Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
The Future Unfolds in Miami: Urban Tales and Economic Predictions
Miami's metamorphosis is not just a story – it's our story. From the sun-kissed beaches to the bustling streets of downtown, the city's allure as a cradle for dreams and destinies unfolded before our very eyes, paralleling our own journey of discovery and growth. Join us in our year-end episode as we reflect on the city's economic vigor, with my predictions hitting the mark and the political dynamics that are drawing in both talent and wealth. Through personal anecdotes and the wisdom, We've gleaned from press interviews, we'll unravel how Miami sets itself apart as a canvas for individual success, challenging the traditional power centers.
The economic landscape is shifting, and we're at the forefront of this seismic change. We examine the rise of the Sunbelt, where states like Florida are poised to challenge the economic hegemony of New York and California, a narrative underscored by innovative construction trends transforming Miami’s skyline. As we discuss projects like Melo's ambitious downtown development plans and the birth of super-tall buildings, we also scrutinize the very fabric of urban life, from micro-units catering to young professionals to the luxury real estate market's evolution, offering a diverse array of living spaces for an ever-evolving populace.
We close the year with a contemplative gaze into the future, from the bustling transit lines of Florida's transportation system to societal shifts that may herald a new era for Miami and beyond. As chickens roam amidst the rising steel frames of downtown Miami, the city encapsulates a portrait of growth and the dichotomy of housing affordability challenges. Our narrative extends to the broader economic canvas, discussing the potential impacts of Universal Basic Income in Canada and the shifting dynamics of traditional retail spaces. As we set our collective sights on the aspirations for the year ahead, Miami stands as a beacon, inviting us to ponder, prepare, and participate in the grand tapestry of change.
Hi everyone, welcome to episode number 12 of Ride and Honor on Miami, and I believe this is the last one of the year. It is. We're filming on December 29th 2023.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I'm going to try and get this one done and edited before the end of the year so we can get it out there.
Speaker 1:How exciting. We got 12 done here on our first year.
Speaker 2:That's crazy, like you know, I was looking back sort of at the quality of it and like seeing how it you know the progression and, like you know what this room started as and you know, all of a sudden it's and it's also cool, because people tell me that they watch the podcast like people that I don't interact with on a daily basis, and that's cool. It's super cool because it's like you know, we're not getting a good Jillian views yet, but the people who matter are watching it.
Speaker 1:I appreciate it.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:I feel like we're adding some value.
Speaker 2:Exactly.
Speaker 1:Our approach to everything and it's progressed quickly, much like the city of Miami has transformed quickly.
Speaker 1:Look at this analogy that we're drawing here. I love it when we started and where we've quickly ascended to. So at the end of the year I tend to do press interviews on outlooks, market forecast for the following year and I did one yesterday with the Mamrie Herald that should be out very soon. And right before I did the interview yesterday, I saw in my social media memories, memories of you know, on this day last year. So it was excerpts from articles that I contributed to last year with my thoughts on where the market would be in 2023. And it was quite nice and refreshing to see that I was correct in what I was saying. In fact, I'm also getting memories from 2021, 2022, 2020 of what I thought, how I thought the market would play out, and those are super cool to see because that was early days and I was correct and what I was correct on. I know I'm documented guys that I keep sharing. What I said on this day in 2021, it's there and honestly, it's not it's not random, I didn't just get lucky being correct but when I look at the market, I identify, I create a thesis of what's driving what we're seeing around us, because just reporting on numbers is very easy. Anyone can say the median price is this, this is this, but that's just a snippet in time. You have to identify as baseline as you can what is driving the things that you're seeing happening around you, because markets, things, everything moves and mementums and cycles, and if you can identify that, then you can predict with confidence.
Speaker 1:And I said, going back to 2020, 2021, and last year, I was saying that the forces that are driving and pushing this wealth and talent towards Miami are still in their early days and have just begun, and that history never goes backwards. And thus I had full confidence in saying that the segments of our market that are outperforming in this postcode reality will continue to do so and that money and talent will keep coming to us. And, in fact, I also said that our feeder jurisdictions, that the politicians there, would double down on losing positions, because that's also an inevitable script that's going to play out. They're going to keep pandering to the growing percentage that's not paying and that taxpayers are going to leave. I said this years ago and it is happening, and it is still early days.
Speaker 1:Boys and girls, you're just saying I was right. So obviously you see that you like, you see the forces that are pushing all this, like the prime driving forces. It's a massive shift in the world away from these 20, what I keep saying is 20th century epicenters. And now, of course, what we have headlines this year from Bloomberg for May 1, saying that there's a shift in economic center of gravity towards the fastest growing southern states that you know. Florida now has more AUM than Connecticut for the first time, florida overtook New York as the third most popular state. All these things and it has just begun this is all going to feed itself. So I'm glad I documented this. Now I'm not just saying I told you, so it's documented.
Speaker 2:I love your like history things you post on Instagram. We're like on this day I said this just all time folks she's like, you're like very, very Sagittarius move as well. I forget about that.
Speaker 1:I look at my memories and it's there and I'm like, oh, I did say that, look at that. But really the crux is identifying the thesis and the numbers are easy after that because the numbers, again, they're not random, they're not occurring in a vacuum. There's a reason that they are what they are and if you can identify that reason, then you can predict the future. Or I did give a talk on this, like predicting the future, because human prosperity, the human spirit, creation, ingenuity, it's a real force and it always flows somewhere and it flows along the path of least resistance and we've become that path. I like it.
Speaker 2:I love that path of least resistance because that implies easy, but it also implies good, and in Miami you can have good life Absolutely.
Speaker 1:And you can create, you can have good quality of life, all those things. We have this great trifecta of that. We have the ability to create, we have the quality of life, and then we have, well, actually an international city.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, that's one of the reasons that I moved here, because in 2017, when I moved here, I didn't have a lot of reason as to why I wanted to be here. I wanted to be here but I felt like I could create my own destiny. Without sounding hyperbolic, and I didn't feel, I mean, listen, I lived in power centers in San Francisco and LA and all of those places, and I never felt like I could create my own destiny and that and that's because you know those places, those places that people go to create their destiny Silicon Valley, san Francisco but for me, I just never felt like I got to accomplish it and I tried and it just didn't. It never worked. But then, when I got here, even though back then Miami didn't have a tech scene that I was a part of, I still felt like I can create here and I think that's really what may want to be here and stay here, yep.
