The SAF Podcast

The SAF Podcast: Refining Airbp's SAF strategy

• SAF Investor • Season 2 • Episode 19

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This week on the SAF Podcast,  SAF Investor Editor Fayaz Hussain has a conversation with Sven Rieve, Airbp's sustainability advisor. Rieve dives deep into Airbp's strategy for conquering the skies with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

We explore their current production footprint, the diverse feedstocks used, and the markets they're targeting.

The discussion takes off with Airbp's commitment to increasing SAF production capacity in key regions like Europe, the UK, and the US. Rieve sheds light on Airbp's preference for co-processing as a production method and explains why they're keeping a watchful eye on emerging pathways for future investment.

The conversation then steers towards regulations. Rieve offers Airbp's perspective on the Renewable Energy Directive and the crucial role of feedstocks within the European regulatory framework. He proposes a compelling solution – a focus on cultivating cover crops – to address Europe's growing need for SAF feedstocks.

We wrap up by exploring the contrasting regulatory landscapes across the UK, US, and Europe. Rieve analyzes how these differences will shape the future trajectory of SAF supply and demand, offering valuable insights for industry stakeholders.

 If you enjoyed this episode, catch our recent discussion with Jonathan Yeo, FlyORO about blending SAF and the supply chain challenges: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/15360818

Host: Fayaz Hussain, SAF Investor
Producer: Oscar Henderson, SAF Investor

Speaker 1:

Welcome everyone. Welcome to SAF Investor Podcast. My name is Fayaz Hussain. I am the editor for SAF Investor News. We're joined by Sven Rieb from AABP. Without introducing him myself, I give him the floor to introduce himself what he has done, how he came at AVP and what he has done in the past. So yeah, over to you, sven.

Speaker 2:

Thank you, fayaz, and hello everyone. My name is Sven Leiva. I work for AVP, one of the fuel suppliers supplying SAF to the market. Suppliers supplying SAF to the market. I've joined AOBP back in 2015 and have been in a variety of roles around supply chain management and project management.

Speaker 2:

I've joined our sustainability team about three years ago and really what we're focusing on is three separate pillars to bring more SAF to our customers. The first is to look at our strategy and understand the impact of changes that are happening around the world and integrating that into our business. The second is advocacy, so understanding policy changes, understanding changes in other rule sets and then again exchanging information with those folks and speaking at events, doing podcasts like these to make sure that we have a good environment for SAF distribution in the future SAF distribution in the future. And the last one is our business development arm, where we're looking at supplying our customers with the products that they're requesting.

Speaker 2:

On SAF, we've continually evolved our portfolio mainly of European locations, where we supply in those locations to our customers, including commercial airlines and general aviation customers. Yeah, so that's roughly what we do. Just a reminder, supplying SAF is still a really small part of what we do. Our core business is focused on supplying conventional jet fuel and will continue to be while we scale SAF in line with customer demand and happy to have a quick chat with you. Thanks for the invite.

Speaker 1:

Perfect. So ABB is one of the leading ESB players, I'd say in UK and across the world as well. But just to kind of understand what, what kind of footprint does ABp have in saf? So where do you have saf projects right now? And, in terms of value chain, where do you guys come in?

Speaker 2:

so on south, specifically, um, we're active, I would say, across most of the saf supply chain. So we're producing safa, two vp refineries at Castillon in Spain and at Lingen in Germany which are running coprocessing to produce SAF. We're also buying SAF to transport it to our customers, where we're active in sort of everything from sourcing to blending to distribution, to sales. So really trying to be active across the whole value chain, as well as active across the whole Jetfuel value chain. So from refining to distribution and marketing, and it's a similar concept, right. We're trying to get our customers the products that they're requesting of us and I think so far we've had really good success in the SAF space. It's a growing product. More and more customers are requesting SAF and we're able to increase those quantities to them.

Speaker 1:

So I mean it would be safe to say that at the moment ABP is kind of European SAF player. Would it be safe to say Like in terms of production.

