Energy Crue
Welcome to 'Energy Crüe', the podcast that dives deep into the heart of industry innovation, entrepreneurship, and personal growth. I'm your host, JP Warren, and each episode, we embark on a journey to uncover the passions and motivations that fuel industry leaders as well as industry trends. We're not just talking business here; we're exploring the personal drives, the triumphs, and the challenges that shape today's pioneers.
Energy Crue
From the Table: Challenges in Forecasting a Development Program in Volatile Activity Environments
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We pull back the curtain on a closed-door operator roundtable to show why oil and gas forecasting keeps breaking when the field fights the model. We track how water, power costs, private equity demands, service chain whiplash, and methane rules reshape what “good planning” even means.
• why we started sharing curated operator roundtables through the podcast
• how parent-child well interference can turn forecasts upside down
• why unexpected water forces heavy pumping and bigger power needs
• how no on-site gas can push crews into diesel generation at extreme cost
• why AFEs balloon when the physical reality hits the dirt
• the gap between private equity return targets and operational outcomes
• how standardized designs can create hidden well integrity risk
• why service companies get crushed by sudden schedule cuts
• what agility looks like when fleets must relocate fast
• how new methane and clean air rules hit small operators hardest
• the denominator effect that makes the same leak look worse for independents
• the shift from growth at all costs to ruthless capital efficiency
• why leaders must connect geology, finance, logistics, and policy
I'd love to kind of hear your comments and feedback. If you're enjoying this, please share with those around you to kind of spread the knowledge, spread the word of what's happening inside the industry and just the challenges that are here and how we're navigating for it.
Welcome to Energy Crew Podcast. I'm your host, JP Warren. Thank you for tuning in today, and I'm excited. This is kind of a new path we're going on Energy Crew. So, for those that don't know, another thing that I do, I host these operator, kind of these exclusive operator curated roundtable events where we bring in majority of operators to the table, probably about 15 to 16 operators to the table, and we dive into these roundtable conversations with select service providers, kind of what challenges are on the operator's mind, how we're navigating the industry forward, and things like that. We just covered one last week with extended laterals. And this week, we're taking a look back at a roundtable that occurred back in 2024, where Garrett Jeffrey, who was over at Murchison, now at DG Petro, was kind of uh in this uh in this phase in his career where he's trying to plan stuff in the industry. But how do you plan stuff? How do you navigate planning and forecasting in a volatile market? Well, that's the conversation we had around the table. We dive into capital, regulation, uh just efficiencies and all that. So hope you take a listen to it. And that's what we do. We take, we record all these different uh roundtable uh conversations. Well, now we're dropping them into all these AI tools that are out there, and it really gives people a chance that aren't at the table to kind of listen to what was kind of talked about, to kind of um understand kind of what challenges the operators are facing, actually how they're looking at it. So hope you enjoy this uh this uh roundtable uh episode. And if you I'd love to kind of hear your comments and feedback. If you're enjoying this, please share with those around you to kind of spread the knowledge, spread the word of what's happening inside the industry and just the challenges that are here and how we're navigating for it. So thank you and hope you enjoy this roundtable discussion.
SPEAKER_02So imagine buying a fleet of brand new sports cars.
SPEAKER_00Right. Okay.
SPEAKER_02And you're ready to race, but then you realize you have to fuel them with liquid gold just to keep the engines from dying.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell, which would bankrupt you before you even hit the track.
SPEAKER_02Exactly. And that is exactly what happens when oil and gas forecasting hits the dirt. Literally.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. The physical reality is just brutal.
SPEAKER_02Right. So welcome to today's deep dive. We are doing something really special today, pulling back the curtain on a multi-billion dollar industry.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell And we're doing it using a really unique source.
SPEAKER_02Yes. We got our hands on a raw, unvarnished transcript from a closed door round table. This was entirely off the record. We're talking senior operators, service company leaders, field experts, and we are stripping away all that corporate jargon to look at what actually keeps energy executives awake at night in 2024.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Because I mean, if you read the headlines, you'd think their biggest threat is just the global price of oil, right?
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell Right, or like geopolitical stuff.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Yeah. But getting this granular view is essential because what's actually threatening these multimillion dollar drilling programs is water, electricity, private equity spreadsheets, and unexpected regulations.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell It's all the stuff that happens in the dirt. So let's just jump right in. The round table started with a story that perfectly captures this forecasting nightmare. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_00The child well story.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. So an operator in West Texas is mapping out a new drilling program. They're putting these new child wells right next to an older producing parent well.
SPEAKER_00Right. And the standard operating procedure there is just spreadsheet engineering.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell Exactly. You look at the parent well's oil and water production, you copy that data, paste it, and assume the new child well will behave exactly the same way.
