Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
The NYC Report, New Miami Office Overload and The Tea on Rent Declines
What if I told you Miami is now the second most valuable real estate market in the US, and a significant migration of wealth and talent is heading that way from New York and California? This episode is a deep-dive into the seismic shift rocking the real estate market; we explore a groundbreaking property proposed in Miami, and an incredible shift away from pre-internet capitals. We'll touch on the complexities of the housing market, from trends in transaction volumes to the fiscal implications of high-value property sales.
From the tantalizing allure of Miami's impressively low industrial vacancy rates to its transit recovery rate (the country's highest), we're taking you on a journey through the data driving this trend. We'll consider why remote work is fueling a boom in cities like Miami, with a reverse downtown trend thriving during the pandemic. This episode offers a peek into the rapid development of office buildings and what this speaks about the future of the real estate market. We'll show you how the landscape of this bustling city is being altered, with new spaces changing the face of areas like Edge Water, Midtown, and Brickell.
But it's not all about the high-end market; we also delve into the realities of affordable housing in Miami. From examining Q3 numbers to discussing the competition between landlords and tenants, we're pulling back the curtain on some hard truths. We consider how the city is addressing the affordable housing challenge and how new projects are reshaping neighborhoods. Fasten your seatbelt for an enlightening round-up of the latest trends and insights in the world of real estate. This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the economic and societal forces shaping the future of our cities.
Alright, everyone. Welcome to episode number seven.
Speaker 2:I love it. Lucky number seven.
Speaker 1:That's wild. I feel like we just started this, like yesterday I know, and it keeps evolving, and the story keeps evolving.
Speaker 2:We just wrapped up the third quarter here of 2023. Yep, and before we dig in, we're going to dig into office today, which is really fascinating because, while we have buildings selling below replacement in the rest of the country, we have amazing, new, groundbreaking product being proposed right now in the city of Miami.
Speaker 1:And we brought all the receipts today. It's pretty awesome.
Speaker 2:We also have a whole report quantifying what we've been referring to as that national shift in focus away from pre-internet capitals. We're going to dig into all this but to touch upon what happened in Q3 in our residential markets, because we always want to think about that flow of money and how it's been quantified. And the press not to malign anyone but people, the press and general lex report in the market as a whole but the market is not a monolith.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and we've had tremendous drops in transaction volume at price points below the median, but even larger drops in inventory. For many reasons, people are locked into their homes, so when the market is reported on overall you say, oh, there's a drop in transaction volume year over year. However, looking, for example, at the single family home segment from Miami-Dade County, each segment like I dig these things up in little price tranches basically anything past half a million dollars transacted with more volume this year than last year and some at all time highs for the quarter. Wow.
Speaker 1:It's. You know, I know Miami is a bubble, but like I forget that it's a bubble sometimes. I mean a bubble as I mean like it's its own universe.
Speaker 2:Right, right, like it's not affected by much outside influences. Well, it is, but the forces that are booing up the markets are stronger. So it's all in the equation. Just the forces that are pushing our markets are stronger than the forces that would be taking away from them.
Speaker 1:Got it I think it's.
Speaker 2:All those variables are there, it's just which ones are strongest here. Okay, and what we're seeing? Another thing I always like to look at our sales past one to two and then $2,000 a square foot, which really zeroes in for new luxury product at prime locations, and we are still in some segments for 500, 600 percent higher than pre COVID. It's a whole new world. It's like it's looting to it 600 million.
Speaker 2:No, no, 600. I was going to percent. Yeah, that many more transactions at various high prices per square foot and all sub markets are up between like 300 and 600 percent. It's crazy, that's insane. And that's the flow of that money, that that wealth and talent that is coming here and, as we know from IRS data, a higher net worth people are moving at a higher percentage, which makes sense because the redesign that's in there somewhere. And this is here. So, ryan, print out this fantastic report from JP Morgan.
Speaker 1:It's a hundred, it was 111 pages. Sorry, I killed you.
Speaker 2:I killed a few trees, it's fascinating and it quantifies I believe it has. It has charts that show data from all sorts of lots of cities, but it's focused upon New York City as the comparison.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so so it's the. The report is New York City after COVID and it's New York City's recovery which you know you'd be like. Why is it interesting to you in Miami? But the interesting part is it correlates a lot of things to Miami and Miami ends up in the same lists as New York City, so there's a lot of data in here. That is just absolutely fascinating. Thank you, anthony Hernandez, for posting that and getting it to us.
Speaker 2:It's really fascinating because it quantifies a thesis that we've been discussing, which is the inevitable shift towards new capitals. That's one of the constants we have in this world. No place is the capital of the world forever.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And that's not a revolutionary or negative thing to say, it's just a fact.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I think you know I would I always call. I call them superstarsities or former superstarsities and for most of the, let's just say, this century you've had. You've had New York, san Francisco, la where else am I thinking? Chicago, seattle, perhaps those are superstarsities, right, and Miami was definitely not included on those lists.