Speaker 1:And I think that's a feeling that is shared by many, which is why people are coming here, want to create. And what does creation mean? It means excelling in whatever your talent is yeah, sports, business, art, whatever it is. And we're getting those people, yeah, and it's still, by the way, like what I was saying three years ago about it being early days it is still early days. This is a five to 10 year shift. Most people are just not good at perceiving momentum as it builds, because the human mind tends to think the present is sacrosanct. They'll say how it was? No, no, no. This is a period of rapid change and I'm glad that mainstream press is now recognizing.
Speaker 2:Well, it's also like that, you know, the frog and the boiled water and the hot pot, sort of analogy. Like I think the world changed during COVID and over the past five years and it was like that sort of slow boil. Covid like sped it up a little bit, it gave a little extra boost, exactly, but it changed pretty rapidly and people were like people are still coming to terms with that, which is why it's still early days, exactly right.
Speaker 1:And then stuff is also still shaping up around hybrid work patterns, which are still new, all of that. The dust hasn't fully settled there yet. What's happening with office around the country? All of that, it's still in flux, yeah, and two years ago.
Speaker 2:no one knew it Well and, speaking of office, I always send you all the stories. They see them and it's still happening in other cities. Is that landlords and lenders and people that hold the debt are either giving office buildings back they are, they're selling them at ridiculously low rates or they're just walking away, correct?
Speaker 1:Correct, which is, and we're building office.
Speaker 2:I know we have like four of them under construction. Just incredible.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's incredible.
Speaker 2:And listen, I know firsthand how difficult it is to do office in this day and age. I basically run a co-working space, but even us, as a co-working space, we're far better off than co-working spaces in other cities. Exactly right.
Speaker 1:And again, it's all the same reason that we're seeing parts of our residential markets outperform versus pre-co-owned reality. It's the same thing If people who are coming here looking to establish themselves here and that is not going to stop, in fact, what we just. You just sent me an article that was all over the years that New York had the largest population decline of any state. This past year Actually, the census data was July through July, I believe that New York City has lost 5% of its population since the beginning of COVID, and those are taxpayers, the people paying in are the ones leaving, and that that's one thing, mathematically, that I don't feel. I feel is underappreciated, because in all these high texture as dictions the top 1% account for. I wrote on Twitter one time over 40%, because I didn't know the exact numbers, I was lowballing, but actually it's higher than 40. But I want them to say I'm making up numbers, so I think it's actually over 45, but safely over 40. And you lose just 10% of these people.
Speaker 1:You've accelerated the decimation of your tax base and we've seen all these recent articles lately about budget shortfalls being larger than anticipated in California and New York. All these things, and what is that going to do? It's going to further feed this cycle Because their politicians, who are there, are beholden to those not paying in, and they're well. California now has a law coming into effect in 2024, that your electric bill will be based on your income, not your usage. Have you seen that? It's fascinating? They have income brackets upon which they will levy your electric charges.
Speaker 2:Is it like the kilowatts per hour is getting based on the income?
Speaker 1:No, it's like they had a chart of income brackets and, based upon where you fell within those parameters, you paid a certain amount of electricity bills every month. It was very strange and they voted it in, I believe, last year, and it can go into effect like June or July of this year, but it won't go into effect right away. They have to figure it out because I'm sure it's very poorly conceived, but the fact that this even happened is amazing, wow.
Speaker 2:Speaking of news stories, the one I sent you just now about basically the Sunbelt, correct? And it's I mean they've been doing these stories for the past two years, but I think the point is finally starting to get home. Is that the Sunbelt may become the biggest economy in the United States?
Speaker 1:Yes, and that's what I mentioned earlier this year. A few months ago I think it was, bloomberg had their headline that that there is a shift in economic center of gravity in the nation and that, for the first time since this has been measured, it was the seven or six, since the seven fastest growing southern states account for more national GDP than the Washington, new York, boston quarter. Yeah, and that shift happened earlier this year and that is something fascinating.
Speaker 2:I think it's going to happen, because up until now it's basically been New York versus California and then the rest of the state sort of thrown in there. I think my prediction is that over the next whatever amount of years it's going to be, the Sunbelt versus California Agreed, it's the.
Speaker 1:New.
Speaker 2:York plus the Northeast. Correct, correct, but I think it's the Sunbelt now versus California Correct.
Speaker 1:California is further along its trajectory down hill slope than New York, about five to 10 years. Wow, in my opinion. But no-transcript. They're on the same path, just California's further along.
Speaker 2:Yes, what I'm saying is I think California will always be a powerhouse of some sort.
Speaker 1:Oh correct, it's a huge state.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So what I'm saying is I think up until now it's been New York on the east, in California, yep, but now it's going to be the Sun Now it's the Sun Belt. We're going to sub-plan. California specifically, I think we'll compete. I think maybe someday if they really go off the rails, right, but I think it's more about bringing the it's setting the eastern economic power south. I agree, I think that's what I look back.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I agree, and it's not just Miami, it's Houston and Austin and New Orleans and Atlanta. And I think there's something interesting there because the south is always never Well in modern days it's not really been taken seriously. And it's interesting to me because there are so many large companies based in the south in general, from Georgia and North Carolina and South Carolina, but because they weren't really known for startups, it's sort of the narrative was sort of off. It's corporate in person.
Speaker 2:Yes, exactly so. But now I think that California is sort of going off the rails. You're going to combine the startup-y stuff from California with the corporate stuff from the southern east.
Speaker 1:Sense Southeast, I agree. Yeah Well, that's the flow of ingenuity and creation. It's going to go somewhere. Yeah, yeah, I agree.
Speaker 2:So I think that you're just taking it from New York and just and on the same note, new York will always be a powerhouse, yes, but I think and I've been saying this for three years is that it was time Like 100% Like. New York and California cannot be the only two things that matter.
Speaker 1:Yeah, they can't. They were for a period of time, but that time has changed. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:And I think those two states are like they're. They haven't realized it yet.
Speaker 1:It's like the frog, they have not realized it yet. It's exactly right.
