Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
Florida's New Frontier: Economic Shifts, Urban Planning, and Real Estate Insights
What if the next big economic powerhouse isn't where you think? Join us as we uncover the massive migration of wealth and talent reshaping the United States, with a surprising spotlight on southern states like Florida. From the electrifying "Rock the Market" event at the Hard Rock Hotel, we reveal how these regions are now eclipsing traditional giants like Washington DC and New York in national GDP share. Discover how remote work and the pandemic have permanently altered migration trends, and why Miami’s ascension is anything but temporary.
Next, we delve into Miami’s contrasting urban landscapes. On one side, there's the frenetic development of Brickell, a hotbed of rapid, sometimes chaotic growth. On the other, the meticulously planned My World Center stands as a testament to thoughtful urban design. We navigate the legislative hurdles facing older South Brickell buildings, through the ongoing dramas like Biscayne 21, to the exciting new ventures such as the Vela project. Plus, the buzz around Ken Griffin's 830 Brickell tower and its record-high leasing prices will have you rethinking Miami's market potential.
Finally, let’s bust some myths about the current real estate climate. Contrary to sensational media claims, there's no looming housing bubble. Inventory remains tight, repossessions are minimal, and the market is stable. We’ll also touch on the increased demand for schools, driven by an influx of high-earners, and share a personal homeschooling story that brings these trends to life. Tune in for a wealth of insights and updates that will leave you well-informed and ready for whatever the market throws your way.
Okay, we're ready Back to real estate and the world. 24, yeah, 24, exciting. Yeah, we've had some interesting stuff this week. In the last two weeks you did Rock the Market. I did.
Speaker 2:I spoke at Rock the Market at the Hard Rock Hotel. It was our annual sort of premier event by the Association of Realtors. I think we had close to 2,000 people there, yeah more than last year right, I think, similar. Okay, they consciously didn't want to go higher than last year. I think we were pushing the bounds of what could be contained. So it's the biggest event of the year. It's a great event. It's a really great event.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and you know I was watching it, but I was like damn, she looks hot.
Speaker 2:Oh why?
Speaker 1:thank you, the leather pants, the leather, you just need the whip and then the outfit is completed.
Speaker 2:You've got to keep their attention on the charts somehow.
Speaker 1:Shifting migration patterns. So what was your thesis this year?
Speaker 2:So it's a continuation of the ongoing thesis that were in the early days of a seismic shift in our country. The data that I update primarily it's that we have data points that keep coming in that corroborate the economic shift in focus in the country and as those data points keep coming in, I put them in the presentation. Also news articles that confirm the ongoing wealth and talent migration. There's tons of stuff and I always have that Venn diagram I always talk about identified years ago and saying that we're in the middle of the Venn diagram, we're in a period of rapid change and here's what's happening and it is and along the lines of that thesis, it is still early days because these things do not reverse.
Speaker 2:That was one of the main points that I made this year was I had charts showing how last year we had that shift where the six fastest-growing southern states now account for more of national GDP than the Washington DC, new York, boston quarter. And then we had charts showing outflows of taxable income from certain states and inflows in another set of states and those are very clear lines. And why would it reverse? That's the question. Why would it go backwards?
Speaker 1:I saw something I think you retweeted today. That was something about the long lines of for every household that moves out of Florida that has $200,000 or more income, two or three more move in. It's like a really good ratio, Correct?
Speaker 2:And we also have the highest number of high-earning millennials within that same sort of framework of high-value taxpayers. We have the highest number of high-value young taxpayers, which is a good, forward-looking metric.
Speaker 2:So, the data points keep coming in. It also keeps getting reflected in the action of our real estate markets, where the higher up we go in terms of price per square foot and just overall price, the more we're all cash, the more we're outperforming pre-COVID realities, because that's what's attracting the wealth and talent. Migration realities, because that's what's attracting the wealth and talent. Migration. And single family, of course, because we can't build more inventory vertically. But it's exciting times and that really is the main point is why would it reverse? That's the thing that I really want people to get their heads around.
