NFL Betting Edge
The NFL Betting Edge main goal is to give our listeners the
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The "NFL Betting Edge" enters its 4th season and sets the highest standard for providing NFL betting content for the weekend NFL card. Host "Zack" gives his best bet of the week and "Pittsburgh Billy" breaks down every NFL game on the board with game analysis using advanced modeling, pertinent injuries, matchup advantages, and most importantly finding value in current NFL betting markets. The "Professor" joins us on Wednesday to give expert fantasy advantages for all the games. On the Sunday podcast we will go over Survivor strategy and rank our best survivor picks. You also never know when a minor celebrity will pop in on the pod!!!
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NFL Betting Edge
Week 1 Plays
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Welcome back to the NFL Betting Edge with Pittsburgh Billy, your host Zach, and we have the Professor back. How have you been, Professor?
SPEAKER_00Doing great. Excited to uh talk up football with you two guys.
SPEAKER_02Looking forward to it. I uh I'm excited for the season. Let's get uh let's get right into the week one card. First, Wednesday night, unusual Wednesday opener. We have the Super Bowl rematch, Patriots at Seahawks. Seahawks three and a half point favorites total is 44 and a half.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm curious to see how Channel's gonna do without Clint Kubak winning the offense this year. Um and also without Kenneth Walker and this year, Zach Scarborough is injured. So really curious to see how Javerian Price goes. Um I would expect their offense isn't gonna be as stunning like it was last year. What do you think, though?
SPEAKER_01Oh, I totally disagree with that, Professor. Glad to have the professor back in the house. Um, yeah, I I really disagree. I think Sam Darnell's gonna take the next step up the quarterback tier. And uh not not quite elite like uh like the big three, but uh I I think he's gonna be the next step down. He I think uh the coach uh McDonald said he looks unbelievable, like night and day from when he came in last year. Uh he's got great receivers. Uh at Jadarius Price, the first round draft picks look great in camp. Um their offensive line, uh all five starters come back. Um, Gray's Abel was a rookie last year. He'll definitely get better this year. Sundell's done a great job at center. They got good tackles. Uh their defense is uh I think second only to Houston in the NFL. And uh yeah, I I I I think uh everybody's sleeping on them because the Rams are so loaded. I you know, I put that in my write-up on on Twitter. Um Patriots, on the other hand, have had some uh offseason interesting things. Uh uh, but I I mean listen, their team got better. AJ Brown, Dobbs from the Packers. Um they tried to patch up their offensive line. I I think Will Campbell's still gonna be weak at left tackle. Um I think the Seahawks will probably take advantage of that. But uh Harold Landry, too, is not gonna play for the first four weeks at least. Um he's out. That's that was a big part of their defense. But uh, their secondary's uh good. Not their defense isn't nearly as good as Seattle's, but it's but but it's not bad. It's above average. And uh, you know, Drake May should take another step forward, you would think. Um, but I don't know. He when he when he got pressured, uh he kind of crumbled uh in spots. And you know, don't forget New England had that patsy schedule last year. That I mean, in my opinion, it was the easiest schedule I've ever seen in any NFL season. So I like Seattle here. Um not not putting in a bet yet, because I think the line probably will go to three at some point. It's been trending down. Um, I made the game 5.1 in 44. I just think uh the Seahawks are better in every phase of the game. Um I don't think losing Kubiak is going to be that big a deal, like Professor said, because pretty much all the same players are back on offense. If they were changing, changing personnel here and there, other than running back, everybody's back. And um the running back is the easiest position to replace, even though Kenneth Walker was phenomenal last year, especially in the postseason. But uh I'm that I'm definitely gonna figure out a way to play Seattle, not giving it out as a bet because the line is three and a half right now, but uh I think Seattle's gonna win and um start the season one and oh.
SPEAKER_02All right, we head into our Thursday night game in Melbourne, Australia. We have 49ers at Rams. Rams are three and a half point favorites. Total is 48 and a half. We uh we have the Rams in this one traveling the day before the game, and the Niners are gonna spend a week there. So interesting strategy and uh fantasy question. Professor is gonna give a lot of his fantasy opinions on the show and uh question here. I have the Rams defense in fantasy. I think they're a gauntlet, one of the best. But is their strength of schedule too difficult to where it's gonna be hard to start them in a lot of matchups?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, my general go-to in fantasy Zach is to stream. So hypothetically, um, like let's take a look at week one here. You got uh the Rams hosting the 49ers, Brock Purdy, McCaffrey. I would rather take uh the Jacksonville Jaguars home against uh the Browns and play against Deshaun Watson in a bottom offensive line. I think the Jags would score more, even though the Rams are a superior defense. Just an example, yes. There's a lot of bad teams and bad quarterbacks in the NFL. So playing that strategically and streaming, I think you can gain equity over people taking the better defense. Of course, you get the value of not wasting a higher pick on an elite defense. Yeah, yeah, they're in Australia. Uh, I mean, the the hot name on the Niners is DeJron Ribbling, uh, a rookie. He's gotten rave reviews during camp. Uh Mike Evans has been banged up, and uh he's been creeping up draft boards drastically. He used to be a bargain, and but now he's going probably around where he should be for market. But uh he's a guy to keep an eye out for all season. It could really emerge for them being a wide receiver for the Niners.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, um, I don't really have much on this game. Uh Rams obviously uh are a heavy favorite uh here to win. Um I I don't know. They're they're leaving the day before the game, and the 49ers are going out there for a week. I I don't, I mean, I I don't know. Each team has their own agenda. I don't think that's gonna be a factor in the game. Uh it seems like the 49ers have had a lot of bad stuff happen to them when you know in the training camp and the off-season, injuries, coach getting into an accident, uh you know that plant that everyone thinks is making the players get sick and die. I don't know. I mean, it just seems like a knot of negatives, and there's been nothing but positives for the Rams. Uh I think the line is properly priced, three and a half, it's between three and a half and four. Um totals 48, which is right there. I don't know. It it it's the first week of the season, you're playing in Australia. Um, I would think the Rams will take care of business, but I certainly wouldn't bet it, and uh, I'm not betting this game at all.
