Inside IALR

Living Wages by the Numbers: What 15,000 Job Postings Reveal

• Institute for Advanced Learning and Research

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What does it really take for families in Southern Virginia to make a living — no extras, just the basics? And are those jobs actually available?

In this data-rich episode, host Caleb Ayers talks with Jessie Vernon, Director of Employer Engagement and Experiential Learning at IALR, and economist Colin Emberland from Chmura Analytics. Together, they break down the Southern Virginia Living Wage and Job Availability Study, comparing today’s landscape to a similar 2016–2017 analysis.

They explore the region’s growing share of higher-wage jobs, a major and urgent gap in healthcare, the evolving role of manufacturing, and how many families can actually meet a living wage with the jobs currently posted. You’ll also hear why education and training pipelines matter, how job quality is just as important as job quantity, and what this all means for employers, educators and residents across GO Virginia Region 3.

The Institute for Advanced Learning and Research serves as a regional catalyst for economic transformation in Southern Virginia. Our services, programs and offerings are diverse, impactful and far reaching.

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Colin Emberland:

So for two working adults and two children with two children families in uh 2017, only 60% of those families could meet their uh basic needs uh with the jobs available. In uh 2025, that rose to 87%. So that is a 27 percentage point rise, which is very substantial.

Caleb Ayers:

Welcome to another episode of Inside IALR. Thanks for joining us today. This one we're gonna be doing a pretty deep dive into a bunch of data. So if you love data, stick around. If you don't, you should still stick around because it's interesting. I'm with two guests here. We have Jesse Vernon, who's our director of employer engagement and experiential learning here at IALR, and Colin Emberland, who is an economic consultant with Chimura Analytics. So thank you all for being here uh today for this podcast. So to start off, um, the Southern Virginia Living Wage and Job Availability Study. This was recently published in uh, what was it? I guess November of 2025. Uh so I guess say recently, it's been it's been a few months, but still very accurate and relevant data, is just kind of a snapshot of the exactly what the title says. You know, what kind of jobs are available? What is the living range living wage in the region? IALR commissioned this study uh with support from the uh Danville Regional Foundation in Go, Virginia, Chimura Analytics was you know responsible for carrying it out. So I guess I'm just gonna open it up. Super big picture. Give me the I I know it's like a 50-page report, but give me the the quick the quick version of what does this report say.

Colin Emberland:

All right. Yeah. So um this report is uh, like you said, it's 50 pages. It's broadly there's two parts. There's the living wage part and there's the jobs availability part. And the um the one of the reasons we did this report, uh, I I believe is the um we had uh a report earlier on um in 2016-2017 that looked at something similar for just the Dan River region. So we wanted to one figure out what the uh living wage jobs availability was uh for the broader Southern Virginia region, but also uh see how it's changed since we first did this report. And uh broad strokes is um it has improved. Uh we've had um much better living wage jobs availability, but there is still room to work. Um there's more jobs available, there's uh higher paying wages available throughout the region. However, uh we could still see more uh high wage, low turnover jobs moving forward. Uh that's that's the uh the broad uh strokes of it. Living wage as well has has uh gone up and it's gone up um more than uh just the uh you know we we of course had a minimum wage hike and it's you know a little bit more than that for some uh different family types. However, um it has uh also increased faster than inflation. So there is a push and pull uh there. There are more jobs available, however, um there are some family types that may struggle to meet their basic needs.

Caleb Ayers:

Let's get into the you said living wage, you said family type. Let's let's define a few of these things because I know that's kind of the basis for what all of the data shows. So I guess, yeah, what is what is a living wage? How do we define that? And I guess up front, I'll also say so, as you mentioned, this covers more of Southern Virginia. So this covers 15 localities in Go Virginia region, which for those who don't know what that is, that's essentially it's it's a large portion of Southern Virginia, extending all the way to Amelia County, you know, getting closer into Richmond, all the way to Patrick County, you know, to the west of us, all the way a little bit further north as well. So uh yeah, go ahead with those with those very exciting definitions of what is a living wage, how do we define that? And what is what are the different family types we're looking at?