Speaker 2:Is that the way that the 20th century was set up. You know our capitals like New York. New York was established in the 20th century before the internet. Right post-World War II, it became the capital of the world Post-Bretton Woods before the Internet. It's a 20th century construct, much like income taxes and much like the five-hour work week. Those are all 20th century realities and things are always shifting. There's always something else, and now life is reshaping. Oh, I also found data showing that the higher up you go in terms of income brackets, the more people modify their work around, using the Internet too. That was actually quantified, which makes sense, which is something I've been saying for a while is that people with more money or higher paying jobs are more likely to avail themselves of remote work and thus also more likely to be able to move, which is what we're seeing.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and that's the thing that we've both been saying for a while now is that people who have upper mobility and money, the pandemic permanently reshaped the world for those people, right, I think? If you go down a couple income brackets, the world may have shifted for a while for them, but for the higher income and the upward mobility it changed permanently, agree. And so those people can live in New York or San Francisco or Miami or wherever they want. So they go, like you always say, on the path of least resistance Yep.
Speaker 1:So they go places where it's tax friendly.
Speaker 2:Friendly, good for their business, good, you know, whatever it's good for their money exactly right, and that's happening at scale yeah and those are things that also have huge implications for tax bases, because your top one percent of earners account for over 45 percent of tax revenue in high tax jurisdictions. So all those things, but one of my main points is to have people realize that momentum cycles are real forces. They don't just reverse and go away, they build, they build and all of a sudden it's like you can't not recognize it.
Speaker 1:I still think people think, even with the pandemic realignment, that Miami is still a flash in the pan. My sort of rebuttal to that is it would take something worse than Andrew to dampen Miami's ascension.
Speaker 1:It could happen, you know, anything can happen, but like it would take something on that magnitude, catastrophic, yep, and at that point we're all just doomed anyways so like oh it's there's a flash in the pan, the things, markets gonna crash and whatever I'm like it would take either for the country to fall into an actual depression where no one has any money, even the wealthy people, or a catastrophic natural event. Those are the two things that could happen.
Speaker 2:Yes, I agree.
Speaker 1:So I agree, and you know we had a little field trip. We went up to Fort Lauderdale, we braved 95 and did With a self-driving vehicle. I used self-driving, because 95 scares me even after eight years.
Speaker 2:I can't drive. I used to sell driving because 95 scares me.
Speaker 1:Even after eight years I can't drive. It's perfect. Yeah, it was fun. So we went to see Andar Andar, it was cool. It was right on Los Olos, there it's a branded project done by Pinafer. Yeah, but it was cool because we went there.
Speaker 2:It was a yacht day.
Speaker 1:I was saying I felt very it was fun to feel wealthy for like a minute. I have people bringing me wine. I was like this is the life. But anyways, we were there with people who were actually looking to buy. There was people looking out there and the interesting thing about that project was that it was, all I would say, kind of waspy domestic buyers Yep, yep, yeah, and this project is an ultra-luxury project. And he said that the lowest was like $2 million.
Speaker 2:It's not ultra-luxury the lowest was like $2 million. It's not ultra-luxury.
Speaker 1:No, I'm saying that, oh, not like ultra-luxury, but like the cheapest unit was $2 million.
Speaker 2:I don't recall because they're just over 900 a square foot. Okay, so they're under 1,000 a square foot starting and they had. They're all pass-through.
Speaker 1:Okay, sorry, I'm spreading Because smaller units were 1,000 yeah, okay well, it's a mid-tier luxury product.
Speaker 2:We'll call it that for a lot.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's different than miami, but it was interesting because all the buyers that were there were um from indiana and chicago and ohio correct.
Speaker 2:Yes, 100 right they were.
Speaker 1:They were all looking at buying it as like a vacation home or like retirement. Um it was. It was just interesting to see a product outside Miami.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's a new product for the area too. The area doesn't really have that condo product. That's filling in now and they said that they had people who were empty nesters leaving their houses because it's the first of its type there.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and it's cool because it's on Los Olos and everything to the east of it is like height restricted, so they have almost permanent views it's really nice.
Speaker 2:It was really quite nice. Brian restricted, so they have almost permanent views.
Speaker 1:It's really nice. It's really quite nice, Brian. Is this Casa Bella?
Speaker 2:It has the same effect as Casa Bella. Mr. Encyclopedia here of what every exterior looks like.
Speaker 1:It's wavy. It's like Casa Bella's cousin that took the short bus, because it's like 20 stories shorter. Architectonica, they know what they're doing and they do it every time. They ordered up that version.
Speaker 2:I swear.
Speaker 1:I know Architectonica is like a local icons or whatever, but I swear developers can just go to their headquarters, flip through like a catalog and be like I want wavy balconies with a metal screen podium and in gray. I mean, gets the job done, what's wrong with that? And then you slap a brand name on it and watch the money roll in Watch the magic happen.