SPEAKER_02Okay, let's move into Sunday at one o'clock games. First game is Browns at Jaguars. Jags are seven and a half point favorites. Total is 40 and a half. Uh anything here, Professor?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, one guy I'm interested to see for the Browns is Casey Conception, their first round with Lover. Todd Monkin is gonna really scheme him up for design touches around the line of scrimmage. And uh I think he exceed expectation to be a nice offensive weapon for a team that's gonna be trailing in a lot of games.
SPEAKER_01I don't think the Browns are gonna be quite as bad as uh as people are saying. Um their roster's actually really good. Um their offensive line is has a lot of new components. In fact, everybody's new on the offensive line, but it was so bad last year that it, I mean, I think it's gonna be improved. Um Monken is really good uh at scheming offensive lines. And uh I don't know. I I think the Browns are gonna be a lot better. I I know everybody thinks they're gonna suck, and I can't stand Deshaun Watson like most other people, but uh, you know, he had a good first preseason game on the road. Then he came home where he was relentlessly booed and he just stunk up the joint. And uh honestly, I think he's gonna have a chip on his shoulder and go in there. And I think he has a shot of playing good in this game. I really do. I mean, listen, what has Jacksonville done in the offseason other than nothing? They let their top two players go. Uh, two of their top players, Devin Lloyd and uh Etienne, um, leave in free agency. They didn't replace them with anybody. Their linebackers core is real weak. Now he was the backbone of the defense. Their secondary Travis Hunter is gonna step up and play corner, which will help, but I don't know, their safeties are weak. Um, the coaching's good. The receivers are great. I mean, they're gonna have a good passing game. There's no doubt, no, no arguing that. Their offensive line is not good either. That's another thing. He would he was sacked a lot last year. I mean, listen, they won 13 games last year. I mean, they had they had the second easiest schedule to the Patriots, so uh I think that's being way overblown. The division's gonna be better. I think the Colts are gonna be competitive. Tennessee is gonna be much better uh with Sala taking over as coach. And um, I don't know. Uh I only made this game 6.4. Uh and I I think it's gonna be more competitive than people think. I'm probably gonna be on the Browns. Um, I'm not gonna commit to it now. You know, we have another show uh the morning of week one, which uh because we're 10 days away from games, and I you have to get more information at this point. There's not gonna be many definitive picks uh on this telecast, but uh um just because we're so far out, um I do have two picks though that I'm gonna give out. But uh I'll I'll have more every week. We are gonna do a show on Sunday morning. So um talk about Survivor then and uh up-to-date picks and all the information that uh you know right up to game time pretty much. So uh this game though, I definitely favor the Browns. I think the public loves Jacksonville, loves him in a teaser, and um, you know, I'm I'm I'm not I'm not with the uh majority on this one. I uh I favor Cleveland here, Zach.
SPEAKER_02All right. Heading into our next game, we have Bucks at Bangles. Bangles' three and a half point favorites total is 50 and a half. Uh slated to be a high scoring game in this one, as most Bengals games probably will be this year. Um, what do you think about this one, Professor?
SPEAKER_00I think the Bengals defense is going to be improved this year. Um, Dexter Orange is gonna be a nice anchor for them against a bad run defense they had. Um I look for an improved uh defense for the Bengals. And if Burrow could stay healthy, I think they're definitely a playoff team. On the the the Bucks side, Baker Mayfield played hurt a lot last year. They dealt with a lot of injuries. Uh, I think if they could stay healthy, the Bucks uh should potentially be a playoff team as well. Um I think this game should be competitive, but the Bengals are deserving favorites. But um if if looking, I think it could be a lot of passing in this game, is my opinion.
