The SAF Podcast

FGE NexantECA - The building blocks for SAF project development

• SAF Investor • Season 4 • Episode 5

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This week's episode of The SAF Podcast sees Clive Gibson and Connie Lo from FGE NexantECA join Oscar.

This episode is a must listen if you want a blueprint of how to develop a SAF project, what separates investable SAF projects from optimistic slide decks.

Hot off the back of FGE NexantECA's feasibility study with Fathopes Energy completing. Clive breaks down feasibility as a set of parallel workstreams—commercial, technical, ESG, and funding—designed to converge on a real FID, not just a “bankable” buzzword.

Connie also highlights technologies that she is excited about and why strategically locating projects that align technology and feedstock is so vital. 

We also discuss the benefits of vertically integrating facilities, the requirements of ecosystem alignment are important to acceleration, and the need to address fragmented registries for transparent emissions reporting. 

We end by finding out where the exciting regions are for Clive and Connie (spoiler alert - there are a lot of them!) and what makes them so exciting. 

If you enjoyed this you can hear more from FGE NexantECA as Clive will be speaking at SAF Investor London, running on the 24th-25th February. He will be joining our panel looking at balancing regional and global development. 

We will also be joined by Clive's Colleague Mais Haddadin who will be moderating a panel on Governments crowding in capital with speakers from Austrade, Green Finance Institute, UK Export Finance and UK National Wealth Fund. 

Both should be fantastic discussions so, if you enjoyed the podcast join us in London. To find out more click here: https://www.safinvestor.com/event/148588/saf-investor-london-2026-2/

SPEAKER_02:

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Staff Podcast. This week, I'm very excited to be joined by Clive Gibson and Connie Lowe from FGE Nexant ECA, which sounds slightly like a chemical experiment, but I'm sure Clive and Connie will be able to explain a bit more about how that name came about. So first and foremost, Connie. Clive, thanks so much for joining you.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, thanks very much, Oscar. We're um absolutely delighted to have the opportunity to speak with you and uh share some uh messages and information with uh with your audience.

SPEAKER_02:

I'm sure there's going to be a lot of interesting and very valuable information that will come from our conversation today. But before we get into that, Clive, I'll start with you. Do you want to give everyone a sense of your background, how you ended up in your current role, and a bit of your career trajectory to date?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Oscar. Um, so I'm a chemical engineer by background and education. Um obtained my degree in the UK, uh, started my career with ExxonMobil at their refinery uh in the UK at Fawley. Uh that was a little over 30 years ago now, um, where I undertook a variety of commercial planning and operations roles. Um, and from there I took the step into industry-focused consulting. I actually joined a predecessor company of FGE, Next and ECA. I think some of your older listeners might hopefully remember Chem Systems from the 1990s. Um, I've got more than a quarter of a century uh of experience specializing really in crude oil, fuels, commodity chemicals, uh, and related infrastructure, covering a broad range of strategy studies, technical assessments, commercial evaluations, uh, due diligence type assignments covering project financing, uh, MA transaction support, uh, etc. Engagements in a little bit over 50 countries, um, pretty much a broad mix everywhere from multinational energy majors and chemical companies uh through to small project developers and a global range of financial institutions that have supported uh all of those companies along the way.

SPEAKER_02:

Do you have a favorite country out of those 50?

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, that's a that's that's a tough question. Uh, probably some least favorite countries, which I won't go on to mentioning here. Um, but uh there's been some good trips around the world and and some very unusual experiences. I think that's one of the beauties of consulting. Uh, you get to go and visit areas that you would probably never ever go to, and and Turkmenistan will always stand out as one, and there are plenty of others.

SPEAKER_02:

Connie, what about you? What's your career trajectory to date to give everyone a bit of an idea?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, hi, hi, Oscar. Thanks for having us here. I'm Connie, also from FGE Nexon ECA. I am based out of a Kuala Lumpur office, also a chemical engineer by background, and I've been working in the energy industry for over 13, 30 years, sorry, not 13, 30 years. The first 14 years, I was actually in the technology licensing and contracting side, providing technologies in the biofuels industry and oleochemicals industry. Then I moved on to consulting for the past, I would say, almost uh 17 years ago, where I've been with uh FGE, Nex and ECA since. Well, over the course of my consulting career, I've supported a wide range of renewable fuels and biofuels assignments from first generation biofuels such as the biodiesel, bioethanol, through to advanced second generation biofuels which do not compete with food supply. And more recently, my work has focused heavily also on SAF, as well as other forms of low-carbon fuels, including green hydrogen, green ammonia, biomethane projects.