Speaker 1:And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Developers in Miami here have the process down to like a science. They know what brings the buyers and they know what people are looking for. They want to see the branded name there, they want to see the rooftop pool with the palms and like it's just. It's very much down to a science. On that note, I'm always happy to see when there are developers who take it to the next level, like Kodo and Aston Martin and also their new product. That's happening over in Bricle that just got approved. It is Crescent Heights and 601, sorry Gale, they did a lot of effort on the landscaping and the finishes.
Speaker 2:Street activation. It's really well done.
Speaker 1:It's really well done. I'll open it. There's like a fountain on the corner that has the coral limestone that's here in Miami and it has a little water and lights. Developers don't have to do that. I mean, look at most developers, most developers. They just give you a concrete sidewalk and that's it. It's like a double-edged sword because a lot of times in my Developers can build by right. They can just build whatever they really want, as long as it's in the codes, and they maximize that lot coverage and they bring the overhangs out to the edges and you end up with a box with concrete.
Speaker 2:But yeah, 601 did a really great job and on the ground level there's a huge space for an Italian restaurant. It's not even open yet, it's almost open, but it's going to activate that whole corner, the cafecito off the sidewalk, and it's a very well-done project.
Speaker 1:And then inside there's a hammam. Too Correct, that's correct, Yep, there's a hammam up there. There's a beautiful gym. I think they're looking for that little extra oomph Because they can go to a certain developer and get the wavy balconies. I think if I had that money I'd be looking for someone that does have those details.
Speaker 2:MELANIE WARRICK yes, yes, they did a great job at it. It's a unique thing you go there and you feel like you've gone to a place. It feels like it has substance.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and that's the same thing that I feel about downtown versus Brickell, especially my World Center. My World Center is new, it's only seven years old maybe at this point, and when you walk around it you feel that it has a sense of place.
Speaker 2:Yeah, sense of place.
Speaker 1:That's a great way of putting it. That's my presence.
Speaker 2:You feel like you're in a real place.
Speaker 1:And listen. I like Brickle for the amenities it provides, but when you walk around it doesn't feel cohesive.
Speaker 2:All of it does not.
Speaker 1:It was built in the last cycle, when they were literally building as fast as they could. There was barely any sort of public benefit. You know what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 2:Civic-mindedness.
Speaker 1:We'll put a 60-story tower here. Screw the sidewalks, Sidewalks. So it's like that's the difference If you look at Brickle versus my World Center. My World Center has trees and there's water features, and you've been to the square in West Palm Beach?
Speaker 2:No.
Speaker 1:No, no, it used to be called City Plate. I have not. That was done. That's your trip. We have to go on, yeah, bright Line trip. That's right, they did that a long time ago.
Speaker 1:But that is sort of my World Center is sort of the this decade version of that. Okay, wide promenades and like trees and plants and like an actual thought behind it. Yep, so I like that. And yes, my world center is very much still in progress. There are rough edges, there are stuff that's still not done, but even now, with it almost less than halfway done, you walk around it and it just feel. I know people who have moved from Brickell to my world center some good friends of mine and they're like, wow, why didn't we do this earlier? And they loved Brickell to my World Center. Some good friends of mine and they're like, wow, why didn't we do this earlier? And they loved Brickell. But when they got to a place that had a real urban sense of feel, a place, and we'll see what ends up happening with the whole signature district around the new bridge too.
Speaker 2:Yes, there's a huge park plan there.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that'll be, and it's filling really nicely. That'll be interesting because there's a lot of people with their hands in the pot. There you have the state, the city and the county, so we'll see. I mean, I'll be happy if there's some grass under there and some nice sculptures. But then also the cool thing is when you move the bridge over, you're going to have acres of land that you can do stuff with. That's right, Because the bridge is moving over by like a block that's planned.
Speaker 2:I think yeah.
Speaker 1:So you have space that you didn't have before Yep, and I'm excited about that. There's so much happening. I mean, once again Crescent Heights is doing that, but we talked about before they're doing that Rock 14.
Speaker 2:Rock 14. In the signature district. Yeah, that's part of the whole plan.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's like you know land that's currently just to the south of the bridge, right behind Marquis. They own that. I don't know if they're gonna do, but they own that as well. So I think you're gonna see a big push for development in that area once the bridge is sort of in progress.
Speaker 2:It's gonna look entirely different in five years.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I was on a rampage tweet rampage last week about I took my scooter down to South Brickell and I was scootering around and I was just looking at all these buildings and I was you know, surfside always is sort of in the back of my head and I was looking at all these buildings, everything sort of south of Southeast 15th Street in Brickell, and I was just looking at these buildings and I was like this is insane.