Speaker 2:No, not at all. It wasn't on the same stage at all. Yeah, and now on that topic, of those cities who just listed, there's a chart here in this report. The charts net outflows from various cities, estimated net out migration and the largest numbers, one, two and three for largest net out migration are San Francisco, chicago and New York City, in that order.
Speaker 1:It's wild.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:And where are we here? Miami is, oh okay, Everyone's negative, except for Charlotte, it looks like we are. We were negative 0.5%.
Speaker 2:For above that list.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, and San Francisco was negative 2.46. Yep.
Speaker 2:Exactly, and then there's another chart here that. So I often talk about how momentum cycles feed themselves.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And when there are budget shortfalls it kind of leads to more budget shortfalls, which leads to more owners taxation policy, which seems counterintuitive, because why would you kick out and tax capital when your jurisdiction needs capital?
Speaker 2:Yeah, but as we talked about. Politicians don't really care. They only they're not aligned the long-term prosperity of the jurisdiction, they just want to get reelected. So they're going to keep pandering to the growing percentage that does not pay in. And on that topic, there's a great chart here about New York facing a fiscal cliff that will require large budget cuts and or tax increases. To close, now, we had a data point I think it was 2020, 2021, the median income of Manhattanite relocating to Miami was something like $1.2 million, wow, and for somebody from New York City it was over 600,000. So now this indicates that, given this huge gap in the budget, more taxation would be required to close the gap, which, of course, will lead to more capital leaving, and the top 1% of taxpayers account for over 40% of the budget.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:So it's. It becomes like a doom cycle.
Speaker 1:Yeah, a doom spiral.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:Yeah, here's an interesting one. This one is IRS migration statistics. Oh yeah, top five and bottom five states. Florida was the top Yep With 2.7. Yep, and New York was minus 1.3 only the only thing lower than that is Alaska. There you go. That's funny.
Speaker 2:And actually going back to it, to point on the money migration that was in Bloomberg recently. That was, it was a New York and California both experienced a trillion dollars of assets under management leaving their states and that Florida was largest recipient for those offices heading out of New York and that we now have more AUM than the state of Connecticut for the first time. That's why that ties into all of that.
Speaker 1:And last week we talked about how, or two weeks ago we talked about how Florida now is the second most valuable real estate market in the country.
Speaker 2:Yep, we surpassed New York. New York, oh, right on topic, we didn't even plan for that last week.
Speaker 1:And so the interesting thing about this report is this report is not particularly biased about. It's not like this was run by the state of Florida. This was run by JP Morgan about.
Speaker 2:New York City With the New York focus, new.
Speaker 1:York focus. So it's not like they were. They wanted to throw shade on New York. They were just reporting on the on the data. Do you have the one there about the transit?
Speaker 2:Yes, it is somewhere in here. Oh, while I have this one in front of me, this is one in industrial vacancies. Miami has the lowest industrial vacancies by quite a bit, and New York is somewhere there in the middle of the pack. So actually we're leading the whole city list for lowest vacancies for industrial.
Speaker 1:And somewhere in this massive list I know there's a lot of papers. You can organize it better. There was a sheen there that talked about urban recovery as a whole and they gave it like out of like out of 100 points, correct. And Miami was 78. That was the second highest on the list. The most the highest one was Boise, I don't know.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they've had a boom there.
Speaker 1:They've had a boom there.
Speaker 2:People from California fleeing, and hopefully they don't California Boise.
Speaker 1:But it's just funny because, like the rest of them weren't even close. Miami was 78, boise was 82 out of 100. And everything else was like in the 50s and 60s.
Speaker 2:And here's one for office vacancy, oh there we go. Manhattan is number seven. We're number three Miami, so we're leading the pack there as well.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and speaking of offices, we've had quite a week. We've had quite a week as far as offices being announced in projects.
Speaker 2:Here's the transit one.
Speaker 1:Oh yes, so, Miami Dade, the mass transit recovery 100% versus 2019.
Speaker 2:We're number one on the list.
Speaker 1:Yeah, new York City is 73%.
Speaker 2:Yep Not number one on the list.
Speaker 1:That's wild.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And it goes Miami Houston Boise.
Speaker 2:Yeah, the MTA keeps live data on subway usage and it is not anywhere close to pre-pandemic usage which affects. Just think of the trickle effects of that in the economy of stores of restaurants.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean in New York. That's a very easy way to keep track because not everyone has cars, correct, but everyone uses transit in New York City. Yep, and I think this is extra hilarious because Miami is really not known as a trans city and people when we don't like riding transit Correct. So so we know. This tells me actually. This tells me that people are coming from other cities where they did ride transit.
Speaker 2:That's an excellent point and they have that habit.
Speaker 1:Yes, because locals I'm sorry they're not riding transit, they're really not.