SPEAKER_02:

Awesome. So, Clive, tell us about FG, Nexon, ECA's expertise in SAF, because there are lots of consultants in across multiple fields and especially in renewables. So, where does your guys' expertise lie within sustainable aviation fuel?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, so so maybe I can just start off with a little bit of a background on FGE and Nexant ECA and how did we get to that company? So um FG Next and ECA was formed as a merger in 2025 between FGE and Nexant ECA. Um, two companies which have been present in the energy and chemical sector for several decades. So FGE was founded in the 1980s by Faradun Feshiraki, which I think some of your listeners may be very familiar with. Um, Nexant ECA was formed in the 1960s. Um, and they have a very complementary but different set of skills that was highly synergistic when the two companies were put together. So FGE, very much a focus on market intelligence across the oil and gas, NGLs, LNG, um, and fuel sectors, um, and obviously increasingly moving into uh the renewable fuel sector. Um, next and ECA, a primary focus on consulting across the energy and chemical space, covering technical, commercial, economic, strategic, uh, and even environmental and social aspects of the business. Um, when you put the combination of the two together, um, which was basically set up through funding provided by a private equity firm called TA Associates, um, each of the two companies basically doubled in size. Um, and and we offer a very complementary set of market intelligence, data insights, and industry-focused strategic consulting elements across the entire energy and chemical space. Um, now, obviously, as we've uh supported clients over the last five, 10, 15 years, we've seen a lot of increasing interest in renewable fuels. Um, I remember doing studies 20 years ago, which was looking at biodiesel, um, looking at ethanol, etc. Um, but the interest from our clients has obviously moved forward in leaps and bounds uh in in recent years, and that's driven uh by a combination of policy and regulation um and other drivers uh which are causing uh many of our industrial clients to focus more on more on decarbonisation and sustainability drivers. And SAFIL is obviously part of that for the aviation industry. Um the aviation industry is faced with some unique challenges about how it can decarbonize, and sustainable aviation fuel is um the most straightforward, prevalent um opportunity today to help facilitate that. Um so our activities in SAF really embrace everything I've just described from our company expertise, um, whether it comes from market intelligence, uh, data and insights, or whether it comes from our bespoke consulting value proposition to our clients, which is covering technical, commercial, ENS related offerings, strategic offerings across the SAF space, driving into financing projects, uh, providing technical, commercial, environmental, and social due diligence, uh, both at the project's initial outset and then through the project execution stages and all the way through into testing and successful operations. Uh so we provide near-term, long-term market outlooks covering policy and regulation, demand, supply, trade, pricing, profitability. And that looks at both SAF and its feedstocks. Um, we've got deep knowledge of the technologies, um, both those that are in play today and under development. Um the relative competitiveness based on technology type, feedstock type, location, scale, et cetera. Um, and that's all underpinned by some really deep and extensive relationships with some of the technology licensors who often bring us in to support their own clients by providing independent opinion and objectivity on some of the solutions which they might be evaluating. Um and obviously we support project developers across then that entire project cycle, right? So um, you know, whether it's technology choices, whether it's reviews of capital costs, schedules, project execution strategy, operating strategies, and it goes all the way down into third-party interfaces and then you know the fairly detailed legalized third-party agreements that are necessary to move forward and actually implement those projects. So um it really is um you know across the value chain of the industry with an extremely wide variety um of clients and industry participants.

SPEAKER_02:

I really enjoyed that you managed to get straightforward and saf into the same sentence in that.

SPEAKER_01:

We we try to make it straightforward with our clients, but uh, I'm sure, as you know and and your listeners will know, that there are a lot of complexities, which is great um from a consulting perspective, right? That's where we can add value.

SPEAKER_02:

Absolutely. So, Connie, Clive has just outlined the extraordinary breadth of engagement that FG, Next, and ECA's got across SAF and other industries as well. So, through that, what trends within the industry have you seen emerging recently through all the work and engagement you've been doing in sustainable aviation fuel?

