First Trust ROI Podcast

Ep 56 | Josh Volen | Finding an Edge in Commercial Real Estate | ROI Podcast

• First Trust Portfolios • Season 1 • Episode 56

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Josh Volen, co-founder and managing principal at CIRE Equity, joins the podcast to discuss trends in commercial real estate investing as urban populations shift, hybrid work environments evolve, and industries adapt to changes in global trade.

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Ryan:

Hi, welcome to this episode of the First Trust ROI Podcast. I'm Ryan Isekinen, ETF Strategist at First Trust. Today I'm joined by Josh Volan, co-founder and principal at Sire Equity. Josh and I are going to discuss investing in real estate. What are some of the advantages and nuances that investors should be aware of, as well as what are some of the uh reasons that the industry has grown more complicated over the years, at least for us outsiders who are not professional real estate investors? Thanks for joining us on this episode of the First Trust RY podcast. Well, I'm I'm glad we were able to get this set up. Thank you. So Sire Equity is the name of your firm. Yep. Where does Sire come from? And it's C-I-R-E, it's not S-I-R-E.

Josh:

It's for people that are not Siri or Sire. You know, we are a commercial investment real estate firm, so that's where Sire comes from. Uh, but we're definitely not a marketing firm because people always ask, like, Sire, how'd you guys come up with that? But yeah, that's what it is.

Ryan:

Yeah, and you you don't have a theme song either, probably.

Josh:

We don't we don't have a theme song yet, but now you got me thinking.

Ryan:

No, there you go. Um, okay, so how did you end up in the real estate industry?

Josh:

Yeah, so the a bridge version is um I was actually sitting on the beach in Brazil studying abroad during college, and I had one semester left when I got back to uh figure out what I was gonna do. And so sitting on that beach, I was like, how do I sit on the beach and earn money? And I was reading a lot of books when books were coming from Amazon. So uh I had friends coming with suitcases full of books to Brazil, and I was just devouring books, and I read a book, Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, and that really stood out to me because what that book talked about is how do I put my talents out there and to not trade my time one for one for treasures? How do I scale that so I can earn passive cash flow effectively and sit on the beach and enjoy my life? And uh a lot of the research came back to real estate, right? Commercial real estate. So people make money, they sell their business, and then what do they do? They go and invest. And when they invest in, they invest in hard assets or alternatives like real estate, and they earn that passive cash flow, and they're able to go play golf or do whatever they wanted to do. So I said, well, why don't I just start there? So I went back to college, got my real estate license, just like the 1.5 million grandmas, moms, sisters, cousins, everyone that has a real estate license, uh moved down to San Diego and start in brokerage. So I got to learn and earn. So I was working with family offices, high net worth, ultra-net worth, ultra net worth, and institutions to help them buy and sell their commercial real estate. And I gotta learn what a good deal looks like, knowing that I always wanted to be on the principal side of the business.

Ryan:

So and take us forward then. Um Sire Equity, how did your how did you start, how did you transition from that commercial real estate experience to launch your firm?

Josh:

Yeah, so obviously that was the intention the entire time. Um it was 2009, GFC is going on, uh, world's falling apart, and third deal in a row that I was like, I should be buying this deal was my trigger to uh start up the firm. So just a short 15 years ago, March of 2020, launched Cire Equity. And um, you know, just took all that experience. My client base at the time were, you know, again, family offices, high net worths, and I just found a deal, went out to raise deal by deal. So, you know, to give the 27-year-old a blind pull fund probably wasn't the best play coming out of the GFC, but uh deal by deal made sense. So started by raising $25,000 at a time, putting all my money back into the deals, uh, did deal by deal all the way up until 2019 until we launched our own uh perpetual vehicle, which was a non-traded nav read.

Ryan:

Yeah. It's it's always amazing to me looking back, like out of some of those financial calamities, like you end up with these amazing um new opportunities. You know, prices go down, everyone freaks out, everyone's uh you know afraid, and you know, there's the the uh proverbial blood in the streets. Right. And those people that have the opportunity, the eyes to see the opportunity, end up making something of it.