Speaker 2:

Yes, our two production sites are in Europe, um, and, and portion of that is driven by sort of the policy landscape that exists today, where there is mostly focused in europe, but we're also present with other activities in the value chain across the globe, so we're not limiting ourselves to europe, it's just, you know, those are the two current production sites and and we have most policy support and um that sort of drives customer demand to be situated mostly in Europe.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I mean so from a purely production perspective. So the question kind of follows is what kind of market do you see in Europe and, from a purely regulatory perspective, how do you see it developing, and what kind of challenges and opportunities do you see particularly emanating from the SAF mandate in Europe?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, no, I think that's a good question.

Speaker 2:

So just to recap where we are today today, we have three countries in Europe that have lending obligations for suppliers, and those are Norway, sweden and France, and we have two countries that have significant incentives or opt-in mandates for SAF, mainly the UK and the Netherlands.

Speaker 2:

Those are sort of five key markets that we're looking at, but there's other markets as well, so that's really where the activity in Europe is most built out really where the activity in Europe is most built out. In 2025, the EU countries, as well as the UK, will introduce a self-planning mandate across Europe, and that means that our activity will spread to a lot more countries. Based on that and that's really the big change from this to next year that there's a significant increase in the amount of countries that have policy support for SAF in place In addition to the mandates. We're also seeing the ETS incentivization mechanism kick in, and that also means that there's pricing support for customers in addition to the blending obligations for suppliers. So it's a really interesting market currently in Europe where a lot more activity is shaping up to be there in the next year compared to the last few years or even this year.

Speaker 1:

So interesting, I mean. So activity is going to shape up. We have regulations coming in, we have lending targets coming in, so is ABP gonna follow in terms of production, or do you have like projects in pipeline where you want to increase production?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we're constantly evaluating any production pathways and any production targets that we might have, but we're not limited to how we're going to get there. So our focus is to have the most sort of competitive solution for our customers, and that's what our customers want. And that might include co-processing from our refineries, which we think is very good solution to getting started early and timing wise and making sure those production facilities are closely linked to the existing jet fuel supply chain in order to effectively transport it to our customers. And that might include other solutions and we're planning to have more in this, but obviously, due to the nature of those projects, I can't really share too much here, unfortunately.

Speaker 1:

Absolutely, I understand. So I mean we discussed the opportunities that the regulations are placing and also the evolving landscape within Europe, as in all countries, kind of setting in blending targets. But what are some of the challenges that you see, especially with regards to the feedstock rules that are currently in place in Europe?

Speaker 2:

Yes, so some of the challenges around feedstocks are that the current waste and residue streams are, by sort of definition, limited and you wouldn't want to increase any process that that creates more waste.

Speaker 2:

So we're looking at opportunities to try to find additional feedstock pools that are increasing the availability of feedstocks to the south pool, and we've seen some really good developments in this space, mainly around cover crops.

Speaker 2:

We're a big proponent of cover crops as they are vital to scaling the feedstock pool for SAF.

Speaker 2:

Cover crops for those that don't know are crops that are grown primarily for the purpose of protecting and improving soil health, and they're grown between crop rotations improving soil health and then they're grown between crop rotations, so you're not increasing the amount of land that you're required to have for agricultural purposes, you're not competing with feed and food production and you have energy crops that are then being able to use to be used for biofuels production. Using cover crops is something that happens today as well, and the big improvement here is that those, those cover crops, can have additional benefits for for farming practices and, when you think about it, it's it's additional to the waste and residue stream, so it it adds feedstocks to the potentially constrained portfolio of feedstocks in the future and we've done a lot in this space. We have a strategic agreement with New Seed, for example, new Seed Carinata, which is a non-food cover crop and it produces lower carbon biofuel feedstock which we can independently certify and we can use that sustainable feedstock to produce SAF in the future.

Speaker 1:

Interesting. So I was recently going through Annex right, the EU issue, annex nine, and it has some interesting feedstocks, right. So it has alcohol. It is silly residues and waste, raw methanol. Non-food crops are severely degraded and are not suitable for food and food crops, right. So use annex nine. Kind of gives you feedstock which are not primarily food crops, right, they are all in silly crops which do not compete directly with food. So how do you see, like, why is there a need for, like, let's just say, inclusion of cover crops and not focusing on those which are already in their expense? What's the big difference here? What are we missing?