Speaker 2:No, no, no, no, it's not the culture.
Speaker 1:Yes, it's not. It's not in the culture. You basically ride transit Miami if you're not from here.
Speaker 2:Right, which is becoming increasingly the case.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and also I would say the transit is also those two things. Basically, if you're in a lower income class, you do use transit, use the bus. That's more the extent of it. Correct, if you're a higher income class, miami, you drive. If you're a higher income class and you're not from Miami, you take whatever rail is available to you. That's basically how it cuts. So what this tells me is that people are moving here from New York, places that do have good transit San Francisco and they're using the transit options that we have available.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's people who are not instinctively averse to taking mass transit.
Speaker 1:Exactly, and that's probably half population of Miami. Exactly, yeah.
Speaker 2:That's a good thing, yeah, so. A bit of a culture incursion here, yeah, a culture of breathing some fresh air on the yeah, I like that.
Speaker 1:But Miami is that, that's a wild stat. 100% transit recovery, that's fantastic Versus 2019.
Speaker 2:These are all really really good signs of everyone. And one thing also I always say is that data points don't exist in isolation. They're being driven by things, so it's not like they're just going to disappear. So the forces that are pushing this have just begun and it is part of that shift into a 21st century reality, which is inevitable. And on that topic, there's a chart here showing remote work. So it says close to 35% of New York workdays are still remote, and that's a lot. That's more than one third and this is a point that I've been making for a while is that if just 10% of people redesign their lives around the capabilities of the internet at scale, that changes enormous. And that's what is happening right now, and this is why we're seeing new cities emerge also.
Speaker 1:So there's something interesting about that. One of the reasons that Miami did well during the pandemic is because we had what is called a reverse downtown. We had far more residences and people living downtown than worked there. So when other cities that were predominantly office emptied out, they moved to places like Miami that had residential in the downtown areas. Yep.
Speaker 2:Yep exactly.
Speaker 1:So because of that we filled up during COVID and that lifted the entire city. Other cities emptied out. We filled up Yep and not just because they moved from New York to Florida, it's because we had residents available in the downtown area.
Speaker 2:Yep, exactly right, exactly right. And the topic of foot traffic average daily pedestrian count in Times Square we are still significantly down, pre-covid.
Speaker 1:Interesting. Yep, I mean, I don't know, times Square has never really been a thing for me.
Speaker 2:I live in New York City. I never went there.
Speaker 1:I went there once and I was very underwhelmed. It is underwhelming.
Speaker 2:Actually the old Times Square was more interesting. When I was a kid At least, you still had prostitutes in places with fake IDs and peep shows. I recall those. And then at some point it became Disney. It was very odd, and I mean I wouldn't really frequent either version, but the Disney version was somehow worse.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's like sanitized.
Speaker 2:It was very odd and I went there. They made it all pedestrian and I went there and it was these not to be mean, but it was these obese American tourists sitting on chairs, holding large drinks, looking up at the screens and looking at advertisements on the walls.
Speaker 1:It's like a Wally.
Speaker 2:It was really creepy. Actually I was like, wow, the street walkers and the peep shows were somehow better. But perhaps it's going back to that now.
Speaker 1:We'll see. Yeah, so guys, you can poll's report as JP Morgan and the title of the report was New York City. Just how I pictured it. That was the title of the report, yeah, and here's one for homeless population.
Speaker 2:New York is one of the largest homeless populations among peer group. This is wild. It says, according to this report, which is for 2022, 61,840 homeless people. Miami has 3,276. Yeah, representing.1% of our population, whereas that one represents.7. That's a huge difference.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I mean you do have to adjust for capita, but did.
Speaker 2:So for New York it's.7% of the whole population In Miami it's.1. Wow.
Speaker 1:And even with that comparison, yeah, I think Miami is something interesting. We have what's people. It's controversial, but it's called functional, zero, homeless and basically that means we've tried or helped everyone who wants to and will receive help.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:That's functional. Zero means basically, we've everyone that's left on the streets. The vast majority of them are refused help, correct. They refuse services, they refuse beds or whatever they're being offered, and they want to stay on the streets.
Speaker 2:Yep, and I have friends actually who are part of this effort, who reach out to these people, and that's 100% accurate.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:They've. Even they can show them pictures, say, look, it's a nice facility, it's nothing horrible, and they just don't want to go. And at that point there's nothing you can do with their adults. You can't force them.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and so that's why it's called functional zero.
Speaker 2:Makes sense. Yeah, yeah, they have it here as a percentage of population. So New York is marked in red. It's one of the higher ones, at.7. What is San Francisco?
Speaker 1:San.
Speaker 2:Francisco is the highest.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, they have it 1% of the city is homeless. Yeah, wow.
Speaker 2:Wow. And that said, though, the gross number is 7,754,. But yeah, per capita it's 1%.
Speaker 1:Casey.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's crazy.
