Could the Ocean Floor Decide the Future of National Security?

What is deep-sea mining, and why are countries and companies racing to the ocean floor for critical minerals?

In this episode of GNSI’s “At the Boundary” podcast, host Jim Cardoso speaks with Dr. LindaNhon about the growing global debate over deep-sea mining and what it could mean for national security, critical minerals, and environmental risk.

The two dive into the mining of polymetallic nodules, mineral-rich deposits found on the seabed that contain cobalt, copper, and manganese. These materials are essential for technologies ranging from electric vehicle batteries to defense systems and advanced industrial supply chains. As demand for critical minerals rises, deep-sea mining is increasingly being viewed as both an economic opportunity and a geopolitical challenge.

Dr. Nhon explains the key questions shaping the future of seabed mining: What are the environmental consequences of disturbing the ocean floor? Who should regulate access to these underwater resources? And how can governments balance the need for mineral security with scientific transparency and international cooperation?

If you want to understand how the competition for ocean resources could shape the future of energy, defense, and global power, tune in to the episode! It not only sheds light on the matter at hand, but also offers modern solutions for policy makers and officials. 

Links From the Episode:

• Tampa Summit 6 Registration

• Rob and Arman’s article for National Interest

• U.S. Naval Institute “War with Iran: General Frank McKenzie Analyzes the Campaign” Episode with General McKenzie

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At the Boundary  from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida,  features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus.

The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.

Look for our other publications and products on our website publications page.

Transcript

SPEAKERS

Linda Nhon, Jim Cardoso, Speaker 1

Jim Cardoso  00:00

Jim, hello everyone. Welcome to this week's episode of at the boundary, the podcast from the global and national security Institute at the University of South Florida. I'm Jim Cardoso, Senior Director for GNSI, and your host for at the boundary. Joining us on today's episode is Dr Linden young, a resident research fellow here at GNSI. She's working on an upcoming article focused on deep sea mining of critical minerals. She's stopping by the podcast today to provide a glimpse into her findings and recommendations. First though, couple GNSI notes. Tomorrow marks the opening day of GNSI Tampa summit six, titled cracks in the lamp, freeing the nuclear Genie. We've gathered a fantastic group of speakers and experts who will be addressing a wide range of global nuclear questions and challenges, including nuclear deterrence and proliferation, rogue nuclear states, the golden dome and many others, considering the globally catastrophic implications of these topics, it may be the most impactful conference we've hosted to date. On day one, the headline speakers will be two retired four star generals, John Highton, former commander of US Strategic Command, and Frank McKenzie, former commander of US Central Command. We'll also hear from five time ambassador and former assistant secretary of state, Christopher Hill on Wednesday, former Special Assistant to the President, Frank Miller, will take the podium. We're also excited for the chance that day to spotlight the research of USF students, the next generation of national security leaders in this space. There's still time to register, and there's no cost to attend. We'll drop a link in the show notes. Additionally, as the war in Iran continues, we wanted to mention how the GNSI team is providing expert analysis for various media platforms around the world. Our Executive Director General McKenzie has appeared on multiple media outlets providing his expertise, most recently on the US Naval Institute's proceedings podcast for a close examination of the current campaign as the former commander of CENTCOM, his analysis of the conflict in Iran and across that region is illuminating and unique. I recommend you seek out that episode on YouTube. It's only been available few days, and it's already one of their most viewed. There'll be a link to that in the show notes as well. Also GNSI resident Research Fellow, Dr Arman makmudian, is providing expert analysis of the war in Iran and the Middle East writ large, for a number of global media outlets, including Fox News, TRT world, Bloomberg and defense 24 his expertise has been in high demand, and I don't think he slept since March 1. If you'd like to keep up with Armon, we encourage you to follow him on LinkedIn. NX. Finally, we're excited to announce that our conference report from the first Florida security forum is now published on our website. Florida's maritime edge, built through leadership ready for what's next, analyzes the strategic priorities and provides recommendations for cyber preparedness, Workforce Education and autonomous readiness of Florida's deep water ports. Dr Tad schnaufer, GNSI strategy and research manager, coordinated a large team of contributors for this report. We'll drop a link in the show notes. All right, let's bring to the studio our featured guest today, Dr Lyndon Young is a resident research fellow here at GNSI with strategic areas of focus on technology and policy. She previously served as a Program Officer at the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and medicine. Currently, she's working on a new research article focused on deep sea mining of critical minerals and resources. Lenin young, welcome to at the boundary. Thank you so much for being

Linda Nhon  04:09

here today. Thank you so much for having me, Jim,

Jim Cardoso  04:13

to start a conversation in your article. You open by discussing the resurgence in seabed mining and the excavation of poly metallic modules, or pmns, since that's not a term that most people, including myself, are familiar with, can you describe what pmns are and why they're important?