Speaker 2:

so I, you know, I I don't think it's a competition for who should be included or should be excluded, right? So the primary goal would be to include as many feedstocks as acceptable by sustainability standards to ensure that you have a good amount of feedstock to be used for the production of SAF and other biofuels. The EU has, next to what you've mentioned, also defined cover crops and the cover crops definition. If that weren't to be added to NX9, which is sort of the current process ongoing if that weren't to be added and be added in a different category, that could affect its eligibility to count towards some of the blending obligations. So it's important that those cover crops are in the right category of feedstock classification in order to be available for biofuels production, for SAF and other biofuels.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so let's move beyond biofuels. Let's say we discuss the second and third generation feedstocks. There are a lot of projects coming in online especially in Norway, I would say which are kind of planning to use CO2 or power to liquid. What does BP have plans to kind of move into that space as the mandates for that sub-PTL and other sub-mandates kind of kick in in the later stages? What's the plan for BP here to kind of go into that particular methodology to produce air?

Speaker 2:

Again. So I again, it's more around understanding the market demands and understanding how that leads to to different production of fuels we don't think it's an either or by fields and e-fuels. It's more of a and right. So what do I mean by this? There are really a good amount of synergies between the two.

Speaker 2:

Right, you wouldn't necessarily think about that primarily, but there's good ways of understanding producing biogenic fuels, producing synthetic fuels using green hydrogen, et cetera. A lot of that process has some overlap and that's important to have the flexibility to switch between those products to again make sure that the sustainable products that we sell fall into a price range that's affordable to customers as well. So we're supportive of looking at those additional technologies where we need to be able to use a broad range of them, of the technologies, and it's important for us to understand what the availabilities of those technologies are, what the price points are, and then to decide how best to use the available resources to produce the amount of SAF that that industry requires resources to produce the amount of SAF that that industry requires.

Speaker 1:

I mean, I understand at the moment there is a debate or there is kind of whatever you can, how much you can produce. That's the kind of discussion like that's the kind of stage that we have in the SAF industry right now. But I was looking at, let's say, a Japanese firm, aeneos Corporation. So in their annual statements, like in the first quarter, they said they want to target 50% of the domestic SAF market. They already have plans to develop SAF projects which are kind of looking at multiple pathways, let's say BTL, atj and then also HEFA as well. So they have laid out a plan wherein they want to kind of tackle the local demand and they're setting in, let's say, agreements in place wherein they want to kind of develop a significant supply base within their country and within also from the company perspective. So like where does abpc itself in the like in the staff space over the course of five to ten years? I mean not specifically target but kind of what are your long-term or short to medium term plans in the SAF market?

Speaker 2:

Again, it's mostly focused around making sure that we understand what our customers are requiring and then meeting that demand from our customers. We're really focused on making sure that we have the right amount of SAF and the right amount of each type of SAF, but that also means that we have sort of an open mind around what kinds of SAF are we procuring, buying, producing, and we want to be able to make good choices around exactly how that can benefit our customers and how that can benefit our SAF production in a way that's closely aligned with the targets that we're setting ourselves. We have plans for increased production. We have overall plans for increased production of biofuels, as BP and SAF will be a part of that right. So there's multiple ways you can look at that. You can look at upscaling currently commercially available technology, and we're a huge proponent of being able to upscale some of the co-processing that we're already doing, because we think there's a lot more potential in that, and that's something that can be done fairly quickly in terms of timings and should be fairly competitive on the market as well. And it sort of addresses some of the challenges that you have in other pathways, mainly around being central to your logistics infrastructure, having a good understanding around the outputs to customers, and that really should help in getting more SAF online quickly. But we're also looking at those longer-term projects right, but I think it's important to understand that there's a timing access to this right.

Speaker 2:

So, commercial technologies such as HAafa and coprocessing the technology is very much mature today.

Speaker 2:

It's already in use. There's still everyone's, or a lot of people are deploying solutions in this space, and then some of the other technologies that you've mentioned. There's still more learning to do. There might be pilot projects out there, but the commercialization is still ongoing and that's an important distinction to understand and there might be differences in the pace of adoption based on the developments in those technologies. So I it's um, for us it's difficult to to tell you exactly, okay, by by this date, this technology, this volume, um, because we think there's still a lot of um optimization in that process to to work can look slightly different than uh originally, uh envisioned, yeah, but it's it's absolutely true that there needs to be an expansion of the amount of SAF that you can produce. So what we're trying to focus is build new or enable more capacity through coprocessing, enable more feedstocks through the inclusion of cover crops and policy and that really boosts the availability of staff that will be able to place in the market interesting.

