The Dollars & Sense Podcast

The $75 Billion Question: Is SpaceX Worth It?

Tim Ellis & Brodie Haggerty Season 5 Episode 17

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SpaceX is finally going public, and the numbers are staggering. With an expected valuation of $1.75 trillion and just 5% of shares available to investors, this could become the largest IPO in history. 

In this episode, Tim and Brodie break down what an IPO actually is, why SpaceX is attracting so much attention, how it compares to Tesla's famous IPO, and whether investors should be excited, cautious, or both. Most importantly, they discuss what this means for everyday investors and how to avoid letting FOMO derail a solid financial plan. 

If you have a question, suggestions, or a topic you would like us to cover, please send an email to: podcast@foxplan.nz

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The information shared on The Dollars & Sense Podcast is general in nature and does not consider your individual circumstances. Dollars & Sense exists purely for educational purposes and should not be relied upon to make an investment or financial decision. Tim Ellis (FSP778196) and Brodie Haggerty (FSP778174) are both Financial Advisers providing advice on behalf of FoxPlan Ltd. FoxPlan Ltd (FSP39630) is a licensed Financial Advice Provider. Important information can be found at www.foxplan.nz/disclosure 


SPEAKER_00

Right now it is June 12th. June 12th, New Zealand, not June 12th, US. In less than 24 hours, we're going to have an IPO. The one of the largest IPOs, it's the Talk of Town. SpaceX will IPO 12th of June in US time. What will this look like? What does it even mean? What does it matter to you? What can you do about it? And what what are the numbers behind this thing? It's mind-blowing. Welcome back to another episode of the Dollars and Sends podcast. As per usual, you're listening to myself, which is Tim Alice, sitting right next to me, my co-host, uh Brody Haggerty. Hello, Tim. Excited for this one? I I am too. I I knew this topic would be right up your alley. Speculation and excitement. Yeah. Elon Musk, all of that, the good stuff. The good stuff. So uh just before we get into this week's episode, I I think um, as as per usual, but even more so this week, pretty important we make sure we get out a disclosure for listeners. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01

Everything we say on today's podcast is general of nature and not intended to be personalized financial advice. Um we're not telling you to rush out and buy this IPO and we're not telling you not to. So keep that in mind, please.

SPEAKER_00

What about the seek the relevant professional?

SPEAKER_01

Yep, do that too.

SPEAKER_00

Okay. So if they come and seek you out, are you gonna tell them your prediction?

SPEAKER_01

No.

SPEAKER_00

Are you gonna tell anybody on this podcast?

SPEAKER_01

No.

SPEAKER_00

Do you have one? Yes. Are you gonna keep it to yourself?

SPEAKER_01

I'll share it with you.

SPEAKER_00

Okay. I look forward to I don't I'm sure I can guess it, but anyway, let's get underway with this week's episode. So um SpaceX is gonna IPO uh 12th of June. Today's the 12th of June here. It's not the 12th of June there. So we're right on the precipice of this. And by the time this episode air, SpaceX would have IPO'd. I think before we start diving into um, you know, what does this look like, what are the numbers behind it, what can you do about it? Perhaps just in in in your words, Brody, an IPO.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, so IPO, initial public offering, right? It's when a company is a privately held company. So you've got you might have some venture capitalist firms in there, you'll have the owners, you'll have employees. Well, every company's privately owned to start, right? Yeah, of course. Yeah. Um, you know, if you own a tradey business down the road and you're 51% shareholder and your wife's 49% shareholder, then it is a privately owned company. I actually have my dog as a 1% owner for tax purposes. Nice. You you get that through, did you? Yep. Nice. Um so it's when they decide to go public and start trading on the stock exchange.

SPEAKER_00

I think you're gonna have to go a little bit deeper than that. Mm-hmm.

SPEAKER_01

So why they do it? Well, they do it for funding. Well, two reasons really. And this is where you can get get pessimistic, I guess. They either do it to raise funding for future growth or as exit liquidity for the original owners and employees to sell their shares at a higher price.