SPEAKER_00Which is a massive assumption because you know geology doesn't actually respect your spreadsheet.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, the Earth doesn't care about your Excel model.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. What happens in these low pressure reservoir environments is fascinating. When you drill that first parent well, you're fundamentally altering the rock.
SPEAKER_02You're pulling fluid out.
SPEAKER_00Right. And over time, that creates a huge pressure sink. It's essentially this massive low pressure void underground.
SPEAKER_02So when you come back a year later to drill the child well, you aren't drilling into normal rock.
SPEAKER_00No, you're drilling right next to that void. And water is highly mobile down there. So it just naturally rushes into that low pressure sink.
SPEAKER_02You're drilling into a vacuum that is now just totally flooded with water.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Exactly. And in this specific roundtable story, the operator hit a deluge of water. The ratio of water to oil was just astronomical compared to their forecast.
SPEAKER_02Which kicks off this massive operational cascade, right? Because water is heavy. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_00Very heavy. Natural reservoir pressure won't lift it, so you have to pump it.
SPEAKER_02And pump it hard. They had to bring in massive electric submersible pumps, ESPs.
SPEAKER_00Which need a ton of electricity.
SPEAKER_02Right. And usually you'd just run natural gas generators using the gas coming right out of the well, free power.
SPEAKER_00But there was almost no natural gas on this specific site.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell So they are stuck. They have these huge pumps, heavy water, and no power. So they had to rent diesel generators.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell, which means trucking in diesel fuel.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And this is where the budget just totally collapses. Because diesel is sold by the gallon. Natural gas is sold by the energy equivalent.
SPEAKER_00The MMB2.
SPEAKER_02Right. And the operator said that running these operations on diesel is roughly seven times the cost of natural gas.
SPEAKER_00Seven times. Just let that sink in.
SPEAKER_02It's insane. It sounds like budgeting for a home renovation, but finding out your foundation is made of sand, and the only guy who can fix it charges by the minute.
SPEAKER_00That's a great analogy. Your AFE, your authorization for expenditure, just balloons overnight.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell So how do you even explain a 7X fuel cost increase to the people holding the purse strings?
Private Equity Return Pressure
SPEAKER_00Honestly, you usually can't. That leads right into the second big theme from the room the massive disconnect between private equity and operational reality.
SPEAKER_02Right, because the PE firms are the ones funding these drilling programs.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. And they demand these completely unrealistic rates of return, like 40%.
SPEAKER_02Wait, 40%.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. 40%. But when operators hit field realities like that unexpected water and the diesel costs we just talked about, that return might drop to say 15 or 20 percent.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell Which, I mean, in the real world, a 20% return is fantastic.
SPEAKER_00It's a huge win anywhere else. But in the private equity world, it's considered a total failure.
SPEAKER_02Because their entire goal is different.
SPEAKER_00Right. PE's ultimate goal is an MA exit. They want to sell the company. So they need to rapidly hike production to make the asset look really sexy for a buyer.
SPEAKER_02Even if it hurts the long-term health of the wells.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. They don't care about the wells 10 years from now.
SPEAKER_02So the operators are trapped in this weird catch 22. If they pitch a realistic budget with that 20% return, the PE firm just won't fund them. But if they pitch the highly optimistic 40% fantasy budget, they get the cash, but then they risk defaulting on their loans when reality actually hits.
SPEAKER_00Right. And it's not just the budgets. PE models assume these operational synergies that just don't exist in the dirt.
SPEAKER_02Like the casing design thing.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Someone in a high-rise office decides hey, if we use a cheap, standardized well design everywhere, we save millions.
SPEAKER_02But the engineers in the field know you can't just put cheap steel into a high pressure zone.
SPEAKER_00Right. You're risking the well. But you're forced to do it anyway.
SPEAKER_02Wait, if the operators know the numbers are too optimistic and the PE firms know the operators are stretching the truth just to get the cash, isn't this entire financial ecosystem built on an accepted fiction?
SPEAKER_00Yes, it absolutely is an accepted fiction. Everyone is playing the game to get to that MA exit.
Service Company Forecast Whiplash
SPEAKER_02That is wild. But this financial chaos doesn't just stay in the boardroom, it bleeds out into the field, which brings us to the third theme: the service company whiplash. Yes, the silent killer of the supply chain.
SPEAKER_00Because the service company is the folks providing the steel casing, the chemicals, the frack fleets, the trucks, they are completely flying blind.
SPEAKER_02The operator will give them a forecast like, hey, we're doing a 25 well drill schedule this year.
SPEAKER_00Right. So the service company staffs up, they buy materials, they hire drivers, they spend millions getting ready.
SPEAKER_02And then suddenly, because of budget cuts or a mandate from private equity, the operator drops from 25 wells to two wells.
