First Trust ROI Podcast
On the ROI podcast, we discuss some of the most important questions facing investment professionals today, ranging from macroeconomic views, to perspectives on the equity and fixed income markets, to insights on practice management. We aim to cut through the noise, examine the data, and provide fresh insights to investment professionals as they help their clients find better ways to invest…seeking to generate attractive returns on their investments.
First Trust ROI Podcast
Ep 76 | Bob Carey | New Leadership in Equity Markets…Will It Continue? | ROI Podcast
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Despite an ongoing war and shifting interest rate expectations, equity market performance favored small- and mid-cap stocks during the first half of 2026. Bob Carey explains some of the reasons this shift has occurred and breaks down the risks and opportunities on the horizon.
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Welcome And Market Setup
RyanAs we begin the second half of 2026, the equity market has begun to broaden. But where are the risks and opportunities that lie ahead? Joining me to discuss these questions is Bob Carey, Chief Market Strategist at First Trust. Thanks for joining us on this episode of the First Trust ROI podcast.
BobThe United States, from an economic perspective, from a wealth perspective, we have really separated ourselves from the Europeans, especially. When you look at the data, it's just it's amazing how how much wealth has been created the last 25 years or so relative to the Europeans. And you've been to Europe, I've been to Europe, and love going there. It's a great place to visit, and and and obviously we're we're doing business over there and whatnot, but it's it's pretty obvious that our standard of living is higher than their standard of living. And it if if you were there 30 years ago, you didn't see that, you didn't feel that. It's it you can really see that the Europeans have not you just you don't see these these companies created like we have. Uh you look at GDP and you look at GDP per capita, uh, they they really have fallen behind. And so I think you know, they come over here and they see what we have, they they go to Costco or they go to Bucky's and all these different places, and it's kind of amusing we get a kick
Why US Wealth Outpaces Europe
Bobout of it. Yeah. Um and and it's it's it it really exemplifies the financial differences and the well the wealth differences between, you know, the about the same population, the U.S. and Europe, and and yet we've we've seen our standard of living go up higher quite a bit.
RyanFor years the economies have been linked to some degree, um, and there's been a lot of talk and some evidence that it's happening of deglobalization. Um do you do you think that that's a long-term trend that will that will play out over the next decade or so? And I guess there's different ways of looking at that, whether it's deglobalization meaning kind of with Europe and the U.S. or you know with Asia and some of the manufacturing there. And any any thoughts?
BobI think I I I I don't know that I ever really believed that we would actually uh unless we put a moat up around the country and we had these massive tariffs and whatnot, there was there was concern that we would deglobalize. Maybe we have somewhat, but I just spent a few minutes looking at the um at the at the numbers from you know, for on trade last month, and our exports are going up, our imports are going up. So this idea that somehow we aren't trading with the world or we don't have cas certainly capital flows going back and forth around the world, I I don't know that that's I I think fears of that might have been overdone.
RyanYeah. Well that's interesting because you know, my hometown, Syracuse, New York, we've got the micron uh chip
Deglobalization Reality Check
Ryanfab that's uh is finally being uh started after a couple years of of trying to start. But it's not like they're shutting down chip manufacturing in Taiwan or in Korea. Aaron Powell They're just adding to that capacity and building in the U.S. to maybe diversify the sources of those chips. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
BobYeah, that's certainly part of it. The other the other the other reality is that that we cannot make chips fast enough globally.
RyanAbsolutely true.
BobI mean, we just we we literally are in this capital spending boom, and even um you know, companies in the memory business, you mentioned Micron, that was always perceived to be, you know, memory and storage were always perceived to be commodities. And all the money was in processing and all these different things. And and um and and that's you know maybe still true to some extent, but all of a sudden you've got memory companies and storage companies that because of this explosion in the amount of data that is being um created, short, shared, stored, I mean, all of a sudden we don't have enough memory.
RyanYeah.
BobUh which is which is crazy. Yeah. Think about it.
RyanAs a result, they have pricing power like they've never had before.
BobAbsolutely. They've never had pricing power really. Memory prices just literally collapse every year. And so it's all about getting the volume up if you're if you're a company like Micron. Um now you've got volume going through the roof at the same time that that you've you've got shortages. You're running it at full capacity. So uh you know, at some point we will probably see them, I would have to think, overbuild. Um, you know, there is going to be kind of the other side, any kind of capital spending boom like this, you know, companies will at some point overdo it. Um whether it's just too much supply or just not enough demand or combination of the two, we'll see. But at least for the time being, it it is it is amazing.
