Rates, Confidence, And The 2026 Housing Outlook

Mortgage headlines are loud, but the real story is quieter: confidence. We dig into why builder confidence is rising while buyer confidence stalls, how the Fed’s long “sugar high” of quantitative easing set us up for today’s rates, and what a softer jobs market—amplified by AI hiring freezes—means for mortgages over the next 6 to 12 months. No fluff, just a grounded look at the forces moving your payment and your plan.

Steve Reed joins us to unpack the data behind rate direction, explain why 3 percent mortgages aren’t coming back, and outline a realistic path from the mid-sixes toward the mid-fives if inflation keeps cooling. We talk through first-time buyer pain points—student loans, income thresholds, PMI—and the practical levers that still work: zero-down USDA where eligible, state assistance, smarter down payments to avoid PMI, and credit optimization that moves the needle. The message isn’t “buy now at all costs.” It’s build a strategy that fits your rent, your reserves, and your timeline, then move with confidence.

We also examine the government shutdown’s ripple effects on lending. In flood zones, stalled federal insurance snarls closings; elsewhere, FHA, VA, and USDA pipelines can slow even as well-capitalized lenders keep funding. The broader risk is timing and trust. In markets like Northeast Tennessee where inventory is tight and in-migration is strong, prices are unlikely to roll over even if rates ease—so waiting for both cheaper money and cheaper homes may be a myth. Looking to 2026, we see cautious optimism: steadier rates, more inventory, and better affordability at the margins.

If you want a mortgage plan, not a guess, we’re here to help. Subscribe, share this with someone on the fence, and leave a review telling us your biggest barrier to buying right now.

To help you to navigate the home buying and mortgage process, Jonathan & Steve are currently licensed in Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia, contact us today at 423-491-5405 or visit www.jonathanandsteve.com.

Chapters

• 0:00 Welcome And Local Market Framing
• 1:01 Confidence Check: Builders Vs Buyers
• 4:56 Will Rates Ever Be 3% Again
• 8:09 First-Time Buyers And Affordability Reality
• 12:18 Strategy Over “Push Button, Get Loan”
• 15:58 Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed’s Hangover
• 19:47 AI, Hiring Freezes, And Rate Direction
• 21:49 How Many Cuts And How Low Could Rates Go
• 24:58 Buy Now Or Wait: It Depends
• 28:19 Government Shutdown: What’s Breaking And Where

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:00

This is Benchmark Happening. Brought to you by Jonathan and Steve from Benchmark Home Loan. Northeast Tennessee. Johnson City, Kingsport, Bristol, the Tri-City, one of the most beautiful places in the country to live. Tons of great things to do and awesome local businesses. And on this show, you'll find out why people are dying to move to Northeast Tennessee. And on the way, we'll have discussions about mortgages and we'll interview people in the real estate industry. It's what we do. This is Benchmark Happenings, brought to you by Benchmark Home Loans. And now your host, Christine Reed.

SPEAKER_01: 0:44

Welcome back, everyone, to another episode of Benchmark Happenings. And today I'm excited to have our um star of the show is Steve Reed. So welcome, Steve.

SPEAKER_02: 0:59

Thanks for having me again. I appreciate it.

SPEAKER_01: 1:01

Well, I'm so thankful because I think that just from our conversation, we really needed to have a podcast to talk about interest rates in the mortgage industry right now and also the looming government shutdown.

SPEAKER_02: 1:20

Yes, it it's looming longer than we want it to loom. Unfortunately. Normally the when you see these government shutdowns, they're a day or two and both sides kind of come together and because everybody's got, you know, angry people on both sides that have different self-interest. And uh so it seems they're digging their heels in a little bit here. So yeah, I'm glad you brought the topic up because we really need to explore how it's gonna affect, you know, our industry and other industries and just life in general, I guess.

SPEAKER_01: 1:54

Absolutely. And I know a lot of the housing market rises and falls on confidence, both from buyers and builders. So, Steve, where do we where are we on these key indicators?

