Okay, But Why Are People Drawn To Conspiracy Theories?

Conspiracy theories might be having a moment, but they’re as old as civilization itself. 

In 64 AD, for example, the Great Fire of Rome sparked competing theories over who started the fire and why. And just like many of today’s conspiracy theories, it resulted in suffering and innocent deaths — Emperor Nero accused Christians of lighting the fire, which led to many being crucified or burned alive.

Conspiracy theories often arise in times of social crisis. When humans are feeling afraid, like the world is out of control, we turn to simple explanations that help us make sense of things. So it’s no surprise that such theories are on the rise in this moment of turmoil and political chaos.

It doesn’t help that many members of the Trump Administration are actively encouraging disinformation. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in particular, has embraced lies about vaccines, chem-trails, and AIDS (just to name a few). In 2019, he traveled to the island of Samoa to sew distrust of vaccines… and shortly after, a measles outbreak killed nearly 100 people. Now, only 6 years later, he’s the US Secretary of Health and Human Services.

If someone you know is in the grip of a conspiracy theory, whether it’s as high-stakes as vaccinations or as random as believing the Earth is flat, it’s tempting to think we can argue them out of it. But unfortunately, fact-checking isn’t an effective way to refute disinformation. Arguing makes people double down on their beliefs; even just repeating the lie further embeds it in their mind. Instead, it’s better to ask questions that might lead to them questioning the conspiracy theory — maybe today, or maybe a year from now. Like democracy, this is a long-term project that’ll only work if we lean in to compassion and community.

This isn’t to say that we should always take everything at face value, especially when leaders as high as RFK Jr. are spreading disinformation. But science and facts are out there, even amidst the wild internet rabbit holes it’s increasingly easy to fall into. If we hold onto our values, pay attention to experts, value evidence, and treat each other with respect, we can all make it through this moment of turmoil… together.

Transcript

Okay, But Why Are People Drawn To Conspiracy Theories?

CLIP: David: “I got it up in my head that there was some shadow group running everything. Maybe if I solved these things, they’d let me in and I’d be a member. My relationship started failing darn near immediately after marriage, I wasn’t sleeping, and I started getting really paranoid. I thought people were watching me out in public, I was skittish, I was terrified.”
David’s dad: “It’s an absolutely terrifying thing to see a loved one in that much distress and not know what you can do about it.”

These days, it feels like conspiracy theories are everywhere. There are message boards and YouTube videos full of true believers convinced that they’ve stumbled onto the truth behind the curtain. And some of these outlandish theories have caused real harm, like the harassment of grieving parents after the Sandy Hook school shooting, the resurgence of measles, and the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th.

But conspiracy theories have been a powerful force since the earliest days of human civilization. So why are people drawn to conspiracy theories? What real harm do they cause? And how can we help a loved one come back to reality?

Humans are extremely smart. And more than that, we love a puzzle. Problem- solving is at the heart of human evolution. It’s how some skinny weird mammals ended up building the internet, and the Eiffel Tower, and the concept of democracy. We observe the complicated world around us, synthesize it, and draw conclusions that help us survive and thrive. It’s satisfying to solve a puzzle. It helps us feel a sense of order and control in a world that can feel chaotic and overwhelming.

It’s not surprising, then, that conspiracy theories tend to be the most prevalent during times of turmoil and social crisis. When people are feeling afraid, like the world is out of control, we turn to simple explanations that help us make sense of things. Even a scary conspiracy theory, like the idea that a powerful shadowy cabal is controlling everything behind the scenes, gives the believer a sense of order. If we can pull back the curtain and see what’s really going on, we can get a real handle on the world.

We’re certainly in a time of turmoil right now – climate change, political chaos, growing wealth inequality… it’s no wonder that conspiracy theories are having a moment. But it’s hardly the first time. Archeologists have found conspiracy theories scratched into walls in ancient Roman ruins. In the year 64 AD, the great fire of Rome destroyed most of the city. Emperor Nero was out of town when the fire started, and conspiracy theories quickly began to spread that Nero intentionally started the fire to rebuild Rome according to his own vision. In turn, Nero came up with a conspiracy theory of his own, blaming Christians for starting the fire, which led to many Christians being crucified or burned alive. And conspiracy theories about witches in the 17th century arose in a time of social unrest and a smallpox epidemic, leading to the tragic executions of more than a dozen women and girls during the Salem Witch Trials. 

Conspiracy theories today are still causing suffering and even death. Fears over vaccines, and the idea that the government is somehow secretly manipulating us with them, have caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. The National Library of Medicine estimates that at least 230,000 deaths from Covid-19 could’ve been prevented with vaccinations just from 2021 to 2022 alone. And we’re currently in the midst of a measles outbreak after eliminating the disease in the US in the year 2000. Most of the cases are in children, and so far this year, three have died.

It’s particularly troubling that many of our political leaders right now are encouraging these types of conspiracy theories. The Secretary of Health and Human Services for example, Robert F Kennedy Jr., is a well-known conspiracy theorist. He’s pushed easily-debunked theories about chemtrails, vaccines, and even denying the existence of AIDS. In 2019, Kennedy visited the island of Samoa to meet with local anti-vaccination activists and spread fear about the safety of vaccines. As a result, vaccination rates for newborns dropped significantly, leading to a measles outbreak that killed almost a hundred people. That was only 6 years ago, and now, RFK Jr is in charge of the healthcare of the United States of America.

