Mikala Grubb, Topsoe: The 100th episode and tech behind a third of the world's SAF

For the 100th episode of The SAF Podcast, we're joined by Mikala Grubb, Senior Vice President of Technologies, Topsoe — one of the world's leading catalysis and technology companies, whose technology produces an estimated third of all the SAF available globally today.

We start with feedstocks — why the constraints on used cooking oil and animal fats are tightening, what a post-2030 feedstock crunch could look like, and which next-generation feedstock options (from intermediate crops and municipal solid waste to tire-derived feedstocks) are genuinely gaining traction versus those still some way from commercial reality.

We then turn to technology: how Topsoe's HydroFlex HEFA technology became the commercial backbone of today's SAF industry, the role co-processing can play as a pragmatic stepping stone, and why Mikala's advice to developers facing ASTM certification delays is simple — start with renewable diesel and switch when certified. We also explore the ESAF pathway, the importance of the Topsoe-DLR-Sasol demonstration plant currently under construction, and why Topsoe is ready to sign full commercial-scale ESAF contracts today.

Throughout, a clear theme emerges: successful SAF projects are built on feedstock security, offtake certainty, the right partner ecosystem, and a willingness to be pragmatic. 

Happy 100th, The SAF Podcast. Thank you to all the guests we have had over the last 100 episodes and to everyone that has listened!

Transcript

The 100th Episode Kickoff

0:11

Hello and welcome to this very exciting episode of the Staff Podcast. We've done it. We've made it to a hundred episodes. The Staff Podcast turns 100 today. The only, I think it's the only dedicated staff podcast on the internet. Michaela's got a a podcasting background too, is with me for this episode as well, but I think she covers they cover slightly wider. Have a slightly wider remit than we do. So I suppose I'm gonna wish the staff podcast happy hundredth. We're gonna call it a birthday. Michaela, thanks very much for joining us for the 100th episode. How are you doing? I'm doing great and feeling very honored. So first of all, congratulations on reaching 100 episodes. That's amazing. Well done. Uh that's uh completely amazing. Uh it's been a journey. I feel very honored. I feel very honored being uh being part of that. I I I think you should, and I'm we're delighted to have you for our for our hundredth episode. I I would like to say we're going to do something really special for this episode, but we every episode's special, so we don't need to. So we're just gonna continue. So we're not gonna sing happy birthday. That's okay with me. We we might do it at the end. We might sing happy birthday at the end. We'll save that, save that for last. So yes, Michaela, you're from Topso, you're the second person from Topso we've had on the podcast. We had what we had Sylvan Verdier very early in the our podcasting days. Yeah. Um so we like to start just by a bit of background, and I did a bit of digging on LinkedIn into your background, and you have spent a very long time at Topso, straight out of university, you did a PhD, and the words in your PhD title I couldn't