SPEAKER_02: 2:09

Well, confidence is really, I mean, it's it's kind of hard to measure, but we do try to measure it as a sector. Um, you know, there's there's numbers that come out and they rank confidence like, hey, it's 37%, it's 50%, whatever, you know, whatever. What's that mean to be 50% confident? But I guess it makes more sense, pardon me, when you rank it against other reports, like, okay, well, we were 50% confident last month and we're only 37% this month. So you can see at least if it goes up or down. So it's not really that much of a tangible thing, although it is a real thing. Um so that's a great question. And you know, one of the reports I was listening to yesterday was talking about builder confidence and you know what happens with you know with builders, they've they've got pretty good memories of 2007 and eight when the market really went down.

SPEAKER_01: 3:06

That was a painful time.

SPEAKER_02: 3:07

Painful for builders, a lot of them went under, and so you know, the ones that have made it back, they don't forget about that. And also, you know, just uh the volatility of the of the market that we're in now. So with the builders, it's getting a little bit better. I think I threw out that 37% number. I think that's what it was a few months ago. And then uh yesterday's numbers come out a little bit better. I think they were closer to 49, 48, 49 percent. So it's gotten a little bit better, which means, you know, builders are, you know, they're feeling better about putting up spec homes and that kind of thing. They're not afraid as much that they're gonna just sit on the market. So that definitely helps with supply. And that's kind of you know, we got into a big problem with supply back after 08 and 09 because we lost a lot of builders. The one that was the the ones that were left were very skittish to throw a bunch of houses, you know, come out of the ground with a bunch of houses.

SPEAKER_01: 4:09

So we were short houses.

SPEAKER_02: 4:11

I mean, we were short for a long time, which drove up prices, right? Um, so the builders are coming back a little bit. The other the other side of that is you have buyer confidence, you know, where's that at? And uh that's that's still struggling. I mean, people I talk to them every day, just I'm out in the real world here, and I have people calling in saying, you know, houses are too expensive, I'm afraid to buy, I can't afford to buy. Um, and I don't have the number on the buyer confidence right now with me, but it's I can just tell you from being on the ground that it's not great. You know, it's not great because people just feel like, well, maybe rates will go down, prices will go down. Um, but but we'll see. But at least buyer confidence has or builder confidence, excuse me, has come back some.

SPEAKER_01: 5:01

Well, and that that's a positive. I think a lot of buyers, Steve, uh and and when I'm talking to people as well, it's always, do you think rates are gonna come down? I mean, r really I don't think, and you can speak to this, I don't think we'll ever see those two and a quarter, two and a half percent, three percent rates.

SPEAKER_02: 5:24

Never, never in our lifetime, I don't think, you know, just barring something unforeseen. But if you just look at the metrics uh with the interest rate market um and and just look at numbers and more scientific and that kind of thing, rates will never be that low again. Um but that's again barring something, some kind of World War III or something like I mean, you know, something we don't see coming, which is very possible, but uh I really from what we study and we hear from the economists, that's that's who we study. Um we don't see that ever happening again, but you know, hey, it would be nice to to be lower than we are. Yeah that would be good.

SPEAKER_01: 6:08

Yeah. So what are you seeing specifically in behavior from the first-time home buyers in this market? I know that's been a big concern, first-time homebuyers. Um, so what type what are you seeing in that behavior, Steve?