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, as uh Clive has mentioned, we've been supporting numerous CEF projects from delivering visibility studies, looking at various key elements throughout the project development cycle, from feedstock sourcing to execution and actual construction in our role as lender's advisor, whether we're doing a due diligent commercial, technical, environmental, or social. There are several key trends we have noticed emerging across the saf industry. First, most SAF production today, as your audience might be aware, is based on the HEFA pathway, which stands for hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids. This is currently the most widely recognized and well-established saf production route. HIFA saf is typically produced from lipid-based feedstocks, right, like the used cooking oil, animal fats, and other waste soils and greases. What we are seeing now is a growing recognition that these waste-based feedstocks are limited. And for this reason, discussions have moved away from whether the HIFA technology works because it's already proven in commercial scale, and the discussions now more concerning towards whether there is sufficient sustainable feedstock supply to support large-scale development. Most projects being developed today are probably in the capacity of, say, 100,000 tons per year to 300,000 tons per year, and increasingly projects are being assessed based on the credibility or the robustness of their feedstock sourcing strategy. What are the feedstock diversification plans, and whether the feedstock can be certified or accepted under international schemes such as CORCIA or ISCC. This has also led to more developers exploring alternative feedstock beyond the traditional cooking oil. So, what we're seeing is an increasing interest in options such as camelina, pomgomia, algae oil, chicken fat, and in this region, byproducts from the palm industry like palm oil meal, affluent and spent bleaching earth oil. But that said, the key challenge still remains the credibility of these sourcing strategies, particularly whether sufficient volumes can be secured, whether the cultivation or collection practices can be scaled sustainably, and whether these feedstocks can be produced at a cost that remains competitive, right? And in parallel, given the limitations of life-based feedstocks, we are also seeing an increasing interest in alternative saf production pathways, particularly in alcohol to jet, whether it's ethanol to jet, ETJ, or methanol to JET MTJ. Ethanol to JET is especially relevant in countries where ethanol is widely available in this region. It could be Thailand from the sugarcane molasses, or also through imports from major ethanol producers such as Brazil and the US. One other area we observe in CEF projects is that those which demonstrate vertical integration within the feedstock supply chain, such as having strong upstream access to feedstock sources, are generally viewed more favorably. And here I'll bring the example of some of the projects we're involved with, such as the SEFPO project in Pakistan and recently the announced Fat Hopes project in Malaysia. They are good examples where developers are building strong integration across the value chain. We're also seeing a growing preference for SAF projects that can leverage existing infrastructure, such as integration with refineries through co-processing, utilizing shared utilities in an industrial park, or established logistics and blending assets. This type of projects often have clearer execution pathways and potentially lower capital intensity.

SPEAKER_02:

Amazing. So Clive, Connie's just mentioned some of the uh trends that you guys are seeing in the industry and mentioned certain pathways that are sort of ones to watch and the region and the areas they are they should be watched very carefully. What do you think are fundamentals that producers need to have in place, particularly at the feasibility stage? I know Connie just mentioned the Fat Hopes Energy project where you guys were involved in the the feasibility study. So what do producers need? What are the the crucial elements that actually make will make projects successful?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I mean the feasibility stage is in many ways really the start of the journey, right? So you've you've got to put the foundations in place um to make sure that you've got a robust project um to move forward from. And so feasibility, um I think firstly we've got to define what we really mean by feasibility stage, right? You've got initial scoping, you've got pre-feasibility, you've got full feasibility, and kind of as you move along that that journey, you're getting increasingly detailed and increasingly focused, having ruled out a number of options or alternatives and gradually narrowing things down such that, I mean, ultimately, what's the purpose of a feasibility? It's to reach a final investment decision, right? So having evaluated all the possible options, um, you've defined your most feasible, most economic um option that can then move forward into the implementation phase. Um so you know, one term I kind of really don't like to hear is bankable feasibility study. I mean, what what is truly a bankable feasibility study? I I look at it as being um a multiple uh set of different work streams that ultimately have to be completed. It's not a single study. Um, and and ultimately the project developer, the project owner has to bring all of that together into a package uh which can then be reviewed in detail and is implementable. So, you know, you're looking at the commercial elements around feedstock and product, you'll look at the technology uh elements, you'll be looking at the you know, increasingly importantly, the environmental and social elements across the entire value chain. Uh you're looking at the site location, um, you're looking at the organization structure, um, who's going to be building this, who's going to be operating it, um, and equally critically, the funding plan, right? If you haven't got access to the funds, then um you know you're not going to be able to implement your project, no matter how well considered and conceived uh it is. So it's really a multiple um set of facets which are required um all to be packaged together um in order to take it to the next step, which is then to move into the project implementation stage.

