Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
Exploring Economic Ebb and Flow: High-Tax Jurisdictions, Miami's Billionaire Impact, and Real Estate Revelations
Ready to navigate the complex world of political dynamics and economic trends? Your journey starts right here, with an episode that promises a wealth of insights on high tax jurisdictions like California and New York and the interesting contrast presented by the governors of these states. We dissect the politicians' self-serving tendencies and the different population trends in these areas, offering you a fresh perspective on the unfolding events.
Ever curious about the economic shift in Miami and the impact of billionaires moving to the city? This episode has got you covered. From an in-depth conversation with our guest - a host of a monthly real estate show, to discussions on the philanthropy of Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin, we explore the profound economic changes Miami is witnessing. We also discuss some exciting real estate developments and updates in the region, providing you insights into the current real estate landscape in Miami and what the future holds.
As we wrap up the episode, we invite you to join us in exploring the vibrant city of Miami. From its unique blend of culture and politics to the potential impact of billionaires like Jeff Bezos moving to the area, we leave no stone unturned. We also share our holiday lineup and express our love for the Miami Crane Tracker, inviting you to share your thoughts and questions in the comments. So why wait? Tune in for a roller coaster ride of thought-provoking conversations, insightful analysis, and exciting predictions.
Hello everyone, Welcome to episode number 10. 10. And we've upgraded yet again today.
Speaker 2:Yes, we have some amazing new cameras, courtesy of Rosa. She got them for her episode that she makes and she's letting us borrow them for this time.
Speaker 1:He has a whole control center here. It's pretty awesome.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's nice and you can like, you can change, you can change the camera on the fly. It's pretty neat. So these are, they're called Meevos by Logitech, and you get up to like six of them so you can have like a sports, or your you did see them, they put them around it and then you can do the whole thing. But anyways, episode number 10.
Speaker 1:All right, let's get into some current events. As Ryan and I have been saying, the Miami Ascension story just keeps writing itself, as we predicted it would, because momentum cycles are very, very real things and once it builds, they just gather steam and keep going and history doesn't go backwards. So we have an interesting little bit of information from the California Economy and Taxes Twitter account, and they said here that this is by California quote. Tax payments came in weaker than expected. Isn't that shocking whether taxpayers are leaving. We now estimate 2022, 2023 revenue to be 26 billion below budget projections. This weakness will likely carry forward. Also shocking, our updated forecast is 58 billion below budget budget budget projections across 2023 to 2425. So, similarly, new York has budget shortfalls that it is experiencing as well. Also, back to the topic of California, their mansion tax has brought in far, far less than they sold taxpayers on.
Speaker 1:So, this ties together two important concepts that we're going to see playing out and affecting our world. One is this building of momentum, which is again very, very real and people don't pick up until it's so obvious, hits her in the face. So 1% of taxpayers account for over 40% of revenue in these high tax jurisdictions and when they leave, just 10% of them decimate your tax base. We have the mayor of New York now blaming the migrant situation on their tax situation. All that stuff. It's just begun. And point number two one thing I always keep talking about is that politicians double down on losing positions because their prosperity is not aligned with their jurisdictions. All they care about is getting reelected and they will keep pandering to the growing percentage. Does not pay in, so they get reelected. That's all they care about, which is why you see obvious losing positions get doubled down upon like this.
Speaker 2:I know we talked about this last episode, but it's just. It's just that part boggled my brain. Mm-hmm, I know it's like they, I don't know. Like they're so self-centered I guess you have to be self-centered to be a politician. I think it's a self-selected pool, but I don't know it. Just I don't know. It's wild.
Speaker 1:They want to get an office, they want to stay in power. You want to get their pensions to do you know, get rich while they're at office. That's look, look. You all become genius stock traders when they're in Congress, and I'm a registered independent. That's on both sides 100%. So that's the game. That's how you see them double down on losing positions. They're getting rich.
Speaker 2:Oh boy, yeah, you know, and we had the debate last night. Why is? And I didn't even watch it, I just heard like the me too.
Speaker 1:I just watched highlights of the highlights. I didn't watch it.
Speaker 2:And it was both of them were so terrible in like the opposite direction. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Terrible. It's quite the allegory of our times, actually.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Having them both on stage together. I kind of like I look there from a peculiar observation.
Speaker 2:Because I mean, if you really think about it, California and Florida are both some of the most dysfunctional states in the country, just like in completely opposite directions.
Speaker 1:Alas, yes, and also I mean you have the governor of a state that is losing the population. It's debating the governor of the state that is had the net highest population growth in 2022.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I saw I think Omar tweeted that out In 2021, 2021, 2022, Florida had the most net.