SPEAKER_01Um I'll tell you a month ago when we did our uh NFC preview, I gave out I was fading Tampa, and uh I'm a little nervous about that right now. They um I mean everything since since that podcast, which was over a month ago, everything has happened uh uh in favor of Tampa. Vita Vaya signed. I thought he was getting traded. Uh Mayfield isn't getting a contract, he's gonna be playing in a contract year. So, I mean, usually, especially a guy like him, uh, you know, might light it up in a contract year. They've definitely improved their front seven. Um, the secondary has a lot of the same guys who were rookies or real young players last year, so they might be better. Um like offensive line is is is actually pretty good. Um you know, this is gonna be a competitive game. I agree with the professor, and uh I made the game 3.1. I favor Tampa. Uh probably won't play it. Um I'm probably just gonna have to pray that uh Cincinnati wins this game so I can get off my futures after after week one because I'm I'm kind of stuck right now with it. So uh yeah, that's what uh sometimes when you play uh play these things too early, they backfire. But uh I kind of like I I went from hating Tampa's team to thinking they're gonna be okay this year. Uh their schedule's tough. I mean, they still might not win nine games and they still might not make the playoffs, but I don't know if it's worth betting on. So uh but I I agree with Ryan too. I think the Bengals are gonna be good. That that def the defensive additions were huge. Um, you know, their win total is ten and a half, right where it should be. So this will be a great game to watch, though.
SPEAKER_02Okay, next game. We have Ravens at Colts. Ravens are three and a half point favorites on the road. Total is 48.5. Uh, pretty high on this Ravens team, as I said in the previous episode where we went over the previews. Uh, I think their defense is gonna be really good this year, uh, thanks to the Jesse Minter, head coaching hire. Uh I know it's only preseason, but they gave up thir 13 points through three games and only one touchdown. So if uh if that's anything to tell, I uh I think this Ravens team is gonna be really good, and I like them in week one, too. Uh, Professor?
SPEAKER_00I I see some similarities on coaching to Baltimore to what Seattle did last year. Uh you bring in a great defensive mind and Jesse Minter. And uh one of the up-and-coming offensive minds in Declan Doyle, who's only 30 years old. Uh Doyle was an understudy under uh Ben Johnson and probably the fastest rising offensive mind in the game. Samar Jackson has a big year. Um, Declan Doyle is going to be getting head coaching interviews next year for the Ravens. But for this game, I think both teams want to run, especially with Daniel Jones coming off the injury. So I look for a lot of handoffs. Taylor and Henry are both going to get plenty of carries as long as the game is close here. What do you think, Bill?
SPEAKER_01Um, I think the Colts have a chance to be good here. Uh I it, you know, it's all dependent on how Daniel Jones plays and feels, but he said he says he feels, you know, as good as he ever has. And if I think if he doesn't get hurt, you know, if you if you remember last year how they started out like a house on fire. Um they got a great offensive line, they got a great running running back and running game. Um, a capable quarterback. The defense, I think, is a little underrated. Um, got some good players on that side of the ball. They replaced a lot, their secondary was rough last year. They replaced a lot of people. Um and uh they had a good draft, drafted a lot of defensive guys that are gonna help them right away. CJ Allen from Georgia, um, amongst others. But uh I I think listen, I bet the cold season wins over 10 and a half. I think they're gonna be great. Everything Ryan says, I completely agree with. Uh, but I think this is a tricky spot for a new coach to come into a tough place to play. Indy's got a great home field advantage and the home opener. Um, I mean, they mess with the volume in there and make it extra loud. Uh I don't know. I I think I would never have I would never bet the Ravens in this spot. Um the lines bouncing from three three to three and a half back and forth. I'm I'm considering uh the Colts, um, but have not done anything as of yet.
SPEAKER_02You think we'll see the same Daniel Jones here after the Achilles?
SPEAKER_01That's a good question. I I mean we have to fight to see. I mean, he he played he played well in in uh training camp, but that's different than real games, you know.
SPEAKER_00I would suspect there's a lot less mobility. Uh he's not likely to take off and run. Uh his game was being a very athletic, big quarterback. Yeah. So you're not going to see the Daniel Jones when the Colts were on fire last year.
SPEAKER_01I definitely, I well, I don't I don't think you can say that for sure, but it's definitely a plausibility.
SPEAKER_02Okay, next game. We have Falcons at Steelers. Steelers three and a half point favorites total is 41 and a half. Of course, I love the Steelers in week one. Um yeah, I'm excited to see the offense. I'm excited to see McCarthy. It's uh it's nice to have a fresh offensive scheme. And McCarthy's had success everywhere he's been. So I think uh I think if Rogers holds up, it could be a pretty um pretty solid offense. Uh Professor, what do you think about this game?
SPEAKER_00Uh I agree with you. I'd favor the stewards too. I think Elena is going to be a dumpster fire this year. I think their quarterback position's a nightmare. I think uh two is cooked. He looks good in the preseason, and Penix isn't ready yet. They're open at strand, possibly to start as well quarterback. Um I think Elena's defense losing Pierce, their uh young up-and-coming defensive edge rusher. Um you know, personally who's hurt. I think Elena's gonna be a very bad team all the way around, it's my opinion. And I don't like their coaching staff either.