Speaker 1:I don't. There's only only 7,000 homeless people. I don't believe that there's no way.
Speaker 2:There's no way. That's 1% of the population.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think that's vastly under counted, perhaps Just from living there, even back, even back when I did in 2016. Oh, look, here's your. Here's the budget gap one.
Speaker 2:Oh yes, yeah, that budget gap is a real thing. It's a real real thing and especially as high value earners leave and take money with them, it becomes an even more real thing, and these things can escalate quickly.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, I feel like we could do a three hour podcast just on this report, just just on this report, but anyway ties into our, our deep dive in office buildings.
Speaker 2:Yes because this is all that shift of where people are coming to to live and work, so people are not coming here any longer to just park money or go on vacation. This has become the place to pursue one's version of the American dream to live into great.
Speaker 1:And and, as we've covered in previous podcasts, in other cities they are. If they have office space, it's either vacant it they're demolishing it, they're repurposing it, they're selling it for less than replacement value, they're giving it back to lenders, they're getting foreclosed on all those fun things. And this is across the country. Yes, not just one city, this is basically everywhere. However, last week in Miami we had four. Four made major office Class A project done and this one I. It's not gonna show up well in the video, but whatever.
Speaker 2:That's the one for 1000 group right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, this, this is an edge water and I know this picture is kind of bad, but this is 195, the julia total causeway, and this is a gas station. Right now it's like a shell gas station 1000 museum was a gas station also. Yeah, there you go, but this is a 45 story class a office and this is the type of office You'll see it like Hudson Yards or something. Yeah, and this is like it's super fancy.
Speaker 1:And this is like a mile away or a mile and a half from like the business district and brickel. It's just sort of like. It's just sort of like there by itself Chilling, it's a.
Speaker 2:Super great spot.
Speaker 1:Although it is gonna this, that intersection at bascain in 36 and 195 is going to be bad. They're gonna have to.
Speaker 2:They're gonna change that.
Speaker 1:Yep. So this is really cool and it's gonna have ridiculous views because there's really nothing around it like it's wild. It's beautiful yeah it's beautiful.
Speaker 2:I actually I I corresponded with Lewis birdman on this topic. He's a friend of mine. When I when I saw the article and regarding the location, he told me that he sees it as the gateway to Miami in the main connection point, and that it's an alternate for people who want class A, who don't want to be downtown, especially if they live in the beach look at the look at the design.
Speaker 1:It's beautiful. This, the design is really cool. It's not something we've seen before in at least from me, in office projects.
Speaker 2:I think it's very beautiful and look at the.
Speaker 1:That's like the. That's like the valet area.
Speaker 2:And he mentioned all the people moving to edge water and so forth, which we've covered, the quantity of projects coming there. So it's a very, very smart play. It's a beautiful project.
Speaker 1:They're placing a kind of slightly ahead of the curve of where population is going and speaking Of that area, so the midtown edge, water, design district areas like on fire. This is another office project that is only like six blocks from that. It's also on 195. It's right across street from midtown, beautiful, and this is another class A office that's I think this was only like 12 or 13 stories, but very high end. This is somewhere where that, where you put like meta or or microsoft or apple or like, or a hedge fund, like correct, we're building these.
Speaker 2:Who would have?
Speaker 1:thought like 15 years ago, I know, and this, this is not an area where you would think, oh, I'll put office there. No no, like it's nowhere near the cbd or brickel correct, but it is where product is being delivered.
Speaker 2:So, looking ahead the curve, it's a smart thing to do, yeah and then Moving across the bay.
Speaker 1:This is on alton in my beach right.
Speaker 2:This is another office building in my beach and they call it by biophlic biophlic whatever that word means, I think I mean I think it means it's covered in plants. Yes, yes, it looks very green.
Speaker 1:So, and this is yeah, it's like a five, six story of our office building in my beach on alton road. How?
Speaker 2:wonderful. Yeah, that's just fantastic.
Speaker 1:Continue this office story. I have too many papers here. Oh, this one coming back across the bay. This is 848 brickel Beautiful. This is the key key building. So it's on. It's just south of eight street and this is like a 40 50 story office class a building. This one is going to include two two peddl courts included. Wow very miami. So we have how optimistic is all this, it's wild, very optimistic.
Speaker 1:Oh, and then also in this photo they're of course not showing it, but one brickel's lady center goes like right here, right. So you have two, two massive oh, and then behind it, right over, there is 830 brickel.
Speaker 2:Amazing.
Speaker 1:So you have three massive office towers within like three blocks of each other. Just wild, amazing. And listen, I, as you guys will know, I am a very big proponent of Work from home and hybrid, but obviously companies still see A value or an investor still see a value in building these flagship office spaces.
Speaker 2:And they may accommodate hybrid schedules. It all could be part of it. Yeah, I think it is.
Speaker 1:Like it's just beautiful, like look at the.