Speaker 1:Yes, the highest in the nation. That migration Correct?
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And just when we dissect those raw numbers, we have IRS data that indicates that we're actually getting. We're getting the taxpayers. It's amazing, so correct, and they're losing them. So it's kind of funny having those two sides debate, and I also. I'm also very amused that Newsome seems almost pompous in his tone when meanwhile his state is is quite literally losing taxpayers. It's kind of funny to me. But again, he doesn't care. He puts his makeup on, he gets on stage. It's a happy day for him. He gets attention.
Speaker 2:I think that's what it is. I think I think most politicians would have been actors.
Speaker 1:I think they would have been happier 100%, but then they kind of are they get to read a teleprompter.
Speaker 2:That's really what our presidents do they retail prompters some better than others, because this speech is already written for them About a secret at all.
Speaker 1:They have speech writers, they read the teleprompter. They don't give unscripted Talks. Do you know who does actually who? Vladimir Putin, no, he does. He gives two to three hour opening press corps. He holds conversations in a chair, answers in detail with no script.
Speaker 2:Just all. That's the wrong question.
Speaker 1:I'm not commenting on the positions they take, which is the ability to speak without a teleprompter. I don't think most of the last time. Here's a question for people out there when was the last time a US president spoke without a teleprompter, even to a group of children in a fifth grade schoolroom? Probably not a long time. I'm serious. I'm actually curious about this. Now we have a new tool. Everyone and this is a Ryan's friend- yes, I have a friend.
Speaker 2:He's a Twitter friend and his name is Karr Sweeney and he made MiamiCrainTrackercom.
Speaker 1:He messaged me as well. I didn't know he was already friends with Ryan. How cool is it.
Speaker 2:It's really neat. It basically just lists all of the programs, all of the projects under construction and it includes proposed approved under construction. So all three categories, and in those three categories in neighborhood there are track, which is the greater downtown area, which is Brickle, overtown, winwood, downtown, edgewater, midtown, that's the greater downtown area. There are 49,133 units in those three buckets.
Speaker 1:That's incredible.
Speaker 2:And then listen to this Under construction there's 20,000. Wow, 20,385.
Speaker 1:So our data point was that we have the highest or second highest, if you want to know what it is right now units under construction as a percentage of existing inventory of any city in the country.
Speaker 2:And we're double the next closest city.
Speaker 1:That's pretty amazing. That's pretty amazing.
Speaker 2:And it is sort of relative if you think about it without. Some cities have far more units, but we're double the next closest.
Speaker 1:That's why, as a percentage, that's our gross trajectory and that's back to the point of momentum I keep talking about. If that is on indicator momentum, I don't know what is that's optimism? That's putting money to work. Most of New York is building nothing as a counterpoint. So what do these two things symbolize? One place is building nothing, experiencing budget shortfalls. And one is building enormously as a percentage of existing base, with actual taxpayers moving to it. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And I think an interesting thing is that the rents in Miami have started to glide down because of those numbers Correct.
Speaker 1:And that's a great thing.
Speaker 2:And I think we're starting to see it more widely now. The dam has started to crack a little bit in the past couple months, but now it's starting to cascade, which is fabulous it's wonderful. Because basically it's market economics. They will continue to charge more until they can't.
Speaker 1:Supply and demand boys and girls. It's a real thing.
Speaker 2:It's very simple, and we've gotten to the point where landlords and developers have reached the peak of what they can charge, more or less.
Speaker 1:Good because we're one of the highest percentages in the country of what are called cost burden renters, so we very much need it. And then also on the buy side we have a disappearance of inventory below median pricing. That's one thing that I tracked really closely. I find it interesting Because when the market, when you press or whoever reports upon the market, they report upon transaction volume of the whole market across all price points and you see seemingly drastic drops in transaction volume. But really it's because inventory below the median price has pretty much gone away. It's down over 80% versus pre-covid. That's why we're on 600,000 for a single family through 200,000 for condo. It's like it's a dog.
Speaker 1:And that's also I think that's something that could be addressed by more price attainable rental inventory. So, it's all a good thing.
Speaker 2:It is a good thing and it's funny. I was on a cruise.
Speaker 1:A birthday cruise.
Speaker 2:Yes, birthday cruise. Our birthdays are very soon and I was talking to people on this cruise and it was interesting Because I told them how much my rent was, because they'd asked where I'd from. But well, I'd say I don't know, I'd look, overlooking the port, and they'd be like, because they'd be like from Kentucky or something, right, iowa or Kentucky. I went on a carnival cruise. Everyone was there from like Iowa or whatever, but anyways, I told her how much I paid in rent and they were like pearls and they're like you could get a six-bedroom lake within house staff.