Speaker 1:These buildings are from the 70s and the 80s and the 60s even, and I know that they are eventually not going to pass whatever certification.
Speaker 2:Well, it's just not sustainable yeah.
Speaker 1:I did. I asked Chachi PT to sort of lay out the buildings. So they're building Una there. The building next to Una, guess what year it was built? Brickle Townhouse was built in 1963. Una's almost done. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and it's just, there's not one unit for sale.
Speaker 2:In the 60s building. Yeah, how can that be?
Speaker 1:I checked, I double checked. There was not one single unit for sale Interesting. So either a developer has already wrangled it all together or the assessments and costs don't make it. People are just not willing to buy something that old Interesting.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so I'm actually going to start a series, I think in the next week or two. That's going to be like going over buildings, the deeper context of buildings that need to go away, scudetto, get developed. People are already yelling at me about it because I know people who live in those buildings or own those buildings. It's obvious If you own there, you're potentially sitting on a jackpot, potentially.
Speaker 2:Correct Best case scenario.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and the worst case scenario is that you get a $100,000 assessment and you can't sell it. I saw a listing last week for some building and it said not Brickell Townhouse. Another one it said there's an assessment but the owner will pay it for five years or something. That's normal. Yeah, like they'll pay five years of the assessment. So many pieces and so much legality, but the clock is ticking. They have until December 31st to get things in line Good luck everyone.
Speaker 1:People are saying that the Florida thing's going to convene a special meeting, litigate, not litigation, whatever you call the lawmaking sessions for the state, and I mean, yes, they can, but there's not much that.
Speaker 2:They could just buy them more time. Buy them time.
Speaker 1:Not much no.
Speaker 2:It's not going to change the reality. Yeah, they don't want all the catastrophic influx all at once so you can spread it out, maybe, do those things, but you're still appeasing. You're not solving, you're just kicking the can down the road. Oh, yes, they told you that the BBC asked me if it was global warming. I did this whole podcast interview with the BBC after it. I said global warming. I said no, and then it came to me that it was a trifecta of negligence, incompetence and corruption, and I think that's what it is.
Speaker 1:All cases negligence, incompetence and corruption. Yeah, I don't know. I'm not entirely sure what's going to happen next year with older condos. I mean, we've been talking about this for weeks now. What would you say? The percentages of older condos in the market right now are for the whole market. Do you know that?
Speaker 2:So there's an ISG report that's quoted a lot on this topic and they had something like 90% are old. But when they do this, they take out condo hotel units, they take out other things. So they're only selecting for traditional condos, which is fair At least 70.
Speaker 1:I think you had a bar chart on your talk.
Speaker 2:It's a high percentage. Again, there's wiggle area depending on how you define things, but it's definitely high, which makes sense. And then also, even without the existence or the incoming pressure of this law change, the people who are moving to us domestically from high-tax jurisdictions. They're not looking to buy old stuff anyway, even if it didn't have this problem coming. That's not the product they're buying. They're coming from areas that are already more expensive than Miami. They're coming with incomes and they're looking for a nice product. Like we know this the prime location, high price per square foot product. This this year, in almost every market segment, has sold more Q2 this year than last year and in some cases had a record Q2. So they're not looking for old stuff. They never were, so the old stuff is not benefiting from them. And now the old stuff is hit with this extra burden of this law change. They're just in trouble.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I don't think ever the transplants were insured in Brickell Townhouse.
Speaker 2:No, and I said to the BBC back then. The BBC asked me well, do you think this will imperil? Because that was a few years ago and it was the early days of this wealth and talent migration. And the BBC asked me will this disaster sort of stall or impede the progress of Miami's real estate markets? And I said no, because at the time we weren't getting the foreign buyers because they physically still weren't really coming right. So I said that's an important distinction, because the Latin American buyer didn't all of a sudden decide they didn't want Miami, it was just COVID, they didn't come. So that surge that we had at the time is attributed almost entirely to domestic migration. And I told the BBC I said no, because our wealth migrants are not looking for old product. I said years ago. I said if anything, this will just sharpen the divide between new and old and it's a bifurcated market. And that's exactly how it's playing out.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, it's going to be interesting, and I just saw also last week an article about Biscayne 21, and it was really interesting because, I swear, anna, some of those owners are Delulue.
