Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
Miami's Real Estate Reality: Debunking Myths, Brickell's Transformation, and Political Trends
Can you really afford to miss the truth about Miami's real estate market? This episode promises to debunk myths and present a clear, data-driven picture of property trends. Join us as we start by revealing the behind-the-scenes challenges of producing a multi-camera, multi-microphone podcast, setting the stage for an insightful discussion on Miami’s real estate landscape. We dive deep into the numbers, clarifying misconceptions about falling prices and highlighting the real growth in single-family homes and city-level condos.
The vibrant Brickell area takes center stage as we explore its rapid transformation and the influx of Class A office spaces from major developments like Citadel HQ and Santander. We'll unpack the unique commuting patterns in Miami and their impact on residential areas such as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove. Plus, get a firsthand account of our scooter tour through Wynwood, where we witnessed exciting projects that are reshaping the neighborhood. We also touch on the redevelopment of Sunset Place, turning it into a bustling community hub.
Lastly, we delve into Miami's political and developmental trends, from the transformation of Park West to the introduction of luxury condos in Overtown. We'll compare Miami's relatively harmonious political climate to other major cities and discuss the broader implications of Florida's political and economic trends, including the Brightline expansion and no-income-tax policy. Wrapping up with an optimistic outlook on the future of Miami's real estate market, this episode is packed with insights, stories, and data that you won't want to miss.
Hello everyone, Welcome to episode number 26. How exciting 26.
Speaker 2:I've learned so much in this time that it's like just wow. I mean, I've learned so much. I spent way too many hours on it, but it's like it's a really good thing. This is all Ryan's magic everyone.
Speaker 2:I think people think when they watch this that you just press record and go there's so much there's so much behind it that, like with three cameras, if you want to record a podcast with one person and one mic and a remote guest, super easy, like just click and go. Trust me, I learned that when you add what uh up to three cameras and two mics, the Complexity level. Compounds infinitely, it's not linear correct. So, anyways, thank you, I appreciate it. It's a lot of stuff, so you have some things to talk about.
Speaker 1:Speaking of things, compounding, in a nonlinear fashion.
Speaker 2:Nice segue.
Speaker 1:Nice segue. We have this ongoing broken telephone about the Miami market. There was an article in the Daily Mail just a few days ago. That was a new article. It was published in September but it repeated that broken telephone, citing Realtorcom talking about dropping prices, list prices in Miami.
Speaker 2:Still going.
Speaker 1:It's still going. But it acted like it was new data, but it was a repeat of the old data, which was also incorrect from August, okay, from reported in August, anyways. So they did not actually report on the actual September numbers.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:Rather they just misreported what Realtorcom said. Anyways, just to give people a little overview of what the actual numbers for Miami-Dade County and the city of Miami were in the month of August, it is important to note that we're going to break this down into condos and single family, both county level and then on a city of Miami level, so we have four different categories. Only one of them was down slightly year over year and that's Miami-Dade condos. So for the city of Miami, single family homes in August finished up 6.5% year over year, with a median price of $665,000. And that's up 80% versus 2019. And that's the context that is super important to remember.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we're up so high that it just is like 80% in five years.
Speaker 1:And inventory levels across the board are still down about 30% versus pre-COVID. So inventory levels are not sky high. It is not true they're up year over year, but they fell so much that it's a good thing actually, especially as interest rates come down a little bit. Hopefully they continue to do so. That'll free up inventory at the lower end, because people have been locked in.
Speaker 2:Isn't the Fed meeting like tomorrow?
Speaker 1:Correct, that's right. That's right. So if they lower interest rates, that might again help our affordability challenge by freeing up lower priced inventory, because people are locked into homes. If they were to move and stay in the region they would get less house for more money with a more expensive loan. So inventory past below the median price point has plummeted almost 80% and hopefully that'll free that up. So single family homes are up six and a half percent on a city level. Condos in a city level of Miami are up 4.7% year over year, so that is not a crisis and they remain 78% up in median pricing versus 2019. So yes, inventory is up, especially as we go to lower price points but, this is not a condo disaster.
Speaker 2:I think also you have to look at that if the older condos, if that crisis was taken out, I think the condo pricing would probably be up a lot.
Speaker 1:Correct, because when you isolate for newer product, that's where you see the biggest divergence. This is with no segmentation. Now, on, a'm sorry, on a Miami-Dade level. No, I'm sorry, that was incorrect. Miami-dade single-family homes are up 4% year-over-year. Now we're going to go to condos. Miami condos are up 3.1% year-over-year in a city level. On a county level, they're down 1.5% year-over-year. So the city of Miami is up 3.1% year over year for condos. This is closing at the month of August, remaining up 77% versus 2019. And on a county level, we're up 72% versus 2019 and down 1.5%. So why is the county down 1.5%, but the city of Miami is up 3.1%? Because the county, of course, encompasses a larger land area that is further away from the financial core and has more older inventory, and it's the older inventory that is pulling the market down.