Speaker 2:But it's so interesting to me, just the difference in location. I know it's the old cliche in retail, but you know it's a real estate, but it's location, location, location. And for me, I want a view, I want to be like it's a good weather, I want to be sitting with culture and all those things. I'm willing to pay for that, right, and that's why my rent is what it is. If I wanted to go live in Cleveland, I could have a six-bedroom house and be 45 minutes from the nearest Walmart, right, or five, whatever, right, but that's just oh.
Speaker 2:I also I saw on Twitter someone was talking about St Louis and they were showing this picture of this beautiful loft building which I presume is in downtown St Louis, and they were like it was like 160K, something along those lines, and they were like, wow, this is a great deal. And I literally looked up this is my first thing. I went to Google and I typed in cities with the highest murder rate and St Louis was like number two and I was just like there's always a reason for that, yeah, correct. Like listen, I know you're the data person, but that's just something that you can just see. It's like this beautiful unit to 160K.
Speaker 1:Why is that? Because the supply and demand once again back to that demand there. That's clearly what demand will support in that market. That's what that means.
Speaker 2:And I have a lot of conversations like this. My friend Kevin, as Miga, we have both the Yimbis in downtown Miami and we have conversations with people who are always like that. They're like oh, if you want cheap housing, move to I don't know, albuquerque or Alabama or something. I don't want to do that.
Speaker 1:Well, it does, yeah, and to that point it doesn't have to be cheap. But there is something called price attainability and we didn't have a major squeeze in supply here, so it's never going to be cheap like Cleveland, but we can come off the highs. At one point we had some like 40% of people being what's called rent burdens spending more than sorry. 44%, 30% gross income on rent. We were the worst ratios for that in the country and people keep coming. So all this is happy news. They will come and they are coming, yeah.
Speaker 2:And it's interesting to me because a lot of people I follow on real estate Twitter are noticing this and it's not like the apocalypse Like they knew. Even the people who built it and Jude spent a million dollars on it they knew that it wouldn't go up. Rent wouldn't go up always.
Speaker 1:No, we can't. Yeah. Yeah, obviously right.
Speaker 2:So 2021, 2022 were anomalies. Right Now we're normalizing to a new level of normal.
Speaker 1:Correct. Correct. What I tell people is that those two years that were the spikes, they were the post-catechismic event years.
Speaker 1:Ok, and they were by definition a surge, and that does not last forever and, like you, just said, it's going to normalize around a new reality which is emerging and it's not done. This New reality is writing itself, as we keep saying, because these things our feeder of jurisdictions. I promise you, and I don't wish anyone ill, I really, really don't, and I grew up in New York City and I love New York City, so I don't wish anyone ill. But the pattern is so clear because people's hurt, people hurt. They move in cycles. Human nature is a certain way and we've seen these scripts play out before is what I'm saying, and so it's highly likely they'll continue to play out as they are. As they lose taxpayers, they will blame something for the shortfalls. They'll blame whatever. They'll double down on wealth taxes that will deliver 10% of what they sold to taxpayers and nothing bad will happen to them. They will stay in office. There's no clawback for anything to affect them.
Speaker 1:And they'll just keep doubling down and we're going to keep getting taxpayers. And who is it? It's what we've been saying. It's economic shift in focus. Was it Ken Griffin who was saying that and thinks that Miami is going to become the new capital of the world? The mental world. I know Amazon's looking for office space.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's amazing. I forgot about that.
Speaker 1:Yes, that was in the news this week while he was cruising.
Speaker 2:It's like that's so great because remember we had that whole dog and pony show with HQ2 or whatever they were calling it. And these were literally sending their firstborns to wish you a lot. And then it just devolved into Drala and then Long Island City.
Speaker 1:You were a lost one. They had a.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they tried, and then it went to Arlington and Crystal City outside DC and now that is suspended Right. Like they stopped building it and Miami gets it for free.
Speaker 1:And then it's moving to Miami also.
Speaker 2:And we don't have to pay a single dollar in incentives or whatever, because people want to be here. Yeah, I just think it's so funny. They've got all that whole drama. Miami ends up paying it for free. I think it's wonderful I think it's wonderful, I know it's great. It's so. Miami too it is. Yeah, I think I know it's wonderful, but I think Bezos being here is going to be a good thing for the city, for the arts and culture Super good, super good.
Speaker 2:Because billionaires don't just, they want their name out there, they want to.
Speaker 1:They want to be philanthropists.
Speaker 2:Yes, they do.
Speaker 1:That's what money buys you yeah.