Speaker 1:

Um, so yeah, I mean. So airbp is a uk based company, right, I mean you don't have self production in the uk at the moment? I think philip 66 does have a half a based uh staff production unit in uk. Uh, they are the primary, I think one of the only suppliers in sap in uk, if I'm not wrong. Do you have plans to come into uk, especially after the mandate that has kicked in, like announced last week, and how do you see the uk market and what are bp's planned within this market?

Speaker 2:

So I think I mean, without going into the too much specifics here the UK market has two options for getting SAF into the country. One is production as you've mentioned, there's already a production site there but the other is import right. It's important to understand that in order, there's a difference between staff production and staff demand, meaning that there's sometimes better ways for the overall system to optimize if you have production at a different site than demand, and what we've seen in the uk is that the amount of staff that's supplied to the country is not coming from one production site right, so it's optimized by market participants to make sure that it's a competitive landscape, and that includes production but also imports, and in some other countries, that would then obviously include export right, and that might be because those other countries have advantage production sites. Other countries have advantage production sites, so they have different production sites. Um, and that, you know, might switch from time to time.

Speaker 2:

Um, really, the the focus, uh, we believe should be on on growing the entire portfolio and not focusing on on each sort of small yeah well, not, not small, but not focusing on geographic boundaries to say, in this boundary, you need to produce this much and demand this much, and that should always be the same. It's not how the sort of current jet system works, and we believe that sort of an open system where people can trade and optimize between the two will have good benefits for supply, availability and security, meaning a constant flow of product for the customers needs, and also to make sure that there's an optimized system in place that can deliver SAF at a competitive price.

Speaker 1:

SAF at a competitive price, interesting. So what are your first?

Speaker 2:

impressions of the UK SAF mandate. Well, we're happy that there is more detail on the UK SAF mandate. We're very supportive of policy support in Europe and UK and in other regions as well because we do believe that SAF needs that policy support in order to succeed in the market. It is a hard to abate sector and therefore we do believe that support is needed for for that industry to start up.

Speaker 2:

The UK mandate is based around an energy target as well as has a carbon intensity multiplier, and we think that's a good way to design a mandate, because it will benefit those fuels that have lower carbon intensity, meaning that the overall supply chain efficiency to deliver life cycle carbon savings is rewarded under the uk mandate, something that that's, for example, not the case in the refuel eu mandate. There are other things that, um, you know are different to the eu. Mandates are different to the EU mandates mainly that the UK focuses on limiting certain production pathways, so there's a heifer cap in place, meaning that a certain technology is limited from contributing to the mandate. Again, we think as a good flexibility across technologies and across feedstocks is needed to deliver a good outcome for our customers. So that is something that you could look at and understand if it can be improved in the future, but overall the very positive and supportive of the UK SAF mandate as a measure of supporting SAF uptake in the country.

Speaker 1:

It's interesting you mentioned the HFACAP. So I think, based off of my understanding, I think HFACAP is supposed to contribute 100% SAF for the next two years, once the mandate kicks in, and then, up until up until 2030, is still contributing 35 percent, even though they have a cap on that, still contributing 35 percent to the total uh sap production I mean like there is a 22 percent mandate but there's a sub mandate of seven percent, but if you look at the total sap production that is going to come in, have I still going to contribute 35 percent?

Speaker 1:

and and then you have this. Yeah, so my question would be like, if he is probably going to play a much larger lower in the uk sap production and it is going to play a much bigger role because of how the policy has been set out, how do you see see the production that you have a production pathway as a entry point for other players in the market to come in. Like this is a BP to kind of follow all the suit into the production property you guys have already are producing, I believe, a pathway staff in Germany or in France as well.

Speaker 1:

So let's see, how do you see that panning out in the future for ABP?

Speaker 2:

Yes, I think there's a couple of points here around. Initially, the policy had proposed a more stringent approach to Heifer CAP and that's been relaxed somewhat. And again, we're not saying that Hefa will be the technology to be used for every molecule of SAF until 2050. But the discussion there is around how do we make sure that there is competitive other SAF in the market that can be used and how do we support the startup of those other technologies? Right, and the UK approach is one of those where you're granting a certain range of the market to those production pathways. You're effectively reserving that to PTL or second generation SAF production pathways via a heifer cap, and that is one way to develop the industry.