RyanAaron Powell And it takes a long time to build out some of that added capacity for something like memory chips or chips in general. I mean, it's not like you can you can whip up a factory in a month. It's it's a multi-year process. Trevor Burrus, Jr. Exactly. So how do you actually how do you tell when you're at a point where you've started a factory that you're you know gonna finish it at a time where there's still that demand?
BobThat's right. That's the problem. And I think that's the the whole issue
Chip Boom And Memory Pricing Power
Bobwith tech in general and the the AI capital spending boom that we're going through right now is we you know we don't know if there's gonna be a hiccup along the way, if there's gonna be a slowdown. You've got massive investments, you know, literally hundreds of billions of dollars in capital being committed. Something that we you really don't know for sure if there's gonna be a return on that investment. We've we talked about this before. Um I think the market right now is starting to wonder right now whether or not the all this investment is gonna pay off. If you look at the markets this year, um the so-called Mag 7 have lagged quite a bit this year. And we've we see, you know, there's nothing to suggest from an earnings perspective there's anything wrong with these companies. Earnings estimates are holding up. Uh, but you can really tell that the market is wondering whether or not these companies can withstand this. You know, we haven't maybe seen interest rates come down this year, which is potentially playing into part of this. You know, the cost of capital is uh arguably a little bit higher now than it was at the beginning of the year. Uh and so you know, there might be something to that, you know, where the market is is, you know, with higher interest rates, the higher cost of capital might be of impacting valuations for some of those companies. But um at the same time, the market has definitely broadened out this year.
RyanYeah, uh it's interesting because I think the assumption that many people would have had if you told them coming into this year that rates were not only um going to not likely be cut two or three times, which is what we thought, but in fact it was gonna start pricing in a rate increase this year. I would have expected that that would have hit hardest to some of those smaller companies that have more need for capital. So their cost of capital goes up. It's gonna have a lot more of an impact typically. But when we look at sort of this broadening of performance in the markets, you know, the equal weight versus the market cap weight at S P 500, they're pretty neck and neck right now as we sit on you know July 8th.
BobYeah, equal weight's about 3 percent ahead for the return.
RyanIt's even better.
BobBut but as of July 8th.
RyanWhen I look at um mid and small cap, it's even better than that. I mean, small caps have sort of run away with uh performance year to date in comparison to mid-caps, which have done better than equal weight, which has done better than market cap waiting. I wouldn't have expected that with the fact that rates kind of have shifted this year.
BobI think it's earnings. Uh when you look at earnings um estimates today, and you look at where we were at the beginning
AI Capex Doubts And Rate Pressure
Bobof the year, mid-cap and small cap earnings estimates have held up this year. Uh it seems like for the last four, five, six years, every year, really the last five years, every year we look at earnings estimates, and by the middle part of the year, and certainly by the end of the year, um large cap earnings have been there and mid-cap and small cap earnings haven't been there. And I think that I think investors are taking notice of the fact that earnings are finally beginning to break out from being in a range. Yeah. Yes. And I think that's part of it. You know, we saw this with international in 2025. It was a good year for international. Uh, it really wasn't there I can't think of any particular catalyst except for maybe the weak dollar in the first half of the year that would have prompted that. Um and I think that I think now this year it's it's the small cap and mid-cap and you know the SP 493, if you want to call it that, that have that have finally started to participate. And I think it's just price discovery. I think the market sees the differences in valuations between these segments of the market. And we've got you know, we've got prevailing interest rates of under four and a half percent. It's not like rates are high. Um you know, companies have done well in this environment with rates at, you know, between three and a half and four percent, four and a half percent. That's I don't think that's an impediment to companies making money, making investments.
RyanYeah, that's a good point. Um because the cost of capital of those companies isn't set by what the Fed does in the short term. It's really the you know, they're borrowing a spread over the seven to ten-year range different. Exactly. And that hasn't changed a whole lot.