Speaker 2:Sorry.
Speaker 1:As Gen Z says, they're Delulue.
Speaker 2:My new word for the day.
Speaker 1:Delulue. Yeah, but it was this article of an older woman, I'm guessing, probably 60s or 70s, and she's one of the owners that took two roads to court for this. So I've been talking about it before. But to catch everyone up, biscayne 21 is about three blocks. That way it's a 1970s or 60s building passes expiration date on a prime piece of land and it's two roads bought it. They're going to put an addition, addition, a branded residence there and then two more towers, which are no names. Anyways, they bought it.
Speaker 1:Apparently there were some shenanigans and they bought enough units and then they lowered that percentage to 80. I don't know, I'm not a lawyer, I don't pretend to be. I just know that that happened. They started demolition and then the owners who were left, which is like four of them, were like eh, and so they took two rows to court, to a Florida court, and the judge upheld whatever their complaint was. So now Biscayne 21 is literally over there, half demolished, like gutted. The top four floors are demolished. This article with this lady was standing in front of it and she's like I'm moving back into this building. Where To what?
Speaker 1:The building has not had air conditioning or services in almost a year. Now it's done, lady, the building's done. It's done like, and what I was saying is name your overinflated price and let's move on. That's what I say to her, not out of meanness or bitchiness. Just like name, they'll pay it, just move on. And you might. If you fight, you might actually get less, because they're going to get the floor of the Supreme Court and 90% of the Supreme Court will be like. This is ridiculous.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So they're playing a game, I think there that isn't going to pay off. Yes, and it's like I don't have a picture of the building here, but I wish you could see it Like, literally, the four top floors are down to the studs or the concrete.
Speaker 2:Lovely yeah, come on back home. Come back home. It's a little unrealistic.
Speaker 1:There really is, because they want to build. I learned yesterday it was called Vela. Uh-huh, that's what it's called. It's the little land next to Cité 21. Okay, cite 21. They want to build a 50-story sort of Aston Martin-y type tiny land and once again, the former HOA board at Cite 21 or 2001 did some sort of analysis with the developer and transferred them development units, because Cite 2021 is a huge piece of land. So they sold development rights to those people without a vote from the homeowners. So they sold development rights to those people without a vote from the homeowners. However, the people who want to build Vela can build it by right because they designed it. So it's like literally no variations. So now they're in negotiations with the new 2001 people to try and make it more. It's drama and they could start building it tomorrow if they wanted, by right. But they're being nice and talking to the people there, exciting All the drama. This is why I do this podcast, because where else does this happen?
Speaker 2:On a positive market note, there was a Financial Times article this week saying that Miami is the bright spot in the country's office market. That Brickell office rents.
Speaker 1:In all time it said Brickell office lease Right.
Speaker 2:Except for one of the bright spots in the country is real estate.
Speaker 1:Office real estate. It was a Brazilian bank and they leased 26,000 square feet at 830 Brickell Again 830 Brickell is Ken Griffin's tower. It's now 100% leased.
Speaker 2:Amazing. So much for the naysayer alarmist articles.
Speaker 1:I think that really says something because even as companies have been pushing back to the office and so forth, they're releasing up a trophy building that is going for Manhattan prices leasing up a trophy building that is going for Manhattan prices.
Speaker 2:Well, many other cities across the nation are at vacancies far exceeding their pre-COVID realities. Yeah, and we're leasing at prices per square foot. That would have been fiction 10 years ago. Like insane fiction. Yeah, no one would have believed it.
Speaker 1:Well, and that's the thing is. I think people have a very limited memory, especially when it comes to Miami Very limited, so you guys have to remember that pre-COVID Miami had what was classically called a reverse downtown.
Speaker 1:In most downtowns people commute to those downtowns to work. In Miami it's the opposite. Everyone lived downtown and commuted out to like Doral, reverse downtown. During COVID, when everyone moved here, we had we could fill up, we had lots of vacancy, we filled up a lot. And now everyone who sort of brought the money is now looking like they want to live and work in the same place.
Speaker 2:Yep, exactly right.
Speaker 1:That's the thing.
Speaker 2:Exactly right.
Speaker 1:And that's why Ken Griffin is building his new tower on Brickell Bay, because it's right by the roads of Coconut Grove so his executives can live there and commute just a couple miles, live by the schools yep. Yeah, so.
Speaker 2:Build more schools? I don't know.
Speaker 1:People are complaining because all the hedge funds it's a problem with the schools. They bought out the schools for years. They paid the money to like oh, I know.