SPEAKER_00

Okay, I'm starting to understand why you might not want to share your prediction on this week's episode. So uh, I guess what you're trying to say is imagine they um they they they they own this company, it's grown to a size, uh a very large size, and for somebody else to buy that, it would be a rather large check. So what they can do instead is uh uh agree to sell a portion of shares to the public.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and that's when institutions can invest, you can jump on Jerseys and invest, so it's giving everyone access. Great. To all of it? No. No, they'll sell a percentage. Yeah. How do you know how much they're selling? Five.

SPEAKER_00

That's not just is it? It is tiny compared to other IPOs. Even other IPOs by the same per uh by Elon Musk. Yeah, that wouldn't you usually do like 50%? Uh no, so t Tesla was between 15 and 20%.

SPEAKER_01

Okay.

SPEAKER_00

But the difference that that is. Uh sorry, no, Tesla was uh between 18 and 20% was free float. It's called free float available shares. So that's what's actually going out, um, agreeing to be sold. And once somebody owns those shares, they're allowed to do what they want with them. They can sell them on the secondary market, they can hold them their core. But they're only selling 5%. Let me just explain um what free float means and where these shares actually come from. So the the owners, the the founders, the private owners, the venture capitalists that have put money in to become owners before it's public, they get to decide how much of the company they actually want to sell to the public. Now, obviously, the more they can sell to the public, the more money they can raise, but the less of the company they're going to own for themselves. They give up control, right? Well, depending on how much that they they give away, they might not give away all that control, but the value of the other 95% of those shares will be determined by how much people are willing to pay for these five percent of shares.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, but i if you think about the control piece, right? Uh the CEO is directly responsible for to the shareholders, right? Correct. The more shareholders you have and you have big institutions coming in, you're now as a director of that company, you now have to report to them and you have to answer to them, and they can they can overturn you in a shareholder's vote. Yeah. Correct.

SPEAKER_00

Big Elon doesn't want that. Absolutely. I mean think of it this way. Um imagine Auckland's got a thousand identical houses that are all worth a million dollars each. Um so the suburb collectively is worth one billion. Only 50 houses out of all these thousand are going to be sold. That's five percent. I got it. Sorry?

SPEAKER_01

I got that.

SPEAKER_00

You do have an accounting degree. I I knew you would get there, don't worry about it. Um so if lots of buyers compete for those 50 houses, and those 50 houses sell for more than a million dollars, all the other identical houses are gonna be worth more than the million. If they sell for less, then all the other 950 houses will be less valuable. But they're only so uh SpaceX is only offering up 5%. Now, if there's a lot of demand for this stock, which there is, then all of that demand has to squeeze into only 5% of the shares available.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and also so when when you're making 5% shares available for sale, you're diluting your initial shareholding, right? Correct. So the the shareholders are uh foregoing? Yeah. Every one of them is foregoing a percentage of their uh shareholding to offer these shares up. Yeah. That's where they come from.

SPEAKER_00

But they get paid.

SPEAKER_01

Fat stacks.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, so unlike the secondary uh market, the stock exchange, every bit of money paid for these shares and the initial offer goes to the company, goes to SpaceX, goes to those owners. Once they're on once they've been purchased, when you go to say I went and bought one of the first shares on on public offer day, that money gets paid to SpaceX. Now that I own that share, I can sell that to whoever I want, and the money will go to them. But for the first time, the money goes to SpaceX. So what that means is what people are willing to pay for those shares of that 5% is gonna determine the entire value for the other 95%.

SPEAKER_01

Happy days. Mm-hmm. Happy days if you're a SpaceX employer and you've been stacking shares in the share equity scheme.

SPEAKER_00

Uh only if you're gonna plan to sell them. Do you think that's what a lot of them plan to do? Can't answer. Can't answer that. Yeah, please don't.

SPEAKER_01

Anything else you'd like to add about what an IPO is, or we've we cleared that up pretty much.

