AFC Preview

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SPEAKER_01 0:10

Welcome back to the NFL Betting Edge with Pittsburgh Billy and your host Zach. Second day of doing the preview, we're going to head into the AFC, starting with the North. The first team we'll go over is the Buffalo Bills, who suffered a heartbreaking loss last year in the playoffs against the Broncos. Team should be a juggernaut, once again. Josh Allen's their quarterback, so they're always going to be good. But what do you think about their team heading into this year?

SPEAKER_00 0:38

Yeah, Allen's the best. And uh McDermott lost his job uh solely for the stupidity before halftime of that Denver playoff game when he just gave away a score for no reason instead of just taking a knee. So that that's the reason McDermott got fired. The owner was infuriated by him doing that. And that is the reason. Joe Brady uh takes over, who was the OC. And uh I actually think it's a coaching upgrade. Uh you know, the players already know him, the system will uh basically be the same, but the game management will be much better. Uh it can't be worse. McDermott was one of the worst to do it. He wasn't a bad coach, but uh game coaching was the worst. And he did point out uh to ownership in the GM, and this is this kind of pissed them off too, that they weren't giving him good enough players. And they weren't. Their drafts have sucked for the past three years, they've been horrible. So uh, I mean, he was right about that. Um, this year's draft actually was was good. I gave it an A. Um, but let's start from the top. Josh Allen, uh, my highest-rated quarterback in the league. Um, and you get Cook, uh obviously one of the best with Davis and Johnson. Really good trio running backs there. They brought DJ Moore over from uh the Bears. Definitely an upgrade for what from what they had. He's not one of my favorites, but he definitely helps them for sure. Um Shakir's there. I don't know why Josh Palmer's still there. He does nothing. Uh McCole Hardman's a good ad. Um and they drafted Sky Bell. Um, and of course, uh Coleman, um, who's been a big disappointment so far, um, gets playing time as the four or five receiver. But uh yeah, I think it's enough. Their tight ends are really good, Kincaid, Knox, and Hawes. Um, so that that helps. Um the the offensive line's tremendous. They have two elite tackles, Dawkins and Brown. Uh the interior line's good. They had to uh they had to replace Edwards with Alec Anderson at guard, but that's about it. And uh their offensive line should once again be one of the best in the league. Defensively, uh they kind of cleaned up their secondary, brought new people in, drafted a lot of people. Uh it has to be an improvement because their secondary's been horrendous for the past three years. Um linebacker-wise, uh, they brought Chubb in. Um drafted some good uh a good edge player, Parker. Um yeah, I I I think the defense is gonna be better too. Uh the schedule's tough, um but uh but it's manageable. Um their win total is I made it 10.53. And I think the books have a 10.5 over 50. Um, I have their win range actually between uh the Bills. I have their win range between 11 and 12, actually. And I have them winning 11-12 games. Uh, they're my third-ranked team in the NFL. Yeah, they have a middling schedule. Um, they're gonna be favored in 14 games. They got a tough opener at Houston. Um, yeah, that's uh that's two teams jockeying for position for uh for later on. That's actually a really big game for opening week, um, which the game's around a pick'em, I think. Um but um no bets here on the Bills. Um, you know, I I don't want to go over 10 and a half and lay a big number like that. Um but I think they will win 11 games this year, Zach.

SPEAKER_01 4:48

All right. Next team we'll talk about in the AFC East is the New England Patriots. Should be duking it out with the Bills here for this division. Drake May returning a quarterback. Mike Vrabel having some off-season problems. But uh what do you think about this team?