Why She Stayed At Topsoe

2:15

understand, couldn't read, let alone understand what it was about. It was so far above my chemical, engineering, technical capacity. So instead of asking what I normally do about how people end up in their current position, I want to ask you why you've been at Topso for as long as you have been. What's kept you at the company for such a long time? Yeah, and and the long time is 19 years. So uh and and it's a very good question. And uh and by the way, when I look back at my PSC, I was like, wow, I was clever back then. Um but I still have a copy, so uh sometimes look at it. Now, uh why so long at Topsu? It is actually because uh Topsuit is a great company, uh, great colleagues. And I think my journey in Topsuite has been I came from a PhD, researching, being in the lab. I got a position at Topsu and uh where I did catalyst development upscaling in within the hydroparsing space, figuring out how understanding our catalysts even better, even doing like microscopy on it, working with a lot of talented people. Loved it. Did test productions at our facilities, and it's quite amazing seeing a product going from the lab to the ton scale when you have like your first product, it's uh it's amazing. Uh and loved that, did that for six years, and uh and when I returned from my second maternity leave, I was like, okay, I I got a bit itchy feet, and I had very good leaders who saw that. And uh it turned out that there was an open position in business development. So I I went to the business development part, which was sort of an incubated uh unit where we looked at all kinds of what could we do business in. And I got a number of projects and uh became responsible for those. And one of them was called upgrade of unconventional feedstock, which was everything that wasn't fossil that we wanted to upgrade with hydro processing. And uh that was back in 2013, and uh and and um and it was really interesting. We had already done two designs, so we had one operating reference, we were about to have another reference on the way, but but there was more to be done. So I started looking into renewable fuels, uh also into advanced biofuels, understanding everything, and and it materialized that I was like, there's a very large market for us. Um and that was back in 13, uh 14, 15, I think more. Uh and and this market then materialized. And it turned out that we had great technology, great catalyst. We had exactly what we needed to hit the market uh at the right place, uh at the right time. So the business grew. Uh and so um so I moved to a real business unit with my business, uh, which was the Hydroflex Technology. And uh and then I uh I I I grew the business for for some years, of course. And when I say I grew the business, it's like I was responsible for the business, but we had an amazing team of people to collaborate with. And this became a quite central part of our business. And then then I became responsible for the entire hydro processing technology product line. Uh I did that for some years, then I got a more and then I got some new challenges which were completely new to me because that was being responsible for marketing, for for our customer service, for our spare parts, for our events also, and did that for a few years. And then uh 1st of January uh 25, I got this position as a senior vice president for all our technologies. So I think the the the very uh long answer to your simple question is that I have continuously been giving new challenging tasks that I love. Uh working with colleagues that uh that are amazing, doing great stuff. And I think this is one of the fundamental points for me with working at TopSu is that uh our purpose at TopSu is perfect in chemistry for a better world. Yeah, and this is something that lies very close to my heart, and so it is very meaningful. So not only am I blessed with awesome colleagues, but it's also something that impacts the world in a good way. Yeah, and I think that is the so that's the reason, and and I uh not ashamed, and also interps with people stay for a very long time. Yeah, we have many who have 25-year anniversary. I have uh I have been to quite a few 40 years anniversary.

The SAF Pathways On Offer

7:30

We have even had a few who made it to 50 years. Wow, but that's rare. 40 years is also special, but 25 years is more up until I don't know, six or seven years ago, we didn't even really celebrate five and ten years anniversaries. It was more like okay, yeah, and yeah, um so uh so we are uh we are a company where where a lot of people stay for a long time. That's awesome. That's awesome to hear. Do you want to very quickly go over because you guys have got an inordinate amount of technologies? So I'm not gonna ask you to list every single technology related to every single vertical that you guys are operational in. We'll stick to SAF for the purposes of this podcast. Do you want to very quickly just explain to those that don't know, because I'm sure many people are very familiar with Topso, what the technologies that you guys provide are? Yeah. So the technologies that we provide and have provided uh for a long time is first of all the HEFA SAF, the one where you do hydro processing of a liquid feedstock. Uh it may need to be pre-treated. It's a hydroprocessing technology. We have more than 20 running references producing renewable fuels now, and we produce a third of the Ceph, not we, but we have delivered technology that produces a third of the Ceph that's available in the world now. Wow. Um yeah. That's incredible. Yeah, it is quite amazing. Uh and um so so that is part of it, and and this is both technology and also catalysts. Catalysts are sort of the heart of the process. Um that's that's one point, the HAFA SAF. Then the other part is uh FT, uh Fisher Trops SAF, that we together with our partners at CESL, we provide. So CESL provides the the gasification part of it. So it's if you have a gas or or do gasification uh into a fissure trops or into soon gas, and and then further on to the fissure traps process, further on to the product workup, and then you end up with a SAF. And we do that for for both um for both uh bio or for bio and and also uh different kinds of biomaterials. Um so those are the two ones, these are the ones that you can you can sign a contract today with us, and we can supply this. Then we're also working on on the other areas with oh you can also and ESAF as well. So where you uh where you take um either biogas or um and and green hydrogen, uh you can you can do that. Um and uh and that that is also available today. Um and then there's also ethanol to jet uh that we are that we're working on. Um and and these are the the routes that are available for us to have conversations with with customers about so I think uh the majority of the pathways to do SAF uh we can provide them. Yeah. You've got pretty much all bases. All bases covered there. Yes, but how how much of it is how much of the time is spent ref refining the existing technologies and catalysts that you already have versus RD and exploring new pathways and developing that side of continually adding to the technologies we provide? At Top 2, we spent a very large amount of our revenue on RD. And uh, I think last year we spent uh between eight and nine percent of our annual revenue on RD. Obviously, not only for SAF. Uh, but we have a very large uh yeah, it is a very large, and if you compare it to the industry, it is it is a lot, uh, it's a high percentage. But this is the whole point of TEPSU is that we are founded on our research and development. And and in the heart, uh all of us uh uh are kind of RD because um we always try to