Speaker 1:So, to your point earlier. If we were to segment and isolate for a newly completed product and product at high prices per square foot, and then especially isolate for product that is single family home replacement that is not a condo hotel then, we see the market continuing up because there's no supply.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's funny. This whole broken telephone thing has been very entertaining to me because it's been going on for like two months now. It's amazing. It's like the same story. Just one of my friends on Twitter, Michael, he, said these stories always start when it gets cold in New York City. Always, they always start like these not rumors, but shady stories about when it starts getting cold in New York City because everyone gets depressed.
Speaker 1:And they're questioning life. Yeah yeah, they're like why am I not there? Oh, it sucks there. I don't want to be there anyway.
Speaker 2:Yeah, exactly so it's like that. And it's not just the news articles, it's people on Twitter and pundits or whatever it's always. Here's another one, for the A16Z recently got out of their lease on Miami Beach. That was not news. It was not news, it was not new and it was not a surprise to anyone. That office they got and literally no one ever used it. It was just there and it's in the. It's a Starwood right. That's the thing. So no one was there. It was based on crypto, like it was focused on crypto, and no one used it. So, of course, they're going to try and get out of the lease.
Speaker 2:And, on that same note, they never tried to interface with the local community. They did their own thing, like they never went to the, they never had a presence at any of the events, they never sponsored anything. Trust me, I do all the events. So I would know if. And they didn't. And the interesting thing is, they may have closed the office, but the people who16Z people who came to Miami are still here, the very high level executives and partners they're still here. May not have an office in Miami Beach anymore, but they're still here.
Speaker 1:Correct. Now on the topic of office, we had some really exciting news.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:We had the renderings for the Citadel headquarters released and then also Banco Santander. I don't know if I'm mispronouncing them. I don't know how to pronounce that name, but Santander, but they're going to demolish their existing structure and build a 44 one in its place. So it's two million square feet of office coming to Brickell in the next few years Class A which is astounding.
Speaker 2:Is that Citadel? And Combined.
Speaker 1:Combined it's about two million square feet of Class A office coming to Brickell in the relatively short-term future and that is huge and I think it's underappreciated.
Speaker 2:And I think also not including that is the new Key International building Not correct, not included in that, that's right.
Speaker 2:That's going to be there as well, and I believe there was there's one more somewhere in there. I'm missing it, but it's oh Swire. Oh, that's right, swire is a little iffy right now. It depends, but I think most of those will be built and I think they'll be leased up 830 Brickle set records, so I don't see any reason why they wouldn't. And we don't have a lot of class A or double class A, triple class A, whatever it is. We don't have a lot. We don't. I've said this before, but Miami, before the pandemic and still to this day, still is like a reverse downtown. We have more people living here than working here. It's one of the few cities that people commute out of to go to work in the suburbs, in Doral or whatever Most people. Like in LA or San Francisco, they commute into the city to work. Miami is reverse, so I find it interesting.
Speaker 1:It is super interesting.
Speaker 2:But yeah, and I mean, there's just so many projects like that. The Santander one is very well designed, it's beautiful.
Speaker 1:It's beautiful.
Speaker 2:I love the outdoor space in it. I think it's going to be something.
Speaker 1:Citadel HQ is beautiful also. Yeah, Really nice Great outdoor spaces really well-designed building.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and they also. They're using the parking across the street so they don't have to build a podium. So it's going to be like the offices come right down to the ground floor, which is nice, and there's going to be a wide baywalk.
Speaker 1:It's going to be it's really nice, really nice, really good integration with the neighborhood. Yeah, hotel component, that's right.
Speaker 2:So I don't know. I'm really bullish on that and I think Miami has a lot of room to grow in the office space in general.
Speaker 1:Hugely. Now the question is where will all those people live? I did a little deep dive into the Coral Gables and Coconut Grove single family home market this past week and they are so far out. It's probably some of the best performing sub markets in the region. Because that's that spillover. Where do people go?
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And the market is just tight. Price of the floor of the market keeps rising and it's going to be a challenge.
Speaker 2:Well, I don't think we've even seen it. Begin to seen it, because you have those people like Citadel coming in and Microsoft and those executives are going to have to live somewhere and they're going to want to live close in the roads. Coral Gables, south Miami oh, speaking of South Miami totally off topic but did you see the pictures from Sunset Place? Sunset Place, in case any of you people don't know, is a long dead mall. Long dead mall. It died way before COVID. I would say 2013, 10.
Speaker 2:One of the things about Sunset Place is it was built very much like a 1990s mall. It was all inward facing. There was basically no shops around the exterior. You had to take a car there. It was not like a 70s template of a mall and it never worked. It's actually one, two, three.