SPEAKER_00 5:04

I think the Vrabel offseason problems are uh are not gonna be a factor at all. Um I think Vrabel and Drake May another season together, year two for those two together. Uh you bring Dobbs from Green Bay, AJ Brown from the Eagles in uh, you know, along with Booty. That's a it's such an upgrade at receiver. It's scary. Um they drafted Reardon, and I read, I actually read today that he looked really good in practice. He's a tight end from Notre Dame. Go ahead, him in the third round. Looks like he might contribute right away with Hunter Henry. Um the offensive line was was a problem for them last year, especially left tackle. Uh they still have Will Campbell at left tackle, but they drafted Caleb Lomu, who was a left tackle at Utah. He can play right or left tackle. Uh, but they have Morgan Moses at right tackle. So if Lumu develops uh quickly and Will Campbell continues to struggle, um, I actually thought they were gonna bump Campbell into guard, but it looks like they're gonna try uh try to make it work with him at left tackle. But they have options if he's not performing like uh like he wasn't last year. They definitely have options this year. So I don't think that's gonna be an issue for him like it was last year, the O-line. Defense is really good. Um they brought in uh Draymond Jones from Baltimore and uh Bayard, the safety from the Bears. Um to go along with what's already was a good defense, uh great defensive line. Um linebackers are really good. Harold Landry Spillane, now Draymond Jones. Can add him there. And the secondary's tough, too. Just sign Gonzalez to a big deal. Bayard gets added, Carlton Davis gets added at corner. I mean, this team's really good. I mean, usually the team that loses the Super Bowl uh may have a down year. I mean, it's it's historically been like that a lot, but I don't think it's gonna happen in this case. This team, I mean, this team's as good as Buffalo. Uh you know, Buffalo has a better quarterback, but um, you know, I have them ranked uh, and they had an excellent draft on top of everything else, so they bring in a slew of young players. Um uh I have them ranked fourth right behind the Bills in the NFL, fourth best team. Okay, made their win total 10.09, and I have them winning between ten and eleven games. Their schedule's a little tougher than Buffalo's, not much though. Um the coaching's really good. Uh and um no play here on the Patriots. Uh, but I I think them and the Bills are gonna really uh really fight it out for the division. And um I mean I would lock both of them into the playoffs right now.

SPEAKER_01 8:07

All right. We head to the bottom of the division here with the New York Jets uh bringing home Geno Smith. Um what do you think about this team?

SPEAKER_00 8:17

Well, it's one of the worst coaching staffs in the league. Um I don't think he'll he might not make it through the season. Uh but uh Geno Smith, I mean, the offensive line isn't bad. I think Geno Smith might do better this year than he did um last year with the Raiders. I mean, he had no chance with that offensive line last year. And um it's it's been proven in the past that when he has time, he could be effective. Um I definitely think this year's Jet team is better than last year's. Um they bring uh they draft Omar Cooper out of Indiana. He's definitely gonna help them right away. A.D. Mitchell, they got in the middle of last year. Tim Patrick comes over, big uh big-bodied wide receiver that catches the ball. And of course, Wilson is their number one. So yeah, and the running backs with Brees Hall and Allen. Uh the offense might, if Gino can uh get some time, the offense might uh it's definitely gonna be better than last year, and it might be uh above average, to be honest. Uh defensively, too, they added uh Sweat, uh Demario Davis, uh Minka Fitzpatrick, and Naishon Wright. I mean, four really good players. Uh they did lose Williams and uh Jermaine Johnson. Uh, but but uh I don't know, their defense might be tough, uh, might be improved also. They had no interceptions last year. That's a big point of discussion on talk shows that uh they can't believe a team could go through a season without intercepting a pass, and that's what the Jets did last year. Um still, the uh schedule's not as easy as you would think for a team that finished uh in last place. Um I made their win total 5.47. I have them winning between five and six games. Uh but I don't know. They might they might pull a couple of upsets here. Um they have no primetime games this year and uh and and no uh international games. They just kind of play every Sunday at one or four o'clock. So um not even a Thursday game. So um you'll get to see the Jets every Sunday, and that's it. But uh yeah, this team will be improved, but uh to what extent I couldn't really tell you. There's no value in betting their uh season wins.

unknown 10:53

Right.

SPEAKER_01 10:53

Do we round out the division with a team probably worse than the Jets, the Miami Dolphins? Way worse. Who cleaned house, new coach, new quarterback? Uh what do you think? Probably the worst team in football here.

SPEAKER_00 11:05

Uh it's my 32nd ranked team. I don't like the coaching hire. I'm not crazy about the quarterback. He's not a pure pocket passer. Um, the offensive line is uh I mean, to be nice, a work in progress. Um the receivers are probably it's probably the worst group of receivers. The running backs, Achan's a good player, and Ollie Gordon's not a bad second back, but man, this offense is just, I don't know. It's not gonna be good. And the defense is not gonna be good either. So um I mean, I don't know. I don't know about the coaching hire. Both both sides of the ball look look like they're bad. I just I don't see good things for the Dolphins this year. Uh um their win totals like the book has four and a half uh under 70, uh, or three and a half, like over 40. I I get I I have them winning between three and four games, and I probably won't be involved with this team at all. Um so going back and recapping the division. Uh I think it's gonna be a dogfight between Buffalo and New England. I give Buffalo a 53% chance of winning the division. That's minus 112. Uh this opened like $1.20 because I I I actually laid $1.20 when it came out, but I've since gotten off it. It's up to $1.75. Uh and I give the Patriots a 47% chance to win the division, and that sits uh plus 45. That that was actually plus 70 or 80 um when it came out. So uh Buffalo's gone up, New England's gone down. Um there is a little bit of value in betting New England to win the division, but not quite enough since it's been knocked on. If it was still up in the 70 range, I would definitely bet it. But uh there's no division, but the Jets in Miami have no shot of winning the division, so uh it's a two-horse race there. Um there's no playoff bets anywhere in this division either. Um, I have the Jets, my 30th ranked team. But but but I I do see some upside with the Jets, and I see no upside with the Dolphins, who I have 32nd. And uh at this time there's no bets on the division, but you know, watch preseason, you always may come up with something, but nothing right now on this division.

