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Bubble Trouble: When Housing Markets Hit Their Ceiling

• David (Viacheslav) Davidenko

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The housing market's shifting tides are revealing a fascinating divide across America. Despite headlines about soaring costs, our data shows 42 of the 300 biggest metro areas actually experienced price drops in 2025—up significantly from just 31 cities the month before.

Diving deep into these cooling markets, we find a striking pattern centered in the Sunbelt. Austin leads with a 3.8% decline, followed by Tampa (-3.6%), San Antonio (-2.0%), and Phoenix (-1.6%). These once-unstoppable pandemic boomtowns are now adjusting as migration patterns shift and supply catches up with demand. The narrative of endless price increases simply doesn't hold true anymore.

What's behind this remarkable shift? We identify three critical factors reshaping these markets. First, inventory levels have rebounded and in some places exceeded pre-pandemic numbers, giving buyers more choices. Second, many cities hit natural affordability ceilings as prices outpaced local incomes. Third, aggressive competition from homebuilders, particularly in construction-friendly states like Florida and Texas, is putting downward pressure on prices through incentives and rate buy-downs.

These changes create tangible opportunities for buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines. The power dynamic has shifted, allowing room for negotiation on price, repairs, and closing costs. For first-time buyers previously priced out of certain markets, this correction—possibly combined with stabilizing mortgage rates—might provide that long-awaited entry point. Similarly, investors with long-term horizons could find strategic opportunities in markets adjusting now but retaining strong growth fundamentals.

As we navigate these complex market shifts, one thing becomes abundantly clear: the era of predictable nationwide housing trends is over. Understanding local conditions—from inventory levels to job growth—matters more than ever. What could these changes mean for your housing decisions in the months ahead? Subscribe now for more market insights delivered straight to your feed.

📰 Read more about this topic in our latest article:  https://sunrisecapitalgroup.com/us-housing-market-trends-in-2025-the-top-10-cities-where-prices-are-dropping/

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Disclaimer: The content provided on this channel is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or tax advice. We strongly recommend that you consult with qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Past performance of investments is not indicative of future results. The information presented here is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or investments. Our firm may have conflicts of interest, and we do not guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of the content provided. Investing involves risks, and you should carefully consid...

Speaker 1:

You know we're constantly hearing these headlines right Housing costs, soaring. Owning a home feels like it's just getting further and further away.

Speaker 2:

It dominates the news cycle.

Speaker 1:

But here's where things get really interesting. Looking at the actual data for 2025. Well, the picture is quite a bit more nuanced.

Speaker 2:

It really is.

Speaker 1:

While, yeah, the national average might show a small bump up, a pretty significant number of cities are actually seeing home prices fall.

Speaker 2:

That's exactly right. That whole story of just endless price increases, it's just not the reality everywhere anymore.

Speaker 1:

Right.

Speaker 2:

What our sources are showing is this fascinating split across the country. So for this deep dive, that's what we're digging into, these shifting tides, okay, we'll pinpoint the markets in drops, unpack the reasons why and, maybe most importantly, explore what it all means for you.

Speaker 1:

All right, let's start with that big picture, the national overview. So the average US home price went up. What about 2.1% from Feb last year to this Feb?

Speaker 2:

Correct 2.1%. On the surface, yeah, it looks like growth.

Speaker 1:

But digging deeper we find that 4242 of the 300 biggest metro areas actually saw prices go down.

Speaker 2:

And think about this just the month before that number was 31.

Speaker 1:

Wow, ok, so that's quite a jump. It feels like this cooling trend is picking up steam in certain spots, doesn't it?

Speaker 2:

It really does that national average. It kind of papers over these really important regional stories and what's really telling is where this cooling is happening. It's not just random, it's focused really in those areas that saw the absolute biggest price surges during the pandemic housing rush.

Speaker 1:

Ah, ok, so we're talking Sunbelt, yeah, places like Florida, texas, arizona.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, those are the hotspots, the boom markets, and now, well, some of them are seeing a definite shift.

Speaker 1:

Okay, let's get into the specifics then. The top 10 markets with price drops in 2025. Leading the pack is Austin, Texas, down 3.8%. What happened there? Austin felt unstoppable for a while.

Speaker 2:

It really did. Austin's popularity just exploded during the pandemic right Pulled in tons of new people, yeah, but that pushed prices up so fast, so high, that it looks like it just hit a wall. An affordability ceiling Makes sense and we're also seeing more homes for sale there now, partly because some of that remote work migration that fueled things it's reversing a bit. So, yeah, demand has cooled off.

Speaker 1:

Interesting. Okay, next up Tampa, florida, down 3.6 percent. Similar story playing out there.

Speaker 2:

We're seeing related things in Tampa. Yeah, that big wave of remote workers coming in, that slowed down too.