Speaker 2:It's the frog boiling in the pot. That's exactly right, Like they're starting to understand it like that and they're like haters.
Speaker 1:They have the Florida man memes and look at these hillbillies. Who wants to go there?
Speaker 2:Speaking of that, that is something interesting because I say this basically every time it's winter they do the Florida man memes. Their media makes fun of us, and whatever the politics which are crazy, but whatever they all are, and then they're all here in December, January and February.
Speaker 1:Wearing short sleeves outdoors.
Speaker 2:Yes, I mean I just you were in traffic, I just brought my, I'd take my car on the block and I was in traffic for like 30 minutes. Like Biscayne and 395 are just like gridlock.
Speaker 1:It's 3PM. I was in gridlock getting here, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:And the people who are making that gridlock are not from. They're not locals. Yeah, so it's like they can whine and complain all they want about Florida, but they end up here in January, december and February.
Speaker 1:Haters are fans too.
Speaker 2:You need that t-shirt.
Speaker 1:I know.
Speaker 2:Haters are fans too.
Speaker 1:With the hashtag Long Miami in the back. Oh yes, we'll tell Omar. Omar wants to make merch. Hi Omar, that's great.
Speaker 2:I love it. We need to get that done for sure 2024, we're going to have a merch. You would probably get Keith Robrod to sponsor it. He would love that. Yeah, or Dillion.
Speaker 1:Shout out guys yeah.
Speaker 2:They would probably buy it. Okay, so let's chat about 2023.
Speaker 1:When we're coming on the Southern Belt thing. It was 85% of the nation's population growth occurred in the South and that that's also going to have long-term implications, potentially for congressional seats, all sorts of things. Back to that point, yes.
Speaker 2:I think it's interesting because population is sort of governed more or less by the laws of physics. Energy cannot be destroyed or created, it just moves around Same thing. So it's like it's not that these people are just new, like they're not created. They came from somewhere.
Speaker 1:Exactly, it's a flux.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's a flux.
Speaker 1:And then the path of least resistance. Exactly that's what I see happening.
Speaker 2:It's exactly like. It's like energy. The water's just flowing somewhere, Got to flow somewhere.
Speaker 1:I'm the chair of the mayor of Chicago, so part of my thesis again is that these politicians and feeder jurisdictions are going to double down on policies that will accelerate the demise of their jurisdictions because they are not aligned with the long-term prosperity of said jurisdictions. Anyway, the genius mayor of Chicago. He was in the news earlier this week saying that to combat increases in violence he wants to spend $500,000 on a committee to discuss reparations.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I don't.
Speaker 1:It's just, unfortunately, this is all part of that Venezuela script that's going to further kick out prosperity from those jurisdictions.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think it's also hard because there are problems that need to be solved in the structural fabric of our country. But it's like those are problems you fix when the cities aren't crumbling.
Speaker 1:Correct.
Speaker 2:Or whatever declining yes, you spend energy on those when your city isn't literally declining or crumbling Quite literally. Exactly right. You can and should fix those problems or the past problems, but it's not the time when.
Speaker 1:And when it's obvious that even the threat of that, anyone who's questioning leaving that's the further. That's like boiling the frog even more. The high tax jurisdiction, the weather sucks and then they're like and now they want to take my money I'm not even American, potentially and pay reparations Like are you kidding me? It's incredible, but it's like a slow moving car accident. They can't help themselves, anyways.
Speaker 2:So let's chat about 2023. Why don't you tell me a couple of projects that you really liked in 2023?
Speaker 1:Ones that were built in 2023?.
Speaker 2:Started, delivered, proposed.
Speaker 1:What do I like? Oh, wow, tough question. I know he's like there's so much that happened in 2023. Actually, you know what? The Herald kind of asked me this too. What do I like in terms of what's happening in new construction? Because everyone always talks about luxury and obviously luxury gets all sorts of headlines the fanciest thing, the this, the that, blah, blah, blah and that's all great. And we have that Also in Miami.
Speaker 1:In the city of Miami, we're getting a bunch of projects that feature highly amenitized micro units and I'm kind of excited about those because because I, I okay it's difficult to deliver anything for low not for low overall price because of the cost per square foot to deliver is just higher Construction costs, labor costs, all of those things and we have a disappearance of inventory below half a million dollars. Even below a million dollars. It's less than half of what it was pre COVID. Both condos You've just had a million. We're 55 and 54 percent below where we were pre COVID 2019 for single family and condos. That a million little and 500,000 is basically $1,000. We're really gone, and so we're.
Speaker 1:We are attracting young people to come and live and work in our region we know this for getting the highest percentage of millennials earning over 200 grand a year. All this stuff, and so this creation of highly amenitized micro units allows, I think, for young people who are coming here to start off life. It allows them easy solutions, places to live that are prime location, urban core, and I think that's a wonderful thing. My first apartment in New York City was 350 square feet, but it was an 82nd in Central Park West. It was a great location and again all I had was my clothes. I was 20 years old. Who cares? The most important thing was to be where stuff was happening. So I think it's really great that we're building those solutions. There's a bunch in Windwood, there's some in Brickle.
Speaker 2:Speaking of alternative product, one of my favorite trends in 2023 or about, was if you go over to like the my world center Park West neighborhood, there's a bunch of new stuff happening. There are one, two, three, four, five. There's like five towers that are under construction or close to finished and all five of them have minimal or no parking.
Speaker 1:Part of this.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and it's sort of a lot like what you were talking about with the micro units. They're not micro but smaller, and most of them allow short term rentals. They are, as far as I know, it's the Crosby, miami World Center, 600, nativo, whatever they're calling it these days, and 501 first and district 225.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and Don't miss it.
Speaker 2:I'm talking that in that general area.
Speaker 2:So there's five there that don't have any parking or very minimal parking, and that, to me, is fascinating, because in Miami we love our cars and we're not. We have parking minimums, except for when they get to do like the county based zoning with no parking. So for me that's really fascinating that we're getting that point where it's like, okay, we're building units and products that are a little different than what we've built for the past 20 years, exactly, I agree, yeah, and I think the people out there the city is now attracting.
Speaker 2:I think it's tapping into that demand, hopefully, and offering a solution, a place to live and, on that same note, I am actually a fan of them building these highly amenitized buildings built for Airbnb. I might get canceled for it by housing advocates, but I think personally it takes some of the pressure off buildings that aren't built to be Airbnb.