SPEAKER_02:

Is are there that many steps just because consultants like multiple steps to just keep the stay around just to hang around? Or am I being unfair?

SPEAKER_01:

Absolutely not. I mean, I mean, I don't think you have to have multiple steps, but there are multiple work streams which can be worked in parallel, right? And and any project owner, project developer will will recognize that. Um, the extent to which uh you run some of those work streams sequentially rather than in parallel and can can depend on your level of experience and how confident you are with the solution that you're moving towards. Um, if you've already got a very clear vision, you've already got a very clear strategy, um, you're highly experienced in uh implementing projects successfully, familiar in the renewable fuel sector, then you're gonna move more quickly uh and in a more streamlined manner than somebody who is coming into this as um, you know, a new a new entrant.

SPEAKER_02:

Yeah. So moving on from the early sort of feasibility stage, what are the key success factors, maybe slightly further down the line, that developers should be considering when working on their projects and potentially where are the areas where that are causing things to stall or have projects cancelled where these sort of these successful critical elements aren't necessarily in place.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah. So so I mean it's interesting. There's a lot of commonalities with investments across the energy and chemical space, right? So you can define a key set of success factors which are really must-haves, which apply equally to SAF as other major investments. We're talking about investing hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars here, right? There's certain things you have to do. Um, there's also some other things that are unique to SAF, right? So, so so let's step through it a little bit. And yeah, the first thing I would say distinguishing, let's say, successful project developers from unsuccessful project developers is having a very clear vision and a very clear strategy at the outset of what you want to do, how are you going to get there, and therefore what do you need to do? And and and again, so immediately within the SAF sector, um, one of the characteristics is we see a lot of new entrants, a lot of new project developers, right now, the ability to put all of the jigsaw pieces in place to actually get yourself to a project which can be implemented, um there there are vast differences in those which are successful and those which are not, right? And when we are seeing projects fall by the wayside and we're seeing some projects move forward relatively quickly, and and ultimately really does depend on that vision and that strategy at the outset and how how closely you can stick to it and and put all those those pieces together. Um what I would say when I when I look at SAF per se is probably feedstock, feedstock, feedstock.

SPEAKER_02:

You should get that on a t-shirt.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, absolutely, right. Um, you know, you buy a house, you talk about location, location, location, right? You talk about a SAF project. There are a lot of other elements, but feedstock, feedstock, feedstock, right? If you haven't got the feedstock, if you haven't got a secure source of feedstock, um, and you haven't got um availability on a long-term basis, your project will not be successful. Um, and and that's what we always say to to clients who are very familiar in crude oil fuels components. Commodity chemicals markets, yeah. This is not about being able to go to Saudi Arabia and tapping into a hundred years of reserves of feedstock and getting a long-term guaranteed source of supply that turns up at your gate every 10 days. Um, with very limited risk of um of shortage. Um, this is a very fragmented supply chain. Uh, and even if you've got long-term supply agreements in place, you have to be cognizant of where might that value chain break down and why might it break down when ultimately you're dealing with mum and put businesses at some point in that chain, right? So feedstock is absolutely critical. Um technology, uh, if we talk about HIFA, Connie mentioned HIFA before. We're we're involved in HIFA projects all around the world, right? Southeast Asia, South Asia, Middle East, South America, US. Um, and they're right in the implementation phase now, or even in operations phases in some cases. Um, and and that reflects the technology is commercially proven. It's been demonstrated um there is a viable economic route to deploy HIFA technology successfully and get SAF to market. Yeah. So, in from that perspective, technology is not a key success factor and that is a major risk at this point. But if you step into some of the other technologies, the key concern on HIFA is how much feedstock is there going to be and when are we going to start heading limits? So that's when you've got to look at some of these alternatives, which is alcohol to jet, e-fuels, etc. And that's where there are challenges about technology deployment and the extent to which they've been commercialized. And so that brings a whole different risk profile and risk appetite to funding. And you know, successfully demonstrating those technologies is ultimately really going to be a key success factor moving forward to wider deployment and particularly how the economics stand up going forward. Product offtake, again, I'll dip into another phrase which would would be I think build it and they will come, right? So if you can build a project and you can demonstrate credibility in the current environment with policy, with regulation as it is, and the demand outlook for SAF going forward, you should have off-takers at your door. Um, now you need to be careful and obviously devise a um commercially sound off-take arrangement, um, but actually placing the SAF should not be a major issue. The pricing risk between the SAF and the feedstock is a consideration that you have to address, and that's driven fundamentally by your project economics, so your CapEx, your technology, etc. Right. So when you look across those pieces, I'm I'm looking at you're making sure you've got sound product offtake, making sure you've got a commercialized technology, and then coming back to feedstock, feedstock, feedstock vision and strategy. The other elements really are much more typical of other projects, right? So having a clear execution strategy, who's who's going to be your EPC providers, how are you going to execute, what's your organization plan? Have you got a uh you know an experienced project team that knows how to build a project and then knows how to operate a project successfully? Um, making sure you've got a sound funding plan in place, both covering the equity side and covering uh debt side, if that's the route you're going as well. And then, of course, I have to say, you know, making sure you've got a sound set of advisors who've got experience in doing this, and that covers legal, it covers financial, it covers technical, commercial, and ENS. And hopefully, um, you know, many of your listeners who are developing these projects are going to be using FGE, next, and ECA in a number of those areas around the technical commercial ENS piece.