Josh:

Yeah, definitely. Look, timing plays into a lot of these things, right? Yeah. If I would have had a family at that point, would I have made a different decision? I don't know. But I I would hope that I would continue to bet on myself. And I can tell you, 2009, coming off of one of my best years as a broker, across from someone I wanted to marry, my now wife, and she had made more than me doing residential real estate short sales. And I I'm just looking going, what am I doing? Like, what's gonna happen? And and just laying there going, I'm gonna bet on myself again. Right? I need to stay confident, stay optimistic, and this fear, not let the fear prevail, go back to the data, go back to what the opportunity set is. And again, there was plenty of opportunity. So hence the third deal on the road that was like, I should be buying this deal was that trigger to launch.

Ryan:

So for someone who's not in the real estate industry all the time, as maybe an outsider. Most people own real estate, but they're not really investors in real estate. They own their residence, maybe. Um it seems that it's gotten really complicated, really complex. The environment that we're in has all sorts of um, I don't know, all sorts of nuances that people are worried about, whether that's you know, people not going back into cities after COVID and not returning to work, and what does that mean for office space, or what does that mean for retail that's adjacent to office space? And there's all these different things that are that people are worried about. Um, in your opinion, as someone who's a professional investor in real estate, has it gotten more complicated, or is that just the narrative that we on the outside observe?

Josh:

Uh let's keep the narrative going. It's extremely complicated, so you shouldn't get into it. No, um, I think we complicate things, right? And I think whenever um there are shifts until there's a new normalcy, there's all the fear and the fear headlines come out, and that narrative that will sell the newspapers gets regurgitated over and over again. Sometimes to become a prophecy that becomes a reality, sometimes it's repeating things that were six months a year typically old news. Um so if you think about from 2009, 2010 to 2000 through 2020, the one headline in the press was around retail. Retail was dead, retail apocalypse, Amazon effect. Right? And so what did COVID actually do for that? It actually helped accelerate a lot of the narratives that were either starting or that were already in the press to either prove them right or prove them wrong. And I think 2020 actually, COVID sped that up to show retail's not dead, and retail ended up being a product type that's been very resilient in last mile delivery in the omnichannel delivery of goods and services. What comes out of that then is you're talking about now an office revitalization or a new office shake up to normalcy, right? That we're trying to figure out now with hybrid or whatever that looks like, work from home hybrid to back to office. And you it's pretty interesting, you have a dichotomy there right now where you have the kind of old school thought it's like, look, I don't know if people are working unless I see them in the office mentality, to this new, super new mentality of, hey, I grew up in COVID in high school or in college. I really want to work in an office. I want to be around people. I don't want to be isolated again. I want to learn with people. I want to do this podcast in person versus on Zoom today to have that connection. So you kind of have polarizing on both ends of that that are both saying, I want to be back, and then the people in the middle that are going, I kind of like this work from home thing. I got this hybrid, I got this flexibility. So that's the new normalcy of trying to figure out what that looks like because Office isn't dead, right? There's not a lot of loyalty to Office because if you have an internet, you have your cell phone, you can be anywhere, potentially. Um, you have all these now technology tools that you can utilize too to get teams together. However, the replacement of the office is now going, how do we collaborate? What's going to draw people to office, right? What are the amenities? Does it have a golf simulator? Does it have a pool table? Does it have a kitchen for everyone to use? Does it have a gym for everyone to attract people to come back to work together, but with a much smaller footprint? You know, does the full accounting team, does the full marketing team need to come back to the office and take 20,000 square feet, or is now it's just executives and it's 4,000 square feet, right? So right sizing is kind of what's going on that I'm seeing at least in the office world. But the demand is, yes, it might be down, but then you also have inventory leaving the market too, right? The conversion to residential in office. We have an office building in San Diego that's being converted to a residential building. So they just took 250,000 square feet out of the market, which helps again get you back to a demand-supply balance at some point. And then you could go the other way with that, just like retail. You don't build retail for 15 years, and now what do you have? You have it's out of balance, and now you have rents rising pretty rapidly. So it's cyclical.

Ryan:

Yeah. And I mean, if you're I would imagine there's more demand to live in a beautiful building that's being redone in San Diego than in other parts of the country, perhaps. Um how important is that geographical location when it comes to some of these trends that you're seeing? Like people that moved out to a maybe uh more of a hybrid work environment in a less attractive place versus a more attractive place. Is that is that something that you pay close attention to?