Speaker 1:

Right.

Speaker 2:

And at the same time you've got more houses on the market. So put those together and buyers suddenly have more choices, which means more bargaining power.

Speaker 1:

Gives them leverage. Ok, san Antonio, another Texas city down 2.0 percent Now. I always thought of San Antonio as like the more affordable option compared to Austin or Dallas. What's driving the drop there?

Speaker 2:

Well, even though it was relatively more affordable, prices there still grew faster than local paychecks did. That created this imbalance. You know, it just wasn't sustainable. So this dip it feels like a necessary correction, bringing house prices back towards what the local economy can actually support.

Speaker 1:

Gotcha, new Orleans, louisiana, minus 1.7 percent. This one feels maybe different factors are at play.

Speaker 2:

That's a good point. New Orleans has struggled a bit more with ongoing affordability issues.

Speaker 1:

OK.

Speaker 2:

And job growth hasn't been quite as strong as in some other Sunbelt cities. Those longer term economic pressures they're likely adding to the downward push on home prices there.

Speaker 1:

Okay Then Phoenix, arizona down 1.6%. Another Sunbelt classic that boomed and is now well adjusting.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, phoenix had a massive run up. A lot of that was driven by people moving in from out of state, especially California. Exactly, phoenix had a massive run up. A lot of that was driven by people moving in from out of state, especially California.

Speaker 1:

Right, I remember that.

Speaker 2:

Now that out of state demand, it's easing off. Plus, there's been a lot of new home construction, so the market's just, you know, finding its new level.

Speaker 1:

Makes sense. Jacksonville, florida, is next down 1.5 percent. What's the story in Jacksonville?

Speaker 2:

Jacksonville seems to be a mix of things Fewer people moving in compared to before and at the same time, more houses available overall, more supply, less new demand. That usually pushes prices down.

Speaker 1:

Simple economics really OK. Dallas, texas down 1.4 percent. Now that's interesting because Dallas is such a big economic engine.

Speaker 2:

It is Absolutely. Dallas is still a strong economic hub, but even there the housing market seems to be hitting a point where supply is catching up, maybe even getting a little ahead of the current demand. There's just a lot of inventory available and homes aren't selling quite as fast as they used to Market saturation perhaps.

Speaker 1:

Orlando, florida also minus 1.4%. Does tourism factor in there?

Speaker 2:

It looks like it does. Yeah, we're seeing signs that investors aren't quite as keen on Orlando right now. Okay, and if tourism cools off even a bit, that can dampen housing demand too, especially for certain types of properties like short-term rentals. So softer demand seems to be part of the story.

Speaker 1:

Colorado Springs, colorado, down 1.2 percent. That market was super competitive not long ago.

Speaker 2:

It really was. Colorado Springs is seeing slower growth now. There's definitely more supply available than there was during the frenzy and it seems like maybe buyer tastes are shifting a little too. So you don't have those crazy bidding wars anymore, leading to some price adjustments downwards. Okay, so you don't have those crazy bidding wars anymore, leading to some price adjustments downwards.

Speaker 1:

OK, and finishing the top 10, fort Myers, florida, down 1.1 percent, another spot popular with retirees and remote workers.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, fort Myers definitely drew in those groups. The price dip now suggests the market's just adapting. You know, the demand from retirees and telecommuters isn't maybe as intense as it was. The factors that drove that growth are changing.

Speaker 1:

So, ok, we're definitely seeing a pattern here, especially in the Sunbelt. We zoom out a bit. What are the like? The main, pretty significant oversupply of homes in many areas.

Speaker 2:

Oversupply. Ok yeah, inventory. The number of homes for sale in a lot of these Sunbelt cities hasn't just bounced back to pre-pandemic levels, and in some cases it's actually higher now.

Speaker 1:

Wow.

Speaker 2:

In all that choice. It just gives buyers way more power. Sellers have to be more flexible on price.

Speaker 1:

That makes total sense. More options mean sellers have to compete harder. What's the second big factor?

Speaker 2:

The second one is hitting affordability caps. It's simple, really Prices in these places just shot up so high so fast, they went beyond what local people could actually afford. And now that the big rush of people moving in during the pandemic has slowed down, well, local incomes just can't keep those super inflated prices propped up.

Speaker 1:

So the frenzy outpaced the fundamentals.

Speaker 2:

Exactly. It's like a balloon that got blown up too quickly and now some air is slowly coming out and needed correction really OK.

Speaker 1:

So supplies up. Affordability got stretched too thin. What's the third driver?

Speaker 2:

The third piece is competition from builders. Especially in states like Florida and Texas, Construction didn't really slow down that much. So to keep selling those new homes, builders are getting competitive. They're lowering prices, offering discounts or doing things like mortgage rate buy downs.

Speaker 1:

Can you quickly explain what a buy down is?