Speaker 2:

The other way would be and they're doing this as well in a similar manner is to grant development grants or other monetary benefits to production facilities in the UK to develop those pathways. The sort of good policy outline that you need to understand is then okay, do we have enough support for those other pathways that they can flourish and they can get to a stage where they're equally or or nearly equally as competitive as as to have a pathway to to be able to compete in that market freely? Um, and I think the again going back to the timing access, that's sometimes very difficult to do because these other pathways aren't as commercially available yet, so you don't know all of the details that you would know for the HEPA and CoPro pathways around them and that makes it difficult to estimate what sort of cost they will run at and what sort of availabilities they will have. But overall, again, we're very supportive of the UK SAF mandate in terms of making sure that there's enough SAF in the market and rewarding those fuels that are having the largest lifecycle GHG impacts.

Speaker 1:

So you mentioned incentives there right in the policy to kind of support the other pathways to compete on terms of price with FI as well and in future, uh so, and Europe's mandate is significantly heavier on the 2G and 3G for speed stock, which are relatively austria, uh, compared, to have file as well. So what incentives? We understand there is a companies have to kind of make sure they have this blending fix which is kind of given out by Europe. But what incentives do you think currently are in place for European or UK-based companies who are looking to come into this space? What incentives do they have to offer?

Speaker 2:

Well, in Europe you have a EU ETS incentive which is available for airlines. It effectively gives airlines a relief on the price of SAF, meaning that if they fuel their planes with SAF, they get a certain percentage of the cost back in the form of ETS allowances. Bake back in the form of ETS allowances. That allows them to pass that saving down the chain and potentially bring up more pathways into that pool. There's also potential opportunities in other programs that are looking at the supply side of things, and those will be mostly based on getting grants and other things from national programs or European programs if you're in an advanced pathway. So anything from sort of a research grant to to grant for building up production capacity etc. There's probably support there as well, depending on on geography, and in the uk that's that's definitely being done, um, and you know we're looking forward to see how how that plays out and and how some of those companies can then play part in self production in the future yeah, so I just have a follow-up question on that.

Speaker 1:

So, as a european sap producer, how do you compare your incentives that are placed in europe compared, let's just say, those of north america and and you also mentioned imports, which are going to play a much larger role in the UK's SAF market, as it is in visage, in the policy as well, beyond the local production, imports are going to play a larger role. So how do you compare those incentives in the UK and US and how do you see that playing out in the future in terms of pricing within these two particular regions specifically?

Speaker 2:

Yes, so you know it's pretty. It's easy to see that there is a difference in approach between the US and Europe. Right, the US focuses heavily on getting the industry started via measure of incentives and trying to get the supply side to a case where you're able to offer a SAF at a level that's consistent with conventional jet fuel and therefore bridging that price gap to the customer of SAF. In Europe it's sort of the other way around, where you're requiring a certain volume of SAF to be placed in the market and then being forced, or then being able to pass that additional price premium to customers. There might be, or there likely will be, an overlap between volumes in the US and Europe just because the SAF market is likely following in the footsteps of the jet fuel market, being very connected internationally, so there could be impacts between the two. But some of the incentives in the US are also locked to any fuel that's consumed in the US and vice versa.

Speaker 2:

The mandates and blending obligations in Europe are locked to fuel that's consumed in Europe. So in some ways there's going to be some overlap. But not every incentive driven volume in the US will make its way to Europe. That's just a possibility for those producers to have additional options in Europe that a European producer wouldn't have, and that's very much the policy design in the US to incentivize local production, versus in Europe that's incentivizing local demand. They're effectively coming at this from slightly different angles, but both have the target of increasing SAF volumes. So both incentives and blending obligations are measures that are welcome to the industry because they will lead to higher volumes of SAF than you would have otherwise seen.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. So from a purely producer's perspective, let's say you have to choose between setting up a plant in Europe and, say, the US. What kind of pros and cons do both of these offer? Because incentives are in place and you have a mandate in place, you have an existing market in place in Europe, but you have those very good benefits in the US. How do you make that decision?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it's a very difficult run right and I think it depends a lot on your own internal outlooks on those things. The mandates in Europe are very long term, meaning that those rules are known now until 2050, which is still 25 and a half years away, which is a very good investment horizon. In the us, the the sort of short-term availability of incentives is very enticing. Um, however, the current sort of funding and structure is only available for a few more years. So it's you know, there's opportunities and drawbacks, both of those things and I think it will come down to individual companies understanding and interpretation of those rules to make that decision where to set up SAF production plans.