Speaker 2:And even if they don't get like a building or a library, they want to do something, Even under the radar. Correct? Because I mean, Bezos doesn't have, as far as I know, he's not like saying this park what they call Jeff Bezos Park, he's like I'm like sponsors, Like yeah.
Speaker 1:Under the radar thing, exactly, and Ken Griffin is always involved with the municipalities and the chimneys too. He heavily donates.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Like they didn't. He didn't require the underlying to be called Kent Griffin Park.
Speaker 1:Right, exactly.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:I really think Elon's going to have to move here, like I feel this, I've been saying it I think Elon needs to move here at least part of the time, and then when we come to Jiu Jitsu, that's my plan everyone.
Speaker 2:You're going to be like. You're going to be the wife number like six or seven, it's like it's surreal polygamy plan.
Speaker 1:What does he have? 12 official kids, probably more, but I'm not hating, god bless. You're lifting adults.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you're going to be like wife number six or seven.
Speaker 1:I'm not joining the harem.
Speaker 2:I'm not a harem kind of girl, oh boy In other news.
Speaker 1:They could join my harem, no kidding.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's a whole other podcast. I feel like we need two versions podcast like the girl state one and then like a spicier one, Like our conversation we have on like what's happening Instagram like our voice.
Speaker 1:I'm not sure we can't do that.
Speaker 2:We're both canceled.
Speaker 1:Although Elon Twitter doesn't cancel anymore. I know it's true, I kind of love. That so just see his interview, actually about the truth and being like the the free. Who was it? I believe Elon. It was a two days ago he had an interview with the think of your time's reporter.
Speaker 2:He told to have you.
Speaker 1:Yeah, he said. He said F the advertisers, yeah, and he was like, I don't care, the earth will know, the people will know. It was fantastic.
Speaker 2:That that is literally the definition of F you money. Yeah, literally. He's like I don't care, I don't care, but he never did.
Speaker 1:That's why he was crazy. He took his first hundred million and invested it like 100% to SpaceX. Yeah, and he could have gone bust, he didn't care. Yeah, he's always been just like, whatever, let's do it. It's kind of a very stoic principle because if you, if you think of time and any meaningful way of time frames, a second is the same as 100 years, and so for any concept of time. We're dead far longer than we're alive.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's inevitable.
Speaker 1:So as long as you're here on earth. This is great quote from I think it was a reliant source like assume you're already dead and live life accordingly.
Speaker 2:Well, I think it also goes. There's a quote by who is the Emily Dickinson, and she said that once you've destroyed your reputation, you can live quite freely.
Speaker 1:Yes, and how liberating is that? Because really, who cares?
Speaker 2:This is total side note, but I mean I know this from fact, I think quite a short reputation, but I basically gave up on a previous life that I had.
Speaker 1:I've done it similar. And just sort of everything that I built.
Speaker 2:It was just a wash that was over, and then I was that rock bottom, but close enough, and so at that point I just didn't care. I don't care what people think of me.
Speaker 1:That's very liberating and it's super, it's super deliberating, yep.
Speaker 2:I don't have Elon money, but still it's whatever.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you're living your life that you're making for yourself now.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Exactly. You know all those things like people reset life. It's not like those things were from nothing, because you've learned and acquired knowledge from all those experiences, so you don't start from. Maybe there's a reset in terms of material possession that is certain time, but the mental that one gathers and everything else, that's not a wash, that's all still there and you take those things with you in the next part.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's great. Back a little bit back to real estate. This is interesting. This is a condo in downtown San Francisco. They bought it in 2021 for 655k and they just live for 399. And this is not in it. This is Mission Bay. Wow, so that's like south.
Speaker 2:I don't know, where it's not quite in, like Soma, it's more south. I know that address because I used to take the Cal train. It's like right there, that's quite the price drop. Yeah, that's insane, and but they bought it for twice the price and they're selling it for less.
Speaker 1:Trying to be in the upper dip before transaction class taxes, everything else.
Speaker 2:Yeah, wow, it's wild. And I just saw on the flip side of this that 830 Brickle is now fully leased.
Speaker 1:That's amazing yeah 830.
Speaker 2:Brickle guys is the new off-stores being built right in front of SLS Lux.
Speaker 1:That's amazing, but yeah, it's fully leased.
Speaker 2:And that's kind of like rooftop restaurant and all kinds of fun things. It's all filling in, yeah, any news or interesting projects that you no, I just understood the topic of things leasing or selling out.
Speaker 1:I've been putting together some information on sales of pre-construction projects, which are the short-term condo of Tel Variety, and the number of them that have sold out very quickly is astounding.