Colin Emberland:

Living wage is the uh the basic wage that a family will need to meet their basic needs. So that means uh they they will only be able to meet their basic needs. Um, so they won't have uh extra money for savings, for vacations, for uh, let's say Netflix, anything eating out, for example. Um so that that's the living wage. It's it's the minimum amount of money that people need in order to meet their basic needs. There are a few different components that go into living wage. There's the food component, there's the child care component, there's the health care component, uh, there are uh the transportation component. Uh let's see if I'm missing anything. Then there's the uh housing component, of course. Then there's other necessities, uh cleaning supplies, clothes, and um then of course you have taxes. Uh so those are the components of living wage. And uh we also uh for the original study back in 2016-2017, uh Chmura Analytics conducted a survey of Dan River participant or Dan River uh residents that um that where we could determine the different types of families that are common in the region. Uh so they of course do not uh do not uh uh consider every single family type because that that would be close to impossible. But uh the family types we uh landed on are um one adult families with between one and three children, and it is assumed that that that adult is working. Then we have uh two adult families where only one adult is working with one to three children. And then we have two adult families where two adults are working with one to three children. And uh one caveat here I want to mention is that uh for the two adult families where only one is working, it is assumed that the uh the adult that is not working will take over child care responsibilities. So we will see a uh lower impact on the living wage in the child care portion in uh those families.

Caleb Ayers:

That would make sense. All right. Thank you for those, for those kind of yeah, laying the groundwork of how we get here. Jesse, I guess we'll we'll bring it to you. So why is IALR interested in this type of data as far as you know what jobs are out there, what kinds of jobs are out there, the wages and the the availability of those jobs. You know, why is this something that we're interested in and why did we commission this study?

Jessie Vernon :

The institute's mission to serve as a catalyst for economic transformation um really positions us as more of a convener, right? We don't confer degrees at like a traditional higher education center. Um, however, right, we are very interested in making sure that education is connected to industry and that we are creating an economy in our region where all can thrive. So, in order to do that, right, it's really important for us to understand what is what's required for our families to make a living wage. And as Colin mentioned, like that's no extras, that's no fluff, that's just we're making it here. Um that's kind of right a minimum standard of what's needed, right, for our families to survive, really. Um, so an understanding of what are those figures as we're working with employers and as we're attracting right um industry to the region. Um, but then to the job availability piece is okay, where are the jobs? So, what are those industries that have um current gaps in their talent pipeline? And how can we work with our partners in the region? Because it's certainly not a one, like one organization is not gonna solve right um these issues for our communities. Um, but how can we begin to have really informed conversations about where our efforts are best placed and where are you gonna see the biggest impact? Um, and where are we currently right now like struggling? So, you know, there's some data in the study that really shows like a current um job gap um that's here, that is not like a okay, this is gonna be an issue in the future because people are retiring, or um like it's not a hypothetical, it's here and we need to work to do what we can to meet that need.

Caleb Ayers:

All right, so yeah, let's jump into that gap. Um, so healthcare is the gap. Based on the study that that was done, approximately 35, 36% of the available job openings are in the healthcare field. So both of you, open it up, talk to me about that. Talk to me about what we're seeing, what's contributing to that, what do we do about that?

Colin Emberland:

We see this dynamic um it not only in the region, but really across the state, across the country. Uh a lot of the country, a lot of the state is in uh a healthcare shortage. We need a uh a lot more like nurses, medical assistants, uh, healthcare or medical coders, you know, the these jobs that um that are uh it necessary for the healthcare system to really uh survive. Um and it it gets worse when you really get into more rural regions where um the the pay may not be quite as high as the urban regions. So so it is um uh there is a difficulty there to um uh uh to attract the healthcare workforce. And it has compounded since the COVID-19 pandemic, which um uh at that point there were uh uh it was a stressful period to be in the healthcare industry, um, as I think we can all assume. And there were uh waves of retirements, but also we have an aging uh healthcare workforce, uh, especially in the registered nurses occupation group. Uh so attracting uh nurses, which I believe are the um the most prevalent uh occupation in job postings uh is is really paramount to um attracting uh or to getting the healthcare uh gap to close. And it and there's uh also um getting that healthcare gap to close also uh has benefits that go outside of uh just closing the healthcare gap. Uh having more stable medical infrastructure can also help attract uh firms and different businesses to the area.