SPEAKER_01 13:38

All right, let's head into the AFC North next. We'll start with the Baltimore Ravens, who I love the coaching hire. One of my favorite coaches, uh Jesse Minter. Totally agree. Uh, what do you think about the team?

SPEAKER_00 13:50

Big upgrade. Big upgrade coaching hire. Uh Harbaugh, I think the players were getting tired of him. Uh, he was getting really stale there. And this is a big upgrade in coaching. I think the offense will be way better. It's my second-ranked team behind the Rams in the NFL. Um Lamar Jackson. They got Huntley's a capable backup. I mean, he was in a lot last year, and he was adequate. Um, the receivers are solid, not great. Um, Flowers is a hell of an athlete. They got Bateman and Walker, and they drafted Surratt from uh the Hoosiers and uh also uh Jacoby Lane from USC, and uh they'll try to get them in the mix. Uh they lost likely the tight end of the Giants. They got still got Andrews and uh they also got Smythe from uh the Bears, who's a pretty good player. He'll be their second tight end. Um offensive line should be good. Um they're gonna start their first round pick uh from Penn State, the guard Loaney, and uh everybody else from last year comes back. So uh yeah, I look for the offensive line to be fine. And you definitely have some leeway with Jackson back there, the way he mo his mobility and everything. Uh the big question is the defensive line. They got three guys that are that may not start the season. Uh Jones, Jenkins, and Metabike. Um, so I don't know at what point they'll play, come back, whatever, but uh do have Calais Campbell that'll step in, Okoye. Um they they signed Hendrickson from the Bengals. Uh uh should should help them with a pass rush, but I don't know that defensive line uh maybe a problem if these guys are out an extended period. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Um the secondary's fantastic. It's basically the same as last year. Um very good secondary, one of my favorites in the league. Um linebackers are okay. Uh uh Roquan Smith's still good. And uh Buchanan and Robinson and uh Green. They got they got some good linebackers too. It's a it's a it's a real good team with no weaknesses, and I love the coaching hire. Um made their total I got their range of wins between 11 and 12 and made the total 11.15. And um this is one of four teams that I have elite coaching on. I I uh even though he's new, I'm I I think it's an elite staff. And uh I see them doing big things this year, but uh no no play on the total. I mean you gotta go be out of your mind to go over 11 and a half in today's NFL.

SPEAKER_01 16:48

So Okay, next we'll head to the Cincinnati Bengals, who lost Trey Hendrickson. What do you think about this team?

SPEAKER_00 16:58

Uh I like the Bengals a lot, um, not nearly as much as Baltimore, but uh uh they're my 14th ranked team in the NFL. Um they actually really improved their defense with a bunch of free agent signings on the on the defensive line. Um they bring back almost the same starting five at offensive line, which uh I'm not wild about, but they they could be better this year because they'll have a lot of cohesiveness. And um Joe Burrow, uh probably the best uh quarterback uh in the league at pocket present with pocket presence-wise. So uh he definitely gets some give and take with the line with him. Of course, you know about the receivers, Higgins and Chase, um Gasecki at tight end. Uh yeah, not bad. But um yeah, the Bengal offense should really be explosive, and uh the free agents are definitely going to help their defense. Uh the coaching, uh I was real generous and gave them average, uh, an average grade in coaching. Uh just because they've been together now for a long time. Uh I like Al Golden, too, the defensive coordinator. Uh not at all a Zach Taylor fan. Um, the schedule's easy. It's uh very favorable schedule. It's the third easiest in the league. And uh they're winning, I have them winning between 10 and 11 games. And they probably barring injury, I think they should make the playoffs, but you never know. Burrow gets hurt uh quite often. Uh the total's nine and a half uh over 75 at the book. And uh yeah, there's there's really nothing here. It's there, you know, them and they're 220 to make the playoffs. Baltimore's three and a quarter. You there's nothing to bet.

SPEAKER_01 18:51

Okay, next team in the North will go to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who will bring Aaron Rodgers back for his final season. Hired Mike McCarthy. Uh, should have a pretty good offense here on this team. Defense is a little questionable, uh, but excited for the Steelers this year. What do you think?