BobExactly. And I think I think technology, I think, you know, it's funny, all this capital spending by you know the hyperscalers and businesses. I mean, every every successful company these days, I don't care what industry you're in, you're you're probably spending more money on technology. And you know, you would have to think that there there's gotta be a return on that if you're spending that money. So obviously the companies that are providing the software, providing the you know, the the the equipment, um are gonna be pri are profitable in this environment. But you know, the uh ultimately what has to happen is the smaller companies in many cases that are spending all this money um they've got to be seeing a return on that investment. And I think that I think that's I think that's starting to happen. And I think it's probably been happening for a long time.
RyanSo you think that's where the earnings growth is is coming from from those smaller companies that are getting a return on some of their invested capital?
BobI would I would have to think so. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I I you know, you you you look at capital spending um in the nature of capital spending going back over the last thirty years, uh we've got to the point now where more than half of all capital spending across the entire economy is technology related in in some some way, shape, or form. So I I think that I think you wouldn't see, you know, some companies are spending it just to just to try to compete, and some companies are are spending it to get better and better at what they do. And uh we we see it in a lot of different industries. I mean, I think retailing retailing is probably the one industry that, you know, has been around a long time. The nature of retailing now, a lot of being online is different. But the business model is hasn't changed. It's about getting
Small Caps Lead On Earnings
Bobinventory, selling it, and doing it all over again, right? And whether you do it through a store, whether you do it through a warehouse, um, you know, you can really see the the better comp companies in retailing have gotten better at at managing their inventory and managing their their businesses. You the returns that we see uh are significantly higher today for the better companies in retailing now versus 30, 40 years ago.
RyanYou know, all the capital spending that's taking place uh to build out the the ecosystem of artificial intelligence. That's where a lot of the CapEx has been directed. Is there a way to tell what sort of companies are gonna maybe boost their their productivity and efficiency? Do you have a sense of um you know that the sort of company or the sort of industry that that might benefit from that? And there'll be I let me interrupt myself. Um I think there's gonna be a whole lot that we don't know. But uh, early on, is there anything?
BobYeah, I think I think I think we're still grappling with it. I think, you know, as consumers, um, you know, I think pretty much everybody now who has a smartphone, who spends time on a computer, is probably messing around with this, trying to figure out what this stuff is all about. Um I I I think that I think companies um are certainly delving into this in a major way. When we start seeing stories about companies blowing through their budget uh for have for tokens for some for some of these programs, yeah. It it tells you that there is just there there's there's a they can see the immediate impact of of you know what what what can be done with some of these models. So we're we're going from using technology to make processes better than we already do to maybe using technology to become you know for for new businesses and new new things, discovering new things and maybe some things that have never been done before. You know, improving materials, improving engineering, you know, biotech companies obviously are gonna spend probably a lot of money using AI going forward. So I think it's I think it's you know, it's I think it's gonna be companies that have always been tech driven, whether they're tech companies or not, but companies that have utilized technology, um I I would I would have to think that it's gonna be very broad. I think a lot of companies are gonna spend a lot of money on this.
RyanWhat do you think about some of the more forgotten sectors? Um and what I mean by that is you know there's been so much invested in technology and the AI-related companies, a lot of even some of the industrials, but at the same time, you've got the energy companies, you've got some of the materials companies, some of the staples, some of the defensives, um like healthcare, that have just gotten so much smaller as a percentage of the index.
BobTrevor Burrus Well, I think some of those industries you mentioned, energy and materials, you you you're always gonna have a cyclical nature to that. You know, you've got the price of oil, no matter what, energy companies, um, you know, oil and gas companies are always gonna be very dependent upon the price of oil. And you we saw that at the beginning of the year, when the price of oil went up, these companies
Energy Cycles And Natural Gas Demand
Bobdid well, when oil prices come came back, came back down, uh, these stocks went down immediately. Um, you've got companies in that space that I I would argue have had a hard time breaking out of that, you know, kind of traditional lower return dependence on you know the commodities that they're selling. Um companies have gotten better, I would argue, at that, but it's still a very, very capital-intensive industry, you know, oil and gas. Um you know, they've gotten better and better at obviously getting oil to the market and gas to the market, but it's taken a lot of capital spending and the returns are not all that high. Uh so when when when commodity prices fluctuate, these stocks are gonna have a lot of sensitivity. What's interesting about I the natural gas prices to me are the are the one thing that I find the most interesting as it relates to AI. You and I did a meeting last year, and you had some great information about the additional capacity of electricity that we need for AI and where is that gonna come from? And it's natural gas. I mean, we we literally can't build enough gas-powered electric plants. Yeah.