Jessie Vernon :

And I would just tack on maybe to what Colin had mentioned about, you know, the reasons that there's a gap, um, aging, you know, especially like RN workforce, you know, an aging population that needs more care, but also, you know, what we hear from on our education partner side is there's the current pipeline to healthcare careers is only so large. Um, a lot of those programs have a lot of interest, um, right? We've exposed students through to healthcare careers through things like career choice, and right, they're hearing about, right? Hey, you have travel nurses make a lot of money, and um just being a nurse, right? Not a travel nurse, right, is is a great career. Um so many things students are hearing that message, um, but due to just the size of say CTE programs um at you know our local schools, um, clinical, you know, rotations, like right now the capacity for those programs is only so large. So even with students filling all of those gaps, if you have 50 students that are interested in your CNA program, but you only have slot for 20, where are those 30 other students going? Um, do they wait until they can go to their local community college or right other post-secondary institution and for just kind of delay their pipeline into those fields, or do we lose them entirely because they're like, well, there's kind of no room for me here right now? They say there's a good job, but like I I don't, I can't get there. Um, so I think it's there's kind of a two-part, you know, factor and just there's more demand. Um, but right now our pipelines to that demand are not, they need to be larger. Um, I mean, we're doing what we can with the resources that we have. I mean, that's a a larger problem to address with all of our partners because there's right, who's gonna train them all and where does that funding coming from? And who's gonna host all of them for clinical? So I mean it's a multifaceted issue.

Caleb Ayers:

And what you're saying about, you know, I know you guys like Jesse, you guys like to work in your your structure of career, career awareness, you know, funneling into some type of career exposure and engagement and then actual experience. And yeah, if you're getting them interested, but then there's nowhere for them to go next, that's not very that doesn't help them get to that career that they're interested in. So that's obviously what what you're talking about is a key takeaway for IALR as as that convener, as that, you know, organization that brings other entities together. If we have that in our if we have that in mind, you know, that we we need to increase the capacity and ability to train healthcare workers. Um, that's clearly seems like a big takeaway from this from this study. I want to switch gears for a second because I kind of wanted to talk about this up front. Um, Colin, I would imagine you spent hundreds of hours through this report. Tell me about what goes into developing, putting together, gathering the data, a report like this.

Colin Emberland:

Luckily, uh, we already had our living wage model built for the most part uh by Zhao Bing Shui, who uh is one of the uh, or I think actually VP of research here uh back in 2016. And um so uh but gathering the data is um it there's certain challenges, especially when you compare time periods. Uh for example, we are limited to the data that is available to us. Um so some data that was available in 2016 has since become unavailable. So we had to uh go through and find different ways to kind of uh uh merge those two types or find alternative sources to our data. Um one example I'll give is with uh healthcare insurance uh estimates, which go into our uh living wage model. Um for those uh the surveys that we used in 2016 were not available during um for for Virginia as a state. So um during 2025. So what we had to do is basically we were able to get it from a regional level. So we had to basically uh average the northeast and the uh southeast regions because that um Virginia has qualities of both. So there's a little bit of um, you know, there's a little bit of nuance to all the data gathering. Then for the living wage or the jobs availability portion, the data we get it from uh, I want to say like 40,000 job post websites uh that our data team collects. And uh we're able to really uh uh get it down to the industry level, down to the local level there. There are different like intricacies that you might not expect with that as well. One example is uh when we look at things by industry, one very big industry is uh employment agencies and temp agencies, right? Uh so but the the um the jobs that are posted by employment agencies and temp agencies, those work in different uh industries. So we do some modeling there to make sure that we put those in the right place, but it's also a little bit of just uh brute force going through and seeing what actually uh if everything is output where it's supposed to be. Um then there's the the analysis side, which uh, you know, I'm an economist, I love that part of it. So um it's which is um, you know, very uh using different statistical methods, but also just using different uh uh more subjective methods. Um and one thing I I think I mentioned, I might have mentioned earlier that went into our original study that really helped shape the way that we think about the region is the survey that we conducted uh for the original study. You know, that that really shapes the way that we see the family types in the region and uh create the living wage model off that.

Caleb Ayers:

I can't say I read every word of the 50-page report, but I've been involved in enough uh I've done enough content with it and engaged with it a lot. It's very, very in-depth. Um, so yeah, like I said, I would imagine you spent a lot of hours putting those pieces together. You know, we've mentioned the the 2017 um study. Kind of what are the main changes that we've seen since then? Um what are what are kind of the main main takeaways, main changes we've seen in that time?