R&D Culture And Catalyst Gains

12:10

improve. And I think this is important to recognize that that we are never satisfied. And Topster actually had a really nice quote once where he said, if it's not scientifically proven that it can't be improved, we believe it can. Yeah. That's how the founder, right? That's how the Topster is the founder. Uh and and this really is something that we carry with us, and so it means that we continuously develop, and and over the whole um renewable fuels with hydro processing, we have developed very far uh over the last 20 years. Um so we continuously develop on our Hydroflex uh technology as well as the catalyst going inside it, because those are the ones together with the process that make a big difference. Um and as soon as you have sold one unit, it has been built, it has a finite volume to contain the catalyst. And so every time we make an improvement, you get more SAF or you get a lower consumption of your feed stack, uh, it impacts positively. So while we are working on the newer technologies, we continuously work on the more mature technologies. Uh and that goes for all of our technologies. It it is really we have a massive part of our people working in RD. I want to split this podcast into two sections. One looking at feed stocks, which is obviously a very important part of understanding which technologies are feasible, because if you don't have the stuff to put in it, there's no point in having it. And then I want to look slightly later and look at the actual technologies themselves, the pathways, how the technology stack works, and how that relates to projects getting FID and financing. So to begin with, on the feedstock side, why what why do you think feed stocks are becoming or are one of the biggest constraints related to staff? Obviously, staff's got a load of issues that it's trying to solve simultaneously. That's what's that's what makes it equally fascinating and difficult in equal measure. But from your side, as a technology developer licensor, why are feed stocks a particularly troublesome challenge for producers to overcome? First of all, uh the commercial success that that for HAFA is built on a base of used cooking oil, animal fats, waste greases, and to an extent, edible oils. Those are streams that are constrained. Uh and and they're harder to secure at a competitive price because mandates are accelerating globally. So we have seen over the past years that, for example, the soybean oil price has increased. It it increases the cost. Uh and and typically the feedstock cost is is uh sometimes well over half of the SAF production costs. Yeah. And this has an impact also on the project economics and and the bankability. And what we see is that this competition from the same liquid oils are intensifying uh because you not only have road transport, but you also have aviation, and now maritime