Speaker 1:Exactly.
Speaker 2:Because there are condos and stuff that are for regular people.
Speaker 1:They were never meant to be that way.
Speaker 2:Never meant to be Airbnb and so you can make them Airbnb, but it doesn't really work. There's no management. There's security. Whatever the buildings that are built for it take pressure away from those units, I agree, and the people who are Airbnbing out there units are going to get price pressure on it, so they're going to be like may I can sell and go buy one of those ones in an Airbnb building and then that my current unit can be for someone who's going to do it long term. Okay, so for me that's a win-win.
Speaker 1:It addresses that demand, which is there.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so for me, I love that style of project, so let's do this. The legacy was gonna have that option as well. So there's like six towers in that sort of genre. And if you go on the next Miami and stuff in the comments, they're always like, oh, another Airbnb tower. And I'm like, listen, tourists are never not going to come to Miami ever.
Speaker 1:In fact, our air traffic is higher than it was pre COVID due to surge in domestic.
Speaker 2:actually, yeah, so people are always coming here. We need a place to put them, and not everyone needs or can stay in a hotel, so give them a place to go and then, because if you don't, they'll take up units that should be for longer term. People, exactly so. Agreed, so that's the trend I like.
Speaker 1:I do too, and I'm glad that we're building. Miami is building a whole range of product. There's a lot of different stuff in the works, from multifamily to just standard luxury to micro units. It's great A lot of stuff.
Speaker 2:I will give Miami this we do a pretty good job of building across the spectrum, Yep In like sort of every neighborhood. Basically Every neighborhood in Miami has at least attainable housing to almost ultra luxury.
Speaker 1:Exactly.
Speaker 2:Almost every neighborhood in the urban quarters Yep. And sometimes they're right next to each other, yep. You have players like New York or LA. They build neighborhoods that are sort of like income locked. So it's like not locked, but like they group the incomes altogether. So if you're really wealthy, you go to this neighborhood and you get a condo there. Your neighbors are going to be sort of the same level as you In Miami. I think it's more of a mix, at least from what I see.
Speaker 1:Parts of an at-norm mix because you have newer buildings right next to old ones that are less. But yeah, miami is a genuine mix. I agree across the board.
Speaker 2:That is funny because when I first moved here I wasn't used to that mix before. In the Northeast the neighbors are much older. So they're much more established, and so you have wealthy neighborhoods or good neighborhoods, and then you have, let's just say, lesser or bad neighborhoods, but they're sort of like distance apart. In Miami you'll have a really good neighborhood, like ultra wealthy, and then, across the tracks, you'll have a not so good neighborhood right there.
Speaker 1:This is true, it's true, and the nice stuff will be very neat. Yes, so frontier.
Speaker 2:Well, it's like Edgewater to crack. Edgewater cracks me up because you'll have like a 60 story brand new ultra luxury building and like a single story.
Speaker 1:Yes, little holdout Single family home Still there.
Speaker 2:I'm just like. It's like four inches from the base of the 60 story tower.
Speaker 1:Yep, there's a little house that was a holdover. What's the project in Coral Gables? There's a little house they built around. The guy wouldn't sell.
Speaker 2:And that seems kind of petty to me, like I would sell.
Speaker 1:He's probably some eccentric who is amused with himself of having to make them. It was like his, his moment, his, I'm gonna make them build around my house.
Speaker 2:Oh, speaking of old things, I was walking around during one of the few good days we had here a couple of days ago. You're gonna complain, I know, I know. Sad, sad, like seasonal effective depression disorder, whatever it's called. Anyways, I was walking our Margaret Pace Park that's one of my favorite parks, it's beautiful and they were starting work on demolishing Biscayne 21, where the addition's going, and then they were demolishing that little tiny sliver by city and they were like doing it at the same time and I was just like. I was like I was like this is great, like yeah, cause, like there was there's two old 1960s buildings that are gross, both being demolished to be replaced by fresh new stuff.
Speaker 1:It's exciting.
Speaker 2:And it was like right there, and I could see both like a term ahead this way, look at this one, look at this one, look at that way, and then there's that one.
Speaker 1:Is it a B? Yeah, stuff coming.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so I don't know, I was. I was kind of excited about that. Speaking of edge water, do you want to talk about mellows? Little thing they did.
Speaker 1:Oh yes, there's something in the news recently that density swap. Yes, a thousand extra units can be added. To how many?
Speaker 2:A lot so mellow, if you guys know Miami and Edgewater, the public's in Edgewater on 17th, 17th or 16th, one of them, anyways. So there's a public's there and it's like a two story public's and then across from it is like an old, like drift store and like old it's like a whole city block. Mellow bought the whole city block for like $150 million and to them they're going to do something, I'm sure wow, but by right they could build like 1500 units or something already Whoops, I'm eating the microphone. And.
Speaker 1:And they bought for quite a lot of money. Yeah, they bought, it was quite a bit Quite a bit.
Speaker 2:They bought the development rights from public's because public's, by code, can build a lot of units and they're a lot. But it's just two story public's. So they sold it. Styles sold it to mellow for like a lot of money, a thousand units. So they they're going to be able to put 2500 units on a block, a city block, and knowing mellow they will do they will do it.
Speaker 1:They're highly advertised small units model. Whatever's going to come there exactly.
Speaker 2:So, as many of you guys know, I used to live in downtown fifth and whatever building has this pluses and minuses, but that building is like mellow blueprint because they built it on a very small lot. They built, they built it to the lot lines and they built it like zero setbacks, like no setbacks, like barely any access, like points to it, Just like, and like you really, from the sidewalk to the roof was like a straight line, like straight up, and they put 1100 units on, like so they they're- they're going to build all those units.
Speaker 1:That's why they got that extra thousand. They're like we need to build more.
Speaker 2:They. They're not a developer who buys things and banks them.
Speaker 1:They're going to build that extra density.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they are for sure, and it's going to be. It is going to be a project to behold.
Speaker 1:How interesting.