Josh:

We do. We definitely track the data on where are people, where where the trends, where are people going, what do jobs look like, what's the you know, the disposable income levels of people, what are transmodal trends. We're looking at a lot of different data points for what we invest in. Um but yeah, there's definitely been there's markets that are doing better than others, right? And it's not just about a lot of it's around affordability, but it's also, you know, I would say there's been a lot of polarization, you know, when it comes to politics and different things that have changed in certain cities that move people to other places as well or attract people to certain places. So we've seen a lot of movement, and uh, I don't think that's stopped or a normalcy there either. I think you've seen some definite winners of uh of some of the transitions of movement towards call it going from California and going east to Arizona into Texas. Texas continues to grow um and then all the way to Nashville, right? You see kind of that sprawl and into Florida. So you've seen this kind of dispersion of people move across the country and mainly from the West Coast.

Ryan:

So I want to talk a little bit about from a macro perspective, some of the fat some of the forces that uh are important for you as a real estate investor. Um interest rates come to mind. I I think most people, what they're familiar with in the residential real estate experience is that we we went through this period of time where rates shot up really quickly. And it it sort of made sense initially that people would think, well, if you've got higher mortgage rates, houses are less affordable, maybe that puts a downward pressure on prices, but we've seen kind of the opposite because then people don't want to sell their house because they don't want to refinance, so there's less inventory. So it's so do you see anything similar to that from the commercial side of things, or how how do you think about interest rates?

Josh:

Yeah, I I think interest rates are gonna go up, they're gonna go down, and if you want to really ride that roller coaster, my crystal ball is as foggy as anyone else's. I'm I'm not a professional economist on that, but uh I think it's what the way my approach to interest rates is can we live with the interest rate we're at right now and can we lock that in? Because I want to sleep easy at night as an investor myself, and I don't want to ride that roller coaster of if a deal doesn't make sense and you have to have a lower interest rate for the deal to make sense, it probably doesn't make sense to buy the deal. It's common sense. So just simple mental models around that. I've seen, we've definitely seen the pressure on people. It's from the GFC even how did billionaires become millionaires? They over-leveraged, right? They used the inappropriate amount of leverage, they rode the roller coaster of letting it be variable rate. What happened in 21? It was very enticing to go variable rate loans because they were so enticing, they're inducing to go and do deals that maybe you shouldn't be doing at an over-leveraged price point. And then when that ran up, starting in Q2 of 2022 and just kept running, that train runs away with all your equity, and you don't have a backup option to that. Your rent growth is clearly not making up for that. So betting on pro forma versus betting on existing or investing in existing, one's betting, one's investing. Right? And so locking in interest rates and having a positive spread to debt today is a quick way of your backup then is cash flow versus hoping, which is not a strategy, reacting, which is never great, to a market that you can't control. So if you can you can box in those variables or those risks with fixing your debt and making sure you have those fundamentals of whatever you're buying, that's another way to at least sleep easier and night and not ride that roller coaster.

Ryan:

So there's been a lot of evolution in the ways that people own real estate, whether it's their their residents or other forms of REITs. Um talk a little bit about the different types of ownership structures of real estate. Yeah, so and maybe some of the advantages or disadvantages.

Josh:

You know, uh I get asked this question a lot, especially from you know, having friends that let's say build a business, sell their business, and they go, okay, now we got this pile of money, we're gonna go into real estate. And they go, what should I do? And I start laughing, it's like, well, you just sold your business. It's like me saying, I just sold my business, I'm gonna go into your business and just start buying, you know, whatever you were doing, and what would you tell me? Yeah, right. And so um there's a lot of different ways to invest into real estate. Uh there's the direct ownership, like you mentioned, right? Owning a house, people under can understand that. Buying a second house, buying multifamily, buying triple net properties. But I think there's a misnomer of what owning real estate looks like direct. I think people, there is a thought process that it can just be passive. And there's no such thing as owning a piece of real estate and being passive because it's always active. Even if you're deferring to a property manager, that property manager is still calling you and going, hey, the plumbing broke. We need to fix it. Do you want to fix it? Or we're gonna fix it and we're gonna spend your money to fix it and send you the bill. So it's there's still an active ownership, even in direct. Then you go all the way to the other side, which is super passive, and that's where you use investment advisors and different things to vet out, which are the public markets, right? Publicly traded REITs or other stocks that you can buy that own real estate. And what I like to say is it's kind of like the Goldilocks approach for everyone. You got to figure out what's too hot, what's too cold, and what's just right for you. You know, to take an liquid, an illiquid asset like real estate and make it hyper liquid to the millisecond probably is a little misaligned at that point. That feels a little for me, that's a little bit of a.