SPEAKER_00

Well, uh so it's the initial one. Um so companies can in the future uh again decide to raise some capital and release more shares uh to the public. Yeah, we've we've seen that recently with Air New Zealand, right? Yep. So capital raising can be done that way. But this is the initial. This is the first time it hits a stock exchange where any Joe blog can go in and buy the shares.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and there's quite a lot of hype around it giving it Elon Musk and the size. Yeah, the size, how well Tesla did.

SPEAKER_00

So this will be the largest IPO in history. Uh expected.

SPEAKER_01

By almost three times. So if analysts expect it to to value in at 75 billion in terms of amount raised.

SPEAKER_00

Yep, and that's only for five percent of the company. Yeah, that's a lot of money. That's why Elon Musk is um uh tipped to be the first trillionaire, considering how much of the rest of the company he owns. If enough if millions and millions of investors want to buy this, which is what we're hearing.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, if if they hit that 75 billion number, then the company will be worth 1.75 trillion. Wow. So in terms of other IPOs, Alibarber was 25 billion. Facebook, meta, 16 billion. And these are big players, right? Mm-hmm. Huge. What about Tesla? Uh I don't have Tesla. Tesla didn't even fall into the the top ten.

SPEAKER_00

Okay, so in in June 2010, Tesla was actually only worth about 1.7 billion. Not 1.7 trillion. No. Uh the difference between a billion and a trillion? Uncomprehensible. Uh-huh. Correct. So when Tesla IPO'd back in 2010, um, the price was $17 per share. Have you got some stats on what the uh opening offer for shares uh for SpaceX is going to be? No. $135. Okay. Hmm. Bit of a difference. Look at that. They sold about 13.3 million shares for Tesla and raised 226 million.

SPEAKER_01

Difference between a million and a billion?

SPEAKER_00

Pretty large.

SPEAKER_01

75 billion. Wow. Yep. That's gonna be a hype in FOMO event, isn't it?

SPEAKER_00

Well, it's why we're doing that uh this week's episode and uh it's the talk of town. And yeah by the like I said in the intro, by the time this episode airs, um a lot more information will be out there.

SPEAKER_01

Watch the conge unfold. So I mean a $1.75 trillion market cap is big. Yes. If you think about the biggest Where would that sit in the SP 500? Do you know? Number six. Number six. So you've got Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and then SpaceX. Wow.

SPEAKER_00

Then Meta. So it's it's it's not even a public publicly traded company yet, and it will take position six if it was on the SP 500. Yes, which is ridiculous, right? I think yeah, Tesla came in at number 44, and I think that was one of the highest um inclusions to the SP 500. Now, uh just before people get worried, actually, this is a very important point. Um the SpaceX after IPO day can cannot be on the SP 500. Talk us through that. Well, there's a number of criteria to be included in the SP 500, one of which is it must be at least 12 months of um free trading. So after 12 months of being a publicly traded company, it can be considered for the SP 500. So on day one, um, it simply can't be there. Um there's there also needs to be a higher percentage than 5% um free float. So they would need to um release more shares before they could be included on the SP 500. Oh, is there a float limit? Uh yes, a float minimum. Float minimum, yeah. Yes, yes. Um yeah, so there has to be sufficient liquidity trading volume and it has to have positive GAAP earnings over the last four quarters. So none of those criteria are met on day one of IPO. And the the reason I thought this would be very important to make clear on this week's episode is a lot of our listeners will be invested in the SP 500 either via KiwiSaver or uh if they've got a diversified managed fund portfolio, um, and they might be sitting there thinking, well, I'm gonna uh my portfolio is gonna have to take a major radical change if a company comes into the SP 500 at number six, that's a large market cap waiting. Uh, but that's not the case here.

SPEAKER_01

Correct. I mean most companies spend decades trying to get into the SP 500, let alone into the top ten or into the like, you know, what what what what is the acronym they call the top stocks at the moment? Is it or no?

SPEAKER_00

I I thought we're still on Mag Seven.