Speaker 2:Yeah, wow, speaking of the FAA, approved CASA tourist building. I guess To be a super tall. It wasn't super tall originally.
Speaker 1:What is the super hall? I still have the number. It's, it's 1049. Amazing.
Speaker 2:Yeah, speaking of that, that is the limit of buildings in Miami that you can build to, and unless we decide to relocate MIA somewhere else, all right, but you know it's a fun fact, they almost took the limit in downtown Miami to like 500 feet Because there was some FAA rule that they were going to change and they would have made downtown Miami like 500 feet.
Speaker 1:Crazy. Oh, it just didn't work. But.
Speaker 2:Key Manja Different world. Yeah, different world. What else is happening? Oh, melos, or your reserve? It says that multiple high-profile soccer players have bought there.
Speaker 1:I saw that, yes, and there was one I believe no, it was a basketball player that just bought it at the villa.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's the same place, okay.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but there we've done, talked about this before and created those, but there is so much happening in Edgewater and because Edgewater is one place that has some of the remaining empty lots, developers can just sort of start whenever they feel like it. Exactly, there's not like they have to go through like demolishing and all that, exactly, yeah, also, speaking of good things, they got a full demolish, full demolishment. I'm not saying it worked.
Speaker 1:Full demolition, demolition, demolition.
Speaker 2:Guys, I'm still on vacation. My brain is still like Float in the crib, here they have float in the crib here somewhere. They got a full demolition permit for it, so that will be actually knocked down. It's one of the most plated spots in downtown. Like I'm so excited for that.
Speaker 1:Progress, progress, yes, what else is happening?
Speaker 2:Any other news projects that you like, I mean?
Speaker 1:stuff is just. I was thinking the other day, but stuff is finally being built in North Bay Village. It's just kind of exciting. There's a whole lot going on right there. Actually there's one under construction which is kind of a luxury project. There's a few sites that are talks to you and that was kind of also a holdout. Nothing was built there for a long time. Now that's in Virginia also Nice.
Speaker 2:I read today that they're going to do a continuum flavored project there Branded. Okay, they continue on South Beach. Yeah, yeah, they're doing a continuum North Bay Village. Okay, I love it because North Bay Village is a very interesting place.
Speaker 1:It is.
Speaker 2:You know, it didn't exist until like the 60s or 70s.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Like they dug up the causeway and they used that to make the islands that were there. But yeah, it didn't exist until very recently and it's always been one of the most corrupt, like Zid, Miami Dade.
Speaker 1:I know they have a lot of interesting internal politics there. Extremely they have mutinies basically.
Speaker 2:I know, yeah, I know. And wasn't there one where the mayor did like blackmail someone else because, like there was like a fence or something?
Speaker 1:I don't know the details, but I heard something like that.
Speaker 2:There was like a fence and like she, I don't know.
Speaker 1:Yeah, since it was like high school politics, yeah, in this tiny little jurisdiction.
Speaker 2:Well, the thing about interesting about North Bay Village is that it's mostly owned by WSBN. Really, yeah, some of them, like they have their main station there Okay. And they own like the huge chunk of it. And if you look at politics, it recently got rezoned to be 600 feet heights.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:It was like 10 stories before.
Speaker 1:Yes. So now it's like Now we're seeing action now.
Speaker 2:Now it's like a crazy gold rush because everyone's trying to get in there and build the. It's going to be hilarious. It's going to be like a mini brickel in, like an island that's like this big.
Speaker 1:And they have nice views.
Speaker 2:Yes, and they'll permit nice views. And I think related to just brought. They bought a plot there, Okay, Because there's so many of those old 1960s like three story multi-families there Tons. And so those people are getting a, getting a payout.
Speaker 1:It's good real estate, I know.
Speaker 2:I sometimes wish that I had money to invest like that, because that's what I would be doing. Buying this little yeah, yeah, I'd be buying them all, exactly yeah.
Speaker 1:Anything else? What else, what else.
Speaker 2:So we had Jeff Bezos, we had Amazon, ken Grifchen, ken Grifchen.
Speaker 1:Tax receipts coming in low on our future jurisdictions.
Speaker 2:It's great, I'm trying to think. I think I'm excited for the new year because I think we're going to see a lot of projects that have been long gestating Start to pop off Yep. Because developers always sort of wait until that new year rolls over to like start. Yep, I mean, it's December, so it's the slow it's a slow time like. But I think what you'll see? You'll see a lot of under the radar land sales happen and then you'll see the product is going to announced in March or April, it's good stuff.
Speaker 1:That's super good stuff and our markets overall are. We just haven't got November numbers and it's looking pretty solid. Nothing drastic, okay. The median pricing is holding up across.