SPEAKER_00 19:08

Um, I'm rating the new coaching is good uh simply because uh the old coordinators were just so whore. The offensive and defensive coordinators uh that Pittsburgh had were just so awful that uh this has to be an upgrade, and McCarthy's an a good offensive-minded coach. Um, I think the offense will definitely be better just because of him alone. Um uh the defense is already good. It was good last year. It should should actually be better this year. They brought Jamal Dean from Tampa over. Um Rico Dowdle, too, from uh Carolina. Uh uh because they lost Gain. Well, he wanted to play in Tampa Bay, so they signed Dowdle, which is a really good signing. Uh win total wise. Um, I actually took a flyer when the line came out at over seven and a half minus 20. That's it's a lot higher now. I don't even know if I love that though. Uh I have the Steelers winning. Uh I have their number at 8.41. I have them winning between eight and nine games. Uh the big question mark here is the offensive line. Broderick Jones looks like he's not going to play this year. And um, you know, Aaron Rodgers, if he doesn't get protection, he's not going to excel. So um, you know, Mike McCarthy can do anything he wants, but if the quarterback can't move and isn't protected, there's not much he can do. Um, but but I think he'll give him the best chance of succeeding. I made the total for the Steelers 8.41. I have their range between eight and nine wins. Um, it's eight and a half under 30. Uh Pittsburgh's my 19th ranked team in the NFL. Um, they have a nine, uh, number nine ranked schedule. They did finish in first last year, which definitely doesn't help them this year. Um I don't know, it's gonna be tough. Uh they got to win that first game, uh, home game against the Falcons, and that's not gonna be an easy one. But uh nothing right now on the Steelers. I did take a lead uh at over seven and a half, but I'm not sure if I'm staying with it, and I certainly don't recommend it at what it's at now.

SPEAKER_01 21:19

So all right, rounding out the division. We have most likely the worst team in this division, the Cleveland Browns. What do you think about this team?

SPEAKER_00 21:29

Well, I'll start by saying I'm not wild about the coaching hire. Um they lost Jim Schwartz, who was a big factor of their defensive success, and of course Miles Garrett. I mean, they lost their two best assets on defense, and they hired a coach that I'm not wild about. Um, I'm gonna be nice and give it a below average coaching stuff. Um I I actually thought Deshaun Watson um uh was Was maybe gonna come back and be his old self, but the first two passes he threw today at uh training camp were interceptions. And I told myself, what am I thinking? He's gonna be the same. You know, they they they did the roster definitely improved over last year. They added a lot of good players. Their draft was pretty, they had a lot of talent in their draft. Wide receivers, they're looking to start two rookies at wide receiver, along with Jerry Judy. And they still have Tillman as a number four. You know, they bring Elton Jenkins over to play center, Zion Johnson from the Chargers, uh, Tevin Jenkins, like all guys from different teams. It's gonna be hard for this O-line to mesh right away. I think I think it's gonna struggle out of the gate, almost for sure. Um defensively, um got got still got some good players, did get verse from the Rams, uh, which is obviously a downgrade from uh the stud they had, but he's still a really good player. Um secondary-wise, Denzel Ward's still a star, but I don't know, the rest of the guys are hit or miss. Um, I I don't see it in the cards for Cleveland this year. Um I have them winning between five and six games this year, uh making their number five point seven. I think it's six and a half under 85 right now, uh, unplayable. They they do have a favorable schedule, which last year they had a really hard schedule. Um Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Cleveland all have favorite schedules. Pittsburgh has the hardest schedule in the division. So um Cleveland has that going for him. And listen, if uh Deshaun Watson uh decides to go back to his old form when he was with Houston, um, you know, you know you never know. Uh maybe they'll catch lightning in a bottle and win seven, eight games, but I highly doubt it. Um no bets on the Browns last uh as of right now, but I'm not optimistic. Uh taking the division from top to bottom, uh I give the Ravens 57% chance uh to win the division. That's minus 132. Um it's even right now at the book. Um, I am considering betting Baltimore to win the division, but I haven't done it yet. Um Bengals, I have 32%, which is plus 212, and they're plus 160. And Pittsburgh, I give 11%, uh, which is plus 809, and they're plus 500. So um there is a little bit of value with Baltimore, but I have not bet it yet. Uh I'm gonna wait and show up around and uh because people are betting the Bengals. Uh the Bengals opened like 210 to win the division. It's getting it got bet down uh to the dollar sixty. So I'm thinking maybe it'll go down further and uh I'll get a better value with uh the Ravens. And um yeah, I just kind of want to see how the what happens with their defensive line as well. A little concerned about that, but uh still they're the best team in the league. And um I I just as of this time uh there's really no future play for me.