Colin Emberland:

So we've seen a uh shift up in wages. And it uh comes both from um, you know, there was some wage inflation during the post-pandemic era, but also there was a uh minimum wage hike. Uh, so the minimum wages that we saw in the 2017 uh study are just not existent in uh Virginia. Uh but even past that, there has been a um a shift forward or shift up in wages, and that is uh primarily due to uh the healthcare uh the healthcare job postings. And I'm gonna track down a little bit of data right here just to give you an idea of uh the different uh occupation uh mix that um happened or the industry mix, occupation mix that has happened since then. Um so in uh 2017, in June 2017, only 18% of jobs were in the healthcare and social assistance industry, while, as you said, 36% and were there in 2025, while the largest industry in uh 2016 was retail trade, which includes, you know, uh store workers. Um and that was in 2020 or 2016, that was 29.5, while in 2025 that was only 15.8. Um, so that tells us that there is a shift towards these higher quality jobs. However, you know, the the the healthcare positions, as we've said, are not getting filled as quickly as they need to. But they also there is also some turnover in healthcare jobs. So we would like to see more um uh lower turnover jobs to to really uh be more prevalent. Then with um, but one of the things I want to mention with retail trade, it's a very good thing that they retail trade takes up a lower proportion of job postings because retail trade is a uh low wage uh compared to uh the other industries. I think uh retail trade and accommodation and food services are the the lowest wage industries, but they also are very high turnover. There's always a constant turn of employees. So that means a lot of these posts uh for the retail trade sector are not even necessarily, oh, we need this position now. They are evergreen. So they are posts that the companies always have up. So seeing that take a uh a lower position really um it tells me that there are better opportunities arising in the region. Now, as far as jobs availability goes, we have seen vast improvements for living wage jobs availability. Of course, we would like to see it improve even further. And uh uh we would love to see us get past the the living wage, because of course we want people to save and want people to um uh spend on their wants instead of just needs. But as far as living wage jobs availability between June 2017 and June 2025, uh I want to just give one data point as a um as an example of how much better it it got. Uh so for two working adults and two children with two children families, in uh 2017, only 60% of those families could meet their uh basic needs uh with the jobs available. In uh 2025, that rose to 87%. So that is a 27 percentage point rise, which is very substantial. But of course, we we would love to see that get to 100%. But yeah, vast improvements since since 2016. We've also seen vast improvements with the quantity of jobs. Um, so now the focus uh that that we see is mostly quality as opposed to quantity. Um so there was a uh pretty large labor surplus in 2016, and now uh there is a labor shortage, which means that um, you know, there are more uh jobs available than workers.

Caleb Ayers:

And for another data point, this report for 2025 looked at bit more than 15,000 job openings, just to give context of like what type of scale we're talking about here. We talked about healthcare for a while. Um, Jesse, what do you see as some of the other kind of main takeaways as far as what other challenges do you see? And how do you see IALR being able to step in and kind of being able to help address some of these challenges or um yeah, I guess challenges or issues you see?

Jessie Vernon :

I think something that was interesting for us with the study was to see, you know. We have industry sectors that, you know, our region, as you know, all regions across the state do that are being targeted for like economic development. Um, and manufacturing has obviously been a large one, you know, here in Southern Virginia and across Virginia. And so, right, it's if we've been making this push to try and attract manufacturing um companies, right, and growth within manufacturers that are in our region already, um, you know, you want the data should hopefully kind of back up that effort. Um, and I think, you know, the healthcare statistics do skew things greatly, but I think, and you know, Colin will correct me if I'm wrong, but you know, I think the report did show that there has been positive movement made within, like, say, the manufacturing um sector as well. Um, so I think what's happening in healthcare, you know, is happening because of an aging population and retirements within that um region. So we're seeing a heavy shortfall there, but that's that statistic, like it's I guess it's so large that it sort of hides some of the other um improvements and positive change that have been made in other industries like manufacturing. So um the efforts that are you know being put towards that haven't been for naught, right? It is making a difference. Um, you know, and there are other announcements coming, right? Microporous being a huge one. Um so as these huge opportunities come to the region, um, what may appear currently, right, or in the snapshot, right? Because it's already a lot of data points just to do a snapshot of what may appear as a surplus now, say in manufacturing, may not be a surplus for very long. Um, right, you take one large employer who's gonna hire a thousand people, and suddenly that surplus will be gone. Um we also, you know, hear that there's still sometimes a misalignment between, you know, there's a person available to fill that role based on the data. Um, but then the specific skills level or job requirements, right, of the body, I guess the person, right, aren't at the current level needed for that position. Um so how are we ensuring that we're continuing to identify what those skills are that employers are are needing for these positions and making sure that people are properly trained or thinking about how do we cross-train people? So if there are less retail jobs and that's what someone has been doing, how do we upskill that individual so that they can then move over and take that opportunity in the healthcare industry or in some of these new um openings within other fields that currently they're not qualified for, um, but with a little training they could be.