Speaker 2:I think it's the third redevelopment of that site in 60 years. There was a small shopping center there. They demolished something called the Bakery Center. That was only there for 10 years. They demolished it and they put Sunset Place and then Sunset Place lasted about 10 years as a fully fled shopping mall and it's always been the same. It's always because it's always been like a very inward facing, like self-contained mall. This new thing some really cool developers, architects called Heatherwick, I believe, is their thing. They're building it to integrate with the downtown Miami, South Miami streets so you feel like you can walk around, go to the external shops. It's really beautiful and there's going to be condos and hotel offices Fun. I'll put photos. I've learned how to do this. I learned how to put photos on afterwards.
Speaker 1:Amazing.
Speaker 2:So yeah.
Speaker 1:It'll be a whole transformation.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and I think South Miami finally realized that they had to do it because they had blocked previous redevelopments. They realized that they just it's going to kill the rest of downtown if they don't do something. So they're working with a developer to try and make it actually work.
Speaker 1:That's wonderful.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so lots of cool projects. Speaking of projects, I went to Wynwood last week and did a scooter tour of it.
Speaker 1:Oh, it was great.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it was fun. I had a blast. I just took my camera and glass my Ray-Ban glasses and went around and I spent about two hours and I didn't even get to see every project. I saw about 20 of them probably.
Speaker 1:Oh, my God.
Speaker 2:And I didn't come get to see every project. I saw about 20 of them probably, oh my God, and I didn't come close scratching the surface. There is so much happening in Wynwood, it just it boggles my brain and I find like new product every time. Oh, there's a new one, there's another one, so they're multiplying.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they're multiplying and I think it's good. Wynwood has a very particular product multifamily mostly designed for younger people. The places are smaller so they tend to be a little bit less costly. There's even some innovative ones where they rent by bedroom and short term. I think Wynwood is very good for that product.
Speaker 1:Agree, agree, and that's part of the fact that Miami's not afraid to build and the housing stock is filling in.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's a great thing. Yeah, I was having an argument with someone on Twitter last night and they were like it was at Sunset Place and they were complaining about the fact that there was going to be more condos at Sunset Place and I was just like we've had this conversation before and we tread over at the same time. It's just, people do not understand supply and demand.
Speaker 1:They just don't more supply is good for prices everyone yes, of any type yes, actually, oh so put it on the market.
Speaker 2:It takes pressure off, it increases, it's simple supply and demand yeah, I'm almost like tired of explaining it by now, because it's just I don't know, I don't get into twitter arguments.
Speaker 1:when someone is stupid on Twitter, I just have this button that goes off in my head and they cease to exist and I just put them away mentally.
Speaker 2:That's also a very Sagittarius move. We do that.
Speaker 1:I'm like, and this person no longer exists Done. I don't want to spend 10 seconds of my precious life talking to this waste of space. That's what I do.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's just. The math is very simple If you lost a lot of demand, the prices are going to go up. If supply does not meet that demand, price is going to go up higher. Yeah, of course, you add more supply, prices come down. It's literally that simple. And I just, you know another high rise that people can't afford. I'm like, well, all housing is housing.
Speaker 1:It takes pressure off the market. All housing is housing A thousand percent correct.
Speaker 2:And it doesn't matter if it's Section 8 or ultra luxury, no all housing is housing.
Speaker 1:It adds to the pool. Yeah, and there's tons of data, it's a real thing, yeah.
Speaker 2:And housing affordability is measured in decades.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:Like all, class A eventually ends up Class B or C, correct?
Speaker 1:Correct. That's how it works. And again, what's the stat we love to say is that Miami has more multifamily units under, and that is a great thing. That's like a round of applause for Miami. That's a great thing because it's accommodating the continued wealth and talent migration. We're building the city of the future.
Speaker 2:Oh, you want to touch on that story.
Speaker 1:Oh, yes, so I've been harping on the press getting things wrong. Well, kudos to the Wall Street Journal for accurately reporting on this data from the IRS, which quantifies the flow of what they call high-value tax earners, so people filing over $20,000 more per year and they had a story this last week called the brain drain, because the data was subdivided back in 2022 by the IRS to show age groups, and so this data showed that high-value millennials were moving in the largest quantities towards Florida. We're getting four times as many as number two, which is Texas and so the IRS doesn't do this every year who knows why, but in 2022, they provided. It's on the IRS website. You can look at it. It's not proprietary to the Wall Street Journal. It's been there for two years.
Speaker 1:I've been using it in presentations for the last two years. This data has been in all my slides for the last two years. When I spoke at Rock the Market, it was on my slide, so the Wall Street Journal had this article this week talking about it, but it was presented like they cited the data properly. It says 2022 IRS data but it was published almost like this new revelation.
Speaker 1:Oh my God, this brain drain coming to Florida and people are reposting like crazy. People are sending it to me hey, did you see this? And I'm like, yes, I've been incorporating this into every presentation I've given for the last two years. It is one of my main variables indicating why I believe in Long Miami, because it's a forward-looking metric that we're getting high-value young people who are moving here.
Speaker 2:The.
Speaker 1:Wall Street Journal did provide great branding. I have not called it a brain drain and I will do so from now on, because I'm speaking again next week and I will have this again in my presentation.