Speaker 2:I have friends who have tried to pay schools. I know Really. Yes, it's like New York all over again.
Speaker 1:I don't know, I just don't see it. Yes.
Speaker 2:Oh, yes, wow, I mean New York. I went to a New York City private school from a very young age, but they I wasn't recall. But there are books written on the dramas about New York private schools. It's coming here. Wow. I don't even like school. I don't agree with sending children to school. I was homeschooled so. That's great. Yeah, my mom is wonderful. Great appreciation for Ryan's mom.
Speaker 1:Yeah, my mom was. Homeschooling was one step above illegal.
Speaker 2:Right.
Speaker 1:Moms were going to jail. Your mom is so awesome For homeschooling their kids. Yeah, and my mom was such a pioneer. She homeschooled all four of us kids. That's awesome, and she's a saint. Because I couldn't you? I am good at many things. Being a teacher and having patience is not one of them. I can't teach anyone anything Like I'll just do it, I'll get into it. I'll just I'll do it for you, out of the way.
Speaker 2:Interesting. I get into professor mode Nice, my professor mode. I like teaching jujitsu. Yeah, I get into that too, but your mom is amazing.
Speaker 1:Oh, my mom's amazing and I don't know school is. You know I I'm like I wasn't for college. I tried, I did it for two semesters.
Speaker 2:I went to college despite myself. That's the honest truth. I really hated school and I was just good at it and I tried to do as little as possible but consciously I did as little as possible, like I took my SATs cold, I took my AP exams cold. I took my AP exams cold. I did as little as I resented the usage of my time on those endeavors and I hated it and I stand by every. I said it was prison for children. I said can I just take a test and like be done with this? Why am I wasting my time? Like I hated it and I felt so strongly there was a complete waste of my time and I was right. In retrospect I was completely correct. I mean, you know, school pretends, first of all, school pretends to teach you what to think, but it doesn't really. It teaches you how to take tests.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, that's what it teaches you how to do, and whatever it is teaching you, it's not like designed for you, and I found it incredibly boring and a complete waste of my time. Okay, so they endeavor to teach you how to think, and how to think is the most important thing, so the whole thing to me was a contrived waste of time. So I did as little as possible and I just yeah, I got into school despite myself.
Speaker 1:Yeah, For me it was when I went to college. I liked the classes that were relevant to whatever I was studying, the interesting stuff. My brain could not handle the generalized education, it just wouldn't.
Speaker 2:I'd go to these classes that were like the gen ed and I just was like I just stopped showing. I really have one or two professors who I fondly remember as being kind of like mind-opening, because learning how to think is the most important thing. So I had one professor I'm sure he's passed away now because I was probably and he was in his 80s and that was a long time ago. I'm old, so I'm sure he's passed away now because that was probably and he was in his 80s and that was a long time ago. I'm old, so he was in his 80s back then and there was a class that was held at the physics building at Columbia, pupin Hall.
Speaker 2:Remember I was the only girl and the youngest person, it was like me and seven or six other people. It was tiny because he scared people and it was a class on Iodeometry, manifold physics, whatever, and so he was one of the seminal figures of 20th century special relativity theory, the guy who worked with Jonathan Wheeler, whatever. He was cool, he was a genius, and I remember he would have these things there and he would just pull his stuff from the board and he would just step away and he would say look at this, everyone, how beautiful it is.
Speaker 1:Beautiful minds.
Speaker 2:Test that he gave age and, like you, never scored higher. No one ever scored higher than their age out of 100, you know. And no one, no one. And I realized like to him, like how boring, why would he give you something that had an answer? Oh, got it. Like that's just what. Does he want you to repeat what he said? Like that's stupid. So he gave these things and he wanted to see what you could think of. Okay, like it was fantastic. It was just that that man that and things like. But there's like all the time I wasted at school, that's all I got. It's like two people like that. I got that and that was at Columbia. So I got like one crazy genius like that. The rest of it was an abject waste of time, my grand accomplishment at school was I got a tenured professor suspended.
Speaker 2:Oh, good job.
Speaker 1:Yes, wow, she was an English writing thing and she was grading the stuff based on her worldview like extremely, and half the class basically failed and we took all our stuff to the dean and we're like Anna's saying sponsor us, hi Celsius.
Speaker 2:Sponsor our anti-school agenda here. No, I'm very pro-learning. To be clear, it's just that the school structure, like you were just saying, you're so beholden to these people in the classroom and most of them are not inspiring people.