Speaker 2:And look how beautiful the buildings are. You may want to come in a few times a week exactly.
Speaker 1:Just just for the amenities. And then there was one other one, and too much way, 20 papers. Oh, this one is in my world center. This is the the toffee and not the toffee. Who is this? No, this is a. I'm not talking today.
Speaker 2:Too much.
Speaker 1:I'm overloaded.
Speaker 2:This is the.
Speaker 1:Ababi capital in Coral Gables. Oh yes, yes, I'm totally butchering and I'm sorry, but this one has one of the towers is condo, residential, the other one is office. It's like the smaller tower is like 300,000 square feet of office, amazing. And so this one's in my world center and it's going to have condos and residential right next to it.
Speaker 2:Amazing. So it's just 20 years ago, this would have been unthinkable.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean, look at this, like when I we talked before, when I got here in 2017, this was blank. Yeah, like everything you see in this image was blank. It was dust.
Speaker 2:Yep, exactly right. And again put this together, it is very optimistic future-paced renderings with all those economic and population indicators. Yeah, and I think it becomes very, very clear that we're still in the early days of a major shift.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and then I have one other. So this is from Brickle, another Brickle thing. So this is the story from Next Miami Development plan approvals granted for four Brickle towers on the same block and that is the total unit count for that is 1,995. Wow, and this is like West Brickle. This is one of them.
Speaker 2:This is Amazing, yeah, amazing, it's the city of the future being built.
Speaker 1:I really believe this. You guys all know how much I enjoy the news. I can barely keep up with this.
Speaker 2:Yes, yes, barely.
Speaker 1:As you can see, I'm drowning in papers here.
Speaker 2:This is not the reality in other cities in this country at all.
Speaker 1:This is Central Brickle by PMG. It's two towers. This one's West Pine in Brickle. This is that one by the Aston Martin guys photo. This is they're calling it eight calioccio or something, I don't know. But look at like the. It has like this wild architecture and it's kind of like a music hall in it.
Speaker 2:Aston Martin does a little bit too. It has that yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, same, it's the same. Oh, this is also a gas station right now.
Speaker 2:It was all gas stations, yeah, gas stations being replaced by high rises, and you know electric cars taking over.
Speaker 1:You know it's funny. I saw a story Maybe it was this one or I think it was this one and it was a press and they were covering it and they said they in like the top of their stories. They said it was replacing a gas station that was like the last one in Brickle and they framed it like oh no, like it's replacing, it's like replacing one of the only gas stations in Brickle and I was just like what?
Speaker 2:It's this, you know it's. Yeah, so a lot of reporters have this development, bad evil developers, bad everything has to stay the way it was, but how about it doesn't? We don't need it anymore.
Speaker 1:Yeah, Like I mean I, we do need gas stations, but I don't think gas stations should be in the urban core.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, correct, correct. That's what I mean.
Speaker 1:Exactly, they should be west of 95 somewhere, is that?
Speaker 2:best use of that piece of land Exactly.
Speaker 1:And it's probably not very environmentally friendly either.
Speaker 2:That too.
Speaker 1:So it's just like the guys said, there's a lot going on. There's just there's so much going on and like I don't even know.
Speaker 2:What was the big? A couple of big office lease signings also. Oh, was it, sony.
Speaker 1:Oh yeah, Sony is moving into 545, Windwood, the one right by.
Speaker 2:It's a very big lease right. They're consolidating their offices into that building.
Speaker 1:Yeah, good for them. I'd love them to lease that, because 545 Brickle is the office building. That's sort of by itself. It's like out there by 95. And there was another lease signing that I saw. That I'm forgetting right now, but Greenberg Traver re-signed a big lease. Okay.
Speaker 2:That was a renewal, that was big.
Speaker 1:Oh, and speaking of leases, that's going back to the story. What I was saying is I saw a story on the real deal about how some of these investors are getting terrified because of their exposure to WeWork.
Speaker 2:Oh yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and a lot of these. Like WeWork has so much queer footage in New York City and they said they put out a news thing a couple of weeks ago that was like they're going to renegotiate all of them.
Speaker 2:Ouchie.
Speaker 1:And I think that probably strikes fear into Owners, owners.
Speaker 2:I mean as it should, yeah, because they're going to renegotiate for far lower terms, obviously.
Speaker 1:Well, they're renegotiating.
Speaker 2:Geez, you know, walk away, walk away. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It is. So what's the story that you like recently?
Speaker 2:Any other stories that I liked recently. Honestly, I've been digging into Q3 numbers because the third quarter just ended, so I've been a little bit myopically focused this week on that and it's really interesting seeing this whole thesis play out in those numbers. What I mentioned, when you subdivide by price ranges and all these things, you don't see declines, anything but the lowest price points. And also what we're seeing across the board for every kind of segment of pricing you could create, is that supply has not kipped up with demand. Okay, so the percent differences in transaction volume are in every case smaller than the changes in inventory. Okay, so across the board, inventory has not kipped up with supply at every price point.