SPEAKER_01 25:29

Um all right. Looking at the A uh, excuse me, looking at the AFC South, we'll start with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Had a pretty good year under Liam Cohen as his first year as head coach. Uh, what do you think about this team?

SPEAKER_00 25:44

Uh yeah, I like Liam Cohen. Good good coaching stuff. Um the Jags didn't really do anything to better their team this year, honestly. Kind of like the Packers. Um, but they have great receivers. Trevor Lawrence is definitely a capable quarterback uh when he gets time to throw. Um they lose uh they lose Etienne, who was a really uh integral part of their offense out of the backfield and running the ball. Uh they got Tootin, uh slated to start. Um and uh I don't know. Um I mean he showed signs that he was uh he was gonna be really good last year. We'll see what happens. Um defensively, they let uh Devin Lloyd go. I don't I didn't like that at all. Uh I thought they should have signed him. He's kind of a leader of the defense. Had a had a phenomenon had like two or three phenomenal seasons in a row. And uh the Pant the Carolinas signed him for uh, I think it was 10 million. I think he was definitely worth that. Um, I don't understand where are they spending their money if they're not gonna sign a guy like him. So uh yeah, you know the defense, uh they still have Eric Armstead and Heinz Allen. Um the linebackers stink. Um one of the weakest units in the NFL. Secondary should be better with Travis Hunter taking over at corner. Um and uh Lewis is the nickelback. Uh the safeties are weak. They're very weak at safety, but uh we'll see. Travis Hunter, they I mean, they paid a lot to get him. He he better produce. Um he's a great athlete. We'll see what he can do. And uh, but but but I'm I'm kind of down on the Jags, um, especially because I think the division's gonna be better. Uh I bet under nine and a half. Uh I laid like 10 and 15, but I I I would not play it until after week one because they're gonna beat the Browns uh almost for sure. They're eight-point favorites. It's the only time they're gonna be over a touchdown favorite all season. And uh so I think I was pre- it's it's the line moved, it's nine and a half under 40 and 50. And uh people are kind of thinking along the same lines as me, but um if I would have caught that uh uh that the Browns uh uh were their first opponent and thought more about it, I probably uh would have waited. But what if they beat the Browns? If they don't beat the Browns, I'm I'm I almost have a sure winner. If they do beat the Browns, I'm gonna bet more on it. So I would recommend betting Jacksonville under after week one if they beat Cleveland. And if they don't beat them, there's no bet. But I uh I don't know. I they're picking to make the playoffs, and uh they have a really tough schedule.

SPEAKER_01 28:44

All right, let's head into the next team here in the South, the Houston Texans, who have arguably one of the best defenses in football, probably the best. The quarterback question, though, uh CJ Stroud. His performance last year against New England was just pitiful. So uh we'll see. He's the one holding him back, I think, in my opinion. Great receivers on the outsides, good running back, but uh yeah, we'll see. What do you think?

SPEAKER_00 29:09

Yeah, they bring Nick Cayley in. Uh, he was the Rams offensive uh pass coordinator last year. Um, really good hire. I think the coaching staff will be good this year. Um, I like what they did offensive line. Um, Wyatt Teller from the Browns uh looks like he's got new life. He's gonna start at one guard. Rutledge, uh their first round uh pick from George is gonna be the center. They got Ingram at the other guard. They signed Braden Smith from the Colts. Great right tackle. Um you know, the left tackle is a little bit of a question. Essery uh enters his second year. He uh he had some bumps last year, but he was a rookie. Should get better. They have Fisher backing him up. They also have Trent Brown, um uh who's backing up Braden Smith that could maybe take over in an emergency. I think the offensive line is going to be much better. And I think that's a big part of why CJ Stroud um did not have his best season last year. I think he'll be much better this year. I'm I'm bullish on the Texans. Um the defense, like Zach said, I'm not even gonna go into it. That's my number one defense in the league. Uh their draft was pretty good. They got some nice, uh, nice young players coming in this year in the draft. Uh but uh I made their season win number 9.38. I do anticipate that the division will be better this year. Um uh good coaching. Um the book has this nine and a half over 35, and I made their win range between nine and ten.

SPEAKER_01 30:49

All right, Indianapolis Colts, next team in the AFC South. Uh questioned quarterback with Daniel Jones. Team had a lot of success last year, started off 18. 32, I believe, and then kind of fell off with the injury bug.