Linda Nhon  04:33

Yes, definitely. So if we break the word polymetallic into two, can think of poly as multiple metallic being metals and nodules, I guess, like nodules rocks balls, yeah, yeah. So polymetallic nodules are rocks found at the bottom, the sea floor, and these rocks contain multiple metals. So hence the word poly. Metallic and the three main metals found in these clusters of rocks are cobalt, copper and manganese. So that's the term of art that those in oceanography or seabed mining, they like to use to describe these rocks.

Jim Cardoso  05:20

So what's so? I mean, what's so big about cobalt, copper and manganese and those particular metals, and I think your papers mostly about cobalt, and I know you've been doing a lot of research on cobalt, but maybe can just Okay, so people hearing that I cobalt? Yeah, big deal. Why? Why do I care about cobalt? Why do I care about copper? Copper inverter. Why do I care about manganese. Why are they important?

Linda Nhon  05:42

Yes, so cobalt. I focus a lot on cobalt because that's the high value commodity in these rocks. And from a company's perspective, they want to be able to make generate revenue and profit, and so the rock should have something of high value that they can sell. And the reason why Cobalt is of high value is because it's found in electric vehicles, specifically lithium ion batteries. The reason why it's important is because cobalt, by default, it acts as a coordinator, so it coordinates to oxygen, six different oxygens, usually in the battery architecture. And this type of coordination allows the lithium as it's moving between the cathode and the anode, anode, so the charge and discharge function. The cobalt allows the lithium to migrate back and forth seamlessly without jamming up, forming like these dendrites. And once dendrites form, I'm sure, if you've heard about all these batteries catching on fire, yes, that's that's part of the reason is because the dendrite formation, but the presence of the cobalt allows the lithium ion to move freely, so not jamming up. That's one reason why Cobalt is important in applications, but another application for which Cobalt is important is in defense systems, and particular, when it's coordinated, like I mentioned in the lithium ion batteries, the Cobalt is coordinated to oxygen in the weapon systems, it's coordinated to another metal muscle, another critical mineral is samarium. And so when cobalt and samarium are coordinated together in this alloy, alloy is just another fancy word for materials of mixed metals.

Jim Cardoso  07:40

I remember that from my high school chemistry class. I remember what alloys are, okay, so I'm one for one in that. Sorry, keep going.

Linda Nhon  07:48

So I can stop there. In that sense that like cobalt and Samarium, are used in weapon systems. They're using precision guided missiles, for example, they're used in coatings and,

Jim Cardoso  08:06

well, the precision guided munitions especially. I mean, that's obviously key right now. I mean, because right now the United States is expending a lot of what we call PGMS, a lot of PGMS in Iran and in fact, you know, just all the news at the Department of Defense is asking for another $200 billion to replace precision guide munitions. So again, that's going to be a whole lot more cobalt that's required by the companies that that that build these missiles for the United States government. So it's, I mean, you know, for people who don't think that Cobalt is important, it's right now, front and center, extremely important for creating these, these missile systems, the weapon capabilities.

Linda Nhon  08:45

Yes, that's exactly right, and that's part of the reason why seabed mining has come into the conversation. Because these rocks at the bottom, the sea floor that has been there for millions and millions of years contain cobalt, which, as you know, we just mentioned, is a high value item for these applications.

Jim Cardoso  09:04

Yeah, and, you know, I was in, I was in the Air Force. I didn't my job in the Air Force, I didn't launch any missiles. I was a pilot, but I was different kind of aircraft, but, but I can understand that it's, it's a precision guide, and munitions capability has been a US advantage for decades in terms of how we wage war, especially from the air. So, yeah, it's an important thing. And also from the commercial sector. As you say, EVs are just explo motion, probably a bad word to use when we talk about the batteries are just growing exponentially in the amount of EVs that are being used. And so this Cobalt is it's key to be able to build these EVs.