Speaker 2:What are you speaking on next week?
Speaker 1:It's a conference in downtown Miami and I just spoke to them and I forgot what it's called.
Speaker 2:Oh, okay, I'll put it up here. We'll put it up.
Speaker 1:Alas, I forget details named.
Speaker 2:You know ADHD, correct, we all have a piece of it.
Speaker 1:If I drove a car, it would be a disaster. I'd forget where I parked it. It wouldn't have gas. One month of driving calamities would cost me 10 years worth of Uber.
Speaker 2:It wouldn't change the oil.
Speaker 1:It's bad things. I would lose the car. I'd lose myself, I don't even know. Oh man, I'd be like Ryan, my car's not starting. Where are you? I don't know. That's what would happen. Wow, I love it. I. That's what would happen.
Speaker 2:Wow, I love it there's. I keep saying this and I feel like a broken record, but there's just so much happening still in Miami, so much and I feel like when the Fed started raising rates and all that, it really caused problems in other parts of the country, especially in the multifamilyfamily apartment sections anything below ultra luxury, like I. I was walking around that fifth and sixth street yesterday where six over the gale is, and all that. I was just standing there between okan tower, gale, my world center, the crosby downtown video from there.
Speaker 1:Right, I was in the video'm like what are all these projects here?
Speaker 2:It's just I was just saying that. I was like this is almost unbelievable about what's happening here. The street's going to be chaos for two years. That's going to be ridiculous, but it's. You're making something out of nothing and a huge variety of product levels, from ultra luxury to attainable to short term and hotel products, like all in like. Basically two blocks.
Speaker 1:Correct. It's pretty amazing.
Speaker 2:It's amazing.
Speaker 1:Every time I'm, every time I'm in the Gale and I stand on one of the amenity floors and I look out that window like the ninth floor, eighth floor, and I send Ryan a video every time. I'm like look at all of this and I take this video. We can put the video here. We put the video. Yeah, we'll put the video and you can see from a kind of a little mid bird's eye view all the activity there. It's astounding.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and that it's interesting because that is just one small section of it. In that Park West, my world center area, there is just that's my next tour I'm going to do. I'm going to do my World Center in Park West. There's so much happening there that they're building an actual city there. The population is that of a small city, it's pretty amazing.
Speaker 2:Then also on the other side, you have the 11 district. You have the three 11 towers Also, I was posting yesterday they're doing the project in Overtown proper, one West, 12th or 12th. That project to me is very interesting because Overtown proper, which is over the tracks that is the actual definition of it. Nothing has happened there beyond affordable, unattainable housing in about 20 years. This is the first luxury condo product that I know. 20 years, this is the first luxury condo product that I know and that is potentially interesting because once that sort of happens it'll be interesting what the rest of that unlocks.
Speaker 1:Agree, it keeps spreading.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and then also it looks like the Target and Aldi is getting ready to open on 5th and 6th by Brightline. So you're going to have groceries, you're going to have Target and you have to go back and look what this place looked like 15 years ago.
Speaker 1:Completely different. Is the answer yeah.
Speaker 2:Crime, drugs, you know.
Speaker 1:Like San Francisco today. Oops, oh, my God Let me stop.
Speaker 2:I couldn't help myself. Crime drugs. Well, on that topic, I saw a thing.
Speaker 1:Was there a poop map, though there wasn't.
Speaker 2:Yes, there was a poop map. There was a tweet that I saw about San Francisco and someone said San Francisco is like a city size. Wework with crimes and drugs.
Speaker 1:Oh, that's interesting.
Speaker 2:And you have to dig a little deeper into that, because what they meant was that the city has really nothing except for work.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:There's nothing there Right. San Francisco doesn't really even have a lot of culture left because it really got just overrun by the tech ecosystem at all. It doesn't really have culture.
Speaker 1:There's these articles recently about the movie industry departing Los Angeles.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:That's something. I think, it was in the press last week.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but also the guy on Twitter, the guy that always talks about development in LA.
Speaker 1:Moises? Oh, yes, yes, yes, is that his name Moises? Yes, I think so, something like that.
Speaker 2:He was saying that a lot of his friends who are in the production are Are leaving, yeah, that.
Speaker 2:That's what I'm saying when I keep talking about momentum cycles. These things are very hard to reverse because the underlying conditions causing them tend to permeate and to strengthen and tend to spread and it's just that internal disorder cycle and it doesn't just turn around, it's going to continue and I think it will just accelerate after the election, regardless of who wins's. Half the country. I know so, and that's what I've always said I've said this for years is that we are very lucky here that Miami is less affected by national politics To a point like I mean, we still have the same laws and rules as well, mostly other as the country, but we're just not affected.
Speaker 1:It seems less contentious here on a personal level. People don't get as mad about it.
Speaker 2:Well, people still get mad. But if we were on opposite ends of the spectrum we'd be like, okay, cool, we just won't talk about it.