Colin Emberland:

If you don't mind, just to just to give you an idea of uh how much manufacturing itself has improved, um, for the same data point. Um, so uh for jobs availability for families with two working adults and two children, in uh 2017, only 70% of those uh types of families could meet a uh their basic needs uh through a manufacturing job. While in um in let's see, 2025, 94%. So so there there are there have been uh major improvements there as well.

Caleb Ayers:

As you guys were talking about this, that was occurring to me over the last few minutes that like this is showing what jobs are posted and open, not what jobs people already have. So that's also like as far as what the data can't and can't, what the data can and cannot tell us, that obviously is a factor.

Colin Emberland:

Yes, yes. And also another factor as well is these are online job postings. So for uh like it won't take up like, for example, if you get the job through an apprenticeship or word of mouth. Um and uh so that that might skew it as well.

Caleb Ayers:

There's a lot of interesting nuggets you can pull out of this report. Um, before we go, what is one other thing we haven't talked about very much that you would want to highlight in this report or one one other thing that as a region, you know, collectively would, you know, what do what do we need to do with this information? Just one one last thought that you all have about all of this.

Colin Emberland:

So the last part of the report is about regional capacity. And um, this is where we look at how many uh, you know, the the labor uh supply versus labor demand and bring it all together. And I want to point out that um, as I said before, uh we made vast improvements on both quantity and quality, but uh quality is still an uh issue that we can continue to work on. Um so we had a uh a pretty large regional shortage in uh the first quarter of 2025 when you look at all jobs overall. So 900 more job openings than workers in the first quarter of 2025. But if you adjust that for the living wage uh by just taking out the jobs that don't meet the average living wage, um we end up with a labor surplus. So 584 more workers than job openings. So even though we have made some uh uh enormous improvements since uh 2017, uh we can still work on getting those uh lower turnover, high higher paid uh jobs to help people really meet their basic needs.

Jessie Vernon :

I think for me, one of the other takeaways was looking at the percentage of jobs that require some type of post-secondary education, um, right, as someone working in advanced learning at the institute, and that's of interest to me. Um so while there have been increases in the percentage of jobs that require a bachelor's degree or even just some post-secondary training, um, there's still a large three-fifths about of positions that don't require post-secondary training. Um thinking about how do we ensure that we're working with our education partners to push the education and training piece earlier into the pipeline. We can't wait until they're out of school, right? Because they're being hired just out of school, and employers are saying they don't really need formal, you know, specific certification necessarily or post-secondary training through a community college program or um a higher education program. But there are still all of those employability skills and other factors that we're hearing employers they need that in their upcoming talent. And so, how are we making sure that those things are being addressed earlier so that as students are graduating from high school, if that's all that's required for the position, um, that they're qualified to meet those positions.

Caleb Ayers:

Very good takeaways. And yeah, like like we said, I think there's a lot of there's a lot of data in here that can inform a lot of decisions moving forward. You know, this is not, there's not one main takeaway. I mean, obviously the improvement since 2017 is a good thing to point to, that like as a region, you know, we are getting getting stronger in terms of the quality and the quantity of jobs at jobs, as you said, Colin. But there's a lot of data points that you can point to as evidence of you know things that as a region, as as you know, IELR, as workforce um, you know, as as education, education providers, higher ed, all of those can can you know work on to improve um the preparation for those jobs, all types of the takeaways that we can have. So um I think this will be a good good roadmap for a lot of a lot of change, a lot of um workforce development programs, a lot of um Jesse used the word alignment earlier. I know that's a big part of it is aligning what skill sets are or I guess the training and the skill sets that are administered with the skill sets that are needed in those jobs. So yeah, lots of lots of great stuff in there. So thank you both for being here and taking the time to talk about this.

Jessie Vernon :

Thanks, Caleb.

Caleb Ayers:

Thank you.