SPEAKER_02: 6:26

Well, you know, I touched on that a little bit because they're not confident. They're not, you know, the first-time homebuyers in particular are not that confident in buying a house right now. They're they're so expensive, the rates are higher. Uh a lot of them are saddled with a lot of student loan debt. So that's that's an issue. Um so so that's tough. Um that was probably about 50% of our business, uh, if you will, uh four or five years ago. And for the last 20 years it has been. Um we just if we depended on first-time homebuyers right now, we wouldn't be in business because you know, right now we have to depend on move up buyers or you know, that kind of thing. Maybe people buying second homes or or whatever the case is, but first-time homebuyers have been pretty much locked out of this market due to affordability. Now, I'd love to have those conversations with first-time homebuyers and say, hey, I know it seems like a daunting task to buy right now, and it is, and I'm not, you know, diminishing that fact, but there's ways to go about it, and there's there's ways it can be done. We have a lot of different programs out there for them, uh, different ways to get them in a house. But, you know, think about it. When rates were two and a half percent, three percent, I mean, you could fog a mirror and buy a house. You didn't even have to have a great job, you know, the income didn't have to be that much. And there's also a study out there that shows, you know, how much your income need median income needs to be uh or income needs to be to buy a median priced house. And it used to be around here, you know, 40,000, 45,000. Now it's about 70,000, 75. So, you know, have the uh incomes went up double around here? I don't think so. But the requirements have gone up, you know, you gotta make more because of the rates and the prices.

SPEAKER_01: 8:26

And I can speak to that because when I was in the Washington County 101 class, it was very interesting, highly recommend it. When we were at the sheriff's office, uh Sheriff Keith Secton Sexton was talking about the salary, just the average salary for officers, and I was shocked. And he said now they've got them up to about 55,000. So see, that still doesn't hit that number you talked about of 70.

SPEAKER_02: 8:54

No. So you really have to have a dual income family, right? Dual income. Um or uh dual income, either meaning the wife has to work or the husband's got to have two jobs, or somebody's gotta make 70,000, 75,000, it seems like, to buy a house. Now, are there people making less than that buying houses? Absolutely. I mean, we've got THDA loans, we've got some lower income type loans uh that can work in some cases. Um, but we're just talking about the median kind of buyer here. We're talking about the average price house. So uh I just I don't want folks to go away thinking, oh, I don't make 70, so I'm throwing in a towel, because there's ways to do it, but we're just talking about the biggest segment of the population here that are having you know some affordability issues buying a house, and that's why, you know, push button get loan, like through some of these competitors, is not a real um stellar plan these days. You need a mortgage consultant like we are to be able to come in and sit down and have real conversations. It's not AI, it's not push button get loan, it is strategizing, it is getting good information, getting treated like you should be treated, uh transparent information uh that deals with certainty. And if you do this, we can help you do this. And uh so it's almost uh to me when somebody calls in, well, your rate's a quarter percent higher, an eighth percent higher if it is. A lot of times we're the best rate. But you know, it's almost laughable because we bring so much more to the table than you know, a push button get loan. Uh, we don't want customers to buy a home and be uninformed. We want educated customers. Educated people are our best customers, and I don't mean higher education like you've got a master's degree. I mean let us educate you and come in and knowledge is power. Then you buy confidently. I don't know if you've ever bought anything that you're just not sure about, and maybe I shouldn't have done that. And that's not a good feeling. I want clients that are high-fiving after closing, like, oh man, this was a good move. I wanted to do this and I knew exactly what I was getting into, and it was transparent, it was a certain, you know, there was certainty to it, and it should be really a good experience. But I bet you if you did a poll, I bet three out of four times it's not a good experience just because of the way our industry operates, and we just refuse to operate that way.

SPEAKER_01: 11:34

And yeah, and I'm I'm glad you brought that up, Steve, because it really goes back to call benchmark, home loans, calls call you, call Jonathan, get you guys can call Lauren if you're in Knoxville. I mean, you guys will do the hand holding and really inform the client, uh, the family really in what they need to do. If they will let us love that.