Speaker 1:I think school was designed for Workers. A worker is an average NNPC Mediocrity and so if you're any sort of neuro-spicy which most of us are it's just it doesn't. If you don't fit into the mold, they're like we don't know what to do with you. They don't, I know. That's why I don't homeschool me, because she saw that I was going to be neuro-divergent at an early age and she was like you're gonna, you would die in school.
Speaker 2:I love your mom. Yeah, I love her too.
Speaker 1:Hi Ryan, I have a project I want to talk about, or two projects I want to talk about, because it's important for the upcoming election. So, watson Island, yep, on the causeway. There are two projects happening there, one on the north side and one on the south side. The one on the north side is Jungle Island redevelopment.
Speaker 1:They were originally going to put a hotel there and expand Jungle Island and get rid of all the animals and all that Anyway. So they came back to the drawing board with a different idea. They want to put condos on a piece of it on actually a very small piece of it and then return most of it to a park, public available park, not Jungle Island. They got to pay to like an actual park. That's the north side. On the south side you have the same developers who did my World Center. I can't pronounce his name.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, yeah, I was going to.
Speaker 1:The family that did my World Center. So you have two projects there. They're both waterfront and they both want to do the same thing. They want to put condos up and put a big chunk of the land back to a park. I am very much in favor of this. I think it's something that people should vote yes on, because I love Miami. But one thing it is not good at is it is not good at managing prime city-owned land. It's just not. We're not good at it. And the highest and best use of Watson Island is not a theme park and a marina Not the highest and best use. So I would say vote yes on both of them. There's two separate ballot items. I don't know what the numbers of them are, but it would provide a lot of park space in the middle of the bay for public use.
Speaker 2:Okay, makes sense.
Speaker 1:So that is my endorsement for that. I don't get involved in politics a lot but I think that would make a very good. And then also it's eventually on the path of whatever the Bay Link turns into, so you would have a nice park to go there. Another interesting project it's not on the ballot but the empty land over here on 17th Street by Mellow Group is finally moving through permitting, which I'm very excited about. It's like 1,100 units. I've always called this area over here in Biscayne sort of the dead zone the Biscayne dead zone because it's been empty for like 40 years. There's nothing been there, so I'm very excited that that is sort of under development. What else Interesting? Any interesting projects you had that you've come across Off?
Speaker 2:the top of my head, no.
Speaker 1:Oh, I have some fun, not really update. But so Legacy, my World Center, they had to pause recently well, not recently, but a few months ago because they put plumbing or something in the wrong spot, like they started building it.
Speaker 1:they got to the 16th floor and then realized that stuff was Did they switch contractors halfway through, or something, something happened and they changed designs and they got this on the 16th floor and they said if they would have gotten any higher than that, it would have been a untenable project because they would have to rip it all out and start over again. Apparently, it's been paused for like four months now. However, I am hearing that there is drama behind the scenes. They have a lot of construction liens. That's what I'm saying. It sounds like a construction, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, there's a lot of construction liens, and I think I think I don't know how many of you think this, but I think the crane got repoed yesterday or whatever. Whatever happens when they don't pitch.
Speaker 2:When you hear stuff like halfway through at some point that the plumbing's all wrong Construction issue going on, and that makes sense, that I don't well, I have any insights, but usually I mean I don't have any insights besides the random DMS I get from anonymous people, but it was.
Speaker 1:There's definitely drama. The legacy has been a drama project since the day it. They've switched contractors like three times and they also bought the land next them there which they were an expand the project. That's what the drama is. They Didn't change the design, I don't know, but anyways, I think the crane got repoed or whatever happens. That's exciting, whatever happens when you don't pay your bill for a crane. So that's fun and yeah, you know, that's why I love my once again. That's why I do this podcast, because this stuff doesn't happen. Who repos cranes?
Speaker 2:That's great.
Speaker 1:Did we talk about the 90 high-rises in the last one, or did that come out later?
Speaker 2:I think it came out now. That's correct.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:There was a great infographic that Ryan shared showing that the Florida Miami, the Miami area, has more high-rise under construction than all of California.
Speaker 1:We have 90, and. California has, miami has 90. California in total, the West Coast in total, has like 40. That's crazy. In total, wow, you gotta remember.
Speaker 2:That's not a sign of where the growth is going. I don't know what is.
Speaker 1:I mean you have to remember that the population on the West Coast is huge. Yeah, yeah, I mean like LA County. I think is like I mean who would build there. They keep changing tenant laws, all these things, and Speaking of laws, they saw that Austin thing I sent you.
