's 5 key suggestions for better forecasts