SPEAKER_02:

I it only took 20 minutes for you to get a plug-in for people to use FGE next and ECA, so that's pretty good going. I would, however, on one point disagree with you. I agree with basically everything you just said, and I think they're all excellent fundamentals. The only thing I disagree with is the lack of heifer feedstock because I'm we're running a campaign to get everyone to eat more fish and chips and deep fried Mars bars um to keep the heifer feedstock level going. And by all accounts, that's go really well. So I don't think we have to worry about heifer feedstock levels anytime soon. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01:

I I've just flew back in from Pakistan overnight, and uh, I can confirm in Pakistan they've got plenty of uh used cooking oil. It's all the fish and chips these it's not it's not quite fish and chips, they've got some fantastic cuisine there. Uh it's very oil-heavy, and they're producing a lot of used cooking oil.

SPEAKER_02:

That is that is very good to hear. So everyone embrace fish and chips for deep fried Mars bars, and I'm not overly familiar with Pakistan cuisine, but any cuisine using a lot of cooking oil, I think we can um get behind for the heifer feedstock.

SPEAKER_01:

Fried chicken, fried chicken will be good as well, right?

SPEAKER_02:

Fried chicken would be good. Although I'm starting to think at all these greasy foods that there might be mild health um knock-on effects, but you know, we could probably work around those. Um, Connie, just coming back to you. Clive's mentioned so many different stakeholders and so many critical elements to getting projects successfully implemented. Is there enough collaboration across all those stakeholders? We mentioned the finance, the off-takers, the feed stock providers, the technology licenses, the lawyers, the expert advisors to actually build an ecosystem where production can really accelerate. Because over the last year, there has been a sense that production levels are slowing or not accelerating at the levels that were potentially expected.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, thanks, Oscar. I think I would say that we are seeing encouraging progress in collaboration across the SAF industry. But I think overall it is still not sufficient yet to build the kind of fully integrated ecosystem needed to scale SAF production quickly, as you have mentioned. If we start with the feedstock, yeah, the collection and aggregation, pre-processing, logistics and certification, they are sometimes handled by different parties operating independently and at relatively small scale. And that said, we are seeing some positive developments. For example, those two companies we're working with, SEFCO in Pakistan, as Clive mentioned, he just came back from, and Fat Hopes Energy in Malaysia. Both of these companies have strong experience in feedstock management and are continuously strengthening their feedstock aggregation networks. Then, if we move on from feedstock into production, many CEF developers are also working closely with the refiners, the fuel suppliers, and industrial partners to structure projects that can progress through feasibility and financing. Because I think most projects that could demonstrate vertical integration, as Clive had mentioned, secure long-term feedstock and off-tick agreements tend to progress faster because they can show stronger execution readiness, right? And as an example here, where I come from in Malaysia, you might have heard of the announcement of the CEF project developed jointly between Petronas, ENI, and UDENA. In this ecosystem, we see that patronas would offer perhaps their operational experience and knowledge in the site area in South Malaysia and Johor State, having developed their integrated refinery and petrochemical facility within that area. And I would say we at FG Nexan ECA are also the lender's technical advisor for that large integrated refinery and pet can complex. But ENI in this area brings its technology, experience in running biorefineries, and potential access to the Western European market. And then there's the Japanese counterpart, Ucleaner. Ucleaner's RD and micro-algae could potentially add algae oil in the feedstock pool and access to Japanese market as well. This is one example of how collaboration between different stakeholders could each bring its own wealth of experience to the project area. Another area I think that requires stronger collaboration is in the certification and sustainability frameworks. For SAF projects to succeed, the project needs clear traceability systems, chain of custody requirements, eligibility under different frameworks. What we see today is that the certification rules differ, perhaps across different jurisdictions, and aligning feedstock sustainability, documentation, lifecycle, emissions accounting, and the auditing requirements are hugely complex today. So overall, I think I would say that collaboration is improving, and there are strong examples across the supply chain. But to truly accelerate SAF production, the industry needs deeper and a more structured end-to-end collaboration. I think particularly around the feedstock systems, the certification alignment, and practical mechanisms to scale real, I guess, SAF use.