Speaker 2:Yes, it's like their fees for development in Austin are going up Going up some enormous amount, like huge amounts, and their values have already tanked Austin's in trouble.
Speaker 1:I trouble. I was like what, how did yeah, yeah? It's you know Good job West.
Speaker 2:Coast. Good job West Coast.
Speaker 1:I'm not very good at math at all times, but when I see things like that and also there's another one where about the building, luxury housing and bringing oh yeah, oh God, that politician in New York.
Speaker 2:There's a New York politician. He said that adding inventory will put. I had to read it a few times. Yeah, I know, I'm like huh, okay, what, okay, what happened here? He said that adding inventory would put forward pressure— Upward pressure, upward pressure, he said.
Speaker 1:On pricing yes, I said what, huh, how, and this is an example of ivory tower politics bureaucrats decreeing how business will be with impunity. Yeah, the funny thing is that was not the most insane part of that politician we talked this last week. He was. He denied the project. That was like the secondary part. The first part is because it would cast a shadow on a park for like three hours. Yes, that that was the main reason. The upward, the upward, the upward pressure, pressure.
Speaker 2:That extra supply would put on inventory. What?
Speaker 1:It's insane. I just and like it's simple math, like I don't know. I feel like we need like another segment. It's like just like Miami math, like my real estate math, because it's so like I don't know.
Speaker 2:Well, we keep seeing the headlines of all these things, some guys saying oh, market crashing, market crashing, market crashing, yes. And we keep getting those headlines. I always end you though yeah, July closed out in boys and girls it's not crashing. Oh yeah, yes, Do you have any previews of?
Speaker 2:that I do, in fact. So July closed out. So single family median pricing in Miami hit another all-time high. It's just gone straight up. It's up both month over month, year over year and at an all-time high. Inventory remains over 40% or is it 38% or 40% below pre-COVID. It is up year over year in general, which is fine because inventory dropped so much, but we're still far below pre-COVID levels. And then lower price inventory is just disappearing. And one thing they're trying to continue this Below half a million dollars. Now we have fewer than 500 listings in Miami-Dade County. Wow, less than 500? Yes, there used to be over 3,500. And then for condos, we're up a tiny bit month over month, kind of flat, year over year. The condo market is doing this little type of thing, which is not a crash at all. It just stopped going up.
Speaker 1:And we also have the older.
Speaker 2:That's what I'm saying because the whole market's in there, Exactly right? Yeah, so there's no. And even for the whole condo market, even accounting for that, in the entire all of inventory is still over 30% below where it was pre-COVID. So where's the disaster? I don't see it.
Speaker 1:It just stopped going straight up and every single week I send you screenshots.
Speaker 2:Oh, it's like they're like disaster Market's bursting. I'm like what are you guys talking about?
Speaker 1:Like inventories below pre-COVID were heavy cash, high equity. I sent you the one, the guy that always is doom and gloom, the re-venture guy that guy, that's his whole shtick yeah his whole shtick.
Speaker 2:It's like clickbait, clickbait. The sky is falling, it's crashing, it's this, it's that Okay. First of all, when we have crashes, when markets crash, there's a bubble and you have this rapid okay. What causes a rapid sort of collapse is almost always irresponsible usage of cheap debt, and then what happens is that the underlying asset can no longer service the debt and it rapidly crumbles and falls. So we don't even have that scenario. This market has not pushed up by debt. There were no liar loans in this market and it's a heavy cash market. What's the bubble? There's no bubble and inventory. It's crazy talk.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you're not seeing repossessions go high.
Speaker 2:And a very small percentage of arms. Actually, it's not that reality. And then inventory is below what was pre-COVID. Prices are not crashing at all, especially single family. Inventory is below what was pre-COVID Prices are not crashing at all, especially single family.
Speaker 1:Like what are they talking about? It's so bizarre. It gets the clicks every time and you know there are people that their whole stick is to be doom and gloom.
Speaker 2:I know and it appeals to other people who like that those people will click. I have to think sometimes like, do they want to crash?
Speaker 1:so they can buy something. No no no, they just like to see it Most of them, I guess, I guess. But anyways, y'all be safe out there. This weekend it's going to be a lot of rain and a tropical storm somewhere out there, so but yeah, thank you for watching again. I had fun this time, super fun. It was great, so yeah stay dry out there. All right, everyone Thank you.