RyanAnd there's a backlog of turbines.
BobYeah, I mean the turbines cannot be made fast enough uh to make this happen. And you know, so initially uh when the conflict broke out in in uh in the Middle East, we did see the price of natural gas spike initially. And then immediately it came right back down again. Oil prices stayed high, but natural gas prices came back down because most natural gas is produced and and stored and and used locally. You don't really we don't transport it the way we do oil all around the world. Uh we have pipelines, but for the most part it's serving a region of of a of a of a country or even uh you know across the country. And we just got this clut of natural gas. And thank goodness, because we can't if we're gonna if the net price of natural gas were trading like the price of oil, then that would be a huge impediment, I would have to think, in building capacity for electricity. So it's I I think I think I think volume is gonna be very strong, I think, for natural gas going forward. But the pricing is tough.
RyanYeah.
BobIt makes it hard to own the stocks for those companies because you're just you keep waiting for the price of gas to go up sustainably, natural gas, and it it just hasn't happened.
RyanAnd it's complex to try to try to develop the infrastructure to make it a more globalized market for natural gas, for like liquefied natural gas. Right. There is some exports, but it's certainly much more difficult and expensive than just sending something through a pipeline than it is to, you know, cool it and put it on a uh ship and send it overseas to Japan or to Europe or something like that. Yep.
BobExactly. I do think uh the liquefying the natural gas, these these terminals take a long time. You know, we're talking about semiconductors and building a plant. It's the same thing. It's just these things take a long time to um to build. And uh but I you can you can see the numbers going up for natural gas exports there. It's like a hockey stick. So the demand the demand is there. We are the low-cost producer, which is good. Um but at some point, you know, you would think that that would raise prices, but so far it hasn't.
RyanYeah. Um so what areas are we not thinking about? What uh I mean, there's we've we've talked a lot about um, you know, the broadening trade this year. Um we've talked about some of the opportunities in in um things like you know, utilities, which all of a sudden got really interesting uh over the last year or two, um, in you know, some of the industrial build out. Um are there any areas that are kind of off the radar for a lot of investors that you think, you know, we're we're kind of missing out on this?
BobYeah, I have I have to admit, I I am on the one hand, I'm very I'm happy
Diversification Rebalancing And Investor Nerves
Bobthat that our call that a broadening is gonna happen is happening. And I do th I do think this is gonna go on for a long time. I don't I think the leadership in the market over the next three to five years is is it's gonna be I think more of an equal opportunity across the market. I think from a style perspective, big caps, large, you know, mid-caps, small caps, um, I think they're all gonna kind of take turns over the next couple of years. Um I do think it's kind of interesting. All of a sudden, you know, the Mag 7 lagging the way they have this year, uh, all of a sudden a lot of those stocks are undervalued. And so on the one hand, I'm like advocating, hey, it's time to go broader.
RyanYeah.
BobBut at the same time, I'm like, all of a sudden, you look at at the price targets of some of these companies um in the Mag 7, it's like and and where they're trading, you can tell right now there's there's a lot of skepticism, a lot of concern that these companies might not meet expectations. And um and and yet I I don't know that I believe that. I think these companies are gonna probably continue to execute by and large, not maybe not all of them. Uh so I think having a, you know, I I was never in the camp that said sell all your Mag 7 companies. Um But I think that I think that as much as anything, the last couple of years have exemplified the need to be diversified. You need to have some international. Uh two or three years ago, everybody's like, ah, I don't have any international. I I had that conversation with a lot of financial advisors that they had completely given up on international. All of a sudden, you know, that's doing well. And then the conversation, I I'd mentioned broadening it out, and it's like, no, I'm I'm happy with, you know, XYZ stock or the my SP 500 uh market cap weighted fund or my Nasdaq 100 fund. And and it's like, well, what about small cap and mid-cap? Ah, I just I I just I've I've been burned by that. I just, you know, and all of a sudden they're starting to do better. So I think as much as anything, it's a reminder that you do you need you have to be diversified. You can't you can't ride just one uh horse in this in this in this market long term.