SPEAKER_00Overnight.
SPEAKER_02It's like a client booking a catering business for a wedding for 500 people. So you buy all the steak, you hire the waiters, and then the day of, they say, oh, actually, only 10 people are coming.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02How does a business survive that?
SPEAKER_00Well, according to the roundtable, long-term stability is just a myth in this sector right now.
SPEAKER_02You just can't rely on it.
SPEAKER_00You can't. The service providers are left holding the bag. They have stranded assets, idle truck drivers, and huge raw material costs.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell, so what's the survival strategy then?
SPEAKER_00Extreme agility. To survive, these service companies have to constantly pivot their assets. If an operator in West Texas suddenly drops their rig count, that service company needs to be able to move their entire fleet to the Hainesville Shale in Louisiana almost immediately.
SPEAKER_02It has to be completely plug and plug.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. Diversifying your client base and having a logistical network that can pivot overnight is the only way you stay afloat.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell It's just constant whiplash. And as if volatile geology, demanding investors, and supply chain chaos weren't enough, there's the regulatory squeeze.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Right. The fourth theme. And this is a big one.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell And just to be clear for you listening, we are staying strictly impartial here. We're only recording on the operational friction that was discussed in the room regarding these new environmental regulations.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Yeah, looking purely at the math and the mechanics of it.
SPEAKER_02Trevor Burrus Right. So there's a tidal wave of new clean air and methane emission rules hitting the industry.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell And the major operators, the huge corporations, they have massive regulatory departments to handle all this compliance.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell They have lawyers, compliance officers, whole teams. But the small independent operators, they have zero regulatory staff.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell None. It falls on the CEO or maybe a single field engineer to figure out these incredibly complex rules while also trying to drill a well.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell, which means they have to hire third parties. The transcript mentioned having to buy$30,000 specialty cameras just to prove they don't have leaks.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Yeah, the burden of proof has shifted. And it's completely draining their capital. But the real issue discussed was the denominator effect.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell Okay, yes. Break this down because this math is crazy.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell So the regulations often look at your emissions ratio, right? Your total methane leaks divided by your total overall gas production. That total gas production is the denominator. If you are a massive corporation producing huge volumes of gas, your denominator is gigantic.
SPEAKER_02So even if you have a leak, the ratio looks tiny on paper.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. You pass the test. But if you're a small independent gas producer, your denominator is very small.
SPEAKER_02Right. So if you have the exact same minor leak as the big corporation, your ratio just spikes.
SPEAKER_00Mathematically, your emissions ratio looks catastrophic compared to the major corporations.
SPEAKER_02It sounds like these new rules might accidentally wipe out the small, agile entrepreneurs, the exact people who pioneered the shale boom, while basically just solidifying the monopolies of the giant corporations.
SPEAKER_00That was exactly the sentiment in the room. The cost of compliance is becoming a massive barrier to entry. Capital that should be spent on innovation or drilling new wells is being entirely diverted to administrative overhead.
SPEAKER_02It's just pushing the little guys out.
Capital Efficiency Over Growth
SPEAKER_00Right.
SPEAKER_02So zooming out from the boardroom table, what are the real takeaways here for operators and leadership?
SPEAKER_00For operators, the biggest takeaway is that the era of growth at all costs is officially over.
SPEAKER_02The easy money is gone.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Success now is about ruthless capital efficiency. You have to manage your water, figure out how to use stranded gas on site, and survive all this regulatory red tape. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_02And for leadership, you can't just operate in silos anymore, right? Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. You can't just be a geologist who only looks at rocks or a finance guy who only looks at the AFE.
SPEAKER_02You have to understand how your budget decision causes a ripple effect that bankrupts your service provider. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_00Right. Everything is connected. You have to understand policy, logistics, geology, all of it.
SPEAKER_02And for you, the listener, I think this round table proves that in any complex system, the plan is an illusion.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell The spreadsheet will always break.
SPEAKER_02Aaron Powell Exactly. True operational success requires immense agility, the willingness to pivot, and the ability to navigate these crazy conflicting demands from stakeholders.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell It's a high-stakes balancing act between physical reality, financial fantasy, and regulatory pressure.
What Happens To Innovation
SPEAKER_02Trevor Burrus, it really is. Getting this raw, unfiltered look at the industry is just incredible value. Trevor Burrus, Jr. Absolutely. So we want to leave you with a final thought to mull over. If the relentless pressure from private equity and the overwhelming burden of new regulations successfully squeeze out the small independent operators, what happens to the scrappy, risk-taking culture of innovation that built the modern energy boom in the first place?
SPEAKER_00Right. Will we lose the pioneers and just leave the industry to the giants?
SPEAKER_02It's something to think about. Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. We'll catch you next time.