Speaker 1:Right, that's what I mean. Yeah, it's less of a militant type thing here.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's okay cool you're on that. Maybe it's because there's so many Latin people here and people are more chill. I've never heard Latin friends as chill. I love them.
Speaker 1:No, you're right yeah.
Speaker 2:They're not chill.
Speaker 1:Because I grew up in New York and there's a different energy around politics there than there is here.
Speaker 2:Well, yeah, because New York has like a different kind of crazy Right, it's very much in your face, right, like a different kind of crazy Right, it's very much in your face, right. Listen, I grew up in the Northeast, not in New York City, but I understand that people in the Northeast are just aggressive in general. Right, they're just really aggressive. Here in Miami they're more energetic and I would say, like passionate. I think it's a different. I don't know, I wouldn't call people here in Miami aggressive, I would call them like passionate about whatever the thing is.
Speaker 2:Like they're very passionate. Whatever they're into, they're very passionate about it, but they don't tend to. At least people I know don't aren't aggressive and no one here really tries to change your mind either.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:If you're outside of some norm or outside their norm, they don't.
Speaker 1:That's what I meant. People are more chill about it that way. Yeah, it's less of a combative stance. Yes, yes.
Speaker 2:And I think we all it's healthier. I think I think it's also because Miami is an actual melting pot. It may be Latin or Caribbean-flavored, but it's an actual melting pot and there doesn't tend to be neighborhoods where everyone's all the same. There might be, like, more of a certain person from a different, certain country, but like everyone at least in downtown and Brickell where I hang out like it's just, it's so mixed. You have Cubans and Venezuelans and Brazilians and Colombians and Europeans and like everyone, just like all together. So it's, and I like that because it forces you to get along with everyone, because everyone's different from you.
Speaker 1:Correct.
Speaker 2:Like there there aren't many in my case aren't many gringos around, so so it's like I have to interface.
Speaker 1:Poor Ryan. He's the minority. It's so tragic.
Speaker 2:Oh dear. It's the only city in the whole country I can be a minority in. I'll probably get canceled for that, but anyways, but it's yeah. It forces you to get along with other people, or at least respect.
Speaker 1:Correct.
Speaker 2:Whatever the other person's thing is.
Speaker 1:Correct, you can't hide. You can't hide.
Speaker 2:So I don't know that Any projects that you're interested in right now.
Speaker 1:What do I like right now? I really like the St Regis in Brickell.
Speaker 2:Oh yes, I mentioned this last time. I'm a huge fan, yeah.
Speaker 1:The more I dig into it. I dig into the pipeline often across all of South Florida and it ties into my single family home thesis because I think that, as I keep saying, we can't add more inventory vertically when it comes to prime lots within proximity of the urban core and I think that product that is, a single family home replacement, especially within such proximity of the urban core, will really do well in the future as our 2 million plus square feet of office continue to fill in. We saw recently, like even the Apogee in South Beach, which was built in 2008. For those that know, it's in South Point Drive.
Speaker 2:It's one of the nicest ones.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's four units per floor. So it's four units per floor, so it's very much a single family home replacement product, not a condo hotel regular rental policy. Four units per floor, all pretty large and again, but nice building, but built in 2008. Things have changed since then. It would be a different product if it were built today.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And I recently traded at 3,500 a square foot. Yeah, I guess that didn't exist. That price point didn't exist. It quite literally didn't exist and I was like, wow. So when you start looking at the market and isolating for condos that are single family home replacements in essence, that's where you're seeing that high price per square foot outperformance, because people aren't finding houses and they're going to them.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and I think the St Regis is an interesting thing because it originally was proposed as two towers, I think during COVID, I think right during COVID, when they started, and then they realized that you had these people from Citadel, from wherever, coming down that wanted a single family replacement, right, and so they shrunk it down to one tower but blew up the size of the units.
Speaker 1:And it's only four per floor. Yeah, not a condo hotel, st Regis amenities, but without being a hotel Michelin, private Michelin restaurant there.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Marina, Like it's really good and I think that's going to do very well long-term. It's aligned delivery-wise with the delivery of all that office space.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I actually went and looked at it last week and they're demolishing the building that's there.
Speaker 1:That's right. Their old sales center was so beautiful. I visited their original sales center a few weeks before they demoed it and it was a thing of beauty, but it had to be demolished. It was on the site, but they got their construction financing. That was the news recently.
Speaker 2:Yeah, one of the largest.
Speaker 1:Like $450 million, I think.
Speaker 2:I think it was $500 million. Oh, was it yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, the $600 million by Mass Capital was larger, but that's about it.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah. And speaking of large projects, the Waldorf Astoria is very much vertical, it's on the second floor.
Speaker 1:That's right.
Speaker 2:I don't know if people ever is actually going to happen. I understand it's a large building and on a very small lot so it requires a lot of site work. But yeah, it's very much vertical out of the ground.
Speaker 1:It's pretty awesome.
Speaker 2:So is Elkin Tower, and so is Mercedes-Benz places. All of them are out of the ground.