SPEAKER_01

MAG 7. Right. So they'll be in the Mag 7, hypothetically on day one.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, what I think I I think Elon would start coining a new phrase. He'd probably limit it to six just to who would that kick out? That would kick out Zuckerberg. Did you say did you say number seven would then become meta? It would. Yeah, I think that would be a bit of a um bit of an F you to Zuckerberg, wouldn't it?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, the X versus Meta Wars.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, there you go. That's definitely what he would do.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. But it's it's interesting. It's the the company's not being valued on what it earns, is it? Absolutely not. Yeah. Uh very, very good point. It's it's a speculative growth stock in that regard, right? Like, I mean Tesla would keep going up when they were making a loss because people saw the future potential.

SPEAKER_00

Yes. They they were running on government support as well. Yeah. I completely agree. I I was gonna arrive at the same point as you, but where are you coming from with this uh, you know, if we're talking about earnings and actual revenue earnings for SpaceX?

SPEAKER_01

I guess it just comes down to the the the bull case and the bear case. Talks through that. So if you're bullish on something, you you think it's going to go up, and if you're bearish on something, you think it's going to go down. So, I mean, to start the bear case off there, the valuation is disproportionate to the company's profitability.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, and so why would somebody be comfortable paying something so disproportionate? Because the future success has already been priced in. Yeah. So people are speculating that this company, SpaceX, and what they're trying to achieve is going to be that much more valuable than it is now, they're willing to pay somewhat extraordinary price to earnings.

SPEAKER_01

Extraordinary, never never seen before. Mm-hmm. On an IPO. How much higher can it grow?

SPEAKER_00

It's going to be the sixth biggest company in the world. The market is about to tell you in in 24 hours how large the market thinks it's going to grow. Um yeah, I'll be watching. Give us a feel for bear case. No, I I do to be clear, I'm not asking you to give a prediction. No. Okay, I'm not asking you to tell me what you think is going to happen. For listeners listening, uh, I don't think that's the agenda we're driving because we're going to wrap this episode up with so what? What can you do about it? What can you take away from this, and what should you be considering? But before we get there, uh talk us through this bear case.

SPEAKER_01

So in in terms of the bearish outlook or the pessimistic view on how this might go, um, I mean, you've got the valuation risk, obviously, which we've talked about, then you've got regulatory risk. So let's not forget that this is spaceships and putting things on Mars and satellites and the Trump administration's pretty pretty pro sending ships to Mars.

SPEAKER_00

He's already in his second term.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Willowed a third. Oh, well, you're not meant to be allowed a third at the moment.

SPEAKER_01

Will the next government want to fund those sort of projects? Will that be you know, but will will it be a priority for the next government? Um which is going to have a huge influence over whether or not you can throw rockets in the air, right?

SPEAKER_00

Sure. Um and look, I I I I think I I I couldn't agree more that you need to um always consider risk first. Sure. We can't live life only acting on, well, what are the risks? What are the risks? What about the return? Like Yeah, I'll get to that in the bullcase. Oh, okay. Well, can can we can we get the show back to a positive or a a potentially greedy kind of line of thinking?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I'll just mention one more risk, the key person risk, right?

SPEAKER_00

Uh well I don't think Elon is very risky.

SPEAKER_01

You know, he seems um based, um doubt worth, um factual and a few more good hand gestures and a few more risky tweets.

SPEAKER_00

I don't understand what the hand gesture thing was about. I didn't notice anything at all.

SPEAKER_01

No, I'm more I'm more talking about the key person risk as in the reason why this has so much hype is because it's Elon Musk, right? Yes. If someone one of the one of the main factors, yeah. Yeah. If someone else was running this company and they they weren't a visionary but they wanted to IPO a space exploration company, they might not have uh as big a success as this IPO is going to have.

SPEAKER_00

Well, let's not forget this isn't his first IPO, you know, Tesla. He quite successfully IPO'd Tesla in 2010. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

But if if Elon Musk was if something was to happen to Elon Musk and he had to step away from the company, uh are investors going to have the same positive outlook? Or conviction. Or conviction. I think not, right? A lot of this is because there's a visionary behind it. Yeah. Yeah, I'll give you that.