Speaker 2:

Sure, basically, the builder pays some of your mortgage interest for the first year, or two, sometimes three, so your monthly payment starts out lower. Oh, the builder pays some of your mortgage interest for the first year, or two, sometimes three, so your monthly payment starts out lower, oh OK. And when builders are doing that, offering deals on brand new houses, it puts pressure on people selling existing homes nearby to lower their prices too.

Speaker 1:

Right, they have to compete. Ok, so we've got oversupply, stretched affordability and builder competition, all pushing prices down in these specific markets. Now something else came up in our sources, kind of an unexpected curveball tariffs.

Speaker 2:

Yes, this was interesting. New tariffs introduced back in April 2025, they caused some jitters in the financial markets.

Speaker 1:

How so.

Speaker 2:

Well, we saw the S&P 500 dip nearly 5% and yields on long-term bonds fell. Now that drop in bond yields actually pushed mortgage rates down. They hit a four-month low around 6.63%.

Speaker 1:

Okay, wait. Lower mortgage rates Isn't that usually good news for homebuyers? Makes things cheaper.

Speaker 2:

Normally, yes, absolutely, but in this specific context it's maybe a bit of a double-edged sword.

Speaker 1:

How do you?

Speaker 2:

mean Well, yes, lower rates could help with affordability on paper, but if these tariffs end up slowing down the whole economy or, worst case, contribute to a recession, then that could actually weaken overall demand for houses. People might get nervous about jobs, about the future, and decide not to buy a house right now, even with slightly lower rates.

Speaker 1:

So the lower rates might not be enough to overcome broader economic worries triggered by the tariffs.

Speaker 2:

Exactly. It just adds another layer of complexity, another thing to watch and it really highlights why you've got to pay super close attention to those local economic details. You know job growth in your city, how much inventory is really available, how much new construction is happening nearby your city, how much inventory is really available, how much new construction is happening nearby? Those become even more critical when you have these big external pressures like tariffs, potentially impacting things Okay.

Speaker 1:

So, given all this the price drops in certain cities, the shifting conditions, the tariff uncertainty what does this mean in terms of opportunities for buyers, maybe investors?

Speaker 2:

Well for buyers, especially in those markets seeing prices soften. The biggest plus is definitely more negotiating power. Right, you might find you can actually haggle on the price now, which felt impossible a couple of years ago. Or you could ask the seller to pay for needed repairs or even help cover some of your closing costs.

Speaker 1:

It's not just about getting a lower list price, it's about the whole negotiation.

Speaker 2:

Exactly. It's a much different feel than the you know, the crazy bidding wars where buyers had almost zero leverage.

Speaker 1:

OK, and what if you're looking at real estate as an investment? Any potential upsides here?

Speaker 2:

Potentially yes. For investors who are thinking long term, these price corrections could be interesting entry points, especially in markets that are dipping now but still have good underlying fundamentals like still projecting decent population growth, still creating jobs over the long haul. Austin and Phoenix were mentioned as examples places adjusting now but maybe still good bets for the future if you can ride out the current softness.

Speaker 1:

And what about first-time homebuyers? It felt like they were completely priced out of some of these places.

Speaker 2:

This could actually be a really positive shift for them, those markets that seem totally out of reach financially. They might start looking more accessible now, especially if mortgage rates do continue to drift down a bit. This might just be the window some first-time buyers have been desperately waiting for to finally get into the market.

Speaker 1:

OK, so let's try and wrap this up. The big picture for the US housing market in 2025 is well, it's complicated. It's definitely not just one story. Not at all. We're seeing these pretty significant adjustments, these corrections happening, particularly in those Sunbelt markets that went kind of supernova during the pandemic.

Speaker 2:

That's the core message. I think that era of just easy, automatic price growth everywhere, especially in those hot markets, that seems to be over, at least for now.

Speaker 1:

The simple narrative is gone.

Speaker 2:

Right, it's much more market by market now.

Speaker 1:

And this whole shift is creating real opportunities for buyers definitely Maybe for savvy investors too. You mentioned Tampa and Austin specifically as places where buyers might find they have a bit more clout now.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, the power dynamic is shifting back towards buyers a bit in markets like those, giving them more room to negotiate.

Speaker 1:

So, as we finish this deep dive, it really hammers home how vital it is to watch those local signs, doesn't it? Inventory levels, mortgage rate moves what the local economy is doing.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely crucial.

Speaker 1:

National headlines give you a mood, but local data tells you the reality on the ground you a mood, but local data tells you the reality on the ground and for you listening, I guess the takeaway thought is how might these shifts, this cooling in some areas, the impact of rates, the economic backdrop, how might all that affect your housing plans or maybe your investment? Thinking down the road, Definitely something to keep a close eye on.

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David (Viacheslav) Davidenko

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