Speaker 1:Super fast.
Speaker 2:And I think almost all three of them are considered super tall. So we're going from zero super tall to three in three to four years, Of course we're capped by aviation requirements to 1,043 feet.
Speaker 1:I know, I know the airport's right there. What can we do? 1,043 feet is the max.
Speaker 2:I think that's the price we pay for a convenient airport.
Speaker 1:I'll take it any day.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:I grew up in New York City. Every time I go to the airport here, it never gets old. It never gets old. Every time I'm like wow, that was so easy. I'm always amazed. It takes me 20 minutes to get to the airport from my house, no matter what.
Speaker 2:I can do it. If there's no traffic on the Dolphin, I can do it in like 15.
Speaker 1:Yeah, because it's a causeway, and that's it. Growing up in New York City, you're always traumatized by JFK or Newark. It's like Dante's Inferno it adds a whole.
Speaker 2:Didn't they just connect it to rail or transit, to like just recently?
Speaker 1:I don't know, like the air train, I don't know, probably never, existed. So if it exists, it's recent and also you.
Speaker 2:You, if you want to. You can take the Metro rail there in a half an hour for $2.
Speaker 1:That's amazing.
Speaker 2:It's just it's, and then TriRail goes there, amtrak is right there. It's actually one of the best connected airports, probably in the united states, and it keeps growing. Yeah, oh, I just saw. I don't know where it was from, but I think, if I were to go damn it.
Speaker 1:I don't know where it went, but there was a new middle eastern airlines. They keep adding airlines. They were breaking record. We have record cumulative traffic growth, far exceeding pre-covid. I think we have the most direct international flights of any airport in america yeah so it it's really, it's popping.
Speaker 2:I just I wish they would just fix the actual airport. It's not by any means or any measure. It's not a well-maintained or modern airport, it's just not. There are a lot of good things about MIA, but that is not one of them. There's a every week, there's a only in date something smoke or liquid or whatever but it's that.
Speaker 1:That's the I saw an article the other week about an airport in japan that in 30 years times time has never lost a piece of luggage yeah, they are japanese, we are not japanese are crazy like that.
Speaker 2:I think I read a story a couple of months ago or weeks ago that a train departed early by two seconds and then they issued like an apology for it like wow sorry um, also speaking of trains and really not affecting miami, but it's a part of it.
Speaker 2:So bright line now runs to orlando and they have been steadily adding stations along the way and their newest station was going to be in stewart, florida, which is on the treasure coast. There's a little bit of a backstory there and I'll make it as short as I can. But basically, when Brightline was being built, the Treasure Coast tried to sue Brightline out of existence. I called them the flyover counties Sorry, but it's true and they literally took it to federal court to try and get Brightline to not exist. Fast forward to now. The connection to Orlando is up and running and now that they definitely want it, yesterday the stewart city commission just they had to agree with brightline. They signed it in august and then yesterday they decided to back out of it. I think that's going to they're going to regret that majorly because another city in the treasure coast will easily pick it up and take it from there. But just I don't know and you always say that politicians don't I know what's your line of.
Speaker 1:Oh, they're not necessarily aligned with the long-term prosperity of their jurisdictions. Their main objective is to get reelected and stay in power.
Speaker 2:That part sorry, and it was the whole thing was like it was going to cough in $60 million from the city's part of it and I think it would have been reduced with grants and all that. But it's just $60 million versus the impact financial impact that would have had on the city. Overall it would have been like 100x or more.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:Easily.
Speaker 1:Right, exactly there you go my theory holds, politicians are incentivized to care about their short-term upside rather than the long-term prosperity of their jurisdictions. That is always the case, so keep that in mind, everyone, when you watch the presidential elections.
Speaker 2:The debate.
Speaker 1:Rather, that's always the case, so keep that in mind, everyone, when you watch the presidential elections or the debate rather yes, that's tonight. Oh my God, what a freak show that's going to be. I'm shocked.
Speaker 2:I can't watch those live because it gives me an anxiety Like I have to watch the clips afterwards.
Speaker 1:Yeah, someone invited me to watch it with them so in company, I can tolerate the trauma Alone.
Speaker 1:Oh yeah, you just can't. It just makes me sad because, again, I always preface these political comments by saying I'm a registered independent and I dislike both parties. I'm very much pragmatic when it comes to my politics, but when I watch these debates it makes me sad because I feel like the candidates, as well as the sitting president, are reflections of where the nation is in terms, again, of its internal disorder structure, the polarization of wealth, gap, belief systems. Just the internal disorder structure, which is polarization, is a huge part of it. And that's just where we are as a country and it's this model where candidates, presidents, are going to be tried for crimes, convicted of crimes, or kids are going to commit crimes. We're on this Latin American model, no offense, latin American model, but you guys know what I mean. That's why many of you fled and we're on it and I just I see it when I see these debates and it makes me sad because it's a reflection of the state of the country.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I just try and ignore it as much as I possibly can, because it's just, it's all stupid and none of it. Like I said, because of where we live, none of it really matters that much.