Speaker 1:Interesting. That's an interesting point Also on the other side, that rentals the supply is starting to catch up. Good, the demand Fantastic. I just signed my lease yesterday at my new place, congratulations. I'm moving to Canvas and I got a relatively good discount on it.
Speaker 2:That's wonderful.
Speaker 1:It was listed they had discounted a couple like $100, and then I put an offer in for $100 less and they took it.
Speaker 2:That's amazing.
Speaker 1:I got a really good unit for a great price.
Speaker 2:That's wonderful and they have great amenities there the rock climbing wall and everything I know that and they have like a rooftop pool, which I'm very excited about. So that's as it should be. That's a healthy thing in the market. It shouldn't be some like cutthroat awful.
Speaker 1:And there's just in one block, in Brickle, there's 2,000 units in progress and they were all approved. By the way, that's amazing, they were just like approved.
Speaker 2:People should be able to rent a place and not pay 40% of their income. Okay, this is all a wonderful thing, so I'm all for this. And Miami is not afraid to build back to that point and I think you had somebody say this week, showing that the small number of projects approved in New York City housing units yeah, it's in there somewhere.
Speaker 1:It's in there somewhere which?
Speaker 2:is. It was a very small number, yeah, in the size of the city. And again, that's also quite the opposite of the reality we're seeing here. We're not only already adding office, we're also adding residential units.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I saw in there. For some weird reason, I don't know why, but it said in New York City you cannot build on parking lots. I don't know. No, it's what's in there. Oh, it's in, there, it's in there somewhere it said like you're not allowed to build parking on parking lots, like there's some like restriction that you hear it's like you know that's one thing I love about Miami is because we are such a new city, we don't really care that much about these things.
Speaker 1:It's like a parking lot, a gas station. I remember there was a big uproar in San Francisco months or a year ago. They declared like a Nordstrom parking lot, historic, like historic.
Speaker 2:They're like. I did some great shopping there in the 90s. You can't tear it down.
Speaker 1:It was it was like it was just a pavement parking lot from dress there and they said it was they said it was historic.
Speaker 2:Of course they did. They just don't want anything built. San Francisco is a textbook case for Nimbio's and hiding behind preservation.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you know, it's interesting to speak of Nimbio's. Do you know the Sears in Coral Gables? Not well, but it's like. It's like it's like a standalone Sears, it's not a part of them all, just it's on Coral Way and I was reading that the developer bought it and they're going to redevelop it and they are able to do it because they live local and they actually reached out to the community to try and talk to them and get advice and they basically told them. They said we're going to build something. We'd love to talk to you, but if you don't engage with us and don't try and talk to us, we're just going to build anyways, because we can. Yeah, and it's it's a big fight, but but the thing is they could. Just they could start tomorrow if they wanted to.
Speaker 2:Right, so they're being nice.
Speaker 1:They're being nice.
Speaker 2:That's a good thing yeah.
Speaker 1:So it's like you know, and that's one of the other things is, you know, in Miami we've mostly been able to like corral, our Nimbis into, like certain areas. Miami Beach, my beach like south of fifth Coral Gables, a little bit of coconut Grove, like we just sort of like smush them all in there and like they can live out their life.
Speaker 2:Happily, let them, let them be there.
Speaker 1:Let them be, Otherwise we're just building every single nook and cranny.
Speaker 2:It's really incredible. Yeah, here's another chart that from from our collection of papers here Government debt to revenue ratios oh, snap. This is a fantastic chart because it has far reaching implications towards the very top of this list. Number four is New York City, which appears to be at over 100% 100% yeah, Hence who's the number one? Number one is Charlotte, oh wow. It goes Charlotte's and Antonio. Chicago, new York, miami is number four off the bottom below below 40%. Wow.
Speaker 1:Yep here oh the whole thing.
Speaker 2:Yeah, this, like I said, we could probably do a like, a like a four hour podcast just on yeah no, the budget stuff just reinforces that point, that these momentum cycles feed themselves and that these jurisdictions that are losing population and population that actually contributes will double down on their policies. That will accelerate the property crime. Oh, exciting.
Speaker 1:Look, look, look, look where San Francisco and Seattle are. Wow, the very top of the list. And this list it's talking about property crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants. And New York, it goes Boise. New York, Boston, Rally, LA, San Jose, Miami, and then San Francisco, Denver and Salt Lake City are at the top.
Speaker 2:Poor San Francisco.