SPEAKER_02:

One of the complaints that I hear a lot is that the interoperability of SAF registries is not potentially at the point which is most helpful. It talks about that transparency and that eligibility piece with particularly this these registries having there's lots of registries that have popped up, which is great for transparency, but you can't necessarily map them onto each other as easily as you could do. And I'm under the impression there is a lot of work going on to improve that, to accelerate things.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, that there really needs a harmonization of standards in terms of the carbon accounting, the greenhouse gas emissions, to you know how you verify the uh feedstock, say sustainable, you know, and every each of these individual components, it may have different uh sustainability requirements. And again, like I said, you know, it depends on different jurisdictions. The EU has one method, the US obviously has opened up in a different way today, and and in Asia is still in progression, I guess. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02:

So who can drive that aspect of sort of ecosystem developers? Is it the independent registries working together? Is it more a government or alignment in terms of what's eligible, or how how do you achieve that alignment if you're talking specifically about the eligibility and of SAFs across the world?

SPEAKER_00:

I think that's a very good question. Everyone's asking that. But obviously, I think governments first comes play a hugely important role, right? And and then you would have also the governments might set certain policies and certain requirements, but of course, they need to be in sync with, say, the standardization for the fuel companies as well as the airline engine manufacturers, right? And and this is for the uh end use, and then we need to see, you know, all the way back traceability, all the way back to the feedstock supply. So, you know, I think governments certainly play an important role, including obviously the producers and the end users.

SPEAKER_02:

Clive, I want to take this ecosystem piece and move it on to a word that gets thrown around a lot. And I think if you had Saf Bingo, if you didn't have this on your card, uh you'd probably not do very well as risk. So are we in a situation where we're talking about different risks? We've got pricing risk, we've got technology risk, we've got um various financial risks from an investor's point of view, that different stakeholders and requirements different stakeholders have in terms of balancing that risk across the ecosystem of partners that are involved in projects not necessarily being able to be balanced in a way that allows projects to move through financing rounds or to just move through development rounds.

SPEAKER_01:

I think as we've touched on earlier, um it cut it comes down to the inherent risk characteristics of the individual project. Um as you've said, you know, you've got regulatory and policy risk, you've got pricing risk, you've got technology risk, you've got volume risk, and then you've got the standard project execution risks as as well, right? Um at the end of the day, it comes down to economics, doesn't it? Right, it's it is all about the money. Um, and and if you can devise a project which you believe is financially robust um and is commercially and operationally robust um as a result of that, uh, then you should be able to progress a well-defined, well-organized project. And I think that's what we're seeing today. You know, we've we're involved in a number of HIFA-based projects around the world. Some of them are operating, some of them are in construction, some of them are very close to financial close, and look out for some announcements coming shortly, hopefully, right, on more projects securing project financing. Um, and others are in the feasibility stage, right? But if you look at HIFA-backed projects, if you've if you've taken a proven technology, you've got a good location and you've got the feedstock, we're we're seeing those projects moving forward. Because even with elements of policy and regulatory risk and pricing risk, there is enough confidence there that the projects are financially sound and robust today, right? That's that's a general, I think it's fair to say that's a general industry consensus, right? Yeah, once once you move down to some of the you know more evolutionary technologies, alcohol to jet, e-fuels, that's that's where we're seeing projects getting stuck or projects progressing much more slowly. Um and it again it does, as you said, it comes back to the risk, but but fundamentally it's coming back to the financial economic risk, um, which which is related to the technology and the technology risk and the and the underlying uh production cost economics compared to the prices that that might be out there in the market, right? And um, those factors absolutely need to be addressed uh if we are going to see the needed development of those technologies in order to get to where the industry is striving to be, let's say in the 2040s and and by 2050, and in terms of the the proportion of decarbonisation that the industry is striving for.