Linda Nhon  09:43

So there's the aspect of cobalt contributing to the safety features of lithium ion batteries. But I wanted to circle back to what you were mentioning earlier, earlier, Jim, which is the union used to fly planes and. Um, yes. In addition to being used in precision guided missiles, Sumerian Cobalt is also used as coating on aircrafts for stealth missions, yes. And one other really interesting aspect about the Sumerian cobalt feature on these coatings is when radar systems, let's say enemy Raiders are trying to detect what's in the air. If there's any aircrafts usually the way it's detected is the radar sends out a signal. It hits an flying object. That object then reflects back the signal, and the enemy can determine where in the air, that aircraft or object is what makes Sumerian cobalt coating unique or special, is that in war environments where radar signals are being sent out, it absorbs the signal, so once It absorbs the signal, there's no signal that transmits back to the radar, so the enemy has no idea what is out there and but you probably already know that's a very expensive feature to have,

Jim Cardoso  11:13

very expensive it's, it's you talk about, and stealth and precision guided munitions are in the Air Force. We turn them as offsets. These are, these are, these are key points in the Air Force's growth where a just a significant leap ahead and a capability made a significant difference in how we wage war from the air and stealth and precision guide munitions are two of the main offsets that the Air Force will talk about. And what you're saying is that this cobalt, this cobalt samarium linkage, for lack of better term for the non chemist in the room, is key to that. And I remember when the you know, I mean now stealth, you've got the F 30 5f, 22 the b2 the new B 21 bomber that's coming out. All are leveraging stealth to a high degree. But I remember when the f1 17 came out, and that was the first stealth aircraft, and there was a lot of it was a lot of us at the angles. It had some weird angles. It built in, but a lot of it was in the stealth coating, and it was classified. And nobody, you know, only a few people know how to do it. But I just remember reading how it was so challenging to work with in that, because of a regular aircraft, if you have some kind of ding on it, you just paint it. You can paint it. Not so with these stealth coatings, it's incredibly challenging to work with, and incredibly time consuming and obviously expensive as well, more than just a coat of paint. Yeah, yeah.

Linda Nhon  12:39

Like so you can imagine, when you paint a wall, for example, you just keep adding the same layers of paint over at the end you let you do one coat, wait, let it dry, put another coat, but it's the same paint. But I think in the engineering of the coating for the Sumerian cobalt, each layer is engineered differently to absorb a different frequency of the radar. So not only as each layer of paint or coating for the Sumerian Cobalt is different, it also has to be engineered to absorb energy in a different way and dissipate the energy in a different way. Yeah, so when there's a crack in the system, that means there's multiple different entities that have been severed. It's in the paint.

Jim Cardoso  13:21

I mean, that's okay. We're not going to walk down rabbit hole too far. But, I mean, but there's a lot I mean, point being that from both a a national defense perspective and also a commercial perspective, what we're talking about is incredibly critical. It's incredibly important now. And you talk about how the appetite, again, for pmns is ravenous. That's the draft I saw, quote, unquote, ravenous. And the ocean but, and the ocean floor does hold nearly untold natural resources to fill that demand. But there are significant obstacles as well, which you talk about in the article. So let's walk through these obstacles a little bit. And the first one is competition from terrestrial mines. Now, can these land based mines keep up with the demand, and also, Aren't there some geopolitical instabilities associated with these land based mines? Yes.

Linda Nhon  14:12

So before we go into the ocean, there are existing terrestrial mines that you just mentioned, the Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC produces 70 to 80% of the cobalt in the world. The US, the United States government has brokered a peace deal between DRC and Rwanda. How effective is it on the ground right now? I don't know. I'm not there, but

Jim Cardoso  14:49

probably, knowing the history of that part of the world, we can maybe assume it's not that effective, that it's still a little bit turbulent over there.