Why Feedstocks Are The Constraint

15:50

is also uh sort of emerging uh simultaneously, and and then there's uh also um a demand for methanol and ethanol uh overlapping across marine aviation and also the chemical applications. So it's a quite interesting space. And uh and then when you look at at EU's uh Renewable Energy Directive 3, it will tighten the sustainability and traceability requirements in 2026, uh, which means that that making search for new feedstocks that can be certified uh is is pretty urgent um because uh there's there is a finite amount of uh animal fat of uh of used cooking oil, even though there's much more cook used cooking oil in the world that you you would believe. Right. Um so so it is uh I think right now we're kind of expecting a feedstock crunch is is anticipated in after 2030, uh as as we see the mandates being tightened. Uh and I think that right now there's uh there's an adequate amount for the announced projects. Uh but but but we need to do something with regards to feedstock diversification uh later later in in after 30. Uh but probably something we should start preparing for now. Yeah. Um so so and and I think this is one of the points where we as a licensor of technology really has a very large role to play because we need, I think our we have uh several priorities. One is of course to deliver technology that works and it does, many references, but also to be prepared for the next wave of feedstack. Yeah, and this means that we have continuously uh in the last uh more than 15 years uh built up a library of all kinds of feedstack, learned how to analyze them and also how to uh upgrade them. And this is very important. Yeah. The um all the points you just said there very much leans into the idea of the importance of feedstock flexibility. The constraint that projects get put under when they uh have to use one specific type of feedstock. And that leads to all sorts of issues relating to, as you mentioned, price sensitivity. If that feedstock price goes up, then they have no choice but to grin and bear it. Whereas if you've got the flexibility, you can find cheaper alternatives and actually play the market slightly more dynamically. And then you've also got more risk shielding in terms of feedstock um supply by actually being able to do multiple, multiple different feedstocks. But that provide does that provide additional complexities for you as a licensor with using your technology? Because although it de-risks a project, it might add slightly more risk on the technology side. No, uh for the conventional feedstocks that are out there in the market right now, it is absolutely not an issue uh to uh to design. We we call it design windows, right? We design within a window, and and we can and we typically have a long discussion with our customers about like what is the base case and what are the sensitivity cases. So you sort of have a base case that you start out from and then you can design around it so you accommodate for these feedstock shifts. And it's in honesty, it's not that different from the fossil world, where you also are dependent on the crude that you're importing, and they can and they vary a lot depending on which region that they come from and and which uh oil field they come from. And this is something that we are completely used to taking into account. And I think also an important point to understand is if you have a unit that's designed primarily for used cooking oil and you decide to change into tallow or to soybean oil, then it's not a matter of okay, then it doesn't work because it works. It's just a matter of what are the yields that you're getting out, and is there anything you need to to take into account? Yeah. The um the oil field, the the thing you mentioned around oil is actually quite interesting in the sense that there is that inherent flexibility depending on where you get it from. Do people actually understand truly the flexibility and the ability that technology licenses like Topso? I'm gonna do a BBC and say other technology licenses are available for any UK listeners. That's great. Um But do people truly understand the flexibility and the ability of technology licenses to adapt to different feed stocks, or is this something you're still very much having to educate the market on? I think it is always uh a discussion uh that we have with our customers because obviously when you invest in such a plant, it is a very large sum of money that that you're putting into it and you want to be absolutely certain. But I think this is also where we as a licensor and as a catalyst uh supplier, we stay in very close contact with our customers to understand, okay, so you're having a feed stack constraint there, you might change, so you're considering changing this, and they can always reach out to us, and we yeah, we always have like we have plenty of systems in place to have a fruitful conversation with our customers to ensure that they have the best performing plant at all times, independent of which feedstec that they put in. Yeah, but we have knowledge. About all the operating plans that we have licensed, which means that that we are already a very good partner because we know, right? We know we can use the experience from others, of course, without violating any confidentiality, but but we use our experience to help our customers produce the best way possible.