Ryan:

It's tough to mark a price when you're dealing with real estate. You know, mark like you can a stock, right?

Josh:

Like a millisecond by the millisecond for something that's really not liquid, you're managing the real estate in a different way. You're managing a company in a different way.

Ryan:

Yeah.

Josh:

And it's a long-term investment to make it a short-term, that short term. And then on the other side is super illiquid, right? Even if I own my real estate outright myself, I still have to go bring it to a real estate agent to go value that property, bring it to market, gather offers, and try to sell it. And that could take 90, 180 plus days. So there's things in the middle now, too, that provide that. There's different interval funds, there's different um nav reads that are non-traded vehicles that provide semi-liquidity. So there's a lot more options today, and that's again where you have professionals. I would always defer to professionals on this. If you're not the professional, it's like the Matt Damon quote, right? Around uh rounders, if you can't spot the sucker, you're probably the sucker. Like you got to be careful, get the professionals around you to help you with that and let them do what they do.

Ryan:

So real estate is also interesting from the perspective of other industries. We've seen costs have really come down in the last several decades for the stock market, for bonds, like spreads have come in. And real estate is an area where if you're selling a you know your home, you're still likely to pay five or six percent when it comes to the the commissions to real estate agents. Um and this is kind of a maybe a a rabbit trail. Uh, but I'm wondering what you think of that. It why why has that a uh been the case? And is that also the case, I guess, when it comes to commercial? Is there still that that frictional cost of uh transacting?

Josh:

Yeah, I would say in some ways it's come down and become more systematized, right? I think in residential, it's more perfect information in residential. I think everyone has some idea that they're checking Zillow or Redfin or whatever it is. Now it could be any of the AI apps. What's my house worth, right? And they're gonna give you some data because there's more prevalent stock and velocity in residential. Two homes next to each other more likely or closer in value. You can't say the same thing with commercial. You could have two buildings right next to each other having completely different valuations based on the tenancy that's inside the building, the lease term that's inside the building, the encumbrances that come on top of that building, right? Same zoning, everything else, but they could be very different in pricing. So there's imperfect information in commercial real estate, which is why there's such a wide swath of opportunity in commercial real estate. So expertise, a information that maybe other people don't have or relationships that people don't have can create outsized opportunity. And that's why expertise, starting with that, for someone that's new jumping into something, how do you pick up 20 years of expertise overnight? Um, on the actual transactional cost side, there's cities, you know, smart cities like in uh San Francisco and LA, just picking on my home state of California, that have created additional friction in that because they put transfer costs of three, five plus percent. It's the mansion tax in LA as an example. Five percent off of the gross value of a $10 million plus asset, gross value, right? If you have any leverage, let's say you have 50% leverage on that, that's a 10% hit to your equity. That's painful, and that happened right overnight. So, how do you recover from that, right? The values have to move up that much more for you to recover that type of equity. So, yeah, is that a friction of people wanting to sell an asset, or do people start to get creative on how they sell assets then or what they do with their assets? So, you know, um, it's something definitely to watch that it's made it more difficult in some areas to make people want to hold on, which then creates a supply-demand imbalance again.

Ryan:

Yeah. So as an asset class, real estate has all sorts of nuances that that people maybe don't think about, um, at least as a non-professional real estate investor. What are some of the attributes of real estate that make it a little bit different than owning stocks or bonds, and maybe some of the more attractive attributes of real estate in general, whether from a tax perspective or otherwise?