Speaker 2:We need to talk about your new venture. The ask in the show.
Speaker 1:Oh, yes, yes, yes yes.
Speaker 2:So why don't you tell us about it? Yeah, the first episode.
Speaker 1:The second one's out now too. It's every month. But yes, that's how we spoke. It was. It's once a month. Actually, I announced this to the realtor community when I spoke at the rock the market Miami. There was a big one at the hard rock hotel a few months ago. That was like 1500 people. That was something a lot through.
Speaker 1:It was like whoa and there was such a success that we had a second one just for Miami not just not South Florida at the Biltmore and we talked about it there. So I don't sit there. And so basically it's because our story keeps diverging from that the national narrative, and then use gets it wrong, and it's important to not just look at the market as a whole, because we have certain segments Transacting somewhere not, and so for anyone who's investing or real estate professional, you need to know where the ashes, yeah, and the market is not a monolith and so it's important to subdivide that. So, basically, every month, I think, a granular look at the market. There's like a PDF, quarterly, the quarter there's three, but a regular month there's one, and it looks into each segment of the market and since I know people don't really like to read, I also have a video where I talk about it and go along, go along each slide. It's great, it's meant to help people like own the Miami story, which is different than the national media.
Speaker 2:Do people send because it's afghan, to the send you questions actually yeah, so I'm gonna start recording those two.
Speaker 1:Correct, you get some blue. I like those questions because good questions make you think of things you may not have otherwise considered.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you know we need to question that you like to share, like any of the fun ones the top of my head.
Speaker 1:We know I mean the ones that are tricky to address or the ones about insurance rates going up because they have yeah.
Speaker 1:And that's just a fact. But that's a question of balance in terms of supply, demand, all these factors that that come in. Yeah, interesting point is that our single family home market has all segments above 500,000. We're up year over year for transaction volume. Condo market no, okay, and that might be also one thesis that I keep putting forward is that the single family home market in terms of capturing land value with it box in an urban core, yeah, it's a very real thing, whereas we know for the condo market you could build more and go vertical. Yes, I think that the single family homes are kind of like they have built in scarcity, like you're buying into the Miami thesis in a way more powerful way than you are with condos. Just just is you can't, you can't build more vertical. I think we're starting to see that difference reflected in the numbers.
Speaker 2:I love it.
Speaker 1:So you're talking like cooking a grove and crow bables and yeah, the islands between Miami Beach and Palmadiscus, all of them, any, any single family piece of land that's within 40 minutes. It will call the urban core. Okay, it's interesting. And all at all segments it's important to know that all segments, in terms of supply and demand, active listings versus transaction volume, even given the current transaction volume drops in some condo segments especially, yeah, the balance is tighter than preco. It is supplied demand balance Okay, across the entire market. So we're we're stable in terms of the residential markets going into the next year. It's leveling off, runs new normals, it's all kind of finding its way, but it's very there. There's real strength, kind of buffing up the market.
Speaker 2:That's it's finding its way one follow-up is news, and what talk about is that the Downtown tri rail link is supposed to start running by the end of the year.
Speaker 1:Oh, it's exciting.
Speaker 2:It is, and this is something that is I've been excited about for a very long time. Listen, I love Brightline. Brightline is fabulous. Brightline is like a premium dessert. No, nothing you can do every day, right?
Speaker 2:Tri-rail is like $5 or $7, yeah, and so the one of the interesting facts about tri-rail is that it was originally designed to be temporary. Well, they widened at 95 in the 90s. Okay, like they just like oh, we're gonna have this Road out of order for a while. We need to take you all. So they started tri-rail, yeah, popular, and they kept it.
Speaker 2:But, as most of you know, tri-rail like currently ends in Hialeah or the airport Mm-hmm, and you can take metro rail to downtown. It's not very convenient. It's like you got time, they're right, it's kind of a mess. However, brightline, one of the one of the things they were required to do when they got all their approvals is they had to create a way for Tri-rail to get downtown, the population centers. It has been a seven year and I listen, I love Brightline, but making it the most speedy process and my, would they try wheels? Really a competition. Anyway, you slice of Tri-rail is the competition. So there are trials, not for profit, I'm not so profit government and Barley is very much for profit, right so there's some drama there, but they can't. They can't drag their feet forever. So now they have all the government approvals and everything, so Tri-rail should be running to downtown Miami Central by the end of the year. Look at that, we're bullet transit, yeah, and that that way huge, because you can then go from wet from downtown Miami to West Palm Beach for like $12.
Speaker 1:That's it. Wow, that's fantastic.
Speaker 2:It is slower than Brightline, much cheaper, but much cheaper. And you, just you know it's, you know it'll allow the working class correct to have a direct connection from downtown to downtown.