Designing For Feedstock Flexibility

22:20

What about more advanced feed stocks for technologies that are still being developed that aren't necessarily being commercially rolled out and you can almost just buck off the shelf? How are um so sort of two questions? Which ones are you guys most interested in current or and are currently exploring? And you know, what are you doing about through that exploration to be able to take advantage of those? Because as you mentioned, there is likely going to be a feedstock crunch when you're talking about the heifer technology come 2030s. There's going to be a plateau, plateau coming. Yeah. Yeah. So having been in this industry for for more than a decade, I can say now, uh, which is uh which is pretty long in this space. You can say nearly two, can't you? Yeah, but I well, I I I try to stay honest, right? Uh so I have only been working with this since 2013. You said like more than a decade. You you've said you've done some marketing before, so that means you can use it. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, okay, but uh okay, I'm an engineer at heart, so I'll like I'll stick to the facts. Um but but um I've been following this area for for since 2013. And and I think the big pain point is that there has been plenty of promising technologies, but none of them, none of them are at the full commercial scale yet. And and and so so if you're looking at alternative and next generation feed stacks, uh obviously first on top of my list are the intermediate and rotational crops. It's like I think they this is just like it's very much a no-brainer. It's like you have fields out there, they are empty because you have harvested it. You can put an intermediate crop and utilize the entire value chain one more time. Yeah. In the same year. And I think that's this is really something that I uh that I this is also the one where you have the lowest technology challenge, right? Because it's something you it's just like, please do it. Um so uh so I think that that is something that is attracting uh significant uh attention and and from various outlooks, uh these could reach uh 28 million tons by 2050, but it's still something that that needs to grow, right? But it's also it's it's supporting farmers and it's also at the same time sort of sidestepping the food versus fuel debate, which is which has been an issue for the first generation biofuels. Yeah, and then obviously if you look at the other uh processes such as the biogas to liquid, uh then it's it's biogas and renewable natural gas like biomethane, they they're also gaining traction at as feedstocks, uh particularly in Europe and US, because these these are pipeline compatible. So you and I think it and and this is really and and this is the point is that that this pragmatism around saying, okay, so so what are the tools we have? Can we use them? Uh can we use them in a slightly different way or with a slightly different feedstock? Uh that that is something that makes a lot of sense. And also it's very suited to the gas to liquid technologies, and the gas to liquid technologies are already there at large scale, like at super large scale. The only difference is that this gas is uh is not uh renewable. Uh so this is really reducing the the technological risk because the we don't even talk about TRL levels because it's just like it's it's a mature technology. Then then, of course, uh there's municipal solid waste uh via gasification pathways is also something that that is uh seriously interesting because this is uh this is combining uh waste management challenges uh and producing renewable fuels at a meaningful scale. Um and then there are like niche sources, uh including cashew nutshell liquid. Uh it's also crude tell oil. This is something that's already operating. It was one of our first references. Then there's rubber seed oils and synthetic fatty acids. So so there are there are quite a few of them. And then of course, there's plastic and uh tire tires, like use tires. And yeah, and I think what what's really uh struck me at one point, I think it was uh somebody else who said it, is like we're gonna use exactly this the same amount of tires because electrical cars also use tires, right? So that that that is a steady source. Uh it's gonna be for a while until we all fly around in drones, but that's uh that's a way out still the electric uh cars use more tires than regular cars because they're so heavy. So actually you get a more robust really, yeah, because of the weight related to the batteries, they go through, they wear their tires quicker, so you actually get more feedstock. That was not a