SPEAKER_01Um, well, the I'll I'll rebut a bunch of the stuff you said. The coaching staff, I don't really like Stefansky either, but it's a pretty good upgrade to what they had. So they are gonna get better coaches in there than they had in the past. Um Penix is ready to go. They haven't named a starter yet. If Tua starts, I I'm in agreement. I think it's gonna be a dumpster fire. But if Penix plays, there's a ton of weapons on offense. They got a great offensive line. Um the defense did lose two key pieces with uh Walker and Pierce. I think Pierce will probably be back mid-season. Walker's out for the year, but uh I don't think they're as bad as you're saying they are, Ryan. And uh I I uh I don't like them in this game, uh especially if two is in there. I would favor Pittsburgh. But you know, Pittsburgh's got issues of their own and their offensive line is uh a huge question mark. I mean, other than the center, like who can you count on on that offensive line? I mean, uh Faton, who's moving to left tackle uh from right, can he even play left tackle? I I don't know. I didn't see it in training camp. Um the guards are suspect. I mean, cook at right tackle. I don't know. And then you got a quarterback that can't move. So I'm I'm I'm a I'm a little bit more if if Atlanta puts the right quarterback in, I'm way more worried about Pittsburgh's offense than Atlanta's. Uh I made this game a dead three, and uh at this time I have really nothing no opinion on betting-wise on it. I did not mess with either team in futures either. I kind of was thinking about Pittsburgh early in camp, and I quickly got off that thought.
SPEAKER_02Okay, next game, we have an exciting one. Bills at Texans. Bills are one and a half point favorites. Total is 44 and a half. Josh Allen, we typically see in week one come out strong. He has a pretty good history. His QBR rating is high that first week, but he is going against the number one defense in football, I think by far, um, with Will Anderson leading the uh the pass rush. I think this is gonna be a good game. Um, could go either way. Uh, what do you think, Professor?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think the uh the Bills offense with DJ Moore gets a new new dimension. Uh fantasy-wise, I really like Dalton Kincaid at tight end for the Bills. His metrics were very good last year. He he was not 100%. Um efficiency uh when he was running routes and getting targets was was very high. It was elite for a tight end. So if you're not taking away the early tight ends, I really like Dalton Kincaid in fantasy this year. Um Houston's a tough defense. Uh, they're not a good team for fantasy because they they run the ball, they take a lot of field goals, play low-scoring games. So not a lot of fantasy goodness for Houston, in my opinion.
SPEAKER_01I think they're gonna uh their offense is definitely gonna be better. Their offensive line is gonna be better this year. I I I I'm almost certain of that. It was it was beyond bad last year. Uh you know, Stroud took a lot of heat uh for a bad season, and it was I think it was mainly because of his offensive line. Um bringing Montgomery in is a is a big boost to the run game. Um they just trained for Booty, uh, who's a good player to go along with Nico Collins. Uh Tank Dell's Higgins eye for the year, Tank Dell's not gonna play right away. So uh They are a little thin there, but um listen, uh Zach, you said Josh Allen, uh his QBR is high in week one. When is it ever not high? I mean, the guy's a the guy's the best player in the league. Um I don't know, I think it's a tough game for both teams. You know, this is gonna be uh this this probably will have playoff implications uh at the end of the year on who won or lost this game. So uh I made the Bills one and a half. I favor the Bills, have not bet them yet, and not a hundred percent sure I am, but I I just couldn't have Houston in this spot against uh the Bills. Just I think have too much firepower, even against their number one defense. Uh I think the coach for the Bills is an upgrade too. Uh you know, they don't change the offensive scheme. So uh I think Brady's a good uh is a good uh upgrade for McDermott. And uh I I have the Bills over 10 and a half wins too in future. I think they're gonna be them in Baltimore. I think uh it's a two-horse race in the AFC.
SPEAKER_02All right, next game. We have Bears at Panthers. Bears are two and a half point favorites. Total is 47 and a half. Uh people are skeptical up skeptical about the Bears coming into this year. Think maybe there could be a drop-off. I like the team. I think the defense is a little bit suspect, but I think the offense is going to be incredible. I think the DJ Moore trade was a win-win for both because these Bears receivers, Roma Dunze, more importantly, Luther Burden, who I have in fantasy I'm very high on. I think he could emerge as their number one receiver. Um, Professor, any thoughts on Luther Burden, Bears, and this matchup?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I agree with uh Sugar Collins there. The Bears' defense is bad, their offense is elite. Um Ben Johnson has joked about score setting the new scoring record. If you own Bears in fantasy, that's what you want to hear from a head coach. I think the Bears' offense is going to be very dynamic this year. Luther Burden, if you watch him, uh like he stands out when he's on the field. And a lot of people that been on the games or play fantasy don't actually watch all the players. He stands out athletically in the field if you actually watch him. The Carolina side, not a fan of their team too much from a fantasy perspective. I mean, some people are higher on uh Jonathan Brooks, but I think Chuba is still gonna be the lead back when healthy there. So yeah, I'm with you on uh the Bears and their offense.