SPEAKER_00 31:02

Injury, and he wasn't didn't play as good after that, but uh he he says he's 100% and ready to go for week one. So um, I don't know. This team did well last year, could do well this year. Same coach is back defensively. Uh I don't know. They uh they're gonna start a few rookies. They uh they drafted primarily defense uh with the exception of one offensive lineman. Um so I think their defense will be better. Um not really many free agent signings here. Uh but I think they I think they think they can win with the group they have and with the draft picks they brought in. Um they proved they could last year. Jonathan Taylor's an absolute stud. A little weak at receiver. Uh uh plus Pierce uh isn't even isn't even gonna practice until like for another three weeks. So uh hopefully they'll have him by week one. But uh this team's always uh kind of uh unknown for me every year, year in and year out. I never really have a beat on them. There's no value in the line. I made their wins 8.28. Um I think there's high variance with this team. Um I have the range between eight and nine wins, just like Jacksonville. And uh they're my 20th ranked team. Jacksonville is my 18th ranked team, and Houston is my 13th ranked team.

SPEAKER_01 32:32

Tennessee Titans, one of the worst teams in football last year. Uh, what do you think about them this year?

SPEAKER_00 32:37

Well, I think they're gonna be really improved. I uh I do. I love the coaching hire. Um, don't think Salah got a fair shot with the Jets. Um, and he's kind of sat back for uh a year and a half and um coached the defense for the 49ers, uh did a great job there. And uh I mean I think he's gonna be a really good coach. I I think uh you know he brings in Day Bulls as OC, which is phenomenal. I mean, I think I I that's this is one of the biggest upgrades in coaching staffs I've seen in a long time. Uh I mean, going from the garbage they had last year uh to this is uh I mean it it's pretty eye-opening. So uh Cam Ward is second year, uh, did not play well last year. Look for him to be better this year. Um, that's gonna be key to how they do. Um, I don't like the Mitch Trubisky signing. I think he stinks. I wouldn't want him as a backup. Will Levis, uh, you kind of know how I feel about him. He's still there, and they they added Hendon Hooker, who's a throwaway also. Uh, if Cam Ward, first of all, I'm not even sure um if Cam Ward's gonna be good. I think he has a chance to be. But God, if he gets hurt, they're screwed. They have nothing backing him up. Um, they added Wandell Robinson uh along with Ridmill, Ridley uh and drafted Cornell Tate, who's just gonna be an absolute stud. Um, I like the receiving core a lot. Like, like Pollard and Spears at running back, especially Pollard, man, he runs hard. Um, the offensive line should be improved. Uh you know, they brought uh Schlottman over from the Giants to play center. Volson is not my favorite. He's gonna start at right guard. He's from the Bengals. Um uh Latham at right tackle struggled, but towards the end of the year, I think him and Moore will be fine at tackle, and Skoronsky at the other guard. Uh yeah, you know, it's it's not it's not a great offensive line, but it's improved over the last year. Uh defensively is where I really like the Titans. They they had Franklin Myers, they had Jermaine Johnson from the Jets, uh Flott from the Giants, uh Diabody, they had as well at linebacker. Um I mean you go along with Simmons, uh, who's an elite player. Uh I I do like their defense. Plus, Sal is coming in and he's gonna put his wrinkle on it. I I think the defense will be so much better than it was last year. Um yeah, they're there this division is not gonna be a cakewalk. Uh with Tennessee was 0-6 in division last year, rightly so. They stunk. They're gonna be competitive this year and pull some upsets. Don't count on them to go 0-6 again in the division. I promise you they won't. Um their schedule uh is manageable. I made their win total uh 6.46. Um already said I love the coaching. Uh and uh I got their win range between six and seven games. Um their schedules uh middle middling at 18th. Um they're my 27th ranked team and uh going from top to bottom. Uh give Houston 45% to win the division. That's plus 122 and they're plus 120. It's right on the number. Jacksonville 24%, that's plus 317, they're plus 210. Uh Indy at 20% is at four, that equates to 4-1 and they're at 320. And Tennessee, I actually give 11%. Uh they're 809 and they're at 950. I I uh I mean if Cam Ward plays good, this team might compete. But that's a big if. And I want to watch him in preseason and see how he does. But uh this division, I mean, from top to bottom is is gonna be, I think, much better this year. And uh yeah, I think two teams uh uh uh they're gonna beat each other up, but uh I think I think uh the Texans uh will probably come out ahead at the end. But um I I I think this division is gonna be competitive, Zach.

SPEAKER_01 37:11

Okay, last division in the AFC. We have the West. We'll start with the division champions last year, the Denver Broncos, who will see how their quarterback uh fares if he starts the season uh with a broken ankle last year in the AFC championship game, or divisional round, excuse me. Um yeah, the defense should be really good. Uh the team team should be good. What do you think?