RyanYeah. And and maybe even just the the concept of rebalancing.
BobYeah. Um, I mean it's blocking and tackling. I mean, it's it's it is blocking. Some of the basic concepts. Yeah. And so when that's what happened, when the market gets so concentrated like it has the last couple of years, we tend to forget about the need. You know, just these are these are these are kind of evergreen concepts that you need to be diversified. You need to have some diversification. And um but it's interesting, you know, we've we've had a lot of success with uh, you know, alternative strategies. A lot of investors have been putting a lot of money into alternative, you know, uh strategies that keep you keep you invested in the S ⁇ P or whatever index, the equity index, but there is, you know, obviously collars around them. There could be a floor or a collar. Um you know, the demand for that has been through the roof. Right. And yet we've got a market that's done really well. It's like you you would think the demand for something like that would be strong after a down market. And here we are, we've been in the spool market now really since 2022. Yeah. And and and yet that's been one of the hotter products in the marketplace, which is kind of ironic.
RyanYeah, what does that say about investor psychology at this point?
BobIt says everything about psychology that investors are they're enjoying the the market going up, but at the at the there there's there is an eye towards an exit. They're they're they're waiting for a fire to burn out and they're walking into the room and they're looking for the exits. Yeah. Is that a good thing?
RyanTrevor Burrus, Jr.: So how what is do you have a good what that means for the how long the cycle can go? Because it's it seems like cycles end when everyone is like, you know, that's my point.
BobTrevor Burrus, Jr.: You know, I keep track of, and I've been doing this for many, many years. I keep track of the uh the American Association of Individual Investors. They poll their members every week. They've been doing it now for decades. And we've never had that surge in bullishness in those surveys that you typically see when the party is about to be reaching its its like at some point the punch bowl. When the cops are coming. Exactly. Ever since uh COVID, uh we we really haven't had one of those surges where we get to levels of bullishness above 50
Healthcare Biotech Pricing Power And M&A
Bobpercent, 60 percent, uh like we've seen in the past when the market is peaking. So um I I th I think that skepticism, that concern, uh, you know, we the market went down obviously during COVID, got beat up. We got beat up in 22. Uh the financial crisis is starting to become more and more of a distant memory. But uh, you know, a lot of folks remember those, those years. Those are very difficult years. And even the early part of this of this century, you know, we had two or three years of very, very difficult markets, and a lot of a lot of folks remember those markets. So I think that, you know, we've we saw a lot of demand for cryptocurrencies here a couple of years ago. It seems like anything but just straight ahead investing in the stock market and betting on the market. Uh there's been all these kind of ancillary things that have popped up that have that have garnered a lot of attention and have attracted a lot of capital.
RyanWe've talked about the healthcare sector in uh previous episodes, but I'm curious what your uh what your take is now. Um, you know, biotech in particular. Uh I've always kind of looked at that as an area where you know maybe you can use some of the AI as research tools to make yourself more productive and efficient. Right. Um It seems like it's a bit of a bifurcated area. Some some stocks have done really well, some have done poorly. Um any thoughts on healthcare and biotech?
BobYeah, I've we've written about this quite a bit over the years. Um, you know, just from a longer term perspective. We have a lot of folks getting older and the you know, the population is certainly aging. We're gonna probably spend a lot of money, a lot more money on healthcare uh in the years ahead. We already are. Um I I've always thought of you know buying the better companies in that space is a great way to offset you know increasing costs and and and so forth. So you know, you we know you have we have this liability down the road, all of us as individuals, and it's like, well, why not own some of the companies that are going to be part of the spending that we're gonna be inevitably doing down the road? And I I think that um I think investors have been focused on uh price controls, I think in particular. I think concern about, you know, is there going to be a market driving these prices for these products and services down the road, or is the government gonna play a heavier hand um in this? And I and I think we've we got the answer to that the last several years. We we do have more government involvement in pricing of some of these products. And so I think investors have been really focused on finding those companies that, you know, maybe those concerns are not as much there. I th I think, you know, you if you're looking at biotech companies and maybe medical device companies in particular, um, that are at the at the cutting edge of things, um these companies are gonna have pricing power no matter what our policies may be from a government perspective. And and those stocks have done well. Biotech's done great this year. Uh you know, merger activity is picking up, and I think that's um I think that's one thing that we didn't see a lot of during uh the Biden years, and then now we have uh all of a sudden we're starting to see merger activity beginning to pick up in that space. So I think I think investors recognize that you know some of the big farmer companies, some of the you know, the big companies that have been you know, they're they're pretty mature companies. They're for them to grow they they need to make investments in some of these areas. Um but there's no guarantee that those investments are gonna pay off. So there's been a lot of uh differentiation between companies that have had success in certain products and weight loss. I mean, it's if you've got a
IPOs Return And The Quality Test
Bobgreat weight loss franchise, your stocks have done really, really well. If you've got a great um, say cancer franchise, you haven't seen those stocks do very well. I mean, it's it's an interesting thing to watch. Yeah. Yeah. So selection has become critical, I think, in that in that space.