SPEAKER_02: 11:59

If they can get off of what you rate, what you know, and all that's important, and we go through all that. But you know, the I would love a question sometimes, and I've never had it. Hey, what's gonna be, what's your strategy? You know, where where are we headed here? So um, you know, that that's just the kind of clients we're looking for that are I guess what you'd look for in an employee or a partner or whatever. Hey, who's coachable? Who you know, who wants to learn? And so we love to educate clients and uh we want them. I've gotten to the end of the road with a lot of clients that we've been very successful on the journey. And uh I look at them and I'm like, well, you could about be a loan officer now. You about know as much as I do, maybe more. And and because they they were like sponges and they wanted to learn and they didn't come in thinking they they knew everything, you know. Um because I've done this 40 years, I've seen a thing or two. Uh so you know, I'm not trying to say I'm the smartest person in the room, but I've seen so many scenarios and situations and so many missteps. I want to keep our clients from making those mistakes, which are costly.

SPEAKER_01: 13:10

It's because you care and you know, you're building that legacy. We've talked about this. You you do a loan for someone, then you eventually they send their children, and even now grandchildren, and you know, second-time home buyers that were someone's children, and that's so important, but really it it goes back to the key to success in life. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

SPEAKER_03: 13:34

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01: 13:35

And that's all about putting a strategy in place. No matter what you're doing, buying a home, working the market and sales, and and the line of work that I do, it's all about what what's your strategy?

SPEAKER_02: 13:47

Yeah. Um and I'm at the I'm at the point in my career. I can't I really care about just one or two things. That's relationships and making sure that I help you if you're a client. So I care about a relationship, I care about helping you. I don't need to do your loan to pay my electric bill. I've I've saved my money well. So I, you know, hey, I appreciate the business and we can all use the income, but we're not, you know, we're not desperate. We're we're here to help you, and we're truly doing it for the right reasons.

SPEAKER_01: 14:18

I love that. I love that. So I think we've talked about this a little bit, but I wanted to dive into it because it's about inflation. So how does inflation and the jobs market impact interest rates, Steve?

SPEAKER_02: 14:31

Yeah, that's a timely question because you know the feds uh the when I say the feds, the Federal Reserve Bank, they're kind of to the point now. They're realizing that back when, you know, we were getting our little sugar high from these low rates.

SPEAKER_01: 14:47

Uh because that's what is that the mortgage bankers prayer, God give me another refi boom and I'll save my money better.

SPEAKER_02: 14:54

Promise to save my money better. Yeah. Yeah. Well, so we were all on the we were all on that sugar high, right? So we were loving it. Business was great, three, four times what it is now. And but the feds have they've really Scott Besson, who's um he's the treasury secretary, but um Jerome Powell, of course, is over the Fed. But Scott Bessant's come out and said the their that candy high lasted too long. They called it QE, quantitative easing. So the feds would jump in, and if you can imagine you've got 10 houses for sale and you're gonna auction them off, but you have no buy, you you have three buyers at the auction, right? So there's not a lot of competition. Uh your houses are not gonna sell for that much, right? Well, it's kind of the same way with mortgage bonds. You know, we got in that period where, you know, the investors didn't have that much of an appetite for for mortgage bonds. So what does the Fed do? They're they got unlimited pockets, right? Because they got all our taxpayer money. They jump in and they say, we're gonna do quantitative easing or QE, we're gonna buy all these bonds, and so the bonds are gonna be selling great because we're gonna buy them. That's gonna create competition. Uh, we're gonna be at that auction, we're gonna be buying one of your, you know, all ten of your houses, or maybe nine of them. So we're gonna prop up the market, right? Well, that's what they did during COVID, right? And after. Well, they did it for too long. Okay, so the sugar high lasted too long, rates got to an unusually abnormally low point, and the feds just kept on and on and on and on. And even us in the industry were like, Well, this ain't good. This is gonna be one heck of a hangover, right?

SPEAKER_01: 16:39

Yes, I remember you saying that many times.

SPEAKER_02: 16:42

Yeah. So, I mean, while I was liking it, I mean, you know, just like you know, if you're out at the bar late at night and you're having a good time about two or three a.m., right?

SPEAKER_01: 16:52

People keep buying free drinks.