Speaker 2:I love it and I'm I'm excited about it because that whole area is about to pop off across the street from Publix six I think. The fencing went up last week. I walked by it today and they're starting to bulldoze the whatever some of the lot, so that the crazy thing is that lot has been vacant since this Omni building was built in the 1970s. It's been vacant for forever, so I call it my little nickname for that area is the Biscayne dead zone, from from basically 17th to 20th or 21st. It's just like empty lots for now. But on that note, mellow not only owns the lot that we just talked about, they also own the lot Cady corner to Publix, across the street, and they can also build like 1700 units there. They're going to be busy. They're going to be busy.
Speaker 2:Interesting Mellow is like so they're very much machine. They only really build two projects at once as far as multifamily, they never do more than that Like they wait. They wait until they're almost done with one and then they start the next one and they just finished downtown first and urban 22. So they're gearing up to start. They're probably going to do downtown six, which is right by downtown fifth, and then they're going to start on the project on the east side of the scale. Lot, lot happening. Any other new stories?
Speaker 1:No, I think that 2024 is just going to be a continuation of this. I think that the resume markets are going to stabilize around these new post COVID realities the high end certainly, and oh, I mean the interest rate cuts are being priced in. I don't know how many we're going to get, perhaps two, so that might free up hopefully some inventory at lower price points.
Speaker 2:Speaking of that, I saw I think I tagged doing it this guy was posting about how his New York was having issues and he owns a condo in Miami and, like his land value, his condo value in Miami is just like straight up and someone like I posted, like in the last like month or two, that it has appreciated like double digits in the last couple months.
Speaker 1:Interesting, I mean our county wide median pricing for condos and single families hovering around all time highs in November.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I know I'm never going to get to buy anything, it's okay. It's okay I have ADDs. So, like I would be, I would be bad. I think it'd be a bad homeowner because I get bored and that's like I could just buy something outrageous Like just yeah, but I get bored, I feel like I think I'd want to sell it in like two or three years. So I and then also you have to deal with like the HOA and like all of that. Like I, like you know, I think the HOA in my new building is something like $800 a month.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's probably even bad.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but I mean that's if I had a mortgage.
Speaker 1:I know it would be on top of it. I highly doubt my In probably Texas.
Speaker 2:In probably Texas.
Speaker 1:I highly doubt my landlord makes any money, they had best break even.
Speaker 2:Apparently. So it's like I know. It's like feel like go buy something. I'm just like. I like living in urban centers, I like having a highly amenitized lifestyle, I like walking and I'm fine with not owning it Like I really am, and that's until I'm just fabulously wealthy and can just it's coming this year.
Speaker 1:Yes, we're going to film this episode next year on our rooftop, on our rooftop.
Speaker 2:I'm just like a Italian leather couch.
Speaker 1:Sand by hot boys.
Speaker 2:Exactly With a cocktail. Yeah, not to tease too much, but we are planning some pretty big things in 2020. We can't talk about them quite yet.
Speaker 1:Great, but it's going to be fantastic. It's going to be fantastic.
Speaker 2:We're going to do some beyond this.
Speaker 1:Yes, yes yes, this will be incorporated. This is going to continue. And this will be incorporated, but beyond this. So stay tuned everyone. Second week of January we will let you know.
Speaker 2:The tease that I've been helping Anna pick out her new wardrobe Lots of leather and high heels and no, she's sorry boys, she's not starting an OnlyFans, as far as I know Exactly. So, okay, I want to talk a minute about some trends I see coming in 2024. First one is I think 2024 is going to be the year of the super tall. There's a lot of them about to pop off. The Waldorf Astoria is finishing up its. Its a lot work, or site work, finishing that up. Okon Tower is about to do their foundation poor, which will be one of the largest in the city's history. So you have Okon. You have Waldorf Astoria. You have one, bricklesley Center, which, if they can stop demolishing their buildings in, quickly get your act together, swear. You have that one which is a super tall. You have the Delta and Cabana building. So Miami.
Speaker 1:So they're running leopard print or something.
Speaker 2:I would be terrified to X the lobby and like like a gym wear or something.
Speaker 1:You're going to be. You're going to be evicted. Service entrance.
Speaker 2:Yeah, service entrance. So you have that. What else? What other supertalls are happening? I think those are the three that I know of at least. So you have that. You have three of those. The Aston Martin should finally open.
Speaker 1:Seven years.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:That's pretty colossal.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Seven years.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And they were saying from the beginning we don't need outside financing, we're independently wealthy. What was that family? The Koto family? That's right, and I guess that's not the case. We're. I don't know what happened actually. I actually don't know, but the whole story was like we don't even need financing, we can deliver on time. And I don't know what happened, but it's taken seven years.
Speaker 2:My realtor, kevin. He has a bunch of clients that bought there and like the clients are ready to like murder him.
Speaker 1:I mean it's his fault, poor guy. No, it's not his fault. But like.
Speaker 2:They're just like bro.
Speaker 1:What's the story? Why is it seven years? I don't have any insight.
Speaker 2:They. They've had a lot not money problems. They've had a lot of construction contract related problems. Right, one of them went bankrupt and like there was like a lawsuit back then. There was like lawsuits back and forth and so work was stopped for a while. Covid did a number on it too, right? So, yes, I mean, it's not like it's not frozen, it's still working. It's just crazy it's a long time.
Speaker 1:It's super crazy yeah.
Speaker 2:That lot, when it sold, was actually the most expensive first square for the it's at 1.25 acres, I believe there. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It was sold for some colossal amount. I forgot the exact, but it was a high. It was the highest price. It was that last little parcel there and that yeah, that was originally supposed to be Epic East.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it was going to be like a twin for Epic and it kind of is, if you look at the styling.
Speaker 1:So I keep the car in the lobby.
Speaker 2:I know I, I just want this is terrible, but I won't want Miami to get old enough, so that gets demolished and the thing really cool can go there.
Speaker 1:As you can see, ryan likes to. He loves demolition. He's like you're rid of it, build something new.
Speaker 2:Well, that's the reason I like Miami because it's like, because, like we were not, we were not. We're not afraid to move on.
Speaker 1:Yes, it's great because the city is so new that it can be built for the future from the ground up.
Speaker 2:It's a great thing. Like I said, we're not we're not afraid of this. I believe it's 25 years old piece, like once that before. Also, I have some random tea and I'm not entirely sure of its validity, but I'll give some hints about it. So there's a very large lot not too far away from here and it's been sold almost sold a couple of times. There's been some drama. Apparently, the tea unconfirmed is that a certain Italian sports car company is in negotiations, or found negotiations, to buy it to do a branded project.