SPEAKER_02:

Connie, on the evolution of technology piece, what are the what are those challenges and the things that new technologies that are being developed need to overcome in order to accelerate, become you know commercially viable, get through the different stages, get to commercial operations, and actually build a wider portfolio of SAF pathways that can contribute to the growing requirement that will be needed, as Clive mentioned, towards the 2030s, 2040s.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, Oscar, I think to answer this, it's useful to understand the different SAF production pathways there are today. We've talked a lot about HIFA, and it's um the most of SAF produced today comes from HIFA, mainly because it's the most competitive pathway, technologies mature, supply chains for use, cooking oil, and waste fats already exist to a certain extent. What we see is a growing interest, like I said, from non-HIFA pathways, because obviously there's only finite quantities of waste oils, and HIFA alone will not be able to meet long-term CEF demand. The one pathway I mentioned earlier was the alcohol to jet, to which we talked about already. It's particularly interesting in markets with abundant and cost-competitive ethanol, because that would be the feedstock to produce the Ceph. US, Brazil, Thailand would be able to leverage the existing biofuels industry as well. And they have do have the feedstock in ethanol. But so far, there's only one commercial scale ATJ alcohol to jet plant, which is the one facility in the US. It's a first commercial scale ethanol-to-jet plant, but only producing around, I think, 30,000 tons per year of saving renewable diesel, right? Although there are probably some announcements of some projects in development, but none of them are really in operation yet, other than this one. If we look longer term, there is the biomass gasification fissure trops, or we call it BGFT in short. This is promising because it opens up a much broader range of feedstock, which you could look at, you know, biomass, including forestry residues, agricultural waste, and even municipal solid waste. But the key challenge is that these projects are highly capital intensive and involves a complex integration of across multiple processing units. That's the challenge. And there's also challenges with the feedstock variability, the quality consistency, all this could be an issue. Further technology advancement and scale-up experience would definitely be needed to improve the performance and demonstrate it could be operating at scale, as well as reducing the overall project KPEx and production cost. Finally, there's also the other pathway you might have heard of, which is called Power to Liquids or ESAP, which is based on utilizing green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity and sourcing of carbon dioxide either through carbon capture or biogenic sources. Now, this production pathway is in development. It is probably the highest cost of production today compared to the other three pathways I mentioned. And it's mainly due to the high renewable electricity cost and also it's very highly capital intensive. But we believe that as technology advances, we would expect the cost to come down. But this could take some years before this actually materialize.

SPEAKER_02:

We've covered quite a lot of the fundamentals around what SAF projects need to have in place in order to get developed and get commercially producing. We've talked a lot of the uh challenges and ways around solving these challenges in order to get production off the ground. I wanted to end by asking both of you whether there's some regions that you're particularly more optimistic about than others, and what those regions are, and why potentially things in those regions are going right sort of well. I'm gonna hedge this beginning by saying both of you are based in Asia. So just to let everyone know, that is the the background that you are making these claims from. So, Clive, we'll start with you. What what are some regions that you're particularly optimistic about and why?

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, so just let me caveat that, right? Based in Asia, but this is a global industry, right? So we're very true. We're seeing a number of investments in Asia, um, which fundamentally are targeting European markets because that is the market which is leading from a policy and and regulatory point of view. Um, as of now, we're really starting to see uh Asian policy and regulation starting to move. Um, you know, we've got Singapore, um, we've got other countries, Thailand, Japan, Malaysia, etc., all making announcements or intentions uh to implement SAF mandates. So Asia is going to move forward, but um, for those investing in Asia, they've been really starting off targeting um the European market. Um when we look elsewhere, you know, we're active um in Middle East uh and even Africa. Um, again, you know, this is this is a feedstock play to an extent, right? That if there is feedstock available, um then uh there is a basis potentially to look at implementing a project. But in those areas, there may be some SAF being supplied within the region, but again. It's looking at targeting the European market because everybody recognises that based on the policy and the regulations that are in place now, there is a significant requirement for demand uptake going forward, and that is going to need a lot of supply, additional supply going forward to meet it. From my perspective, you know, I think the US obviously has been dampened in recent years, and that's based primarily around sustainability policies and a view moving forward in terms of whilst there might be opportunities domestically, if you're looking at importing feedstock or importing product, then it may not be the most viable market, or let's say there may be greater risks, at least in the current in business environment, for targeting those markets. So that's how I would see it. You know, we are looking at a lot of opportunities. We're involved in a lot of opportunities in Asia. Um, but we're also, you know, globally we we are involved in projects in the Middle East and the Americas for HIFA. Um and uh on a more global basis, we are looking at e-fuels and we're looking at um alcohol to jet, depending really on which direction policy and regulation is driving you in each of those regions.