SPEAKER_02: 16:53

Yeah, it's all good. And you know in the back of your mind, oh, this this ain't gonna be good, but boy, it sure is fun. Uh, you know, and then you wake up the next morning and you're like, oh heck, what did we do? Well, that's kind of what the Fed had done, and even Scott Bessant's come out and said it just this week, you know. So that lasted too long. And so now, you know, we're trying to make corrections um or have been for the last three years since 2022 to get off of that hangover, you know. So now we're kind of overcorrecting almost, right? So rates should really be lower. But to answer your question with jobs and inflation, the Fed, you know, they're so nervous about inflation. It's about at a target point, it's maybe a little bit high, but and the jobs are, you know, even though the Fed say they're the same right now as they were in September, they're not, the market keeps softening for jobs. And we could talk about a myriad of reasons for that, but one of the things is AI. I mean, just banks come out today. I was just reading a headline. JP Morgan Chase has put a freeze. They've told their bank managers to keep the headcount where it's at, don't hire people, don't, and it's all because of AI. Goldman Sachs came out and said essentially the same thing. Amazon and Microsoft have told their employees and their managers to brace for not adding people. Um, so and it's all due to AI. So if the jobs, you know, stay soft, and we lost 36 or 37,000 jobs on the last jobs report, which is a soft report. We're not adding jobs. So if that stays like it is, that's really gonna impact rates. Uh it's gonna be for lower rates. Now, if we get some strong job report out of left field or something, which I don't see happening, that could hurt rates.

SPEAKER_01: 18:52

Interesting.

SPEAKER_02: 18:53

But right now, it looks like it's gonna be soft, which is gonna be, you know, positive for rates.

SPEAKER_01: 19:00

So when you talk about AI, are you are you just talking about AI replacing a lot of the jobs?

SPEAKER_02: 19:05

Yes. Yes. Okay, be able to do more with less uh headcount, you know. And uh so we're gonna s seriously, to me, see the impacts of that. But it's just timely that you'd even ask that question because like I say, I just read that article just an hour ago talking about the banks putting freezes and that's you know, specific to my industry, but that's it's gotta be across other industries too. It's not just the banking sector.

SPEAKER_01: 19:34

Right, right. Yeah. And so you know, and I think you've touched on this too, but the rate cuts coming from the Federal Reserve over the next six to twelve months. Well, so with all that being said, Steve, is do you see any rate cuts?

SPEAKER_02: 19:50

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. I think we could see four or five rate cuts in the next 12 months. And when they when they do the rate cuts, they do them in increments of a quarter. So they could come out and say, you know, hey, we're gonna do 25 basis points or a quarter rate cut, or we're gonna do 50 basis points or a half rate cut. Um so, but I think we're gonna see at least four or five going. Now we got two more Fed meetings this year. I think one's on October 29th, the other one's sometimes in December, maybe the 10th or 12th. I can't remember. Don't quote me on that. But we've got two more this year, and we may see cuts at both of those, but it's all gonna hinge on how the feds are feeling about inflation, how they feel about the jobs report. And, you know, we could we can get some numbers out of left field, and you know, oh, okay, we added 100,000 jobs last month, but they may come back a month later and say, oh, we got to correct that report. So you could see some seesawing of rates, uh, but overall, um, they've there they will trend down uh going into next year. Now, how much will they trend down is you know anybody's guess, but I think on the best case scenario, so if you averaged them right now, if you got a decent credit score and everything, you're probably about mid-sixes. You know, we may end up this time next year in the mid-fives if we're lucky, which is a pretty good rate, you know.

SPEAKER_03: 21:18

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 21:18

Historically, the rates, you know, on a more 30-year mortgage is about where we're at now. So uh if we got in the mid-fives, hey, we're lower than average. Um, is that a huge needle mover? For me, no. I mean, you know, a percent, but for a lot of people it's a psychological thing. And back to that buyer confidence, right? It seems to be psychological when rates are under six percent, our phones ring more. You know, people are like, okay, let's let's go buy a house. And it does make it. I mean, you know, if you're financing a you know, a$300,000 house, 1%'s gonna make, you know, maybe$100 a month difference, you know, or whatever, maybe a little bit more. I should have done that calculation before we got into this podcast. But anyway, uh is$100, should you not buy a house or not with that? I don't know. But um, it's not gonna be earth-shattering where the rates are gonna go, and again, not in the threes, but with luck in the fives, in the mid-fives, and I think at worst case scenario, we're gonna be in the high fives.