Speaker 1:Yeah, well, you know that's, that's something else. It's always just to look at these charts regarding crime, because it's you have to really go into the nuance of it, mm hmm, like you're saying, you know, because if you look on paper at Miami and San Francisco, miami looks way more crime-ridden, looks more dangerous, mm hmm. But if you go to those cities and walk around them, san Francisco feels far more dangerous, shockingly so. Yeah, and that is what point I always make. I said it's not always the numbers that play the game. Correct, you have to. Like Miami may have, I think. I think Miami had more violent crime, like murders and stuff, but San Francisco has so much more property and petty crime, the daily crime, the daily crime, that it feels like magnitude is more dangerous.
Speaker 2:Well, it affects your daily life more, with more frequency.
Speaker 1:Yep, look at this one, this one you'll like.
Speaker 2:Oh, home affordability appears to have some connection to zoning policies. You don't say supply and demand, boys and girls Imagine that.
Speaker 2:Wow, the Wharton Residential Land Use Index. I love it. Yeah, so New York City is all the way at the least affordable zoning policies. It was housing. Yeah, it's right behind San Francisco for the low score. So housing higher score equals more affordable, okay. So, yeah, it's right there towards the bottom. With LA and San Francisco, miami is more towards the middle of the pack along the line, and that's one of those things. Actually, one of my peeps is when people will criticize Miami's emergence and growth and pinpoint things that they find to be wrong with the city, such as housing affordability. And these people are often based in New York City and I look at them and I wonder really you're criticizing? Not that, again, I'm a proponent of affordable housing, it's not that. But it's those in glass houses.
Speaker 1:I know.
Speaker 2:It's. When did New York ever have affordable housing? I grew up there it did not, and that never stopped New York from being perceived as the capital of the world. At its zenith, it had horribly unaffordable housing. Everyone has PTSD fermenting their first apartment in New York City. It's a harrowing experience, and yet New York is still great, okay. And then those same people are saying, oh no, miami sucks because Miami doesn't have affordable housing. Like what are you talking about?
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's wild. You know, it's like I said, it's one of those things that people will look for the bad, because if there's something, whether it's Miami's, whether it's taxes, it's politics, whatever, something that they're jealous of, they're going to find the bad points to make themselves feel better 100%.
Speaker 2:And then there's also this impulse in the human psyche to resist change. It's unsettling, and people are used to thinking of New York and Miami in a certain way.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think they've always just thought of Miami. As you know, New York's like step sister. That was not as cool. It's like the frat party.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that reality is changing, although you still can party here.
Speaker 1:So, and I have a question for you what is your favorite project recently in Miami? Like, just like if you had to pick one that's besides my park? I know that. I know, hi Russell. No, no, no.
Speaker 2:You know, it's really hard for me to even say that, because I look at things so much and it's like someone asking my favorite flavor of ice cream. I really don't have one. I don't have one that sticks out where I can say, oh, I love that one so much more than the others. I really don't have it, okay, I just. It's like I sort of consume this world all the time and I appreciate so many different things. There isn't one which I appreciate so much more than others that I'm going to say it's my favorite. I don't like this with ice cream also. Maybe it's just me.
Speaker 1:I think if I had to pick one, it would be the Block 55 in Overtown.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:Because I think that is such a great community ad. It's like 500 senior affordable housing. It's Target, Ross Burlington and Aldi and some restaurants and 10 years ago, even five years ago, you didn't go into Overtown or in Overtown was a food desert, Like there was no grocery stores or corporate ones anyways. Now they have Publix and soon to have Target and Aldi across the street from each other in Overtown, official Overtown, Amazing. And it's also like right there with Brightline and it's just like it's such.
Speaker 2:I like projects. I love that story. That's great because that adds to the community. That's essential.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and you know when you go into the Publix there it's people who are from that community that are working there.
Speaker 2:Yes, that's an excellent point.
Speaker 1:And it's full circle.
Speaker 2:It's providing employment. It's curing the food desert phenomena. Yeah, it's creating housing for regular people, yeah.
Speaker 1:And then right next door, like two blocks east, you have the most connected transit station, probably in all of Florida.
Speaker 2:It's pretty awesome.
Speaker 1:So you have Brightline and Tri-Rail soon and Metro Rail and Metro Mover, like right there. So I really like when projects add holistically to the cultural and urban fabric.
Speaker 2:Yeah, because those things then reinforce the other points. They all build upon each other. Yeah, and it's a real breathing, living ecosystem.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I like that, and I also love when developers take chances on neighborhoods that are up and coming.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:My billion moving into is by NR Investments. They did Canvas, they also did filling station lofts and the other one over there.
Speaker 2:Which is right there across the street right.
Speaker 1:And those when they built those. There's nothing there, it was dust.
Speaker 2:People thought it was odd.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:They were kind of out there in the standing out by themselves.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and then Mellow added their rentals there. So I like that. I like when developers take chances, Like you know. I like projects that you know, whatever they're in Brickle and they're pretty and stuff, but it's just another building, Like it's just another.
Speaker 2:There's other ones around it. There's other ones around it.
Speaker 1:I really like when developers take that chance. They go like we think this neighborhood is going to be the best, we're going to go for it.