Obviously some of these topics are more complicated than others. Vaccines are almost universally considered safe by doctors and medical experts, and zero medical studies have been able to prove any connection with autism, but some children have different medical needs than others, so it’s best to have a conversation with your family’s doctor. Other conspiracy theories, like the idea that the earth is flat, seem so preposterous that it’s hard to imagine that anyone legitimately believes them. We’ve had scientific evidence that the Earth is round since the time of ancient Greeks. 

Likewise, we have almost universal agreement among scientists that climate change is real, and yet conspiracies about it continue to be pushed by members of the Trump Administration. Project 2025, the far-right extremist playbook that’s been the road map for this administration, recommended that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration be dismantled for driving the “climate change alarm industry.” Again, we absolutely know for a fact that climate change is happening, but in the face of such a scary and overwhelming problem, you can see how it might be comforting to believe that it’s nothing more than a conspiracy.

But even though conspiracy beliefs are a response to anxiety and uncertainty, they don’t actually make people feel better. In fact, research in the journal Current Opinion in Psychology shows that conspiracy theories increase feelings of powerlessness, fear, and anti-social behavior. And that’s not to mention all the real-world consequences we’ve mentioned already. So if someone you love is in the grips of a conspiracy theory (or several), how do you help them?

It’s tempting to think that we can argue people into seeing the light. If we just show them the facts, if we just prove it to them, surely they’ll stop believing. Unfortunately, exactly the opposite is true. The more you argue with someone, the more they dig in their heels. If you offer Exhibit A to show that of course the Earth is round, we’ve measured it in a thousand different ways, they’ll say that’s what they want you to think - let me tell you why each of those is wrong. If you show them a picture of Earth from space, they’ll tell you that those pictures are fake. Even just repeating the conspiracy theory in the first place further cements it into people’s minds. 

In the words of journalist Jessica Yellin,

CLIP: Jessica Yellin: “Fact-checking is not an effective way to refute disinformation, because you don’t want to repeat the lie. Even the repetition of it embeds it in their memory as a factoid they draw on later, disconnected from whether they remember it was true or false.”

Instead, it’s better to ask questions that might cause them to doubt the conspiracy theory, like–

CLIP: Jessica Yellin: “You know what bothers me is I’ve never found evidence that this thing is true that they’re saying. Like ‘Bill Gates is putting a chip in you.’ Where’s the original source of the chip? I’ve never found it. And you don’t say it’s wrong, because then they immediately defend themselves. You say, ‘I’m bothered by it, I don’t know.’ And you move on, and you let it turn in their head.”

It’s also important to affirm the beliefs you do have in common. Many conspiracy theories, as strange as they may seem, center values that most of us share, like protecting children. And for as anti-social as many of these conspiracy groups seem, they’re actually creating a close-knit community within the group that believes. We all need community, and we’re in a moment of increased isolation, so alienating loved ones who believe in conspiracy theories will only drive them further into the comfort of their conspiracy community.

That’s how David, the conspiracy theorist from the beginning of this episode, finally found his way out: through the support of his family.

CLIP: David: “I wish I could give more of a single moment where the not-believing in conspiracies finally emerged. All I know was that by your not being judgmental, by not telling me that it was all fake or I was crazy, I was able to slowly climb back out because of your support.”
David’s dad: “Thank you. You’re gonna make me cry. I hope that your mother and I weren’t… accusatory.”
David: “You were very supportive. And I’m very thankful for that, because at the end of the day I could’ve dismissed anyone except you guys. You’ve made it abundantly clear throughout my whole life that you cared, so I appreciate that.”
David’s dad: “It’s impossible to overstate how much we care.”
David: “Sorry I lost my way for a bit.”

This isn’t to say that we should always take everything at face value, especially when leaders as high as the Secretary of Health and Human Services are spreading disinformation. But science and facts are out there, even amidst the wild internet rabbit holes it’s increasingly easy to fall into. If we hold onto our values, pay attention to experts, value evidence, and treat each other with respect and compassion, we can all make it through this moment of turmoil… together.



Sources
https://today.usc.edu/conspiracy-theories-past-present-qanon-usc-experts/

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5646574/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/flat-earthers-what-they-believe-and-why/

https://www.space.com/how-to-debate-flat-earther.html

https://medium.com/@maryyamkaramat/problem-solving-e545942a9af5

https://www.nesl.edu/blog/detail/a-true-legal-horror-story-the-laws-leading-to-the-salem-witch-trials#:~:text=Evidence%20points%20to%20several%20factors,Town%2C%20and%20the%20simmering%20tensions

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10123459/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/rfk-jr-appears-before-congress-as-his-comments-spreading-misinformation-draw-scrutiny

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02603-5/fulltext

https://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/creating-conspiracy-beliefs-examines-the-roles-of-fear-anxiety-media-and-social-interactions/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx_HYLx9Yms

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B11rJLuTDXc