SPEAKER_01: 22:22

So now the million dollar question is now a good time to buy, or should buyers wait for lower rates?

SPEAKER_02: 22:28

Oh, you had to ask me that, right?

SPEAKER_01: 22:30

Um, I just feel like people just put off and put off and they're waiting for the rates to drop. So is now a good time to buy?

SPEAKER_02: 22:38

Yeah, the short answer, yes. Um, it is a good time to buy.

SPEAKER_01: 22:42

Why is that?

SPEAKER_02: 22:43

And because houses are not going to get any cheaper around here. Now, if you live in Florida, huh, you know, uh Miami's market's got 9.7 months of inventory. So yeah, maybe wait until rates drop a little bit and home prices go down a little bit. But uh around here in the states we operate, I would say I would have to qualify that. If you're in a really good, you're gonna be shocked by this answer, but if you're in a really good rental situation right now, like I have people come and say, well, my rent's$500 a month, but I just want to own my own house. I'm like, well, where you live? Well, I'm in my grandma's three-bedroom, two-bath house, and I'm like, I'm pretty sure I'd stay there, you know, and save up money. Because what a lot of people don't realize is if you can pay more down, you know, where you can sometimes avoid PMI insurance, which can add$100 to$200 a month onto your payment. Uh you can get a little bit better rate if you pay more down, it you can make it more affordable. So in some cases, if you're in a decent rental situation, you know, save up for a little bit and prepare to buy, right? Now, if you're out there one of those, which a lot of people are, and you're paying a couple thousand dollars, you know, two thousand twenty two hundred a month for rent or eighteen hundred a month, and you can even get into like one of our zero-down USDA programs that's you know, and you might could do it for sixteen, seventeen hundred a month, yeah, I would buy. Now, if you're somebody that's just looking to buy investment property to rent, uh I don't know, I don't think I'd buy right now. You know, if I didn't have to have a house. Um, but uh a second home, eh, if you got plenty of money, deep pockets. Most people buying second homes are you know not worried about paying their utilities, you know, they're they got a little bit more savings, that's probably a good time to buy. It's probably not gonna go down. But uh so it really depends on that's not a short answer, even though, you know, it just really depends on your situation. And that's the kind of conversation we like to have. And that's our part of our strategy.

SPEAKER_01: 24:53

Yeah, and it depends on the type of house you're looking for, what type of market, neighborhood. And here in Washington County, I mean, people continue to move in daily. I mean, we are sure definitely um population is growing here. So the elephant in the room for many in business right now is the government shutdown. So how many days are we into this shutdown?

SPEAKER_02: 25:20

Oh goodness. Uh a couple days ago we were in it 14 days. I think we're on day 17. So, like I mentioned before, it's not a you know, a day or two and then we're back. So, so yeah, we're about 17 days into this, so it's dragging on, you know, really more than we thought.

SPEAKER_01: 25:37

So, how's this affecting um specifically affecting the mortgage industry?