Josh:

No, it's a great question. So I would say there's a handful of reasons why real estate as an asset class is done really well. Is one, you can get leverage in real estate, right? That's one of the benefits of real estate, is being able to utilize leverage. And hopefully you're using positive leverage. There's a difference between positive and negative leverage, right? If you have a 6% interest rate and you're buying something with a 5% return, you're upside down. That's negative leverage. Every dollar you're borrowing from the bank, you're paying an extra dollar to them of what you're not making. But if you have 7% return and a 6% interest rate for every dollar you borrow from the bank, you're making a dollar on every dollar you've borrowed from the bank, right? So you utilizing positive leverage is great for real estate or getting that leverage. The other benefit is typically people want to talk about it's around volatility. Real estate, again, being an illiquid asset class, and as long as you're not trading on the millisecond, shouldn't be as volatile. It's more steady eddy. Yes, you'll have cycles, but because it's illiquid, you're gonna hold through those cycles more likely. It's kind of forcing you to hold through those cycles a little bit more. So uh it smooths out the volatility in that because you typically have income in commercial real estate. That's your foundation for the valuation. Um, the tax efficiency of it, right? I'm a California guy. You know, taxes is a big question. Money saved is money earned, and the tax benefits that come along with real estate, the right interest write-off, depreciation, or even it uh cost segregation to accelerate your depreciation, to shelter your income so that the income you actually are receiving from the property is income you can actually spend. Right? That's a really big benefit, or your appreciation is also another benefit of these, these are real assets. So tariffs and all the other things in the news, that inflation, it's an inflationary hedge, effectively being a hard real asset. It's not going down, labor's not going down in price, cost of goods are not gone down in price, which means over time the value of the property should go up in the sense of replacing that property gets harder and harder every single year. So again, value appreciation over time and an inflationary hedge. So those are a handful of reasons why people typically go to real estate.

Ryan:

Yeah, that those are uh those are very good points. And I I think I hadn't thought about the uh from a tariff perspective. Everyone's talking about tariffs and focused on tariffs this year. And it is more insulated from the concerns on the one hand, because you don't have to worry about input costs and being able to pass that along. But on the other hand, the input costs mean that it's more expensive to replace, and so your value of your real estate actually appreciates potentially with that uh increased cost. That's uh that's a really good point.

Josh:

Less supply too, right? If it becomes there's less development that occurs from that, so then it creates again a bigger bridge of or a bigger gap or chasm of supply and demand, which then puts pressure on rents. So all this goes it's simple economics, right? Of supply-demand, where does that meet? What's equilibrium look like? And that's always shifting depending on what's going on in the market. But I haven't really seen it shift downward as much as I've seen it shift up and to the right in regards to the cost of replacement. Even in a downturn, we haven't seen the cost of replacement go down. We just seen what you can buy things are way below replacement cost.

Ryan:

So as you look out at the different opportunities in real estate, are there any specific types of um whether it's sectors or deals that you think in general are more attractive now or trending to be more attractive now?

Josh:

I think there's uh opportunity to generate alpha wherever you have an expertise, right? So that's what I would start with for any of the investment, for any investor to take a look at. Do you have any edge or knowledge that you can utilize in what you're buying? And and for us, you know, we're operators. My my background is we are hands-on vertically integrated operators of real estate, and that's a big difference than just allocating to real estate, right? Buying and hoping that it's going to be passive. And so what we're looking to do is how do we buy something and add value to it, being a value-add investor? And in certain markets, we've seen dislocations because of the news headlines around uh we started off in retail. So when I was talking about the retail apocalypse, retail's dead, Amazon effect, that was 2010 to 2020 and beyond. Now it's the darling of the investment classes. It's amazing how the tides switch so quickly. We are experts in operating retail, right? We take that same operating knowledge, and what we did is we look at goods and services and delivery to people. And how do you do that? It's omnichannel. We were talking about omni-channel before people were saying what that actually was, but that was you have the online presence to gain a client, but then the delivery is shopping centers or distribution centers. So we balance it with a barbell of industrial. And the things that we started buying and that we continue to buy is in the industrial sector now. So our portfolio is pretty balanced between the two. And that's industrial, includes logistics, right? The distribution. So you look at port cities, which are getting just bludgeoned right now because of the tariffs. Again, short-term shocks, and this is a long-term investment horizon, a long-term strategy. We don't just change our strategies overnight, willy-nilly. We look at things for a long period of time, 10 years plus. I don't think it's easier to build in a port city or find good real estate in a port city. So we still like these port cities. Um, and so we're buying industrial logistics, manufacturing, and then flex. We talked a little bit about the rebalance of office. So you went from 20,000 square feet in that beautiful office tower in downtown, which had your accounting department, your marketing department, and all the other operations departments and your executives, and now, but you have a manufacturing facility, right? So now what you do, what do you do? You downsize from 20,000 feet to 3,000 or 5,000 feet. You keep the nice office with amenities so people can come there and use them. And you take the other 15,000 feet and you downsize that to 10,000 or 7,000 feet, and you put it in your manufacturing. And what's that called? That's called flex space, flexible space. And so where we found a dislocation in the market is actually in that manufacturing to flex space. Two things. Manufacturing, power is infrastructure. People talk about data center and everything else. It's really power, is what you're talking about. We like to buy power with that infrastructure because it's really hard to get. Allocation. And two, flex is still industrial, so you get industrial interest rates, so the banks still can understand industrial. They don't like office, but they love industrial. And you're getting slightly better pricing on the flex space because industrial buyers don't understand flex space and their box is very narrow, so they're just buying logistics or pure industrial per se. So there's been a dislocation in that market, so we're getting a higher return on the buy because of the market moving out, and we're getting still very good interest rates from the banks or the lenders. So we get to make that spread in between. So that's positive leverage, and that's a dislocation that's been created in the market. So that's one of the things that we've go after today.