Linda Nhon  14:57

Yes, I can. Agree with that. So in that deal, there was another doc, another agreement that was signed, which is called the Strategic Partnership Agreement. And in that agreement, the United States has asked DRC to give preferential treatment to US companies in securing the cobalt coming out of the mines. So the US government has brokered, in addition to the peace deal, a business deal to secure cobalt. So that from a seabed mining perspective, it's a little hard to enter a market like that, when there's already the US government, which is a customer, has already secured a supplier, yeah, yeah. So that makes it a little tricky. And in addition, if it's not the DRC, I do want to backpedal to what the actual demand is for national security application. So like the weapon systems that Sumerian cobalt coatings that we were just talking about in terms of the total global demand, and you imagine a pie chart, only 9% of that demand comes from super alloys. Everything else comes for that demand comes from battery applications. So if we're talking about strictly national security purposes like defense applications or aerospace applications, that's only 9% and we, the United States government, can secure that, if not from DRC, the cobalt from Allied countries like Australia and Canada, which have their own minds. And just to update, I wrote this paper about a month and a half ago, just now in March, the United States Geological Survey is partnering with Mexico to do aerial surveys in New Mexico and areas bordering New Mexico and Mexico to look for reservoirs that also includes cobalt, in addition to other critical minerals.

Jim Cardoso  17:18

Okay, interesting. So, I mean, it's, it's, you know, it's intrigued. What I take away from that. I mean, obviously, all the, all the, all the information, but also that this, this is all changing rapidly. You know, like you said, you drafted this a month and a half ago, which is not that long ago, and things have already changed since then, and because of just again, like you said, this ravenous need for this, for this cobalt, another obstacle you talk about is environmental challenges. You know, if you're doing seabed mining, you're going to impact the seabed environment. Do you have an idea of what those impacts would be and how we'd mitigate them? Yes.

Linda Nhon  17:53

So one of the nice things about being at USF is we had the college marine science and they have a robust curriculum and department for studying ocean science, and they helped host well in partnership with the International marine mineral society, they invited me to attend and learn. And from that meeting, there is a lot of different scientific research going on in terms of studying the marine environment. In particular, there is this thing called plume dynamics. So when the polymetallic nodules are excavated from the sea floor, there's obviously a lot of sediments. So as the robot the robot rolls across the sea floor and collects the rocks, it also the rocks has to get sucked up to the surface, and that's about a 5000 meter journey up. And so when that happens, there's a lot of the sediment forms or moves up and it forms a plume, like a plume cloud. And so there is a lot of concern about to what extent will this plume cloud at scale start to either block oxygen from allowing life to thrive. So the question about disturbance in the marine ecosystem is still open ended. However, there are a lot of studies out there that are looking at at what depth the sediments can be released back into the ocean. Okay, there are certain depths that, if it's being released, it may not disturb the environment or the organisms, but there's still a lot to be

19:54

studied. There's yeah, there's still a lot to learn.

Linda Nhon  19:56

It says, yeah, yeah. However, I will say, um. Um, proponents of seabed mining have argued that in comparison to terrestrial mines, the ecological damage or habitat loss is less than that caused by terrestrial mines. There are literature out there, but I think it's still a lot to be determined.

Jim Cardoso  20:28

From hearing your voice and reading your body language, we are in the same room here. You seem a little unsure about whether that's legit, that claim that the land based mining is even more ecologically damaging,

Linda Nhon  20:44

yes, but I will also help you put a caveat. I am a chemist by training. Maybe having an oceanographer who have studied the marine environment in particular, maybe it's going to be a person who can explain it better than I can.

Jim Cardoso  20:59

Well, we'll have an opportunities in the future. In the fall, quick shout out. We'll be doing our next Florida security forum is going to be on critical minerals, with a focus on offshore critical minerals. And we're going to gather those types of people around, one of them being Mark Luther. He's a and I'll give a shout out to mark Luther over in the College of Marine Science. He's a great he's a great partner to us as well here at GNSI. So we'll you'll hear more about that conference as it comes up in the fall. The last obstacle you talk about is probably most complex, and to me at least, and it's the regulatory environment, the uncertainty in international waters as a business risk, because this is a business to pull these, these these pmns off the off the ocean floor, and you, you can, you, you know, you outline complete competing guidance in so I've got the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the deep seabed, hard minerals act. There's also oversight of the International Seabed Authority. And then you factor in President Trump's recent executive order on offshore critical minerals and resources, and these are terms and organizations, again, most people are just not familiar with including myself. Can you walk us through a little bit how these regulatory challenges create an uncertain business environment and therefore impede seabed mining?