SPEAKER_02: 25:42

Yeah, so uh it depends on what state you're in. You know, Florida, you and I talked about this a little bit the other day, you know, the government flood insurance program program, FEMA, uh, they can't write policies. So they can't close loans that need flood insurance uh unless they're buying it through a private, you know, privately, which is more expensive a lot of times. So uh so that's really affecting all types of loans down there. Um I haven't specifically spoke to anybody in that market, but I've read articles and it sounds like a nightmare. I would like to, you know, talk to somebody on the ground there. Uh for us here, you know, Tennessee and the surrounding states, you know, we have uh USDA loans, you know, that you have to do, and you know, those can get a little tricky because they're operating with less of a staff, um, you know, FHA to get those loans insured. Um fortunately, we're still closing all those types of loans, VA loans, because we can, as a mortgage banker, we can close those and still fund them and wait to get them insured by when I say insured, that not the house insured, but the loan. So it hasn't affected us too much yet, but the longer it drags on, it's not good for for anybody. And uh not just the mortgage industry, you know. You got the air traffic controllers, I think their last paycheck was yesterday, and they only got 70% of their pay. So, how would you like to go to work and just get 70% of your pay? Well, what scares me about that, and I know this was not the question, but I just want to kind of bleed over into another industry here, but like for the air traffic controllers, I mean they could just walk out, right? Because they're not getting paid after yesterday. The way I understand it. We're coming up on the holiday season, right? Americans we like to travel. We do, right?

SPEAKER_03: 27:42

We do.

SPEAKER_02: 27:42

And so that could be like the bombshell of the whole shutdown, because you know, whether you're on the left or you're on the right, you're gonna be mad at your, you know, politician if they don't get this thing open because when Americans can't travel, they would probably get a little bit testy, especially this time of the year. You know? So I see the government shutdown coming to an end within the next few weeks just because of that.

SPEAKER_01: 28:13

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 28:14

That one simple reason. So uh and hopefully it don't do too much damage to us in the mortgage industry before that happens. And I just pray for the people and you know, our mortgage friends in Florida and people buying houses down there that you know it comes to an end quick.

SPEAKER_01: 28:29

Absolutely. So what's your outlook um overall for the housing market for 2026? Because it's almost I mean, 2025 is coming to a close and we're upon 2026. So what is that outlook, Steve?

SPEAKER_02: 28:43

Yeah, I I'm a little bit more optimistic for 2026 than I was uh in 2024, thinking about 25. So um so yeah, I'm I'm more positive for but but it's really for reasons that are not emotional. It's really for more metrics and studying the market and looking at um, you know, the the jobs thing is gonna drive rates, inflation, like we said, and that's gonna all be um, you know, that can affect in a negative way too. I mean, you know, if job markets down, nobody can buy or people that don't have jobs can't buy houses, obviously, but it does help rates and it helps affordability. And so I see affordability, that index getting better in 26, you know, get those rates in the mid-fives. Uh, I think we're gonna have more inventory on houses, so we're not gonna see such price jumps. I don't think we're gonna see any declines around here. Um, so I do I'm cautiously optimistic for 26. I think we're gonna be um I think we're gonna be looking a little bit better, a little bit the I think the market's gonna get its footing in 26, and I sure hope so because I feel like I've been in a heavyweight fight for the last Two years in this industry, and uh we're just looking for uh brighter days ahead, and I think we will have them, and uh, and it's still a great time to buy. It's it's you know, we want to have those conversations. We want to be honest with people, and a lot of people, believe it or not, I tell them, don't buy a house right now, you're not ready. You know, you're gonna be better off to wait. Now, a lot of people I I say, no, you should have bought one last year. You know, it's like the old saying, when's the best time to plant a tree? You know, well, 20 years ago was the best time, the second best time's today.

SPEAKER_01: 30:33

Today. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 30:35

So that's kind of where I'm at with the with the outlook.

SPEAKER_01: 30:38

Yeah. Well, thank you, Steve, for that update and for being on today and just giving us that just a more of a positive outlook for 2026 for more the mortgage industry.

SPEAKER_02: 30:50

Absolutely. Maybe you'll invite me back. Maybe we can even get Jonathan back here in the future podcast.

SPEAKER_01: 30:56

Yes, that'll be fun. Thanks, Steve.

SPEAKER_00: 31:01

This has been Benchmark Happenings, brought to you by Jonathan Tipton and Steve Reed from Benchmark Home Loans. Jonathan and Steve are residential mortgage lenders. They do home loans in Northeast Tennessee, and they're not only licensed in Tennessee.