SPEAKER_01Uh yeah, it's tough not to like Caleb Williams. I actually took a flyer on them at 16-1 to win MVP, just because I think their offense is gonna put up huge numbers this season. And it's not for a good reason, it's because their defense might be the worst defense in the whole league. Um, they've had nothing but injuries the whole uh training camp and preseason. Uh they lost three starters on defense, three really good starters. Um two in the secondary, and uh that was kind of the strength of their defense last year. I mean that I mean I mean they're linebackers. I mean, I I don't I just uh I don't see the pass rush. Uh I their offense is really gonna have to score a lot um to keep them in games. Um that's why I kind of I'm I'm I'm I think I'm kind of thinking they're gonna have a tough time uh getting the 10 wins um just just because of that reason, you know. And these you can't win all every shootout game. You're gonna win some of them and lose some of them. So um you have to play defense in this league at some point. Uh as far as the Panthers go, they're getting a lot of a lot of bad rap uh from people. It's mainly due to their schedule. Um, their schedule is just impossible this year. Almost gives them no chance of making the playoffs. Really unfair. Uh well, it's fair. They came in first place, so I can't say it's unfair. But um, I actually think their defense is going to be competitive. Uh added some great line, really uh top-notch linebackers, Devin Lloyd, Jalen Phillips, and Okarike. Um all replacements, all replacing poor, poor players that they had last year. And uh their front line's good decent and their secondary's good. I think their defense is gonna be tough. And uh and the Bears' defense isn't. I think Carolina's gonna score this game. Uh, I don't I don't want to, I I definitely like Carolina plus three in this game. I'm not pulling the trigger yet because it's just mostly two and a half, and I'm waiting, I'm waiting to make sure I get the full three. Um, if for some reason I can, I think Carolina's a great teaser bit uh for week one. But uh for now I'll hold off just because the number's not there, and we'll we'll give it out on Sunday with exactly what we have.
SPEAKER_02Okay, next we have Jets at Titans. Titans are one and a half point favorites total is 39 and a half. Yeah, I'm not like Ken Ward fan in fantasy or real life.
SPEAKER_00Uh from a fantasy perspective on Tennessee, I think Wandell Robinson is gonna get an insane amount of targets. And uh I like when PPR leagues late is a nice uh top backup receiver for a high four. The other side, the Jets, if Gino plays well, they can be competitive. If not, I think they're you're gonna see Kate Klubnick coming in the second half of the year to see what he got, and then they're gonna reset a quarterback next year.
SPEAKER_01I actually think the Jets uh have a decent roster. Um, you know, the coaching's not good. Uh, but if Gino gets time to throw, I mean, I think he could, I think that offense is really gonna be. I mean, it was so bad last year. It's gonna be night and day, I think, over last year. Um especially their offensive line gives them protection. I mean, he's shown that he can move move the offense. Um Brees Hall, uh, the receivers are decent. Uh I think they're better than Tennessee, I'll tell you that. Uh, you know, um Cam Ward's a great athlete. Um rookie year was shaky. He had bad coaching. The offensive line was bad. It hasn't gotten any better, it's bad again. Um, they did add some receivers, but I don't know. I I they're gonna be better this year just because they got Salah in there and he'll he'll raw raw them, raw them to some wins. Um as far as this game goes, I made I made the uh Titans 1.7. Uh and it is right now I don't have a I don't have a a firm grasp on this game, and uh to be honest, I probably will end up not playing it.
SPEAKER_02All right, wrapping up the one o'clock games, we have Saints at Lions. Lions are seven-point favorites total is 49 and a half. Uh expecting a big bounce back year from the Lions. Uh strength of schedule is a little bit easier, uh, missing playoffs last year. But I like their offense. Jameer Gibbs, one of the most explosive players in football. Uh and for the Saints, I'm I'm I'm high on Tyler Shuck. Yeah, Professor, what do you think about uh this matchup?
SPEAKER_00Sure. I mean, with the Saints, uh with Kellen Moore there on the offense, uh they run the most amount of plays uh in the fastest time between plays, which is good for fantasy. Uh so they're a very fast-paced team, uh, not a fan of their defense. Uh the loss of Tyson really takes away a good number two receiving threat. Uh they have a couple rookies waiting for their wide receiver three job right now. So uh a very under-the-radar tight end. He's really not a tight end, Juwan Johnson. He's more of a move, a big slot, but as a tight end, he's probably with the second most targets of all the receivers on the Saints as a tight end. And he's been had very late in drafts. I think he'll surprise people there. Uh Detroit, we all know the studs on that team. Uh and rumor has that Jared Goff is very involved in the offensive calls through PET SIG. Their new offensive coordinator was in Arizona last year. As we know, Arizona and Jacoby were set records for pass attempts per game. So uh with Jared Goff and PET SIG working, we're gonna see a lot of pass attempts for Detroit and also the loss of Montgomery and no real number two running back there leads to a lot of passing attempts for Detroit and a fast play. So I look for a lot of points in this game. That's my thought. What do you think, Bill?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I I think there will be a lot of scoring. Um yeah, getting back to the Saints on that draft pick. You know, you get the the the kid has, you know, it wasn't a it's not a fluke injury. That kid's been injured his whole career. And you're gonna pick him seventh in the draft. That's just that's just a bad job by management. Um, you know, not nothing against the kid, but he's not a sep you don't pick a guy like that seventh in the draft. Um, I don't know, they've had a lot of bad stuff happen, injuries. Uh I'm not sure how Tyler Shuck's gonna play. Um one thing though about the Lions is their offensive line is uh is is gonna be among the worst in the league, and then and and Goff is not good under pressure. Uh but when he does get time to throw, the offense will light it up. And uh the Saints don't have a glaring pass rush. So um I I actually think he might be okay in this game. Uh probably will be high scoring, but um I actually did favor the Saints uh at the beginning of training camp, but now I actually uh if I had to bet this, I'd probably tease the Lions. I I would not want anything to do with the Saints now in this game.