SPEAKER_00

Yep. A lot of the hype is Elon, right? Hmm. Could Kanye come in and run this one?

unknown

Kanye.

SPEAKER_00

Well, they've all been having lunch at uh at the White House, you know. I wonder if there's been a backroom deal here. Yeah, probably. Key person insurance. Um bullcase then. We'll we'll get yeah, we'll get some positives on the board, eh? Well, I I think you have to. I mean, if you look at um Tesla's IPO, um, so they they started at $17 a share. The first trade was $19. Close that day on IPO day was $23.89. That means price to close was up $40. People looking to front run things, get in early and be first. In that case, they made a 40% return in one day. We designed portfolios with an expected return before tax and fees of just the market average around 10% or so. Yep. These opportunists made 40% in one day. In in in less than 12 hours. With big capital too. Big big cap yes, because it's such a large large large company. And now we're talking about SpaceX. Huge amounts of money. There's really no limit to one single investors. Um none of our listeners would be able to have price impact on this thing.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No slopage in that.

SPEAKER_00

Um yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Now, some differences between the two of them though. Uh Tesla uh was looking to raise and raise 226 million. SpaceX is uh expected to raise 75 billion. So I I I don't think that you can look at this saying, well, Elon Musk IPO' Tesla, and this was the result when we're talking about two extremely different companies.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Past performance does not equate to future return. Give me that. Uh another bill case is that it's rockets.

SPEAKER_00

It's pretty cool. Pretty cool. Talk me through pretty cool. You mean uh you like rockets, is that what you're saying?

SPEAKER_01

No, they're they're a global leader in rocket launches, and there's there's a lot of talk about you know going to Mars and making a colony on Mars and space exploration, and it's it's all very exciting, right? Absolutely. For some people. Um myself included. So there's there's there's huge future opportunities if the world is heading in that direction. If the plan is to be an intergalactic race, then yeah, absolutely. Okay. These these guys will be at the forefront of that.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Whereas people that were buying Tesla were thinking, what's the next model going to be and is it going to be popular and how many different models? Because they only had one model when they IPO'd.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, but but then again, Tesla was also revolutionary, right? It was very much it was electric cars are gonna be the the only cars in the world at some stage. That was the sentiment. And then 100%. So this sentiment is is is similar, right? It's we're gonna be flying in spaceships to different planets. These will be the spaceships.

SPEAKER_00

Sure. And will the prices be completely on valuation or speculation? Well clearly speculation. Yeah. They're not selling many rockets to people at home.

SPEAKER_01

No. No.

SPEAKER_00

I'm not gonna buy a ticket to go on a rocket ship in the next five years. Maybe the next fifty, though. I that's why I said five.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, the future, right?

SPEAKER_00

We asked the audio engineer of this podcast if he would ever buy a ticket to go on a rocket ship, even if he had all the money in the world. The answer was no. Fair enough. I think he was scared. I'd love to. I would. Adventure. Hmm. Anyway, I guess what we're getting at here is um well future catalyst, right?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

A lot of a lot of future catalysts.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

I think you might be saying this because you don't want egg on your face, knowing that this episode is going to air a week after the IPO. But would you really look at the price per share on Tuesday next week and call that a win or a loss? Or would you look at it in 12 months' time to determine that?

SPEAKER_01

Uh yeah, probably the first six, six months to twelve months. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Six months to twelve months before you're going to declare a bull or bear.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah. And I don't really care either way, but um it's not gonna impact any of my investing decisions. But um I don't know. Bet betting against Elon Musk has been very expensive for some people. Correct. People have shorted Elon Musk, doubted Elon Musk, and he just finds a way. That's why he's the richest man in the world, right? Mm-hmm. And soon to be the first trillionaire.