Speaker 1:That's very good.
Speaker 2:So I am very and it's also it's I think it's interesting. Miami Central is one of my favorite Developments by far because it is the most transportation connected thing Project, probably in all of Florida and maybe even the south. Because, listen, you have, you have Metro mover, you have Metro rail, you have Brightline Tri-rail and the buses Mm-hmm all there in like one area. That's. That's a lot of options in one spot and they all interconnected and you can go other places with them. So, and they're all different levels of service too. Brightlands Parianum Tri-Rail is regular, metro Rail is for commuters and Miami-Dade Metro Uber takes you on downtown. So, like you have all the loops and they all connect right there, it's fantastic.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and I'm a transportation nurse.
Speaker 1:I'm a size for no transit. Yeah, I remember that stat that you had found in that study. I think it was by JP Morgan, that was really. It was a New York focus, but it showed data from other cities. Yeah, and it showed that our public transport changed like 100% versus pre-code.
Speaker 2:I think it was above 100% Correct yeah, homeusing.
Speaker 1:Is that hot? Meanwhile, where's that Second Avenue subway in New York?
Speaker 2:Yeah, just saying Well, you know, we have our own problems. Of course you do they. Just there was a study or a story out yesterday that the BRT they're building down south is like it'll take like four minutes off of like a 70 minute trip.
Speaker 1:It's like it's nothing, Right? So?
Speaker 2:it's not, you know. I say this to everyone who will listen. Miami has its share of problems, of course, for sure, like any city does. But the vast majority of our problems are everyone fixable and secondly, they're just not as dramatic or terrible as other cities. No, just look up the facts on that.
Speaker 1:Also, weather makes things more dramatic. There's something to be said for any type of municipal dysfunction, but when you're dealing with it and you have sleet, ice and all of those things, it's quite a different place. Municipal dysfunction under palm trees and sunlight. It's a far different experience.
Speaker 2:Oh, that was me on the cruise last week and like everyone, they were in some like Ohio or Ohio or whatever. They were all from just those places, right, and they were all like talking about the sleet and stuff, like oh, go and deck the paradise.
Speaker 1:You all like Ciao, ciao. Even transit they go. The subway's not coming. This is not coming. Whatever problem, there's a transportation when it's cold and sleeting. And like it's horrible, like you actually suffer.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean like we have rain here, okay.
Speaker 1:Like you get wet, it's not actually cold.
Speaker 2:Yeah, trust me, I've taken transit in the middle of like a mini tropical storm and I'm soaked to the bone, but it's not like I'm going to die of like hypothermia or something.
Speaker 1:You're going to get frostbite. Yeah, not going to frostbite, you're fine really. Yeah, exactly, it makes it all bearable.
Speaker 2:And you know, that is what my sort of thesis is, for Miami is like. We have our problems when you stack up what makes Miami great and the benefits it just vastly outweighs.
Speaker 1:I agree and we keep improving. Honestly, I think we do yeah.
Speaker 2:And I think we're getting to it Like we had our elections and we hired. We voted in two progressive new commissioners. They're not a part of the the dynasty in any which way. Fantastic, our first openly gay one as well and I think we're getting to a point where, like, there's going to be some change.
Speaker 1:I agree, it changes the flavor of the city.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and our favorite crazy commissioner is the eternal limited at some point, right, so he won't be around forever, maybe. Maybe he'll try and run for mayor again, who knows.
Speaker 1:But I'm optimistic yeah.
Speaker 2:I'm optimistic and I think now, I think, once the presidential elections are over this circus next year, I think, I think things will improve.
Speaker 1:I think so. Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2:I mean it, just I don't know. I honestly don't know where we're going. Like there's, I don't know.
Speaker 1:I mean, I think the country's just going to keep diverging. Yeah, I haven't seen this for a while, I believe. I think, politically, all you have to do is look at electoral maps and see how people vote, and just time lapse them.
Speaker 1:People have done this, like going back to just Reagan and Canary, and it went from. Obviously there's certain areas that go a certain way, but it was kind of like mixed dispersed across the country Over these 40 years has just got and the country's become totally polarized and now people are moving in accordance with the police system. I think that just the realities will continue.
Speaker 2:I think that I think that is something interesting to talk about, because the country has polarized in the vast majority, except, really, here.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:I mean, we have our own brand of crazy politics.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:But it's like Miami really isn't that polarized.
Speaker 1:We've managed to mingle it all somehow.
Speaker 2:Yes, and there there are mass differences in the haves and the have-nots and different status. But how do I explain this?