Linda Nhon  22:20

Yes, definitely. So in 1994 the United Nations Convention law deceased UNCLOS was signed and ratified by a lot of the countries involved in the United Nations, while the United States was instrumental in drafting the original language because of the political situation at home, the US never officially ratified it. The United States remains a permanent observer in the International Seabed Authority. So within UNCLOS, there is a governing body called the International Seabed Authority, and so they are the ones that are really putting out the rules and regulations in relation to seabed mining. And so the United States sits in these meetings, but just as a permanent observer, without any voting rights, but they can give their opinions on the home front, the US has created their own domestic rule or law called the what you mentioned, the deep hard seabed minerals

23:38

act, yes, deep seabed hard minerals act,

Linda Nhon  23:41

yeah, and that one says that the US can operate international waters Noah,

Jim Cardoso  23:51

the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric agency, Yes,

Linda Nhon  23:55

they are the ones. So Noah is, in a way, the US domestic equivalent to Isa. Look.

Jim Cardoso  24:08

I mean, you're it's the regulatory environment. It's so dense and complex. I mean, that's why we're stepping through it little by little. And believe me, people listen to this are hearing this for the first time as well. And you know, I encourage you to go online and maybe Wikipedia. This stuff can get, you know, build your your your situation, awareness of it as well, but, but keep going, as far as you know, why you know where we're at now,

Linda Nhon  24:29

yes, so within the domestic rules there, in addition to NOAA, there's the Bureau of Ocean and energy management, B, O, E, M, they are responsible for giving out licensees or permits within national jurisdiction, but in international waters, Noah's responsible for giving out those permits. Now there's this weird overlap when a USF. Company goes out into, for example, the Clarion Clipperton zone, ccz, that is an area that is rich in polymetallic nodules. It's between Hawaii and Mexico. That's technically international waters, and if you're a US company. And there is the ISA, which who have carved out specific areas within the ccz to give out to the member states. What do you do? Do you apply to NOAA? Or do you, well, you can't apply to isa Isa, because the US never ratified it. Yeah. So that's where we are right now, exactly. Yeah.

Jim Cardoso  25:45

So from a from a business perspective, even though there's probably a lot of a lot of commercial revenues to be gained, a lot of business to be gained for a long time, probably I can see that being a bit of an impediment, like them just being a bit reluctant, because it is so complex, and you may so they may wade into this thinking, all right, we think we got the we think we got the pathway scoped out. Then you just never know where somebody's gonna go at stop. You can't do that. And it could be from the US, it could be from the international community. Yeah, I can see how, from business perspective, even though it could be very lucrative for them, there's a there's a bit of reluctance,

Linda Nhon  26:32

yes, but I also want to mention that right now, so there are specific terms that each group uses. So isa uses the term exploration licenses, which is when they give out that permit or that license to a company, that company can go out and do they call it environmental baseline studies, which is to start characterizing the bio the marine environment. Marine environment, underneath the chemistry in the water, the plume dynamics, they do a thorough assessment, but there is no excavation of the rocks. That's just the exploration. In order to extract the rock, a company must obtain an exploitation license, which to this day, no country has received an exploitation license. Okay, and so that means nowhere in the world, in any of the oceans, is it someone technically allowed to extract the polymetallic nodules. Now, what the Trump administration has done recently in their executive order for unleashing offshore critical mineral resources, they wanted to streamline the regulatory process, where no one used to have a stepwise process for obtaining they called it a think is also called an exploration license, which is similar forming a baseline environment to baseline study. So to

Speaker 1  28:12

confuse things, let's name things the same, the same thing as well. So they'll make it even more confusing. Yes.

Linda Nhon  28:17

And then this the second part, which is the equivalent to the isas exploitation license. Is Noah's commercial recovery permit, which, if a company has it, that means they're allowed to go out and extract the rocks and sell they have yet to give out any new commercial recovery permits. They gave two permits out in the 1980s to Lockheed Martin, and Lockheed Martin still holds those permits. But the company that's closest to receiving that those permits may be the TMC, the metals company. Right now I don't think they have, I think they received the exploration license. But, you know, at the rate that things are changing, may happen soon, okay, wow.