SPEAKER_00

Potentially the first trillionaire on this IPO. Okay. I think right now is the perfect place to cut this and get to so what? Yeah, so what so what? Well, so what? What should you do about it? You you you you know very well that your clients are coming through and asking you about it, and they're gonna continue to for a while now. So how are you gonna answer them when they come in and say, what do you reckon about the SpaceX? Should we take a punt? Should we include it in our portfolio? Do we need to have this conversation?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I I I'm always happy to have those conversations, and um my conversation will be based around do you know the risks and are you prepared to lose? Okay. So what I mean by that is you want to add it to your portfolio that we have designed to give you a retirement outcome with the highest degree of confidence. No, don't do it. Correct. Well, if uh that's my view. Yeah, as well. If you want to have a punt and you got some spare money, no more than five percent of your total net worth, let's go. And you want to have a crack, be my guest. Um, don't just invest because of the FOMO. Mm-hmm. You know, the fear of fear of missing out of it, you say pump 40% in on in the first ten minutes and you want to get in.

SPEAKER_00

You can speculate on FOMO. Absolutely. That's what drives speculation. If you're having a bit of fun with it, as long as the outcome doesn't impact your um goals or yeah, absolutely.

SPEAKER_01

Don't yeah, my my advice would be don't try and make a quick flip um because that's gambling. Unless unless you unless you have an apartment.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I I I yeah, no, sorry, I was working on the pretense that um these were people, clients that wanted to have a gamble on this thing for an invested interest in something that's already very interesting.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I think there's a difference between straight up gambling, which is I'm gonna try and buy it on the opening and hope for it to pump 50% and make a few bucks here or there. Sure. And then the next step is speculating. So it's not quite gambling, you're speculating. You want to hold this for the long term, yeah, believing that it'll go up.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um, so for the speculators, I'd say don't FOMO blast into it.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um, I'd I'd hold off and wait to see what how how how it lies. Might miss a big opportunity with that kind of mindset. Totally. Um, gambling, speculation, you know, you know the risks.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. But uh I think the one thing what we're what what what we're agreeing on here is it does not need to be, it's not imperative to be included in your achievement of your financial plan and your goals and the outcomes. Because most people can afford not to be an amazing investor, but they cannot afford to be a terrible investor. Correct. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01

Don't uh yeah, I mean, I've had prospects come to me that have done these sort of deals before, right? They they brought Tesla at all-time highs and then I know, I'm I know what you're talking about. They slapped a hundred grand into Tesla at all-time high on advice from a family member. It went down, their portfolios was worth thirty thousand. They panicked, cashed that out, and then Tesla ended up going back to its all-time high about twelve months later or whatever. Horrible, horrible situation for for this prospect. Um they lost everything they had pretty much.

SPEAKER_00

The sad thing about that is most people can afford to get wet to where they want to be without needing to do that. Correct.

SPEAKER_01

But they can't afford they can't afford the Yeah, because we always talk about in financial planning, right? The every decade we're trying to make people make one really good decision, and we're trying to make people we're trying to stop people making one really bad decision. And that's one of those really bad decisions if you go all in on something.

SPEAKER_00

And I think that this opportunity that is about to unfold in the next 24 hours has presented that opportunity to a lot of people. It's been the talk of town, and some people will have a very high level of conviction. You're hearing things along the lines of uh it's Elon Musk, uh it can't fail, he's done it before, he'll do it again. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

It's the future. You also have to consider that everyone has this information. Correct. What makes you think that you're gonna be faster, more disciplined, better than fund managers with billions and trillions of dollars of equity. Absolutely. The little guy gets smoked in this uh situation most of the time.

SPEAKER_00

So what do you think's going through the heads of the insiders on this one? The founders of the company, the starters of the company. Of course they're licking their lips with payday. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Uh yeah, yeah, I'd say so. But I I I have absolutely no idea what their true intentions are.

SPEAKER_00

Okay, well, I cannot wait to watch this one unfold. Uh, I think that's a great place to um to leave this. Um by the time this episode airs, we'll have a lot more information. I'll be interested to listen to this episode once again. But as for this week, that's it.