Speaker 1:Luckily, so I think that Florida wins either way.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it does To tell you the truth, because, regardless of who wins, well, point number one, as I said, is that the Biden presidency should make it abundantly clear that the seat of the president has no power because clearly he's not managing anything. Yeah, so okay, like that, it is what it is. And then we have candidates who have, who are not even senile, but speak worse than him, yeah. And so you got to wonder, you're like, okay, can it get any more obvious that the president is just some talking, in most cases, just a talking puppet of who's going to read the teleprompter correctly? And so, regardless of who wins, the country's polarization and the migration of taxpayers from high tax states that are blue states, that were heavy lockdown I don't see that reversing. And you can make a case that it would accelerate regardless of who wins. So I don't see that reversing. So I don't think that Florida will be as affected as other places.
Speaker 2:And I think we're going to continue to build here. We like building things and that's where a lot of our GDP comes from as a state, because we don't have an income tax. So when we build, it makes the state money, it makes everyone else money. I think that's also. People have to realize that us not having an income tax is a direct reflection of that of being a developer, a build friendly state. Correct, correct, agreed. It wouldn't work otherwise.
Speaker 1:Agreed. So yeah, there's just so much happening if trump said if he wins, he's going to appoint elon musk, as that was the official title. I forgot what it's called, but elon was tweeting this he'll go in there in some capacity and eliminate government waste, like how he fired 90 of twitter, and it still runs. Heaven help us all. Wouldn't that be fantastic? Yeah, I'm a fan of that it'd be like the argentinian.
Speaker 2:I'm a huge fan of that. It'd be like the Argentinian style.
Speaker 1:I'm a huge fan of that. All the government is just a giant corrupt money laundering mechanism. Like truly, you have career politicians on both sides in there for decades. They have no accountability. And it's clearly what are they doing? Like where does money go? Nobody knows. And it's like how California literally stopped reporting on how they're spending money they take for homeless programs. Yeah, literally stop reporting on how they're spending money they take for homeless programs. They just stop reporting it where the money goes. The country does that at a larger scale and there's no accountability.
Speaker 1:Nobody cares and it's just incredible. So somebody go through that and actually cut the less. I would rather burn money than give it to the federal government. At least when you burn it, it's going to generate heat and potentially warm your house. It'll do something.
Speaker 2:Did it in Germany after when they had this hyperinflation.
Speaker 1:There's a story that when Escobar was Pablo Escobar, the famous drug cartel leader of Columbia, who at one point was sitting on many billions of dollars of paper cash, he had a rot rate of how much of it was burning every month, crumbling every month.
Speaker 1:He had an actual rot rate for the paper currency and it was the many millions of dollars. And there's a story at one point when he was fleeing people trying to catch him and he was with his daughter at the time. They were in some place in the caves or wherever they were in the outdoors in Colombia and he was burning wads of cash to generate heat so that they wouldn't freeze at night. That's what I would do, rather than give it to the federal government do, rather than give it to the federal government.
Speaker 2:I'm dead, oh boy. Yeah it's, I don't know. I I think most government, most government, is inept.
Speaker 1:It's just the levels of ineptity um, we're at the phase of the empire, where the levels of ineptitude are just going to keep growing unless there is a drastic reversal yeah like firing 90 of them yeah, and that's where I tend to focus on what I have right here in front of me, correct?
Speaker 2:It's like I just I can't fix America, I can't fix Florida. I can maybe work on fixing my neighborhood.
Speaker 1:Correct a thousand percent, and that's why I always tell people not to get upset about these things, because you getting upset or anxious doesn't actually change anything or solve anything. It is what it is, emp. Upset or anxious doesn't actually change anything or solve anything. It is what it is. Empires have cycles. That's a cycle that we're on right now, and the best we can do is to try to be in a place that is on some type of ascent that is, relatively and honestly, this is the best time to be alive, so I'm not even complaining when people complain. Would you choose to live 50 years ago? I would not. Would you choose to live a hundred years ago? I?
Speaker 2:would not. I think 50 years ago you wouldn't be allowed to have a credit card.
Speaker 1:Correct. There are all sorts of weird laws I know Correct and we forget what segregation was.
Speaker 2:When.
Speaker 1:Muhammad Ali trained in South Beach at the 50 gym he had to go stay in Overtown at Heritage House. What is it called that hotel? It's still there. They have a whole room where he stayed and Malcolm X stayed, so he couldn't stay when Sammy Davis Jr played blue eyes.
Speaker 2:Frank Sinatra yes.
Speaker 1:Sinatra would stand up for them and get mad and say that they had to sit in the dining room. They wouldn't let them in the dining room or go through the main doors while they were the main performers. This was not that long ago. Ali had to cross the bridge to sleep.
Speaker 2:Well, it's also. They also had Virginia Key used to be like where they were black people would have to go to the beach. They were not allowed to be in my beach.