Jim Cardoso  29:11

I mean, that's, that's just a lot to absorb right there. I mean, it's just real. I mean, it really is. And I think that look like I said. I mean, if you're a business, you're trying to get into this. And it is obviously lucrative. Looks like a couple companies have Lockheed and literally, TMC is the metal company. I mean, that was, that was an inventive name right there, I guess. But, yeah, I I mean, I guess as sooner or later, we're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna wade through this and figure it out, because there is the need is the need is not going to go down any for these critical minerals and so that that that resources out there, so we're going to find a way to wade through. But that's why I said, I mean, you know, the the other things we talked about, the environmental impacts, the, you know, the competition from land based mines that those are, those are obstacles, but a little easier to understand. The. Regulatory one. It's all, it's all very man made. The other two are not. The other, that's very man made, just regulatory bureaucracy. How many rules can we make? Yeah, yeah. And that's, you know, and you have the international community in the US going, Yeah, you know, I don't think we want to subscribe to that. And the thing is, you know, a lot of people listening this would say, Oh, well, that's, you know, the current administration. They're kind of pulling away from the international community. He said, No, this is community. He said, No, this is 1994 this has been going on since. So it was, it was a different administration. In fact, if I remember my history properly, that would be the Clinton administration was in charge at that time. So yeah, it's a very different administration. But still, there's that. There's a sense from the United States. It's, we don't adhere too much the national to international norms for reasons that, look, each country acts in its own self interest. That's just the way it is. So yeah, yes.

Linda Nhon  30:51

In fact, the historically, the pushback hasn't actually come from the executive branch. The pushback for not ratifying UNCLOS has come from Congress, and that's because the United States believes strongly in freedom and navigation.

Jim Cardoso  31:09

Yes, that's true, and they're big on that. And you know, there's a lot of Yes, I agree with that, but are you are truly talking about international waters? And I don't know, like I said, but we're not going to solve that today, but, but you do come up with some recommendations, right? And GNSI, nor you would be doing your job if we didn't come up with some recommendations to offer to policymakers and and you provide three of them in your article. And so what are they? How do you how do they address the challenges, and how feasible Do you think they really are to execute? Yes.

Linda Nhon  31:44

So when I started to think about, what are some practical things that the United States government can do in moving the field forward and still addressing the challenges, I first thought about, well, if one of the concerns has to do with the environment, and because there's a lot of pushback from environmentalists to continuous seedbed mining, then one practical way is creating an open Database. Science it becomes trustworthy if it's transparent, and there's a lot of researchers doing the work and double checking. So having replica replicability in the data. And right now, what's happening is all these databases that are under NOAA, for example. They're siloed. They are for different topics. But if we can aggregate the data or centralize data that's related to seabed mining, and that's a lot of different areas, that's from marine chemistry to the biology in the waters, to the plume dynamics, if you can consolidate into one open database, I think I called it the International Seabed open database. I sod then that will be able to build some trust and transparency where the US is leading the scientific community and understanding the international waters as it relates to regions that contain the polymetallic nodules. And so that's number one, the US taking a leadership role in the scientific community, or international scientific community. A lot of the seabed mining industry are led by companies the private sector, and they have testified in front of Congress, asking for basically subsidies and funding, and some even go as far as asking for security against environmentalists and the waters.

Jim Cardoso  33:58

Yeah, that's a bit much, but I can, I can understand them asking for some type of, some type of guarantees, because they're going into a very risky environment, as we talked about with the regulatory environment, but that may be a boom buck, but

Linda Nhon  34:10

okay, I got it Yes. And so I think that that should, that type of risk should be taken on by the private sector, and in terms of how government funding should be spent for ocean science, I think it should go back to these federal agencies and fund the programs that fund academics and universities and researchers who will do an independent job and analysis on understanding the marine environment in these areas, rather than what's going on now, companies sponsoring consulting firms. Consultant firms to do the environment to baseline studies,

Jim Cardoso  34:50

yeah, which may, you know, may or may not have results that are favorable to the country's company's interest, potentially So, yeah, having a distant. That interested but objective third party and that look, that'll provide the information that Congress needs and even that these companies need as well to go about their business in a safe and responsible but also, you know, revenue generating manner. Yes.

Linda Nhon  35:17

And then the third recommendation, I called it The Poseidon Accords,

35:21

yeah, that was a cool name. Did you just make that

Linda Nhon  35:23

one up? Well, it's not that hard.

Jim Cardoso  35:25

Oh, that's still a cool name, though. Yeah, Poseidon Accords, I like that. So, yeah, explain what that is.