Speaker 1:Interesting.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:More car towers. Well, it can't be Porsche.
Speaker 2:I said Italian.
Speaker 1:Right, right. Which ones do we already have? We have Aston Martin, we have Porsche. Which way is Bugatti? No, why did I think of that?
Speaker 2:Okay, Bugatti is like German or something.
Speaker 1:No, yeah yeah, I, just I for some reason like no, we don't have a Bugatti tower.
Speaker 2:But no, it would be quite a thing, It'd be like a, it'd be like a full what so, just for context, and like Dubai and stuff, italian car companies build like amusement parks and like resorts. I do Of course I have like three of them. But yeah, so this particular Italian car company, they they've been doing it for a long time. They they build resorts and amusement parks and stuff, so we could have nearby a branded.
Speaker 1:Is this Lamborghini Italian?
Speaker 2:They are Okay moving on. So okay, but no, I mean it's unconfirmed, but I just I was like, I was like that'd be cool, it'd be very Miami, it would be Yup. So that's interesting happening. Do you have any predictions for 2024?
Speaker 1:My prediction for 2024 is that it's going to be a continuation of what's been unfolding since 2020. I don't see any abrupt changes. I think that we're going to continue attracting wealth and talent and that's going to be the baseline for it. That's going to push forward the region, the business, the office basis, the residential, all of it. So that that's the prime thing I look at is will this wealth and talent migration abate or cease or reverse? And I think no, because the forces pushing it are very much there, in very much early days, and so I see that as continuing. I see, yeah, the path is continuing. I say the whole, the whole, the Sun Belt, the Southern States, including Florida, I think, will continue to ascend as the new financial epicenter of America and that Florida will continue to lead the way in many regards.
Speaker 2:I think, I think Florida is still its ascension, is its ascension path is quite long.
Speaker 1:Agree yeah.
Speaker 2:And I mean you know it's Florida, so you're never entirely sure what's going to happen. Fun, but oh, that's what I want to talk about. So I know we talk about it all the time, but Brightline.
Speaker 1:Right, right or shit was up.
Speaker 2:A lot Amazing. Yes, and yesterday I was talking to some of my friends, aluba, and she commented that, like Fire Stick, the Train was sold out yesterday.
Speaker 1:Yes, someone else posted. This too.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:My friend Brandon. Shout out to my friend Brandon he's like head of market insights at Siberia. Brandon posted this too. Yeah. The trains were full, he had to fly to Tampa. That's not Brightline, that's. Is that Brightline to Tampa?
Speaker 2:That's Amtrak.
Speaker 1:Amtrak correct, Even Amtrak was full. And then he made a general comment that Brightline is up too and that everyone is using trains in Florida.
Speaker 2:So yesterday I had to do a Turro trip. I rent my cars out on Turro. I do a Turro trip to Fort Lauderdale Airport, which is because there's no direct rail to Fort Lauderdale. Tri-rail goes near it, but anyways. So I dropped my car off, got in the shuttle for Tri-rail and it was literally Sardines. There's a video on my Twitter.
Speaker 1:Yes, I saw.
Speaker 2:Like I was like this I got on the shuttle and it was packed and so I got on that that was packed. We got to Tri-rail, that was packed for Tri-rail and then I took you take Tri-rail to Metro Rail Transfer Station in Hylia and then you take Metro Rail to then Metro Movers. Anyways, I took like I took like five different levels of transportation to get back to my house and all of them were above average, above average full. So I just advanced to tri RIGHT, tri petit àà De이를 lamais parle plus worda. Plus down I came to and that's that's fine to me, because the whole like mean about Miami that no one takes transit.
Speaker 1:And.
Speaker 2:I'm just like this place was packed, and the match remover too, over the past couple months has been Absolutely jammed like packed to the gills, yep.
Speaker 2:My friend Brandon was saying, as opposed to, they felt all the transit was packed, yeah, yeah so, and then also on the topic of trains, tri-rail is getting very close trademark to opening their downtown Miami connection. Cool, it's been the works for like 15 years and they are going to use bright line station as their Terminus in downtown Miami. It will be. I think it'll be transformative. I think it'll be more transformative than bright line because right now Tri-rail and sort of ends in Hialeah. You need to take metro rail to downtown. It's not convenient. No one seat ride, you gotta pay twice, basically. So Tri-rail is gonna come downtown and that is gonna be interesting because it's gonna connect Downtown Miami to a downtown Fort Lauderdale and downtown West Palm Beach for like $7. Right line is only about $25, for a reference. So you're gonna have a nice option. You're gonna be able to do fast and expensive or Gilaxton and and cheap, whatever your Whatever, whatever your mood is in it's great.
Speaker 2:So I'm excited about that. Tri-rail is great. It serves a purpose, it's. You know, bright line is wonderful, but not everyone can afford it, right, and that's very clear. So, like Tri-rail provides an option for the rest of us. I mean, I, I love bright land. I take it maybe twice or three times here because it's pricey. But people are using it like I mean, and I, we talked last night it was up like 40%, yeah, and they also.
Speaker 2:They also ordered like 30 more cars To expand their and they're they're making progress on the Tampa route as well all filling in. Yeah, well it's, you know I, I'm a Miami afford a booster. Okay, you got me, but we're I think we're doing some great things here.
Speaker 1:I agree on many fronts, on many fronts. I think that's all part of that attention. And it's still early days. I agree, yeah, I saw chicken on the street before I came here. I posted, I took a video of it. It was right by the station, across here. Yeah, off of 15th, and the scan everyone. Yeah, I said she, it was all crowded, people are waiting for the train and there's, you know, cars, and I'm like, is that a real chicken or a statue? I grew up in New York, sorry, everyone. So I walked up to a kind of tentatively and I said, oh, it's real. And then I took a video of it and I put it on on Twitter and I said you know what? This is how we know that it's still early days, that Miami is still cheap, prime downtown and there is a rooster or whatever the hell. It is a rooster. I think it's a rooster on the street.
Speaker 2:So, fun fact, most of those chickens you see that are floating around downtown are survivors of tentaria that's.