Speaker 1:This is not long ago. There are people living today who remember those times. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Also, this is fun, not that part, but I saw a photo. You sent me a photo, I think, of girls wearing bikinis in my beach in the 50s and people were like picketing them. Oh, yes, that photo they went to hell for wearing this bikini.
Speaker 1:They were either picketing them or the cop was there trying to scope them out, and get a phone number.
Speaker 2:It's not clear what was happening.
Speaker 1:But yeah, they were wearing what we would consider modest bikinis that you don't see in South Beach anymore.
Speaker 2:Yeah, a bikini then was like a one piece, it covered you.
Speaker 1:Amazing. Living in Miami for a long period of time distorts one's conception of what an appropriate bikini is.
Speaker 2:Living in Miami distorts your thoughts on a lot of things. This is true. I've said this before, but I'm happy to reiterate it. I just forget that people in the United States are not attractive normally. You're so right, and I'm not saying that to be mean.
Speaker 1:No, no, no, I'm just saying like From a health level, forget subjectivity. From a health level, and just an objective.
Speaker 2:Look, people are not attractive. You're here and the garbage man is like a 10. The cops, or your valet person or your waitress is. Here's a story. There was this I went to a restaurant on South Beach it's Barcelona. Spanish is very good.
Speaker 1:By Sunset Harbor.
Speaker 2:yeah, yes, and the waiter there. I forget his name at the moment Ruben Ruben. He looks like a Spanish telenovela star and he was also in one of those little waiter things and the shirt was literally busting at the seams like how mine was last week Right, right, right. Yes, people, I got it. I wore the wrong shirt last week um too much man cleavage.
Speaker 2:Well listen, I'm a big boy, it's fine, it's fine, but I'm just saying I, oh, my god, I have so many focus I'm trying to not abd, but I've realized that a lot more people watch this podcast than I thought, because people who I don't talk to on a normal basis tell you about it texted me and they're like Ryan needs to wear a different shirt that's fantastic. I was like okay, thanks haters?
Speaker 1:well, not haters.
Speaker 2:I get it like it's fine. It was the wrong shirt, but I'm saying people who I don't talk to on a normal basis it means they're watching.
Speaker 2:It means they're watching fantastic so I was like, okay, anyways, back to this. Another story this waiter on my beach is perfect, just like a spanish ken doll. And he's a waiter on my beach. And I went to instagram like maybe he has an? Only fans, maybe what? No, he's just a waiter, wow. And I was just like, and he does modeling and stuff. But I was just like that's just wild to me.
Speaker 1:So God bless Miami.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I love it. It's also a problem because when hot people are always around you, it's like looking at the sun. Your eyes can't rest anywhere Like you, just can't rest on a normal average person.
Speaker 1:This is the problems of Ryan's life. He has overstimulus. It is. Where do I look?
Speaker 2:Where do I look? It's true Like I don't. I understand why there's so many, why Miami has a reputation of like cheaters and stuff, because it's like they're just it's everywhere you look like you can't escape it. If you were in a married relationship, you're just going to be bombarded by insanely hot people all the time.
Speaker 1:It's a hard life.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it is a hard life. Anything else you'd like to add? That's it, that's it okay. Yeah, I think for me it's just like we're just going to continue to see this. I think with the fed cutting rates, you might actually see some more, some more projects popping off yeah, and it'll help our affordability.
Speaker 1:That's what I'm most optimistic on is cutting rates might free up inventory at the lower segments, especially the single family home market, that have all but disappeared.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And that's a very good thing.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and I think also it's going to be interesting to see I was reading a story today that the governor was saying that the legislation needs to do something about these condo problems.
Speaker 1:I saw that some type of relief, and I don't know.
Speaker 2:I don't know either. We've talked about this before. A bit too much time on it, but I don't think there is a solution. There's no magic band-aid, there's no magic, and it truly is the fault of these HOAs for kicking it down the road. There is no one else to blame but the HOAs and the owners that are there. 100%, that's it, and even if the people bought in later, it was there. When you're buying something, it's your job to do due diligence.
Speaker 2:Correct these things are not a secret. No At all. It's all given to you and you should ask for it. It's all given to you, especially if you're financing.
Speaker 1:And if you go to look at some of these buildings like it's not even visually hidden.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you can see the cracking and spalling and rust so come on guys.
Speaker 2:It's not a secret, no, so I just I don't think the governor the governor can suggest all he wants, but I don't think the legislation is going to move, and so I think I've said this before I don't have any financial interest in older condos, but it's going to be an insane thing to watch because you're going to watch all these condos have to terminate or sell at the almost exact same moment. Correct, and it's going to be a mess. Agree, it's going to be a field day for developers. I hope developers are lining up the money now to buy these land, because they're going to have their pick of it.
Speaker 1:Agree, it'll be interesting to see, yeah, so all right guys.
Speaker 2:Thank you for watching, and I think it's going to be a good fall.
Speaker 1:I agree no-transcript.