Linda Nhon  35:29

So it's basically a framework, a legal framework, that brings in allies, US allies, to the table to talk about the norms and regulations for how to cooperate in international waters. When it comes to sea bed mining, it's basically like UNCLOS and but because we're you didn't ratify UNCLOS, should still have some type of framework that allows the United States to work with our allies in these waters that's beyond our national jurisdiction, like, for example, in the Indian Ocean, there are polymetallic nodules there in other parts of the Pacific Ocean. So partnering up with our allies in a clear way that will help mitigate some risk if you are a company and but I do mention that if at any point that the United States decides to sign on to UNCLOS, then Poseidon accord should also be sunset to remove confusion. Yes, I want to

Jim Cardoso  36:34

agree with that, but so it's such a way to create some level of international cooperation in the area. So this is, this is just a way of doing that. Okay, realistic. Think those goals are realistic. And, I mean, I know I'm asking you to kind of go on a limb here a little bit, but, I mean, are those incredibly hard to do? Are they in the realm of the possible?

Linda Nhon  36:56

I think they're all in the realm of the possible. The plus sided accord, it's if no Well, works with the State Department. State Department has all the levers to do that type of work. That's their bread and butter. I think it's just a matter of getting these recommendations into the right hands or the right people who have the ability to do that, like Congress obviously have the ability to allocate the budget. That's a little bit more trickier, but creating an open database, consolidating the different databases and NOAA, that's something that NOAA can definitely do in house, in partnership with other agencies like BOEM to do that. Now, would a program manager want to do that? Maybe not, but if a director of a division within NOAA saw it as a priority or there as a top down emphasis, then

Jim Cardoso  37:56

it would be done well, and that may come some day as these, you know, you know, like we've said, the demand signal for these types of minerals is not going away. It's only going to go up. And so there will come a time that, I guess you call it the cost benefit, the priority level of these sorts of activities gets higher. You know this, you know, like Kyle, you're talking about something from a national level or a congressional level or an agency level. They've got so many things they're trying to do, they've got so many priorities that they're hit up with. So it's just got to bubble up from the noise and but I think it will eventually. And again, that's one of the things we'll talk about and maybe provide some, some, you know, good, great recommendations, and then we'll continue. We'll explore them a little bit more as we do some more research over the next few months and do the conference in October as well. Any final thoughts before we end the podcast? For today,

Linda Nhon  38:49

I do want to note that when it comes to seabed mining, it is all about the raw ore extraction. So I have not even touched on the aspect of refineries.

39:03

That's true. Yeah, good point.

Linda Nhon  39:05

So whether or not we're mining from the ocean floor or we're mining from the terrestrial mines, the elephant in the room is, where are the refineries located?

Jim Cardoso  39:16

Yeah, and not a lot of them are in the US, is my understand. Most of them are in China, right? So that's, that's another topic, and maybe that is a topic that we'll look at in future research, maybe a future discussion, maybe at the Florida security forum we're going to have in October. But for now, I'll tell I will say that, you know, as we do this podcast, we've looked at maybe doing this a visual podcast. If we ever do a visual podcast, you're going to be the first guest. Because, yeah, I know you may not like that idea, but you are the most active, like I mean, so just for everybody listening out there everything she's saying, there's hand signals, there's hand gestures. So, you know, I learn a lot just by why. Watching the non verbals that she's making right here. So Young verbals there, very nicely done. Yes, so, but at the end of the day, Lyndon Young, thank you so much for your time today.

Linda Nhon  40:12

All right, thank you so much for having me. Jim.

Jim Cardoso  40:14

Special. Thanks to our guest today, Dr Lyndon young, resident research fellow here at GNSI, look for our upcoming research article on deep sea mining of critical minerals and resources in the near future. Next week on the podcast, our special guest will be Manoli priniatakis. He's a Geni sign non resident senior fellow and the CEO of Intelligence and National Security directions LLC, which provides geopolitical risk consulting in the Intelligence and National Security space. He'll be a featured speaker and moderator at Tampa summit six this week, leading both a panel and a breakout session focused on the golden dome, and that's what we'll be talking to him about next week on ATV. If you don't want to miss that episode or any other episode, be sure to like and subscribe to at the boundary on your favorite podcast platform. You can also find GNSI on YouTube, LinkedIn and X. Be sure to follow like and subscribe. Tell your friends and colleagues as well, and you should definitely check out our monthly newsletter. All this is on our website, usf.edu/gnsi, we really appreciate you sharing some time with us today

Jim Cardoso  41:29

that's going to wrap up this episode of at the boundary. Each new episode will feature global and national security issues we found to be insightful, intriguing, maybe controversial, but overall, just worth talking about. I'm Jim Cardoso, and we'll see you at the boundary. You.