Speaker 1:That's why they're here human grandmother tried to kill it, but it and then we produced. I know. But yeah, that's why I posted. I said look the sign of.
Speaker 1:You know, it's like buying one while there's blood on the street, buying while the chickens are still Roman free and disease but it's true, I don't think in 10 years from now There'll be as many chickens on the street because the sea and someone said to me oh, but how can you say that when the city doesn't have a lot of price attainability for housing, we have this crisis going on. I said that's true, we do. I said what I mean is that in relative terms of the city's value, on a global Scale, it is still inexpensive, and this is true based on other intentional cities, and we have chickens on the street.
Speaker 2:I rant about that endlessly to like anyone who will listen. Like whenever someone tells them that Miami is expensive, I acknowledge it. I say yes, it is expensive, but it's completely relative, both to the country and to the rest of the world and major cities, and I feel like people just like just lose that, like it's. Miami is such a bubble which is fine, I like living in a bubble but but it's such a bubble that people forget that with their apartment that they pay, they have hundred dollars for it would be six thousand dollars in New York City or eight thousand dollars in San Francisco. People lose sight of the and that's why I keep track of trends in San Francisco and in New York, los Angeles, like I try and keep educated on it because it's so relative cheapest house is one posted on Twitter.
Speaker 1:The cheapest house in Palo Alto, listed whenever they found that a week ago, was 1.345, something like that, and it was a literal garage that was converted into a 650 square foot one bedroom.
Speaker 2:I saw. I saw one time that was like a burned-out shell. Like like a burned-out shell for like two point five million dollars. We're not quite that bad here. Like like two point five million will get you something nice. Like you can go to coral gables in Sort of the outskirts and get something nice for two point five million dollars.
Speaker 2:My, my friend lives down south, like in Palmetto Bay. It's far, but Her house is nice and she gutted it. It was 1970s, like you know, like shag and stuff. She gutted it but it's nice and I could see myself. If I ever wanted to start a family was they? I could live there in a house like that, and they aren't. They're expensive, but not like If I lived in the Silicon Valley. I would never be able to afford it. So relative, yeah, so I am excited for 2024.
Speaker 1:I'm very excited for 2024.
Speaker 2:I think it's going to be good. I think, like you said, the interest rates are going to start getting priced in it happened.
Speaker 1:Yeah Well, markets are pricing actually some of the before-rate cuts, which probably won't happen. But even if we get two, I think that will take pressure off some of the lack of inventory at lower price points here.
Speaker 2:I also think it'll help with the development side of things.
Speaker 1:Yes, absolutely.
Speaker 2:Because there's a lot of developments right now that are stuck waiting for.
Speaker 1:Correct, it may just decrease. Take off some of the friction from all lots of parts of the market, exactly.
Speaker 2:But it's funny. I'm not an economist, but I do think the Fed got the soft landing it wanted, at least here At least here I was saying recession where and for whom?
Speaker 1:It's a broader discussion.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yes, it's like the country's in a funny spot. The Fed's balance sheet is doing kind of crazy.
Speaker 2:Okay, bad.
Speaker 1:I think what's happening with reverse repos all of mine that's being printed towards sustaining things. That what's a reverse repo.
Speaker 1:Oh, that's a big, much better discussion, but anyway, it's a comment. Basically, the Fed went off into uncharted territory and has gone deeper into uncharted territory, and of the repercussions of that I don't know. It's like when we had what people fail to appreciate is the effects that monetary policy has on all aspects of society buying habits, the pricing of student debt, of homes, everything. And we had a 20-year period of time of Zerp, essentially zero interest rate policy and that was a historic anomaly 20 years of essentially zero percent interest when the history of money that's basically never happened. In fact, the ECB had negative rates at one point. Actually that has never happened in the history of central banking and money, going back thousands of years. So when this happens, it takes for that period of time. It essentially it takes risk off the table globally across asset classes and it also fundamentally changes buying behaviors and perceptions of risk across the board and that leads to increases in all assets. We see student loans, credit cards housing all this right and 20 years is a long time where that somehow became the norm, which is very, very strange.
Speaker 1:And when we look at sovereign debt chart, it in COVID came and COVID allowed for an already unsustainable situation to go even more asymptotic. By that I mean the chart starts to go vertical. And when charts start to go vertical, I don't care what the chart is of, it never ends gracefully. When charts start to, it just doesn't it, just it can't, because it can't get to vertical. To understand when I say asymptotic, it's a chart approaching this or whichever way you want to go right, so it can't approach the vertical, because if it goes straight up, it goes to infinity. That cannot happen, so something breaks, is my point. And so when we look at various charts that we have now of our monetary policy, they're very asymptotic in kind of scary ways.
Speaker 1:But we're in such a and it's an anomaly our whole thing, our whole, the whole thing has basically never happened before.
Speaker 1:So it's coinciding with this period in America of polarization that I keep talking about, and one of the things that achieves, or a byproduct of this, is wealth gap polarization and further decimation of the middle class, which is very much what's happening too, and that would happen before, and then COVID accelerated it, and that's one of the trends that we're seeing play out. And then also what we're seeing now with this geographic polarization is that people are moving in accordance with their beliefs and their pocketbooks, and that's going to further exacerbate all of this. So I think that we're going to increasingly see disparate, completely incongruent realities coexisting across our country, and that's also going to be a product of this monetary policy which has fueled so much of this. It's just, it's like endemic, it's like in the air you breathe and that's the reality that we had for 20 years, and it's skewed behavior so much, and that's what we're in right now. So Argentina's new president who came in, yeah, he's doing awesome stuff.
Speaker 1:This is super fascinating. So that guy came in. I don't know I posted it on Twitter, but the speech he gave, a whole speech. It was great. I don't know if it's going to do any of this stuff, but what he said was so fantastic.
Speaker 1:He was saying that politicians are the problem, and he's completely correct. That's why I keep talking about our feeder jurisdictions and stupid policies that are going to long-term hurt their jurisdictions. And he's saying this. It's like a parasitic class that enriches itself and feeds upon itself. But he's gotten fired off, like the 5,000 people hired last year by the government. He's cut all these boards, all these things.