Next-Gen Feedstocks That Matter

27:40

lot of electric cars as well, yeah. Okay, so that's uh another another thing point for uh for focusing on this, but this is gaining traction and and also but it's very region-specific, and and also we know that ASCM is exploring the approval for co-processing up to five percent of these exotic feed stocks. Um but that would be an early uh early market entry route. Uh and and again, this is the pragmatism I'm talking about. Like, okay, if we can't do it fully, can we do it a little? Um yeah. And there are two things from from what you just said that I want to sort of pick up on. The yeah, the first one with the new feed stocks and technology pathways that are being developed, one of the big challenges that people developing working on this technology have is the timelines related to ASTM and getting it certified and the bureaucracy around that is super constraining. And adds a lot of obviously, there are very good reasons why fuels need to be certified. We don't just want everything being thrown in engines that would wouldn't end well, probably. Exactly. But on the other hand, this industry so the SAP industry is trying to move at incredible speed, and some aspects of it aren't keeping up with the other aspects of it, and one of them is the bureaucracy certification side. Yeah. So what can be done? Is there anything that can be done, or is this something that people just have to get used to, the slow bureaucratic movements related to certification? I think as a person who flies regularly, I'm totally comfortable with the time it takes. Uh, because also imagine the impact. Imagine the impact. Yeah. Uh I think it is very important for the industry uh while staying impatient to also recognize that it would be detrimental to the entire SAF area if you had a plane crash caused by Ceph. Yeah. Yeah, the rest of the entire control damage would be would be huge. But equally, you know, there are lots of developers that have got very confined capital requirements, and unlocking the next level of investment requires certification, which can take longer cash firmware. Honestly, what you could do is that you could start out producing renewable diesel and making a plant where you say, okay, we're gonna use this feedstock, we're gonna produce a bunch of renewable diesel, and as soon as it's approved, we're switching to SAF. Because that's also what we can design for. And a fun fact is that nobody talks about renewable diesel anymore, but we actually foresee that there will be a deficit in the supply of renewable diesel compared to uh to the demand. Yeah, so that is a very smart in-between, and we can design plants that can switch between SAF and renewable diesel. So you can start out producing a lot of renewable diesel, getting super well acquainted with the entire first step of the process, which is hydrodeoxy, which in reality is one of the most difficult steps of it. Yeah. And then the switch to sustainable aviation fuel is not that large. So I would really challenge the people, and also because really I I would uh I I understand that it takes a long time, but but the the requirements are not the same for renewable diesel. So start out doing renewable diesel, then switch to SAF. Yeah. I also really like the the pragmatism argument, you know, be pragmatic, do what you can now, and then when you have optionality open up, then you could take advantage of you mentioned co-processing previously and how you can it can work in more newer feedstocks and newer production pathways, and you can use that as a way of getting them involved. But co-processing as a production methodology has come under a bit of criticism from those that think we've got to be looking at pure play SAF solutions or indeed renewable diesel solutions on the road transport side in order to unlock a flywheel that can generate large-scale SAF production with the maximum level of emissions reductions that we can possibly achieve with the technologies we have available and the feedstocks we have available. So would you agree with them or would you say that there is a cr a role that co-processing can play and should play in assisting the the scale up of SAF production? Yeah, I

ASTM Pace And Safety Reality

32:45

think I I would argue that there's room for both. Um because what what we see is that uh that that some of these uh projects that are focused on 100% SAF are very investment heavy, where you can get to co-processing in a much uh less capex-intensive uh fashion, uh, because you can do it by exchanging the catalyst and then uh and then co-processing up to 5%. And and and this is and I also you can also see it as a catalyst that people that the refineries get used to handling the renewable feedstock. So I see it as a stepping stone. It's the first stepping stone to go towards 100% renewable SAF production. Um, and there are some who choose to take one big leap uh into 100% uh SAF production, such as Sky Energy, who have just had their uh groundbreaking ceremony, which is absolutely awesome. Uh, but there are also uh refineries that that have to um get used to handling the renewable feedstock. And and I also think this is something that can happen a bit faster. Uh you don't need to build a whole new unit uh or a new biorefinery, you can do it in existing. And I I think that's that's that's a so and also I think there's a whole ecosystem around SAF that needs to get built up to be able to stand on its own two feet, right? And and this is also uh a lever to that. Um so so I would argue, but that's I'm also of course super biased because we deliver both, right? Yeah, so but but I do think that again we're talking about this pragmatism, like how do we want this this change to happen? And it will happen gradually, so for some faster, for some, they will start out with co-processing. So so I would argue that that's room for both. Yeah. And you said there that the the capex

A Practical Detour Via Renewable Diesel

34:55

required for these SAF projects is can be enormous, and we've seen a lot of very encouraging investments being made already this year across the world. We've seen them in Africa, across Europe, um, and beyond. There's been lots of good news there, which is exciting to see. But there isn't necessarily unlimited capital in the world. So finding every methodology you can to reduce the amount of CapEx that's required in staff projects is crucial for producers to actually be competitive and using existing, whether it's brownfield sites or being able to connect to existing infrastructure so you don't have to build out a whole new pipeline or deliver it supply ecosystem, are all becoming more and more important in the discussion around actually will projects get financing at all, let alone the amount of cap the amount of investment they can get when they get to FID. What are the the ways when you're if you as a technology licensor that you see that are the most pragmatic? I'm gonna stick to the theme, I'm liking the theme, in terms of both uh being able to achieve FID and being able to achieve not require an FID that's so enormous that it becomes almost impossible to achieve. So you can manage the capital expenditure, but also ensure that you're in a position to actually receive it, receive that investment.