Speaker 1:

So let's make a pivot towards demand. So within Europe, we've seen a pivot to us demand. So within Europe, we've seen a lot of offtake agreements, a lot of commitments from airlines with who are like five to six years into NFID, they still have five to six years to go into FIDs. So what kind of demand are you seeing at the moment and how do you see this kind of shaping up in the future? Does ABP have an off-take agreement with an airline in place right now or are you looking at that revenue?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it's a good sort of shout, I think. Just for context, the total SAF industry has grown a lot over the past few years. Right, we've come from, I think, 2021 volume of less than 100 000 tons to 250 000 tons and 22 450 000 tons in 2023. All of these are sort of ayata estimates, uh, and, and you can really see the growth there right where we've we've more than tri, we've almost tripled and doubled in the past couple of years. That pace is likely to increase slightly into next year and and may taper off at some point, but the the industry is really growing a lot over the last few years from from a very small niche industry to more mainstream in some of the markets has really delivered a lot.

Speaker 2:

What we're now looking at is understanding that for the future. And again, the demand signals are there from mostly Northern America, and that includes Canada and the US as well as the European continent. They have sent very strong demand signals, but also from other geographies. So we've seen roadmaps in India, in the UAE, there's been SAF mandates in Singapore, introduced in a slightly different format. There have been current pricing mechanisms and other SAF obligations in Japan and Australia and Brazil and many other countries. So it's really a market that's developing rapidly and that's expanding rapidly, geographically as well as in terms of volume.

Speaker 1:

So I just have a final question and then. So there's a lot of. There's been a lot of discussion about sustainability, right? So the feedstock sustainability is one of the top most concern and we discussed in the beginning, as well as to why cover crops are should be part of the EU's Annex 9, and also why they should be part of the larger feedstock pool so that they can contribute more towards production.

Speaker 1:

What I'm trying to understand is so Heifer is probably going to take a lot of give a lot of supply to meet the demand that is going to come up in the first few years, and there is a lot of divergence between, say, us and Europe in terms of how they see feedstock, especially with regards to the alcohol debate, where everything has been tailored to fit into local needs as well. Just your thoughts on how can the industry ensure, how can the producers ensure, that feedstock sustainability is at the topmost priority, so that we don't follow the similar, we don't create another problem replacing the previous one? How do you see that, from an AIBP's perspective, to kind of ensure sustainability is at the forefront of whatever we do in?

Speaker 2:

the SAP industry, there's been a lot of effort by every regulator to make sure that the right incentives are in place.

Speaker 2:

Again, you're seeing this by the inclusion of the UK and EU to focus on waste and residue feedstocks and potentially allow cover crops in the future.

Speaker 2:

That's already excluding some other feedstock pools that the regulators felt like we shouldn't aim to increase. You're also seeing this in the US, where the SAF tax credit, or the clean fuels production credit, is targeting carbon intensity reduction by rewarding fuels that are lower carbon intensity higher than others. And also, on top of that you've mentioned, yes, there's some ethanol poised to go into some of those markets, but the way that they're getting that into that market is to make sure you have sustainable farming practices in place as well, right? So I think the sustainability aspect of this is at the forefront of every regulator's mind when they decide the specific SAF policies that are supporting the industry. So it's good to see that regulators are really thinking through all of the steps of the supply chain and are trying to make sure that we're getting to a place where sustainability of the feedstock production process and distribution is really at the core of that policy and making sure that the self-supply chains can be as sustainable as possible.

Speaker 1:

Wonderful. Thank you so much, glenn. Thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us and thank you for the informative answers as well. I'm sure listeners will learn a lot from your podcast, and thank you for taking the time.

Speaker 2:

Thank you very much, Fayaz. It was a pleasure to be here.