SPEAKER_02Okay, next we have Dolphins at Raiders. Raiders are three and a half point favorites total is 40 and a half. We'll have to wait to see Mendoza under center as Kirk is getting the nod in this one. Uh two inferior teams. Uh probably we'll see at the bottom of the standings at the end of the year. Uh, Professor, any fantasy involvement you see in this?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, um, I I think the the Dolphins are gonna be the worst in the NFL this year. And Devin A. Chan is probably gonna be one of the most overdrafted. He's right now going like early second rounds. And if your team doesn't score, it's hard for a player to score in fantasy. Um on the other end, for the Raiders, Brock Bowers could set records in the tight end this year in receptions. So the Raiders have the worst receiver for the NFL. They're gonna be they're gonna run a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel and uh run in a lot of play action with Clint Kubiak there. Um and also Colton Miller, their left tackle is back healthy. The Raiders added Tyler Lindenbaum at center from Baltimore. The Raiders have a very underrated, very good offensive line with a great offensive coach. So I think they can surprise. Um, but I'm very bearish on Miami. What do you think, Bill?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, they're uh I think it's consensus. Miami's gonna be the worst team, but uh I don't know. I I'm I don't think the Raiders have a chance uh to do it. Their quarterback uh group is the worst in the league. There's no quarterback group worse than theirs. Um you're starting Kirk Cousins. Um they got the worst receivers in the league, like you said. Um you know they got they might have a good running game. I mean, the offensive line is supposed to be good. They get they did pay they broke the bank paying Linderbaum. And um they got two good tackles. Powers Johnson's decent player. I mean, yeah, their line should be better. Coaching's definitely gonna be way better. Um yeah, I'll have some uh I don't I don't have any th real thoughts on this uh betting this game betting-wise. I don't have any futures with these teams, but uh um I'll have some survivor talk on uh week from Sunday. I'll have good survivor talk on this game.
SPEAKER_02Nice, gotta love survivor. All right, next we have commanders at Eagles, divisional rival here, divisional matchup. Eagles are four and a half point favorites. Total is 45 and a half. Uh, Professor, thoughts on this?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm generally avoiding Eagles and fantasy because they have an elite defense uh and a run-based offense here. Uh, it's also their fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons with strong manion. Uh, he's gonna introduce some new concepts more motion and play action there for Philly. Uh, not sure how this fits with Jalen Hurts, so I'm gonna wait and see on their offense, but love the defense. Washington, uh, Loray Tensel's a massive loss uh for them. And I think Jaden Daniels is gonna be over drafted in fantasy this year as well. I I just I don't think he's gonna have time to throw. And uh he's you know coming off an injury. I think he wants to scramble and run. I think it's very likely he does not play a full season this year as well. What do you think, Bill?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, uh man, Washington that losing that losing tonsil is just a killer, just a killer for that team. Uh yeah, you know, you never know when Jaden Daniels. I mean, he's a China doll. You never know when he's gonna get hurt. Um I mean that they added some good pieces on defense. I think their defense will be better. Um the Eagles have a great roster like they have for the past five years. Um it's the same pretty much this year, uh, without AJ Brown, and uh they'll probably be decent again. Uh I I don't uh I mean I I don't think uh I think they have a chance to miss the playoffs because of the coaching, but uh um and I think the Cowboys are gonna be really good. Um but uh as far as this game goes, um a month ago I uh when the when the number when the total was astronomical, I I bet under. I mean the limits are really low, so can only get so much, but I do have a really good number on the under. I wouldn't play it now, it's down to 45, but I still think this is gonna be a low scoring game. Um if you can find a 46, uh, which is is it's not out there, it probably won't show again, but um yeah, this I I mean this game is gonna be low scoring. Washington's improved defense. Philly got a great defense. Like Professor said, their defense wins them a lot of games. The Eagles and uh you know they kind of play keep away, so um no opinion on this game. Uh I wish I had uh I wish I had bet Washington's uh season wins under, but uh I missed the number, so I have nothing on uh futures for either team.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Rounding out the four o'clock games. We have Packers at Vikings. Vikings are one and a half point favorites. Total is 45 and a half.