Co-Processing As A Stepping Stone

36:42

I think that what we see for successful projects is that you need to be first of all sure of your feedstock. You need some feedstock, um and also to not make too many changes in the process because you start out with an idea. I want to build a self plant. That's great. We're happy to help, jobs is there, Hydroflex is there. Uh and then it's like we're gonna use this feedstock. And then a few months later, it's like, no, we have changed our mind. Uh we're gonna use another feedstock. And and and this delays the process, and and that that happens over and over again. Uh so I think if you can and and and it is it is a puzzle. Uh it it really is a matter of securing your feedstock, having the design, and also securing the off take. And and every time I see successful projects, uh almost every time, they are people who have done their homework, who know which type of feedstock that they want with with some degrees, uh, and who also have off take, have considered the location that they're building in, and also have partners. And I think this is what we're seeing across this. Like the more it we usually uh Silvang and I we always talk about it takes a village. Uh it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a a good village of different kinds of partners with different competencies to build a SAF plant. And and and this is you can't do it on your own. Well, okay, obviously if you have billions and billions of dollars, you can. Totally. Go ahead. We'll be happy to supply. But but for others, other regular more regular people, you need you need people. Uh you need security for your fee sec, you need security for your off-tick, otherwise you do not have something that people want to invest in. We we've meandered on to the technology portion of of this discussion, which is absolutely fine. And I wanted to ask you around the issue of technology and EPC wraps for projects. Investors want to see a fully de-risk technology stack. Obviously, you're not necessarily providing the whole technology stack by yourselves all the time. You're working with different technology partners for different aspects of a project. From a licensor perspective, can you just share the realities of actually giving a project a full technology wrap and de-risking the technology stack and how difficult or easy that is, depending on the pathway? Yeah. Well, I think from our point, we have more than 20 running references, right? It is de-risked. Like you cannot de-risk it anymore. Uh so the the heart of the technology is de-risked. The if you are going for the conventional feed stacks, uh, the pre-treatment technologies are de-risked. I think it's a matter of to a certain extent that, and and then there's a whole EPC rep, and the question is, do you want to do that? Some uh because that also comes at a cost, because you're asking an EPC to carry all uh all the liabilities for the entire rep. And and this means that your project will be more expensive than if you put together the pieces on your own. So it's a way off, and I think it's a way off of your experience. If you have really experienced people, if you have experience with operation, if you have experience with building stuff, you can do without the EPC wrap. But but if you are brand new, I would totally recommend it, but but know that it will be more expensive. And again, it it depends on on where you are in in the process. So what I'm trying to say