Ryan:

Interesting. Um, okay, so on the other side of the coin, are there any specific areas in real estate, whether it's sectors or otherwise, that you would tread a little bit more cautiously on and maybe think there's a bit more risk?

Josh:

That's a great question. Um, I would say it comes back to the whole comment around expertise, right? We typically avoid operating business type real estate. So we're not a hospitality owner and operator. Uh there's great opportunities in that. There's uh people doing conversions, obviously, from kind of the the walk-up hospitality, you know, into multifamily. We're also avoiding call it direct development today. I still feel like there's, especially today with the disruptions in the market and the interest rate environment, it's created a chasm again or a gap of it's cheaper to buy than to build still. So why would I build and take that risk, that speculative risk? We're not spec developers. I don't want to ride that rollercoaster. I want to buy something existing that already has cash flow that can add more cash flow to it. So I would avoid I'm avoid we're avoiding development per se, hospitality or anything that has an operating business element to it, and just buying current cash flow and seeing where we can just add a little bit more to it.

Ryan:

Okay. Um I'm looking at the uh the clock here, and we've already gone a half an hour, so uh I appreciate you um sticking with me for uh for some time here. And you know, I'm I'm springing this on you, but um one of the questions that I try to ask my guests on the podcast is uh what books are you reading or have you read or are you planning to read that you would recommend people checking out? And this doesn't have to be a real estate book, this could be just you know, a Josh Volan likes this particular book. Are there any books that you uh would put on that list?

Josh:

Yeah, so um I always start with foundational books for me. And the first one is Mindset by Carolyn Dweck. So starting with her mindset, abundance versus scarcity, fear versus in my what I call the other side of fear, which is love, the push and pulls in our life. So I start with uh mindset. The second is grit. So Angela Duckworth, that's a good follow-on. She quotes Carolyn Dweck in her book. So, grit, how do we instill grit in our kids? How do we how does grit show up in our lives and how do we build that resilience? So grit. Um I would say nonviolent communication because uh I'm a father and I I want to learn how to be a better situational communicator as a leader, and that's been a very impactful book, a good one to read with my spouse as well. So it gives those tools. So when you combine those three, just kind of the wholesome leaderslash everyday life. And there's a lot of other books, but uh another book by Brooks, um, which is Uh he wrote with co-authored with Oprah, and that talks about you know just a bountiful life and the arrival fallacy of all of us chasing the horizon, you know, these people that are hard chargers and achievers and that arrival fallacy, right? Of if I do this, then I'll be happy, and just really appreciating the journey. And so I really appreciated that book. It was it was really well written. And uh so yeah, there's a handful of books.

Ryan:

Yeah, I really appreciate that. I haven't read any of those, so I'll have to add them to the list. Sounds good. Uh, but again, really uh appreciate your time and thanks for coming on the podcast. Um, hopefully we can do it again sometime down the road. And thanks to all of you as well for joining us on this episode of the First Trust ROI podcast. We'll see you next time.

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Ryan O. Issakainen, CFA | Senior Vice President | ETF Strategist

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