SPEAKER_00 37:35

Well, the team's reporting that Nix is gonna play week one, but we'll have to see if uh how he practices. And signing Waddle at receiver is just a massive, uh, massive signing for that team. They needed a player exactly with Hill's with his skill set. Uh catches the deep ball, can bust one for a long run after the catch. I mean, he fits perfectly for what they needed, along with Sutton, uh, Pat Bryant, uh, Mims. The receivers all of a sudden aren't bad with Waddle. It was a weakness for him for sure last year. Um offensive line is uh might be the best in football, and everybody kind they brought everybody back. Um balls and and uh minors are uh elite players, the guard and tackle. Um Pat Surtain, corner, elite on defense, one of the best in the league. And uh I mean their defense too is really I mean, really good. So Bo Nicks. Bo Nicks plays well. Um this this team this team's gonna compete again. Uh I I have them, Kansas City and Denver. Uh I'm I'm excuse me. I have the Chargers, Denver, Kansas City very closely rated together. Um, I think it's gonna be a dog fight in this division. Um I have Denver's range of wins uh between 10 and 11. And uh I make their number 9.89. Uh they're $1.70 to make the playoffs. Um I would never bet that. Uh I have Denver ranked 15th. I'm I'm uh I'm definitely lower than a lot of uh places on them just because uh I don't know. I think there's uncertainty with the quarterback, and um um you know the schedule's much harder than it was last year as well. So uh manageable but harder. And the division's tough. So we'll see. I've uh I I I don't have a bet on the Broncos at this time.

SPEAKER_01 39:46

Okay. Next team in the division will go with the Kansas City Chiefs. Another quarterback whose week one status could be up in the air. Uh this team, for the first time in eight seasons, not only didn't win the division, but didn't make the playoffs. So uh we'll see how they bounce back heading into this year. Uh, what do you think?

SPEAKER_00 40:05

Well, they definitely improve their team. I actually uh it's the first year I don't have their coaching as elite. Um Andy Reid's getting older. Uh they're just uh they're just kind of getting older. Still very good coaching stuff, don't get me wrong. Um they bring uh Bianami in. Uh he had that tragic issue at home, but uh he should be he should be there when the season starts. Uh uh he replaced Nagy at uh OC, who went with uh John Harbaugh, the Giants. I don't think they lose anything there. Um still a good coaching stuff. I don't want to I don't want to be rated at all because I still respect Andy Reid a lot and think he does a great job. Um Patrick Mahomes, we're gonna have to see how uh well he moves uh in the pocket. I'm gonna keep an eye on that in preseason. Uh Kenneth Walker is just a great acquisition. Um Super Bowl MVP. The Chiefs really needed somebody like him. Basically had no running game the past couple of years uh since Pacheco got hurt and he moves on to Detroit. Uh Rishi Rice uh still has legal issues. Don't know if he's gonna get a suspension. Um he's really their only good receiver. Uh Kelsey's getting older. Um, yeah, I don't know. Uh I'm not wild about I liked Rishi Rice, but is he gonna be there for a full season? We'll have to wait and see. Um still a chance he could get suspended. Umfesteve line-wise, uh Creed Humphrey, the center, is elite. Um Trey Smith, also very good player uh at right guard. Um the tackles, man, I thought they were gonna be good last year, but um there's definitely cause for concern. Uh Jalen Moore is gonna be the right tackle. He had an awful season last year. And Josh Simmons uh didn't get in the lineup until very late in the season. Um we'll see if he cleared up his issues. And he he was a great player in college. And uh if he can get I think he's past his injury now. He should he should be fine. Um defensively, of course, they lost their two corners and uh replace him with uh definitely lesser talent. Um Chris Jones is getting a little older. I don't know, man. This defense Carloftis is is good. Uh they bring Tonga in from New England. Um I'm not wild about the defense, uh, to be honest with you. Um I know Spagnola's done a great job, but I think the defense could take a step back this year. But it's the Chiefs, it's Andy Reid, it's Patrick Mahomes. Uh still make their win range between 10 and 11 games. I think they do have a really good shot of bouncing back, made their number 10.35. Uh and uh yeah, I think they'll compete for the division, but no bets on them at this time either. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 43:08

Next AFC West team will go to the Chargers, who had a very unlucky season last year, just had bad injury luck overall. But heading to this year, uh with Slater and Alt back on the O line, um, what do you think about this team?