What Actually Gets Projects To FID

40:55

in a very long-winded way is that it depends on the project, right? It depends on the competencies in the project, depends on the location. There are lots of moving parts in this, and it there's not a one-size fits all. But but it is difficult to to get to the final investment decision. Uh that's what we see. But but this is also why coming back to the co-processing, that this is also a path forward. Do you think the investment community, whether it's any take any take any type of investor, see an EPC wrap as a as a checkbox, as in, okay, we need a do you have an EPC wrap? Yes, yes or no. And yes is okay, that's a good sign for investment. No. Okay, you need to get one in order for us to be comfortable because we need there is a reputational element, as you said. Do they understand that do you think they get the individual projects? Every project's unique, you've got to look at the the makeup of the partners on the project, who's actually at the table, and their relative expertise and experience and previous yeah, I think, yeah, I really do. Yeah, I do think that, and and this is also what what I have also in my past uh position spent a lot of time, and I know that our people are spending quite a bit of time talking to the financialist uh institutions, talking to them about our technology, how how it's de-risked. So uh I I um as as I'm not a project developer, I'm also not a refiner. Uh I I don't I'm not I don't know all of the conversations, but I can tell you that we speak to a lot of uh financial institutions who are looking into investing into projects with our technology, uh trying to give them comfort that that that this is it. And uh and I think for for the majority of the projects uh we we don't see a full EPC wrap, but for some of them we do. And again, it depends on the project. Taking Heifer technology, which I think we can we can say is a fully de-risked technology part, technological pathway, it's very commercially available and lot and lots of even I can get my head around how heifer works, and that's saying something. Um whereas we discussed future technologies and pathways and feed stocks and things like that. And the second and third generation projects is really where we're seeing a bottleneck in terms of financing, yeah. An element of that is the is the technology risk side of it. Stack what can Topso do? What is Topso doing? What can licenses do? What are the tools in your tool belt as it? were to help unlock investment into these second third generation technology technology pathways. Yeah. Well, I think uh so we are deploying new technologies, right?

EPC Wrap Tradeoffs For Investors

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It it it requires a willingness of of our customers to take a calculated risk and also learn from the early deployments that we have. So we have a demonstration scale project such as the DLR Topsu Cassel ESAF plant is under construction. So we are really in in Loina and it's targeting 2,500 tons uh in the fourth quarter of next year. And this is an important stepping stone for for getting there. And I think this is what we can do as a licensor is to make sure to deploy the technology in a close to commercial scale. Yeah. If that answers your question um but and how do you look at planning scale up? Obviously new technologies lots of the time we've got people that will take some of your technology and apply it particularly in the ESAF space and go be looking at building a small scale demo plan, gradually going into slightly larger pilot and then gradually scaling that that scale just so that the percentage increase in production is is monitored and managed so that unwarranted risks and surprises the potential for surprises is is minimized. Is that a a pathway that you guys are heavily supportive of or are you looking more at going we'd like to get slightly bigger go slightly slightly larger scale rather than that small into incremental scale up we would much rather go to the large scale immediately for the projects so so when we at TopSo say that we believe that our commercial our technology is ready for commercial sale it is ready for commercial sale so so and and there's there's a cost uh and and the cost doesn't scale linearly so if you build a small plant you will pay a lot more per barrel which is also why you see very few HAFA plants that are below I don't know 2000 barrels per day because if you get lower than that uh this simply doesn't uh cut it uh and and I think that this is also why I am super excited about the ESAF uh demonstration scale project because it means that in quarter four of 27th we are producing ESAF and I think this will make a big difference so it also is also so so we know that this is what it takes uh and and we're willing to do it uh but we do have and and I think this is this is the important part is that that that that for the ESAF space uh there's only part of the technology that's new the rest is built on extremely mature technology

De-Risking eSAF And Final Thanks

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and and um so so we are quite confident uh that that this uh this is gonna work it's also gonna work in full scale so we are so if somebody asked me today like do you want to sign this contract with me I would like to buy an ESAF plant of I don't know five thousand barrels per day I would be more than happy to sign it awesome well Michaela thanks so much for joining us for a hundredth episode that was a brilliant discussion we touched on a lot of crucial crucial points there so it was an absolute pleasure having you on it was a pleasure being here and uh and congratulations on the hundredth episode episode yes thank you very much and all the best to all of Topso's future endeavours and well and another very pragmatic 19 years thank you thank you bye I hope you enjoyed that episode with Michaela Group from Topso as it is the hundredth episode I just wanted to quickly say thank you to everyone that has been a guest on the podcast over the last hundred episodes and also a big thank you to anyone that's listened to an episode over the last hundred episodes we've published we've had a variety of discussions with a variety of different people all working on this unique problem together and so many more interesting discussions are yet to come yet to be had new guests and we're looking forward so much to the next 100 episodes of the staff podcast so thank you to everyone that's been a part of it it's been amazing it's been an amazing ride and here's to a hundred more