Status Wars: Understanding the Psychology Behind Global Trade Conflicts

Episode Overview

 In this episode, host Filip Brokes sits down with Carsten Giersch, Senior Partner at Berlin Risk Advisors and Managing Partner at ALL AML, for a wide-ranging discussion on how geopolitical events affect global financial markets. Recorded live at the FIBE conference in Berlin, this conversation dives into topics such as current trade tensions, the psychological dimensions of policy decisions, and how both businesses and governments can respond to shifting geopolitical landscapes.

Key Topics & Takeaways

1. Carsten’s Background
   • Academic history in Political Science, with a focus on international relations and conflicts.
   • Move to consultancy 15 years ago, co-founding Berlin Risk Advisors and ALL AML.
   • Specialization in due diligence investigations, integrity checks, and external money-laundering compliance.
2. The Trump Era and Geopolitical Shifts
   • How President Trump’s approach changed the global risk climate.
   • The interplay of “hard” geopolitical risks with “soft” psychological factors in policy-making.
   • The concept of an “imperial presidency” and how it erodes traditional checks and balances.
3. Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
   • The legal loophole behind imposing tariffs through a declared “national emergency.”
   • Potential consequences of escalating trade wars on global markets.
   • Why perceptions of fairness and status matter more than purely rational economic logic.
4. European Responses and Strategies
   • The possibility of EU retaliation via tariffs and/or regulatory measures on services.
   • Alternative strategies for Europe: new free trade agreements, investment in AI, green tech, and collaborative defense.
   • The need for regulatory balance: building resilience (e.g., through AML regulations) without stifling innovation.
5. Cultural Factors in Entrepreneurship
   • Comparing U.S. risk culture to Europe’s more conservative regulatory environment.
   • Potential reforms in education and policy to foster entrepreneurial spirit within the EU.
6. Outlook for Globalization
   • Why the rise of nationalist sentiments doesn’t necessarily mean an end to globalization.
   • The importance of free trade partnerships, from Latin America to Asia, for Europe’s future.
   • Opportunities for the EU to play a leading role in an era of uncertainty.

Quotes

• “It’s both about hard facts on one hand and about psychology on the other.”
  Carsten on why Trump’s policies have sparked greater volatility than previous administrations.
• “Loss aversion and status-based motivations can drive political decisions more than raw economic logic.”
  Carsten highlighting the psychological underpinnings of trade wars.
• “This crisis is also an opportunity for the EU to define a more progressive, open-minded agenda.”
  Carsten discussing how Europe can capitalize on U.S. isolationism to strengthen its own competitiveness.

References & Further Reading

• Berlin Risk Advisors – https://berlinrisk.com/ 
• ALL AML – https://allaml.eu/ 
• International Emergency Economic Powers Act (1977) – The U.S. legislation Trump invoked to impose tariffs - https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 

Connect with Us:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/integrity-insights/?viewAsMember=true
• Berlin Risk Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/berlinrisk/?viewAsMember=true
• Website: https://berlinrisk.com/