RyanYeah. Um one of the other things that has emerged more this year, you mentioned MA, uh, but we've begun to see um more, so that's consolidation. We've begun to see more new issues in IPOs that have started, you know, SpaceX was one of one of the recent ones. Yeah. There's talk of uh some of the AI related companies IPOing. Um any thoughts on that whole beginning of a new cycle of IPOs, what that means for for maybe the market psychology or anything in particular?
BobYeah, it's it's interesting that we they've it seems like we're getting a steady flow of of IPO. I we've definitely had a lot more companies go public this year uh the last couple of years. Uh I know you had Dr. Schuster on recently, and you know, i it's kind of a natural thing when you've been in a bull market for a couple of years. Companies are going to look to the capital markets to raise to raise money. Um the valuations are relatively high, and it seems like um the the the the idea of going public is getting more attractive, I think, for companies. Um I I think I think a lot of it is just it's the it's gonna be the quality of companies that go public. And uh every cycle that we go through, the quality of companies in the late stages of a market cycle begin to come down. And you get a lot of me too companies, a lot of copycat. Um in the case of SpaceX, you you can't make that argument that it's a me too. It's a it's one of one companies like it. There's you know, there's companies that certainly want to compete with them and and do some of the same things and maybe maybe try to do better, but there's nobody really like them. So I think that I think if you're if a company is unique, it's got something um that is perceived as being uh uh valuable, uh, and the companies are growing rapidly. It it makes sense to go public. You've got a lot of folks who would like to get some liquidity at the same time. You have a lot of people that would like to invest in some of these companies and they haven't been able to.
RyanYou know, one of the trends that we've seen in the financial industry and in society in general has been more and more podcasts.
Podcast Picks And Final Takeaways
RyanUm I've enjoyed being a guest on a few podcasts recently. Uh we have a lot of guests come onto our podcast and it helps um helps me understand what's going on in the world and you know, investing and and um helps me to be more informed because I get to ask questions from really smart people like you. So my question for you, Bob, is um what podcasts have you come across that um you have found particularly interesting?
BobYeah, I think I think the uh the all-in podcast in particular has been one that I, you know, there's a lot of buzz, you know, a couple of years ago with those guys, and and I I I'm finding myself pretty much listening to them almost kind of a required thing. Like every time they drop something, I I I watch, uh, listen to them. The great thing about podcasts, obviously, is you can you can be driving, you could be in a plane, you could be doing anything almost. You could be mowing the lawn, you could, you could be doing stuff like that, listening to that. But I'd say the all-in podcast. And then another one that I find fascinating um that that I've been listening to more and more over the last couple of years is something called acquired. Um really interesting. Yeah, they're just amazing. Um if you ever wanted to do kind of a deep dive into the history of companies in particular and in industries and the evolution of industries, and uh it's you know, it's stuff like that. It's the great thing about the ecosystem of of podcasts is you you have access to these things and you can listen to them and you can you know you don't have to agree with everybody, but it it is it is an amazing time that we can uh glean from what other people are saying.
RyanAaron Powell Yeah. Yeah. Well, hopefully um we're contributing to some of that uh some of that intellectual capital as well. You you absolutely are. Well, Bob, uh once again, I want to thank you for coming on the podcast. Appreciate it. You were, of course, our first guest on the first trust ROI podcast, and you are now our latest guest on the podcast. Hopefully not the last. Hopefully not. Hopefully not. And thanks to all of you as well for joining us on this episode of the First Trust ROI Podcast. We will see you next time.