Speaker 2:So on that topic of taking chances and how quickly realities change in Miami, so 10 Museum is the building next to 1000 Museum on Viscayne, and I'm friends with Greg Coven, who's developer for that project, and he was born and raised in Miami Beach and he told me a story that when he built that building there was nothing there because that was built like two cycles ago I think he started building that 2004, 2005, something like this.
Speaker 2:And when he wanted to build there, his friends he told me. His friends from Miami told me he was crazy because there were crackheads in the park.
Speaker 1:That wasn't that long ago. Isn't that amazing? So with that, this is a random fact. But when they opened the Metro mover to what was then Bicentennial Park, they it only was open for a year because there was no one around it and that park was full of crackheads and they were. They literally would steal the metal like things off the stairs to sell for scrap.
Speaker 2:So that was amazing Scrap metal cellulose going on. What are you doing there?
Speaker 1:They would take it off of the stairs. There's like the risers, the metal things on the ride. They take them off for scrap. And that was only 15, 15, maybe 20 years ago.
Speaker 2:It's amazing, it's amazing.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And now I mean our airports, are well beyond pre-COVID numbers. Everything is flowing, and as quickly as we've seen this change happen since 2004 or 2005,. Whatever, I just said, 20 years, let's say we're 20 years. The next 10 years, I think, will be even more interesting.
Speaker 1:And I'm very excited for all these projects to sort of pop and deliver, because it's just going to allow more people to be here, it's going to bring rents down, it'll add to the tax base, it'll help with the infrastructure and impact fees 100%.
Speaker 2:And those are real communities of real people who live there.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I think one interesting thing is we're still building condos, but we're building so many multifamily that they have developers want people to be in them.
Speaker 2:Correct. It's a good thing, yeah, I love it.
Speaker 1:It's a good thing Miami's not afraid to build.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and any closing notes for this episode, no actually I'm going to be taking the new Brightline Tour, Lando, most likely.
Speaker 1:Oh nice.
Speaker 2:In November? What day? What day Third or fourth? It's a Friday. I'm speaking at a conference, the Propi Web 3.0 conference.
Speaker 1:Oh yes.
Speaker 2:And then that same night or afternoon I have to get to Orlando to get weighed in because I'm competing at the ADCC.
Speaker 1:Open. Oh yes, you have your super thing.
Speaker 2:No, that's the following weekend.
Speaker 1:Oh OK.
Speaker 2:So I'm competing in Orlando at the ADCC Orlando Open. It's a grappling tournament. That's that weekend, and the weekend after that I have a super fight at my gym. So it's like it's too dramatic, it is in the cage but it's just grappling. They have a fight night at my gym. This is my double life. Super fight means no weigh-in, it's any weight class, and so my opponent is significantly heavier than me, but, alas, it's OK, she's significantly heavier than me.
Speaker 1:Wow.
Speaker 2:I know they told me super fight and I said oh, no, weigh-in. I said yeah. I said oh, how much does she weigh?
Speaker 1:Because I knew they wouldn't be nice to me and give me somebody smaller than me.
Speaker 2:That's awesome, and it's going to be streamed on pay-per-view and it's all going to be at MMA Masters, where I train every day hello, everyone in Hylia. So I train with the team there and I don't do MMA, but I do all my grappling and wrestling with them, the guys Wow.
Speaker 1:That's awesome, yeah, well, guys, thank you for listening, and also I want to let you know that we film this every week here at Office Lodger, Every two weeks. Sorry, any more coffee? I don't think we do. We film this every two weeks here at Office Lodger. This is the content room and you guys can use this if you are a member here, and it includes three cameras and I'm always tweaking and adding to it, so it's amazing, just the progression.
Speaker 2:Now we're in episode seven. What he's done to this room is remarkable.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's fun. I love iterating on things like tweaking and just like, oh, it could be a little better over here and this could be a little better, and I you know it doesn't always work, it's a little bit of a turning up. It's amazing. Yeah, like you know. Hey also, it's our birthday soon.
Speaker 2:That's right. December 4th, December 5th.
Speaker 1:Yes, we're both crazy sedentary. It's over here which I need to make this podcast. I feel like we should be like mortal enemies or something Like it's weird. But anyways, yeah, our birthdays are coming up, so if you want to guess anything, you can.
Speaker 2:I know We'd have a wish list for Amazon for whatever fans we have out there. Shout out everybody. We accept gifts, yeah.
Speaker 1:I need to make like a wish list for this room of things that I want. Oh, yeah, I'm going to make one of those only fans girls with them, with the Amazon wish list. That's fantastic. Okay, guys, before this goes any more before we go all the way off the rails. Thank you for listening and please make sure and download and tell your friends. We enjoy making this for you and we hope you enjoy it.
Speaker 2:Thank you, have a great week, everyone. See you guys in two weeks.