Speaker 1:I'll go this way, we take a stance that's a little bit similar to Texas in some ways, but minus the political, the religious zealotry.
Speaker 2:Exactly that's what we do Exactly.
Speaker 1:And I think that's actually attracting a certain type of person who is not comfortable with religious zealotry. Yeah, like geography being equal, I moved to the place after religious zealotry. Yeah, but I think we managed to occupy that middle ground. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And I still think there is a little bit of religiousness, a little bit Sure, but it's not as like in your face, not part of the fabric. Yeah, it's definitely part of the fabric.
Speaker 1:It's part of the fabric over there.
Speaker 2:No-transcript. It's like our main culture here is Hispanic and Latin Correct and most of the people in those cultures are Catholic Correct and they sort of do their thing Right, but it's not intertwined with politics.
Speaker 1:It's not the same flavor, it's not evangelical. It's not evangelical, it's completely correct.
Speaker 2:I trust me. I grew up in an evangelical household and so I know that flavor like the back of my hand.
Speaker 1:It's not that.
Speaker 2:And Miami is about as far away from that as you can get Correct, and it's not evangelical Literally by its name. It's like you are trying to make someone else the same as you by evangelizing them.
Speaker 1:Right the Latinos don't do that.
Speaker 2:No, they don't, which is fantastic. Yeah, they're like. They may be very religious, but they don't care what you are.
Speaker 1:They're not militant about it at all. Exactly, it's more pleasant. So we've managed to somehow take an almost libertarian stance on some things.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So it's a good mix that we have, yeah.
Speaker 2:Because, like Texas, is like libertarian but with, like, the religious flavor.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:I like it. I think it works. I do too, and you know, like I said, I wouldn't be here, right, if I didn't like it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, sam, yeah, I think that will also keep building that itself, because we're going to attract people who like that.
Speaker 2:And I think you know. Going back to Jeff Bezos living here, I think he's going to start his own sort of flywheel slash snowball of it.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:Because you know there's people in his circle that want to be close to him 100% and it's like the emperor in the court.
Speaker 1:Yes, they're going to follow the court travels with the emperor.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they say and I'm looking for 50,000 plus square feet of office, that is a. That could be a row of building, absolutely, I mean, or it could be a couple floors, but that's probably. I'll make a prediction here. I think it's my prediction, I think, and without it, they're going to do two things they're going to buy a large project that is currently not class A and not very nice and totally redo it, probably somewhere in downtown or this generalized area, I don't know. Or they're going to go like crazy and like do like on Amazon, like signature thing, like those. I think those are two options.
Speaker 2:Those two options like rehabbing and current building to be nice or doing a full on signature.
Speaker 1:Interesting, yeah, and then they're meant by looking for office based to see what's available they can do.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think they might start out with that older one and rehab it and then Maybe grow more, get more. But I guarantee you, when they land in a neighborhood it's going to so exciting. I love it and I don't think, I don't think it'll be windwood.
Speaker 1:Okay. Those are Ryan's predictions everyone.
Speaker 2:I like windwood, but windwood is not, besides, like the new office. That's wind 45, I think wind 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45. That's that one. It's just, it's just not a very corporatey type space. Yeah, it's more for startups and you know, I know in that wind 45, they have like Sony and Spotify and stuff, music scene stuff and Me like the creative stuff, ultra stuff. I don't. I don't see a pure tech company making a play Windwood.
Speaker 1:Okay, that's the prediction. We'll see. That's exciting. We're going to play this back.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we'll see what happens. I, I, or maybe we'll get like a battle with like hand griffin and Jeff Bezos. Oh, it's fun. I'd be so much fun.
Speaker 1:I'm going to keep saying that you learn is going to move to Miami and we're going to do Jiu Jitsu.
Speaker 2:I think he'd quite just do with Mark. I'd kill him. Your Facebook and Instagram is blocked, which is banned tomorrow. Oh boy, all right. Well, guys, thank you very much for listening. This is always fun and is this lineup with the holidays. We'll be able to do one in between.
Speaker 1:There's two weeks, is that?
Speaker 2:Yeah, we will Okay yeah.
Speaker 1:It's the 15th.
Speaker 2:Okay. And then the next one will be yeah, exciting, it'll be fun, okay. So thank you again for listening and we make this for you guys. So you have any questions or you want us to share something, like my friend Connor with what?
Speaker 1:was it called?
Speaker 2:again Miami crane tracker.
Speaker 1:Something like that. Yes, sorry, sorry, it's in there.
Speaker 2:Yeah, miami crane tracker, it's pretty cool. Check it out and if you have any questions or thoughts, put it in the comments. Thank you very much and thank you again.