Speaker 1:He's debasing the currency he's allowing for. He's basically taking central control away from currencies, allowing companies to pay in other currencies and Bitcoin and whatever he want If it works. If it doesn't work, I don't know. But it was fascinating to see him even say those things and to try to circle back on what Argentina has been doing, because we're very much parts of our country, are very much along that path and it never, never ends well. But America is such a big country that this I really think that we're going to see just increasingly to a crazy level, different realities coexisting across the country. That's tied into our monetary and fiscal policies. So yeah, the 20 years of Zerp is kind of frightening and we're in the aftermath of it.
Speaker 2:That's something else. I feel like Zerp, especially of COVID times. We are getting to the tail end. We're dealing, we're pushing out all the craziness because not just real estate, but like there are there are companies going, major companies going to bank up like every 10 seconds, every time I turn on the news like another company has gone chapter 11 or whatever, and I feel like all those companies were headed that way in general, but like the pandemic and COVID times sped that up.
Speaker 1:Right, Because leading into it we had we had a record high number of companies that were essentially zombie companies.
Speaker 2:Yes, and so they got like boosted up during COVID I hope no pun intended and then now the money's gone. We don't have zero interest rates, so it's like they're just, they're just falling it. They're falling like by the wayside. I, speaking of real estate, I saw Pennsylvania real estate advancement trust did bankruptcy. That's second time in like two and a half years. They do malls, by the way. That's their, that's their thing. They own really big malls. So second time in like two and a half years they're going to continue. They're not going away, they're just re rejiggering the debt.
Speaker 1:The other thing, part of this trend is going to be UBI, universal based income, which I, which I keep talking about Canada's floating this thing now in their thing, giving everyone $2,000 Canadian dollars a month, regardless of income.
Speaker 1:So you know, in parts of our country essentially already have UBI's, and we're talking about AI replacing jobs and all these things. So this again is also going to be tied to the polarization of society. It's almost, I feel, like it's an inevitability in our lifetimes. So my, my, my rosy take on this is that, for the purposes of one's own lifetime and again, 20 years, historically speaking is a rounding error it's absolutely nothing. We can talk about history, 20 years, 40 years, whatever but for the purposes of our lives, it's everything, it's huge. So, for the purposes of one's life, you just want to place yourself in the place that you see as being, on a path that's comfortable for you for the next 20 years beyond that Like it's. So again, this is part of my, my long Miami thesis is that, as the country continues to polarize, I think that we're going to emerge as a good place to live.
Speaker 2:I feel like one of these episodes. I'm just going to like do this as like a monologue for you when you're doing it and you're and you're just going to do like a monologue about all this for like 30 minutes, yes, cause you get like you get like really passionate about it. So I just want to like, I just want to sit there and film it. I'm just like, I'm just like 30 minutes and just like watch.
Speaker 1:No, never. It really is fascinating how cause we're in a period of rapid change, right?
Speaker 2:now.
Speaker 1:And it's this. You know, it happens every 100 years or so in some micro big cycle.
Speaker 2:But I mean, there are times that I wish I could have been born later or earlier, but I don't know.
Speaker 1:I'm like yeah.
Speaker 2:What are your goals for 2024?
Speaker 1:personally, oh, okay, so continuation again. My, my, always, my goal is to try to improve myself all the time. I call it training for life. We want to improve ourselves and utilize our time best all the time. So I'm continuing. Jujitsu, my crazy hobby, continues, also ties into our new wardrobe parameters.
Speaker 2:That's a different channel, I think.
Speaker 1:And then we're going to continue doing what I'm doing with analytics man, everything that I do, and then we're going to. We're going to rock out our new project, which we have not announced yet. So hold on to your hats.
Speaker 2:Everyone. When? When do we plan to announce that?
Speaker 1:Second week of January.
Speaker 2:Oh, excited the. Just so you know the. The amount of voice notes that I've been getting from Anna has gone like this over the past.
Speaker 1:That's our private podcast to release 100 years after our death.
Speaker 2:Yeah, exactly, yeah, yeah. If you saw the, if you saw the private audio tech is then back and forth. We either be like overnight famous or just all the way canceled.
Speaker 1:I'm not, I'm not sure, I'm not sure, I'm not sure what's going to happen.
Speaker 2:Oh fork Cool. My, my goals are to discover what I want to do next. So, everyone, I don't know if I really put this out there, but I got laid off from my day job a couple months ago and it's okay. The job was. I wasn't all that entertained by it. The money was nice, but it was a job I'd loved.
Speaker 2:So I have some time now for the first time in my adult life to really decide kind of what I want to do next, and that is a new thing, cause I've always had to go from job to job, job, job to job and so yeah, so I'm trying to decide what I want to do. Do I want to go to corporate America? Do I want to do a startup? Do I want to do like my own agency thing? I just don't know. And so my goal is to sort of figure that out and, you know, make make the best of it.
Speaker 2:Second goal is to really make this place, the hub, really rockin. I've been here since March of this year and I really we. I think we built a really good foundation along with the founder and community and all my friends, but this next year they want to take it to the next level. That's my goal and you know this podcast room it's just a part of it. We use it, but you know it's really for everyone and I hope some of you guys come here and get a chance to check it out, cause it's I mean, it's pretty cool, like I'm pretty proud of it, yeah. So yeah, noel, noel was really wonderful and I still I have so much respect for her for putting this together. It takes a special person for that. I don't think I could have done it. Listen, I've, I can be an entrepreneur, but to take on something of this magnitude and size by yourself, that's the I'm not sure I could stomach.
Speaker 1:It's a physical thing, yeah. You have to attend to it every day.
Speaker 2:Exactly, it's not. It's not passive income. So, yeah, people come check out the hub. We have offices, we have desks, we have co-working space. We also have large spaces. If you have a company that needs like 20 people, we also have a couple of those spaces available. You can have your own private space with lockable doors. It's like 3000 square feet or something approximately, maybe from 28 to 3000 square feet. So a lot of options there. But, yeah, I am excited overall of 2024. And I think only good things. And I'm excited to see where Miami goes in 2024. Same, I think and there's going to be so much, so much happening. I feel like, well, guys, thank you so much for watching.
Speaker 1:It's a wrap.
Speaker 2:And please have a safe and wonderful new year and we will see you in 2024 with all kinds of fun new things. Bye, guys.