SPEAKER_00Justin Jartson's kind of a wild card for me. I'm avoiding him because I'm down on Kyler Murray here. Um for Green Bay with the Josh Jacobs news here. I think Green Bay is gonna be very pass-heavy. They're already trending that way. Uh there's no guaranteed money left on Josh Jacobs contract. I think Green Bay is gonna be a very pass-heavy team. I like KOC a lot, and he's done great for quarterbacks outside of JJ McCarthy, but I just don't like Tyler Murray in real life to do well. Fantasy could have his ups and downs, but um, you know, I like the Packers passing game. I think the Packers could surprise people without Jacobs this year. Uh, I think they're gonna be an over team for a lot of this year, especially until Parsons is back to full health.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, they've got the Packers have big offensive line issues. They they they didn't re let guys go, didn't replace them. Um, I mean, they got talented receivers. I mean, Jordan loves adequate, even though he you know he throws off that back foot, which I hate, but uh he he makes plays down the field, no doubt about it. Um I really don't like I don't think the Packers are gonna stink. I mean, I think they're gonna win nine or ten games, but um yeah, I don't uh I don't think they're anything special. Uh whether you like Kyler Murray or not, I mean, it it's just it's an unprecedented upgrade from what they had last year. So uh Kyler Murray doesn't have to be great, he just has to be like average and and lead the offense like a normal quarterback. I mean, he's a great athlete. He's gonna make enough plays where the offense is gonna succeed. Their defense is gonna be really good. They've got a great offensive line, they've got the best group of receivers, their running game's gonna be good. The team's good. Team's really, really got a lot going for it. Um, that's my biggest future play, is uh over eight and a half Vikings. Uh I I I I bet it a lot. I took plus 20, plus 10, even, even laid 10. I think it's up to like over 30 now, but I gave it out on Twitter, you know, when it was when the line was lowered. But um, and I like the Vikings a lot in this game. I already bet it. Um I I would I would definitely lay minus one here. You can put me down for a play there. Uh Vikings minus one. I think they uh I think they come out smoking in front of their home crowd and uh get the victory. I made the game 2.8, so there's value minus one.
SPEAKER_02Heading into Sunday night football, have the big NFC East showdown. Cowboys at Giants. Cowboys are two and a half point favorites. Total is 48.5. Uh, should be an exciting game. I see this being high scoring. Uh these teams played each other last year. Both games were shootouts. Um, Cowboys offense is electric, Pickens and Lamb with Dak under center. And uh I think Dart's gonna have a big year too. I uh, you know, Penny stays healthy. I'd like to see him play a little bit smarter. I imagine he will. Professor, what do you think?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, fantasy-wise on the Giants. Uh, I'm not a fan of Dart. I mean, he's electric, but uh he doesn't outside of neighbors, and neighbors isn't 100% yet. He might not even play this game. Uh they don't have a lot of passing game weapons. Running back-wise, you're gonna see a rotation with Najee Harris, Singletary, Tyrone Crazy, Ian Scottaboo, obviously. Um don't love a lot of the Giants on the fantasy side, but I'm actually very high on Dallas overall as a team. I think their defense is better all season. Clinton Williams is big for their offensive line. I think uh Dak is primed and ready with weapons uh on offense that I think Dallas is going to be a very good team this year on both sides of the and not just through the air.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I totally agree with that, Professor. I I'm all over the futures. I got um I got them to make the playoffs at even. I got them plus 205 to win the division, and I have their win total over nine and a half, so I'm really bullish on the Cowboys, but not really in this game. I'm not at all. I uh I make Dallas 2.1. I I'll tell you, I think the G-men are gonna be up for this one. Uh they get a good roster. I mean, one one thing you can tell if a team has a good roster if uh if other teams are picking up their scraps, like the Giants had seven or eight of their cuts get signed by other teams. Like this is a decent roster. And uh, you know, I Harbaugh is I didn't I I think he deserved to get fired at Baltimore, but I mean he's gonna come in and inject a lot of energy to this team that they didn't have the past couple years. And uh I I think this team is uh can only improve. I mean, they were competitive last year with Jackson Dart. But I mean, the big risk with this team obviously is Dart concussion. If he gets a concussion, you're gonna have Jameis Winston the whole season. So um, you know, Scadaboo. Um is he gonna be the same player after that injury? Who knows? Neighbors, again, I mean, one of the best receivers in the league if you can keep him on the field, without a doubt. I don't think anybody'd argue that. Um, I think the Giants' offensive line is gonna be much better this year, too. It really is. They got a good group there. They and they actually have some good backups this year for once. They got Isaiah Likely at tight end. I mean, the team isn't bad. And even though they lost uh Dexter uh on defense, I still think that defense is pretty good. It's not horrible. They got they got good players, good pass rushers. Um, and the secondary is a lot of the same players from last year um who were very young and uh will probably be better this year. So I I think the team's gonna be competitive. Um I didn't I'm not saying I think they're going to the playoffs. They might. Um I mean, I think they're gonna win seven or eight games. I have no futures on them or anything, but listen, they're not gonna be a pushover, I'll guarantee you that. And I think Dallas has has got a tough task. But I love Dallas's team, like Professor says. But I'm I'm considering uh playing the Giants, have not pulled the trigger as of yet.
SPEAKER_02Okay, we're gonna backtrack here. Accidentally skipped a four o'clock game. The Cardinals at Chargers. Chargers are ten and a half point favorites. Total is 46 and a half.