SPEAKER_02:

Connie, I think the only region Clive didn't mention there was Latin America or Antarctica. We're big fans of Antarctica. Anyone that listens to this podcast religiously will know huge Antarctica fans. So are you are you gonna say those guys are exciting, or are you gonna agree with Clive's?

SPEAKER_00:

I think I pretty much agree with Clive. I think APAC region has a number of natural advantages, obviously proximity to feedstocks like in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, or even strong port and logistics connectivity like in Singapore. Many of these countries have established biodiesel industries, which means they have the supply chain knowledge and experience already exists. Singapore is positioning itself as a regional SAF hub, while Malaysia and Indonesia has significant potential in terms of biomass, palm-based residues. Thailand, as I mentioned earlier, with a strong ethanol base, which could support alternative pathways. There's also Australia, you can throw that in the bucket, where there are plans to produce via the ethanol route, looking at various uh biomass produced that are available in that country. I think the key difference compared to, say, Europe, for example, is that uh aside from Korea, most of the countries in APEC have set some form of targets, but they are not binding mandates here. But I see obviously, you know, momentum is building because governments here start to view SAT not only as a way to decarbonize, but obviously as a strategic economic opportunity, I think.

SPEAKER_02:

Disappointed Antarctica didn't come up again. I'm gonna keep playing this drum until we get a project down there.

SPEAKER_01:

Um and Oscar, I'm gonna put a shout out for South America, right? We're we're active down there. Um, I think we might be seeing some announcements soon, right? So um we're we're not ruling that out by any means. I I think as Connie touched on, right? I mean, you know, this is all about feedstock collection infrastructure, right? Yeah, um so so if that's in place, you know, that's that's one of the critical enablers here.

SPEAKER_02:

Yeah, absolutely. And I th that's actually a very nice segue. Uh if you've enjoyed the conversation we've had today, we're very fortunate to have Clive will be coming and joining us at our South Investor London conference on the 24th and 25th of February. When this comes out, it'll be next week. And he's going to be speaking on our panel looking at balancing regional versus global development. So you'll get a chance to hear in more detail all these different regions, what they need to respectively grow their production levels. And unfortunately, Connie will not be joining us, but Clive's colleague Mace Haddadin will be joining us to talk about how governments can work on crowding in capital to help accelerate production and the crucial role that they've got in facilitating private investment into SAF projects around the world, not just in the UK, but around the world. So, Clive, we look very much forward to seeing you there. And thank you to yourself and to Connie for this great discussion around all these fundamental aspects and how you see projects moving through these stages and getting to production.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, thanks, Oscar. So, I mean, really looking forward to uh a SAF Investor event in London in a couple of weeks. I think it's a great opportunity to bring together a wide variety of industry participants. Um, I've not attended one of these in in London, uh obviously been to lots of events in Asia. They're always very productive, they're very interesting. Um, a lot of uh different views, different outlooks on how the industry will evolve and and and what's required. Um so I've been genuinely excited to be there. Um, look forward to meeting you as well. Maybe have some fish and chips, right?

SPEAKER_02:

Absolutely. It'll be it'll be a shame not to. And I think, like you mentioned, it's you've we've talked about the ecosystem. These are the places where you can build the relationships to really get the ecosystem in the same place, get all the stakeholders aligned to really push SAF investment and production forward. So look very much forward to meeting you in person there. Thanks so much, guys. That was that was an excellent discussion.

SPEAKER_00:

Thanks, Oscar. As I said in Japan, they have this promotion called Fry for Flight. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02:

That's a great note to end. Thanks, guys.