SPEAKER_00 43:24

Oh, I love them. I uh the coaching staff uh is elite, bringing McDaniel over. It's uh it's it's just it's it's gonna be a phenomenal staff. The offense should take a huge step forward with with McDaniel uh at the helm. Plus, like Zach said, the offensive line should be intact. They totally revamped the interior, and the tackles are 100% healthy now. Um but I I love their offense. Uh receiver wise, uh McConkey and Quentin Johnston are very good players. Um aside from that, they have uh They kind of have uh wait and see guys. They're a little thin. Uh but I think it's good enough for Herbert to have a uh who I think is an elite quarterback to have a really good season. Um plus tight end Gatson kind of went off at the end of the season. He's a really good player. The starting, and they added David Njoku from the Browns and Kohler from uh Baltimore, who's their third tight end. So their tight end, uh their tight ends are really good. Um Herbert's gonna have a lot of a lot of people to throw to. Plus, I think Marion Hampton's gonna have a great season. Uh he's 100% healthy. I think he's gonna go off. He's an explosive player, can catch it out of the backfield, bust long runs, love, love the player. Defensively, too. I mean, basically the same defense back. Uh I do lose the DC minter to Baltimore, head coach, but um replace him with O'Leary, who uh, you know, and they have a lot of the assistants are still there. So I I think the defense uh is still gonna be good. Plus, Jim Harbaugh's there to oversee that as well. Um uh one of the better game coaches in the league, uh Jim Harbaugh, I think. Uh but I like their personnel on defense. Uh Dvin Tomlinson got added at nose tackle. Um they bring back all the linebackers who were really good. Mack, Perryman, Henley. Secondary's good too. Dante Jackson surprised me last year. Had a really good year. Uh Derwin James, uh the stalwart of the unit. Uh I just think there's no weaknesses on this team. I really don't. Barring injury, um, they're going to be really good. And uh finally have a bet in the AFC for everybody. Over nine and a half, minus 40. You can find it at DraftKings, you can find it at MGM. It's out there. Bet it. Um I did, I bet it today, actually. Uh LA Chargers over 9.5 minus 40. Um, first two games, uh, very favorable. Uh Arizona at home and Raiders at home, who we'll talk about next. Uh, but uh, you know, and they have a tough schedule, tough division. But um boy, it's just hard to believe that uh with the talent, the coaching, and how good the team is that they're not going to win 10 games this year. So um I love that. I love that play.

SPEAKER_01 46:36

Okay, rounding out our last team in the AFC, we have the Las Vegas Raiders who draft uh number one overall pick, Fernando Mendoza. Uh, what do you think of this team?

SPEAKER_00 46:50

Well, it looks like Cousins is gonna start the season. Um, yeah, Clint Kubiak uh is a very good hire. Um the team, this team, this is another team. It's it's a little bit like the Titans. Um, they added good coaching. Um the roster is very much improved over last year with from what they drafted and added in free agency. Um Kobe Dean, Quay Walker, and Pae, all new linebackers, all good players that they added and didn't have last year. They got um Crosby, who's back, and Booker, who really rushed the passer well at the end of last season. So they their pass rush should be okay too. Um their secondaries uh definitely a work in progress. Um kind of kind of was uh not good last year and might be the Achilles heel of the defense this year as well. Uh but you know they got Brock Bowers too on on offense to throw to. Uh Aston Genty, I think, might have a breakout year. The O-line, you know, adding Linderbaum at center, Colton Miller um was injured the whole last year. He's 100% healthy. Um, I think it's gonna be good. I think this team is gonna be very improved, and uh this division is gonna be uh a war, man. They're uh um I think I think the Raiders are very improved uh this year. Um I actually took a flyer over five and a half uh minus 20. It's up to five and a half over 60. Would highly not make uh would not recommend betting that. Um the numbers gone, but uh the Raiders actually have the toughest schedule in the league, ninth toughest schedule. Uh I still have them ranked pretty low at 28. Um, them and the Titans kind of neck and neck for that 27-28 spot. Um, but I think both teams are on the comma on the on the on the rise. So uh I wouldn't be surprised if they did better. Going down the division. Um I gave the Chargers the best chance of winning the division 35%. Uh that's plus 86, and they're plus 90. I even saw 200, but not enough room to bet there. Just just too many good teams in the division. Um, the Chiefs and Denver both 30% to win the division. That's plus 243. Uh Denver's plus 215. The Chiefs are plus 60. Um, that's really low. I would actually like uh uh if there was a bet for them not to win the division, I I would probably play that, but uh books don't offer that. So um all three teams are decent size favorites to make the playoffs at uh $1.70 to $1.90 favorites to make the playoffs. Raiders five and a half to one to uh plus five hundred and fifty to make the playoffs. Uh so but uh from top to bottom I have uh KC is my nine. The Chargers are my number eighth ranked team, Denver 15th ranked, and uh Raiders 28th. So uh there you have it. Only one play that I could recommend right now in the AFC, which is the Chargers over uh nine and a half minus forty.

SPEAKER_01 50:19

We're looking forward to week one in about a few weeks. We'll uh we'll drop a podcast. We'll have Professor back and uh see you in a month, people