SPEAKER_00I mean the Charger side, I love Mike McDaniel on the offensive side of the ball. They have a lot of weapons there. They go three or four deep at tight end, even. I'm curious to see if Ladd McConkey's going to take a step forward, have a big year on the offense. But uh as far as a matchup, Jacoby Brissett's up against it right here. Jeremiah loves 50-50 to play. And if I'm the Cardinals, I hold him out. I think the Cardinals are going to be struggling. Obviously, that's why the game's 10-10.5 points here. But um Cardinals are a great streaming option for a fantasy defense week one if you're looking for a matchup, as mentioned, because uh Brissett's sometimes a turnover and sack waiting to happen.
SPEAKER_01Oh, I totally disagree with that. I think it's gonna be a really high-scoring game. If you watch preseason, the Cardinals got a zillion points in every game. I mean, that they were they were scoring like crazy. And uh, you know, that's not just because it's preseason, no other team was doing that. So uh I think their offense is gonna be really good. They got great receivers. Listen, their schedule's murderous. They got a new coach, which I don't even know if the coaching staff's gonna be any good. Um but but that they have they're more talented than people think they're giving them credit for. Their offensive line is not bad. The receivers are really good. I mean, that Mike Wilson, he he he is so underrated, it's ridiculous. And I mean, if Brissett gets time to throw, which he could, I mean, he can light it up. I don't I mean, love's a rookie. If he doesn't play, they'll have other guys. Connor's out too, right? Yeah, Connor's gonna be a good one.
SPEAKER_00The only healthy running back they have is Tyler Algier.
SPEAKER_01Three of their top four running backs are out for the love isn't out for sure. They're he started practicing uh, I think today. So he's not out for sure. Um, but I don't know. Um, I I think Arizona's offense has a chance to do well. Listen, the line this game's 10 and a half. Are you kidding me? Like with this offense of Arizona's, and listen, the defense looked terrible in preseason, but I don't know. I don't think it's as bad as it as it looked in preseason. It's it's not as good as the Chargers, not anywhere close. Like Professor Says, love love the McDaniel hire. It's great. I think the Chargers are a good team, not knocking them at all. But them laying 10.5 in the opener here, I think is a complete joke. I mean, I made this line 8.1, and uh I'm I'm I'm definitely uh I have not better yet, but you can put me down for Arizona plus 10.5.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Now we head to Monday night football, our last game on the card. Divisional game, Broncos at Chiefs. Chiefs are two and a half point favorites total is 43.5. Uh expecting a big bounce back, bounce back year from the Chiefs here.
SPEAKER_00I'm actually not very high on the Chiefs this year. I mean, they lost their top two corners, uh, and then they they drafted a corner in the top ten to try to replace them. Um mobility-wise this year. Uh he generated a lot of points last year in first downs with his feet and legs. Um they didn't have much of a running game last year. That's why they went out and paid a lot of money to bring in Kenneth Walker. But um I I don't think the Kansas City offense is gonna be humming along. I think some of them said they want to be a running based team. Um I would surmise they're gonna be more of an under team this year, but I'm not uh optimistic with the Kansas City overall for what the consensus is. I actually think I like Denver better on the season. Denver is probably going to take a real for that, but I think uh Jordan Dayton has continued to get the roster he wants. I think Jalen Wile was an excellent signing for him. Um I really like uh fourth round rookie Jonah Coleman. Probably won't do much in the first half of the year, but if there's an opportunity, I like Jonah Coleman late in the year for them. Um so I I'm optimistic on Denver, pessimistic on KC from a team outlet outlook perspective. What do you think, Bill?
SPEAKER_01I don't know. Um I I could see your point with Kansas City. Uh I have a close friend that's uh really that's that's got a pretty good opinion, and he's he's really down on them too. Um I'm I'm not so much. I mean, I don't know. I I'm I'm kind of in wait and see mode with them. Um I think Denver will be pretty good too. Uh I mean it's uh uh an AFC West gonna be tough between uh Chargers, Chiefs, and Broncos. I mean it's anybody's division. Um I have no uh I have no futures in that division at all. Um and I I don't really have much to talk about this game. It's really far away. I'll I'll have a lot to say about it on Sunday.
SPEAKER_02Uh yeah, so we uh we wrap up the week one card. We'll do a quick recap of the plays. I will be giving my play out on Sunday when we do the new episode.
SPEAKER_00If I can make one fantasy tidbit for listeners that I didn't mention earlier, if you're looking for a late round running back that could really surprise us here, look at Marshall and Wloyd for Green Bay. He has a chance to emerge as a top 10, 12 overall running back. And he's currently going outside of the top 30 running backs. And um, so if you haven't drafted yet, take him in the later rounds. And uh it's it's a risky play, but it can really pay off.
SPEAKER_01I don't think it is I think I think it's a great uh great call. I mean, that's that's they don't have anybody else. He's it. He's gonna he's gonna he's gonna be he's gonna be in there 85 to 90 percent of the plays. So great call, Professor. I'm gonna go with Vikings minus one and the Arizona Cardinals plus ten and a half.
SPEAKER_02All right. Well, uh good luck, everyone, and uh we'll see you soon, Professor.